Christopher Crawford has written about baseball and football for an amount of time he's uncomfortable disclosing. He can be found on social media @crawford_milb.
The best Fantasy plays for TNF game in Week 5
On paper, this isn’t exactly the most exciting Thursday Night Football game with neither the Commanders nor the Bears likely to be hoisting a trophy at the end of the year, but it’s still football, and there’s enough talent on both sides to call this a game worth watching. They’re all worth watching.
Washington Commanders vs. Chicago Bears
Commanders
Bears
Bears
WR Chase Claypool (Other): OUT
Claypool will not be on the field again, as the Bears have effectively ended their partnership with the talented -- but extremely volatile – wideout (Note: Chicago gave up a high second-round pick to procure Claypool’s services last year for reasons that made little sense at the time and even less now). Outside of that, the Chicago offense is healthy.
(Article continues below video)
The defense can’t say the same. Defensive backs Eddie Jackson (foot) and Jaylon Johnson (hamstring) have been ruled out, and DB Jaquan Brisker (hamstring) is questionable. This is not a very good defense even with those names.
Commanders
RB Chris Rodriguez Jr. (Illness): QUESTIONABLE
Rodriguez missed Sunday’s overtime loss to the Eagles because of illness, but he was able to get practices in and has a good chance to play.. He won’t carry much fantasy relevance, however, playing behind both Brian Robinson Jr. and Antonio Gibson.
Jahan Dotson was limited by an ankle injury during Monday and Tuesday’s practices, but he carries no injury designation coming into Thursday and should be a full-go against the beat up -- and not very good, anyway -- Chicago secondary.
Fields struggled as a passer in the first three games of the season but did have a strong day against the Broncos in a losing cause Sunday, completing 28 of 35 passes (80 percent) with four touchdowns and 335 yards.
More on the NFL:
The Washington secondary has given up 920 passing yards and six touchdowns, which ranks 20th and 21st, respectively. The biggest concern is the Commanders can get to the quarterback and the Bears haven’t been able to protect Fields. But that could lead to scrambling opportunities and a decent rushing day.
Howell has been sacked 24 times -- 14 in the last two weeks. He did bounce back from his four-pick game against the Bills with a solid effort against the undefeated Eagles (29-for-41, 290 yds, 1/0 TD/INT).
Again, the Bears aren’t exactly the Legion of Boom secondary, but with these injuries to the secondary and talented options like McLaurin and Dotson to throw the ball to, this could be a strong game for Howell -- assuming the offensive line can keep him upright.
Kmet hauled in two receiving scores while picking up 85 yards on seven catches against the Broncos, but he’s a risky play Thursday. The Commanders rank third in fantasy points allowed to tight ends, and Kmet only had 11 catches for 104 yards with no scores prior to the Denver game. He’s the best of the options at the position Thursday, but those who don’t need to play a tight end might want to look elsewhere to fill out their rosters.
Roschon Johnson, RB, CHI: $7,200
Johnson disappointed against the Broncos, with only 13 yards on five carries and only one target as a receiver. This is a bet on him being more involved in the passing game Thursday, as he’s a better option in that regard than Hebert, and he’ll likely be a safety valve for Fields against a strong Commanders pass rush.
We saw evidence of what Johnson can do with six catches in the opener against the Packers. It shouldn’t shock anyone if he received a similar level of opportunity in this one.
Dyami Brown, WR, WSH: $4,200
This is a dart throw, but it’s an intriguing one because of the cheaper price point. Brown hauled in two of his three targets for 51 yards against the Eagles, and the Bears’ secondary should allow opportunities.
The issue is McLaurin, Dotson and Curtis Samuel are likely to soak up most of that playing time, but I could see a similar yardage total for Brown as that fourth option. It’s worth a shot if you need to spread out the cash in DFS.
Cairo Santos, K, CHI: $6,900
Yep, a kicker. No team has given up more points to kickers this season than the Commanders. They’ve allowed 12 field goals and 10 extra points over the first four games. Chicago should be able to move the ball between the 20s, but it’s very easy to picture drives stalling out thanks in large part to sacks, and that could lead to some longer field-goal chances for Santos.
If you can use Santos as a flex play, it does make some sense. We promise we’ll do our best to not say nice things about kickers through the rest of the year.
