We were high on Adam Thielen again in Week 5, but even we weren’t high enough. Thielen finished as the WR4 during a week of MEGA games from Ja’Marr Chase, DJ Moore and Tyreek Hill.
My favorite game in Week 6, is the Vikings and Bears. DJ Moore has a chance to triple down on top-5 finishes against the Vikings, while being the only wide receiver with a reception on the Bears. Justin Jefferson was placed on IR this week with a hamstring injury, opening the door for rookie Jordan Addison to officially break out. Addison has scored a touchdown in three games and finished with 50-plus yards in four of five games. Addison will step into Jefferson’s role and finish as a top-16 play with upside to have a mega breakout.
Jonathan Mingo finished as WR36 in Week 5, despite Terrace Marshall reeling in 10 targets the previous week with Mingo out of action with a concussion. At 41 is Zay Jones, who returned in Week 5 and finished as WR28. He hadn't played since Week 1, where he finished as WR18. Jones is a strong flex option on a weekly basis.
Deep and asleep is Jaxon Smith-Njigba -- an ugly one, but we saw JSN finish with six targets twice in four games before the bye week.
Year after year, opportunity is had for offenses to build through bye weeks with rookie wide receivers, and this year is no different.
We’re getting closer and closer to the postseason with just less than two weeks to go in the regular campaign, but there are some fun over/unders to hit with a strong slate available Wednesday.
Hunter Greene, Reds RHP: 7.5 strikeouts - Over (PrizePicks)
Since returning from injury August 20, Greene has only gone over seven strikeouts once -- a nine-punchout game against the Cardinals on September 10. That said, this right-hander has fanned a whopping 129 hitters in just 97 innings and possesses some of the best swing-and-miss stuff in baseball. He’s also going to face a lineup that strikes out with the best of them -- or worst of them? -- and will be without Carlos Correa and Royce Lewis. I like Greene to have a strong outing that sees him show off that ability to miss bats again.
The caveat here is you’ll want to make sure Raleigh is in the lineup on a getaway day in the afternoon before making this bet. Assuming he is either behind the plate or lined up as the DH, he makes sense as a play as a middle-of-the-order option that will be squaring off against Joey Estes and the lowly Athletics. It wouldn’t be a shock if Raleigh hit this total with an early two-run homer, but either way, he’s a good bet to be a fantasy contributor as Seattle looks for the sweep and to stay in the hunt for the American League West title.
Bobby Miller, Dodgers RHP: 1.5 runs allowed - Higher (PrizePicks)
Miller has pitched decently in his last few starts and shown the ability to miss bats, and he’ll be facing off against a Detroit lineup that doesn’t exactly strike a lot of fear into the hearts of pitchers. So, while it makes sense for the rookie right-hander to be a usable option, he’s held a lineup under two runs once in his last four starts, and he’s posted a 4.12 ERA thus far in September. That’s not an abhorrent number, and again, picking against Miller has far less to do with the ability he can pitch well, and more to do with the fact that holding a lineup to under two runs is hard. Baseball is hard.
Gunner Henderson, Orioles 3B: 8.0 fantasy points - Over (Underdog)
In the month of September, Henderson has hit .305/.314/.612 with five homers and 15 RBI. In his last eight starts for the Astros, Javier has given up 10 round-trippers while registering a 5.87 ERA over 38.1 innings of work that has seen his ERA balloon up to 4.74. Do I need to say anymore? I don’t think I need to say anymore. There are several quality Baltimore options to think about using in both DFS and in this type of format, but ride the hot hand of Henderson if you can only choose one.
Aaron Civale, Rays RHP: 15.5 pitching outs - Under (Prizepicks)
It’d be understandable if you went in the opposite direction on this one if only because the Los Angeles lineup is not a whole heck of a lot of fun to watch right now. That said, Civale has not pitched six innings since August 16, and that’s the only time he’s hit the over on this total as a member of the Tampa Bay rotation. Even if Civale is efficient -- something he hasn’t been terribly often in 2023 even while putting up solid numbers -- there’s a good chance he’s only going to be on the mound for five innings before giving way to the excellent Rays’ bullpen.
Week 2 was brutal for the NFL running back room. The Browns' Nick Chubb is out for the season with a knee injury, Saquon Barkley is sidelined three weeks with an ankle sprain and Jamaal Williams also was hurt Monday night.
What to do? Whom to pick up? Our terrific trio of Simon Groeneveld, Stu 'Monotone' Durst and Terrell Furman break down the players you can pick up off the waiver wire for your roster replacements. Check out the video below.
Data, Data, Data. After an entire offseason of looking at the same data, we’re two weeks into the slow trickle of new data that is the NFL season. With each passing week, the picture becomes clearer. At this point, there is still ample uncertainty. And that means opportunity for the savvy fantasy football player on the waiver wire.
