Christopher Crawford

Weather Report

‍There’s some hot weather on tap for this holiday slate, but no games look to be in danger of being rained out.

Injury Report

Luis Robert (quad) -- Robert was scratched from the lineup the last two games because of cramping in his right quadricep. The outfielder is day-to-day, but with a day game upcoming, there’s a very good chance he won’t be in the lineup against the Royals on Monday.

Christian Walker (elbow) - Walker is dealing with an elbow contusion, but he came off the bench Sunday and hit a homer in the Diamondbacks’ loss to Baltimore. There’s a good chance he’ll start against Colorado on Monday, but fantasy GMs will want to make absolutely sure before adding him.

Yordan Alvarez (knee) -- Alvarez was able to stay in the game against the Yankees on Sunday, but Astros manager Dusty Baker told reporters the slugger did bang his knee after he tripped while attempting to make a play in left field. That he was able to stay in the game is a good sign, but Houston will take caution with Alvarez to begin a massive three-game series against the Rangers.

Top Priced Starting Pitchers (DraftKings)

‍Justin Steele vs. SF: $10,000
Aaron Civale vs. TB: $9,700
Logan Webb vs. CHC: $9,500
Merrill Kelly vs. COL: $9300
Jose Berrios vs. OAK: $8800
J.P. France vs. TEX: $8400
Bryan Woo vs. CIN: $8000
Brayan Bello vs. TB: $7800

It’s not the deepest group of starting options, but there are some solid names. Steele is the priciest, and he’s somewhat quietly ranked second in all of baseball in wins (15) and ERA (2.69). The southpaw is coming off six innings of shutout baseball against the Brewers on Tuesday, and while the price is high, it’s certainly reasonable to expect solid numbers from the 28-year-old against a mediocre San Francisco lineup.

Berrios’ matchup against the A’s looks awfully good on paper, but this is one fantasy MS might want to take a closer look at before making the decision to place him in the lineup. After pitching well in the first half of the 2023 campaign, the right-hander has given up five runs in back-to-back starts with an ERA of 5.53 with only 23 strikeouts in 27.2 innings of work. The A’s, meanwhile, are coming off a sweep against the Angels to improve to a pathetic 42-95 record, but they’ve been playing much better as of late thanks to help from hitters like Zack Gelof. This isn’t the slam dunk on paper that you might believe.

Bellohas shown flashes of brilliance in his first full season with Boston, but there hasn’t been a ton of consistency, which is to be expected from a 24-year-old pitching in the AL East. He was shaky in his last outing against the Astros while not getting out of the fifth inning, but he only allowed one run in each of his two starts before that. He had a 3.34 ERA in six starts in August. The Rays are a tricky option and Bello doesn’t miss many bats, but you can justify him as your second starter because of his ability to initiate ground balls.

‍Sneaky option
Cole Ragans vs. CHW: $7,200

This one almost seems too easy. Ragans has been fantastic since joining the Kansas City rotation, and the southpaw has a fantastic 53/9 K/BB ratio over his last six starts. The left-hander will face a White Sox lineup that is probably going to be missing Robert, and even if the talented centerfielder returns to action, the rest of the lineup leaves a lot to be desired. Expect a lot of DFS players to be using Ragans so this isn’t as sneaky as you might think, but it’s impossible to not recommend Ragans at this price. Too easy.

‍Stack Attack

Mariners vs. Reds (Tejay Antone)

C Cal Raleigh $4,700
3B Eugenio Suarez $4,600
OF Julio Rodriguez $6400
OF Tesocar Hernandez $4600

Rodriguez and Hernandez were outstanding in August and have helped Seattle take a lead in the American League West into September for the first time in 20 years. Raleigh has also been excellent with the power, and getting to play in Great American Ballpark gives all four of these players a chance to go yard. Add in the fact that the Reds are going with a bullpen game, and it makes a ton of sense to load up on Seattle options for the first game of this three-game set.

Diamondbacks vs. Rockies (Peter Lambert)
‍1BChristian Walker $4,500
2B Ketel Marte $4,900
OF Corbin Carroll $5500
OF Tommy Pham $3500

Managers will want to make sure both Pham and Walker do return to the lineup, as we discussed the Walker injury and Pham is day-to-day with a finger injury. Either way, this is a matchup to exploit with the D-Backs taking on a mediocre-- at best -- starting option in Lambert. Carroll is always a good bet for a combo meal (homer and stolen base) and Marte has enjoyed a strong bounceback season from his disappointing 2022 campaign. Get as many Diamondback options into your lineup as you can for the main slate.

‍

Weather Report:

Even with a full slate, it doesn’t look likely that there will be any games that are impacted by the weather.

‍

‍Injury Report:‍

Jose Altuve - leg -- Altuve left Friday’s loss to the Yankees after fouling a ball off his leg. The injury does not appear to be serious, but there’s a chance he won’t return to the lineup for the Astros on Saturday. He’s considered day-to-day.

