Shelly Verougstraete is a lifelong baseball fan and has been playing fantasy baseball since the early 2010s. She has written for RotoGraphs and Pitcher List and currently writes for NBC Sports as well as Baseball HQ. When she isn't writing about baseball, she can be found hiking with her husband or hanging out at home with her two French Bulldogs, Orsillo and Soto.
Brilliant pitching and stack options for Thursday
Welcome to the final Thursday slate of the MLB season! We have some great hitting matchups tonight with Coors Field and some ho-hum starting pitchers on the slate. Let’s dig in!
The Royals and Tigers game was suspended due to rain on Wednesday, but everything looks okay for both contests.
Tony Kemp – Kemp has missed the last four games due to a right ankle sprain. If he is not ready to go against the Twins, JJ Bleday will likely patrol left field.
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. – Gurriel Jr. was scratched from Wednesday afternoon’s affair against the White Sox with left shoulder discomfort. D-backs manager Torey Lovullo said he felt tightness while taking batting practice but he is expected to rejoin the lineup on Thursday.
Ryan Mountcastle – The slugger was activated prior to Wednesday’s game but remained on the bench with lefty Patrick Corbin on the bump for the Nationals. Chris Sale takes the ball for the Red Sox but one would expect Mountcastle to start.
Luis Arraez – He has missed the last three games with a left ankle sprain. It remains unlikely that the leader in batting average in the National League will be ready to go.
Jesús Luzardo – Luzardo ($9,000 DK/ $9,700 FD) has been outstanding in his second full season with the Marlins. The 25-year-old has a 3.73 ERA, 3.75 SIERA, 27 percent strikeout rate, and 7 percent walk rate over 171 1/3 innings. He has started to show the wear and tear of the longest season of his career, but he did toss six shutout frames with eight strikeouts against the Braves two starts ago. The Mets are the 20th best offenses against southpaws and with what feels like a must-win game for Miami, Luzardo could have a big night in the Big Apple.
Chris Bassitt – While he doesn’t get as many strikeouts as many other starters, Chris Bassitt ($8,600 DK/ $9,500 FD) is as reliable as they come. On the season, he has a 3.74 ERA, 4.36 SIERA, 22 percent strikeout rate and seven percent walk rate over 192 1/3 innings. If you remove the first start of the season where he was blasted for 10 hits and nine earned runs against the Cardinals, his line drops to a 3.38 ERA with a 1.16 WHIP. The Yankees have been playing better since they transitioned towards a youth movement but Bassitt feels safe at his price point.
Luke Weaver – Once a promising young pitcher, Weaver has been a dreadful starter and is now on his third team, the Yankees. The Blue Jays are attempting to lock up a place in the playoffs. Over the last 14 days, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been outstanding. He is hitting .263/.391.658 with five homers and 10 RBI. With Weaver’s elevated HR/Barrel ratio (71 percent), it seems like we could see another homer from Vlad tonight. While Bo Bichette hasn’t been as good as Vlad, he still should be able to rack up a couple of hits and runs scored hitting at the top of the Blue Jays lineup.
Dodgers vs. Rockies (Chris Flexen)
There were a couple of years when Chris Flexen was a good back-end starter, but those years are long gone. He has spent time with the Mariners and Rockies this season, posting a 7.01 ERA, 5.08 SIERA, 1.69 WHIP, and a dreadfully low eight percent K-BB ratio.
The right-hander faces one of MLB's best offenses in the Dodgers. In any other season, Freddie Freeman would be in the discussion for NL MVP, but even with hitting .333/.412/.568 with 28 homers and 23 stolen bases, he will likely finish third. After a rough late spring/early summer, James Outman has looked fantastic as of late, hitting .289/.347/.600 with four homers and nine runs scored since September 15.
While Jason Heyward has been on the struggle bus recently, this pitching matchup in Coors Field is too tantalizing not to take. On the season, the veteran outfielder is hitting .270/.343/.481 with 15 homers and 40 RBI across 365 plate appearances.
Cubs (Marcus Stroman) vs. Braves
The Cubs are slumping at the wrong time and their playoff chances hang in the balance. However, they face the best offense in the Braves before packing their bags to face NL Central foe Milwaukee starting Friday.
The Cubs will go with a tandem pitching approach, with Marcus Stroman used as a opener with Javier Assad most likely coming in after him. Matt Olson hasn’t smashed a homer in five games, so it feels like the slugger is due for one Thursday. The prices on the Braves hitters are steep but adding Michael Harris II and Orlando Arcia to the back half of your roster is an excellent way to get into the pristine Braves lineup.
