Steezy A. Smith is a Sports Journalist who has been covering the Seattle Seahawks for the last couple of years. In addition, Mr. Smith has been playing fantasy football since before he was even a teenager. His real name is Calvin Domingo & he currently resides in Seattle, Washington.
For all of his work, check him out on YouTube & follow him on Instagram & X @steezyasmith
Steezy lays out the top DFS fades for Week 3
It’s Friday and you guys know what that means -- time to fade ‘em up, Week 3 edition. Of the five guys I listed as ‘fades’ last week, three of them put up season-highs in fantasy points. Perhaps they’re a weekly reader of mine and used my analysis as fuel?
Either way, let’s hope the following players can escape the wrath of my doghouse as well — after the conclusion of Week 3 (all salaries courtesy of DraftKings).
Watson’s ownership percentage of 4.3% is higher than Josh Allen’s, Tua’s, Dak Prescott, and Justin Fields’ - which is bizarre given how he’s looked in his last eight games as a Brown.
Sure, QB14 at cost isn’t exorbitant, but he has yet to complete at least 60 percent of his passes nor average 6 yards or more per attempt. Plus, he’s been sacked nine times in two games for a team that lost its workhorse in Nick Chubb. No thanks.
For those wondering whether or not the Houston version of Watson is gone for good, these next few weeks will be very telling. He will have to carry the offense ala his Texan days.
Until then, I’d advise fantasy owners everywhere to stay far and away as there’s other options with more upside and cheaper.
Once upon a time, Dillon looked like the future of the Packers running back room. If you recall, he rushed for over 800 yards and had 7 total touchdowns playing alongside 2021 MVP Aaron Rodgers.
That’s no longer certain.
Dating back to Week 15 of last season, Dillon hasn’t cracked 4 ypc in his past six games. Not only has the efficiency cratered, his usage in the passing game has become almost non-existent as well.
Coupled with the fact that his Packers are taking on a formidable Saints defense that have been very stingy against the run – including holding Derrik Henry to under 70 yards in Week 1 – and I’m beginning to lose hope for Dillon as far as his fantasy prospects.
If Aaron Jones is ready to go Sunday, it might be all the more reason to fade Dillon, regardless of cost.
I never thought I’d do this, but I’m going to fade a top 5 player at his position – just for this week.
Although not entirely his fault, the status of Cincy QB Joe Burrow is still up in the air for Monday Night Football as of Friday. Given that he likely won’t be 100 percent even if he does play, I have a difficult time believing in Chase if Jake Browning is the one throwing him passes against a very underrated Rams secondary.
There’s a crazy stat going around that Chase has the least yards through two games (70) for somebody that has at least 15 targets.
Ultimately, his supreme talent will win out. Even if he produces more against the Rams than he has this season – relative to cost -- you can find cheaper options with similar production.
If I get this wrong, I’ll never fade a top 5 at his position player ever again.
With just 6 receptions for 22 yards this season, Goedert hasn’t been anywhere near the top-5 TE he was projected to be, much less his current price point.
While we all knew he was going to be the third or fourth option in the passing game, even that seems to be in jeopardy given the heroics of the Eagles’ RB room.
To top it off, a matchup against underrated Bucs safeties Antoine Winfield Jr and Ryan Neal doesn’t exactly scream bounceback. They’ve yet to allow a TE to eclipse 40 receiving yards.
If you’re betting on a pass-catcher to bounce back for Philadelphia this week, I’d pivot towards AJ Brown instead.
Even if Watson can play, Marshon Lattimore, Tyrann Mathieu, Paulson Adebo, and the rest of that nasty Saints defense will do everything in their power to make it look as if he didn’t play at all.
Hamstring injuries are tricky, especially for players who are reliant on speed and explosiveness in getting down the field. In addition, Watson’s boom-or-bust style of play is too risky to insert into lineups when we don’t know if he’s going to be 100 percent and whether or not he’ll be on a snap count.
I’m fading Watson in all formats of fantasy this week, DFS be damned.
