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Tom's top PrizePicks and Underdog plays
The NBA season officially began last Tuesday, but this Tuesday, I say it officially kicked off because we received our first blockbuster overnight Woj bomb. The 76ers saga with James Harden concluded early Tuesday morning. Philadelphia agreed to send a package that included Harden and PJ Tucker to the Clippers for veterans Marcus Morris, Nicolas Batum, Robert Covington, and picks. There are three games Tuesday night to select our Underdog, and PrizePicks plays for.
There are a couple of fun matchups, including an Eastern Conference playoff rematch between the New York Knicks and Cleveland Cavaliers. The new-look Clippers could make their debut Tuesday night when they host the Orlando Magic.
The Knicks will be in Cleveland to battle the Cavaliers in a playoff rematch in the first game on TNT Tuesday night. Cleveland remains without Jarrett Allen, so Robinson will easily be the biggest force on the floor. Mitch has hauled in 15 and 13 rebounds over his last two games. The Knicks lead the NBA in rebounding so far this season, and without Allen to protect the paint, the Cavaliers have struggled on the glass, allowing the 9th most rebounds per game.
The Cavaliers will be short-handed tonight, so Mitchell will see an even bigger spike in his already crazy-high usage. Darius Garland has been ruled out for Tuesday, and in 9 games last season without Garland, Mitchell had at least 4 turnovers 8 times! Mitchell has played without Garland once already this season and had 5 turnovers to go with his usage increase to 36.4%! This is not an indictment of Mitchell’s play but just a spot where he will have the ball in his hands a ton.
This will be the world’s second look at Wemby on national television when the Spurs battle the Suns on TNT. The phenom has finished with 5, 12, and 5 rebounds in his first three games. In his two finishes with just 5 rebounds, he dealt with foul trouble and then a blowout, which saw him play just 23 and 26 minutes. The Spurs should be in this game, and Jusuf Nurkic and Drew Eubanks are not instilling any fear. Trust Wemby to grab at least 7 boards.
I’m staying in the desert for my next pick. The Suns center should be able to dominate his matchup against his former teammate, Zach Collins, who isn’t known for his abilities on the defensive end. The Spurs allowed the three Centers they faced to go over this number. Dereck Lively II scored 16 points, Alperen Sengun poured in 25 points, and Ivica Zubac scored 16 points in just 22 minutes.
Wagner is quietly off to a solid start to his 2023 season. He is certainly a player to watch after his strong performance in the World Cup this past summer. With the Clippers lineup possibly a bit unstable tonight following the trade, I’m opting for a Magic player. Wagner has attempted at least 7 three-pointers in all three games so far. He hasn’t been shy about getting his shots up, as he leads all Magic players in three-point attempts so far. The Clippers have allowed the fourth-most threes to opposing small forwards, so this is a good spot for him.
Top PrizePicka and Underdog options for Monday
The NBA season is off and running, and what an exciting first week it was. We’ve now had a chance to see every team play. Many new faces in new places have started off strong, and there are plenty of player props to select from. We’re coming off a sweep last Thursday, and I’m looking to continue that success this week! We have 11 games to select our Underdog, and PrizePicks plays for Monday night to kick off our week!
There are some exciting matchups, including an Eastern Conference playoff rematch between Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Miami Heat. There are plenty of options for Monday night, so let’s get to it.
Riding with Giannis on any night is an easy choice but riding him in the ultimate revenge spot is even better. The Bucks will battle the Heat on Monday night in their third game of the season. Miami was responsible for knocking the Bucks out of the playoffs last season in a massive series upset. Giannis was injured in Game 1 of the series and missed Games 2 and 3. Ultimately, the Bucks lost the series 4-1, and Giannis will be out for blood in this playoff rematch. Including the playoffs, Giannis has gone over this number in 3 of his last 4 healthy games against the Heat. Giannis will get his revenge.
I’m going to keep riding this over until the lines adjust. Simmons is in a make-or-break season for his career outlook. Through the Nets first two games, he has had 18 and 19 rebounds and assists. The Nets get to face one of the NBA’s softest defenses Monday night against the Hornets. Charlotte is allowing the third most rebounds per game, and last season they were also bottom three in rebounds allowed per game. Simmons’ usage rate is down again so far this season, but with Center Nicolas Claxton out again for the Nets, Simmons will be their top rebounder on the floor.