Who is the Giants’ preferred backup running back? Will the Browns bring in somebody else with Nick Chubb injured? Is CJ Stroud the real deal!? If we can predict these outcomes accurately, we’ll have a leg up on our league mates heading into Week 3.
Wide Receivers
Nico Collins, Texans (55% Rostered), Tank Dell, Texans (20% Rostered)
Stroud was lauded by many as the most “pro-ready” QB in this class (and the best overall QB by a smaller group). Through two weeks, he might be proving them right. The Texans have unleashed Stroud in the passing game, allowing him to throw the ball 44 times in week 1 and 47 times in Week 2.
Dell and Collins have become favorite targets of this rookie QB. Both scored in Week 2, and if this pass volume remains this high, both are worthwhile adds.
Rashid Shaheed, Saints (46% Rostered)
Shaheed is proving to be Derek Carr’s preferred big play threat and a consistent part of the New Orleans passing game. While Shaheed did not find the end zone in Week 2 like he did in Week 1, he still caught 4 passes for 63 yards. Shaheed has weekly startability given his usage through two weeks. While not likely to be the most consistent, his big play ability makes him a TD threat every week.
Tutu Atwell, Rams (32% Rostered)
Speaking of big play receivers, the Rams have found their answer at that position. I know Puka Nacua is soooo hot right now, but don’t forget about Atwell as a viable option. Tutu was on the field for 94% of the Rams snaps this past week and has been targeted 17 times this season. The attention being heaped onto Puka is deserved, but the value on the waiver wire may be in his teammate Tutu.
Marvin Mims, Broncos (21% Rostered)
Mims is a stash play if you have extra room. He’s a big play receiver and showcased that in Week 2 with 2 receptions for 113 yards and a TD. However, Mims isn’t on the field nearly enough (only 24% of Broncos’ snaps in Week 2) to be a consistent weekly starter. The early success is promising, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see his role grow. If you have bench space, add him now and wait.
Running Backs
Jerome Ford, Browns (15% Rostered)
After suffering a knee injury Monday night, Chubb’s season is over. The next man up for Cleveland is 2022 5th-round draft pick Jerome Ford. After Chubb went down, Ford had 16 for 106 yards, including a 69-yarder that showcased his playmaking ability. While Cleveland may add someone to the RB room (cough Kareem Hunt cough), Ford will likely remain RB1.
Kareem Hunt, unsigned (23%)
With Chubb gone, the Browns could be in the market for a veteran RB with familiarity of the offense. While I expect Ford to be the lead back even if Hunt signs, this will likely be an RB-by-committee, so Hunt will command fantasy value in the Browns’ run\heavy offense.
Roschon Johnson, Bears (50% Rostered)
While Johnson didn’t outsnap Khalil Herbert in Week 2 like he did in Week 1, he still saw significant playing time and was more efficient with the work he was given. D’Onta Foreman being a healthy scratch in Week 2 is a good sign for Johnson’s role in this offense. While Herbert is the 1A for the time being, expect that to switch Johnson in coming weeks.
Tony Jones Jr., Saints (0% Rostered)
With Jamaal Williams going down Monday Night, Kendre Miller dealing with a hamstring injury, and Alvin Kamara still serving 1 more game on his 3-game suspension, that leaves Jones Jr. all but alone in the RB room.
Jones scored two touchdowns Monday and should be RB1 if the injury situation doesn’t improve. That said, his upside is extremely limited. Kamara is only out for one more week and while not a running back, expect Taysom Hill to steal some work from Jones Jr. as well.
Matt Breida, Giants (3% Rostered), Gary Brightwell, Giants (0% Rostered)
Saquon Barkley is out three weeks with an ankle sprain, meaning a lot of uncertainty about who will carry the ball for the Giants. Breida is the veteran presence, and Brightwell is the 3rd-year back who has shown rare flash on special teams. While neither is particularly exciting -- especially with a matchup against the 49ers’ defense on TNF -- I’d prioritize Breida as he appears the most likely to take over as the primary back.
Tight Ends
Taysom Hill, Saints (15% Rostered)
With RBs Williams and Miller injured, and Kamara having to serve one more game in his 3 game suspension, tight end Hill had 9 carries Monday against the Panthers. Given the current RB situation, expect Hill to remain involved in multiple ways in this offense. Given that 8-10 PPR points is all that’s needed to be a top 12 TE most weeks, Hill is a worthwhile add.
Quarterbacks
Baker Mayfield, Buccaneers (19% Rostered)
The butt of many offseason jokes and the sworn enemy of Kyle Trask Truthers, Baker Mayfield has looked good for the Buccaneers – throwing for 490 yards, 3 TDs, and no interceptions. The next game is against the vaunted Philly defense, but Mayfield remains stream able and his pass catching options (especially Mike Evans) remain must starts.
