Great pick'em choices for Friday's MLB playoff games
A pivotal Game 5 in the ALCS and Game 4 in the NLCS is on tab for Friday, and with it comes some fun over/under challenges to potentially take advantage of.
Montgomery was fantastic in Game 1 and has been since the middle of September. He hasn't piled up strikeouts, but he's reached this total in seven of his last eight starts. You could argue he's due for some regression, but even if he's mediocre it’s likely he’ll pick up five-plus punchouts.
Turner has picked up at least one hit in every postseason game so far for the Phillies, and he’s slashing a robust .471/.556/.882 with three homers and four stolen bases over those nine contests. Now, the right-handed hitting infielder will take on Joe Mantiply and the Arizona bullpen with a chance to give Philadelphia a commanding 3-1 lead. After scoring just one run against Brandon Pfaadt and Arizona in Thursday’s loss, it’s a good bet that Turner and the D-Backs offense will turn things around Friday.
The Marte part-ay has been alive and well in the postseason, with the switch-hitting infielder registering a 1.046 OPS in the playoffs. He’s coming off a three-hit day with a pair of doubles in Game 3, and he’ll face Cristopher Sanchez and the Philadelphia bullpen. Ride the hot hand, especially against a pitcher that hasn’t appeared in a game since September 30.
Garcia has been solid in helping Texas get to this point and did go 2-for-4 with a homer against the Astros on Thursday. The outfielder has struggled against Justin Verlander, however, going 2-for-11 with no extra-base hits and three strikeouts. It will just take a two-bagger or better to reach this total, but after going deep in the loss Thursday, I’ll bet on some regression in this case, (relatively) confidently.
Sanchez has not played since September 30. The left-hander was solid in the regular season with a 3.44 ERA in just-over 99 innings, but this will be his first ever appearance in the postseason, and it’s hard to simulate that experience. It seems likely Sanchez will only go through the Arizona lineup one time and asking him to strike out a quality Arizona lineup more than three times in a short time is asking a lot.
Imagine betting the under on any total for Yordan Alvarez in a postseason game. Couldn’t be me. I don’t care if it’s a lefty on the mound. I don’t care that it’s a high total that basically requires him to drive in a run or pick up two-plus hits. It doesn’t matter. It’s Yordan Alvarez. That’s all the analysis you need.
Pitching and stacks options for ALCS, NLCS
Rangers at Astros, ALCS Game 2, 4:37 p.m. ET
Diamondbacks at Phillies, NLCS Game 1, 8:07 p.m. ET
It will be a smidgen on the cold side in Philadelphia with a very slight chance of rain, but both games should be played without issue.
Brandon Woodruff -- shoulder: It’s not relevant to the LCS, but it is big news. Woodruff underwent surgery to repair the anterior capsule in his right shoulder, and he’s expected to miss most -- if not all -- of the 2024 season. When healthy, the right-hander has been one of the best pitchers in baseball, but now the question is if Woodruff has thrown his last pitch as a Brewer since he’s not signed past the upcoming season. Either way, he won’t provide very much fantasy relevance in 2024, if any.
Wheeler and Gallen are the headliners and are big reasons why both teams are just four wins away from the World Series. In his two postseason starts thus far, Wheeler has allowed three runs with a sensational 18/1 K/BB over 13 frames, while Gallen has pitched well in both of his postseason starts while picking up wins.
Wheeler makes more sense as a DFS play because he’s much more likely to miss bats, and the Phillies do have home-field advantage.
It’s a little surprising that Eovaldi is cheapest, but part of that is the Rangers won Game 1 and Houston is the favorite to even the series. That said, he’ll be in my DFS lineup. No pitcher in this postseason has impressed me more. The right-hander has yet to walk a batter while striking out 15 in his starts against the Orioles and Rays, and his 1.32 ERA doesn’t really tell the story of just how dominant he’s been. Considering his postseason track record and how well he pitched earlier this year, there’s evidence this isn’t just smoke and mirrors.
