R.C. Fischer is a former corporate finance manager turned analytics football scout and the founder of Fantasy Football Metrics.com (2009). R.C. has become known for his fusion of Moneyball data analysis and renowned football tape scouting/research to be on the cutting edge of player scouting and performance analysis for Fantasy-Dynasty-IDP-DFS players and Handicapping and Prop betting.
You can find R.C.'s work at ffmetrics.com and as a guest on various podcasts and radio appearances, and now he is contributing his company's contrarian player projections for the FSL Optimizer and contributing football analysis on Sportstopia weekly throughout the season.
Longtime scout and DFS expert breaks down TNF
Intro: I watch every NFL game live, then watch it again on tape for scouting Fantasy/DFS and future betting (player props) purposes. And like a restaurant or movie ‘critic’, I’m here to report my critiques of this nationally televised game -- pro and con.
Let’s take a look at what I witnessed, the good and the bad, in the Broncos-Chiefs game on Thursday night.
Always a worst when you don’t win the top prize.
It’s been two straight TNFs without winning for the Contrarian Edge Optimizer, after winning a share of top prize in back-to-back weeks. It felt like it was getting easy, so now it’s frustrating when we aren’t treating DraftKings like a personal ATM machine weekly.
But the Optimizer will be back at DFS prize fighting all day Sunday and then for MNF. The million-dollar first-prize chase never sleeps!
I was so excited to watch this game for the Fantasy impact. I have plenty of shares in Isiah Pacheco, Patrick Mahomes andTravis Kelce in every Fantasy format there is – Redraft, Dynasty, Best Ball. I got my parmesan garlic flavored popcorn and a tall Sprite Zero and settled in to watch a ton of KC offense ... and a ton of Travis Kelce commercials!
13-0 at the half? 19-8 final? Harrison Butker was nearly the top scoring Fantasy ‘thing’ in the game (that I have almost no FF shares in).
Dominant performance by the unit that has been the best for the Chiefs this season. You knew Denver had little chance to convert on any third down. So many times, the third-down plays were halted via a sack or flush of Russell Wilson out of the pocket. KC has held all six opponents this season to 20 or fewer offensive points.
Some of what made the KC defense look so good was Denver's ineptitude. Wilson looks totally checked out or overthinking. His O-Line is weak, his wide receivers are poor. Sean Payton is supposed to be an offensive guru?
A bonus BEST to Pete Carroll and John Schnieder for dumping Wilson at the perfect time for a heist from Denver, in retrospect.
The Chiefs have scored 20 or fewer points in half of their games. This passing attack looks out of sync has no weapons when Kelce is not involved. Denver has been getting run over by everyone, but not the Chiefs in this game. not by the Chiefs this game. Mahomes did throw for 300-plus yards, but you wouldn’t have guessed it from watching the game or the tape after -- several red zone failures and blown 3rd-down conversion attempts.
The Chiefs' offense has been a giant letdown. The countdown to the Chiefs trading for a WR by the trade deadline is on.
The Broncos will be selling their two starting WRs in the next few days or weeks -- and possibly one of them to KC since Denver faces the Chiefs one last time this season in Week 8. They could send Courtland Sutton over as a mercenary for the rest of 2023 and not worry about the whole intradivision trade taboo.
The problem with the Broncos' WR fire sale is, they're mediocre. Denver tried trading Jeudy-Sutton in the preseason, but no one cared.
Denver can keep them both and let them go to free agency in 2024 and get third-round compensatory picks. What team would give higher than a third-round pick?
Only a sucker would trade big for Jerry Jeudy and give him a deal extension, so watch out for the Panthers as buyers there.
Watching Swift react like she just saw a real-life unicorn appear whenever Kelce catches a simple pass made me wonder – I wish I had someone in my life cheering on me completing basic functions of my job.
My wife doesn’t even read my articles, not a one in decades of work. But Swift looks like parents watching their young child hit a game-winning home run in a youth baseball game whenever Kelce does anything.
We all could use a Taylor Swift in our lives, on so many levels. I don’t have that. The closest I get is I use a Swiftfer to clean my kitchen floor from time-to-time, at my wife’s request (demand). And she’s not cheering me on like a trained seal as I do it.
AT LEAST my bet of KC -10.5 came through with some late luck.
