Simon goes through the waiver wire for Week 4
It’s a mad rush on the waiver wire for rookie running back De’Von Achane this week after his 51.3-point fantasy performance in Week 3. While Achane highlights this week’s waiver wire group, he’s not the only player worth adding. Let’s navigate who should make the cut and who should be left on the wire for your leaguemates.
I’ll be adding something new in this week’s column called “Luxury Adds.” These players are for fantasy managers who find themselves with an extra bench slot. You likely won’t want to start these players right away, for a multitude of different reasons, but they have some sort of upside that makes them worth holding on your team before their value (potentially) skyrockets.
Quentin Johnston (51% Rostered), Joshua Palmer (5% Rostered)
While Mike Williams has been second fiddle to Keenan Allen, there has been plenty to go around in offensive coordinator Kellen Moore’s Charger offense. Quentin Johnston is the preferred pickup, if only because Joshua Palmer is who Joshua Palmer is. The 60+ yards and a scare is Palmer’s ceiling, and Williams being out for the season doesn’t do much to his role.
Johnston profiles as the big bodied wide receiver to step into the Williams role. We haven’t seen the rookie do much with his limited opportunities, but rookie wide receivers, especially ones behind such established veterans as Allen and Williams, can require something external (like an injury) to present an opportunity.
Tank Dell (48% Rostered)
The Texans rookie is back in the column after his best fantasy outing coming off a week where rookie QB CJ Stroud was in an “arm management plan.” Even with the pass volume dropping significantly in Week 3 – from 47 attempts in Week 2 to 30 in Week 3 – Dell still had five receptions for 145 yards and a touchdown on seven targets.
This makes two games in a row where Dell has out-targeted all other Texan receivers. He’s establishing himself as the preferred target for a young quarterback in the midst of a breakout rookie campaign. Add Dell now or your league mates surely will.
Adam Thielen (58% Rostered)
After a dismal Week 1, Thielen has found himself a role in this Panthers’ offense. Thielen has seen 14 and nine9 targets in his last two games respectively and has turned it into fantasy production, finishing as the PPR WR3 in Week 3. While I don’t have much confidence in an aging Thielen, I also don’t have much confidence in Terrace Marshall, Jonathan Mingo, or Laviska Shenault.
If Thielen can threaten double-digit targets in a week, he’s worth picking up. Don’t expect what we saw from him in Week 3, but WR3 numbers aren’t out of the question.
Zay Jones (52% Rostered)
After missing Week 3 with an injury, Jones returns to the column. While Christian Kirk has looked great in his absence, let’s not forget what this depth chart looked like throughout preseason and Week 1. Jones looked like a focal point in preseason and out snapped Kirk in Week 1. While that is a limited sample size, it’s significant enough to warrant adding Jones before he’s back from injury.
Luxury Adds
De’Von Achane (46% Rostered)
We’re three weeks into the season and Achane is the RB7 after only scoring a combined 1.9 fantasy points in the first two weeks. There are rookie breakouts and then there’s what we watched happen this weekend.
Achane turned 18 carries into 203 rushing yards and looked explosive. He also turned four targets into four receptions for 30 yards. That alone would have been a great breakout for Achane, but he also scored four touchdowns – two through the air and two on the ground.
It’s not often a player this explosive, with this much opportunity, on an offense this good is sitting on the waiver wire. Blow your FAAB and add Achane now. While we can’t call for 50-point performances every week (or anywhere close), the talent and opportunity line up perfectly for a great fantasy season.
Roschon Johnson (59% Rostered)
Roschon is back in the column and that’s because he’s good and the Bears have been such a dumpster fire that it’s gone unnoticed by quite a few. Roschon’s Week 3 was uninspiring, but he also faced a negative game script after going down big early to the Kansas City Chiefs.
The Bears are struggling, and Johnson has been one of the few bright spots. I don’t expect him to be handed the job from Khalil Herbert, but as the season progresses Johnson should take over as the primary back. He’s the better playmaker and the Bears desperately need playmakers.
