Christopher Crawford has written about baseball and football for an amount of time he's uncomfortable disclosing. He can be found on social media @crawford_milb.
Great pick'em choices for Friday's MLB playoff games
A pivotal Game 5 in the ALCS and Game 4 in the NLCS is on tab for Friday, and with it comes some fun over/under challenges to potentially take advantage of.
Montgomery was fantastic in Game 1 and has been since the middle of September. He hasn't piled up strikeouts, but he's reached this total in seven of his last eight starts. You could argue he's due for some regression, but even if he's mediocre it’s likely he’ll pick up five-plus punchouts.
Turner has picked up at least one hit in every postseason game so far for the Phillies, and he’s slashing a robust .471/.556/.882 with three homers and four stolen bases over those nine contests. Now, the right-handed hitting infielder will take on Joe Mantiply and the Arizona bullpen with a chance to give Philadelphia a commanding 3-1 lead. After scoring just one run against Brandon Pfaadt and Arizona in Thursday’s loss, it’s a good bet that Turner and the D-Backs offense will turn things around Friday.
The Marte part-ay has been alive and well in the postseason, with the switch-hitting infielder registering a 1.046 OPS in the playoffs. He’s coming off a three-hit day with a pair of doubles in Game 3, and he’ll face Cristopher Sanchez and the Philadelphia bullpen. Ride the hot hand, especially against a pitcher that hasn’t appeared in a game since September 30.
Garcia has been solid in helping Texas get to this point and did go 2-for-4 with a homer against the Astros on Thursday. The outfielder has struggled against Justin Verlander, however, going 2-for-11 with no extra-base hits and three strikeouts. It will just take a two-bagger or better to reach this total, but after going deep in the loss Thursday, I’ll bet on some regression in this case, (relatively) confidently.
Sanchez has not played since September 30. The left-hander was solid in the regular season with a 3.44 ERA in just-over 99 innings, but this will be his first ever appearance in the postseason, and it’s hard to simulate that experience. It seems likely Sanchez will only go through the Arizona lineup one time and asking him to strike out a quality Arizona lineup more than three times in a short time is asking a lot.
Imagine betting the under on any total for Yordan Alvarez in a postseason game. Couldn’t be me. I don’t care if it’s a lefty on the mound. I don’t care that it’s a high total that basically requires him to drive in a run or pick up two-plus hits. It doesn’t matter. It’s Yordan Alvarez. That’s all the analysis you need.
The best roster options for Jaguars-Saints game
After a Thursday Night Football game last week that is best to just pretend didn’t exist -- not the first time we’ve said that, and certainly not the last -- this one could be pretty good, and based on the betting odds, Vegas seems to agree.
New Orleans Saints vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Saints
Jaguars
Jaguars
Lawrence is dealing with a knee sprain and was a limited participant in both Tuesday and Wednesday’s practices. The third-year signal-caller is expected to play, but monitor this situation. CJ Beathard would likely start if the Jaguars decide to take precaution and sit Lawrence, and that would be an awfully risky fantasy play.
Saints
Johnson will miss a fourth straight game since he picked up a calf injury before Week 4 against the Buccaneers. That should open things up again for Taysom Hill -- more on him later -- with Jimmy Graham and Foster Moreau also inline for targets.
Williams was designated for return by the Saints this week off injured reserve after missing the previous few weeks with his hamstring injury, and he was a limited participant for practices prior to Thursday’s contest. If he is active, it seems likely he’ll see touches in the red zone, but Williams will have tough sledding against a Jacksonville defense that ranks third in total yards on the ground, and seventh in yards per attempt.
It’s weird to see two running backs at the top of the list before you see a quarterback, but the Lawrence injury is baked into that equation, as is the fact that Kamara has received at least 25 touches in each of his three games and the Jaguars are ranked 15th in opponents points per game against RBs. Etienne will be facing a much stingier test with the Saints ranking second-best in points allowed to RBs, but his (all but) assured large workload makes him worth consideration.
