Christopher Crawford has written about baseball and football for an amount of time he's uncomfortable disclosing. He can be found on social media @crawford_milb.
Best fantasy plays and prediction for Giants-49ers
We’ve had two consecutive entertaining Thursday Night Football games with the Chiefs/Lions and Vikings/Eagles coming down to the wire. Can we make it three in a row? The odds are stacked against this one, but weirder things have happened.
San Francisco 49ers vs. New York Giants
49ers
Lions
Giants
Without question, the biggest injury storyline in this game is the absence of Barkley after the star running back sprained his ankle late in the win over the Cardinals. The 26-year-old is a big loss in the running game but also has already received 11 targets as a checkdown for Daniel Jones.
It appears Matt Breida will be the first option for New York on Thursday with Breida going up against the team that gave him his first chance, but it seems likely the Giants will use RB-by-committee approach to replace Barkley with Gary Brightwell and potentially rookie Eric Gray.
Robinson has missed the first two games recovering from a torn ACL he suffered in 2022, but multiple outlets are reporting that the second-year player will play tonight. He had 227 yards on 23 receptions prior to the injury and should be involved in the passing attack if he plays.
49ers
The only fantasy-relevant injury question mark for the 49ers is Aiyuk, but it’s a big one. The wideout is going to be a game-time decision due to a shoulder surgery he suffered in the win over the Rams. He played through the injury but was a non-participant in Monday’s practice and a limited one Tuesday.
Even if Aiyuk is active he may not be in for his usual line of targets -- he played 52 percent of the offensive snaps in Sunday’s victory -- and there are options that might make sense to play over him that we’ll offer later. This is called a tease, in the industry.
Usually, a quarterback is the most expensive play on a Thursday, but it’s not surprising McCaffrey is the priciest. He’s gone over 100 yards and scored a touchdown in each of the first two games, and the Giants have allowed 136.5 yards per game on the ground -- seventh worst in the NFL. Even with teams looking to stack the box against McCaffrey, it’s beyond reasonable to expect a big game anytime he’s on the field.
Jones vs. Purdy is an intriguing quarterback matchup because of their difference in style and pedigree. Jones has helped fantasy players more with his legs than as a passer (102 yards rushing with a TD, 425 yards passing 2/3 TD/INT) after receiving a massive extension in the offseason.
Purdy has completed 66.7 percent of his passes with a pair of scores a year after being the last selection of the 2022 draft and helping San Francisco reach the NFC Championship Game in his rookie season.
Jones offers the higher ceiling because of his ability to scramble, but Purdy has the higher floor because he doesn’t make mistakes and offers more weapons to get the ball to -- even if Aiyuk is unable to play.
This game also features two of the better tight end options in Waller and Kittle, but both are still looking for their first TDs. Kittle has received just nine targets and has yet to go over 30 yards.
Waller was a big part of the offense in the come-from-behind win over Arizona Sunday, however, with six receptions for 76 yards.
Both players are due for some scores -- particularly Kittle who picked up 11 touchdowns last season -- and it would be far from an upset if both players found paydirt Thursday.
Jalin Hyatt, WR, NYG: $7,800
The third-round draft pick in April received only two targets against the Cardinals, but they went for 89 yards, including a 58-yarder to open the second half. The 6-foot, 195-pound wideout was drafted out of Tennessee in large part due to his big-play ability, and while there are some names ahead of him on the depth chart, it does seem likely he will be more involved with the offense going forward. A breakout game could be on the horizon.
Jauan Jennings, WR, SF: $6,600
Jennings’ value is at least partially tied into how much Aiyuk plays, if at all. After being held catchless against the Steelers, Jennings hauled in two passes for 51 yards against the Rams.
The 6-foot-3 Jennings offers a big target for Purdy and has had success when given a chance to play, and this is a friendly price point. If you’re feeling adventurous and Aiyuk doesn’t suit up, ponder Ronnie Bell. The seventh-round selection, who showed promise in the preseason, might be the third wideout in sets while offering just a $300 price point.
Eric Gray, RB, NYG: $2,100
Gray has yet to receive a carry or a target so far, so this is obviously a dart throw. The fifth-round pick out of Oklahoma in April has been doing punt returns. With Barkley out of commission and Breida along with Brightwell not exactly looking like stars in the backfield, it would make sense if New York gave Gray a look. At this price, the risk is worth it.
