Who's stock is up and down for Dynasty leagues
After playing really well off the bench in Atlanta’s first two games, Johnson got the opportunity to start on Sunday. He posted a 14/7/1/2/1 line with two 3-pointers and helped the Hawks get their first win of the season. His play was already helping his value ascend, but a permanent place in the starting unit will skyrocket him up the ranks. Hopefully this wasn’t matchup dependent to deal with Giannis Antetokounmpo and Brook Lopez, though with Atlanta hosting Minnesota on Monday, it would be shocking if they switched up their starting unit.
Not that anyone really questioned this, but Thomas is an elite scorer. He just needs the opportunity. Brooklyn has leaned on him through their first two games of the season, and he averaged 33 points while shooting a scorching 62.5% from the floor. It’s fun to ride the hype train, and Thomas may have some more incredible scoring nights. However, he’s not going to continue to shoot over 60% from the field, so it may be smart to sell high on Thomas.
The first two games of the season have been a bit of a mixed bag for Williams. He was awesome against Atlanta, but he put up a stinker and got into foul trouble against Detroit. I’m expecting him to play more like he did against the Hawks than he did against the Pistons more often than not. If a manager in your league overreacts to what he did in game two, remember what he did against Clint Capela and Onyeka Okongwu in game one and buy low.
Jarrett Allen has yet to suit up this season, which has allowed us the opportunity to see what Mobley looks like as the starting center. The first game against Brooklyn wasn’t great (10/6 with two blocks). Game two against the Thunder was better (14/15 with two blocks). However, with Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland also out on Saturday, Mobley dominated down low with 33 points, 14 rebounds and three blocks. When the team is healthy, he won’t see this many offensive opportunities (23 shots against Indiana on Saturday). However, he’ll be the face of the franchise one day, and this game was incredibly encouraging.
Dallas has only played two games so far, with Lively recording a double-double in the first one off the bench and playing a limited role despite starting in the second. However, don’t get discouraged. Brooklyn was without Nicolas Claxton, so they didn’t really play a center for Lively to match up with. Jason Kidd adapted to the small ball unit, which limited Lively. Dallas shouldn’t play many teams that don’t have a center, so we’ll get a better look at Lively moving forward.
With each passing game, Duren’s value rises more and more. It’s early, but he has been a top ten player in fantasy basketball so far, with averages of 18 points, 15.3 rebounds, 4 assists and 2.7 blocks while shooting 80% from the floor and 75% from the line. He has been dominant so far in year two, and the managers that have him rostered should continue to enjoy the ride. He always had a lot of upside, but doing this before turning 20 is incredibly impressive.
Let’s be patient here. Scoot has been worse than I expected, but it’s important to examine the context. Portland is a bad team that has arguably been worse than expected. Anfernee Simons is now hurt, which puts even more pressure on Scoot. Rookie point guards often struggle early on, but it doesn’t mean that they won’t pan out. If a manager in your league is panicking, buy low. Scoot is going to be incredible, but it isn’t going to happen from day one, and that’s okay.
George dominated Summer League and had a solid preseason. He had a limited role over their first two games, but he played 27 minutes against Phoenix in their last game, with Talen Horton-Tucker playing just 16 as the starting point guard. There aren’t many rookies that have been able to start this season, but George could move into the starting unit soon. He had 12 points, seven rebounds and six assists off the bench in their last game. His value will skyrocket if he takes over the starting point guard job, so acquire him before that if you’re interested.
Possible breakouts who could help win your league
Every year, fantasy managers scour through different sites to find THE breakout player that is going to win them their league. That guy in Round 4 who will provide top-five value, or the one you can select in the second half of the draft who will be a second-round producer (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Lauri Markkanen last season).
I can’t promise all these players will be league winners, but I’m confident they’ll raise their dynasty value quickly. For some, this is the lowest they’ll ever be valued, so if you want in, do it now. For others, they’ll start the season very well but may not be able to sustain it. That makes this a great time to buy in, since you should be able to flip them for better value later.
The situation is perfect for a Maxey breakout. James Harden refuses to play for the 76ers, but a trade has yet to come. We’ve seen Daryl Morey be patient in the past with a disgruntled star (i.e., Ben Simmons), so it wouldn’t be shocking if he held onto Harden until another All-Star player demands a trade.
With no help on the way, Maxey will be the No. 2 scoring option in Philly. In 13 games without Harden last year, Maxey averaged 24.8 points, 5.4 assists, 3.8 rebounds, 1.1 steals and 3.2 triples. A mid-season trade could hurt his value, but if Philly falls short of their expectations again this season, Joel Embiid COULD ask out, which would leave this as Maxey’s team.
Vassell is a favorite of many fantasy analysts, but if you weren’t paying attention, you may have been confused by his four-year, $146 million extension. The former lottery pick has taken a large step forward in each of his first three seasons, and this next one should be no different. He’s healthy, he has more help, and he has another year of experience under his belt.