I thought for sure KC would run the clock out and win by eight when they approached their final drive and blow the cover making this game experience even more ‘nothing’ for me. I was praying KC wouldn’t convert their last third-down attempt from field goal range, and thus need to kick the three-pointer to go up by 11 and then hold Denver.
KC didn’t convert, but the cosmic twist was Mahomes got sacked to create a very long field-goal attempt, which Butker nailed.
See you next TNF for Jacksonville at New Orleans!
NFL scout and Fantasy expert breaks down TNF
Intro: I watch the TNF games (and every NFL game) live, then watch it again on tape for scouting Fantasy/DFS and future betting (player props) purposes. I am a decade-plus-long football scout and Fantasy writer/player (and bettor) of football things. I am a fan of no NFL team, except the one I may have bet on. I review/study game tape for personal profit (or loss) in DFS and handicapping/props.
Let’s look at the BEST and WORST of TNF Week 5, Bears at Commanders.
After two TNF Milly Maker 1st-place finishes back-to-back, we didn’t win it this week. What? I thought you could just dial up these wins with the FSL Contrarian Optimizer! I thought it was our personal ATM!
No 1st-prize share on TNF. That’s always a ‘worst’ now. Expectations are high for the Optimizer every week based on our previous 2023 performances.
Oh, well. Moving on to Sunday and Sunday night game, and then MNF, then next week’s TNF …
We almost got to the promised land again -- one player off on one of the entries. ‘SO CLOSE’/’one player off’ DFS losses are an easy ‘worst’.
Moore opened the game with 2 catches for 78 yards and a TD -- just like that. Then, he ended the game with a 56-yard catch-and-run TD. Eight catches for 230 yards and 3 TDs total. What a night for Moore.
Coming into this game, Moore had caught 54.3% of the passes among all Bears wide receivers. He also made up 60.6% of the receiving yards among all the Bears wide receivers. Moore also has half the receiving TDs among all the Bears wide receivers.
It’s fair to say everyone reading this knew that Moore was basically the only wide receiver Fields looks for.
How is it that the Commanders secondary didn’t plan for that? It’s shocking how wide open the one guy Fields successfully works with was. What did the Commanders think was going To happen in the passing game?
I don’t know why, but doesn’t it seem like whenever you have Fantasy players (in head-to-head) going in a TNF game, they suck! And even worse, then you only have 3 days to brew/wallow about it until the rest of your Fantasy team gets after it?
Not this night with DJM.
And obviously, you needed Moore to be your Showdown DFS captain to try to get in on the top prize, and if he was, you had DFS money hopes.
Even worse than your own starting player sucking on TNF and thus stewing about it for days, is the nightmare of having the ‘luck’ of your FF opponent this week having Moore. That’s a little extra dose of horrible luck that you can stew about for a few days as well.
On the other end of the D.J. explosion was the maligned Fields. He didn’t look amazing, but he hit on the passes to Moore to rack up nice numbers and finally ran for better yards than he had the past few weeks. QB1 night, maybe the #1 QB1 this week event for the unpredictable Fields.
What might be worse than any of your Fantasy players sucking on TNF or facing D.J. Moore this week? Did you have Fields on your bench? Enjoy staring at that 30+ point score every time you look at your roster the next few days.
What is definitely worse than any of your Fantasy players sucking on TNF, or facing D.J. Moore or benching Fields, is if you had traded Fields.
Three duds to start FF 2023 for Fields, then a spike in Week 4 that you had to make a call on going forward. Was it Fields ‘figuring it out’ last week? Or was it Denver being so bad on defense that this week seemed like a good escape hatch to deal Fields.
There’s pressure on whatever player/s you acquired for Fields to make this all feel better this weekend.
Longtime scout and Fantasy expert weighs in on TNF
Intro: I watch the TNF games (and every NFL game) live, then watch it again on tape for scouting Fantasy/DFS and future betting (player props) purposes. And like a restaurant or movie ‘critic’, I’m here to report my critiques of this nationally televised game -- pro and con.
My name is R.C. Fischer, and I am a decade+ long football scout and Fantasy writer/player (and bettor) of football things...and I watch football games for a living. I am a fan of no NFL team … except the one that I may have bet on that particular game. I review/study game tape for personal profit (or loss) in DFS and handicapping/props.
Let’s take a look at what I witnessed, the good and the bad, in this game on my every Friday series on Sportstopia critiquing the ‘Best and the Worst’ of the Thursday Night Football game.
Here is the BEST and WORST of TNF Week 4, Lions at Packers.