At some point, the Bears will win. It should have been Sunday against Denver except for late gaffes from Fields, the defense and the offensive line. Chicago could beat a mediocre Washington team that has just as many questions as it does answers, if not more. I’m just not willing to bet on it. Not yet anyway.
Commanders 34, Bears 24
Pitching and lineup stacks for Wild Card games
All systems go for all the Game 2s of the 2023 Wild Card series. Should be fun.
Jake McCarthy, Arizona OF – McCarthy was removed from the roster before the start of the series because of an oblique injury. Because of the timing, he can't play in the NLDS if the Diamondbacks’ advance. Jace Peterson has taken McCarthy’s place but isn’t likely to see much playing time.
Luis Arraez, Miami 2B -- Arraez played one game over the final two weeks of the regular season because of an ankle sprain, but he was able to hit leadoff and go 1-for-4 in the Game 1 loss to the Phillies. Assuming he responds well, there’s no reason to think that the NL batting champion won’t be hitting at the top of the lineup again versus Philadelphia on Wednesday.
Gallen vs Peralta is a fun battle, on paper at least. Gallen hasn’t shown much consistency in the second half of the season, but the good has been very good; including two strong starts to end the season against the Yankees and Astros.
Gallen can lead the Diamondbacks to an upset series win if he can outduel Peralta, but the Brewers pitcher has been among the best hurlers since of start of August with a 79/11 K/BB ratio -- 33/1 in September -- over 56.2 innings and just three starts where he’s allowed more than two runs.
With Milwaukee needing the win to stay alive, he’d be the option I’d be rocking with between the two.
Berrios vs. Twins
Berrios makes an awful lot of sense as an option for the Blue Jays to avoid being swept from a second straight Wild Card series. The right-hander will try to beat his former club, and while he did allow four runs in each of his last two starts, he struck out 16 in those outings, with 10 of them coming against the Yankees last Wednesday.
Garrett is the cheapest option on the slate, but I’d be going with Berrios if I’m using any of the cheaper options.
Phillies vs. Marlins (Garrett)
Garrett has been one of the more underrated solid options in 2023, so this has more to do with having trust in the Philadelphia lineup than anything against his ability.
He also has had much more success against left-handers (.600 OPS) than righties (.749), and while that could mean trouble for hitters like Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber, it could means big nights for right-handed bats Realmuto, Bohm and Rojas. Add Miami just doesn’t appear to be ready for the postseason action and I like the Phillies to close this series out.
Rays vs. Rangers (Eovaldi)
Tampa Bay hasn't scored in their last 27 innings of postseason play, with the last run coming on a Jose Siri homer in the sixth inning of Game 1 of last year’s Wild Card game against the Guardians.
They’re due, right? On top of that, this has been one of the best teams in baseball at home all year, Eovaldi just hasn’t looked like a quality option since returning from injury, and the Texas bullpen has been among the worst over the past month.
Chris analyzes the matchups and gives his predictions
The regular season is over, and now we turn our eyes to something that can warm even the coldest of hearts: the MLB playoffs. All four Wild Card series – with best-of-3 formats -- begin Tuesday, and while there are clear favorites, there are always surprises. It’s unlikely 2023 will be an exception.
Minnesota Twins vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Minnesota was unchallenged in the second half of the AL Central, and that has as much to do with how atrocious the division was -- if not more so -- than how well the Twins played.
That said, Minnesota has one of the more intriguing lineups, ranking 10th in runs scored and seventh in slugging percentage despite hitting just .243 over their 162 games.
The calling card is their starting pitching. No team had more quality starts (76), and hurlers like Sonny Gray, Pablo Lopez and Kenta Maeda give the Twins quality and quantity in their rotation. The bullpen has more question marks, but arms like Jhoan Duran, Emilio Pagan and Griffin Jax give them a solid core.
Toronto’s strength is also the starting pitching, which is all the more impressive when you consider the disastrous season that Alek Manoah -- a legitimate Cy Young candidate in 2022 -- “achieved” this summer. Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt and Jose Berrios were all strong options for the Blue Jays in their respective campaigns, and southpaws Yusei Kikuchi and Hyun Jin Ryu gave Toronto solid depth in the backend.