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While Victor Wembanyama is the future of the franchise, Vassell is the Spurs’ second-best player. He can contribute value across the board, but he still has room to improve. He’s nowhere near his ceiling, but his rise should start this season. Buy in before he blossoms.
Sure, there’s only one basketball in Portland, but Simons may be the best scorer on this team full of scorers. He turned 24 in June, but he’s one of the most lethal shooters in the league. In 11 games without Dame last season, Simons averaged 27.9 points, 5.7 assists and 4.6 triples per game.
Simons won’t reach that volume over the course of a full season, but he’ll still return solid value in those categories. He doesn’t offer much defensively, but that won’t keep him off the floor. This is Scoot Henderson’s team, but Simons will look like the star next season.
Collins just signed a two-year, $35 million extension Sunday, which means they want him to be the center next to Wemby until 2026. Collins has been solid in the preseason, but he was incredible to finish last season. Over the final two months, he averaged 16.5 points, 8.0 rebounds, 3.8 assists, 1.1 steals, 1.1 blocks and 1.6 triples. He may produce to that level during the season, but he’ll provide well-rounded value from the center spot for the next few years.
Okongwu is so close to taking over the starting center spot in Atlanta. It is surprising that Clint Capela has lasted this long, but when OO takes over, he’s going to boom in fantasy. He shot 5-for-13 from deep in four preseason games, and while he may not shoot quite that many during the regular season, he’ll provide way more spacing for Trae Young to operate than Capela ever has.
Plus, Okongwu was nearly a top-75 player in 9-cat leagues last season with averages of 9.9 points, 7.2 rebounds, 0.7 steals and 1.3 blocks while shooting 63.8% from the field in 23.1 minutes. He also shot 78.1% from the line, which is much better than Capela. Seriously, trade for this guy before he gets a permanent starting job.
“Detroit has too many centers! There aren’t enough minutes for Duren, Isaiah Stewart, James Wiseman AND Marvin Bagley! I’m just staying away from that poverty franchise.” Let’s make something clear: Duren is the center of the future in Detroit. He’s the best big they have, and he’s going to start this season.
He’s a walking double-double that will shoot a high field goal percentage and provide defensive stats. Traditional center stuff, but he hasn’t even turned 20 yet! Plus, he showcased some shooting range and ball handling during Summer League.
The sky's the limit for this kid, and he’s going to grow alongside their young core. Grab him now before your league mates figure out that he is far and away the best big in Detroit.
Much like with Okongwu, Johnson is close to a starting role. A changing of the guard is happening in Atlanta’s frontcourt, albeit very slowly. Since their Eastern Conference Finals run a few years ago, they’ve traded away Kevin Huerter and John Collins, and it wouldn’t be shocking if Clint Capela, Saddiq Bey and De’Andre Hunter were also moved within the next few seasons (some sooner than others).
As those trades happen (or even before if Johnson simply takes the starting role), minutes will open up. Johnson is the starting power forward of the future in Atlanta and has shown the upside to provide value across the board. He had an exciting preseason, and it’s only a matter of time before he soars to new heights.
Daniels isn’t on the cusp of a breakout, but he is still a player to buy now. Daniels should see a larger role to start the season with Jose Alvarado out, but it will still be limited. He played well in the preseason and showcased an ability to get both steals and assists while also displaying an improved 3-point shot.
As C.J. McCollum ages, Daniels will play a larger role, and there will come a time when Daniels is the starting point guard and providing top-50 value. Make sure he’s on your roster before that happens!
Rookies and young players on verge of breakouts
When it comes to fantasy basketball, the preseason can be misleading. Some players benefit from expanded roles with the usual starters sitting, such as Tre Mann, who had 18 points, eight rebounds, five assists, one steal and one block after Cason Wallace exited early with a toe injury on Sunday.
Mann is a solid depth piece, but his performance isn’t going to translate into real production this season, even if it was encouraging. Mann may be a solid streaming option from time to time, but this game isn’t a sign of things to come.
Mainly, we’ll look at rookies and other young guys on the cusp of a breakout season. We’ll be keeping an eye on the dynasty value of players right here, every Monday. With the regular season coming up Oct. 24, let’s analyze how a handful of players have looked during the preseason and how their dynasty value could change.
Before he even played a game, I had Wemby ranked third in my dynasty rankings. Now that he’s suited up for the Spurs, I think having him third should be his floor. I still have Nikola Jokic and Luka Doncic ahead, but I think he could move higher quickly. Wemby has looked generational through two preseason games, and the only reason for him to not be higher than three is that Jokic and Luka are better right now.
However, if he continues his preseason production into the regular season, I won’t hesitate to move him ahead of both Jokic and Luka, especially for younger dynasty rosters. His preseason performance did nothing to slow the hype.
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Much like Wemby, the hype around Chet can’t grow much more. I had him ranked 14th in dynasty, but I’m tempted to move him into the top 10. He has a fantasy friendly game and has looked really good early, though the first preseason game was much better than his second. Against Detroit, he shot 4-for-11 from the field and only grabbed four rebounds in 14 minutes.