Last week, Week 3, FSL’s Optimizer WON the TNF DraftKings DFS Milly Maker...a MILLION DOLLARS...split with 125 other people. I was just impressed that I was some kind of part of the data and strategy that won a million-dollar contest already with this new Optimizer software.
Daryl Snyder, FSL CEO, told me upfront when my company started partnering up with his – that he had a goal to win two Milly Makers...and he wanted to start accomplishing that goal by winning one to start. It was a joking statement/goal, but also, he was serious – and that’s what we’re in this for...is to prove the quality of the FSL Optimizer tool and the scouting/projections data provided. So, last week – we got his ‘one’.
Well, it didn’t take long to get Part II of the initial goal completed...because the very next week, this game Week 4 – win #2...two in-a-row. That’s insane – but it’s not pure luck. It’s the quality of the Optimizer tools, and the brains and balls of the man running the software for FSL (Mr. Snyder) converting the football info/scouting into action/strategy for the Optimizer’s line up setting, and it’s the scouting and projection data provided by firms like mine at Fantasy Football Metrics – all of it coming together like a beautiful symphony.
Back-to-back wins, this 2nd win/first prize title was only shared with 74 other people. So, a bigger slice for FSL.
I just mentioned (above) that Daryl stated his goal was to win two DFS Milly Makers...that’s what he told me, but after the Week 3 win -- he wanted to clarify and change the goal to a modification of: he wants to win the actual million-dollar prize alone and not just share it!
Hey, I was told the goal was to win two Milly Makers...and we did...Mission Accomplished! Right?
Daryl is right...the goal has to be the solo win to really move the needle, move the company forward/higher. So, it’s one night to celebrate the improbable back-to-back wins...and then back to the coal mines to study more football to now win one of these things all alone for the seven-figure dream.
Football never sleeps. There’s always a next contest to conquer. The good news for FSL – we’re doing some kick-ass conquering.
On our TNF DFS preview podcast on Sportstopia Thursday, I spoke about how strong the Lions have looked on tape all season and that they had made their move to being one of the clear top 10 best executing, all-around teams in the league, heading toward trying to get into the top 5 best – they are that good.
With that as a lead-in the Lions went out and dominated in all facets right off the bat. Detroit led 27-3 at the half while holding Green Bay to just 21 yards total offense by the half.
It was a thorough beating handed out by the clear front runner for the NFC North.
Our prize-winning DFS strategy in this game was born from a belief that Detroit would most likely dominate the Packers and put the Pack into late-game catchup mode for passing numbers. And we pretty much called it in advance on the Sportstopia TNF podcast.
See/hear for yourself (article continues below):
Subscribe to the Sportstopia YouTube Channel to get notified of when the preview shows are released on gameday!
Green Bay was a constant three-and-out in the 1st-half and looked like they might never complete a forward pass or run for positive yardage. It was 24-3 Detroit 16+ minutes into the game and the Packers were lucky it wasn’t worse than that. An awful display by the Packers.
Well, at least the Packers didn’t rollover like the Denver Broncos did last week at Miami. Green Bay actually closed the gap to 27-17 at the beginning of the 4th-quarter. The Packers fans got back into it, and it looked like we might have an exciting finish. We didn’t...but at least it kept the game interesting and gave Packers fans some hope (delusions) going forward.
Quay Walker decided to try and (illegally) jump the O-Line to try and block a field goal, a field goal attempt that the Packers defense worked so hard to halt Detroit from scoring a touchdown so they could stay two scores away with some left to mount a legit comeback – but the Walker penalty erased the field goal and gave Detroit a fresh set of downs deep in the red zone, that wound up an eventual TD and provided the dagger to the Pack.
DFS isn’t the only way to profit from the TNF game. Taking our scouting to project the game script, I bet on Detroit -2.0 for this game...and that got in the bag rather quickly, with no real risk that it would escape with late game shenanigans.
I like the bets where it’s not down to the wire praying for a kicker to miss a last second field goal or praying for a fumble or praying for an unusual lightning storm to come along and get the game canceled so that the bet would just be refunded. No, I got to enjoy this one without stress all the way through...pretty much...thanks to Quay Walker for relieving any of my possible stress.
My BEST BET of this game...failed.
Keisean Mixon, slot cornerback for Green Bay – I took the OVER 3.5 tackles prop at (+120) in DraftKings on him this game.