Revenge game narrative? Check. No one on the Wizards to defend him? Check. There is always the risk of a blowout ruining a player prop, but this spread is surprisingly closer than I expected it to be. Porzingis should be able to get his tonight from all over the floor. The Wizards are allowing the second-highest percentage of three-pointers at 43.3%. The “Unicorn” is proving this season why he was given that nickname early in his career.
Cunningham has looked like his explosive self through the season’s first three games for the Pistons. He has scored 30 and 25 points in two of three games, and we can expect him to be busy trying to keep up with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander on Monday night. Cade is leading the Pistons in field goal attempts by a wide margin, and the Thunder are once again struggling to slow down opposing guards.
As a team, the Detroit Pistons have been dominating the boards. They have three players all averaging double-digit rebounds so far. Duren leads the way with 15.3 rebounds per game. He has had an insane 24.3 rebound chances per game and has turned that into games with 15, 17, and 14 rebounds, respectively! I cashed in on his double-double at plus money, but books have adjusted to his output heading into the fourth game of the season. A matchup with the Thunder presents another terrific spot for the second-year man from Memphis to dominate the glass. OKC has allowed the third most rebounds per game to opposing centers so far. The Pistons are a young and exciting team just like the Thunder, just not quite playoff-ready, but they will battle on a nightly basis because of the play of guys like Duren!
Who's stock is up and down for Dynasty leagues
After playing really well off the bench in Atlanta’s first two games, Johnson got the opportunity to start on Sunday. He posted a 14/7/1/2/1 line with two 3-pointers and helped the Hawks get their first win of the season. His play was already helping his value ascend, but a permanent place in the starting unit will skyrocket him up the ranks. Hopefully this wasn’t matchup dependent to deal with Giannis Antetokounmpo and Brook Lopez, though with Atlanta hosting Minnesota on Monday, it would be shocking if they switched up their starting unit.
Not that anyone really questioned this, but Thomas is an elite scorer. He just needs the opportunity. Brooklyn has leaned on him through their first two games of the season, and he averaged 33 points while shooting a scorching 62.5% from the floor. It’s fun to ride the hype train, and Thomas may have some more incredible scoring nights. However, he’s not going to continue to shoot over 60% from the field, so it may be smart to sell high on Thomas.
The first two games of the season have been a bit of a mixed bag for Williams. He was awesome against Atlanta, but he put up a stinker and got into foul trouble against Detroit. I’m expecting him to play more like he did against the Hawks than he did against the Pistons more often than not. If a manager in your league overreacts to what he did in game two, remember what he did against Clint Capela and Onyeka Okongwu in game one and buy low.
Jarrett Allen has yet to suit up this season, which has allowed us the opportunity to see what Mobley looks like as the starting center. The first game against Brooklyn wasn’t great (10/6 with two blocks). Game two against the Thunder was better (14/15 with two blocks). However, with Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland also out on Saturday, Mobley dominated down low with 33 points, 14 rebounds and three blocks. When the team is healthy, he won’t see this many offensive opportunities (23 shots against Indiana on Saturday). However, he’ll be the face of the franchise one day, and this game was incredibly encouraging.
Dallas has only played two games so far, with Lively recording a double-double in the first one off the bench and playing a limited role despite starting in the second. However, don’t get discouraged. Brooklyn was without Nicolas Claxton, so they didn’t really play a center for Lively to match up with. Jason Kidd adapted to the small ball unit, which limited Lively. Dallas shouldn’t play many teams that don’t have a center, so we’ll get a better look at Lively moving forward.
With each passing game, Duren’s value rises more and more. It’s early, but he has been a top ten player in fantasy basketball so far, with averages of 18 points, 15.3 rebounds, 4 assists and 2.7 blocks while shooting 80% from the floor and 75% from the line. He has been dominant so far in year two, and the managers that have him rostered should continue to enjoy the ride. He always had a lot of upside, but doing this before turning 20 is incredibly impressive.