We saw a good game against the Spurs and a subpar game against the Pistons. For this season, he should be really good, but if his performance against San Antonio is a glimpse of what this kid could look like, his dynasty stock will never be lower than it is right now.
The numbers don’t show how good Scoot has been through three preseason games. He didn’t play much in their first game against the New Zealand Breakers, but he was incredible against the Suns. He struggled with his shot a bit against the Jazz, but still had eight assists. It’s his feel for the game that has stood out. He is a star in the making and the clear second-best player in this class (sorry, I still can’t get over Charlotte passing on him, even if Brandon Miller has looked good during the preseason).
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Scoot’s first year may be a struggle at times, like it is for most rookie point guards. However, you can already tell that this is his team. He’s going to be good for a long time, which is why I have him as a top-20 dynasty asset.
Many analysts have pegged JJ as a sleeper and late-round target. He started in Atlanta’s first two preseason games before coming off the bench in the third. He has 13 assists in 55 minutes and has showcased the ability to produce defensive stats and knock down shots from deep.
However, we can’t get too far ahead of ourselves. With the way the Hawks are currently constructed, it is unlikely Johnson starts, at least right off. The three frontcourt starters will likely be De’Andre Hunter, Saddiq Bey and Clint Capela.
Johnson has a lot of hype now, but that could die down quickly if his role is limited. That is the best time to buy in. He’s the starter of the future, but it is unlikely that he will be one to open the year.
Kuminga is in the same boat as Johnson -- a third-year player who had been underutilized in his first two seasons who was having a really good preseason. Through three preseason games, he is averaging 26 points, 5.7 rebounds, 2.7 assists, 1.0 steals and 2.7 triples per game. He hasn’t shot the ball incredibly well from deep through two seasons, but if that is a legit part of his game, he can be incredibly valuable in fantasy.
However, the situation in Golden State isn’t ideal. That’s why it’s important to look ahead. The Warriors extended Draymond for four more years, which means that Kuminga won’t be starting for them anytime soon. There’s a real chance they trade him to acquire more “win-now” talent at the deadline, which would be ideal for him. Kuminga has showcased his talent this preseason, but he won’t get the chance to pop until he is on a team that will give him an expanded role.
I didn’t have Coulibaly starting at small forward on my bingo card after the draft. Frankly, I was surprised Washington traded up for him. He just turned 19 in July, yet he has seven steals and two blocks through two preseason games. He also scored 12 points and hit two triples against the Hornets on Thursday.
Defense is going to get him on the floor, but if he can provide value offensively as well, he’s going to be incredibly dangerous, especially in fantasy. We just saw Jalen Williams have a really good rookie season and finish among the league leaders in steals.
Coulibaly may not produce to the same level, but he should be able to provide swipes from day 1. He should get a chance to work through his mistakes in Washington, so this situation is ideal for him. I’m all in on Coulibaly.
I still like Amen more than Ausar long-term, which is why I have him ranked a few spots higher. However, Ausar being a starter from day 1 will help his progression a lot. Amen might be stuck behind Fred VanVleet for a few seasons, but Ausar will be a producer from day 1. He hasn’t shot the ball well, but he’s averaging 10.0 points, 9.0 rebounds, 4.0 assists, 1.5 blocks and 1.0 triple per game.
While he’ll have to share the ball with Cade Cunningham, Ausar has shown that he can make an impact on both ends of the floor without needing the ball. Any questions about the Thompson twins need to be laid to rest. The twins are future stars. It’s all about opportunity for them, and Ausar’s appears to be coming much, much earlier.
These last two are for the dynasty sickos. Sure, stars matter, but these are for the managers that do it for the love of the game. The ones that get frustrated because someone won’t accept their trade offer of two second-round rookie picks to move up a few spots in the second round of their draft to get the 18-year-old that might be able to crack an NBA rotation someday. But that’s their guy, and they want them bad. If that sounds like you, then strap in.
After a really solid Summer League performance, Strawther has averaged 20.3 points and four triples through three preseason games. He could end up as part of Denver’s rotation, since they lost multiple role players in free agency. This is why they drafted him with the 29th pick. That may not lead to much fantasy value, but being in the rotation for the NBA champs is a good start.
I was a tad surprised Camara was included in the Deandre Ayton trade. Apparently, Phoenix liked him, but not enough to keep him out of talks to end Ayton’s tenure with the Suns. After averaging 16.3 points and seven rebounds in Summer League, Camara had a really solid game on Saturday with 13 points, five rebounds, two assists, one steal, two blocks and three 3-pointers.
He may not have a huge role to start the year with Portland, but if they end up tanking hard (as they did the last two seasons), he could see an expanded role late in the year. He’s a guy that plays hard and should be a rotational NBA player within a few seasons. He’s worth stashing.
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