Dr. A gets you ready for your NBA fantasy leagues
Tiers can help fantasy managers determine exactly when it’s time to take the player they’re looking at. If you’re torn between a shooting guard and a center and the center you’re looking at is a Tier 2 player, while the SG is a Tier 1 player, we’d recommend taking the SG. Players with similar values are grouped in tiers together, so getting the higher-tiered player is the way to go in most cases. Here are our Power Forward Tiers.
Tier 1
If he ever starts hitting free throws and 3-pointers, look out.
Tier 2
Does everything well and should thrive while Ja Morant is suspended for 25 games.
Tier 3
Markkanen broke out last year, while KAT and AD would be monsters if they can stay healthy.
Tier 4
Wembanyama is either going to go boom or bust and the rest of these guys are all rock solid.
Tier 5
Collins is looking for a boost in his new uniform and Jabari Smith and Keegan Murray are looking to take a big step forward. Will Ben Simmons show up this year?
Tier 6
Wood, Toppin and Williams could all be fun at some point this season.
Tier 7
We may be sleeping on Olynyk.
Tier 8
Vanderbilt is a better player than his ranking indicates.
Dr. A gets you ready for your NBA fantasy leagues
Tiers can help fantasy managers determine exactly when it’s time to take the player they’re looking at. If you’re torn between a shooting guard and a center and the center you’re looking at is a Tier 2 player, while the SG is a Tier 1 player, we’d recommend taking the SG. Players with similar values are grouped in tiers together, so getting the higher-tiered player is the way to go in most cases. Here are our shooting guard tiers.
We sense a full breakout coming from one of the league’s up-and-coming superstars.
You can’t go wrong with any of these players.
Solid shooting guards and Jalen Williams could end up being the best of the bunch.
More on the NBA:
Can Ingram stay healthy? Wiggins could be wildly underrated this draft season.
Shaedon Sharpe is going to be fun, and Bruce Brown should thrive in Indy.
Nice glue guys for late in your draft.
Not a lot to love about Tier 7.
One or two of these guys are going to be much more relevant than we anticipate.
Dr. A gets you ready for your NBA fantasy leagues
Tiers can help fantasy managers determine exactly when it’s time to take the player they’re looking at. If you’re torn between a shooting guard and a center and the center you’re looking at is a Tier 2 player, while the SG is a Tier 1 player, we’d recommend taking the SG. Players with similar values are grouped in tiers together, so getting the higher-tiered player is the way to go in most cases. Here are our Point Guard Tiers.
These guys are why you want a Top 5 pick in your fantasy draft.
Rock steady first-round players.
We’re all expecting a Trae Young bounce-back and Devin Booker could be a beast.
More on the NBA:
Tier 4 is stacked with talent and they’re all going to be very solid fantasy options this season.
You can’t go wrong with any of these Tier 5 players.
Can you wait for Ja Morant for 25 games? It may be worth it. The Jones bros are going to be quality value for where they’ll be drafted.
Tier 7 will contribute across the board in fantasy, Schroder could run the show all season in Toronto and Thompson could win Rookie of the Year if the stars align.
Deeper league point guards or back-up insurance for your starters.
Predictions and odds for NBA awards this season
With the 2023-24 NBA regular season set to tip off Oct. 24, it’s an excellent opportunity to look at award futures on DraftKings Sportsbook. Most basketball bettors enjoy betting on awards such as MVP, Rookie of the Year, Most Improved Player, Defensive Player of the Year, etc., because of the value that can be had throughout the regular season.
Last season, we saw Joel Embiid win MVP for the first time in his career, Paolo Banchero run away with Rookie of the Year, and Lauri Markannen win Most Improved Player of the Year. We will see a new set of contenders compete for these various league awards this season.
Below, we’ll look at some of my award futures in the Association and why bettors should consider wagering on them before Opening Night.
It’s never easy to make a prediction on MVP, as a lot of things can happen during the regular season. Joel Embiid could repeat as league MVP under new 76ers head coach Nick Nurse or Nikola Jokic could win his unprecedented third league MVP as Denver looks to defend its crown.
Jokic is the favorite to win MVP (+450), but I believe there’s value in betting on Devin Booker at 18/1 odds (+1800). He didn’t receive a single vote last season after finishing fourth in voting in the 2021-22 season. Last season, Booker averaged 27.6 points (career-high), 5.5 assists, and 4.5 rebounds. He also shot 49.4% from the field and 35.1% from three-point range.