CJ Stroud (24% Rostered)
I sang his praises at the beginning of this article when making the case to pick up both of the rookie QB’s receiving options – Tank Dell and Nico Collins. Stroud is slinging it through the first two weeks – 91 attempts for 626 yards, 2 TDs, and no interceptions. The Texans will likely be trailing at lot this season and that will lead to more positive game scripts for Stroud and his receivers.
There is a stacked schedule of MLB games Tuesday. Among them, two of the hottest teams since the All-Star break, the Mariners and Dodgers, have soft matchups against the Athletics and Tigers, respectively. The Braves and Phillies continue to battle for NL dominance.
This isn’t an indictment of Lucchesi, it’s a shoutout for the Miami offense. The Marlins own the second-highest batting average against left-handed pitching at .283. At home, they have the fourth-highest batting average (.273).
Lucchesi has been giving the Mets length, so this gives Miami more opportunity to rack up runs while he is out there. The Marlins have scored the second-most runs in MLB over the last week.
Taj Bradley, Rays RHP, 6 Pitcher Strikeouts (More) – PrizePicks
Bradley is another young pitcher with great stuff that the Rays somehow keep producing. In two of three starts since returning from the IL, he has gone over six strikeouts. Bradley will face a depleted Angles lineup. Since the All-Star break, the Angles have the fourth-most strikeouts.
Ronald Acuna Jr., Braves OF, 1.5 Total Bases (More) – PrizePicks
It’s easy to back the favorite for NL MVP with confidence on most nights. Tonight, he faces lefty Christopher Sanchez, against whom Acuna is 2 for 4 in his career. Acuna is tied with teammate Matt Olsen with the second-most total bases over the last month. Acuna has topped this number in 10 of 15 games this month, including 4 of 5 against the Phillies.
Luis Castillo, Mariners RHP, 39.5 Fantasy Points (Higher) - Underdog
The Athletics’ lineup is abysmal. Over the last 10 games, they are batting. 213. They have the lowest batting average at home and the lowest team average at .224. The Mariners are in the AL West and Wild Card races.
We can expect Castillo to show up in a big way. In his only other start against Oakland this season, he threw six shutout innings and accumulated 52 fantasy points. We can expect a similar performance tonight.
The Astros host the Orioles in a massive series to measure the strength of each team heading into the postseason. Gibson has allowed at least 3 ER in six of his last seven starts. The Astros have seen Gibson a ton over his career, and Houston has scored the second-most runs in MLB since the All-Star break.
The Dodgers and Mookie face the Tigers Tuesday. Detroit will utilize an opener In this game, Miguel Diaz. We like Mookie to cross the plate because the Tigers bullpen is in the bottom 10 in nearly every category. Mookie has scored the second most runs per game this season, and over the last month, he has the second-best on-base percentage behind only Yordan Alvarez. The Dodgers have scored the second most runs this season, and Mookie is a major reason.
It’s a fully loaded 15-game slate Tuesday evening with several potential stacking opportunities on tap and a quartet of ace-caliber pitchers toeing the rubber. Get your popcorn ready, folks.
Weather Report
After a tumultuous summer filled with weather-related issues, there are zero trouble spots, which is a relief for fantasy managers.
Injury Report
Ryan Mountcastle, Orioles 1B (shoulder)
Mountcastle has missed five straight games and is day-to-day after an MRI came back clean on his left shoulder following his removal from Wednesday’s game against the Cardinals with left shoulder discomfort.
Carlos Correa, Twins SS (foot)
Correa made an early exit from Monday's series opener against the Reds after re-aggravating the plantar fasciitis in his left foot. The 28-year-old has been playing through the ongoing issue for months at this juncture, but there's a possibility he'll require a few days off to recover. He's day-to-day.
Luke Raley, Rays OF (neck)
Raley missed two games over the weekend with neck stiffness following Saturday's on-field collision during batting practice. He's day-to-day heading into Tuesday’s series opener against the Angels.
Christian Yelich, Brewers OF (back)
Yelich has missed nine of Milwaukee's last 10 games, including Monday’s series opener against the Cardinals, with a lower back issue. There’s a possibility he’ll wind up on the injured list if he’s unable to get back in the lineup this week.
Bryan De La Cruz, Marlins OF (ankle)
De La Cruz has missed three consecutive games since being removed from Friday’s game against the Braves with right ankle discomfort. He's day-to-day.
Baty appears likely to avoid a trip to the injured list, but missed his fifth straight game during Monday’s series opener against the Marlins. He had an MRI Thursday that revealed a mild left groin strain. He's day-to-day, but there’s zero incentive for the Mets to rush him back at this late juncture of the season.
Ha-Seong Kim, Padres 2B/SS (abdomen)
Kim sat out Monday’s series opener against the Rockies after being scratched from Sunday’s lineup due to abdominal tightness. The Padres have yet to settle upon an official diagnosis, so fantasy managers should consider him day-to-day for the moment, but there’s a strong possibility he’s going to get some extra time off to rest and recover.