Like Minnesota, the bullpen isn’t as strong as the starting five, but Jordan Romano remains one of the better closers in baseball while set-up arms like Erik Swanson, Yimi Garcia, and Tim Mayza are capable enough to get the ball to Romano in the ninth.
Despite big names in their lineup, the Toronto offense has disappointed. Bo Bichette had a.306/.339/.475 slash line, but Vladimir Guerrero Jr., George Springer, Matt Chapman and Alejandro Kirk didn’t live up to expectations. The talent in the lineup is apparent based on their success in previous seasons, but Toronto was tied for 14th in runs and was carried by their pitching to win the final Wild Card spot.
Prediction: It’s understandable why the Twins are favorites. They have home field advantage, more depth and maybe extra motivation after last year’s quick exit. This should be a good one, but I’ll go Blue Jays in 3.
Few offenses have been better than the Rays’, as they ranked fourth in runs scored (860), on-base percentage (.331) and slugging percentage (.445). Tampa Bay is famous for their platoon splits that frustrate fantasy managers, but Yandy Diaz won the batting title at .330 with a .933 OPS. Randy Arozarena, Isaac Paredes, Josh Lowe and Harold Ramirez -- just to name a few -- all had quality campaigns.
The Rays’ pitching is pretty darn good, too, even with season-ending injuries to pitchers Shane McClanahan and Drew Rasmussen -- arms that would pitch at the top of many rotations. Zack Eflin was one of the best signings of the winter, while Tyler Glasnow returned from injury to strike out 162 hitters over 120 innings.
As usual, the Rays also have one of the best bullpens -- although the team did lose Jason Adam to injury recently -- with hurlers like Pete Fairbanks, Colin Poche and Robert Stephenson leading a deep group.
The Texas Rangers might have the best middle infield in baseball, with Marcus Semien and Corey Seager putting up star performances and more than living up to their lavish contracts. There’s plenty of offensive depth here beyond those stars, with Adolis Garcia mashing 39 homers, Josh Jung enjoying a strong rookie campaign with 23 round-trippers and a solid .781 OPS, and the recent addition of top prospect Evan Carter to the lineup (.306/.413/.645 in 62 at-bats).
The pitching doesn’t compare to the offensive talent, and starters Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer and Jon Gray were injured, but Scherzer and Gray could pitch in the postseason if Texas advances past this round.
Nathan Eovaldi and Jordan Montgomery are no slouches, but the loss of those arms on top of a bullpen that has scuffled mightily over the past month-plus makes this the weakest pitching staff still playing in the American League. If this leads to a pair of 1-0 wins for Texas over the week, I can only apologize.
Prediction: Tampa Bay will get at least two games at home, and no team in the American League was better in their own confines -- 53-28 at Tropicana Field. The Rangers were mediocre on the road (40-41), and the mediocre pitching staff doesn’t inspire confidence. As much as I love the Texas lineup, the home field advantage along with the pitching problems seems too tough to overcome. Rays in 3.
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Milwaukee spent 122 days in first place and played .600 baseball in the second half of the season. The Brew Crew led MLB in ERA (3.71) and batting average against (.226), and ranked second in WHIP (1.19). Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff and Freddy Peralta gives the Brewers as good of a postseason rotation as there is, and Milwaukee can also turn to reliable southpaw Wade Miley if/when they’re able to advance to the NLDS.
Devin Williams is more than capable of closing, with 36 saves and a 1.53 ERA over 61 appearances. Uber-talented rookie Abner Uribe and pen mates Joel Payamps, Bryse Wilson and Hoby Milner give the Brewers a great chance of holding leads.
But can Milwaukee score enough in October? The Brewers ranked 17th in runs scored with a paltry .240 average and .385 slugging percentage, among the worst in the National League. William Contreras and Christian Yelich had strong seasons and there are talented young players like Garrett Mitchell and Sal Frelick in the outfield. Milwaukee will have to pitch its way through the postseason.
The Diamondbacks backed their way into the final playoff spot – losing the final four games of the regular season – but they deserve credit for reaching the postseason just two years after losing 110 games.
