Tom Viera is an experienced betting and fantasy sports columnist. He brings a vast knowledge of all things NFL, MLB, and NBA. He lives and breathes player props. During the NFL season, he can be found on Twitter (@Tom_Viera) sharing his successful anytime touchdown picks.
Great analysis on whom to play on the first SNF of the season
We’ve made it to our first Sunday Night Football game of the 2023 season. It’s been a long summer waiting for Carrie Underwood to bless our televisions again, and it’s one of the NFL’s best rivalries --the New York Giants vs the Dallas Cowboys.
Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants, 8:20 p.m. ET
Line: Cowboys -3.5
Moneyline: Cowboys -180, Giants +150
Over/Under: 45.5 points
Cowboys
Points for: 26.8 PPG (4th)
Points allowed: 19.7 (6th)
Giants
Points for: 21.2 (18th)
Points allowed: 22.8 (22nd)
Cowboys
Giants
The Smiths make up the left side of the Cowboys’ offensive line. If both can’t go, the Giants’ pass rush may have a greater impact than we expect. The Cowboys’ run game may also not be as effective. Tyler Smith is the more likely of the two to not suit up.
Waller was a late addition to the injury report and was likely injured during practice. He is a game-time decision as the Giants are expected to test out the hamstring before the game. Waller has a history of hamstring issues, so expect the G-Men to tread lightly with an entire season ahead.
If Waller were to sit, Daniel Bellinger and Lawrence Cager would slide into prominent tight end roles.
Despite coming off the Physically Unable to Perform (PUP) list ahead of the season, Robinson will need more time to recover before he is a full go.
Captain Prices
Flex Prices
Tony Pollard is taking over lead running back duties in Dallas. With Ezekiel Elliott no longer an option, Pollard should have ample opportunity to put his stamp on the offense. He had ankle surgery in the offseason, but all signs point to him being the bell cow that fantasy managers have been clamoring for since 2021.
Pollard gets to kick off the season against a Giants run defense that allowed the second-most yards per carry (5.2), the sixth-most rushing yards per game (144), and the most yards per reception to backs. For the explosive Pollard, who can turn any play into a house call, this is a great recipe to start the season.
As mentioned earlier, the Cowboys’ offensive line could be in trouble on the left side. The Giants’ defense is young, but on the interior Leonard Williams and Dexter Lawrence can make it a long night for Dak Prescott.
If Kayvon Thibodeaux makes a leap in his second season, the Giants’ pass rush can be a force. This would help mask their youth at DB, as they are expected to start two rookie cornerbacks.
If Waller does indeed make his debut, expect him to produce at an elite level. The Dallas defense allowed touchdown passes at the fourth highest rate last season. They allowed nine of those from the slot, and Waller is a menace from there. He ran 60 percent of his routes last season from the slot for the Raiders.
CeeDee Lamb should be busy, and likely is the captain worth paying for in your lineups. Our Contrarian Edge Optimizer projects Lamb for the third most fantasy points overall in Week 1. He flat out torched the Giants’ secondary last season on a 37% target share in those games.
The Giants’ defense loves to blitz. They blitzed at the highest rate in the NFL last season (43% of the time), which will leave Lamb to eat up one-on-one matchups.
Brandin Cooks, Cowboys WR -- $7,200
Cooks is fascinating. He’s now on his fourth NFL team, and in his first season with every team he had at least 1,000 yards. The veteran is entering his 10th season and he’s still only 29. Reports out of Cowboys camp all summer was how shockingly explosive Cooks was on his routes.
The Giants are starting rookies Deonte Banks and Tre Hawkins at cornerback. If the pass rush can’t impact Prescott, Cooks could torch a NYG secondary that allowed the sixth-highest yards per target last season. According to the Contrarian Edge Optimizer, Cooks projects for the lowest ownership among the top names on Sunday night.
Jake Ferguson, Cowboys TE -- $4,800
Ferguson fills the void left by Dalton Schultz, who left in free agency to the Texans. The former fourth-round pick will likely be Dak’s new receiving option at tight end until rookie second-round pick Luke Schoonmaker proves he’s ready.
Ferguson has run-after-the-catch ability, which he flashed last season. Dak’s TEs have accrued at least 90 targets each season in his career. At 6’5’’, Ferguson is a valuable red zone threat.
Parris Campbell, Giants WR -- $4,400
This is strictly a matchup-based play. If Waller is ruled out, it would be wise to get Campbell into the lineup, with the Cowboys being vulnerable guarding the slot. The Dallas defense is strong on the outside with Trevon Diggs and newly acquired former Defensive Player of the Year Stephon Gilmore.