Steezy lays out the best low-cost values for Week 3
Another week, another bargain bin column from yours truly! Week 1 was an absolute atrocity, but I did a lot better hand-picking players from the well of bargains in Week 2, so let’s keep that train going!
Zack Moss, DJ Moore and Michael Thomas were a few of the guys I highlighted as ‘bargain’ plays last week and you probably hit it big if you followed my advice. If not, then this is your week! (all salaries courtesy of DraftKings)
If I told you that entering Week 3, Mayfield was top five in QB rating and top 10 in QBR, would you believe me?
Shoot, if I hadn’t done the research beforehand, I wouldn’t even believe it myself. Having yet to turn the ball over, Mayfield has been an integral part of the Bucs’ 2-0 start.
Now, with the Eagles on tap for a Week 3 showdown on ‘Monday Night Football,’ expect more Mayfield mania. The Eagles have allowed both Mac Jones and Kirk Cousins to throw for over 300 yards and three touchdowns in back-to-back weeks, so their pass defense has looked more susceptible than we’re accustomed to seeing.
And with TB wide receiver Mike Evans looking like a supernova (you can’t forget about Chris Godwin either), Mayfield has the stage set for him to continue balling out.
Priced outside of the top 20 QBs in DFS salary, Mayfield at $5,300 should be the closest thing to larceny we’ve seen in the NFL since the DeAndre Hopkins trade to the Cardinals.
Prior to this season, the 2022 fifth-round RB had the same amount of touchdowns as both you and I – ZERO.
CRAZY right?
Fast forward to Week 3, and Williams is the NFL’s leader in scrimmage touchdowns with four. If you weren’t a believer, I hope that stat changes your mind.
Want further proof of just how entrenched Williams is in the Rams backfield? Look no further than the latest news surrounding his soon-to-be ex-teammate, Cam Akers. Having been hyped all offseason long by Sean McVay, it’s not a coincidence that the moment Williams starts balling out, Akers is reportedly on the trade block.
Not only is Kyren (a dope name, by the way) the Rams’ goal-line back, he was second in targets last week against the 49ers with 10 and has been praised for his pass catching ability, so we know Matthew Stafford is going to look for him every time he drops back.
Make no mistake about it, Williams is a low-end RB1 for the rest of the season, so lock it in! I assure you he won’t be had at such a discount after Week 3, so pounce on the value while it’s still there.
Maybe third-wheeling isn’t the worst thing in the world after all? Despite being behind both Justin Jefferson and TJ Hockenson in the targets pecking order, Addison has scored a touchdown and racked up over 60 receiving yards in two straight games to start the season, albeit on limited volume (7 receptions on 11 targets).
With OC Wes Phillips on record stating that Addison’s role is only going to grow as the season progresses, I’d get on board the Addison train while he’s still a bargain.
One more nugget to note: LAC-MIN is expected to be the highest-scoring matchup of the Week 3 slate with an over/under of 54. It will be a buffet for most players. Start Addison with confidence in this one.
Sitting at WR6 in season-long leagues on the year thus far, Collins has been a target hog, averaging 10 per game and parlaying that into monster production: 13 catches for 226 yards (5th in the NFL in receiving).
With an ownership percentage sitting at 19.6% (at the time of this writing), Collins is being inserted into more lineups than Tyreek Hill, Stefon Diggs, Ja’Marr Chase, Davantae Adams, etc. That doesn’t mean everything, but it does mean more people are taking notice.
One more thing: Collins’ Texans are +9.5-point underdogs against the Jaguars, so game script could also be in his favor.
At WR38, don’t be surprised if Collins finishes another week as a top 10 WR.
Is Henry on his way to capturing his 2021 form with the Patriots? If you’ve forgotten, Henry totaled 9 touchdowns and 603 receiving yards in his first season in Foxborough.
Through two games this season, Henry is the No. 2 TE on the season and has finished as a top 2 TE in back-to-back weeks (5+ catches, 50+ yards, and a touchdown in both games).
Now that the Patriots are passing the ball with more regularity, Henry seems to be one of Mac Jones’ favorite targets and preferred target in the red zone.