Ezekiel Elliot (51% Rostered)
Zeke’s demise was greatly exaggerated. For all of the Tony Pollard truthers out there dancing on the grave of Zeke’s fantasy value after Week 2, it’s time to reevaluate. While Rhamondre will be the primary back for the Steelers, Zeke carried the ball 16 times against the Jets this weekend and was more efficient with his carries than Stevenson.
This will be a split backfield but Zeke still has some juice left and the Patriots look willing to give him the touches.
Luxury Adds
Jake Ferguson (34% Rostered)
Cowboys Nation is in shambles after their shocking loss to the “Tanking for Caleb” Cardinals. On the bright side, Cowboys fans should be excited about the emergence of second-year TE Jake Ferguson establishing rapport with Dak Prescott.
Ferguson has seen 7 targets in two of three games this season. At a position as volatile as tight end, that volume is enough to make Ferguson startable most weeks. But maybe not this week, however – he’s got a killer matchup against a Patriots team that has been shutting down TEs.
Luke Musgrave (24% Rostered)
After a promising start for a rookie tight end through the first two weeks, we saw it come together a bit more for Ferguson on Sunday. Musgrave hauled in 6 of his 8 targets for 49 yards, good for 10.90 PPR fantasy points.
After being the lead target in week 3 for Jordan Love, Musgrave appears to be establishing himself as a weekly starter at the position. It will likely take more time for Musgrave and Love to further develop that connection we’re seeing, but this much early production from a rookie tight end is a great sign.
Luxury Adds
He did it again, even with a so-called “arm management plan,” and is looking like the best rookie QB thus far. With Nico Collins, Tank Dell, and Robert Woods all showing up as weapons for Stroud, expect the 20-plus point performances to continue.
High passing volume, expected negative game scripts, and all the talent in the world. What more do you want?
Russell Wilson (52% Rostered)
While the Broncos may be even worse under Sean Payton than they were with Nathaniel Hackett, Wilson has quietly put together a solid first three weeks.
This offense will likely continue to struggle, but Wilson has put up back-to-back 300-yard performances. If you’re looking for a fill-in QB for Week 4, Wilson is currently a top 10 QB likely sitting on your waiver wire.
Luxury Adds
Jameis Winston (2% Rostered)
The top stack options from FanDuel and DraftKings
Daniel Jones won somebody a million dollars. Let me repeat that. DANIEL JONES WON SOMEBODY A MILLION DOLLARS. The winner of the DraftKings Week 2 Milly Maker was all about that Giants stack. Daniel Jones, Saquon Barkley, and Darren Waller helped one astute player take home a cool mil.
While I don’t recommend playing Daniel Jones on Thursday against the buzzsaw that is the 49ers defense, we will find this week’s Daniel Jones among the other matchups. Maybe another struggling QB with a good matchup? (Spoiler alert: It’s Deshaun Watson)
How do you not keep going back to Tua and this Dolphins offense? And this Broncos defense that just allowed Sam Howell to throw for nearly 300 yards (299 Sam? Really? This argument would have sounded so much better if I could just say 300).
With Surtain expected to shadow Tyreek Hill most of the night, it makes sense to pivot to the less played option in Jaylen Waddle. It’s been the Tyreek Hill show so far this season, but Waddle isn’t going to just fade into the background. There are big games ahead for both players, but I’ll take the big discount opposite the Surtain matchup this week.
While not projected to be the highest scoring matchup of the week, this game has sneaky DFS upside. Houston has been having CJ Stroud do his best “Joe Flacco on the Jets” impression, throwing the ball on average 45+ times per game through the first two weeks of the season. I expect Jacksonville to go up early which means we could see another high-volume passing game from the Houston Texans.