Carr has not been able to get the ball downfield in his first season with the Saints, and he needed 50 attempts to get up to 353 yards after throwing for just 403 yards combined in his previous three contests. He does have competent weapons in Olave, Thomas and Kamara -- among others -- and he’ll be facing a defense that ranks 31st in yards allowed and 22nd in passing touchdowns. If Carr can’t throw downfield in this one, it’s time to get concerned -- if you aren’t already.
Ridley hasn’t shown much consistency – he’s topped 100 yards twice but hasn’t surpassed 40 in the other four games. While the yardage hasn’t always been there, the former Atlanta wideout has been a target hog with seven or more in five games. All due respect to players like Olave, Kirk and Thomas; but Ridley is the player I’d be looking to roster first.
Taysom Hill, TE, NO: $6,200
Hill typically isn’t involved in the passing game despite being listed as a tight end, but that changed in the loss to the Texans with eight targets and seven receptions for the “former” quarterback. Some of that may have to do with game script -- again, Carr threw 50 times in that loss -- but with Juwan Johnson not available and a solid showing when give the opportunity, it shouldn’t be a big surprise if Hill sees a good number of targets again against Jacksonville.
Brandon McManus, K, JAX: $4,800
I promised two weeks ago I would try and limit kicker talk, but on a Thursday format that relies entirely on flex plays, McManus makes sense. The Jaguars have gotten into field goal range plenty, and while they’ve finished those drives with touchdowns 14 times, McManus has also been called upon to kick 14 field goal attempts – three against the Colts. At that price point, it makes a lot of sense to have McManus in your lineup.
Brenton Strange, TE, JAX: $1,000
Strange scored a touchdown while picking up 27 yards in the victory over the Colts and played 55 percent of the snaps, a season-high for the rookie. The 6-foot-4 tight end was a second-round selection for the Jaguars, and while he isn’t likely to be among the leaders for targets, he can still provide fantasy production at this price point. Adding a player like Strange also allows you to add more stars to your lineup, which is always nice.
This is probably the most evenly matched Thursday Night Football game -- on paper – this season. If Lawrence can’t play that changes things quite a bit, but the Jags just seem like the more talented team at this point in the season and the more likely winner, even with the game in New Orleans.
Jaguars 23, Saints 14
Pitching and stacks options for ALCS, NLCS
Rangers at Astros, ALCS Game 2, 4:37 p.m. ET
Diamondbacks at Phillies, NLCS Game 1, 8:07 p.m. ET
It will be a smidgen on the cold side in Philadelphia with a very slight chance of rain, but both games should be played without issue.
Brandon Woodruff -- shoulder: It’s not relevant to the LCS, but it is big news. Woodruff underwent surgery to repair the anterior capsule in his right shoulder, and he’s expected to miss most -- if not all -- of the 2024 season. When healthy, the right-hander has been one of the best pitchers in baseball, but now the question is if Woodruff has thrown his last pitch as a Brewer since he’s not signed past the upcoming season. Either way, he won’t provide very much fantasy relevance in 2024, if any.
Wheeler and Gallen are the headliners and are big reasons why both teams are just four wins away from the World Series. In his two postseason starts thus far, Wheeler has allowed three runs with a sensational 18/1 K/BB over 13 frames, while Gallen has pitched well in both of his postseason starts while picking up wins.
Wheeler makes more sense as a DFS play because he’s much more likely to miss bats, and the Phillies do have home-field advantage.
It’s a little surprising that Eovaldi is cheapest, but part of that is the Rangers won Game 1 and Houston is the favorite to even the series. That said, he’ll be in my DFS lineup. No pitcher in this postseason has impressed me more. The right-hander has yet to walk a batter while striking out 15 in his starts against the Orioles and Rays, and his 1.32 ERA doesn’t really tell the story of just how dominant he’s been. Considering his postseason track record and how well he pitched earlier this year, there’s evidence this isn’t just smoke and mirrors.
One thing that gives me a little bit of hesitancy for using the Rangers -- outside of the fact that Valdez is really good -- is this will be the first time this postseason they face a left-handed starter. They were fine against southpaws in the regular season (.788 OPS compared to .790 against right-handers), and I think there are some things to exploit here. Potentially, anyway.