Heading into this season, Booker will be a part of a Phoenix team that features Kevin Durant, Bradley Beal, and Jusuf Nurkic. With their collection of talent and a new head coach (Frank Vogel), the Suns will try to get the Suns back to the Western Conference finals.
For Booker to win MVP, Phoenix must finish with a top-3 record out West, and he has to lead the team in scoring. There’s always a possibility that Booker and Durant (+1400) split votes because the Suns’ success will largely rest on their shoulders.
However, with Chris Paul at Golden State, Vogel could look for Booker to be a facilitator while still getting his points. If Phoenix gets off to a fast start, Booker’s odds could quickly shorten as they try to get back to the top of the West.
San Antonio Spurs forward Victor Wembanyama is currently the favorite to win Rookie of the Year (+100), but do not write off Oklahoma City Thunder forward Chet Holmgren.
Holmgren missed his rookie season with a Lisfranc injury but is healthy and ready to help the Thunder reach the postseason. The former Gonzaga star is looking to join Ben Simmons and Blake Griffin as rookies who missed their first seasons in the NBA but won Rookie of the Year the following year.
The 21-year-old big man had an impressive Summer League in Salt Lake City and Las Vegas, averaging 16.5 points, 9.8 rebounds, and 3.5 blocks in 29.8 minutes per game. If the Thunder can build off what they did last season with Holmgren, he will have a compelling case to win ROY.
Sengun is quietly being underrated in the MIP race after what he did last season with the Rockets. The 21-year-old center posted career highs with 14.8 points, 9.0 rebounds, and 3.9 assists per game. Sengun also started in 72 out of 75 games last season – a noticeable improvement from his rookie season.
We should expect Sengun’s play to improve as he will be playing with veteran point guard Fred VanVleet, who hasn’t played with a center of Sengun’s caliber. He played alongside Pascal Siakam in Toronto, who is one of the better power forwards in the NBA. I like Sengun’s chances of winning MIP, especially if he averages a double-double and continues to show that he can get others involved.
It’s weird to think about Chris Paul winning Sixth Man of the Year after all the things he’s accomplished over his career. However, he’s likely not a starter in Golden State but could be the perfect candidate to lead their second unit. Last season, Paul averaged 13.9 points, 8.9 assists, and 4.3 rebounds per game.
The 2022-23 season was a noticeably down year for Paul, but maybe coming off the bench could get him back to the point guard we’ve seen over the last few years.
However, if you still don’t think the multiple-time All-Star guard has a chance to win it, here’s something to keep in mind. Over the last 10 years, nine guards have won the Sixth Man of the Year award. The only time a guard didn’t win was Montrezl Harrell in the 2019-20 season.
After finishing third in the DPOY voting last season, Mobley has a good chance this season. He and reigning winner Jaren Jackson Jr. are the favorites.
Last season, Mobley was stellar on the defensive end, averaging 1.5 blocks per game (ninth in the NBA) and was first in defensive wins shares (4.8). He also had a defensive rating of 108, fifth in the NBA.
The former USC standout did a fantastic job anchoring the Cavaliers’ defense last season with Jarrett Allen. Cleveland finished first in Defensive Rating (110.6) and opponents’ points per game (106.9).
Allen receives a majority of the attention in Cleveland’s frontcourt for his shot-blocking prowess and rebounding, but we shouldn’t forget about the 22-year-old Mobley, who is still coming into his own.
Best fantasy plays among the NBA's older players
Veterans aren't the most exciting players to draft in fantasy basketball, but sometimes the boring and safe picks hit more often than chasing upside too early. And some veterans are aging like fine wine and often find themselves cheaply priced in drafts, making them solid values overall.
Here are several NBA senior citizens who are still getting the job done at a high level.
Chicago’s roster looks almost identical to last season, making DeRozan a very easy player to project for fantasy. He's still very much in his prime at age 34, with his last two seasons being the most impressive stretch of his career. Chicago’s point guard rotation is a mess, so that means we can expect to see plenty of DeRozan with the ball in his hands.
Chicago is in good hands, however. DeRozan ranked in the 89th percentile in pick-and-rolls last season. And unlike other players at his age, DeRozan doesn’t take many nights off and averaged 75 games over the past couple seasons. That’s unlikely to change with the Bulls looking to get back into the playoffs in 2023-24. You cannot go wrong with taking DeRozan in the fifth round, and if you’re already punting 3s, he’ll be even more valuable.