Danny Jansen - finger -- Jansen exited against the Rockies on Friday with what has been diagnosed as a fractured finger. The backstop is assuredly heading to the injured list before Saturday’s contest against Colorado, and Alejandro Kirk should see the majority of reps behind the plate for Toronto for the rest of the 2023 campaign.

‍

‍Top Priced Starting Pitchers (DraftKings)

Blake Snell vs. SF: $11,300
Luis Castillo vs. NYM: $11,100
Aaron Nola vs. MIL: $10,600
Jordan Montgomery vs. MIN: $9,900
Kyle Bradish vs. ARI: $9,400
Hunter Brown vs. NYY: $8,800
Kyle Harrison vs. SD: $8,500
Bryce Elder vs. LAD: $8,300
Mike Clevinger vs. DET: $8,000
Tanner Houck vs. KC: $7,700

Plenty of aces will take the bump Saturday, and Snell is unsurprisingly the top-priced option for the slate. The veteran southpaw is coming off an outing where he fired seven scoreless innings with nine strikeouts -- albeit with five walks as well -- and he registered an ERA of 3.00 thus far in August with a 37/17 K/BB ratio over five starts while picking up three wins. It’s an expensive play and one you’ll likely see plenty of managers play, but it’s not hard to justify against a mediocre San Francisco lineup.

Castillo has also been outstanding as of late, and he’s gone at least seven innings in his last three starts with the last two seeing him giving up just one run with a 15/1 K/BB. It’s worth pointing out that those starts came against the lowly White Sox and Royals, but he gets another friendly matchup with the Mets -- a team that is no longer in playoff contention and which has scored no more than three runs in eight of its last nine games.

Those who get a chance to watch Padres-Giants will see two talented lefties on the bump. Snell will be taking on Harrison, who is coming off a sensational outing against the Reds where he struck out 11 and allowed three hits over 6.1 scoreless frames. The left-hander has battled command issues in the minors and has issued three free passes in 9.2 innings at the highest level, but the 16 strikeouts in that timeframe tell you just how good Harrison’s stuff is. There’s plenty of risk and plenty of reward in Harrison’s arm, and the Padres are not the threat that many thought they would be to begin 2023.

‍

‍Sneaky option‍

Slade Cecconi vs. Bal: $6,000‍

It’s tough to recommend non-aces against Baltimore, but there’s good value with Cecconi for those who want to take a risk. The 24-year-old has not allowed more than two earned runs in any outing since joining the Arizona staff at the start of August. He’s coming off a strong outing against the Reds, where he allowed just one earned run over 5.2 quality frames. That low salary allows players to target some of the bigger name bats, and there’s reason to believe he can be successful, even against the quality Baltimore lineup.

‍

Stack Attack

Pirates vs. Cardinals (Drew Rom)

1B Connor Joe $3,500
3B Ke’Bryan Hayes $4,400
SS Alika Williams $2,100
OF Andrew McCutchen $4000‍

Rom offers long-term potential after being acquired by the Cardinals in the deal for Jack Flaherty, but he’s allowed 13 hits in nine innings, and the Pirates scored eight runs (six earned) when they faced the southpaw two outings again. All of the options above are on the less-expensive side of things and have a chance to pick up some knocks against a left-hander on the bump. You can stack these four and still target some of the major stars playing during the full slate.

‍

‍Blue Jays vs. Rockies (Ty  Blach)

1B Vlad Guerrero Jr. $5500
2B Whit Merrifield $4900
3B Ernie Clement $2600
OF George Springer $5100

It’s lazy, but whenever you get a chance to stack a decent lineup in Colorado, you should do it. The Blue Jays offense -- which has been disappointing in 2023 -- scored 13 runs in their game Friday against Colorado. Blach has been effective in three of his last four starts, he’s a veteran journeyman due for regression, particularly when pitching in the unfriendly confines of Coors Field. Don’t be surprised if a couple of these hitters take Blach deep, and Springer and Merrifield offer the potential for a combo meal (homer plus stolen base).

Friday offers your usual smorgasbord of quality and quantity, with elite matchups like Atlanta taking on the Dodgers highlighting the evening but also intriguing offerings like Mets-Mariners, Orioles-Diamondbacks and Yankees-Astros.

Here are tonight’s Underdog and Prizepicks plays for Friday’s MLB slate.‍‍

‍Justin Verlander: 6.5 strikeouts -Higher (Underdog)‍

Houston's Verlander will be facing a Yankees’ lineup that has struggled throughout the year, and now will have a handful of rookies lined up Friday. In his last two starts, the future Hall of Famer has struck out 16 while not allowing a run. So, while this is a higher number for a hurler who no longer has elite swing-and-miss stuff, the opportunity is readily apparent here for Verlander to pile up the strikeouts in the worst New York lineup in a long time.