When Mixon has played 65% or more of the snaps in a game, he has hit 4 or more tackles in a game five times in 6 those games where he played heavily...and this night he would be on Amon-Ra St. Brown quite a bit, so lots of throws/catches headed Mixon’s way expected, which elevates tackle count hopes. Well, Detroit blew Green Bay out so fast that the Lions throttled down the passing game and instead of his usual 7-8 catches, Amon-Ra ‘only’ had 5 catches here, one for a TD (so, no tackle count possible).
Mixon wound up with 2 total tackles officially...and one missed tackle I saw (because you watch these guys like a hawk when you got money on the line) where he smashed a receiver pretty hard but the ballcarrier kind of had their momentum pushed forward by the hit and then ran into the hands of someone else who got credit for the tackle.
These are the things that drive Prop bettors out of their minds. Actually, good thing he didn’t get that 3rd tackle in like the 3rd-quarter – because then he would have needed one more tackle to pay off and I would’ve watched the rest of the game in agony watching him NOT get anymore tackles.
The Lions run defense shut down the Falcons top run offense last week...22 carries for 44 yards. This game, they crushed the Packers run game to 12 carries and 27 yards total.
One of the main themes of the DFS preview podcast, and for setting lineups, accordingly, was talking about the Lions run D. Now, the world will be talking about it the next week/s. Good luck to Miles Sanders next week.
I got into Luke Musgrave this week in some DFS lineups and in traditional head-to-head Fantasy leagues. Musgrave is a great rookie talent and had a really nice output last week/Week 3 with some opportunity left on the table due to a couple Jordan Love overthrows.
This night: One catch...one yard...out with a concussion before halftime, and as soon as he is gone the other TEs get 6 catches from then on in.
Fantasy is a wicked beast too often.
Lions rookie Brian Branch looked like he had a bad leg injury in this game, and he got carted off the field...a huge loss for the Lions and felt bad for the young man.
Then, a little while later, we saw Branch on the sideline getting taped up and then back in the game. A thankful stroke of good fortune for Branch and the Lions. Happy to see that!
With the Lions way up late, Branch was still in the game and...and he got hurt again and had to be helped off the field. Did he really need to be out there late? Who is managing the personnel? We see this risk taken all the time in the regular season. Yet, in the preseason they try to put everyone in bubble wrap. Do better by your stars NFL coaches!
See you next week/TNF Week 5 (Chicago at Washington) ...where we go for an insane third Milly Maker 1st Place in a row. It’s impossible to do...but I said that about winning a 2nd in-a-row this week. So, what do I know?
-- R.C.
Longtime scout breaks down the best and worst from TNF
Yes, it’s true -- Fantasy Sports Logic and the Contrarian Edge Optimizer won first place in the DraftKings Million Dollar to the Winner grand prize. We’ll get to that, but first my intro:
My name is R.C. Fischer, and I am a decade-plus-long football scout and Fantasy writer/player (and bettor) of football things for Fantasy Football Metrics.com, and I watch football games for a living. I am a fan of no NFL team, except the one I may have bet on. I review and study game tape for personal profit (or loss) in DFS and handicapping/props.
I watch the TNF games (and every NFL game) live, then watch it again on tape for scouting Fantasy/DFS and future betting (player props) purposes. And like a restaurant or movie critic, I’m here to report my critiques of this nationally televised game -- pro and con.
Here is the best and worst of TNF Week 3, Giants at 49ers:
Seriously! No joke. 176,470 entries with a $2.25M prize pool and $1 million to the winner.
One of the FSL Optimizer’s entries won it. Holy cow!
The $1M prize got shredded into $10K-plus payouts. I’ve never hated 124 other random strangers so much before in all my life. But it’s a great DFS Optimizer and football theory/scouting effort accomplishment for the young company nonetheless -- and all kidding aside, congrats to the other winners.
Real people really do win!
When you have a TNF-only DFS showdown contest, there’s going to be a lot of duplicate entry potential. There’s only so many players to pick from, so ties are very possible especially when the obvious stars shine like they did in this game. But you also have to hook the right sleeper plays with them and FSL did.
A win is a win.
On the FSL Podcast for this TNF DFS preview (check out the TNF DFS preview show every Thursday on Sportstopia), Daryl Snyder and I discussed the extra boost reasoning for Deebo this night, and he didn’t disappoint. The late dagger bomb TD catch by Deebo put him over the top as the high PPR scorer of any player, QBs included, in this game.