The best options for your MLB lineup construction
In the penultimate Thursday slate of the season, we have a relatively large slate with seven matchups.
There isn’t rain in the forecast at any of the home stadiums.
Max Fried - His start was pushed to Thursday after he began to develop a hotspot on his pitching hand. The team hasn’t announced if the hot spot is gone entirely so don’t be surprised if they yank him out of the game earlier than expected.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - He was scratched from Wednesday’s game with right knee discomfort and is set to undergo an MRI so the team can get a better idea of his prognosis. He is considered day-to-day until we learn more.
Everson Pereira - Everson Pereira has missed the last five games due to a low-grade hamstring strain. He has avoided the injured list so far but he would be a risky player to rely on Thursday night.
DJ Stewart - Stewart was scratched from Wednesday’s contest with a wrist injury. We should find out more about his status later in the day on Thursday.
Javier Báez - Báez has missed the past two contests with lower back tightness. There is a chance he is ready to go on Thursday.
Brandon Crawford - Crawford was removed from Wednesday’s game with right hamstring tightness. Tyler Fitzgerald is expected to be added to the active roster, so we should expect the veteran shortstop to miss some time.
Grayson Rodriguez ($8,000 DK/ $9,000 FD) The 23-year-old righthander has had a superb second half of the season and he will face the Guardians on the road Thursday. Since July 17, Rodriguez has a 2.5 ERA, 2.91 FIP, 1.06 WHIP, and 16.5 K/BB ratio. His 111.1 IP this season is way above his 75 IP he pitched last season. It isn’t likely that the Orioles will cap his innings this season as they just punched their card to the playoffs for the first time since 2016.
Tarik Skubal The lefty has been outstanding since he returned from the injured list this summer. He has a 3.25 ERA, 2.8 SIERA, 0.97 WHIP, and 25.9 K/BB ratio over 69 1/3 innings. His fastball velocity is up around one MPH and he gets to face the Athletics in Oakland on Thursday night.
His price ($9,600 DK/ $10,300 FD) seems like a great price point for a pitcher of his caliber facing one of the worst offenses in recent memory.
David Peterson has had a mostly down season this year, posting a 5.22 ERA overall but an out of the world 7.35 ERA on the road this season. The Phillies are just coming off a wild and exciting series against the Braves and Nick Castellanos ($4,800 DK/ $3,500 FD) could be looking to feast on Thursday. The 31-year-old is hitting lefties extremely well, posting a .323/.369/.557 with an impressive 1.151 OPS against southpaws at home.
Giants (Kyle Harrison) vs. Dodgers
Kyle Harrison is expected to start for the Giants Thursday evening and while it is difficult to create a stack of Dodgers hitters, it can be done!
J.D. Martinez has been absolutely on fire since he returned from the injured list. The veteran designated hitter is hitting .395/.455/.737 with four homers and 14 RBI since September 8.
Amed Rosario doesn’t play often but he did start against the last southpaw the Dodgers faced. The 27-year-old is hitting much better against lefties, posting a .781 OPS with just a 14 percent strikeout rate.
Then there is Freddie Freeman. What is there to say? Whenever you have enough money to add Freeman to your DFS lineup, you are usually in for a good night!
Cubs vs. Pirates (Johan Oviedo)
Johan Oviedo has had an interesting season. It seems he either does really well (complete game shutout vs Kansas City on August 28) or very bad (3 2/3 IP with five hits and three earned runs against the Cardinals on September 3.
The Cubs have been on a bit of a skid as they look to lock down a spot in the playoffs. Nico Hoerner has had a bit of a breakout season this year, hitting .286/.346/.30 with nine home runs and 41 stolen bases.
It will be a tall task to swipe a base against Oviedo and Endy Rodriguez, but Hoerner has the speed to get it done. Ian Happ has a 925 OPS against right-handers on the road and his price point is much better than Cody Bellinger’s price.
Seiya Suzuki has been a man on a mission in the second half, hitting .305/.363/.568 and it doesn’t seem like many of the popular DFS sites have got on to that fact.
All you need to know about your lineup construction
As par for the course, Thursday’s slate is small -- four games, with the Yankees vs. Red Sox available for DraftKings in the second half of their doubleheader.
There is a chance of showers in the Denver area, but nothing seems like a washout. The other games should be good to go.
Ryan Mountcastle, Orioles 1B -- Mountcastle injured his shoulder at the plate Wednesday and was removed in the third inning. He is set to undergo imaging prior to Thursday’s pivotal contest against the Rays. Heston Kjerstad is expected to be called up from Triple-A Norfolk so it appears Mountcastle will be unavailable.