Ranked outside of the top 10 TEs as far as salary, it’s only a matter of time until Henry makes his way into the top 5 TE conversation; here’s your chance to buy low now while you can!
After a subpar performance (by his standards) on the ground in Week 1 vs the Lions, Pacheco got going against the Jacksonville Jaguars, compiling 70 yards rushing on only 12 carries (5.8 per carry).
Being that his team is the largest favorite in the Week 3 slate (-12.5), Pacheco should have game flow in his favor, which should result in a season-high in touches and, theoretically speaking, more fantasy points.
In addition, the Bears defense has been very kind RBs so far, giving up 103 scrimmage yards (and a TD) to Tampa Bay’s Rachaad White just last week and 127 scrimmage yards and two TDs to Aaron Jones in Week 1.
If you’ve been keeping Pacheco on your bench, now’s the time to unleash him. With an 11% ownership rate (at the time of this writing), he’s being started in more lineups than Travis Etienne, Rhamondre Stevenson, Tony Pollard, etc. others are starting to catch on, so don’t be the person that’s late to the (Pacheco) party!
Check out Steezy's fades to see which players to avoid
A big shoutout to Matthew Stafford and Michael Pittman for proving me wrong in last week’s ‘Fades’ article. The goal this week? To ensure that everybody I list down below proves me right (just kidding, I’m always rooting for the players, but the fantasy world makes things tricky so sometimes it looks like you’re straddling the fence).
Without further ado, here are my biggest fades (at cost) at every position entering Week 2 (all salaries courtesy of FanDuel).
Nothing against Mr. Prescott, but if Josh Allen is going to turn the ball over four times (along with a pedestrian QB rating of 62.7) and single handedly cost his team a football game against the New York Jets in Week 1, how do you think the 2022 league leader in interceptions is going to fare against a defense that’s looking like one of the best, if not the BEST unit in all of football?
While Prescott hasn’t always been a turnover prone QB throughout his career, this Jets defense is no joke and could very realistically have Prescott looking like he’s seeing ghosts ala Sam Darnold.
Not only that, but Prescott could also be without a weapon in Brandin Cooks, who is dealing with a sprained MCL. Considering his price tag as the 10th-most expensive QB in DFS, there are plenty of QB’s you should consider inserting into your lineups at a much cheaper price who have matchups not nearly as daunting as Dakota’s.
One could argue that the Cowboys’ biggest weakness on defense last season was their subpar ability as a unit to stop the run. We’re only through Week 1 so it’s early, but the Cowboys only gave up 65 yards rushing to Giants RBs (on 15 total carries) to open the season, which doesn’t bode well for Dalvin Cook.
You know what else doesn’t bode well for Cook’s fantasy prospects? The presence of Breece Hall as his backfield mate. Having only finished with three more carries than his counterpart in the backfield, it is expected that Hall will play more of the snaps after having exploded for 127 on just 10 totes. Oh, and Hall’s surgically repaired knee is only going to get better as the week progresses.
Another factor hurting Cook’s fantasy value? The uncertainty revolving around his QB. Given that the Cowboys are almost SURELY going to load up the box to stop the run, running room could come at a premium.
Sure, Cook is likely to be used more out of the backfield, but if Zach Wilson can’t improve upon what he’s shown throughout his career, he’s going to hold everyone back alongside him on the offensive side of the ball.
I promise I don’t hate the New York Jets’ skill position players, but I do hate the matchup this week: Dallas. About as brutal as it gets! (the New York Giants will tell you all about it)
Like I mentioned above with Dalvin Cook, everything about the Jets offense has lost its luster since Aaron Rodgers went down with a torn Achilles and that includes entering-the-season fantasy darling and reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year Garrett Wilson. Stephon Gilmore.
Trevon Diggs. Zach Wilson. Those are the only three names/reasons you need to fade Wilson this week. A top-10 option at his position playing for an offense that will struggle to score points all season long at $7,400??? No thank you.
So, you’re telling me the Atlanta Falcons drafted elite pass catching prospects top 10 in back-to-back years only to have them RUN BLOCK OVER 50% OF THE TIME? My goodness, what are we doing here? Wouldn't you have been better off drafting offensive linemen or trading up for a QB?