Having Deebo as the ‘Captain’ of the winning Showdown entry was a must, and that’s just what we did by pushing a few different entries with him as the captain because of the strategy discussions on the FSL TNF Preview Podcast (that drops every Thursday).
We did have entries banking on a big Dan Dimes run game/FF scoring game. However, Jones only rushed 2 times for 5 yards with no Saquon and a great need for him to run.
Somehow NYG had the bright idea to push more run game to Gary Brightwell for some reason. He too ran for five yards on four carries.
Daryl Snyder and I also discussed the scouting logic behind playing Ronnie Bell for DFS on the TNF DFS Preview Podcast earlier in the day, and we switched some other long shot names out to insert more Bell, and ‘boom’.
Bell is Brandon Aiyuk-like, and had a great training camp and preseason, he was the natural hope to fill-in for Aiyuk this game. Bell wasn’t involved in the game as much as I thought he would, but he got a TD with his two-catch, 24-yard night, and the TD was all the DFS difference.
I liked Ronnie Bell and Jalin Hyatt as the long shot plays in this game for various reasons, but I had more confidence/hope in a Hyatt deep ball pop/TD.
I saw Hyatt run a deep route early, that I think was designed to go to him, where he lined up next to some other NYG WR and they sprinted off deep off the snap and then ran into each other making a cut and took each other out of the play and all Daniel Jones could do was throw it away in desperation.
Hyatt ended the game with zero catches on zero targets and earned zero dollars on any DFS lineup he was in.
Waller had more universal DFS ownership appeal for good reason -- Kittle hasn’t been lighting up the stat sheets out of the gates in 2023. But our scouting/game script projected that the 49ers defense, known TE-killers for Fantasy scoring, would squash Waller too much, and thus Kittle, who was overdue, especially without Aiyuk there, was the better TE play.
Kittle snagged a season-best 7 catches for 90 yards, while Waller got all of 3 catches (on 7 targets) for 20 yards, and Waller did not look good (going forward for FF purposes).
The whole Waller-based NYG offense concept for 2023, they may need to rethink that.
No controversies here. The better team definitely won. San Fran won the time of possession 39/21. They converted 9 of 16 third downs. They had no turnovers (13 games in a row with 0 or 1 turnover in a game). And SF outgained the Giants 441 yards to 150. The 49ers handled business.
Me.
No, it’s not because I spent 3.5 hours of my life watching this dull mercy killing of NYG, but because I spent 3.5 hours watching it as an idiot who picked NYG +10.5 -- hoping they’d stay close for a cover.
I think there were about 19 instances (that may be exaggerated some) where the Giants held the 49ers short on a 3rd-down play but then a flag would come in and give the 49ers an extended life, thus the lopsided time of possession and final score.
The Giants were hanging in there as best they could but all the yellow flags at the absolute wrong time every time did them in from.
We’ll end on a ‘worst’ from the way this game ended.
For the final kneel downs, $4.5M QB Sam Darnold took the final snaps as Brock Purdy and his $870K payroll watched from the sidelines as he went to 11-0 in regular season and playoff games where he played the majority of the snaps or started fully.
Unbelievable.
See you for TNF Week 4, Detroit at Green Bay, where we’ll try to win the Million DFS prize all alone this time. Baby steps …
Longtime scout and Fantasy writer gives his hard-nosed take on TNF
I watched this game live and took my usual live game scouting notes ... and like a restaurant or movie ‘critic’, I’m here to report my critiques -- pro and con.
My name is R.C. Fischer, and I am a decade-plus-long football scout and Fantasy writer/player (and bettor) of football things, and I watch football games for a living. I am a fan of no NFL team, except the one that I may have bet on that particular game. I review/study game tape for personal profit (or loss) in DFS and handicapping/props.
Let’s take a look at what I witnessed in this first of my Friday series on Sportstopia critiquing the ‘Best and the Worst’ of the Thursday Night Football game.
I watch/scout every regular season NFL game twice, live and during the week watching/studying the tape and the same for all the preseason games. And by far the best presentation of the football product is by Amazon.
Their pregame panel is far superior to any pregame panel in football right now.