Let’s be patient here. Scoot has been worse than I expected, but it’s important to examine the context. Portland is a bad team that has arguably been worse than expected. Anfernee Simons is now hurt, which puts even more pressure on Scoot. Rookie point guards often struggle early on, but it doesn’t mean that they won’t pan out. If a manager in your league is panicking, buy low. Scoot is going to be incredible, but it isn’t going to happen from day one, and that’s okay.
George dominated Summer League and had a solid preseason. He had a limited role over their first two games, but he played 27 minutes against Phoenix in their last game, with Talen Horton-Tucker playing just 16 as the starting point guard. There aren’t many rookies that have been able to start this season, but George could move into the starting unit soon. He had 12 points, seven rebounds and six assists off the bench in their last game. His value will skyrocket if he takes over the starting point guard job, so acquire him before that if you’re interested.
A league-wide look at teams' key injuries
Injuries are a never-ending problem with NBA basketball and taking advantage of their fill-ins can be one of the keys to winning in any fantasy situation, whether it be DFS, season-long or any other format you can think of. Each week we’ll take a look at the injury report on Wednesdays and recommend replacement players and other impacts of what the report looks like.
Since we’re just a couple of days into the season, the report is a bit light this week, but as we saw on Tuesday night, the absence of Draymond Green (ankle) and Bradley Beal (back) prompted guys like Jonathan Kuminga and Josh Okogie to get the attention of fantasy managers. Here’s a look at what injuries might create opportunities for players who may not have even been drafted in your league. And we’ll take a look at every team’s starting lineup that is in action tonight, since the injury season isn’t quite upon us.
Atlanta Hawks - No significant injuries outside of Wesley Matthews (calf). This shouldn’t have an impact on Wednesday’s game but Jalen Johnson is a guy fantasy managers will want to keep an eye on everywhere. If he goes off early, think about scooping him up in your league.
Boston Celtics - The Celtics’ injury report is clean heading into Wednesday’s opener and Derrick White is a favorite sleeper in Boston. Additionally, Peyton Pritchard had a fun preseason and will be worth keeping an eye on tonight.
Brooklyn Nets - Dariq Whitehead is the only Net showing up on the report and I can’t wait to see what Mikal Bridges, Nic Claxton and Ben Simmons do on Wednesday night.
Charlotte Hornets - The Hornets’ injury report is loaded with names, but the key is that the starters are intact here, meaning LaMelo Ball, Terry Rozier, Gordon Hayward, P.J. Washington and Mark Williams should all have a fun night against the Hawks. If Washington went undrafted in your league, think about picking him up. Miles Bridges may not play at all this season, which would be big for PJW.
Chicago Bulls - The Bulls’ injury report is clean and we won’t see Lonzo Ball this season. Coby White looks like the starting point guard for the Bulls and he appeared to turn a corner late last season and looked very good in the preseason. If he was undrafted in your league, he’s going to be worth a look. If he goes to work early in this one be ready to pull the trigger on him. Patrick Williams is another player to keep a close eye on early on Wednesday.
Cleveland Cavaliers - Darius Garland (hamstring) is iffy for tonight and if he can’t go Ty Jerome and Caris LeVert are going to be interesting streaming options. Donovan Mitchell is the star of this team and my guess is that Garland will power through his injury on Cleveland’s opening night.
Dallas Mavericks - Kyrie Irving (groin) should be good to go while Luka Doncic (calf) is no longer feeling pain, meaning both players should be ready for Wednesday night. Just make sure that Luka is good to go before locking him into lineups. Josh Green, Grant Williams, Dereck Lively and Jaden Hardy are the other Mavericks who might make some noise against the Spurs tonight, but I don’t really trust any of them.
Denver Nuggets - Nikola Jokic triple-doubled on Tuesday with 29 points, 13 rebounds and 11 assists and all five starters scored in double figures (Aaron Gordon, Michael Porter Jr., Jamal Murray, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope). Gordon scored 15 with a full stat line, MPJ had a 12 & 12 double-double, Murray racked up 21 points and six dimes, and KCP came through with 20 points, three steals and a couple of 3-pointers.