There are three receivers on the Houston Texans that all have an argument to be started each week. Nico Collins is the WR1 here in Houston, but Robert Woods and Tank Dell both out snapped him this past week. The Fantasy Sports Logic Contrarian Edge Optimizer loves the Stroud stack. Get contrarian by playing Robert Woods and hope for another 47-pass attempt game from Stroud.
The Browns lost star running back and offense focal point Nick Chubb to a season-ending injury Monday night. With Jerome Ford (and Kareem Hunt) taking over, the Browns welcome the league’s best run defense through two weeks to Cleveland.
The Titans have been tough to beat on the ground, but they’ve been very beatable through the air, seeing both Derek Carr and Justin Herbert throw for over 300 yards (exactly 305 for both of them). This Browns offense is going to have to throw the ball more with Chubb out for the year, and this Titans defense is going to expedite that process.
Amari Cooper has been Watson’s favorite target so far this season and I expect Watson to lean heavier on Cooper in this Chubb-less Browns’ offense.
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Simon breaks down the best pickup possibilities
Data, Data, Data. After an entire offseason of looking at the same data, we’re two weeks into the slow trickle of new data that is the NFL season. With each passing week, the picture becomes clearer. At this point, there is still ample uncertainty. And that means opportunity for the savvy fantasy football player on the waiver wire.
Who is the Giants’ preferred backup running back? Will the Browns bring in somebody else with Nick Chubb injured? Is CJ Stroud the real deal!? If we can predict these outcomes accurately, we’ll have a leg up on our league mates heading into Week 3.
Nico Collins, Texans (55% Rostered), Tank Dell, Texans (20% Rostered)
Stroud was lauded by many as the most “pro-ready” QB in this class (and the best overall QB by a smaller group). Through two weeks, he might be proving them right. The Texans have unleashed Stroud in the passing game, allowing him to throw the ball 44 times in week 1 and 47 times in Week 2.
Dell and Collins have become favorite targets of this rookie QB. Both scored in Week 2, and if this pass volume remains this high, both are worthwhile adds.
Rashid Shaheed, Saints (46% Rostered)
Shaheed is proving to be Derek Carr’s preferred big play threat and a consistent part of the New Orleans passing game. While Shaheed did not find the end zone in Week 2 like he did in Week 1, he still caught 4 passes for 63 yards. Shaheed has weekly startability given his usage through two weeks. While not likely to be the most consistent, his big play ability makes him a TD threat every week.
Tutu Atwell, Rams (32% Rostered)
Speaking of big play receivers, the Rams have found their answer at that position. I know Puka Nacua is soooo hot right now, but don’t forget about Atwell as a viable option. Tutu was on the field for 94% of the Rams snaps this past week and has been targeted 17 times this season. The attention being heaped onto Puka is deserved, but the value on the waiver wire may be in his teammate Tutu.
Marvin Mims, Broncos (21% Rostered)
Mims is a stash play if you have extra room. He’s a big play receiver and showcased that in Week 2 with 2 receptions for 113 yards and a TD. However, Mims isn’t on the field nearly enough (only 24% of Broncos’ snaps in Week 2) to be a consistent weekly starter. The early success is promising, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see his role grow. If you have bench space, add him now and wait.
Jerome Ford, Browns (15% Rostered)
After suffering a knee injury Monday night, Chubb’s season is over. The next man up for Cleveland is 2022 5th-round draft pick Jerome Ford. After Chubb went down, Ford had 16 for 106 yards, including a 69-yarder that showcased his playmaking ability. While Cleveland may add someone to the RB room (cough Kareem Hunt cough), Ford will likely remain RB1.
Kareem Hunt, unsigned (23%)
With Chubb gone, the Browns could be in the market for a veteran RB with familiarity of the offense. While I expect Ford to be the lead back even if Hunt signs, this will likely be an RB-by-committee, so Hunt will command fantasy value in the Browns’ run\heavy offense.