‍Corey Seager: 1.5 Total Bases - Higher (Prizepicks)

‍Seager was excellent in August with a slash of .337/.417/.704 with 10 homers in what has quietly been one of his best offensive seasons even with injuries that have limited the left-handed hitting shortstop to 90 games as of Friday. He’ll go up against Joe Ryan, a talented hurler but who has allowed 26 homers in 131 innings with left-handed hitters posting an .818 OPS against him. As long as Seager is healthy, he’s a great bet in daily games to hit the over in on-base totals.

‍Cole Irvin: 2.5 runs - Over (Underdog)

‍Irvin has pitched well for most of August with a 2.25 ERA, but he’s been inconsistent, allowing four runs against the Rockies on Friday over six innings. The Diamondbacks offense has scored just one run over the last two games, but it’s a solid lineup with talented hitters who are due for some positive regression in the coming games. It just doesn’t seem like there’s enough upside to bet on a pitcher like Irvin in a game like this to hold a lineup to under three runs.

‍Bryce Harper + Christian Yelich: 3.5 Hits + Runs + RBI combo - Over (Prizepicks)

‍This is a fun one. Both Yelich and Harper have been swinging the bat well, but the challenge here is the pitchers they’ll be facing. Harper will go up against Freddy Peralta, while Yelich will swing the bat against Zack Wheeler. Those are two of the better pitchers in the National League --if not all of baseball -- but because of the way both Harper and Yelich are playing, it seems reasonable to expect at least one of those former MVPs to have a big game Friday.

‍Pete Alonso: 8.0 fantasy points - Lower(Underdog)

‍The man they call Polar Bear is always a threat to hit a round tripper or two, but Alonso will be facing off against Logan Gilbert, a pitcher who has been excellent in the second half of the season. And while the first baseman does have 39 homers in 2023, he’s also had significant contact issues. He’s struck out multiple times in five of his last seven games and 119 times in 459 at-bats. Add in the fact that Alonso doesn’t have many quality options to drive in and it’s hard to see him reaching that point total unless he goes deep.

It’s another full slate of games Wednesday, and there are more than a handful of interesting options to gander over. Colorado-Atlanta provides some intriguing value, but a ‘lesser’ game like Kansas City taking on Pittsburgh also offers intrigue.

Here are tonight’s Underdog and Prizepicks plays for Wednesday’s MLB slate.

Bobby Witt Jr. 1.5 Total Bases - Higher (Underdog)‍

It’d be hard to overstate just how good the Royals' infielder has been in August, as the young star has hit.327/.379/.626 with eight homers while stealing nine bags and driving in 21 runs even for a weak team. On Wednesday, he’ll go up against the Pirates' Andre Jackson; who pitched decently over his last two starts but offers plenty of opportunity with less-than-spectacular stuff. Don’t be surprised if Witt Jr. offers a combo meal with a homer and a steal, and he’s a good bet to reach the over on that 1.5 total.

Nolan Jones : 1.5 Total Bases - Higher (Prizepicks)

Somewhat quietly, Jones has been one of the better rookies in baseball, coming into Wednesday with a slash of .271/.353/.488. He’ll get a chance to place in the friendly confines of Coors Field, and the former Cleveland prospect will also get a chance to face a right-hander who is making his MLB debut in Darius Vines. Jones is hitless in his last three games, and while that makes things a little more nerve-wracking, it also means he’s due for a big game.

Matt Olson: 0.5 RBI - More (Prizepicks)

Olson will be going up against a lefty in Kyle Freeland, and while he is statistically worse against southpaws than he is righties, worse is a subjective term considering he’s posted an .891 OPS with nine homers and 27 RBI over his 125 plate appearances. Add in the fact he’ll be playing in the friendly confines of Coors Field with some elite hitters hitting in front of him, and Olson is as good of a bet for an RBI as any player Wednesday.

Dane Dunning: 4.0 strikeouts - Higher (Underdog)

Dunning has been able to miss bats at much higher rate as of late, with 39 strikeouts over 29.2 innings of work in his five starts thus far in August. The Mets certainly offer a chance for missed bats, and are not exactly in striking distance for a playoff spot. Dunning should be able to hit his mark as long as he can throw enough strikes to do so; something he admittedly struggled with Friday against the Twins.

Brandon Pfaadt : 4.5 Strikeouts - Lower (Underdog)

There’s reason for long-term upside with Pfaadt, as he was one of the best minor-league hurlers in baseball in 2022, and there have been some flashes of brilliance in 2023 despite his ugly 5.91 ERA and 1.36 WHIP over 67 innings during his rookie campaign. Asking him to reach this total is asking him to work deep against the Dodgers, a lineup that is as feared as any in all of baseball. There’s just too much risk on betting overs with Pfaadt against this kind of team.

‍