You’d think LeBron would be declining rapidly after 20 seasons, but he operates under a different set of rules when it comes to Father Time. LeBron has been held back by a very serious foot injury for the past couple years, but now he claims to be fully healthy again and he looked very spry to open training camp, moving around like someone a decade younger.
He has publicly said he’s ready to turn the spotlight over to Anthony Davis, but at the end of the day, he’s still LeBron James and he’s still going to eat. Despite playing on one leg last year, he managed a second-round finish in 9-cat. His 3-point shot is trending down as he settles for more bad looks and his defensive output isn’t what it used to be, but LeBron can still go out there and get 25 points, eight assists and eight rebounds in his sleep.
Chris Paul has lost a step, and then another. He'll be 39 years old when the playoffs roll around. But it sounds like the Warriors are going to start him next to Steph Curry, and if that happens it means his minutes should stay north of 28.
Paul’s ADP of 72 in Yahoo is actually a couple spots cheaper than it was a few weeks ago, so he’s relatively affordable in fantasy drafts.
Assists are one of the most valuable categories in fantasy basketball because it’s not a category you can make up ground in during the middle and late rounds, so that really helps Paul’s case.
Curry said the addition of Paul has been a “seamless” fit so far, and those two were getting in a ton of reps together well before training camp started. Plus, the Warriors will have a focused Andrew Wiggins back in the mix this season, and hopefully a motivated Jonathan Kuminga to give Paul two really nice cutters and lob threats.
After a few years of horrendous injury luck, Klay surprised a ton of people when he played 69 games in 2022-23. He averaged 21.9 points, 4.1 rebounds, 2.4 assists and a career-high 4.4 triples on a 41% clip.
The addition of Chris Paul can only help Klay, as he now has another elite playmaker creating easy looks for him on the perimeter. It’s no secret the Warriors don’t have as much frontcourt depth, so there’s been a lot of talk of Klay possibly playing the 4 for stretches. A bump in rebounding and defensive stats is suddenly on the table with this news, making him a reasonable selection with an ADP of 78.
Let’s not kid ourselves. Brook Lopez probably isn’t going to have another second-round campaign in 9-cat like he did in 2022-23, as that was pretty much the perfect storm with so many injuries in Milwaukee.
The Bucks enter the season at full strength, with the exception of Khris Middleton, who is still on the mend. Giannis Antetokounmpo will likely find more minutes at center after playing a career-high 41% of his minutes there last season. Lopez is also going to see his block rate come back to earth after registering a 6.7% compared to his career average of 4.9%. His ADP of 65 on Yahoo is not cheap, but often times you will see him fall to the end of the middle round with so many managers chasing youth and upside over safe and “boring” veterans.
Dray is coming off his worst fantasy season since 2013-14, and although the Warriors paid him the big bucks, he’s clearly at the tail end of his career. The addition of Chris Paul also complicates things, as Paul taking the ball out of Green’s hands even more neutralizes one of his last few remaining strengths.
There’s another way to look at this though. With less offensive responsibility, maybe we can see Green put together one or two more elite defensive seasons in which we see his steal/block rates climb to the levels we were once spoiled with.
The Warriors have very little frontcourt depth and won’t be able to load manage Green as much as Steve Kerr was probably hoping to, so that should help keep Green’s games played up. With an ADP just shy of 100, Green is very cheap and can still be useful in the right punt builds.
After looking “washed” with the Jazz early on in 2022-23, a trade to Minnesota rejuvenated the veteran in a big way. He averaged14.0 points, 5.0 assists, 3.1 rebounds, 1.2 steals and 2.4 triples on a 46/42/86 shooting line while playing 31 minutes per night.
Conley ranked in the 98th percentile on pick-and-rolls, making him a tremendous fit alongside Minnesota’s two stud centers in Rudy Gobert and Karl-Anthony Towns. He was also the second-best corner 3-point shooter, and that will be something that Anthony Edwards will be constantly looking for on his frequent drives. With a dirt-cheap ADP on most sites, Conley is a no-brainer pick and clearly has a lot left in the tank.
I wasn’t initially on board with Horford in what will be his age-37 season, but the Celtics are extremely thin up front and had to trade away Robert Williams in order to acquire Jrue Holiday. Sure, the Celtics have Kristaps Porzingis, but he’s not exactly Mr. Durable.
After that, we’re look at a group that consists of Luke Kornet and Wenyen Gabriel. Not ideal.