Valdez walked three batters in his shaky start against Minnesota in the ALDS, and the Rangers have patient hitters who can take advantage of self-inflicted damage.
I’m relying heavily on the Phillies and Rangers, as I think those are your two winners. I do get a piece of both the Astros and D-Backs with Walker and Pena, but I don’t want to see too much damage done against my starters.
I like Castellanos and Schwarber to put together strong games against Gallen, and while I hope it’s kept to a minimum -- strictly for financial purposes -- both Walker and Pena have a good chance for solid games.
CC breaks down the ALCS and NLCS
After a Wild Card round that saw four sweeps, there were two more in the League Division Series, and no series went beyond four games. Now, we have our League Championship Series set, with Texas taking on the Astros in the ALCS and the Phillies battling the upstart Diamondbacks in the NLCS.
Here’s what to look for in each series with a prediction for who will meet in the World Series, which begins Oct. 27.
Betting Odds: Astros - 140, Rangers +120 (DraftKings)
Regular season results: Astros 9, Rangers 4
How the Astros got here: AL West champions, 3-1 series win over Minnesota in the American League Division Series.
How the Rangers got here: 2-0 series win over Tampa Bay in the Wild Card Series; 3-0 series win over Baltimore in the American League Division Series.
Lineups: The Astros have loads of playoff experience and a red-hot Yordan Alvarez, who has pulverized postseason pitching throughout his career, to go with October stalwarts like Jose Altuve (outside of his dreadful 2022 run) and Alex Bregman to go with a resurgent Jose Abreu, among others. The Rangers, meanwhile, have one of the most complete groups in baseball, led by MVP candidate Corey Seager but also Marcus Semien, rookie wunderkind Evan Carter and a host of other players capable of taking the ball out of the park.
Advantage: Rangers
Rotation: This should be an advantage for the Astros, but how big of one depends on whether or not Max Scherzer (shoulder) returns. Nathan Eovaldi has been phenomenal in the postseason throughout his career and Jordan Montgomery was a massive get for the injury-riddled Texas rotation at the deadline. There are significant questions behind those two, questions that become less emphasized if Scherzer makes the roster, while the Astros will have Justin Verlander, Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier and likely Jose Urquidy.
Advantage: Astros, but again, depends on whether Scherzer can go.
Bullpen: An easy one, on paper, anyway. The Rangers’ bullpen was awful down the stretch even after the acquisition of Aroldis Chapman, and while Jose LeClerc and Josh Sborz have been able to get the job done, it’s fair to say Texas fans will have unease in the late innings. Meanwhile, the Astros have a reliable closer in Ryan Pressly, two set-up relievers that were lights out in Bryan Abreu and Hector Neris, and the ability to use talented rookie Hunter Brown -- or Urquidy -- as a multi-inning option. This one’s not close. Advantage: Astros.
Prediction: The Astros are clearly the better pitching team, but Texas has been streaky all year, and they appear to be on another hot streak. I’ll predict them to stay hot in what should be a very fun series. Rangers in 7.
Betting Odds: Phillies - 170, Diamondbacks +170 (DraftKings)
Regular season results: Phillies 4, Diamondbacks 3
How the Phillies got here: 2-0 series win over Miami in the NL Wild Card Series, 3-1 win over Atlanta in the National League Division Series.
How the Rangers got here: 2-0 series win over Milwaukee in the NL Wild Card Series, 3-0 series win over Los Angeles in the National League Division Series.
Lineups: The Diamondbacks were a middle-of-the-road lineup in 2023, ranking 14th in runs scored, batting average and on-base percentage. In the postseason, however, Arizona has looked the part, led by superstar rookie Corbin Carroll but also getting significant contributions from Ketel Marte, Christian Walker, Gabriel Moreno and Tommy Pham. The Phillies’ lineup seems a tad more reliable with superstars Bryce Harper and Trea Turner and a host of other quality options.
Advantage: Phillies.