Detroit Pistons - Bojan Bogdanovic (calf), Isaiah Livers (ankle) and Monte Morris (quad) are all out for the Pistons, but their starting lineup of Cade Cunningham, Jaden Ivey, Ausar Thompson, Isaiah Stewart and Jalen Duren should all be good to go against the Heat on Wednesday. If Thompson or Ivey weren’t drafted in your league, think about pouncing on them if they get off to a good start tonight.
Golden State Warriors - The Warriors got 27 points from Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson had 15 and Chris Paul got some revenge against his former team with 14 points, six rebounds and nine assists, despite hitting just 4-of-15 shots. He only started because Draymond Green was out with an ankle injury and I don’t trust CP3 this year. Jonathan Kuminga came off the bench for 12 points, six rebounds, two steals and a block, but it still feels like Steve Kerr is never actually going to turn him loose.
Houston Rockets - The Rockets are at Orlando on Wednesday and Tari Eason and Victor Oladipo are out. Fred VanVleet, Jalen Green, Dillon Brooks, Jabari Smith and Alperen Sengun should all be good to go and I’m excited to see if Smith can build on last year’s success. Sengun is also a popular fantasy play this season and should have a field day against Wendell Carter Jr.
Indiana Pacers - The Pacers host the Wizards tonight and have a clean injury report. Starters Tyrese Haliburton, Bennedict Mathurin, Bruce Brown, Obi Toppin and Myles Turner look like the starters. Mathurin, Brown and Toppin are all worth keeping a close eye on if they went undrafted in your league while Buddy Hield should make some nice noise off the Pacer bench as a 3-point specialist.
Los Angeles Clippers - The Clippers host Portland and Bones Hyland, Terance Mann and Josh Primo are all on the injury report, not that it matters. The good news is that Russell Westbrook, Paul George, Kawhi Leonard, Robert Covington and Ivica Zubac are all playing. If Covington gets off to a hot start he’ll be worth a look, but should be a hit-or-miss player on most nights, depending on what his teammates are doing.
L.A. Lakers - The Lakers fell to the Nuggets on Tuesday night and Anthony Davis threw away a solid first half by failing to score a single point in the second half of the game, ruining fantasy managers’ nights along the way. Jarred Vanderbilt sat out for the Lakers and Taurean Prince came through for fantasy managers with 18 points and four 3-pointers on 6-of-8 shooting. Keep a close eye on him in case he does it again on Thursday against the Suns. LeBron James led the way in Tuesday’s loss with a 21-8-5 line and all five starters (Davis, Prince, James, D’Angelo Russell, Austin Reaves) scored in double figures.
Memphis Grizzlies - Santi Aldama is out tonight due to an ankle injury along with Brandon Clarke (Achilles) and Ja Morant (suspension), so Xavier Tillman should get all the work he can handle against the Kings. Tillman is a nice streamer/DFS option and was also a popular late pick in fantasy drafts when it was announced that Steven Adams would miss the entire season (knee). Aldama will return to eat into Tillman’s minutes, but as long as Aldama is out, Tillman’s the play here. Marcus Smart, Desmond Bane, Ziaire Williams and Jaren Jackson Jr. should round out the starting lineup for Memphis and Williams is another guy to keep a close eye on tonight. I’m fully expecting for Bane and JJJ to go off tonight.
Miami Heat - The Heat host the Pistons and are fairly healthy, sans Haywood Highsmith and Josh Richardson, who are both out tonight. The Heat should start Tyler Herro, Caleb Martin, Jimmy Butler, Kevin Love and Bam Adebayo and it’s a little surprising how much Martin is being forgotten about in fantasyland. Especially once Butler starts missing games for Miami. This could be the last hurrah for Love and I’m not expecting much.
Milwaukee Bucks - Cameron Payne is iffy with a thigh injury while the rest of the team should be healthy when they host the Sixers on Thursday. Everyone is anxious to see Damian Lillard and Giannis Antetokounmpo play together in Game 1 and they’ll likely be joined by Malik Beasley, Khris Middleton and Brook Lopez in the starting lineup. No one is talking about Beasley, so I’m interested to see what he does in the opener.
