Great choices from Contrarian Edge Optimizer
An optimizer is a powerful tool to harness in DFS play, capable of bulk operations in an instant that would otherwise take hours of manipulation to perform manually. Like any other tool, one must first learn how to wield an optimizer before its true power can be realized. That is exactly what we will look to sort through in this weekly series. We’ll focus on Contrarian Edge Optimizer use at Fantasy Sports Logic for the Monday slates each week of the 2023 season to explore the tool itself, maximize expected value through optimal utilization, and provide a sneak peek into the newest, and most dynamic, optimizer in the industry.
As we typically do, running the optimizer without manipulating anything will give us a good idea of what to expect from the field tonight. The blended roster appears to be focused on fitting both quarterbacks in, returning a build of Hunter Renfrow at captain, Jared Goff, Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jimmy Garoppolo, and Josh Jacobs. There is a ton to discuss based off that first run alone.
First off, let’s break down the returned roster from the optimizer before getting into the rest of the theory for Week 8 Monday Night Football.
Hunter Renfrow carries a low 5.1 percent team target market share and 9.9 targets per route run rate for the Raiders this season as he has been largely phased out of the offense (and appears likely to be on his way out of town before the trade deadline). That profile would likely require a deep average depth of target (aDOT) to return viable production for the captain slot. Except Renfrow holds a modest 8.8 aDOT in this offense this season. That means Renfrow should be reserved for flex usage on this slate, and even then, his chances of cracking the optimal roster are extremely thin.
50.6 percent of the available targets for the Raiders have flowed through Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers this season. 84.0 percent of the team’s backfield opportunities have gone to Josh Jacobs. That, my friends, is an extremely concentrated offense. Even so, it remains highly unlikely all three see the requisite production on a showdown slate to simply force them onto rosters together, leaving us with our first general rule for this evening:
At least one of, and no more than two of, Davante Adams, Jakobi Meyers, and Josh Jacobs.
Because the concentration of work is so tight amongst those three Raiders players, it is not required to play them paired with their quarterback, Jimmy Garoppolo. In fact, Garoppolo has just one game all season with more than a modest 16.1 fantasy points on an offense that has struggled in the red zone to the tune of a 27th-ranked 41.67 percent red zone touchdown rate (the rate of red zone trips that result in a touchdown). I conducted a study this offseason that attempted to find the correlation between touchdowns and fantasy production at the four major positions. That study found that the correlation was highest at quarterback (that study can be found here if you’re interested in the numbers behind the claim). That leaves us with our second major rule for this slate:
Limit Jimmy Garoppolo to 30 percent ownership and boost the Las Vegas kicker on rosters without Garoppolo. The two should theoretically never be played together.
Interestingly enough, the Lions have been even more concentrated than the Raiders this season, with Sam LaPorta and Amon-Ra St. Brown combining to account for 52.3 percent of the team’s total targets on the year. With David Montgomery out of action in Week 7, Jahmyr Gibbs handled a robust 87 percent snap rate and saw 21 running back opportunities, 10 of which were targets. In fact, St. Brown, LaPorta, and Gibbs combined to see 36 targets on 53 Jared Goff pass attempts their last time out, good for an elite 67.9 percent combined market share. Furthermore, the Raiders rank 30th in the league in red zone touchdown rate allowed at a robust 73.91 percent (as in, teams are scoring a touchdown on 73.91 percent of their red zone trips against the Raiders this season). Rule number three for MNF:
Jared Goff on 70 percent of rosters, paired with at least two of Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta, and Jahmyr Gibbs.
Finally, Tre Tucker has out-snapped Hunter Renfrow in each of the previous two games while Austin Hooper, Kalif Raymond, Antoine Green, Jameson Williams, and Brock Wright have all played around the same percentage of snaps during each team’s previous two games. Our final rule for the evening:
Exactly one player from the group of Tucker, Hooper, Raymond, Green, Williams, and Wright on every roster.