(See my rant on our NFL Fantasy Fire and Ice episode from this past Wednesday).
While Pitts fared a little better than Drake London, two catches for 44 yards isn’t nearly enough when factoring in his price point. Until the Falcons show more competence and a willingness to involve their prized possessions at pass catcher, I’m staying away from both Pitts and London, despite the massive upside and talent they possess.
If you do the math, 80% of this article is made up of either Falcons or Jets, so shout out to those organizations for their help in contributing to this article.
Jokes aside, the same logic I used for Pitts applies to London. Not only is Atlanta allergic to passing the football, the jury is still out on QB Desmond Ridder. When he does pass the football, the RB’s are the primary targets.
Not to mention, do-it-all weapon Cordarrelle Patterson is expected to make his season debut, clouding the value of both London and Pitts even further.
And one more thing, Jaire Alexander is on the other side of the football waiting anxiously to make things hard for the second-year pro out of USC. I’m avoiding London in ALL FORMATS of fantasy this week.
Steezy's Bargain Bin: Great players, great prices
Wow, Week 1 was… bizarre -- to say the least. I don’t think I’ve ever finished with a worse ‘Pick ‘Em’ correct percentage than what I posted in any Week 1 before -- 50%.
Could the games have been scripted any crazier? Every single primetime game happened the exact opposite of what I and many others had forecasted.
Don’t worry, I’m not here to rant about my miscues, rather I’m here to be your version of Grocery Outlet, DFS style! (all salaries courtesy of FanDuel)
Having played six games so far in calendar year 2023 -- two regular season games and three playoff games -- Purdy has thrown only one interception. As efficient as it gets, I’m baffled Purdy is so cheap, given the plethora of weapons in his arsenal.
You can do a lot worse than Purdy as your starting QB, both in real life and in fantasy. He doesn’t have the highest upside, but his floor is stable enough to warrant starting consideration just about every week. Until I see him not perform, he’s a QB I love moving forward.
After having been held out of Week 1 (arm), Moss is expected to give it a go in Week 2 in Houston vs the Texans. With Jonathan Taylor still on the PUP list and rookie RB Evan Hull having been recently placed on IR (knee), this Colts backfield is ripe for the taking for Moss.
I’m worried about Deon Jackson’s ghastly Week 1 – 18 touches for 28 scrimmage yards and two lost fumbles. Moss averaged 83.5 rushing yards per game -- on 4.8 yards per carry -- in the last four games last season.
In a divisional matchup where Moss’ only competition for touches (goal-line included) is an already-banged up QB Anthony Richardson, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Moss rush for more than 100 yards in his first game back.
The memes about Toney’s hands (or lack thereof) have been hilarious, but let’s take a deeper dive into the numbers. He was targeted on 50% of his routes while only playng 26% of the snaps. He also tied for the team lead in targets with five.
People forget, he missed essentially all of training camp and the preseason because of a torn meniscus, so rust and a lack of rhythm was definitely a factor. Add in that Travis Kelce is likely to play Week 2 against the Jaguars, and there will be less attention on Toney in what is expected to be one of the highest-scoring games of the week.
Everyone’s down on Toney, but here’s your chance to come up with a potential steal, given his measly price point.
MT is back, baby! Perhaps FanDuel hasn’t caught on yet. C’mon y’all -- WR52? I know, I know. It’s just one game. But five receptions (on eight targets) for 61 yards in his first game back?
Clearly, the new Saints offense can support multiple pass catchers in fantasy, perhaps three given the emergence of Rashid Shaheed, and Thomas will benefit from that.
In a divisional matchup against the Carolina Panthers who’ll be missing promising young cornerback Jaycee Horn, I wouldn’t be surprised if Thomas clears 100 yards and puts up a vintage performance. He’ll only continue to earn Derek Carr’s trust throughout the season, and he will also have Chris Olave soaking up attention. Don’t be surprised if you find him in another one of these articles down the line.