On paper, this seems like a mismatch. The 49ers are one of the NFL’s best team, while the Giants got boat-raced by the Cowboys and needed an epic comeback to beat the lowly Cardinals.
The NYG will be without one of the NFL’s most electric playmakers in Barkley, and they’ll be facing the 49ers in SF’s home opener. A double-digit point spread is always scary in this sport and Thursday night games are often an adventure, but it’s impossible to pick against the favorite in this one.
49ers 27, Giants 17
CC gives you the best PrizePicks and Underdog options
We’re getting closer and closer to the postseason with just less than two weeks to go in the regular campaign, but there are some fun over/unders to hit with a strong slate available Wednesday.
Since returning from injury August 20, Greene has only gone over seven strikeouts once -- a nine-punchout game against the Cardinals on September 10. That said, this right-hander has fanned a whopping 129 hitters in just 97 innings and possesses some of the best swing-and-miss stuff in baseball. He’s also going to face a lineup that strikes out with the best of them -- or worst of them? -- and will be without Carlos Correa and Royce Lewis. I like Greene to have a strong outing that sees him show off that ability to miss bats again.
The caveat here is you’ll want to make sure Raleigh is in the lineup on a getaway day in the afternoon before making this bet. Assuming he is either behind the plate or lined up as the DH, he makes sense as a play as a middle-of-the-order option that will be squaring off against Joey Estes and the lowly Athletics. It wouldn’t be a shock if Raleigh hit this total with an early two-run homer, but either way, he’s a good bet to be a fantasy contributor as Seattle looks for the sweep and to stay in the hunt for the American League West title.
Miller has pitched decently in his last few starts and shown the ability to miss bats, and he’ll be facing off against a Detroit lineup that doesn’t exactly strike a lot of fear into the hearts of pitchers. So, while it makes sense for the rookie right-hander to be a usable option, he’s held a lineup under two runs once in his last four starts, and he’s posted a 4.12 ERA thus far in September. That’s not an abhorrent number, and again, picking against Miller has far less to do with the ability he can pitch well, and more to do with the fact that holding a lineup to under two runs is hard. Baseball is hard.
In the month of September, Henderson has hit .305/.314/.612 with five homers and 15 RBI. In his last eight starts for the Astros, Javier has given up 10 round-trippers while registering a 5.87 ERA over 38.1 innings of work that has seen his ERA balloon up to 4.74. Do I need to say anymore? I don’t think I need to say anymore. There are several quality Baltimore options to think about using in both DFS and in this type of format, but ride the hot hand of Henderson if you can only choose one.
It’d be understandable if you went in the opposite direction on this one if only because the Los Angeles lineup is not a whole heck of a lot of fun to watch right now. That said, Civale has not pitched six innings since August 16, and that’s the only time he’s hit the over on this total as a member of the Tampa Bay rotation. Even if Civale is efficient -- something he hasn’t been terribly often in 2023 even while putting up solid numbers -- there’s a good chance he’s only going to be on the mound for five innings before giving way to the excellent Rays’ bullpen.
Great choices for constructing your Monday lineup stacks
Weather Report
It’s a busier-than-usual Monday with 11 games, but it doesn’t appear any of are in danger of getting postponed with very little chance of rain.
Injury Report:
Salvador Perez, Royals C, Concussion -- Perez was placed on the seven-day injured list Sunday after being hit in the mask by a foul ball Saturday against the Astros. The Royals are also missing Freddy Fermin for the rest of the season due to a finger injury, so Kansas City will line up Logan Porter and Tyler Cropley behind the plate for the foreseeable future. Neither Porter nor Cropley offer any type of fantasy value.
Ha-Seong Kim, Padres LHP, Abdomen -- Kim was scratched from the lineup Sunday due to discomfort in his abdomen. As of publication, the results of the testing of the infielder are unavailable, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if he’s held out -- maybe even placed on the injured list -- with the Padres all but eliminated from postseason contention.
Tyler O’Neill, Cardinals OF, Foot: O’Neill was placed on the 10-day injured list with a sprained right foot before Sunday’s game. The outfielder will all but assuredly miss the rest of the season and wasn’t exactly playing at an elite level prior to the injury. The Cardinals called up Juan Yepez, a hitter who has had mixed success but put up big numbers in the minors. He could be a sneaky fantasy option when he’s in the lineup over the final weeks.