Rotation: This one’s close. Arizona and Philadelphia have excellent options at the top in Zac Gallen and Zack Wheeler, respectively, and a quality No. 2 with Aaron Nola for the Phillies and Merrill Kelly for the Diamondbacks. Brandon Pfaadt will be the third starter for Arizona and has pitched well in the postseason after a (very) inconsistent rookie campaign, and it’ll likely be Ryne Nelson in Game 4. That’s where the edge goes to the Phillies, as Ranger Suarez and either Taijuan Walker or Cristopher Sanchez getting the ball in the fourth game.
Advantage: Phillies.
Bullpen: The Diamondbacks were a bit of a mess for most of the season, but the trade for Paul Sewald helped solidify the backend of the relief corps, and arms like Kevin Ginkel, Joe Mantiply and Andrew Saalfrank were fantastic in the first two postseason series. Philadelphia had bullpen issues over the previous two seasons, but the return of Jose Alvarado gives them a legit relief “ace,” and a resurgent Craig Kimbrel along with impressive rookie Orion Kerkering gives the Phils their best postseason bullpen in quite some time.
Advantage: Gotta go Phillies, just based on the track record.
Prediction: I’ve predicted the Diamondbacks to flame out in each of the previous series, and it hasn’t worked out (note: it has nothing to do with disdain towards Arizona, they’re truly one of my favorite postseason stories in years.) I won’t do that this time, but I am going to pick a Philadelphia team that just seems built for October and will have the home field advantage. Phillies in 6.
CC gets you ready for Broncos-Chiefs on TNF
On paper, this is not only a mismatch, it’s one of the more lopsided games of the 2023 season. That being said, there’s a reason why we play the games, and well, weirder things have happened.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Denver Broncos
Chiefs
Chiefs
TE Travis Kelce (Ankle), QUESTIONABLE
Kelce was able to return to Sunday’s victory over the Vikings after suffering a low ankle sprain and even scored a touchdown, but it’s a short recovery time for the All-Pro tight end, and he was limited in both of his practices this week. If Kelce can’t go, Noah Gray is likely to get the start and has shown he’s capable of providing fantasy relevance, but there’s obviously a big difference in talent between Gray and Kelce.
Broncos
TE Greg Dulcich (Hamstring): QUESTIONABLE
Dulcich was a full participant in his last practice, and the Broncos designated him for return from injured reserve Tuesday. That doesn’t necessarily mean he'll be active, however, as Denver has a 21-day period to decide. If Dulcich does come off IR, he should see a decent amount of snaps and targets in a game where Denver is likely going to have to throw the football. A lot.
The biggest injury news for Denver is a non-designation, however. Javonte Williams appears to be a full-go after missing Sunday’s loss to the Jets with a quadriceps injury. The 23-year-old tailback has played 40-45 percent of the snaps when active, so while he can’t be considered the bell cow, he should see plenty of touches against a Kansas City rushing defense that ranks 23rd in yards-per-attempt (4.3).
Even if Kelce can’t play and the rest of the KC receiving group isn't exactly drawing the envy of the league, it’s hard to picture Mahomes not having a big game against the Denver defense. Even while ranking just eighth in opponent pass attempts, the Broncos currently rank 29th in yards allowed and dead last in preventing passing touchdowns and net yards per attempt. Simply put, the best quarterback in the sport is going to face arguably the worst passing defense in the sport. Gulp.
While Mahomes is the obvious choice for a big night, Wilson has a good chance to put up some numbers as well, especially with the veteran signal-caller likely needing to chuck the ball to keep up with the Kansas City offense. The Chiefs have allowed 5.2 yards per attempt (5th in the NFL), but they’ve already “allowed” 185 passing attempts and 1,021 yards as teams have given up on the run early. Wilson is not the same player he was a few years ago in Seattle, but he should be able to put up decent stats --albeit in a likely loss.
The return of Williams puts a damper on his situation, but McLaughlin is an intriguing play after impressing over the last two weeks. The rookie running back has turned 16 carries over the last two games into 140 yards and caught a touchdown pass in each of the last two contests. A large bulk of the yardage for McLaughlin has come on long runs more than churning them out but that big-play ability does make him worth a shot in DFS formats, as does his involvement in the passing game.