Top Priced Starting Pitchers (DraftKings)
Spencer Strider (ATL) vs. PHI: $12,800
Luis Castillo (SEA) vs. OAK: $11,300
Blake Snell (SD) vs. COL: $10,600
Zac Gallen (AZ) vs. SF: $9,800
Nathan Eovaldi (TEX) vs. BOS: $9,600
Ryan Pepiot (LAD) vs. DET: $9,100
Yusei Kikuchi (TOR) vs. NYY: $8,700
Hunter Brown (HOU) vs. BAL: $8,500
Logan Allen (CLE) vs. KC: $8,400
Michael Lorenzen (PHI) vs. ATLL $8,300
Strider, Castillo, Snell and Gallen are the headliners, as all will finish at or near the top of Cy Young balloting. Strider possesses the strikeout upside to warrant the top spot. But Snell has a tasty home matchup against a Rockies’ lineup that typically struggles outside of Coors Field as he looks to cement his status as NL Cy Young front-runner. Gallen can make noise in a critical division matchup against the Giants after being lit up for six earned runs his last time out against the Mets. Castillo has been about as consistent as it gets, despite not boasting massive strikeout totals, as he looks to propel the Mariners back to the postseason with an extremely favorable matchup against the Athletics.
Sneaky Option
Alex Cobb, Giants RHP, vs. Diamondbacks: $7,500
Cobb will take the ball against the division-rival Diamondbacks after receiving a couple extra days of rest due to an ongoing right hip issue, which cropped up shortly after throwing a 131-pitch complete game against the Reds back in late August.
The 35-year-old has put together arguably his strongest season in nearly a decade, compiling a 3.62 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and 130/36 K/BB ratio across 149 1/3 innings (27 starts). Fantasy managers searching for an alternative outside of the consensus top four starting pitchers for Tuesday's slate should strongly consider Cobb as a low-cost alternative with the upside to spin a gem against a division rival in Arizona.
Stack Attack
White Sox vs. Nationals (RHP Jackson Rutledge)
Fantasy Sports Logic's Contrarian Edge Optimizer is all over the White Sox as they face Nationals pitching prospect Jackson Rutledge, making his second MLB start. The 24-year-old rookie was lit up for seven runs on 10 hits over 3 2/3 innings Wednesday in his big-league debut against the Pirates.
The White Sox' bats should be able to do damage in Washington, which makes loading up on hitters like Luis Robert Jr., Tim Anderson, Andrew Benintendi, Eloy Jiménez, Andrew Vaughn and Gavin Sheets an appealing strategy.
OF Luis Robert Jr.: $5,500
OF Eloy Jiménez: $3,700
3B Yoán Moncada: $3,500
1B Andrew Vaughn: $3,400
SS Tim Anderson: $3,300
OF Andrew Benintendi: $3,300
1B/OF Gavin Sheets: $2,600
Guardians vs. Royals (RHP Alec Marsh)
It will ostensibly be a bullpen game for Kansas City, with Marsh likely making a bulk relief appearance, which sets up Cleveland's lineup in a favorable spot to take advantage following Monday's unexpected late-inning collapse. José Ramírez is the obvious building block, but low-cost alternatives like Josh Naylor, Andrés Giménez, Gabriel Arias, Kole Calhoun, Will Brennan and Bo Naylor make a ton of sense as well.
3B José Ramírez: $5,700
1B Josh Naylor: $4,300
2B Andrés Giménez: $3,700
OF Kole Calhoun: $3,300
C Bo Naylor: $3,200
SS Gabriel Arias: $2,700
OF Will Brennan: $2,500
Padres vs. Rockies (RHP Ryan Feltner)
It’s a must-win for the Padres against Feltner, who is making his first appearance since mid-May, when he was hospitalized after suffering a skull fracture on a line drive. It’s phenomenal to see the 27-year-old right-hander healthy and ready to compete again, but it’s a tough spot to be thrown into, even if it’s away from Coors Field. It would be surprising to see San Diego’s bats go cold in this one after scoring 11 runs on 15 hits during Monday’s series opener.
It’s a busier-than-usual Monday with 11 games, but it doesn’t appear any of are in danger of getting postponed with very little chance of rain.
Injury Report:
Salvador Perez, Royals C, Concussion -- Perez was placed on the seven-day injured list Sunday after being hit in the mask by a foul ball Saturday against the Astros. The Royals are also missing Freddy Fermin for the rest of the season due to a finger injury, so Kansas City will line up Logan Porter and Tyler Cropley behind the plate for the foreseeable future. Neither Porter nor Cropley offer any type of fantasy value.
Ha-Seong Kim, Padres LHP, Abdomen -- Kim was scratched from the lineup Sunday due to discomfort in his abdomen. As of publication, the results of the testing of the infielder are unavailable, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if he’s held out -- maybe even placed on the injured list -- with the Padres all but eliminated from postseason contention.