As you can see, the Contrarian Edge Optimizer is an invaluable tool to building bulk rosters for DFS play. To best harness its abilities, we must first have a working knowledge of the varying options to utilize as inputs in addition to a theoretical and conceptual working knowledge of the game of NFL DFS. This article series will attempt to further our understanding in both those areas throughout the season.
Players who were great, and not, on Sunday
For some of us with struggling fantasy teams, every matchup is basically Halloween. You’re hoping your team can dress up as something it’s not and some fill-in players can play pretend as All-Pros.
But that’s what makes it all fun! The pretend and the hope and the “any given Sunday” aspect if enough goes right, your team can pull out the victory -- unless you’re playing against A.J. Brown, who doesn’t need to dress up as anything other than himself because he just might be Superman!
1. CeeDee Lamb - 12 rec. 158 yds. 2 TDs
2. Dak Prescott - 304 yds. 4 TDs
3. DeAndre Hopkins - 4 rec. 128 yds. 3 TDs
4. Will Levis - 238 yds. 4 TDs
5. Sam Howell - 397 yds. 4 TDs
6. Jahan Dotson - 108 yds. 1 TD
7. Jaylen Waddle - 121 yds. 1 TD
8. Gus Edwards - 80 yds. 3 TDs
9. Rashid Shaheed - 153 yds. 1 TD
10. Trey McBride - 95 yds. 1 TD
We knew the Dallas Cowboys had it in ‘em! We knew they could throw it downfield, didn’t we? Yes, of course we did. We just needed Mike McCarthy to believe it, too. Good things happen when Dak Prescott finds CeeDee Lamb early and often. It was Lamb’s second consecutive 100+ yard effort and far and away Dak’s best throwing game of the year. The Cowboys looked like they couldn’t hang with anyone after the embarrassment against the 49ers a few weeks ago. Now, it looks like they could torch a leaky Eagles secondary next week. And they’re going to need to because they’re not getting much from the ground game.
You know that Randy Moss image that floats around the internet every now and then? Moss is looking at the camera while the old Fox graphic showed his Thanksgiving stat line of 3 catches 163 yards 3 TDs. That was basically DeAndre Hopkins’ Sunday this week except he had one extra catch. Hopkins and the Tennessee offense actually looked explosive thanks to rookie QB Will Levis. One game does not make a career, but Levis made a case for getting plenty of more run. I’m sure the Titans aren’t asking Ryan Tannehill to hurry back from injury now.
Nobody gets sacked more than Sam Howell. The guy is picking himself up off the ground seemingly every play, and a Philadelphia Eagles front was going to be a daunting task. But Washington kept Howell relatively upright and he delivered a career day and almost a win. The effort might’ve revitalized Jahan Dotson’s season as he turned in his first 100 yard game of the year. The Commanders have gotten Dotson more involved the past two weeks and he could keep it rolling against the Patriots next week.
Speaking of New England, they just got burned by both Dolphins receivers. But while it’s pretty routine to see Tyreek Hill go off, it was nice to see Jaylen Waddle join him in the century club for yardage. Waddle had scored in 3 of the last 4 games and could be on the board again if the matchup next week with the Chiefs turns into a shootout.
The Gus bus was rolling for Baltimore against the Cardinals. Listen, we can be honest here. Watching Gus Edwards run isn’t the most beautiful thing in the world. But he’s averaging over four yards per carry and he’s the clear lead and bellcow for the Ravens. He’s a threat to score every time if Baltimore gets close to the end zone.
If the New Orleans Saints record a big play in a game, it’s probably because of Rashid Shaheed. It doesn’t matter if Derek Carr or Taysom Hill is throwing it, Shaheed is catching bombs. At the very least, he’s good for betting the over on his weekly longest reception prop. His big play ability gives him a huge upside when slotting him in at flex or your spot start receiver for your fantasy team.
Trey McBride finds himself a starter in Arizona with Zach Ertz on the IR and now he could be in the weekly TE1 conversation. McBride wound up with just south of 100 yards and a score while amassing 14 targets in the Cardinals offense. Things could get even better if Kyler Murray ends up taking the field soon.