It’s a team sport, but Arizona owes much of its success to star rookie outfielder Corbin Carroll and his 25 homers, 54 stolen bases and 5.4 WAR. Arizona has other thumpers as well. Christian Walker had 33 HRs and an .830 OPS, Ketel Marte rebounding from his disappointing 2022 with 25 homers and an .844 OPS and Lourdes Gurriel drove in 82 runs while going deep 24 times in his first year with the D-Backs.
Arizona and Milwaukee match up evenly in terms of the lineup, but pitching is a mismatch. The Diamondbacks will have ace Zac Gallen on regular rest for Game 2 with Merrill Kelly another solid option for Game 3 if necessary, but the rest of the staff leaves a lot to be desired. The deadline addition of Paul Sewald did help solidify the closing role, but the rest of the bullpen has major question marks. There’s a reason Arizona ranked at or near the bottom third in baseball in ERA (4.48), WHIP (1.32) and batting average against (.251).
Prediction: Weird things happen in the postseason, but both NL series seem like mismatches. I can see Gallen perhaps stealing a game for the D-Backs, but the Milwaukee pitching staff is too good to pick against in this one, with all due respect to a very talented young baseball team. Brewers in 2.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins
How they got here: The Phillies never challenged for the division title, but that has more to do with how well Atlanta played than anything Philadelphia “did wrong.” After missing the first month-plus of the season, Bryce Harper was excellent with a .900 OPS while adding 21 homers despite getting just 457 at-bats.
The Phillies have the most complete lineup on the National League side of the Wild Card series. The pitching isn’t bad, either, but does offer a few more question marks.
Zack Wheeler had another solid campaign, and Taijuan Walker, Ranger Suarez and Cristopher Sanchez were good enough, even with Aaron Nola having his worst season. The bullpen also is in better shape for October, with the return of Jose Alvarado from injury providing a major boon, and a bounceback season from Craig Kimbrel helping solidify the final innings.
No one projected the Marlins to be a postseason team, and while there’s no denying Miami took advantage of the lack of competitors outside of the “big four” along with some luck, it’s still a fun story.
The Fish went 31-11 in one-run games despite a bullpen ERA of 4.37 that ranked 11th in the National League, but there is talent in the relief corps with arms like Tanner Scott, AJ Puk and deadline-add David Robertson capable of getting the job done.
It’s the starting pitching, however, that gives Miami a shot. Jesus Luzardo and Braxton Garrett showed why they were once considered top prospects, and while Eury Perez struggled to end the year, the 20-year-old also showed immense promise with an arsenal that can give hitters fits in October.
The Marlins ranked fourth in batting average, but that figure is carried by Luis Arraez, who hit .354 after joining Miami in an offseason deal with the Twins. Jake Burger also has been excellent after being acquired in a deadline deal with the White Sox, and Josh Bell was solid in his time with the Marlins after basically being sold to Miami from Cleveland.
All that said, this is easily the worst lineup that will be playing in October, as the Marlins ranked 26th in runs scored this season with just 668.
Prediction: Again, weird things happen in October, but on paper, this is a mismatch. Not only are the Phillies the better roster, but they’re also a team that has postseason experience that reached the World Series just last year. It’s impossible for me to say anything but Phillies in 2, but crazier things have happened.
Great stack options for your Saturday lineups
Friday’s game between the Phillies and Mets was rained out, and while they’re scheduled to play a doubleheader Saturday, there’s a chance of precipitation throughout the day. There’s also a decent probability of rain occurring during the Angels-Athletics games, so fantasy managers will want to make sure before including anyone in those contests in their respective lineups.
Nico Hoerner -- Knee: Hoerner fouled a ball off his left knee during Friday’s extra-inning loss to the Brewers, and he was diagnosed with a contusion. Testing revealed that there were no fractures, so there’s at least a chance that Hoerner can be back in the lineup for a must-win game against the Brew Crew on Saturday.
Jorge Polanco -- Ankle: Polanco tweaked his right ankle while striking out in the fourth inning against the Rockies. It is the same ankle that the infielder has had multiple surgeries on, but it does sound like his exit was more precautionary than due to serious injury. It is worth pointing out that Minnesota is locked into their playoff positioning, however, so they won’t have any reason to rush Polanco back.