Minnesota Timberwolves - Jaylen Clark and Jaden McDaniels are both out for the Wolves tonight, which shouldn’t make an impact on what they do. Minnesota will start Mike Conley, Anthony Edwards, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Karl-Anthony Towns and Rudy Gobert. I think Ant is about ready to take over the NBA universe with a huge season, Conley has become a forgotten man in fantasy at age 36 and we’re still waiting for NAW to have a breakout season. If Towns can stay healthy he’s going to be a fantasy steal this season. Kyle Anderson should be the best bench player here and could make some noise for Sixth Man of the Year if he gets off to a good start.
New Orleans Pelicans - The Pelicans are at Memphis and get this - they’re kind of healthy. Jose Alvarado, Naji Marshall and Trey Murphy are all out but both Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram should be healthy and ready to go. The health of those two is one of the biggest questions in fantasy this season and if they can both stay on the court, the sky’s the limit for the Pelicans. Herbert Jones is too much of an offensive liability for most fantasy managers, while C.J. McCollum and Jonas Valanciunas are simply vanilla flavors without much upside at this point in their careers. A lot of folks think Zion is going to have a big year but I’d like to see him make it through Week 1 in one piece before getting too excited.
New York Knicks - The Knicks have a clean injury slate and Jalen Brunson, Quentin Grimes, RJ Barrett, Julius Randle and Mitchell Robinson are expected to start against the Celtics tonight. Brunson is a fantasy monster, Grimes is a fantasy sleeper, Barrett is a volume scorer and a fantasy liability, and we’ll all be waiting to see if Robinson can finally put it all together in year six.
Oklahoma City Thunder - The Thunder visit the Bulls and are at the top of my list for teams to watch on NBA League Pass this season. Kenrich Williams and Jalin Williams are both out for OKC but starters Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Josh Giddey, Luguentz Dort, Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren are good to go and we’re all dying to see how Holmgren and the Thunder will play this season. No one is talking about Dort and I didn’t draft him anywhere, as the Thunder just have too many other weapons to be excited about. Look for the Thunder to try to make a statement on opening night.
Orlando Magic - The Magic will host Houston and will be without Kevon Harris, while Gary Harris will be a game-time call due to a groin injury. Those injuries shouldn’t have an impact and the Magic should start Markelle Fultz, Jalen Suggs, Franz Wagner, Paolo Banchero and Wendell Carter Jr. in Game 1. It will be interesting to see if Fultz and Banchero can take a step forward this season, Wagner looks like a star in the making, and WCJ and Suggs should be serviceable fantasy players, especially in deeper leagues.
Philadelphia 76ers - We won’t see the Sixers until Thursday night when they visit the Bucks and will come into that one mostly whole. The key missing piece will be James Harden, who isn’t likely to play a game for the Sixers this season while feuding with Daryl Morey. It’s anyone’s guess as to when and where Harden will land somewhere else, and I’ve grown a bit tired of waiting. Harden has become an afterthought to anyone who didn’t draft him in fantasy. Tyrese Maxey and De’Anthony Melton should both be fun in fantasy without Harden in the fold, Joel Embiid will try to win the MVP Award, and starters Tobias Harris and P.J. Tucker remain two of the most boring fantasy players in the NBA.
Phoenix Suns - The new-look Suns got a tough road win at Golden State on Tuesday as Devin Booker scored 32 points. Bradley Beal was out with a back injury and Josh Okogie stepped up with 17 points and five rebounds. I’m not messing with him yet, but it was an interesting debut. On the flip side, Grayson Allen missed all six of his shots and was a total dud as an injury replacement for Beal. Kevin Durant and Jusuf Nurkic both played well and Nurkic was particularly exciting with 14 points, 14 boards and a block in 28 minutes. If he can stay healthy he should be a very serviceable center this season. Devin Booker and Bradley Beal are both doubtful for play on Thursday.
Portland Trail Blazers - Ish Wainwright is out for the Blazers and they’ll likely start Scoot Henderson, Anfernee Simons, Matisse Thybulle, Jerami Grant and Deandre Ayton. Ayton should be playing with a chip on his shoulder, big things are expected from Simons with Damian Lillard now in Milwaukee and Shaedon Sharpe is expected to make plenty of noise this season whether he’s starting or coming off the bench.