Now, for the dreaded duds. For Halloween, the Green Bay Packers should dress as a team that has a competent offense. Andy Herman summed it up on X with this: the Packers haven’t scored a first half touchdown since week 2. It’s insulting to struggling teams to say the Packers are struggling. They are inept out there.
Jordan Love can’t seem to find it with Christian Watson. Did Aaron Jones do something to Matt LaFleur we don’t know about? Hope springs eternal with the Rams and their freshly burnt secondary on tap, but I also thought this Green Bay team could move the ball against the Broncos last week and they didn’t. So we’ll see.
Speaking of those Broncos, how about a round of applause. They shut down our other dud team: the Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs were 7 point favorites and lost outright on the road. They scored zero touchdowns against a team in Denver that had looked flat out hapless at times this season. Patrick Mahomes tossed two picks. The Chiefs will be fine but this loss still has to sting.
And finally, what’s gotten into San Francisco? That’s three losses in a row for a team that looked like world beaters with no weaknesses. What do those losses have in common? The opposing team’s WR1 put up more than 100 yards on the 49ers' secondary all three times. Quarterback Brock Purdy has been far from “brock” solid in each of those games tossing 5 picks over three weeks. An away date with a red hot Jaguars team doesn’t make things much easier.
Updated rankings for all NFL player positions
Our NFL player rankings guru Cody Carpentier has taken a run through all player positions for Week 8 and elevated some and demoted others based on the latest information coming from each team. See below:
6 sneaky additions that could creep up in value
Apparently, only Chiefs WR Rashee Rice got the memo after I listed him as one of my ‘bargain bin’ guys last week; as for the others?
Let’s not speak on that.
Thankfully, it’s a new week - which means a new slate of players that can be had at cheaper than usual prices — and no bye weeks!
Week 8, here we go baby (all salaries courtesy of FanDuel).
Coming off two straight weeks in which he’s attempted 50+ passes and passed for over 300+ yards in each of those games, Derek Carr has had a lot on his plate.
From a fantasy perspective, that has also coincided with his two best performances to date, scoring 17+ points in back-to-back weeks (standard PPR scoring leagues).
While the stat-stuffing hasn’t helped the Saints pick up dubs in the last two weeks, Carr’s Week 8 matchup is salivating on paper.
Enter the Indianapolis Colts, who have given up a WHOPPING 75 points combined in the last two weeks. To add injury to insult, starting rookie CB Juju Brents is expected to miss over a week due to a quadriceps injury he sustained last week, rendering an already suspect defense that much more vulnerable.
While the status of WR Chris Olave’s availability is unknown at this juncture, Carr will still have Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara to work with, not to mention Tayson Hill - who has 11 receptions for 99 receiving yards in the last two weeks (on 13 targets).
Given the plethora of weapons at his disposal, start Carr with confidence in Week 8.
It’s not every week that Gus Edwards will total 80 receiving yards for both fantasy owners and the Baltimore Ravens (albeit on one catch against Detroit last week), but it’s also not every week that Edwards will go up against the Arizona Cardinals defense - hence why he’s my bargain of bargains at the running back position.
On the season, the Cardinals are allowing the 4th-most fantasy points to opposing RB’s, and if that wasn’t enough to get you hyped up about starting Edwards in fantasy, a positive game script should be.
As 8-point favorites (at the time of this writing), Edwards should also receive plenty of opportunities to score, as he’s also Baltimore’s preferred goal-line back (not including Lamar Jackson).
Here’s a fun stat for you: (shoutout to Lawrence Jackson of NBC Sports for this one)
The Cardinals have allowed at least 100 rushing yards to the opposing team’s lead back in four of their last five games.
If all goes according to plan and Baltimore is beating the same brakes off the Cardinals as they did the Lions last week, Edwards should FEAST in Week 8.
Another bargain play, another New Orleans Saint sighting (I also thought long and hard about Taysom Hill, so any Saints fan reading this - you’re welcome).
Needless to say, if you’re looking for a sneaky snack (particularly in DFS) this week, look no further than the tandem of Derek Carr and not Chris Olave, but Michael Thomas.