One thing that gives me a little bit of hesitancy for using the Rangers -- outside of the fact that Valdez is really good -- is this will be the first time this postseason they face a left-handed starter. They were fine against southpaws in the regular season (.788 OPS compared to .790 against right-handers), and I think there are some things to exploit here. Potentially, anyway.
Valdez walked three batters in his shaky start against Minnesota in the ALDS, and the Rangers have patient hitters who can take advantage of self-inflicted damage.
I’m relying heavily on the Phillies and Rangers, as I think those are your two winners. I do get a piece of both the Astros and D-Backs with Walker and Pena, but I don’t want to see too much damage done against my starters.
I like Castellanos and Schwarber to put together strong games against Gallen, and while I hope it’s kept to a minimum -- strictly for financial purposes -- both Walker and Pena have a good chance for solid games.
CC breaks down the ALCS and NLCS
After a Wild Card round that saw four sweeps, there were two more in the League Division Series, and no series went beyond four games. Now, we have our League Championship Series set, with Texas taking on the Astros in the ALCS and the Phillies battling the upstart Diamondbacks in the NLCS.
Here’s what to look for in each series with a prediction for who will meet in the World Series, which begins Oct. 27.
Betting Odds: Astros - 140, Rangers +120 (DraftKings)
Regular season results: Astros 9, Rangers 4
How the Astros got here: AL West champions, 3-1 series win over Minnesota in the American League Division Series.
How the Rangers got here: 2-0 series win over Tampa Bay in the Wild Card Series; 3-0 series win over Baltimore in the American League Division Series.
Lineups: The Astros have loads of playoff experience and a red-hot Yordan Alvarez, who has pulverized postseason pitching throughout his career, to go with October stalwarts like Jose Altuve (outside of his dreadful 2022 run) and Alex Bregman to go with a resurgent Jose Abreu, among others. The Rangers, meanwhile, have one of the most complete groups in baseball, led by MVP candidate Corey Seager but also Marcus Semien, rookie wunderkind Evan Carter and a host of other players capable of taking the ball out of the park.
Advantage: Rangers
Rotation: This should be an advantage for the Astros, but how big of one depends on whether or not Max Scherzer (shoulder) returns. Nathan Eovaldi has been phenomenal in the postseason throughout his career and Jordan Montgomery was a massive get for the injury-riddled Texas rotation at the deadline. There are significant questions behind those two, questions that become less emphasized if Scherzer makes the roster, while the Astros will have Justin Verlander, Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier and likely Jose Urquidy.
Advantage: Astros, but again, depends on whether Scherzer can go.
Bullpen: An easy one, on paper, anyway. The Rangers’ bullpen was awful down the stretch even after the acquisition of Aroldis Chapman, and while Jose LeClerc and Josh Sborz have been able to get the job done, it’s fair to say Texas fans will have unease in the late innings. Meanwhile, the Astros have a reliable closer in Ryan Pressly, two set-up relievers that were lights out in Bryan Abreu and Hector Neris, and the ability to use talented rookie Hunter Brown -- or Urquidy -- as a multi-inning option. This one’s not close. Advantage: Astros.
Prediction: The Astros are clearly the better pitching team, but Texas has been streaky all year, and they appear to be on another hot streak. I’ll predict them to stay hot in what should be a very fun series. Rangers in 7.
Betting Odds: Phillies - 170, Diamondbacks +170 (DraftKings)
Regular season results: Phillies 4, Diamondbacks 3
How the Phillies got here: 2-0 series win over Miami in the NL Wild Card Series, 3-1 win over Atlanta in the National League Division Series.
How the Rangers got here: 2-0 series win over Milwaukee in the NL Wild Card Series, 3-0 series win over Los Angeles in the National League Division Series.
Lineups: The Diamondbacks were a middle-of-the-road lineup in 2023, ranking 14th in runs scored, batting average and on-base percentage. In the postseason, however, Arizona has looked the part, led by superstar rookie Corbin Carroll but also getting significant contributions from Ketel Marte, Christian Walker, Gabriel Moreno and Tommy Pham. The Phillies’ lineup seems a tad more reliable with superstars Bryce Harper and Trea Turner and a host of other quality options.
Advantage: Phillies.