Sacramento Kings - The Kings are at Utah and will be without Trey Lyles (calf), while Chris Duarte is questionable with a knee injury. Starters De’Aaron Fox, Kevin Huerter, Harrison Barnes, Keegan Murray and Domantas Sabonis will look to pick up where they left off in last year’s dream season and I’m expecting Murray to take a big leap forward this season. Sasha Vezenkov is a deep fantasy sleeper and will be worth keeping an eye on and Malik Monk could be sneaky in deep leagues.
San Antonio Spurs - Center Zach Collins is on the injury report with an illness but our guess is it will take more than a head cold to keep him from playing on opening night. The Spurs should be starting a lineup of Jeremy Sochan, Devin Vassell, Keldon Johnson, Victor Wembanyama and Collins, with Tre Jones contributing solidly off the bench. I think the Spurs are going to be better than advertised and Wednesday’s matchup against Dallas should be one of the most watched games on League Pass tonight. Wemby is going to EAT as there is no one in Dallas who can stop him.
Toronto Raptors - The Raptors will host the Timberwolves and are healthy except for Christian Koloko (illness), which will have no fantasy impact. Dennis Schroder looks like the new starting point guard in Toronto with Fred VanVleet in Houston and he’ll be joined by O.G. Anunoby, Scottie Barnes, Pascal Siakam and Jakob Poeltl in the starting unit. Barnes has serious breakout potential this season and it should be fun to see what he can do tonight against the Wolves.
Utah Jazz - The Jazz have a clean health report and should start Jordan Clarkson, Talen Horton-Tucker, Lauri Markkanen, John Collins and Walker Kessler. Clarkson is under the fantasy radar, THT had a nice preseason and has a lot of fantasy managers excited to see what he can do, Markkanen will look to build on last season’s success, Collins is looking for new life with a new team and Kessler will try to lead the league in blocked shots, as well as take a big step forward after an impressive rookie season. This team should be deceptively good and THT may end up being one of the hotter pickups off the waiver wire in Week 1 if things go well tonight.
Washington Wizards - The Wizards visit the Pacers and will be without Johnny Davis, Anthony Gill and Landry Shamet. While they’ll be one of the worst teams in the league in reality, there are a lot of fantasy positives here. Can Jordan Poole lead the league in scoring? Yes. Will Kyle Kuzma have a career year playing in his shadow? Yes. Can Daniel Gafford flirt with leading the league in blocks and become a dominant fantasy center? Possibly. Additionally, Bilal Coulibaly could start over Deni Avdija and be a steals monster if it happens. He’ll be a hot waiver-wire pickup if things go well on opening night. Tyus Jones should also be a solid starting fantasy point guard running the offense in Washington. If you somehow drafted Deni Avdija, I’d recommend being ready to pull the trigger if Coulibaly gets hot early on Wednesday.
Top choices for Thursday's NBA lineup stacks
The NBA season is officially underway, and Wednesday was a blast with 24 teams in action and no major injuries to speak of. We’ve got a two-game slate on Thursday as the Sixers visit the Bucks, and the Lakers host the Suns.
The Sportstopia Contrarian Edge Optimizer is the elite tool to use when setting your DFS lineups and you can try it out for an entire week for just $1.
Here are some of the plays the Optimizer and I both like heading into Thursday night’s two-game DFS slate.
With both Devin Booker and Bradley Beal unlikely to play for the Suns tonight this should be all KD all the time for the Suns. There are big names to choose from tonight but Durant’s usage should be through the roof, and I think you have to find a way to get him into your lineups. Okogie should also benefit from the absence of Booker/Beal, while Jordan Goodwin could see a ton of minutes running the point for the Suns.
It is possible to put together a nice lineup with Durant, Davis and Embiid in a stars and scrubs build as several scrubs should be able to get loose without Booker and Beal not in the mix for the Suns. And Goodwin’s low-price tag of $3600 should make him a popular play tonight.
Stacking the injured Suns tonight should pay off and Goodwin is that mix for me. While this lineup doesn’t include Durant, I’d find a way to try to get him in it unless you want to go contrarian and fade him.
Getting the use of the Contrarian Edge Optimizer for an entire week for just $1 is simply a deal too good to pass up. So hit the link, let the Optimizer set you some lineups, sit back and enjoy the NBA season.