As the season goes along, don’t be surprised if LaPorta ends up becoming a backend TE1. His usage in Week 1, along with his talent, supports that notion, even if the sample size is less than ideal.
As a guy who covers the Seattle Seahawks, I know how vulnerable Seattle can be in the middle of the field in defending the pass (and especially tight ends), and that’s where LaPorta will contribute for the Lions. In another matchup that’s expected to fill up the scoreboard, LaPorta is an absolute bargain as the TE20.
Look, I get it. Two receptions for 25 yards isn’t an ideal start to the season, but let’s not forget Moore had to go up against one of the best cornerbacks in all of football in Jaire Alexander of the Green Bay Packers.
That Bears offense was a mess, but the cheeseheads also boast one of the better units in the league, so take Moore’s Week 1’s performance with a grain of salt.
While I don’t want this to come off as downplaying their opponent -- the Buccaneers also boast a very athletic and nasty defense -- Tampa Bay doesn’t have a Jaire Alexander on the other side of the ball.
In addition, Moore has plenty of history going up against the Bucs, with and without Tom Brady, dating back to his time with the Carolina Panthers. Just last season alone, Moore compiled 13 receptions (on 20 targets) for 186 receiving yards and 2 touchdowns in two games against the Bucs. I expect him to bounce back. More Moore, please!
A breakdown of the NFL players probably worth avoiding
Just to preface, I’m not saying I don’t like the guys I list down below – I don’t like them at cost. If you can find cheaper alternatives, and ideally more production, then by all means!
Starting today, every Friday I’ll be dropping my list of DFS ‘fades’, so be sure to check back in and stay tapped in throughout the season so you know who to insert and NOT to insert in your lineups (all salaries courtesy of DraftKings).
Just ranked outside of the top 10 as far as QB salaries, Stafford is a guy I’m staying far and away from. Not only will he be without his favorite target in Cooper Kupp, he’ll be going up against one-time teammate Bobby Wagner, who’ll surely have inside information on some of the things the Rams like to do offensively.
In addition, Stafford and the Rams are playing in a hostile environment in Seattle with an unproven group of wide receivers and a questionable offensive line. Not to mention, with LAR-SEA being an in-division affair, points could be at a premium. You can do a lot better than Stafford at QB in your lineups for this weekend.
Statistically speaking, Mattison is set to go up against the wall that is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers run defense. As stout as they get, I’m not sure Mattison is going to find much running room, especially when he’s not the most explosive back (career yards per carry average of 4.1).
Volume will be there, I’m just not sure the efficiency and passing down work will be. Given the cost, you’re better off saving some money and going with a cheaper alternative who has an easier matchup.
I like Michael Pittman a lot more in real life than I do in fantasy as a wide receiver. Yes, he’s the Colts’ No. 1, but is the volume going to be there in what’s expected to be a run-heavy offense?
Also, how accurate will Anthony Richardson be in the pros? Having displayed a lot of chemistry with fellow rookie Josh Downs, I’m not sure the chemistry will be there right away with Pittman given the other options at pass catcher.
Kittle is another player I adore more in real life than I do in fantasy. While Brock Purdy altered that narrative somewhat with his penchant for targeting Kittle in the latter portion of the season last year, Kittle has been nursing a groin injury & more likely than not won’t be at 100%.
Yes, Kittle is one of the toughest players in the NFL and has a tendency to play injured, but given the dearth of options at Purdy’s disposal, coupled with the fact that Pittsburgh’s defense is no joke (not to mention, Heinz Field will be a very hostile environment) I’m staying away from Kittle this week, especially at a salary just south of $6,000 on top of the fact that there’s a bunch of tight ends flying under the radar.
Hamstring injuries can be tricky, and they tend to linger too (ask Cooper Kupp). Given the nature of that, I suspect the Broncos will keep Jeudy on a pitch count IF he even plays.
The matchup might be juicy against the Raiders & their porous secondary, but his health is not & won’t be until Week 2 at the earliest. There are plenty of receivers you can insert into your lineups that are not only cheaper, but that are 100% healthy. (Jahan Dotson anyone?)