Tyler O’Neill, Cardinals OF, Foot: O’Neill was placed on the 10-day injured list with a sprained right foot before Sunday’s game. The outfielder will all but assuredly miss the rest of the season and wasn’t exactly playing at an elite level prior to the injury. The Cardinals called up Juan Yepez, a hitter who has had mixed success but put up big numbers in the minors. He could be a sneaky fantasy option when he’s in the lineup over the final weeks.
Top Priced Starting Pitchers for Main Slate (DraftKings)
Freddy Peralta vs. STL: $11,300
Zack Wheeler vs. ATL: $10,900
Justin Verlander vs. BAL: $10,500
Eduardo Rodriguez vs. LAD: $9,400
Michael Wacha vs. TEX: $ $8,900
Good options, with Peralta unsurprisingly the most expensive at your disposal. The right-hander has been on a strong run with at least nine strikeouts in four of his last five chances. His ERA has dropped from 4.46 at the start of August to 3.79. With St. Louis playing the string out, there’s plenty of reason to believe Peralta will pile up the strikeouts without much damage inflicted upon him.
Rodriguez vs. Lynn is an intriguing matchup, and there’s added flavor because of what happened -- and what didn’t happen -- at the deadline. Lynn was traded from the White Sox to Los Angeles near the deadline, while Rodriguez evoked his no-trade clause to block a trade to the Dodgers on deadline day.
Both pitchers haven’t been great as of late, but Lynn offers the better chance for a win even with his team no longer having anything to play for with Los Angeles clinching the AL West on Sunday in Seattle.
The highest risk -- but potentially highest reward -- comes with Verlander and his five-figure cost against Baltimore. The right-hander has 5.40 ERA in September, and he’ll be facing one of the best lineups in the Orioles. While that offers risk, Verlander was pitching as well as anyone at the end of August, and he’s gone seven innings in his last two outings with a 13/1 K/BB over 14 frames.
It’s a tough ask, but Verlander is going to be worthy of roster consideration until he decides to retire in 2042 or so.
Sneaky option
Bryan Woo vs. Athletics: $7,200
‘Sneaky’? Against lowly Oakland? Woo’s price point makes him the best pitching option. The rookie right-hander has been up-and-down in 2023, but he’s coming off his best start of the season -- 5.2 scoreless frames with eight strikeouts against the Angels.
The Mariners essentially are in must-win mode in order to stay in the division race as well as the Wild Card, and it’s reasonable to expect quality run support behind Woo with J.P. Sears on the bump for the A’s.
You can add Woo and one of the big-name starters above, and process suggests you should have a nice little Monday.
Stack Attack
Phillies vs. Atlanta (Kyle Wright)
C J.T. Realmuto: $5,000
1B Bryce Harper: $5,000
2B Bryson Stott: $4,600
OF Brandon Marsh: $3,300
Wright has had success at the highest level, but he missed over four months with injury, and he didn't look great in his return to the mound Monday with six runs allowing over three innings. The Phillies are fighting for a chance to host a postseason series as the top Wild Card in the National League, and this stack gives you some “star” options in Realmuto and Harper with some relatively ‘cheap” plays in Stott and Marsh. On paper, this one makes an awful lot of sense.
Brewers vs. Cardinals (Adam Wainwright)
C William Contreras: $5,100
2B Brice Turang: $3,300
SS Willy Adames: $4,300
OF Christian Yelich: $5,200
OF Mark Canha: $3,200
It’s simple -- if Wainwright is starting, take advantage. He’s pitched well in two of his last three outings in terms of run-prevention but hasn’t struck out more than five hitters in a start since May 29. It’s hard to take any recent success too seriously with a 7.95 ERA over his 94 innings.
Get as many Milwaukee hitters in the lineup as you can. Congrats on a great career, Mr. Wainwright, but he’s someone fantasy managers must attack over the last starts of his career.
An optimizer is a powerful tool to harness in DFS play, capable of bulk operations in an instant that would otherwise take hours of manipulation to perform manually. Like any other tool, one must first learn how to wield an optimizer before its true power can be realized.
That is exactly what we will look to sort through in this weekly series. We’ll focus on Contrarian Edge Optimizer use at Fantasy Sports Logic for the Monday slates each week of the 2023 season to explore the tool itself, maximize expected value through optimal utilization, and provide a sneak peek into the newest, and most dynamic, optimizer in the industry.
Stacking and Correlation
It is no secret in today’s DFS scene that stacking and correlation are optimal practices to boost profitability. But why is that the case? Stacking and correlation simultaneously reduce the number of variables that need to go right and maximize ceiling when those variables do go right. In other words, stacking and correlation provide paths to bulk scoring by leveraging team tendencies in various game environments.