Marvin Mims Jr., WR, DEN: $4,600
Mims disappointed in the loss to the Jets with just one reception for four yards, and he’s clearly behind Sutton and Jeudy in the pecking order while competing for targets from the Denver tailbacks and tight ends. Mims still leads the Broncos in receiving yardage with 246 through five games, and he’s one of the few big-play threats on the roster. Mims isn’t likely to see more than a spoonful of targets, but he only needs to turn one of them into a big play to have a successful day. I’d be willing to bet on it.
Samaje Perine, RB, DEN: $5,000
Perine ranks third on the Broncos in targets behind Sutton and Jeudy and hauled in four passes for 73 yards against the Jets. The veteran running back may not receive many carries with McLaughlin breaking out and the return of Williams, but there’s no doubt Perine will see a role in the passing game. It’s very likely the Chiefs offense and weak Broncos defense will make this a game where Denver has to throw quite often. It shouldn’t shock if he puts up similar -- if not better -- numbers to the ones he put up against New York.
Justyn Ross, WR, KC: $600
Calling this a shot in the dark is the understatement of understatements. Ross has just three catches on the season, but two of those came against Minnesota on Sunday, and he was targeted four times despite playing just six offensive snaps. The (extremely) low price would allow fantasy players to target the overwhelming majority of big names, and if this game gets out of hand, it’s not hard to imagine that Ross will see more playing time in the second half than he typically does; similar to what took place in the rout of the Bears in Week 3. Again, it’s risky, but if you’re running low on funds for your lineup, why not?
A glass-half-full person would note that the Broncos could very easily be 3-2 with two one-score losses and a late defensive touchdown by the Jets that prevented a third. A glass-half-empty person would note that Denver has played one of the weaker schedules in the league, should have lost the only game they won if not for some silly mistakes by the Bears, and gave up a 70-burger to the Dolphins in the one game against a true contender in 2023. Someone who just sees a glass with some water in it will say that the Chiefs are good and the Broncos aren’t.
Chiefs 34, Broncos 23
CC details his best PrizePicks and Underdog choices
There are three playoff games Wednesday, with plenty of chances for fun over/under plays as we march towards the League Championship Series in the American League and National League.
The starting pitching options aren’t great Wednesday, but Nola is the best and gave up one run in seven innings against the Marlins in his last outing. He only struck out three, but that has more to do with the aggressiveness of the Miami lineup. Even against a loaded Atlanta lineup, there’s a very good chance Nola will strike out more than five in Game 3.
This is a low total and is more of a bet of Ryan not going long innings. He had a 5.22 ERA in the second half of the season and allowed 32 homers in 29 starts (162 innings) overall. He’ll face strong Houston hitters like Yordan Alvarez and Alex Bregman and there’s a strong chance this will be a short outing for Ryan in a game Minnesota must win to keep its season going.
The Dodgers haven’t gotten anything going in their first two games of the postseason and need a win Wednesday to survive. Freeman only got on base three times in the first two games, but the last time he faced Brandon Pfaadt -- the D-backs’ Game 3 starter -- he went 2-for-4 with a homer.
A double and a walk will hit this total for those who bet the under, and we’ve seen Freeman reach that result (or better) throughout the 2023 campaign. Look for the 2020 MVP to have a big game against Pfaadt and the Arizona pitching staff.
Would anyone be shocked if Alvarez reached this total by himself? The left-handed slugger has been sensational in the first three games of this series with four HRs and a .500/.538/1.667 slash, and we already mentioned Ryan’s struggles. The fact that you get another player with Alvarez makes this a relatively easy over in a game that will see plenty of runs scored by both teams.
Let’s preface this with the fact that I’ve picked against Arizona in all four postseason games and obviously have not been correct. You’re welcome, Diamondbacks fans, and I’ve been nothing but impressed with what I’ve seen over this first week-plus of playoff baseball.
Having said that, I’m going with Lynn, who showed zero consistency in 2023 but had enough flashes of brilliance to suggest he can start strong in a survival game. The Diamondbacks surely will regress soon, and I’ll bet (again) on that taking place Wednesday.