Horford will almost certainly have some maintenance days this season, but how many of those can the Celtics afford with this shallow of a roster? Horford was a 6th-round fantasy value in 9-cat last season and finds himself in an ideal situation to repeat his success.
This might be a reach, but hey, Hayward has to have some good injury luck at least one time in five years, right? Charlotte’s roster is underwhelming yet again, and Hayward is an odd fit on a roster that’s destined to find themselves at the front of the tank race of 2024.
There’s been some talk of Hayward possibly coming off the bench in a sixth man role which honestly might suit him the best, and the Hornets have every incentive to play him in order to get his market value back up for the trade deadline. Hayward is still a very good player on the few occasions he’s healthy enough to play, most recently averaging 14.7 points, 4.3 rebounds, 4.1 assists and 1.0 triples.
The rookies who could be big contributors for you
This is one of the most exciting rookie classes in recent memory, but not all of them are going to make a splash right away. With preseason ramping up, there will be a handful of additions to this list. But for now, there are eight rookies from the 2023 draft class that could make serious noise this season.
I don’t normally draft rookies aggressively, but Wembanyama is the exception. Wemby already has pro experience coming from a highly respected league in France, averaging 20.9 points on 47/27/82 shooting with 10.3 rebounds, 2.4 assists and 3.0 blocks. The last rookie to produce a first-round fantasy campaign was Karl-Anthony Towns in 2015-16, but Wemby has an even better stat profile and will be San Antonio’s top offensive option the second he takes the floor.
I’m going to have a ridiculous amount of Wemby shares if his ADP remains in the third round.
Unlike Charlotte, I think it’s painfully obvious that Scoot Henderson should’ve come off the board at No. 2. We haven’t seen a point guard with this frame and athletic build since Russell Westbrook or prime Derrick Rose. Scoot has a lightning-quick first step and can get to the rim at will, but he can also stop on a dime and showcase his outstanding mid-range game. He also has a 6-9 wingspan and monstrous hands, something that will allow him to generate heaps of steals and blocks.
The Blazers did Scoot a solid and got rid of the distractions caused by the Damian Lillard saga, and Malcolm Brogdon is expected to be flipped. That leaves Scoot and Anfernee Simons with the keys to the offense. I would target Scoot aggressively in points leagues, but in 9-cat I think it would be better to acquire him later on in his rookie season when he has a chance to learn the ropes.
Rookie PGs are notorious for struggling with efficiency and turnovers, and it doesn’t help Scoot’s case that he doesn’t have a 3-point shot to fall back on when teams start crowding the paint.
Amen was in the top three of my rookie board and will be a 99th percentile athlete in the NBA right out of the gate. And with Kevin Porter Jr. out of the equation in Houston, Amen suddenly has an even better path to playing time. He’ll likely be ready as a floor general and primary playmaker someday, but Fred VanVleet will handle that role in the meantime while the rookie learns the ropes.
Amen has the size and strength to be used all over the floor, and the Rockets will be relying heavily on his defense early. He averaged 2.3 steals and 0.9 blocks for Overtime Elite, and while he doesn’t have a reliable jumper yet, his FG% could be very appealing because of his ability to generate points in the paint.
But just like Scoot, I like the idea of trading for him before the second half of the season as opposed to spending a draft pick on him since he’ll have some early bumps in the road as he figures out his role.
You can argue that Amen may have the higher ceiling, but Ausar may have a better shot at extended minutes right away in Detroit. In fact, he’s already drawing rave reviews from head coach Monty Williams and may even win a starting job. “We think he’s gonna be phenomenal and we think he’s going to be an integral part of our team. There’s a chance that can happen right away, based on what we’ve seen this summer and in camp.”
Just like his brother, Ausar has steal/block rates that are through the roof with 2.4 steals and 1.1 blocks per game with Overtime Elite. He’s also a very capable playmaker, so it will be interesting to see how much freedom he’ll have to create while playing next to a ball-dominant Cade Cunningham.
It’s no secret that I’m not a big Miller fan, and being from Charlotte, I can promise you I’m not in the minority here. However, in fantasy basketball, opportunity is sometimes more important than talent and that’s exactly the case here.
Miller will likely step into a sizable role right away, helped by the fact that Miles Bridges is suspended for the first 10 games. On paper, Miller is supposed to be a good fit next to LaMelo Ball for his floor spacing ability, but the issue here is that Miller has been ice cold since the end of his college career.