Expect Giants quarterback Daniel Jones to utilize quick throws to the veteran Campbell to avoid the pass rush of Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence. We saw how Jones utilized slot man Richie James last season. Why not Parris in 2023?
Many believe in these Cowboys, who have one of the best two-way rosters in the NFL, to be a strong NFC contender. Some analysts are even picking them to win the Super Bowl. Meanwhile, the underdog G-Men are chomping at the bit to repeat their 2022 success.
The Cowboys have defeated the Giants four straight times, and the only victory Daniel Jones has over the Cowboys came in Week 18 back in 2020 in a game Dak Prescott didn’t play in.
I expect that trend to continue tonight. The Giants’ youth in the secondary versus the Cowboys’ veteran wide receivers will prove too much to overcome.
Cowboys 27, Giants 20
Tom Viera gives the lowdown on whom to consider adding, and avoiding, for your lineup constructions
There’s great baseball weather expected across the country except for games in the Northeast.
Yankees vs. Brewers (Bronx, NY) 1:35 pm ET– There’s a strong likelihood of thunderstorms in the NYC area throughout the day. They may face a myriad of delays squeezing in this interleague matchup.
Phillies vs. Marlins (Philadelphia) 1:05 pm ET – Nearly identical to the NYC forecast, rain and thunderstorms are expected to be abundant throughout Sunday in the City of Brotherly Love. The Phillies are scheduled to play a doubleheader on Monday so expect the two sides to somehow squeeze this one in.
Red Sox vs. Orioles (Boston) 1:35 pm ET – Rainy weather is expected to interrupt this AL East showdown. They close out the season against each other at the end of the month so they can push for a doubleheader then.
Luis Rengifo, Angels SS (biceps) -- Rengifo suffered a torn bicep in the on-deck circle in Saturday’s game. He will miss the remainder of the season.
Mickey Moniak, Angels OF (back) -- Moniak has been scratched from the lineup for three consecutive games with back tightness. There is a chance the Angels place him on the IL as they are firmly out of contention.
Shohei Ohtani, Angels RHP-DH (oblique) -- Ohtani sat for his sixth straight game Saturday, and it’s expected he will be out of the lineup again Sunday. This issue is separate from the torn UCL in his elbow so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Angels shut down the superstar. He is still considered day-to-day.
Mookie Betts, Dodgers OF (foot) – The Dodgers are calling Mookie’s foot injury a bone bruise after undergoing CT scans and an MRI. Manager, Dave Roberts has said Betts likely won’t play until next week.
Christian Yelich, Brewers OF (back) – The former MVP was scratched from Saturday’s lineup as a precaution, but it sounds like he won’t miss more time.
It’s Sunday and that means it’s aces wild across the league. You can insert some big names into your lineups. Among those aces is the frontrunner for AL Cy Young Gerrit Cole. He is the most expensive option on the slate for good reason. Cole has the third best ERA in baseball at 2.90 and he’s fifth in the league in strikeouts. He’s first in quality starts so it would be wise to fit him into your lineup.
On the other side Corbin Burnes will look to match zeros with Cole on Sunday. He’s not a sure bet to do so as he has struggled a bit more in day games with a 4.69 ERA compared to a 3.22 ERA at night. It also could be a fruitful decision to avoid both aces in the Bronx on Sunday as rain could interrupt their starts. Track the forecast pregame before inserting Cole or Burnes.
Jose Berrios’ matchup against the Royals at home looks great on paper, but this is one you may want to take a closer look at before making the decision to put him in your lineup. Despite pitching well in his last start versus the A’s, he had allowed five earned runs in back-to-back starts and finished August with an abysmal 5.53 ERA. He faced the Royals earlier this season and allowed 9 hits and 8 Earned Runs. He can redeem himself Sunday though as he has been lights out in day games throwing to a tune of a 2.06 ERA in 8 starts.
Pablo Lopez has shown brilliant flashes at times this season. He currently sits fourth in the league in strikeouts, and he has been excellent since the All-Star break. He has thrown to a 3.02 ERA but somehow, he’s been lucky. Opponents’ batting average is up to .275 post All-Star compared to .220 pre-All-Star. The Mets still present a formidable lineup with the likes of Lindor and Alonso but with some young guys now inserted New York is tied with the third lowest batting average since the All-Star break. The Mets lineup also projects well off Lopez so it's a true roll of the dice to pay for Pablo on Sunday.