As is usually the case when he’s available, Strider is the most expensive option in the main slate, and it’s easy to understand why with 274 strikeouts and 19 wins in an excellent 2023 season. It is worth pointing out, however, that Strider has not been the same pitcher as he was earlier in the season in September with a 5.64 ERA, and he struggled against the Nationals with four earned runs and “only” four strikeouts on Sunday. The upside beats any arm going -- and there’s some good ones -- but there’s a little more risk involved here than you might think.
Joe Boyle @ LAA: $7,800
It’s not easy for a 6-foot-7, 240-pounder to be sneaky, but Boyle qualifies in this case as one of the lower-priced options for Saturday’s slate. The former Cincinnati prospect has not allowed an earned run in his first two outings over nine innings since receiving his call-up, and he’s whiffed nine in that timeframe against three free passes. He’ll get a chance to take on a Los Angeles lineup that is ever-so-beatable, and while he’ll be playing behind one of the worst teams in baseball -- that’s quite the understatement -- he still has a chance for fantasy success even without a victory.
Twins @ Rockies (Undecided)
We always remind you to check lineups before you submit your lineup, but in games like this where neither team has anything to play for in terms of gain in standings, this is especially true. Having said that, basically just add as many Minnesota hitters as possible against Colorado and whomever they start. You only get two more chances to do this. Take advantage of it. It truly doesn’t matter who Colorado decides to throw. Just do it. You’ll be rewarded in the end.
Yankees @ Royals (Steven Cruz)
The Royals will go with a bullpen day against the Yankees on Saturday with Cruz likely going the first couple of innings before turning things over to one of the worst groups of relievers in baseball. You can add a superstar like Judge to the mix while gaining some (relatively) cheap other options that have a great chance for success in Kansas City. Again, make sure these guys actually play in the penultimate game, but whatever hitters get a chance to hit against Cruz and the KC bullpen are solid fantasy options. Sometimes it’s not that simple. Today is not one of those days.
CC breaks down top MLB PrizePicks and Underdog
It's the final Friday of the regular season, and one of your final chances to take advantage of a full slate of games. Here’s some over/unders to take a look at for Friday’s MLB action.
Means is not a strikeout artist, but he’s been an effective option since rejoining the Baltimore rotation with a 2.60 ERA over those three starts. He’ll also be facing a Boston lineup that offers plenty of chances for swing-and-miss, and Means is likely to work relatively deep as Baltimore is trying to keep his arm strength up. If this was a high total like seven or eight punchouts we’d probably pass, but needing only five strikeouts to hit the over makes this the play.
You could make a compelling argument for both sides of this over/under, and generally that means this is an option that you should stay away from. I’m feeling a little risky on this final Friday of the regular season and will bet on Waldichuk regressing even against a poor Angels’ lineup. The southpaw has gone six innings in three of his last four starts and has a solid ERA of 3.22 in four September chances, but this is still more of a long-term play than one you should be trusting in daily fantasy games. Asking for six innings from Waldichuk in an over/under is too risky a proposition, even against a less-than-spectacular Los Angeles group.
The Cubs were swept by Atlanta this week, but little -- if any -- of that had to do with the play of Bellinger, as he went 6-for-13 in that series in what can only be described as a remarkable turnaround from the struggles he had for the overwhelming majority of the 2022 season. He’ll go up against Colin Rea and the Milwaukee bullpen on Friday in games that mean absolutely nothing to the Brewers and are must-win games for the Cubs if they are to play past the final regular season weekend. Don’t be surprised if Bellinger has a few massive games to try and help Chicago play postseason baseball.
Crawford has somewhat quietly put together an excellent season for the Mariners, and he came up huge for Seattle with a two-run double in the bottom of the ninth to give the M’s a 3-2 victory. He’ll be leading off Friday against Nathan Eovaldi, and the shortstop will look to continue a good run while hitting in front of star outfielder Julio Rodriguez. It’s pretty easy to picture Crawford picking up a couple of knocks in another must-win game for Seattle, and the fact that he’ll hit at the top with Rodriguez and power-hitting backstop Cal Raleigh behind him eans run opportunities are readily apparent as well.