Top NBA PrizePicks and Underdog options
NBA Opening Week continues Thursday night, and we have two more games to select our Underdog and PrizePicks plays. The TNT doubleheader features two showdowns between four teams with championship aspirations.
The first game features an Eastern Conference clash as Giannis Antetokounmpo and his new teammate Damian Lillard battle reigning MVP Joel Embiid and the Philadelphia 76ers. The second matchup pegs the new-look Phoenix Suns against the Los Angeles Lakers in LA’s home opener.
The Bucks were a juggernaut at home last season, going 32-8. Giannis just renewed his contract with the Bucks, and he will be on a revenge tour all season long. I believe he will push for league MVP once again.
He has gone over this number in 15 of his last 16 matchups with the 76ers! That’s an insane rate that we can’t ignore. The Bucks made the most significant move in the offseason when they acquired Lillard, but they didn’t add to its frontcourt.
Brook Lopez will defend Embiid often, which leaves Giannis free to gobble up the boards in the Bucks opener.
Maxey is in for a massive increase in usage with James Harden out. Apparently, the Beard was ready to rejoin his teammates, but the team left him at home. His future is in limbo which is likely going to plague Philadelphia until it is resolved.
One thing we can rely on is Maxey will lead the 76ers alongside Joel Embiid. In his last three games against the Bucks, Maxey has gone over this number. Milwaukee traded its best defender Jrue Holiday during the summer.
In 14 games last season without Harden, Maxey surpassed this number nine times, and in two of the unders, he finished with 21.
I expect this to be a popular pick tonight, but I still like it.
I’m double dipping with Maxey, who is primed for a breakout season. Many experts have believed in his talent, but he’s been sort of stuck waiting in the wings throughout his first three seasons. The 76ers need him to be an All-Star caliber player if they want to be a contender, and I think he will be.
Without Harden on the floor, he reeled in at least four rebounds in seven of 14 games and in two of his last three games versus the Bucks. Milwaukee was in the bottom half of the NBA in rebounds allowed per game last season, and Maxey will see increased minutes this season.
This number seems a bit low with his projected increase in usage.
Speaking of an increase in usage. How about the reigning MVP? While I expect Maxey to take a huge leap, Embiid is the primary ball handler for the 76ers.
In his last 6 games against the Bucks, Embiid has produced at least 5 assists 5 times. He played 15 games last season without Harden. He had at least 5 assists in 12 of them. That’s an 80% hit rate on this line.
We can count on Embiid to play big minutes and go over the number as he kicks off his 2023 season.
I’m going back to the well on Davis, who disappeared in the opener against the Nuggets. The Lakers need AD to lead the way this season. He is the focal point of this team.
Davis led the Lakers in shot attempts in their opener but shot a poor percentage and didn’t make a shot in the second half.
The Suns shipped out Deandre Ayton for Jusuf Nurkic in the summer, and Nurkic isn’t known for his defense. It’s not often I agree with Stephen A., but Davis is a rollercoaster, and tonight should be a peak after his poor performance Tuesday.
Dr. A's stacks and lineup options for opening night
It’s finally here and our long wait is officially over! The NBA season starts on Tuesday night with the Lakers visiting the Nuggets at 7:30 p.m. ET and the Warriors hosting the Suns at 10 p.m. Both games are on TNT, so you’ll be able to catch all the action.
(Meanwhile, Sportstopia's Contrarian Edge Optimizer is the elite tool to use when setting your DFS lineups and you can try it out for an entire week for just $1).
Bradley Beal is out for the Suns with a gimpy back and SG/SF Grayson Allen could be a strong play. He’s just $4900 at DraftKings and the Optimizer likes him as well. The Optimizer has Allen going off for 19.45 points against the Warriors and he looks like one of the better value picks on a two-game night.
Draymond Green (ankle) has also been ruled out, which should clear the way for Chris Paul and Kevon Looney to get some extra minutes. But the player I like to shine in his place is SF/PF Jonathan Kuminga. The Optimizer also loves him, projecting him to score 28.44 fantasy points at a salary of just $4600 at FanDuel.