Tanner Bibee vs. LAA: $9,500 (FanDuel)
This feels real great inserting into our lineups. The Angels will likely be without some dangerous bats moving forward -- Ohtani, Rengifo, and Moniak to name a few. Bibee has been sneaky good this season. He’s been the king of consistency going 14 straight starts allowing three earned runs or less. Over this span he has a 2.55 ERA, bringing his ERA on the year down to 3.05.
On Sunday, he will face an Angels lineup that has scored the third FEWEST runs since Aug. 1 and owns the seventh worst strikeout rate. With aces near the top of the board, expect the ownership rate to be somewhat low compared to other arms on Sunday.
Dodgers vs. Nationals (Trevor Williams)
The Dodgers are having a tough time on their current road trip, but they get a juicy matchup with Trevor Williams on Sunday to close out their series in Washington. They’ll be without Mookie at least another game but Williams presents the perfect get-right spot. He allowed six earned runs in five innings in his lone start versus the Dodgers this season.
To no surprise Freeman bats .375 in his career versus Williams. Martinez is 2 for 5 with a homerun, Muncy 3 for 5, and Peralta .381 in 21 at-bats. Williams has also been terrible in day games with a 6.64 ERA in 13 starts. It also helps that the Nats bullpen owns the fourth worst ERA. I would get as many Dodgers in your lineups as you can.
Twins vs. Mets (Tylor Megill)
The American League Central leaders are a dominant force at Target Field. They are sixth in MLB in OPS, HRs, and slugging percentage at home this season. Megill presents a friendly matchup for the Twinkies. His home/away splits are eye opening. His 7.93 road ERA compared to his 3.43 ERA at Citi Field makes us salivate over the Twins lineup on Sunday.
Tom Viera breaks down his top plays on PrizePicks and Underdog for Thursday, Sept. 7.
Most people know today is the kickoff of the 2023 NFL season. Lucky for us that’s not the only sports action we have on tap.
We have an abbreviated but excellent schedule of MLB games. There are six matchups, among them the top two teams in the National League. The Braves and Dodgers will look to avoid being swept against lesser opponents.
The Yankees are arguably the hottest team over the last week. Rodon will toe the rubber for the Bronx Bombers as they try to win their sixth straight. He has allowed four hits or less in eight of his nine starts.
Going back to last season, that number is a 65% rate. There’s no sugarcoating that Rodon has struggled in pinstripes, but tonight’s opponent is what the doctor ordered. The Tigers are tied with the Athletics with the third lowest batting average against left-handed pitchers this season. They have the second fewest hits against lefties as well as the second lowest batting average on the road. Expect Rodon to give the Yankees a chance at a back-to-back sweep.
The Mariners have flipped their season around, and arguably the biggest factor has been the play of Rodriguez in the second half of the season. Over the last month he has the third best batting average in baseball and the second-most total bases.
He doesn’t have much of a history versus Rays projected starting pitcher Zack Littell, but Rodriguez has a higher batting average on the road then he does at home.
Betts is third overall across MLB in total bases this season. He has been red hot since the All-Star break. He’s averaging 2.91 total bases over the last month.
An underrated aspect of wagering on total bases is the number of at-bats a player will have in a game. Mookie is in the top five in at bats per game meaning he will likely have more opportunities to eclipse this number than most.
Miami will send lefty Braxton Garrett to the bump. Mookie is 2 for 4 in his career against him with two home runs. Betts has a .320 batting average against current Miami relief pitchers. Expect Mookie to top this number early.
Hoerner is quietly becoming one of the best hitters in baseball. He’s inside the top 30 in batting average and inside the top 10 in strikeout percentage. He is just one of eleven players in the league with a strikeout percentage below 14%.
He will face Diamondbacks starting pitcher Ryne Nelson tonight in the friendly confines. Nelson has struggled this season and is bottom ten in strikeout rate on the road. When the Diamondbacks go to the bullpen we shouldn’t be scared as they are in the bottom half in MLB in strikeouts per 9 innings.
Harris and the Braves look to avoid being swept by the lowly Cardinals. The Braves have not lost four games in a row all season. The Cardinals will have Adam Wainwright on the mound. The veteran has struggled mightily this season and August was one of his worst months ever in his 18-year career. Harris is 3 for 3 in his career against Wainwright and has quietly been one of the hottest hitters over the last two weeks tied with the second-most singles.
Wainwright has struggled all season. He has allowed more than six hits in 14 of 18 starts -- a 77% hit rate. He has the slowest average fastball velocity across MLB this season. The Atlanta bats should tee off at Truist Park. Atlanta’s projected lineup has a career .380 batting average against Wainwright.
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