A true model of consistency, Thomas has yet to score below 9.3 fantasy points in any game this season, and we’re already almost eight weeks in.
Like I mentioned above with Derek Carr, the Colts defense is RIPE for strong performances from Saints skill position players, as they have been giving up points GALORE in the last two weeks.
If the Colts two-headed monster at RB in Jonathan Taylor and Zack Moss can keep the Saints defense on their heels, we could have an under-the-radar shootout on our hands in Week 8 between these two teams (ala Cleveland and Indiana last week)
As I always say, chase those players, chase those matchups, and chase those points because everyone eats!
How the mighty have fallen…. (cue the sad war music)
Just kidding.
Can we all cut Calvin Ridley some slack??? I get it, WR37 on the season and an average of 10.97 points per game simply is not going to cut it, especially for those that drafted Ridley to be their fantasy squad’s WR1.
I spoke to Jaguars Beat Reporter (Sports Illustrated) John Shipley recently and he essentially attributed Ridley’s struggles to a few things:
(among other things)
Shipley also told me that he expects Ridley to start turning it up for the Jaguars come playoff time, which doesn’t do fantasy owners any favors I know. But if he’s going to pop off BEFORE the NFL postseason, it’ll be in Week 8 against the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Yes, they deserve some credit for holding Cooper Kupp to 2 receptions and 29 yards last week, but Puka Nacua went NUCLEAR with 8 receptions for 154 yards (on 12 targets).
The Steelers have also had a tendency to give up big plays and are allowing the third-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers.
If you’ve been patient with Ridley, now’s the time to unleash him.
Quietly becoming one of Justin Herbert’s favorite targets in the red zone, Gerald Everett has back-to-back weeks having scored a TD.
Against a team in the Bears (who are giving up the 12th-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends), Everett should be able to produce for the Chargers, who are DESPERATE for a win (they’ve lost three of their last five games).
Given the shallow nature of the tight end position, Everett might not be the sexiest option, but give me the starting tight end for a high-octane offense vs a young defense any week.
After a month of little-to-no-use in the passing game, Rhamondre Stevenson has back-to-back weeks with 5+ receptions and 6+ targets.
When he’s getting the ball, that usually means good things for the Patriots and their offense.
Given that his Patriots are the biggest underdogs of the Week 8 slate (according to DraftKings betting odds) at (+9.5), we might find the Patriots passing the ball a lot more than we’re accustomed to if they’re going to keep up with the Dolphins and their high-octane passing attack.
Sure, Ezekiel Elliot will continue to be sprinkled into the game plan as the team’s goal-line back, but just how often will the Patriots find themselves in that position?
You’re better off banking on the guy who's the primary pass-catcher in a matchup that could get out of hand in a jiffy in Stevenson.
Great Week 8 options for your roster construction
In a Desert of Byes, we find the Week 8 oasis. No teams on bye so we have access to a full slate of games when looking for our stacks to give us an edge. There are some sneaky high scoring games (I’m looking at you, Jax @ Pit) and a couple stinkers we’ll be avoiding (*cough* the battle of the New Jersey teams *cough*).
The whole point of stacking is to exploit correlations, taking the number of events you need to happen for success and cutting them down. A QB throwing a TD to a wide receiver on his team means you get credit for two touchdowns, passing and receiving, if you stacked those two players. If you are just starting studs across multiple teams, you need two touchdowns to get that same amount of points. It opens you up to bigger duds, but also means singular events on Sunday can have a bigger impact on your score.
The Steelers are giving up the 2nd-most fantasy points per game to opposing WRs. The Jaguars are giving up the 2nd most passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks.
This game is going to have a lot of points scored and I want pieces on the winning side, i.e., Lawrence and the Jacksonville Squad.
Throwing away Week 1, Kirk hasn’t seen fewer than six targets (two games with double digit targets), hasn’t scored fewer than 13.9 PPR points and has finished as a WR2 or better in four of six weeks (the other two were still top-30 performances). While Calvin Ridley looked like that dude after Week 1, Kirk has made it clear he’s Lawrence’s preferred target.