Roschon Johnson, Bears (50% Rostered)
While Johnson didn’t outsnap Khalil Herbert in Week 2 like he did in Week 1, he still saw significant playing time and was more efficient with the work he was given. D’Onta Foreman being a healthy scratch in Week 2 is a good sign for Johnson’s role in this offense. While Herbert is the 1A for the time being, expect that to switch Johnson in coming weeks.
Tony Jones Jr., Saints (0% Rostered)
With Jamaal Williams going down Monday Night, Kendre Miller dealing with a hamstring injury, and Alvin Kamara still serving 1 more game on his 3-game suspension, that leaves Jones Jr. all but alone in the RB room.
Jones scored two touchdowns Monday and should be RB1 if the injury situation doesn’t improve. That said, his upside is extremely limited. Kamara is only out for one more week and while not a running back, expect Taysom Hill to steal some work from Jones Jr. as well.
Matt Breida, Giants (3% Rostered), Gary Brightwell, Giants (0% Rostered)
Saquon Barkley is out three weeks with an ankle sprain, meaning a lot of uncertainty about who will carry the ball for the Giants. Breida is the veteran presence, and Brightwell is the 3rd-year back who has shown rare flash on special teams. While neither is particularly exciting -- especially with a matchup against the 49ers’ defense on TNF -- I’d prioritize Breida as he appears the most likely to take over as the primary back.
Taysom Hill, Saints (15% Rostered)
With RBs Williams and Miller injured, and Kamara having to serve one more game in his 3 game suspension, tight end Hill had 9 carries Monday against the Panthers. Given the current RB situation, expect Hill to remain involved in multiple ways in this offense. Given that 8-10 PPR points is all that’s needed to be a top 12 TE most weeks, Hill is a worthwhile add.
Baker Mayfield, Buccaneers (19% Rostered)
The butt of many offseason jokes and the sworn enemy of Kyle Trask Truthers, Baker Mayfield has looked good for the Buccaneers – throwing for 490 yards, 3 TDs, and no interceptions. The next game is against the vaunted Philly defense, but Mayfield remains stream able and his pass catching options (especially Mike Evans) remain must starts.
CJ Stroud (24% Rostered)
I sang his praises at the beginning of this article when making the case to pick up both of the rookie QB’s receiving options – Tank Dell and Nico Collins. Stroud is slinging it through the first two weeks – 91 attempts for 626 yards, 2 TDs, and no interceptions. The Texans will likely be trailing at lot this season and that will lead to more positive game scripts for Stroud and his receivers.
Three games headline Week 2 stack highlights
Tua and Tyreek headlined Week 1 in the high scoring affair against the Chargers, but who will be the duo or trio to rack it up in Week 2? Each week we will explore the best stack options for you to bring down that GPP.
Week 1 went about as poorly as you could have written it up for this duo, but it’s redemption time, baby! Higgins had zero fantasy points off eight targets from Burrow. Going against an already-beat up Ravens secondary provides the perfect opportunity for a bounce-back.
The Bengals are slightly favored, but I think the Ravens keep it close. If you’re feeling feisty, Zay Flowers’ salary is only $5000 on Draftkings ($6600 on FanDuel) to grab a piece on the other side of this game.
With projected ownership of Herbert at 1.3% this week on FanDuel (8.8% on DraftKings), you can get contrarian without getting crazy. Shoutout to Fantasy Sports Logic’s Contrarian Edge Optimizer for identifying this anomaly in ownership percentage for what I view as one of the best stacks of the weekend.
The Titans may look scary up front, but that fear dissipates when you look at their weak secondary. With RB Austin Ekeler banged up, the Chargers are likely to depend on Justin Herbert’s arm more than usual. Add in the struggles the Titans have against the pass and we have ourselves a recipe for points galore.
Sitting at a 51.5 total, this is “the game of the week”, like the Dolphins-Chargers was last week. Sometimes you don’t have to get too creative when looking for a stack, the creativity can come elsewhere in your lineup.