Game Environment Bets
Targeting specific game environments in NFL DFS is typically the most optimal approach to utilizing these processes. A competitive game environment that pushes past it’s game total can provide more offensive plays run from scrimmage (more opportunity for fantasy points to accrue), more touchdowns (the bulk scoring function), increased pass rates (more opportunity for points in a PPR setting), and influence a team’s play calling tendencies (more aggression).
Team Stacking Functionality
The Team Stacking dropdown toggle in the Contrarian Edge Optimizer provides the ability to quickly influence the optimizer’s logic towards heavier rates of team stacks. Simply select the dropdown menu and choose the team you would like to boost stacking with. While a powerful tool in and of itself, Fantasy Sports Logic’s Contrarian Edge Optimizer provides more fluidity through a nuanced team boost approach as well.
Monday Night Football Doubleheader
Most of the articles in this series will cover Showdown slates as we’re exploring Monday Night Football slates. This week, however, we have a Monday Night Football doubleheader on the docket, allowing us to explore more of the full range of tools at our disposal through the Contrarian Edge Optimizer.
Auto Team Stacking Bonus
The Auto Team Stacking Bonus toggle allows a percentage boost to be applied to players on the team that the quarterback is selected from. You can then apply the desired percentage boost to influence the optimizer’s decision-making to tilt the logic towards team stacks. This allows for more fluidity in its logic when compared to other more rigid tools that would attempt to force team stacking per prescribed rules. You can then influence the team of the stack by using both functionalities in the optimizer.
There are also certain theoretical stacking practices that the optimizer is well-equipped to handle. Through a study performed on the Milly Maker tournament on DraftKings, where I examined the weekly optimal rosters and compared them to the winning rosters each slate, I found that 22.2 percent of the optimal rosters included a quarterback paired with his tight end.
While that makes sense considering tight end scoring is heavily correlated to touchdown production, and the quarterback would be the player on the other end of those touchdowns, the field’s utilization of this practice falls short of its hit rate. That fundamentally provides leverage on the field.
Furthermore, I also found that running backs were included on the optimal stack 18 percent of the time, yet the field still largely avoids playing a running back with a quarterback. But if a quarterback is succeeding, it makes it that much more likely that his running back also succeeds due to the higher likelihood of things like drives reaching the red zone, touchdown opportunities, and overall game environment.
By Position Stacking Bonus
Both underutilized tendencies can be influenced by the user in the Contrarian Edge Optimizer through the By Position Stacking bonus functionality. Under “Set Pro Options,” select the Auto Team Stacking Bonus toggle and the By Position toggle. Then, apply the desired boost to tight end and running back, which will influence the optimizer’s inputs under specific conditions.
As you can see, the Contrarian Edge Optimizer is an invaluable tool to building bulk rosters for DFS play. To best harness its abilities, we must first have a working knowledge of the varying options to utilize as inputs in addition to a theoretical and conceptual working knowledge of the game of NFL DFS. This article series will attempt to further our understanding in both those areas throughout the season.
Week 2 was the time to see if our eyes were deceiving us. Were the Week 1 studs legit? Was it really time to panic about some of our underperforming high draft picks? Were the Giants really not going to score a single point this season? (OK, that was a stretch, but it looked a little hairy there through six quarters).
We got some of our answers in Week 2, so let’s recap!
10 Studs
Puka Nacua – 147 yds. 15 receptions
Kyren Williams – 100 total yds. 2 TDs
Daniel Jones – 321 pass yds, 59 rush yds, 2 passing TDs 1 rushing TD
Keenan Allen – 111 yds, 2 TDs
Mike Evans – 171 yds, 1 TD
Raheem Mostert – 121 yds, 2 TDs
Nico Collins – 146 yds, 1 TD
Hunter Henry – 52 yds, 1 TD
Brian Robinson – 129 total yds, 2 TDs
Bijan Robinson – 170 total yds
So, you spent half of your FAAB dollars on a guy some of your league mates had never heard of. You were mocked and told that you could’ve gotten him for so much less (if only you knew the other bids). And, of course, you were asked what happens when Cooper Kupp comes back.
Well, Puka Nacua rewarded your good faith with 15 grabs on 20 targets and that’s something Kupp has never done. He seems fully capable of filling Kupp’s role while he’s out, and you know what’s better than one Kupp? Make it a double.
If by some chance Puka is available in your league, get him. One more thing: if you benched him because you were afraid the 49ers would shut him down, you may have cost yourself a W – couldn’t be me. No, never…
Meanwhile, Kyren Williams' abilities apparently made Cam Akers inactive. Well, maybe not Williams himself, but Akers tweeted out that he was “confused” about being a healthy scratch in Week 2. Williams didn’t disappoint and will be the guy going forward as the Rams seek a trade for their other running back.
DANNY DIMES! Hoo boy, finally. It looked bad for Big Blue through six quarters of the season. After being smacked around by Dallas in Week 1, they were being shut out at halftime to the lowly Cardinals. But Daniel Jones is the guy fantasy owners took for his rushing upside. He also got new weapon Darren Waller involved.
