An optimizer is a powerful tool to harness in DFS play, capable of bulk operations in an instant that would otherwise take hours of manipulation to perform manually. Like any other tool, one must first learn how to wield an optimizer before its true power can be realized.
That is exactly what we will look to sort through in this weekly series. We’ll focus on Contrarian Edge Optimizer use at Fantasy Sports Logic for the Monday slates each week of the 2023 season to explore the tool itself, maximize expected value through optimal utilization, and provide a sneak peek into the newest, and most dynamic, optimizer in the industry.
Stacking and Correlation
It is no secret in today’s DFS scene that stacking and correlation are optimal practices to boost profitability. But why is that the case? Stacking and correlation simultaneously reduce the number of variables that need to go right and maximize ceiling when those variables do go right. In other words, stacking and correlation provide paths to bulk scoring by leveraging team tendencies in various game environments.
Game Environment Bets
Targeting specific game environments in NFL DFS is typically the most optimal approach to utilizing these processes. A competitive game environment that pushes past it’s game total can provide more offensive plays run from scrimmage (more opportunity for fantasy points to accrue), more touchdowns (the bulk scoring function), increased pass rates (more opportunity for points in a PPR setting), and influence a team’s play calling tendencies (more aggression).
Team Stacking Functionality
The Team Stacking dropdown toggle in the Contrarian Edge Optimizer provides the ability to quickly influence the optimizer’s logic towards heavier rates of team stacks. Simply select the dropdown menu and choose the team you would like to boost stacking with. While a powerful tool in and of itself, Fantasy Sports Logic’s Contrarian Edge Optimizer provides more fluidity through a nuanced team boost approach as well.
Monday Night Football Doubleheader
Most of the articles in this series will cover Showdown slates as we’re exploring Monday Night Football slates. This week, however, we have a Monday Night Football doubleheader on the docket, allowing us to explore more of the full range of tools at our disposal through the Contrarian Edge Optimizer.
Auto Team Stacking Bonus
The Auto Team Stacking Bonus toggle allows a percentage boost to be applied to players on the team that the quarterback is selected from. You can then apply the desired percentage boost to influence the optimizer’s decision-making to tilt the logic towards team stacks. This allows for more fluidity in its logic when compared to other more rigid tools that would attempt to force team stacking per prescribed rules. You can then influence the team of the stack by using both functionalities in the optimizer.
Stacking Theoretics
There are also certain theoretical stacking practices that the optimizer is well-equipped to handle. Through a study performed on the Milly Maker tournament on DraftKings, where I examined the weekly optimal rosters and compared them to the winning rosters each slate, I found that 22.2 percent of the optimal rosters included a quarterback paired with his tight end.
While that makes sense considering tight end scoring is heavily correlated to touchdown production, and the quarterback would be the player on the other end of those touchdowns, the field’s utilization of this practice falls short of its hit rate. That fundamentally provides leverage on the field.
Furthermore, I also found that running backs were included on the optimal stack 18 percent of the time, yet the field still largely avoids playing a running back with a quarterback. But if a quarterback is succeeding, it makes it that much more likely that his running back also succeeds due to the higher likelihood of things like drives reaching the red zone, touchdown opportunities, and overall game environment.
By Position Stacking Bonus
Both underutilized tendencies can be influenced by the user in the Contrarian Edge Optimizer through the By Position Stacking bonus functionality. Under “Set Pro Options,” select the Auto Team Stacking Bonus toggle and the By Position toggle. Then, apply the desired boost to tight end and running back, which will influence the optimizer’s inputs under specific conditions.
As you can see, the Contrarian Edge Optimizer is an invaluable tool to building bulk rosters for DFS play. To best harness its abilities, we must first have a working knowledge of the varying options to utilize as inputs in addition to a theoretical and conceptual working knowledge of the game of NFL DFS. This article series will attempt to further our understanding in both those areas throughout the season.
.png)
.svg){kind=icon}
.svg){kind=icon}