I don’t like most TV analysts, but I really enjoy the understated, solid analysis of Kirk Herbstreit, as compared to NBC’s Cris Collinsworth laughing about everything every other play for no reason. And Fox’s Troy Aikman constantly claiming he ‘really likes’ and/or ‘has always liked’ and/or ‘this guy is going to have a big season’ on every player who just had a positive play in the game moments before. Al Michaels is a welcome Amazon game call sidekick as well.
The Next Gen viewing option by Amazon is excellent and the X-Ray Stats option for the right-hand side of your screen for real time Passing-Rushing-Receiving totals is a dream come true.
We need Amazon, Apple, and Google to buy everything related to the NFL and bring it into the modern era.
I wanted to bet small, for fun, on the Vikings and the points in this game but I was trying to figure out all day whether top OT Christian Darrisaw was going To play/be OK or not. Minnesota already was down their key starting center going into this. When Darrisaw was not listed inactive at the deadline for reporting, I went in on MIN +6.5 to join up with my earlier in the week bets on Minnesota +7.0.
Once I placed my bet, 30 seconds later after the bet was processed, one of my guys on the ground at the game texted me that Darrisaw is still being worked out pregame and he’s a true game-time decision … and next I saw him was on the sidelines with no helmet on during the game. I thought my Vikings bet was a donation at that point.
In-game, when a Vikings starting offensive guard was taken off in a cart midgame, I knew I was doomed (as bettors like to wallow at the first sign of trouble) versus the Philly defensive front the rest of the game (thankfully, I was wrong).
The Vikings are now (0-2), and really should’ve won both of these games, but now they go into Week 3 with possibly 60% of their starting O-Line out...not good.
Despite being down three offensive line starters, key ones too, Kirk Cousins threw for 364 yards, 4 TDs/0 INTs, and nearly led a comeback win despite four lost fumbles from his crew this game.
People discount Cousins because the media has told us over and over how mediocre (or worse) he is, but the guy is right in that tier of QBs below the ‘elite’ but above the ‘middle class’. He gets disrespected in Fantasy Football because of the media bias against him, but typically finds a way to be a top 10-12 Fantasy producer in any given season.
Cousins might end this week as the #1 QB in all of Fantasy after the first two weeks. He has thrown for back-to-back 340+ yard games and has 6 TD passes this season-to-date. And, again, this big output game came with 60% of his O-Line gone.
The Eagles came into this game without starting CB James Bradberry and top Safety Reed Blankenship, which helped Cousins go off...but then the Eagles also lost the very good slot CB Avonte Maddox in-game as well. Cousins is really good as it is, but he got a boost from the wounded secondary of Philly.
On the FSL podcast we shot/published earlier Thursday analyzing this game/DFS options and strategies, we discussed the impact of the wounded Eagles secondary and how that PLUS the Minnesota corrupted O-Line would force the Vikings away from the run and into a heavy passing effort -- we get a self-congratulating ‘best’ for calling this game script and subsequent huge Vikings pass game output for profitable Fantasy/DFS plays.
It was easy to predict that Minnesota would be pushed away from any type of run game to the passing game due to the Philly D-Line strength and Vikings O-Line injuries, but also in part because Alexander Mattison is one of the worst starting RBs in the NFL right now. Super slow. Lost one fumble officially, lost another in the game that got bailed out by a lined-up-offsides penalty by the defense.
He later dropped a key pass in the hurry up offense comeback attempt...and during the 4th-quarter hurry ups he kept trying to get an extra yard by staying inbounds, when time was of the essence and he was right near the sidelines to ditch out and stop the clock, which was a must...but he didn’t seem to realize it, over and over.
Of all the things that cost Minnesota a win (a win they should have gotten) -- it was Mattison.
Minnesota did this to themselves when they paid Mattison to be ‘the guy’ this offseason. They have egg on their faces and likely won’t change/admit the error for a while, instead they’ll lean more into Mattison ahead to prove a point/save face. Whatever they do...he just cost them a win here, potentially.
Last week, Swift played 19 snaps and had 1 carry and 1 catch. This week, 28 carries for 175 yards and 1 TD, and is now ‘the greatest running back in the history of the sport’,' which is what happens/the reaction when the media gets to watch a solo night game to get hysterical about.
I’m not a huge Swift fan (as a scout), but we talked about him on the DFS pregame TNF podcast, and I noted that he looked the best of the Eagles RBs in the preseason, so I assumed he would split with Boston Scott and whichever one of them got hot would take the backfield.
Scott looked good too, but got concussed, then Swift pulled away with the victory and was in many of our FSL DFS lineups for the TNF game over the more nationally coveted Mattison. That worked well.