Another player I’ve been high on during drafting season is Andrew Wiggins of Golden State. He’s a power forward at DraftKings at a salary of $5500 and a projected point total of 30.41. Wiggins was out for much of last season due to various injuries and an extended personal leave, but he’s back, healthy and should be ready to put up big numbers for the Dubs.
I also like the idea of stacking Warriors and a lineup featuring PG/SG Stephen Curry (Draft Kings - $9200, 46.41 points, FanDuel - $10000, 43.71 points), PG Chris Paul (Draft Kings - $5600, 31.52 points, FanDuel - $8000, 33.58 points), PF Wiggins (Draft Kings - $5500, 30.54 points, FanDuel - $6800, 30.16 points) and C Kevon Looney (Draft Kings - $5300, 29.66 points, FanDuel - $5400, 29.83 points) makes a lot of sense to both me and the Optimizer.
Other players to consider when setting lineups tonight on DraftKings include PG/SG Devin Booker ($8300, 43.45 points), Taurean Prince ($3500, 17.87 points), C Nikola Jokic ($10000, 56.94 points) and Jordan Goodwin ($3300, 16.93 points).
Goodwin is cheap and could play a big role with Beal out and putting together some ‘stars and scrubs’ lineups shouldn’t be hard to do with the injuries in Phoenix and Golden State. LeBron James is another Optimizer favorite and comes with a $9300 salary and a projection of 42.29 fantasy points.
Getting the use of the Contrarian Edge Optimizer tool for an entire week for just $1 is simply a deal too good to pass up. So hit the link, let the Optimizer set you some lineups, sit back and enjoy the opening night of the NBA season.
Our top NBA PrizePicks and Underdog options
Tuesday marks the tip-off of the 2023-24 NBA season, and we have two games for our Underdog and PrizePicks plays. The TNT doubleheader features two Western Conference showdowns. The first game features a rematch of the Western Conference finals with LeBron James and the Lakers facing Nikola Jokic and the defending NBA champion Nuggets. The second matchup pegs the Golden State Warriors and Steph Curry against the new-look Phoenix Suns.
The Lakers have revenge on their mind, and I believe they are the correct side in the opener. Davis will lead the way for the Lakers this season simply because they need him to. AD averaged 26.8 points per game in the West finals. Hopefully we’ll get a full, healthy season from ‘The Brow’.
The Nuggets allowed the most steals per game last season to opposing power forwards. The King truly is positionless, but at this point in his career, he will mostly play power forward with Davis at center.
The Lakers have added depth to its backcourt, so LeBron will defend the post often alongside Davis. James usually has huge opening night performances, and even in year 21, I think we’ll see King James active all over the floor.
LeBron and the Lakers want to make a statement that their run to the WCF wasn’t a fluke, so I expect him to play significant minutes despite it being Game 1. He topped this number in 10 of 16 playoff games last season, and playing the extra minutes tonight will help him get there again.
It’s a no-brainer to back the former MVP on opening night at home in some capacity. He topped this number in three of the four playoff games versus the Lakers last season and in 36 games during the regular season. It doesn’t hurt that the Lakers allowed the sixth-most rebounds per game to opposing centers last season ago.
It sounds like we’ll have to wait a few more days until we get a complete look at the Suns new roster. Bradley Beal is currently doubtful to play in the opener, and Devin Booker is a game-time decision.
Thus, Durant likely will be the focal point, so it’s easy for me to select his over. KD averaged over 29 points per game last season, and I expect him to waste no time to get shots up.
The Suns have a completely revamped roster outside of Durant and Booker. The Warriors will be without Draymond Green tonight, which opens the door even wider for Nurkic to have a solid debut with his new team.
Golden State was bottom 10 last season in points and rebounds allowed to opposing centers. Nurkic has topped this number in six of his last eight matchups against the Warriors, albeit as a member of the Trail Blazers.
NBA Experts Corey Parson and Steve "Dr. A" Alexander will recap Monday's games and preview the limited Tuesday Slate of NBA Games. We'll also break down the James Harden Trade to the Clippers. Check-in daily on the Fantasy Fire and Ice Podcast for injury updates, breaking NBA news, and player profiles.
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