Kevin Gausman, Blue Jays RHP – Gausman’s second half production has been more up and down than his first. Since August 3, Gausman has a 3.86 ERA, 20 percent K/BB ratio, and a 3-3 record. He has only pitched into seven or more innings twice and has stumbled against the Nationals and Rockies. He faces a tough matchup against the Rangers in a must-win game and his price point ($11,000 DK/ $10,300 FD) is a bit too high for my tastes.
Logan Webb, Giants RHP – Webb and the Giants make the trek up the mountains to face the Rockies at Coors Field. It seems odd to recommend a pitcher in Denver but the Rockies offense has been horrendous over the late month --.250/.319/.412 with an 83 wRC. That’s the fifth-worst offense in baseball over that time span.
Webb has been as reliable as they come, with a 3.40 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, and 3.21 SIERA to pair with a 19 percent K/BB ratio. He just surpassed his 2022 innings total and Giants manager Gabr Kapler lets him go deep into the game, if the 26-year-old is pitching well.
José Ureña is the pitcher I am targeting. His 8.46 ERA, 6.62 SIERA, and 2.10 WHIP is too juicy to pass up. Max Kepler has been on fire since the All-Star break, hitting .299/.365/.561 with 10 of his 22 homers over that span. Due to his production, he has been moved up to hitting cleanup and is sandwiched in the middle of Royce Lewis and Carlos Correa.
Ranger (Nathan Eovaldi) vs. Blue Jays:
Since returning from the injured list, Eovaldi hasn’t gone more than 2 1/3 innings and it is still up in the air if he is fully healthy. Springer is hitting .275/.368/.484 with five homers over the last 30 days and should be able to get to either Eovaldi or the Rangers bullpen.
Schneider has taken the majors by storm, and not because of his 1970s Cop movie mustache. He has been the best hitter on the Blue Jays over the last month, hitting .333/.467/.817 with six homers across 75 plate appearances. Since Danny Jansen’s unfortunate injury, Alejandro Kirk has received the bulk of the playing time behind the dish and could pay off at a lower price point.
Twins vs. White Sox (José Ureña)
Ureña has been dreadful, and the Twins should be able to capitalize on the Southside of Chicago. Kirilloff returned from the injured list last week and has hit extremely well against right-handers. Thursday could be the night he breaks out of his funk.
Castro also recently returned to the Twins starting lineup. He's had an amazing first season with the Twins this year, hitting .252/.329/.400 with seven homers and 31 stolen bases. He typically hits around seventh in the batting order but could provide points juice at a low price point.
Shelly Verougstraete breaks down which pitchers to start, which to exploit and some top stacks for Sept. 7.
The first two games on the slate are in domes so we are all good there. The other four game have no inclement weather in sight, so it is smooth sailing all around.
Taylor Walls – Groin – Walls was available off the bench Wednesday and is expected to be in the Rays starting nine Thursday but double check before adding him.
Shohei Ohtani – Oblique – Ohtani has missed the entire week after tweaking his oblique in batting practice Monday. With everything going on with him and the team, don’t be surprised if he is out again Thursday.
DK-FD
Luis Castillo is the highest pitcher on the slate, and he faces the Rays in Tampa Bay. On the season, Castillo has a 3.68 SIERA, 1.03 WHIP and a 27 percent strikeout rate. When he debuted with the Reds, he was a groundball pitcher, but his 39 percent groundball rate this season is easily the lowest of his career. He faces off against fifth best offense over the past 30 days, but he is backed by the second-best offense, so he could still pick up a win.
Ryan Pepiot has looked great since returning from injury last month. He has a1.29 ERA but his 3.23 SIERA shows that his performance so far has been a bitoverstate. That being said, he is going up against the Marlins, which have beena below league average offense over the last 30 days. The Marlins won the firsttwo games of series and it seems pretty improbable that the Dodgers will beswept.
Adam Wainwright is the pitcher I’m targeting in this slate. The veteran right-hander has an 8.10 ERA to go along with an inflated 5.85 SIERA and putrid 11 percent strikeout rate. Marcell Ozuna ($4,800 DK/ $3,800 FD) has a .272 batting average against righties at home and his price point is too good to pass up.
Diamondbacks (Ryne Nelson) vs. Cubs:
DK-FD
Ryne Nelson is returning to the Diamondbacks rotation Thursday, just ahead of a big series against the Cubs. Seiya Suzuki’s price is one to bounce on as the Cubs outfielder is hitting .367/.411/.735 with seven homers over the past 30 days. Cody Bellinger’s resurgent season will surely payoff in the offseason when he signs a large contract in free agency but he can also help you in tonight’s slate. He is hitting .287/.310/.565 over the past month.