Johnson walked straight on the field from being injured and immediately was heavily involved -- six targets in Week 7 and now a juicy matchup against a weak Jaguars secondary. Get Diontae in there as your bring-back player in this game.
Call it chasing points, but Jackson is ON right now and just reasserted himself as an MVP frontrunner in a dominant 4-touchdown performance against the Lions in Week 7. We’re running it back against a weak Cardinals defense.
The Cardinals are giving up the 4th-most points per week to opposing quarterbacks and the 6th-most points to opposing WRs. We’re matching a weak defense with an elite offense and an emerging rookie weapon.
Flowers has seen fewer than six targets only twice this season as a rookie and has seen double-digit targets on three occasions. On a team where it seemed predetermined that Mark Andrews would be the top target, Flowers is doing his best to take over as the team’s No. 1. The Cardinals have been surprisingly stingy against opposing tight ends, so roll with Lamar’s other favorite option for the stack this week.
The Panther defense has been absolutely porous against the run, but the Texans have been unable to get things going on the ground. Dameon Pierce has the 9th-most carries in the league but is 28th in yardage. That’s not a recipe for winning games and the Texans should rely on their rookie QB to bring home the W.
It’s like a concussion and a bye week made everyone forget how good of a receiver Tank Dell was through the first five weeks. Consistency likely won’t be there for the rookie, but his first week back coming off a bye against a beatable secondary is a week I’m willing to take a shot.
Save some money to spend big on the rest of this full slate. Dell and Stroud will get it done in Carolina.
Ranking TEs, kickers and defenses for Week 8
Deep cuts this week belong to Tyler Conklin of the Jets, playing the New York Giants, and Chig Okonkwo with Will Levis in at quarterback for Tennessee.
Cody's Rankings: QB | RB | WR | TE-K-Def
With Zach Ertz and Dawson Knox injured, look for Dalton Kincaid and Trey McBride to vault into the top 12 on a weekly basis going forward. And this will indeed be the week I stop talking about Andrew Ogletree
Ranking the wide receivers for Week 8
Demario Douglas had five targets in Week 7, eclipsing JuJu Smith-Schuster and DeVante Parker combined. Douglas saw 25 routes in Week 7, the most since his 27 in Week 1.
Rashid Shaheed has continued to carve out opportunities in New Orleans with another 80%+ route share. With Chris Olave dealing with a legal situation, look for Shaheed to see a few more targets if Olave misses this week.
Cody's Rankings: QB | RB | WR | TE-K-Def
Even if Olave plays, Shaheed proved over the last three weeks -- 2, 5 and 7 targets -- that he has standalone value within a high output offense.
Ranking the running backs for Week 8
Going back to the well with D’Onta Foreman was the best move possible in Week 7. He finished as the overall RB1, with 19 touches, 120 yards and 3 touchdowns. This week, it looks like Roschon Johnson will return, but as much as we love Johnson, he is coming off of a two-week mishap with a concussion. With a solid matchup against the Chargers, let’s continue tailing the borderline workhorse in Chicago.
The deepest play is in Cleveland, with Pierre Strong sitting behind the injured Kareem Hunt and Jerome Ford. Strong finished as RB49 in Week 7 with just 8 carries and no targets.
Cody's Rankings: QB | RB | WR | TE-K-Def
Deep-Deep plays consist of Cam Akers and Kenny McIntosh, the rookie coming off of IR in Seattle. McIntosh was the coaching staff's favorite over Zach Charbonnet during training camp. After missing the first 7 weeks, McIntosh is back and Charbonnet is coming off a hamstring injury that caused him to miss Week 7.
Fantasy Football Experts Stu (Montone) Durst, and Terrell Furman review all the NFL Week 8 games, give you all the Waiver Wire Pickups for Week 9 and recap the Monday Night Football Game between the Raiders and the Lions. Check the Fantasy Fire and Ice Podcast daily for injury updates, breaking NFL news, and player profiles.
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