Top Priced Starting Pitchers for Main Slate (DraftKings)
Good options, with Peralta unsurprisingly the most expensive at your disposal. The right-hander has been on a strong run with at least nine strikeouts in four of his last five chances. His ERA has dropped from 4.46 at the start of August to 3.79. With St. Louis playing the string out, there’s plenty of reason to believe Peralta will pile up the strikeouts without much damage inflicted upon him.
Rodriguez vs. Lynn is an intriguing matchup, and there’s added flavor because of what happened -- and what didn’t happen -- at the deadline. Lynn was traded from the White Sox to Los Angeles near the deadline, while Rodriguez evoked his no-trade clause to block a trade to the Dodgers on deadline day.
Both pitchers haven’t been great as of late, but Lynn offers the better chance for a win even with his team no longer having anything to play for with Los Angeles clinching the AL West on Sunday in Seattle.
The highest risk -- but potentially highest reward -- comes with Verlander and his five-figure cost against Baltimore. The right-hander has 5.40 ERA in September, and he’ll be facing one of the best lineups in the Orioles. While that offers risk, Verlander was pitching as well as anyone at the end of August, and he’s gone seven innings in his last two outings with a 13/1 K/BB over 14 frames.
It’s a tough ask, but Verlander is going to be worthy of roster consideration until he decides to retire in 2042 or so.
Sneaky option
Bryan Woo vs. Athletics: $7,200
‘Sneaky’? Against lowly Oakland? Woo’s price point makes him the best pitching option. The rookie right-hander has been up-and-down in 2023, but he’s coming off his best start of the season -- 5.2 scoreless frames with eight strikeouts against the Angels.
The Mariners essentially are in must-win mode in order to stay in the division race as well as the Wild Card, and it’s reasonable to expect quality run support behind Woo with J.P. Sears on the bump for the A’s.
You can add Woo and one of the big-name starters above, and process suggests you should have a nice little Monday.
Stack Attack
Phillies vs. Atlanta (Kyle Wright)
Wright has had success at the highest level, but he missed over four months with injury, and he didn't look great in his return to the mound Monday with six runs allowing over three innings. The Phillies are fighting for a chance to host a postseason series as the top Wild Card in the National League, and this stack gives you some “star” options in Realmuto and Harper with some relatively ‘cheap” plays in Stott and Marsh. On paper, this one makes an awful lot of sense.
Brewers vs. Cardinals (Adam Wainwright)
It’s simple -- if Wainwright is starting, take advantage. He’s pitched well in two of his last three outings in terms of run-prevention but hasn’t struck out more than five hitters in a start since May 29. It’s hard to take any recent success too seriously with a 7.95 ERA over his 94 innings.
Get as many Milwaukee hitters in the lineup as you can. Congrats on a great career, Mr. Wainwright, but he’s someone fantasy managers must attack over the last starts of his career.
Chris Crawford gives his take on today's Underdogs and PrizePicks
We’re getting closer to the postseason, but there still are fun over/unders to hit in the regular season with a strong slate available Wednesday.
Spencer Strider, Braves RHP: 8.0 strikeouts -- Over (PrizePicks)
Strider gave up 10 runs in his last two outings and went only 2 2/3 innings against the Cardinals. He had been fantastic before that, however, and prior to Wednesday’s clunker he had struck out at least nine hitters in three straight contests. Philadelphia is talented, but has plenty of hitters who can swing and miss. It’s risky for a number this high, but I’ll bet on Strider getting back into double digits today.
Ronald Acuña, Braves OF: 1.5 Total Bases -- Over (PrizePicks)
Would anyone be shocked if Acuña hit this total before the end of the first inning? He had another monster game Thursday with two homers against the Cardinals, and he’s already gone deep four times in the month of September. He’s also hitting just .214 in the month, but there’s simply too much talent -- and too much success -- to ever bet against Acuña reaching this total in 2023.
Jameson Taillon, Cubs RHP: 3 runs -- Over (Underdog)
Taillon is coming off his best start of the season -- and the best as a member of the Cubs -- with six scoreless innings against the Diamondbacks. He also has a 5.27 ERA on the season, and prior to his gem vs the Dbacks he had allowed at least four runs in five straight starts.
He’ll face a Colorado lineup that isn’t spectacular, but it’s at Coors Field, and everyone is well aware how hard it is to pitch there. It’s too hard to imagine Taillon having back-to-back strong starts based on what we’ve seen for the overwhelming majority his campaign.