Mariners vs Rays (Zack Littell)
DK-FD
Zack Littell's season has been a great story. He effortlessly moved from the bullpen to the rotation once the injury bug took most of the Rays rotation. However, he faces one of the best offenses over the past month.
After a disappointing start to the season, the fantasy superstar that is Julio Rodríguez has blossomed in the second half of the season and has moved back into discussion for a top five round draft next season. The price is steep, but is .389/.421/.731 slash line over the past month is hard to ignore.
To go a cheaper route, Mike Ford has been destroying right-handed pitching since he landed in Seattle. Over the past month, he is hitting .245/.385/.547 with five homers and could easy go deep in the Trop Thursday evening.
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Get recommendations for your Thursday lineup
Weather Report:
There are only three games on the slate today and none should be impacted by precipitation.
Injury Report:
Jorge Soler - Hip - He left Tuesday’s contest against the Rays with right hip tightness. He is considered day-to-day and could be ready to go against the Nationals.
Lane Thomas - Back - He was lifted prior to the seventh inning due to back soreness. It doesn’t sound serious but there is a chance he sits out Thursday.
Mitch Haniger - Rest - Haniger returned from the injured list on Tuesday and sat out against a righty but the team said it was only due to rest. He should be ready to go on Thursday.
Starting Pitchers (DK-FD)
Spencer Strider: 12,500-12,000
Lance Lynn: 8,800-9,500
Braxton Garrett: 8,200-8,700
Pedro Avila: 6,300-6,700
Joan Adon: 5,400-6,400
Sean Manaea: 5,000-7,300
Spencer Strider is the highest-priced pitcher for the slate, which shouldn’t be surprising. He easily leads the slate with a 2.75 SIERA, 1.06 WHIP, and 38 percent strikeout rate. His 1.06 HR/9 is the highest of his career, without taking the two game appearance in the majors late in 2021 into account. His 60 percent HR/Barrel rate is above league average, which indicates that he could be getting a bit unlucky with the long ball. He faces a tough team in the Dodgers which makes the 12K+ price tag a bit steep.
Strider gets to go toe-to-toe with Lance Lynn in the last game in the slate on Tuesday. To say that Lynn has had an up-and-down season is a bit of an understatement. Lynn has a 3.99 SIERA, 1.38 WHIP, and 26 percent strikeout rate on the season but most of the damage was done while he was a member of the Chicago White Sox. Since joining the Dodgers, he has a 4.30 SIERA, 1.06 WHIP, and 21 percent strikeout rate. He faces a very tough task of facing the Braves in Dodgers Stadium. Since both of these pitchers face uphill battles, going cheap on the pitching while loading up on bats, could work tonight.
Braxton Garrett gets to face the Nationals for the second game in a row. Last time out, he allowed three runs over six innings while only picking up three strikeouts. This time around, he will be in the Nationals home ballpark, which has been below league average when it comes to the long ball, especially with the forecast projecting the winds to be blowing into the ballpark.
Batter to Target
Joan Adon is a pitcher that could be easily exploited in this small slate. His 4.44 SIERA is easily the worst of the group ad Nationals Park is a bit hitter-friendly this season. While the Marlins hitters have struggled in the second of the season Jake Burger ($4,100 on DK and $3,000 on FanDuel) could be an option for fantasy managers looking some cheap power.
Stack Attack
Marlins (Braxton Garrett) vs. Nationals:
DK-FD
Lane Thomas: 4,900-3,200
Keibert Ruiz: 4,000-2,600
Joey Meneses: 4,400-2,700
If Lane Thomas is ready to go on Thursday, he is a must add. The 28-year-old is hitting .346/.393/.591 with eight homers and nine stolen bases against southpaws this season. Ruiz and Meneses also have been above league average against left-handed pitching while hitting towards the top of the Nationals lineup.
Giants (Manaea) vs. Padres:
DK-FD
Ha-Seong Kim: 4,900-3,100
Gary Sanchez: 3,800-2,600
Garrett Cooper: 2,900-2,400
Trent Grisham: 2,800-2,500
The Giants haven’t officially named a starter for Thursday’s contest against the Padres but Sean Manaea figures to fill in as the bulk reliever. Ha-Seong Kim has been out of his mind in the second half of the season, while posting a season long line of .329/.413/.579 with eight homers and ten stolen bases against left-handed pitching. Sánchez and Grisham have also hit above league average against lefties and can be add at some really low prices. Cooper has moved up to sixth in the Padres batting order after Jake Cronenworth landed on the injured list with a fractured wrist. If the Padres bats come to life at the top of the order, you could pick up some RBIs at a considerably low price point.
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