Fill out your DFS roster with some of these inexpensive options
At long last, our first taste of non-preseason NFL football in seven months. A big shoutout to the Lions for showing the world they’re no longer “the same Lions” (Philly lost a good one in C.J. Gardner-Johnson by the way). I don’t care that the Chiefs didn’t have Travis Kelce and Chris Jones, they’re the defending Super Bowl champs for crying out loud!
Thankfully, the full NFL slate is ahead of us, with 15 matchups to go in Week 1. Starting today, I’ll be here every week giving you guys the best bargains when setting your DFS lineups to help give you the best bang for your buck! (all salaries courtesy of DraftKings)
The second-cheapest QB you can possibly plug into your lineups, Howell and the Commanders have the best possible matchup against a Arizona Cardinals team that’s expected to be the worst in the NFL.
After trading 25-year old Isaiah Simmons – who still has his best football in front of him – for the measly cost of a 7th-round pick to the Giants, it’s obvious the Cardinals are “tanking.”
With star WR Terry McLaurin expected to play (toe), Howell will have his full allotment of weapons, and you can’t forget his legs! With his mobility, his upside is a lot higher than what his price tag would indicate. Start the former UNC star with confidence.
With fellow RB Ken Walker nursing a groin injury and having been limited at practice this week, Charbonnet should have ample opportunity in his rookie debut if Seattle opts to play it safe with Walker’s workload.
Being that the Hawks are a 5.5-point favorite at home against the Rams, the game script could be in favor of Seattle, meaning more potential opportunities for Charbonnet. He also offers more value in his ability to catch passes out of the backfield.
One more nugget to note: Intra-division matchups between the Rams and Seahawks typically result in lower-scoring slugfests. Do with that what you will.
Although fellow receiver Terry McLaurin is expected to play in Week 1 despite having suffered turf toe a few weeks ago in the preseason, I don’t expect him to be at 100 percent. If that’s the case and Washington builds a commanding lead (no pun intended) early, I’d expect Washington to play it safe and preserve his long-term health by sitting him out the remainder of the game.
With that being a likely scenario given that Arizona’s roster is in shambles, Jahan Dotson should absolutely FEAST as Howell’s bonafide No. 1 WR. Having got off to a hot start in his rookie season last year with Carson Wentz at quarterback (4 TDs in his first 4 games), Dotson has shown a tendency to get open in the red zone and has showcased plenty of chemistry with Howell. I’m starting Dotson in ALL FORMATS of fantasy, daily or not.
Injuries to fellow teammates seem to be a theme here, and I promise that was unintentional. In a matchup against a Raiders secondary that statistically speaking was one of the worst in the NFL last season, Courtland Sutton will be Russell Wilson’s No. 1 target whether or not Jerry Jeudy (hamstring) plays. (Jeudy won’t be at 100% and the chances of re-injury are real given the nature of lower body injuries like that).
While divisional matchups tend to be lower-scoring, Sean Payton, Russell Wilson and the Broncos have something to prove. Expect Sutton to be the primary beneficiary of that as he’s also been reportedly having the best training camp of his career.
Maybe we were all just a year early on Sutton? People forget that Sutton compiled a 1,000-yard receiving season in just his second season in the NFL in 2019, so the talent has always been there. Now he has both the talent, situation and head coach/play-caller.
With an over/under line of 47.5, there will be a lot of points scored between Cincinnati and Cleveland in an AFC North showdown. Typically, I love rostering/starting players that are expected to partake in shootouts, and Njoku should reap the benefits of such.
At 6-4, 246 pounds, with a 4.64 40-yard dash, Watson has never had such an athletic target at tight end. Also a guy that’s expected to receive plenty of volume in the red zone, I’d be surprised if Njoku didn’t finish at the top 10 at his position this week.
With a salary at just 3K, this rookie wideout should have ample opportunity with a team who runs 11 personnel more than any other team in the NFL!
Factor in the fact that Cooper Kupp will not be playing in Seattle, Nacua should be able to outplay his cost. If you’re looking for a dart throw at receiver, look no further than Nacua (just ask Matthew Stafford).
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