Julio Rodriguez, Mariners OF: 9.5 fantasy points -- Over (Underdog)
After a sensational August that basically erased his early-season struggles, Rodriguez has been outstanding in September as well with a .300 average and .740 slugging percentage over his first 50 at-bats. He’ll go up against the Angels bullpen Wednesday -- a unit that does not rank among the best in baseball -- and it wouldn’t even be a surprise if he picked up two hits and drove in a few runs as the Mariners battle for a playoff spot.
Bo Bichette, Blue Jays SS: 1.5 total bases -- Over (PrizePicks)
Bichette came off the injured list Friday and got two hits against the Royals. Since then, he’s gone hitless in his next 11 at-bats. While some might find that concerning, it suggests to me the talented shortstop is due for a big day. He’s also slashed a strong .352/.400/.568 against left-handers, and Bichette will be squaring off against a southpaw in Jordan Montgomery and the Rangers on Wednesday. Simply put, this is too good of a player to believe he’ll stay down for long.
Nolan Arenado, Cardinals 3B + Adley Rutschman, Orioles C: 4.0 Hits+Runs+RBI – Over (PrizePicks)
We’re being optimists today and going over with every total. Rutschman and Arenado will face starting pitchers that inspire confidence, with the catcher squaring off against Drew Rom (7.79 ERA) and the third baseman seeing Kyle Gibson (5.12). It just takes one of these players having a big day to hit the over, but I’d bet on both hitters getting there in a game that could -- and should -- be a high-scoring affair.
Insights to hel;p you build out your DFS baseball teams
Multiple games have a chance to be postponed or delayed east of the Mississippi. White Sox-Royals is the most likely to see a delay or flat-out cancellation, but Braves-Phillies, Red Sox-Yankees and Diamondbacks-Mets are all games fantasy GMs will want to pay close attention to before committing to having them in the lineup.
Jasson Dominguez, Yankees OF, UCL: Dominguez will miss the rest of the 2023 season and a good portion of the 2024 year after he was diagnosed with a torn ulnar ligament in his right elbow. The young outfielder was impressive in his time with the Yankees, but now won’t be an option for fantasy managers until after next year’s All-Star break, in all likelihood.
Shohei Ohtani, Angels DH, Oblique: Ohtani sat for the seventh consecutive game because of his oblique injury on Sunday, but there is a chance that the presumed 2023 MVP could be back in the lineup to start Monday’s series against the Mariners. Obviously, fantasy GMs will want to make absolute sure that the designated hitter is in the lineup, but there’s always a chance for Ohtani to hit a homer or two whenever he’s available to play.
Jordan Lawlar, Diamondbacks SS, Hand
Ketel Marte, Diamondbacks 2B, Knee
Both Marte and Lawlar suffered injury scares in Saturday’s game against the Cubs, with Marte fouling a ball off his knee, and Lawlar being hit in the hand by a pitch in the 10th inning. Both sat out Sunday’s game, but Diamondbacks manager Torey Lovullo told reporters that Lawlar’s absence was just a day off and his hand was “fine.”
Still, managers will need to pay close attention to this one, as there’s a chance both talented options are on the bench for the series opener against the Mets on Monday -- if the game is even able to be played.
It’s a loaded Monday in terms of quality and quantity on the mound, and unsurprisingly, Glasnow is the most expensive option for the main slate. He’s coming off a start where he punched out 14 Boston hitters and allowed just one run on three hits while picking up a victory, and he’s compiled a 2.98 ERA with an excellent 134/28 K/BB ratio in his 17 starts for Tampa Bay in 2023.
The Twins lineup offers some pop, but it also offers a considerable amount of swing-and-miss to go with it. Glasnow could -- and should -- be in line for at least a good deal of strikeouts. Again.
The Blue Jays-Rangers series is one that has massive playoff implications for a handful of clubs, and it also sees one of the hottest pitchers in baseball -- Chris Bassitt -- in his last two starts. He’s gone eight innings in both of those outings while allowing just one run, but it’s worth pointing out those starts came against the Athletics and Nationals, and he “only” struck out 10 hitters over those 16 innings. He’ll take on a Texas team that is scuffling but still features some elite offensive options, so there’s a little bit of risk in using an option like Bassitt in this Monday slate.