We have a game with the highest projected point total of the week, a discount on Trevor Lawrence compared to other top pass catching options, and one week of evidence that Ridley IS THAT DUDE still. Throw Kelce in there and find some contrarian plays to fill out the rest of your lineup.
Fantasy Fire & Ice Video: Simon, Stu and Terrell break down great rostering possibilities
The first week of the NFL regular season is in the books, so you've got a sample size, albeit a very small one. But this is a great chance to find that golden nugget on the waiver wire that could carry you to your fantasy league championship.
In the video below, Sportstopia's Simon Groenevld, Terrell Furman and Stu 'Monotone' Durst talk about some great possibilities to add to your roster for Week 2 on the waiver run. They also break down the wild Bills-Jets game on Monday Night Football.
Getting clarity on QBs, RBs, WRs, TEs after a wild Week 1
The waiver run after Week 1 of the NFL season can be the most important for your fantasy team, but be careful not to overreact. This waiver run is where you may have picked up Cordarrelle Patterson or Phillip Lindsay on the way to a championship in past years, but it also is where you may have dropped 50 percent of your FAAB on Marquez Callaway on the way to a 6th-place finish.
If you correctly read the tea leaves, the outcome can be winning your league. There’s a lot of fool’s gold out there though, so let’s find our way through it.
Puka Nacua, Rams (10% Rostered)
With Cooper Kupp on IR, many expected Van Jefferson or even Tyler Higbee to be heavily targeted in the Rams’ Week 1 matchup against the Seahawks. In walks fifth-round pick Nacua to establish himself as the team’s top option in Kupp’s absence.
While we try not to overreact, don’t underreact either to 15 targets, 10 receptions, and 119 yards. That’s 21.9 PPR fantasy points without a touchdown. Nacua should be rostered in all leagues.
Zay Jones, Jaguars (37% Rostered)
Say hello to Jacksonville’s WR2. There was motion around him in the WR room this offseason with the addition of Calvin Ridley, but this seems to have had more of an impact on teammate Christian Kirk than it did on Jones.
While I fully expect $20 million man Christian Kirk and tight end Evan Engram to have their games, Jones appears to be a core part of this ascending Jaguars offensive game plan.
Jakobi Meyers, Raiders (51% Rostered)
Meyers took every comment from every analyst calling him ‘boring’ or ‘just a guy’ and hung them in his locker heading into this game. He showed up with two touchdowns and out-targeted teammate Davante Adams.
Meyers appears to be an integral part of this team and a favorite of new Raiders QB Jimmy Garoppolo. While his Week 2 status is up in the air because of a potential concussion. He’s still worth adding as Jimmy G’s slot guy, so you just might have to wait a week.
Kendrick Bourne, Patriots (2% Rostered)
Eleven targets on a team with an unclear wide receiver pecking order? Sign me up. While Bourne seems like a boring roster clogging type of player to add, I’m throwing away everything we saw from the New England offense last year when Matt Patricia was calling plays, and that includes Bourne’s usage last season.
Bourne may be establishing himself as Mac Jones' favorite target. But Bourne will probably just be a contributor in an offense that infuriates fantasy managers and spreads the ball around (think a way less fun version of the Chiefs).
That being said, the Patriots head to Miami next weekend and I want the player who appears to be the odds on favorite as the top target for this team heading into what could be a shootout.
Rashee Rice, Chiefs (53% Rostered)
Check your waiver wire to see if this rookie is there. I’m not comfortable starting him this upcoming week (or any Chiefs’ wide receiver really) but there were signs Thursday night that Rice could separate himself as the No. 1 as the season progresses. If there’s evidence that a wide receiver could become a favorite target of Patrick Mahomes, you roster him.
Kyren Williams, Rams (6% Rostered)
Cam Akers had 22 carries to Kyren Williams’ 15, but in every other statistical category Williams had him beat. I don’t know what happened to the Akers we saw at the end of last season, but this is looking like a split backfield at best.