Rotation: This one’s close. Arizona and Philadelphia have excellent options at the top in Zac Gallen and Zack Wheeler, respectively, and a quality No. 2 with Aaron Nola for the Phillies and Merrill Kelly for the Diamondbacks. Brandon Pfaadt will be the third starter for Arizona and has pitched well in the postseason after a (very) inconsistent rookie campaign, and it’ll likely be Ryne Nelson in Game 4. That’s where the edge goes to the Phillies, as Ranger Suarez and either Taijuan Walker or Cristopher Sanchez getting the ball in the fourth game.
Advantage: Phillies.
Bullpen: The Diamondbacks were a bit of a mess for most of the season, but the trade for Paul Sewald helped solidify the backend of the relief corps, and arms like Kevin Ginkel, Joe Mantiply and Andrew Saalfrank were fantastic in the first two postseason series. Philadelphia had bullpen issues over the previous two seasons, but the return of Jose Alvarado gives them a legit relief “ace,” and a resurgent Craig Kimbrel along with impressive rookie Orion Kerkering gives the Phils their best postseason bullpen in quite some time.
Advantage: Gotta go Phillies, just based on the track record.
Prediction: I’ve predicted the Diamondbacks to flame out in each of the previous series, and it hasn’t worked out (note: it has nothing to do with disdain towards Arizona, they’re truly one of my favorite postseason stories in years.) I won’t do that this time, but I am going to pick a Philadelphia team that just seems built for October and will have the home field advantage. Phillies in 6.
Sara gives you her top stacks options for Wednesday
Wednesday is a packed day of playoff baseball with three league division series games and two teams facing elimination.
The Orioles were eliminated Tuesday by a Rangers team that has been streaky all season and hit a hot streak at the right time. The Dodgers (down 2-0 to the Diamondbacks) and the Twins (down 1-2 to the Astros) could join the Orioles on the outside looking in. Let’s take a closer look at the Daily Fantasy options.
There aren’t that many options for stacking pitchers and the Braves are complicating that situation by not committing to who they’re starting. I’ll go with Aaron Nola ($9600/$10100), who has been up and down but brings the highest floor of any starter tonight.
Nola had a quality start in the Wild Card round with seven scoreless innings and, while the strikeouts weren’t there, they were in his last two starts of the regular season.
I’ll pair Nola with Brandon Pfaadt ($7500), who is a contrarian play. I’m looking for upside and value from Pfaadt, who has struggled at times in his rookie campaign and in his last time against the Brewers. But he’s got strikeout potential and did close the season with two of three strong starts, going five-plus scoreless innings against both the North and South side of Chicago.
For batters, I expect big run totals in all of the games, so there are lots of options for good stacks.
My favorite option is the Philadelphia Phillies, who will be playing in front of their home crowd, and Citizens Bank Park should be rocking. J.T. Realmuto ($4200/$3300) has been hot this postseason with a wRC+ of 208 while slashing .333/.375/.800. Pair him with one of these hitters:
I’ll also try to build a lineup including Kyle Schwarber ($4400/$3700). Although the Phillies’ big leadoff man hasn’t gotten it going this October, he has walked in 11.8% of his plate appearances and it’s just a matter of time before he hits a bomb.
It should be a great evening of playoff baseball no matter who you are stacking. With all of the teams pretty deep into their rotations and a couple of teams in must-win situations it feels like a great day to bet the over.
*All dollar values are courtesy of DraftKings/FanDuel.
CC details his best PrizePicks and Underdog choices
There are three playoff games Wednesday, with plenty of chances for fun over/under plays as we march towards the League Championship Series in the American League and National League.
The starting pitching options aren’t great Wednesday, but Nola is the best and gave up one run in seven innings against the Marlins in his last outing. He only struck out three, but that has more to do with the aggressiveness of the Miami lineup. Even against a loaded Atlanta lineup, there’s a very good chance Nola will strike out more than five in Game 3.
This is a low total and is more of a bet of Ryan not going long innings. He had a 5.22 ERA in the second half of the season and allowed 32 homers in 29 starts (162 innings) overall. He’ll face strong Houston hitters like Yordan Alvarez and Alex Bregman and there’s a strong chance this will be a short outing for Ryan in a game Minnesota must win to keep its season going.