Speaking of scuffling, the Mariners are limping into the final few weeks after a 3-7 road trip, but Gilbert has been a strong option as of late, and makes a lot of sense as a fantasy player against the Angels. The right-hander has struck out nine in back-to-back outings, and he’s allowed no more than three runs over his last four starts. Even if Ohtani is in the lineup, the Halos are a well below-average offense at this point, and with the Mariners due to pick things back up, it wouldn’t be a big surprise at all if Gilbert registered his 14th win and added double-digit or so strikeouts for good measure.
Kutter Crawford vs. Yankees: $5,700
Crawford has struggled in his last two starts while allowing 11 total runs over 6.1 innings, but it’s worth pointing out that those outings came against the Rays and Astros. In this one, the young right-hander will be squaring off a Yankees’ team that isn’t bereft of talent, but doesn’t offer the same kind of lineup depth that those two aforementioned teams possess. Crawford has been a solid if unspectacular option for the majority of the season, and his cheap price would allow you to add one of the big names above without (too much) worry.
Astros vs. Athletics (Mason Miller)
Miller has had success in his brief time with Oakland and offers the potential for miss bats in the future, but he’ll be making his first start since May as he works his way back from an elbow sprain, and he isn’t likely to go terribly deep in this outing even if he’s effective. The Astros are starting to pick things back up as of late, and you get a pair of stars in Alvarez and Tucker with this stack on top of some cheaper options. It will make sense to stack against Oakland until the season comes to a conclusion.
Cubs vs. Rockies (Kyle Freeland)
Freeland has posted a 5.05 ERA in Coors Field this season. Against right-handed hitters, he’s given up a slash of .312/.357/.554 over 455 at-bats with 25 homers and 54 extra-base hits. The Rockies are 51-91. The Cubs are closing in on making a surprise trip to the postseason. This one’s pretty obvious right? Just because it’s obvious doesn’t make it a bad play, however, and the fact that none of these options are expensive means you can add some real star talent to your DFS roster both on the mound and the rest of your lineup.
Construct your lineup with these insights from today's slate
For the first time in a while, there’s a good chance of rain playing an impact on multiple games. The weather in Philadelphia makes a rainout likely between the Phillies and Marlins, and there’s a chance for a delay/postponement between the Yankees and Brewers, Dodgers and Nationals, Orioles and Red Sox. Buyer beware.
Mookie Betts, foot: The good news is Betts avoided structural damage and has a good chance to be back well before the end of the regular season. The bad news is that it appears that the MVP candidate will not be in the lineup for any of the games against the Nationals, so it’ll be at least a couple more days before he’s hitting at the top of that loaded Los Angeles lineup. Chris Taylor is an intriguing option to use in Betts’ place in DFS lineups.
There are not many aces taking the bump, but there are some hurlers who have the stuff/command to put together strong starts in quality matchups. Eovaldi tops the list in large part because of his matchup against the lowly Athletics but is coming off a disaster of a start against the Astros where he was pulled in the second inning. Those struggles actually make Eovaldi more intriguing to me as a bounce back candidate for a Texas team that desperately needs to pick up wins over the final three or so weeks of the year.
The Padres have been as disappointing as any team in baseball during the 2023 season, but that’s more to do with the lineup than the starting pitching (for the most part, anyway), and Lugo has shown he has the necessary tools to be a starter at the highest level. He’s posted a 3.49 ERA so far in 2023, and that number has dropped thanks to three-of-four starts seeing the right-hander give up zero runs while posting a solid -- if unspectacular -- 29/8 K/BB ratio since the start of August over 32.1 innings.
The Astros are a tough lineup to crack, but it does make sense to ride the hot hand of Lugo. You just might want to pair him with a starter who is a little more likely to miss bats for Saturday’s slate.
Dylan Dodd vs. PIT $5600
Dodd is being called up by Atlanta to make a start against the Pirates, and if he was facing the overwhelming majority of lineups, he’d be someone to consider stacking against rather than using in a lineup. He struggled in his limited time in the majors and hasn’t exactly dominated at the highest level, but he does have a solid arsenal, and since we’re big into contrarian plays, Dodd’s chance to get a win against a mediocre at best Pittsburgh team makes him worth consideration. Just be prepared for a wide variety of outcomes here.