As we were talking on the TNF preview podcast about the Eagles RB situation for TNF, I noted the positives about Swift from the preseason -- but I also mentioned how bad Gainwell looked in Week 1 and I questioned why Philly would start Gainwell so heavy and not bother to utilize some Swift and Scott (or Penny).
Well, it looks like Gainwell’s bell cow days are numbered, deservedly so. He’s not a three-down back, he’s a nice part of an RBBC.
So, let me understand this. You (the Lions) essentially give away Swift for nothing to the Eagles, a deal that was essentially a step above cutting him. OK, fine, but ...
Then you (the Lions) turn around and waste a precious #12 pick on another small/mid-sized, speedy satellite running back? Gibbs might never have an NFL game with as many yards as Swift just had here. You would hope and pray Gibbs would have a night like Swift just had, so why not just keep Swift and not waste a #12 pick on a similar thing when you could’ve drafted Christian Gonzalez, when you desperately needed CB help?
A huge, bad business decision by Detroit.
I know, I know. Gibbs is just starting out and we don’t know how good he is. He’s a magical unicorn rookie filled with sugar plum fairies dancing in football fans’ heads.
I know, Gibbs is so fast and is great in the passing game and is a playmaker. Where have I heard that before said about a player? Oh, yeah, I remember now. It was back a couple years ago from the media and fans when Detroit took D’Andre Swift to be that guy.
I was surprised by how well the Vikings defense pressured the Eagles pass game. They sacked Hurts 4 times this game and really had the Eagles pass game stymied for a while.
In the 1st-half, I thought Hurts looked lost...playing at half speed and not in sync in the passing game. Which was an extension of looking off Week 1 against New England. At halftime of this game, I started to wonder if Hurts was going to be in for a down season or wondered if he was hurt in some way.
But then you could see as this game went, Hurts started getting in sync and throwing passes with more command. It took about six quarters of play to start the season for Hurts to shake the rust and to get into his NFL flow. Hopefully the same will be true for all the other big name QB flops from Week 1 that were flops likely due to these non-play/no touch of the QB preseason events they have to deal with.
I set myself a reminder, dated for summer 2024, to remind myself that Week 1 of NFL play is now a discombobulated mess and to assume the worst and bet all the underdogs because most teams are no longer prepared for the real games to begin. It will take 2-3 weeks for things to get up to speed for many offenses.
I did an analysis (on my home site Fantasy Football Metrics.com) of the change in Fantasy scoring by position from Week 1 of 2021 to a drop-off in Week 1 of 2022 to another (historic) drop in Week 1 of 2023. Everything is falling in Week 1s...except the DST scoring is rising, which makes sense given the drop everywhere else...especially at QB.
So, when the Vikings went down 20-7 right after halftime, off that sack/fumble setting up a quick/easy Philly score -- I jumped on the in-game odds moving on DraftKings/FanDuel where the Vikings popped up to +14.5. With the Philly secondary injuries, and the way the Vikings were able to move the ball all game (just kept fumbling it away), I thought the Vikings were a ‘hope’ to make this a shootout and get the cover.
They did...that’s always a ‘best’.
And at the same time I took the +14.5 and I also plunked one cool dollar on the moneyline for Minnesota to straight up win at +1,000 odds (while down 20-7 at that point).
When it got to 27-7, I thought all these in-game bets were quick donations -- but not-too-soon-after I was suddenly on the edge of my seat with some hope of a great +1,000 comeback by the Vikings. But it was not to be, almost but no dice, thus a ‘worst’.
Pregame, as mentioned previously, I had small bets on Minnesota at +7.0 earlier in the week and +6.5 just prior. I thought that was a donation too in the 3rd-quarter, but Minnesota scored a late TD on a drive that nearly gave me a heart attack due to drops, near-miss interceptions, a fumble/turnover saved by a defensive offsides penalty, etc. I was on the edge of my seat on every play -- you gotta love Fantasy and sports betting! Where else can you get such entertainment week-to-week?
Minnesota lost by 6, so I got my game bets covered -- barely. if only the Vikes coulda won and hooked me up with a nice present to start out my Week 2 betting.
That’s it for the Best and Worst of TNF Week 2. I’ll be analyzing the game, and every NFL game, from a purely Fantasy/Dynasty perspective over at Fantasy Football Metrics.com. daily.
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