The Dodgers haven’t gotten anything going in their first two games of the postseason and need a win Wednesday to survive. Freeman only got on base three times in the first two games, but the last time he faced Brandon Pfaadt -- the D-backs’ Game 3 starter -- he went 2-for-4 with a homer.
A double and a walk will hit this total for those who bet the under, and we’ve seen Freeman reach that result (or better) throughout the 2023 campaign. Look for the 2020 MVP to have a big game against Pfaadt and the Arizona pitching staff.
Would anyone be shocked if Alvarez reached this total by himself? The left-handed slugger has been sensational in the first three games of this series with four HRs and a .500/.538/1.667 slash, and we already mentioned Ryan’s struggles. The fact that you get another player with Alvarez makes this a relatively easy over in a game that will see plenty of runs scored by both teams.
Let’s preface this with the fact that I’ve picked against Arizona in all four postseason games and obviously have not been correct. You’re welcome, Diamondbacks fans, and I’ve been nothing but impressed with what I’ve seen over this first week-plus of playoff baseball.
Having said that, I’m going with Lynn, who showed zero consistency in 2023 but had enough flashes of brilliance to suggest he can start strong in a survival game. The Diamondbacks surely will regress soon, and I’ll bet (again) on that taking place Wednesday.
Top pitching, stacks options for Tuesday games
The junior circuit steps into the spotlight Tuesday evening with a pair of intriguing matchups that offer plenty of intrigue for fantasy managers. It’ll be the Rangers aiming to break out the brooms and sweep a back-and-forth slugfest of a series against the Orioles, while the Astros and Twins will wrestle for control of their respective best-of-five series in a pivotal Game 3 in Minnesota.
Houston Astros at Minnesota Twins, ALDS Game 3, 4:07 p.m. ET
Baltimore Orioles at Texas Rangers, ALDS Game 3, 8:03 p.m. ET
There are no weather concerns for either contest and the lone outdoor contest in Minnesota will feature unseasonably warm temperatures in the mid-50’s.
None
Gray and Eovaldi are easily the top options. Gray tossed five shutout innings against the Blue Jays in his first outing of the postseason after finishing the regular season as one of the top pitchers in the American League, especially from a run-prevention standpoint.
Meanwhile, Eovaldi's postseason success continued Wednesday with an eight-strikeout gem against the Rays to propel the Rangers to a Wild Card Series upset win. The 33-year-old veteran right-hander boasts a pristine 2.90 ERA and 49/8 K/BB ratio across 49 2/3 innings (12 appearances, seven starts) in the playoffs dating back to 2018.
Cristian Javier, Astros RHP, at Twins: $7,300
We’ve witnessed it before in the postseason from Javier, so it wouldn’t be shocking at all to see him spin a gem on the road in Minnesota. The 26-year-old right-hander, who has yet to make an appearance this postseason, holds a stellar 2.20 ERA and 48/16 K/BB ratio across 32 2/3 innings (14 appearances, two starts) in the postseason since 2020. Minnesota's lineup has been sizzling hot in the playoffs, but they're also incredibly strikeout prone, which could set up Javier to succeed.
Rangers vs. Orioles (RHP Dean Kremer)
Kremer was a serviceable back-end starter for the Orioles during the regular season but has been thrust into a more prominent role in the postseason following an injury to veteran southpaw John Means. The 27-year-old righty posted a pedestrian 4.12 ERA, 1.31 WHIP and 157/55 K/BB ratio across 172 2/3 innings (32 starts) this season and also gave up 27 homers during that span.
If there's a pitcher to stack against Tuesday, it's Kremer by a considerable margin. Obviously, Marcus Semien, Corey Seager and Adolis García are the most notable names to consider, but Robbie Grossman, Evan Carter and Mitch Garver should also be under consideration for stacking purposes as well.
CC lays out his pitching, lineup choices for NLDS
Philles at Braves, Game 2, 6:07 p.m. ET
Diamondbacks at Dodgers, Game 2, 9:07 p.m. ET
There doesn’t appear to be anything that should prevent either of Monday’s games from being played.