Padres vs. Astros (Cristian Javier)
Javier has had plenty of success in this league but has not been an effective option as of late. In fact, the right-hander has seen his ERA inflate to 4.65 after an August where he registered a 6.17 ERA while walking 16 batters in 23.1 innings against just 16 strikeouts. He did strike out eight against the Yankees while allowing three runs over six frames, but it’s pretty clear that Javier doesn’t have his best stuff nor command right now. The Padres make sense as a cost-efficient streaming option for this contest.
Guardians vs. Angels (Tyler Anderson)
If fantasy players aren’t into using San Diego’s lineup, they may want to take a close look at the Guardians facing off against Anderson. The left-handed hurler has really scuffled as of late, and after posting an awful 8.10 ERA in the month of August over five starts, he had another mediocre effort Sunday against the Athletics where he allowed three runs in 5.1 innings of work.
The best part about this stack is that no one is going to break the bank, so you can use these four options and still go after some star talent to fill out the lineup. There’s simply no reason to trust Anderson as an option right now. Take advantage of it.
Chris Crawford breaks down his favorite options on Pick 'Em style contests on Underdog and PrizePicks for Sept. 8.
Friday offers your usual smorgasbord of quality and quantity, with key matchups like the Mariners taking on the Rays and the Cubs squaring off with the Diamondbacks that are accompanied with September doldrums like Guardians-Angels.
Abbott had 8-plus ERA in August, but he bounced back nicely with 6.1 strong innings against the Cubs on Saturday. Tonight he’ll face a St. Louis lineup that ranks 19th in strikeouts, but there are hitters who offer swing-and-miss, and this is a relatively low total for a pitcher with Abbott’s stuff. Take a chance on Abbott to pile up some strikeouts.
Would anyone be shocked if Acuna hit this total before the end of the first inning? The outfielder had another monster game Thursday with two home runs against the Cardinals, and he’s already gone deep four times in September. He’s hitting just .214 this month, but there’s too much talent and success to ever bet against Acuna reaching this total in 2023.
Crawford has been a revelation for the Mariners at the top of the lineup, and on top of hitting a respectable .269, he’s among the on-base percentage leaders in baseball at .386 thanks in large part to 81 walks. Tonight he faces Taj Bradley, who has issued 15 free passes over his last 26.2 innings over six appearances, and he’s walked at least four hitters in each of his last two starts. Even without elite power, Crawford’s ability to work counts makes him a great bet to draw a walk against a pitcher that just doesn’t have great control at this moment.
There’s a lot of things to like about Harrison in the long-term, and he’s shown some flashes of brilliance in his short time in the majors. The one thing he hasn’t shown at any level thus far is efficiency, and it’s a tough task to bet on six innings for a rookie pitcher that relies on strikeouts and often has issues finding the strike zone. Harrison may pile up the Ks and hold a bad Colorado lineup in check, but you’re probably -- emphasis on probably -- looking at a pitcher that is going to be done after five innings or so.
Vaughn was excellent in the final two games of the series against the Royals earlier in the week, picking up three hits in each of those contests and adding a pair of homers for good measure. The third pick of the 2020 draft will take on Reese Olson; a right-hander who did pitch well against the White Sox on Saturday with seven scoreless innings, but he only struck out one batter in that effort, and he’s a good bet for some regression. Ride the hot hand here with Vaughn, even with a less-than-spectacular supporting cast around him.
A fun one to close things out. Snell is the presumed Cy Young favorite while leading baseball in ERA (2.50) and ranking third in strikeouts (201), but he’ll be going up against a Houston lineup that scored a whopping 39 runs over the three-game series against the Rangers. The Guardians are the only team in the American League that is more difficult to strike out.
Still, there’s no denying Snell’s ability to miss bats, and while Brown has had more downs than ups in the second half of the season, he’s a good bet to put up a handful or so of punchouts against one of the most disappointing teams of 2023 in San Diego.
Chris Crawford breaks down the best DFS options for the Thursday Night football opener between the Lions and Chiefs.
We’re finally here. After an eventful offseason that saw plenty of drama that helped satiate our cravings for on-field action, we’re now ready to kick off the 2023 season with the defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs taking on the Detroit Lions on Thursday.
Detroit Lions at Kansas City Chiefs, 8:20 p.m. ET
Line: Chiefs - 4.5
Moneyline: Chiefs +180, Lions -218
Over/Under: 53 points
Chiefs
Points for: 29.2 PPG (1st)
Points allowed: 21.7 (16th)
Lions
Points for: 26.6 (5th)
Points allowed: 25.1 (28th)
Chiefs
Kelce’s is one of the biggest injuries to monitor throughout the regular season. The KC tight end hyperextended his knee in practice Tuesday and is still dealing with inflammation.