Let’s end the final Friday of the regular season with a fun one featuring a former MVP in Judge and a player that has a great chance to win one in the future in Witt Jr. (not that Judge can’t win another one, either, obviously). Judge will get a chance to square off against one of the worst starters in baseball in Jordan Lyles, while Witt Jr. will take on a lefty in Carlos Rodon. Against left-handers this year the shortstop is hitting .297 with an OPS of .858, so it’s safe to say that both hitters have an opportunity to do a lot of damage Friday in Kansas City. It’s a high total, but it’s always a good idea to bet on talents like Judge and Witt Jr.
CC details his PrizePicks and Underdog choices
It’s the final Wednesday of the regular season, and one of your final chances to take advantage of a full slate of games. Here’s some over/unders to take a look.
This is a little risky, but with risk comes opportunity. Glasnow has pitched ineffectively over his last three starts and has a 5.72 ERA in September in five outings. He’s also registered a 39/9 K/BB over that time, and the last time he faced Boston, he threw six innings of one-run baseball while adding 14 strikeouts for good measure. Glasnow is a good bet to bounce back based on his track record, and the Red Sox lineup offers plenty of chances to miss bats.
Tatis Jr. has had a disappointing fantasy season in 2023 -- if only because expectations are so high for one of the most talented players in the sport -- but there have been enough flashes of brilliance to believe in him when the right matchup comes along. That matchup could come Wednesday against a Giants team that was officially eliminated from the postseason on Tuesday against a hurler in Sean Manaea that is likely due for some regression. A combo meal (homer and stolen base) is well within reach, and the fact that Tatis hasn’t gone deep September 15 suggests he’s due for a round-tripper sooner than later.
Even after picking up hits in his last two games, Kirk has really struggled over the month of September. He’s hit just .213 with a paltry OPS of .696, and he’s slashed just .240/.324/.341 against right-handers during his 2023 campaign. Add in the fact that he’ll be facing off against Gerrit Cole -- the presumed 2023 Cy Young winner based on his body of work thus far -- and it’s hard to justify betting on Kirk picking up a pair of bases on Wednesday, with all due respect to the backstop.
Miller has had a strong rookie campaign; making the jump from Double-A and helping stabilize the Mariners’ rotation after the season-ending injuries to Robbie Ray and Marco Gonzales. He also is a pitcher that hasn’t gone over this total often in 2023, with six of his last nine starts seeing him throw fewer than 90 pitches, including his last two. Some of that has to do with efficiency (5.1 scoreless innings against the Dodgers on September 16), and some of it because of some struggles (six runs in 4.1 frames in his last outing) that you see from rookie hurlers. Either way, it’s a good bet that Miller will be out of the game before he reaches the 90-pitch total against Houston Wednesday.
It’d be nice if this included walks because then it’d be a more obvious play; Julien has drawn seven walks over his last four games but hasn’t picked up a hit since last Wednesday. Considering how good he’s been in 2023 (.821 OPS, 14 homers in 105 games in his rookie campaign), it’s a good bet that the 24-year-old will start to see the hits dropping soon, and the fact he’s going up against the worst team in baseball in the A’s doesn’t hurt for this one, either. I’ll miss picking over/unders against the Athletics in 2023. Pretty good chance they’ll be a team to pick against in 2024, as well. Sorry, Oakland fans.
CC breaks down lineup construction options
Fantasy players will need to keep a close eye on Arizona-New York as there is a good chance of rain throughout that game, and there’s also a possibility of rain in Giants-Padres; although that one looks like it should be able to be played.
Wilmer Flores, Giants 1B, knee: Flores left Sunday’s loss to the Dodgers with right knee discomfort. The veteran infielder went 2 for 2 before exiting, and is considered day-to-day. There’s a strong chance he’ll be out of the lineup for Monday’s game against San Diego.
Michael Brantley, Astros DH, shoulder: Brantley has not been able to play since September 17 because of soreness in his shoulder, and there’s no guarantee he’ll be back in the lineup for Monday’s massive game against the Mariners in Seattle.
Ketel Marte, Diamondbacks 2B, illness: Marte was scratched late from Sunday’s game due to being under the weather. If Marte can’t go Monday, Jordan Lawlar will likely be the starting shortstop with Geraldo Perdomo at second base.