Kyle Wright, Braves RHP, shoulder: Wright’s season was already over after being placed on the 60-day injured list, but multiple outlets have reported that he’s likely to undergo surgery that will cause him to miss the 2024 season. It’s a disappointing development for a pitcher that was so good in 2022 -- 3.19 ERA, 21-5 record -- but now will have essentially two missed seasons.
If Wheeler and Gallen pitch up to their potential, there’s a very good chance they’ll lead their respective teams to 2-0 leads despite playing the first two contests on the road.
Both hurlers have faced their respective opponents multiple times in 2023, with Wheeler posting a 3.32 ERA with a 21/6 K/BB in three starts against Atlanta, while Gallen struggled against the Dodgers with a 9.90 ERA and four homers in two outings and 10 innings. The sample is relatively small, but it’s a easier to have confidence in Wheeler.
Fried was a very effective option when healthy (2.55 ERA, 1.13 WHIP), but he was limited to 14 starts and 77 2/3 innings because of injuries and hasn’t started a game since Sept. 21 because of a blister on his left index finger.
That adds more risk on top of the Phillies having plenty of quality right-handed hitters -- and good lefties, too -- but Fried is worth roster consideration based on his track record. That and the limited options, of course.
Miller is making his first postseason start, which is a little scary, but his success in the second half of the season makes him arguably the most intriguing arm going. Over his last 10 starts, the rookie right-hander has a 3.25 ERA over 61 innings, held hitters to an OPS of .575 and registered a 57/15 K/BB ratio.
There’s no denying the Diamondbacks have looked fantastic so far in the postseason -- a bit weird considering how poor they looked at the end of the regular season -- but Miller makes an awful lot of sense to pair with a pitcher like Wheeler or Fried; whomever you like to win that game.
Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks (Gallen)
So far, I’ve been about as wrong as it gets when picking against the Diamondbacks, but I’ll try one more time. The Dodgers have done a very nice job of bouncing back from losses over the past few postseasons, and they appear to pick the baseball up well against Gallen based on their numbers.
This is a borderline must-win game for LA. It’s not impossible to come back from an 0-2 hole in a five-game series, but it’s awfully hard -- and I’ll (literally) bet on them coming out hot after their absolute disaster of a Game 1 on Saturday.
CC gives you great lineup options for Game 1s
Rangers at Orioles is delayed, but weather shouldn’t be an issue for any of the other three Game 1 options in the LDS Saturday.
Max Scherzer – The Rangers LHP was left off the roster as he hasn’t made enough progress from the shoulder issue that has sidelined the future Hall-of-Famer since the middle of September. The Rangers hope he could be back as an option if the team advances to the ALCS.
John Means – The Orioles LHP was left off the roster as he recovers from soreness in his left elbow. The southpaw pitched well in his four starts after returning from injury this summer, and there’s a very good chance he’ll return if the O’s reach the ALCS.
Gabriel Moreno – The Diamondbacks catcher was hit in the head in the Game 2 win over the Brewers when Brice Turang’s bat swing hit his helmet. The backstop passed concussion protocol, however, and appears to be ready to roll for Game 1. Keep in mind is the late game, so there’s a smidgen of risk keeping Moreno in the lineup.
Strider struck out 281 batters and won 20 games for the best team in baseball but had a 5.60 ERA in five September starts. He did win all four decisions, however, and had 11 strikeouts and gave up three runs in seven innings in his last outing against the Phillies. Long story short, it’s easy to justify Strider in the lineup if you’re feeling it, but there’s more risk than reward.
Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks (Kelly)
Kelly has enjoyed a strong 2023 season, so this is more about belief in the Los Angeles lineup. He did struggle in his last outing against LA, giving up 12 hits and seven runs over five innings. This stack gives fantasy players a mix of big names like Betts and Smith with cheaper options like Rojas and Heyward. It’s easy to imagine the Dodgers getting off to a strong offensive start Saturday, with all due respect to Kelly and the D-Backs staff.
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