The good news is Kansas City believes the all-everything TE won’t miss considerable time, but with a short week of practice and 16 games to play after the opener, it wouldn’t be a shock if the Chiefs decided to take things slow.
With Kelce out, Noah Gray will likely get most of the snaps in his place, and he’s an intriguing -- if risky -- play for what could be a high-scoring affair.
Toney doesn’t have an injury designation, but the speedy wideout was limited early because of a knee issue, and it may prevent him from playing a full complement of snaps tonight.
It’s not injury-related, but the Chiefs will also be without Chris Jones, who’s still holding out for a contract extension. He’s one of the NFL’s best defensive linemen, and his ability to rush the passer will likely be missed Thursday.
Lions
The only player with an injury designation is defensive back Emmanuel Moseley, who has been ruled out with a knee injury. That means likely more playing time for Khalil Dorsey and Steven Gilmore but isn’t likely to play a major factor in the game.
Mahomes is the biggest name in football, and even if he is missing his favorite target in Kelce, there’s reason to believe he’ll have another monster game at Arrowhead. The 27-year-old has gotten off to hot starts in the previous two seasons, including a five-touchdown effort against the Cardinals in 2022 and 337 yards along with three passing scores vs the Browns in 2021.
The Lions ranked 30th in pass yards allowed, 31st in net yards per attempt and 23rd in passing touchdowns in 2022. Although the Detroit D should be improved, this is a tough task and an easy reason to play Mahomes. As if you needed one.
Gibbs will be making his NFL debut after the Lions surprisingly drafted the him 12th out of Alabama. The Lions will likely use Montgomery in a similar -- if not carbon copy -- mode to how they used Jamaal Williams in 2022.
But Detroit is going to make Gibbs a big part of the offense early and often, even if Montgomery might vulture a touchdown or four away from him in the 2023 campaign. And again, remember that the Chiefs won’t have Jones to help with either the run or pass defense.
St. Brown is going to be a target fiend again in 2023, but there are question marks about how the rest of the targets will look for Goff and the Detroit offense. Jones Jr. and Josh Reynolds are options that have had flashes of competence in their time in the league -- Jones Jr. obviously on a more consistent basis than Reynolds -- but neither represent an option that is going to keep teams from keying in on St. Brown.
While Goff was among the most improved players in the NFL last year, his lack of consistency from season-to-season and a supporting cast that doesn’t quite compete with the best make this a risky offense to target in DFS.
Sam LaPorta, TE, DET $6500 (FanDuel)
The Lions draft LaPorta 35th out of tight end generator Iowa. In 2022, the Chiefs were in the bottom 10 in allowing fantasy points to tight ends, as several players were able to find room in the middle of the field against Kansas City, especially in those games where Kansas City was able to put up points and made the passing game a necessary option.
Playing a rookie tight end is risky, but it wouldn’t be a major surprise if LaPorta came away with a receiving score in his first professional opportunity.
Sky Moore, WR, KC $7700 (DraftKings)
Moore did not exactly pile up the fantasy points in 2023 during his rookie season, with just 33 targets and only 250 yards and no scores. He was a second-round selection by the Chiefs in 2022 thanks in large part to his speed, and no QB gets the ball downfield better than Mahomes.
Moore offers breakout potential with a chance to get off to a nice start with a friendly matchup tonight.
Noah Gray, TE, KC $3,600 (DraftKings)
Much of Gray’s value depends on whether or not Kelce plays. But even if he does, maybe consider Gray at this price point. It seems unlikely the Chiefs will risk their best non-Mahomes weapon for a full amount of snaps even if he is active, and Gray is fourth among returning players for the Chiefs in receptions with 28.
It’s a bit of a contrarian play if Kelce is in the lineup, but contrarian plays are often the ones that help DFS players finish with a good amount of cash.
The Lions were one of the scrappiest teams in the NFL in 2022 under coach Dan Campbell, and the Chiefs could be without one of the true difference-makers in the sport in Kelce. Still, there’s a generational quarterback starting for Kansas City at home, so I’ll take the Chiefs to cover in what should be an entertaining way to open the season.
Chiefs 35, Lions 28
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