For a slate that only features three games, there’s some awfully good starting pitching options. It starts with Snell, the presumed National League Cy Young favorite who is coming off seven no-hit innings against Colorado with 10 strikeouts. He’s allowed just one hit over his last two starts, and only two total runs in the month of September over 25 innings (0.72 ERA) with a 34/12 K/BB ratio.
Simply put, Snell is pitching as well -- if not better -- than anyone in baseball, and it’s hard to argue against using him against a mediocre San Francisco lineup.
The Verlander-Castillo matchup is a fascinating one, as it pits two pitchers that have been among the best in the sport over the last few years, but also features two teams that have played less-than-spectacular baseball over the last few weeks.
In fact, the Astros were swept by the lowly Royals over the weekend, while Seattle saw its struggles against Texas continue with their own three-game demise.
It also features two pitchers that have seen opposite levels of success as of late, as Verlander has a 5.19 ERA in his four starts in September, while Castillo has registered a solid -- if unspectacular -- 3.38 mark. The latter also hasn’t picked up a loss since July 14, and he makes a little more sense as a DFS option than Verlander at this point.
Gray vs. Sandoval offers the “cheap” entry points for Monday’s action, and it’s not hard to understand why. Gray hasn’t gone more than four innings in a start since he threw five middling frames against the Twins, and his ERA in the month of September -- small-sampled though it may be -- is an unhealthy 8.56.
Sandoval is actually coming off a solid outing against the Rays on Tuesday where he spun five innings of two-run baseball, but he had allowed a combined 15 runs in his two starts before that. He’s the kind hurler who is more likely to give you a chance for a win, but the fact he plays for one of the worst teams in baseball over the last month-plus makes it not worth the risk.
There are no sneaky options. It’s very hard to sneak up on anyone when there’s only three games in the main slate.
The only real question for me if you’re going to do a stack is whether to use it against the Angels or Rangers. The other starting pitching options are just too good for me to feel confident basing my DFS lineup on.
I’ll go with the Angels and the cheapness of these three against a pitcher in Gray who just hasn’t been very good for a while now, and it allows me to add some star plates like Juan Soto, Marcus Semien and two quality pitchers in Castillo and Webb. Certainly, some risk but the risk comes with plenty of reward.
CC breaks down PrizePicks and Underdog
The penultimate weekend of the regular season is here, and there are plenty of intriguing picks to make on a full Friday slate of MLB action.
We’ll try to build off the nice 4-for-5 day we had Wednesday by going with one that’s a pretty easy selection on paper. Yes, the Rockies are one of the worst teams in baseball, and yes, Taillon had a strong start two outings ago against the Diamondbacks. He also has struggled for much of the year and allowed five runs -- three earned -- against Colorado on September 13 and was pushed back. This would be an even easier call if it was in Colorado instead of Chicago, but either way, Taillon is not a reliable option.
Devers went hitless in his past two games but has a slash of .333/.446/.594 in September. He’ll face White Sox pitcher Touki Toussaint, who’s shown flashes but hasn’t been effective in back-to-back starts. Considering he gave up just one run over five innings against the Twins in his last outing, it’s likely Toussaint struggles, and it shouldn’t shock anyone if Devers reaches this total with ease.
Burnes faces the Marlins, who can be difficult to generate swings and misses against – they’re fourth best in strikeouts. But it’s difficult to bet against this total with Burnes, as the former Cy Young winner has struck out seven or more batters in four straight starts and five of his last six outings even while having mixed results in other categories. He should be able to generate just enough punch outs to cash this ticket.
Paredes had two hits and three RBI in the final two games of the series against the Angels. He’s quietly put together an excellent campaign with 29 homers and an .845 OPS, but his last HR was against the Mariners on September 8. There’s no guarantee that changes Friday, but Chris Bassitt has allowed 27 homers this season in his 31 starts.
Might as well go with another over. Rutschman and the Orioles will be squaring off against Shane Bieber, who’s making his first start since the All-Star break. There are questions as to how deep he’ll be able to work in this contest. Ramirez will get Dean Kremer and hit from the left-side, and southpaw hitters have registered an .814 OPS against the right-hander in 2023.
Being honest with our fine readers, I’ve missed on the last three combo totals, and I’m due to get one right. Right?
.svg){kind=icon}
.svg){kind=icon}