All these things are positive, but the Giants don’t play the Cardinals every week. It does look like their defense isn’t going to keep them in many games, so it’ll be up to Dimes to use his arms and legs going forward and, hopefully, that means more points ahead.
A couple of “old guys” are really representing out there through two weeks. Keenan Allen is doing Keenan Allen things with Justin Herbert. He caught both of Herbert‘s passing touchdowns while dominating the target share through two weeks.
In Tampa, Mike Evans scored again while on his way to 171 yards and another Buccaneers W. Evans is clicking with Baker Mayfield early on and putting to rest some post-Brady questions. Both veterans are top-5 fantasy receivers in the young season.
Is Raheem Mostert back to Raheem MustStart? While the Patriots did their best to limit the Dolphins’ passing attack, Mostert gashed them on the ground with 121 yards and two touchdowns, including a 41-yard, untouched run into the end zone. Some of his production will be based on Mike McDaniel’s schemes, but you could do a lot worse than starting a guy in the Dolphins offense.
Hunter Henry’s stat line isn’t eye popping, but it’s clear Mac Jones is looking his way. Henry’s not going to score every week, but in an offense that might not have many dynamic plays, he’ll be a threat in the red zone whenever New England gets close.
Welcome, Nico Collins. You might not see many “in real life” wins this season, but we don’t care! Your career day shows that Texans rookie QB C.J. Stroud is gonna keep looking your way, and he’s going to need to. Dameon Pierce has left a lot to be desired in the ground game through two weeks, and the offense is going to be in comeback mode quite a bit this season. Keep it rolling, young man!
The law firm of Robinson and Robinson didn’t need to make much of a case in Week 2. Brian Robinson made sure everyone knew he was *the* guy in the Commanders backfield. His 18 carries lapped the field as Antonio Gibson only carried it twice. Gibson might grab a touchdown or two in the passing game, but I’m not worried.
Bijan Robinson impressed with his 172 total yards, but don’t gloss over the fact that they were scoreless and *probably* (no, no, DEFINITELY) shouldn’t have been. Falcons coach Arthur Smith doesn’t care about your fantasy team, we get it, but maybe he should care about using his best players on his own team. Robinson is the 2-minute back in Atlanta, but when the Falcons get close to the goal line, they barely have him on the field. He’s taken just two snaps inside the 5.
Duds
I wrote about the Bengals last week and taking a “wait and see” approach and, quite frankly, I’m not loving what I see. They made it a game against Baltimore and came up just short, that’s the good.
But if I’m a Ja’Marr Chase backer (and I am! I have him in plenty of leagues) then I’m not thrilled with my investment so far – 10 grabs and 70 yards won’t cut it, but I’m an optimist. I’m not selling and I’d look to buy low if any league mate is desperate.
The caution is Joe Burrow’s wonky calf muscle. Missed time for him won’t give me extra confidence in Chase, obviously, but he’s too talented to be this hapless … right?
Let’s throw Alexander Mattison, Josh Jacobs, and Jahmyr Gibbs on this pile, also. Mattison has just never quite seemed to be able to be the No. 1 stud RB he seems to be when he was playing second fiddle to Dalvin Cook.
Where is Josh Jacobs the rushing champion? He’s frustrated and so are we. HE HAD NEGATIVE TWO YARDS AGAINST THE BILLS. That’s not rust, that’s just broken.
As for Gibbs, I’ve been tempering my expectations because of what I saw happen to D’Andre Swift in Detroit (he’s pretty good, eh?). A David Montgomery injury might drastically change the situation for Gibbs, but we’ll have to see it. If I were Gibbs, I’d look into joining the auto worker strike down the road to demand more from the powers that be.
With just 11 games on tap Monday, there aren’t a ton of interesting matchups for fantasy managers to target. However, there are plenty of intriguing props, including a pair of conservative strikeout totals for both Freddy Peralta and José Butto.
Freddy Peralta, Brewers RHP: 6.5 strikeouts – Over (PrizePicks)
Peralta has been on an absolute heater of late, allowing three earned runs or fewer in 10 of 11 starts since the All-Star break, while also notching at least nine strikeouts in six of those outings. He’ll take the ball against a Cardinals’ lineup that ranks 27th with a .689 OPS in 25 games over the last month. They're not the most aggressive bunch, but Peralta should be able to coax enough swings and misses to reach at least seven punch outs.
José Butto, Mets RHP: 4.0 strikeouts – Over (Underdog & PrizePicks)
Butto has posted at least five strikeouts in three consecutive outings since rejoining New York's pitching mix on August 15. He'll face a surging Marlins' lineup, but they’ve been pedestrian overall against right-handed pitching with a .710 OPS, which ranks 21st in baseball.