CC lays out his pitching, lineup choices for NLDS
Philles at Braves, Game 2, 6:07 p.m. ET
Diamondbacks at Dodgers, Game 2, 9:07 p.m. ET
There doesn’t appear to be anything that should prevent either of Monday’s games from being played.
Kyle Wright, Braves RHP, shoulder: Wright’s season was already over after being placed on the 60-day injured list, but multiple outlets have reported that he’s likely to undergo surgery that will cause him to miss the 2024 season. It’s a disappointing development for a pitcher that was so good in 2022 -- 3.19 ERA, 21-5 record -- but now will have essentially two missed seasons.
If Wheeler and Gallen pitch up to their potential, there’s a very good chance they’ll lead their respective teams to 2-0 leads despite playing the first two contests on the road.
Both hurlers have faced their respective opponents multiple times in 2023, with Wheeler posting a 3.32 ERA with a 21/6 K/BB in three starts against Atlanta, while Gallen struggled against the Dodgers with a 9.90 ERA and four homers in two outings and 10 innings. The sample is relatively small, but it’s a easier to have confidence in Wheeler.
Fried was a very effective option when healthy (2.55 ERA, 1.13 WHIP), but he was limited to 14 starts and 77 2/3 innings because of injuries and hasn’t started a game since Sept. 21 because of a blister on his left index finger.
That adds more risk on top of the Phillies having plenty of quality right-handed hitters -- and good lefties, too -- but Fried is worth roster consideration based on his track record. That and the limited options, of course.
Miller is making his first postseason start, which is a little scary, but his success in the second half of the season makes him arguably the most intriguing arm going. Over his last 10 starts, the rookie right-hander has a 3.25 ERA over 61 innings, held hitters to an OPS of .575 and registered a 57/15 K/BB ratio.
There’s no denying the Diamondbacks have looked fantastic so far in the postseason -- a bit weird considering how poor they looked at the end of the regular season -- but Miller makes an awful lot of sense to pair with a pitcher like Wheeler or Fried; whomever you like to win that game.
Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks (Gallen)
So far, I’ve been about as wrong as it gets when picking against the Diamondbacks, but I’ll try one more time. The Dodgers have done a very nice job of bouncing back from losses over the past few postseasons, and they appear to pick the baseball up well against Gallen based on their numbers.
This is a borderline must-win game for LA. It’s not impossible to come back from an 0-2 hole in a five-game series, but it’s awfully hard -- and I’ll (literally) bet on them coming out hot after their absolute disaster of a Game 1 on Saturday.
CC gives you great lineup options for Game 1s
Rangers at Orioles is delayed, but weather shouldn’t be an issue for any of the other three Game 1 options in the LDS Saturday.
Max Scherzer – The Rangers LHP was left off the roster as he hasn’t made enough progress from the shoulder issue that has sidelined the future Hall-of-Famer since the middle of September. The Rangers hope he could be back as an option if the team advances to the ALCS.
John Means – The Orioles LHP was left off the roster as he recovers from soreness in his left elbow. The southpaw pitched well in his four starts after returning from injury this summer, and there’s a very good chance he’ll return if the O’s reach the ALCS.
Gabriel Moreno – The Diamondbacks catcher was hit in the head in the Game 2 win over the Brewers when Brice Turang’s bat swing hit his helmet. The backstop passed concussion protocol, however, and appears to be ready to roll for Game 1. Keep in mind is the late game, so there’s a smidgen of risk keeping Moreno in the lineup.
Strider struck out 281 batters and won 20 games for the best team in baseball but had a 5.60 ERA in five September starts. He did win all four decisions, however, and had 11 strikeouts and gave up three runs in seven innings in his last outing against the Phillies. Long story short, it’s easy to justify Strider in the lineup if you’re feeling it, but there’s more risk than reward.
Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks (Kelly)
Kelly has enjoyed a strong 2023 season, so this is more about belief in the Los Angeles lineup. He did struggle in his last outing against LA, giving up 12 hits and seven runs over five innings. This stack gives fantasy players a mix of big names like Betts and Smith with cheaper options like Rojas and Heyward. It’s easy to imagine the Dodgers getting off to a strong offensive start Saturday, with all due respect to Kelly and the D-Backs staff.
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