During the Summer League alone, Miller shot a mediocre 38%.
Miller does have decent steal/block rates to fall back on, and he’s a solid rebounder and secondary playmaker. I’m not writing him off by any means just because the Hornets drafted him too high, but if he finds his footing he’ll have all the opportunities in the world on a really underwhelming Charlotte roster.
Jarace Walker is a defensive-minded forward who projects to be a utility player right away for the Pacers. Obi Toppin is standing in his way as the Pacers open camp in what should be an exciting battle for the starting power forward role, so it will be interesting to see which direction Rick Carlisle goes.
Walker struggled with his shot during the Summer League and hit 34% from the field and 44% from the field, but his counting stats of 14.3 points, 7.8 rebounds, 3.3 assists, 1.3 blocks, 1.3 steals and 1.3 triples were certainly intriguing. I won’t be drafting Walker in standard 9-cat leagues, but I do see him becoming a quality waiver-wire pickup at some point during his rookie season.
Jason Kidd starting a rookie? Can it be? It certainly seems headed that way, as Kidd has been talking up Lively quite a bit. Kidd gave Lively the starting nod in the preseason opener, although he didn’t do so hot with two points, five rebounds, one block and four fouls in 15 minutes.
But still, the Mavericks are desperate for a ceiling raiser, and they might as well see if they can Lively up to speed quickly since their alternatives consists of Dwight Powell, Richaun Holmes and Maxi Kleber.
Lively is going to have a steep learning curve and I don’t see myself drafting him just yet, but his shot-blocking ability gives him a great shot of being relevant in category leagues this season – he averaged 4.7 blocks per 40 minutes at Duke.
One of my favorite rookies, Hendricks reminds me of Jaden McDaniels in so many ways. He’s already an elite shot-blocking forward with 1.7 per game in college, but his 3-point shot is much further along than Jaden’s was during his rookie season.
The issue here is that Utah’s front court is very crowded, as they have Lauri Markkanen, Walker Kessler, John Collins and Kelly Olynyk. Hendricks’ long-term potential is through the roof, and I will be drafting him aggressively in dynasty formats, but a potential lack of playing time at the beginning of his rookie season gives me pause in redraft leagues.
Dr. A's top 200 rankings for NBA points leagues
In points leagues, poor free throw shooters and high turnover players don't hurt fantasy managers as much as they in other leagues, while players who don't score a lot of points lose some value. Those low scorers can make up for it by doing things by stealing the ball, blocking shots or crashing the boards, but the main difference between category scoring vs. points scoring is that the glaring weaknesses of poor free throw shooters and high turnover guys don't ruin your team.
In a points league, you want guys who are going to score a lot while contributing in other categories. If a player doesn't score a lot, but does other things well, he will generally struggle to be a big contributor in points leagues in most cases.
Players who don't score much rank lower in this format than in others. But every scoring format is different and you have to know yours well. Even if a player doesn't score a ton of points, if your league rewards steals or blocks with 3.0 or more points per steal or block, players who excel there can overcome a low-scoring average.
These rankings below highly ignore statistics that negatively impact players in other formats. Players who turn the ball over or can't make free throws, but score a lot of points nightly, really excel in this format.
Points leagues were built for players like Giannis Antetokounmpo and Shaquille O'Neal back in the day, throwing their poor free throw shooting and lack of 3-pointers out the window.
Here are our rankings for points-based scoring systems for the 2023-24 NBA season:
Dr. A gets you ready for your NBA fantasy leagues
Here are our 9-cat Fantasy NBA Rankings for the 2023-24 season. Nine categories take into consideration points, rebounds, assists, steals, blocks, 3-pointers, field goal percentage, free throw percentage and turnovers. These rankings can also be loosely used for other scoring systems.
More on the NBA:
In a points league, poor free throw shooters, like Giannis Antetokounmpo, and high turnover players (most of the high-volume scorers) can be given a boost as those categories don't really matter in that format. And if you play in an 8-cat league, eliminating the turnovers also gives a little more value to those high-volume scorers.
Good luck in your drafts!
NBA Experts Corey Parson and Steve "Dr. A" Alexander will recap Monday's games and preview the limited Tuesday Slate of NBA Games. We'll also break down the James Harden Trade to the Clippers. Check-in daily on the Fantasy Fire and Ice Podcast for injury updates, breaking NBA news, and player profiles.
.svg){kind=icon}
.svg){kind=icon}