If the level of play from these two backs is similar in the coming weeks, I’d expect more and more of a shift toward Williams. Be wary of starting him next week against a solid 49ers defense.
Joshua Kelley (7% Rostered)
High. Value. Backup. Kelley’s 16 carries, 91 yards, and a TD this week communicated that not only is he the backup to roster behind Austin Ekeler, but he also has weekly startability as a flex play. There isn’t any real upside to Kelley – all of that belongs to his friend Ekeler, weekly fantasy production with the upside of filling in if there is an injury in front of him makes him a must add.
Tyler Allgeier, Falcons (57% Rostered)
Avert your eyes, Kyle Pitts and Drake London fans, because this Falcons’ offense is all about the run. Key beneficiary? Last year’s quietest 1,000-yard rusher, Allgeier. While he won’t outcarry Bijan Robinson much longer, he should have a continued role in this VERY rush heavy offense.
Similar to Kelley, the upside is capped because Bijan is holding onto most of it. But also similar to Kelley, Allgeier has weekly stand alone value and is a high value backup to Robinson.
Gus Edwards, Ravens (20% Rostered) /Justice Hill / Melvin Gordon
Edwards ‘should’ be the lead back in this Ravens offense with the unfortunate season ending injury to JK Dobbins in Week 1, but what we saw this weekend doesn’t necessarily support that. The Ravens split carries evenly between backs Edwards and Hill, with the goal line work confusingly going to Hill.
Of the backs here, I like Edwards. His career Yards Per Attempt is over 5 and he has the build to be the goalline back. Let your league mates bid up Hill on the waiver wire and snag the true lead back in Edwards.
It’s not a bad idea to throw a waiver claim on Gordon either. He’s being elevated from the practice squad and that’d be so very Ravens of this team to have Gordon lead the backfield.
Leonard Fournette / Kareem Hunt, free agents
These are luxury adds if you have the bench space. We were reminded in Week 1 about the fragility of the running back position. Injuries are inevitable. While not currently signed, I expect both of these backs to sign as team needs arise.
Preference goes to Fournette because he’s better, but both are decent stashes at this point in the season.
Hayden Hurst (12% Rostered)
Hurst is the best receiver on the Panthers. That says more about the other options there (sorry Terrace Marshall) than it does about Hurst, but the outcome is the same for fantasy: a tight end who could very well be the top target on his team is just sitting on the waiver wire in near 90% of leagues.
Opportunity is king for the TE position, and with rookie Bryce Young taking a liking to Hurst, the opportunity knows no limit (well, except for the limitations of this Panthers’ offense as a whole).
Zach Ertz, Cardinals (11% Rostered)
Gross, I know. But Ertz had 10 targets and it’s not something we can just ignore. While Kyler Murray is out at least, Ertz is a viable start on volume alone. Don’t get your hopes up though, those 10 targets turned into just six catches for 21 yards. 8.1 fantasy points is fine. If Ertz doesn’t catch a touchdown, you’re okay with it. If he does? You’re thrilled. That’s about all you can ask for from most fantasy TEs.
Brock Purdy, 49ers (51%)
Purdy made it clear the 49ers made the right decision in naming him the starter. That being said, being a good NFL quarterback and a good fantasy quarterback are two different things. If you need safety and consistency at QB, Purdy is a worthwhile add. If you need upside, he is not your guy.
Sam Howell, Commanders (23%)
Howell’s biggest gift to fantasy managers is the magic he can produce with his legs. We saw that on display with the rushing touchdown he brought in himself to add to the 202 yards passing and a TD he threw for. If you’re looking for upside on the waiver wire at the QB position, he’s your guy.
Jordan Love, Packers (39%)
Love balled out in the first game of the Aaron Rodgers-less Era. While only completing about half of his pass attempts (15/27), Love still had 245 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions.
All this without presumed top pass catcher Christian Watson. While this is just one game against a subpar defense, what we saw could indicate Love is a top 12 fantasy QB just sitting on the waiver wire.
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