Teoscar Hernández, Mariners OF: 7.0 fantasy points -- Over (Underdog)
Hernández is batting .304 against left-handed pitching and is 2-for-5 against southpaw JP Sears, who will take the ball in Oakland. There aren't a ton of stacking options for fantasy managers, but loading up on Seattle's right-handed batters seems like a strong decision.
Corey Seager, Rangers SS: 0.5 singles – Over (Underdog)
It's possible the biggest risk to Seager not hitting this number is that all of his hits will go for extra bases against a Red Sox' pitching staff that wrapped up an extremely taxing series over the weekend in Toronto. Boston faces a Texas team that remains in the hunt for a playoff spot and desperately needs this game after being swept by the Guardians. Fantasy managers should expect Seager to show up for this one.
Elly De La Cruz, SS Reds: 7.0 fantasy points – Under (Underdog)
De La Cruz is one of the most intriguing talents in baseball but is mired in an extended slump, batting .192 (30-for-156) with just four homers and 12 steals in 41 games since August 1. He possesses the raw talent to put together a monster performance, but that'll be a tall order against Minnesota right-hander Joe Ryan, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in four consecutive starts since returning from the injured list back on August 26.
We have a full slate of games scheduled for Sunday across MLB, there will be a handful of inexperienced starting pitchers taking the mound, and some big-time smash spots for some of the best lineups in baseball. I’ll dive into the foundational building blocks you need to construct your lineups around.
Weather Report
There are clear skies expected for every game.
Injury Report
Ronald Acuna Jr – Calf: Acuna left Friday’s game early due to calf tightness and missed Saturday’s game. It’s uncertain if he will be back in the lineup.
Ryan Mountcastle – Shoulder: Mountcastle has missed the last three games and there is no update on whether we will play.
Triston Casas – Shoulder: Casas was placed on the 10-day IL.
Shohei Ohtani – Oblique: The superstar was placed on the 10-day IL and has been shut down for the remainder of the season.
David Peralta – Back: Peralta sat out Friday’s game and it’s unknown if his back tightness will keep him out.
Bryan De La Cruz – Ankle: He exited Friday’s game early, sat on Saturday, and it’s unknown if he will be in Sunday’s lineup.
Manny Machado – Elbow: Manny did not play Saturday and is questionable for Sunday.
Top Priced Starting Pitchers (DraftKings)
Brandon Woodruff vs. WAS: $10,800
Framber Valdez @ KC: $9,900
Charlie Morton @ MIA: $9,500
Sonny Gray @ CWS: $9,300
Jesus Luzardo vs. ATL: $8,900
Dylan Cease vs. MIN: $8,600
Woodruff appears worth paying the premium for. Since returning from the IL in August, he's allowed two earned runs or less in six of seven outings and hasn't allowed a run in his past two games. In four starts at home, he has a 1.07 ERA over 25.1 innings pitched! The Contrarian Edge Optimizer suggests paying up for Woodruff.
The Braves' Morton looks like a good option on paper but avoid him. In two starts versus Miami he has allowed one ER on seven hits over 12.2 innings, but he has struggled in day games with a 4.35 ERA compared to 3.09 ERA at night. He has also struggled in his two starts in September, and Miami has the fourth-highest batting average in MLB at .270 at home.
Sneaky Option
Dylan Cease vs. MIN: $8,600
There are not many “sneaky” options. There’s a handful of openers so it’s difficult to rely on some of the cheaper choices. Instead, we’re going to turn to Cease and hope he brings his strikeout stuff and better command.
The one holdup I have is that the Twins own the fifth-highest walk rate in MLB. The good part is they have the highest strikeout rate per game. Cease has been better at home this season and he should give us some length. This one is scary to trust but we’re riding with the mustache man.
Stack Attack
Brewers vs. Nationals (Patrick Corbin)
What a shock! We’re looking to stack against Corbin. The Contrarian Edge Optimizer suggests getting Brewers bats in your lineups. Expect a poor outing against a Milwaukee lineup that is in the top 10 in runs scored and has the sixth highest batting average in September.
The Brewers lineup projects nicely despite occasional struggles against lefties. The Nats' bullpen owns the fourth-worst ERA, so if they chase Corbin early, they could continue producing.
1B Carlos Santana $3,800
2B Andruw Monasterio $3,000
C William Contreras $5,100
SS Willy Adames $4,400
OF Mark Canha $3,000
OF Joey Weimer $2,600
Astros vs. Royals (Jordan Lyles)
This is what dreams are made of. Lyles and Corbin pitching on the same day! Unfortunately for Lyles, he faces a deep Astros lineup, and has an 8.78 ERA over 11 starts in day games. Jose Altuve has two homers in 14 at-bats off Lyle. Of course, it’s always worth getting Yordan Alvarez in your lineup if you can. He’s 3 for 8 in this series with 2 doubles and has a strong history of success at Kauffman Stadium.
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