Stuart Durst/MonotoneFootbal is a an NFL/NBA handicapper with a focus on the player prop markets. When he’s not on the air for Sportstopia, you can find him sharing plays on Pass The Prop, arguing with anonymous Eagles fans on the internet, or playing pickup basketball at his local YMCA.
'Monotone' lays out his top TD parlays for Week 5
After a successful week of longshots, check out my favorite touchdown picks of the week!
Going with a same game parlay in the Eagles-Rams game (4:05 p.m. ET Sunday). There is already nice value here, with this being priced at +238 on DraftKings. Hurts and Kupp are their team’s best redzone weapons, and the total of this game is currently set at 50.5.
Hurts, the king of the tush push, has all the goal line carries on lockdown and should have plenty of chances with an implied team total higher than four touchdowns.
This is also a good price for Kupp in his return. When healthy, he has been a redzone demon. The Rams are expected to be trailing, and QB Matthew Stafford will throw a lot against the Eagles’ strong run defense. They are especially weak against the slot, and that’s where Kupp will do a lot of his work.
Reports out of LA are that Kupp won’t be limited. I like his chances in a high-octane game.
Rookie Achane has six touchdowns over his last two games, showing next-level efficiency. He’s also out-snapped fellow Dolphin RB Raheem Mostert in back-to-back weeks, posting a 60-percentr snap rate to Mostert’s 44 percent last week.
The Dolphins are 12-point favorites against a miserable Giants defense, and we’ve really seen Achane blossom in the redzone. Miami had plenty of creative uses for him, and we’ve seen this Dolphins offense run up the score before (ask the Broncos about that).
Additionally, DraftKings has Achane priced much differently than the rest of the market, with his 1+ touchdown currently at +105 vs -125 to -175 everywhere else. For 2+ touchdowns, the next best price is +450, showing inherent value on these numbers.
I like targeting longshot touchdown scorers in a game where Colts QB Anthony Richardson will be tasked with beating the Titans through the air. Tennessee’s excellent rush defense will focus on limiting RB Jonathan Taylor and thereby testing Richardson’s passing.
AR-15 has been inconsistent, but he’s also made very nice downfield throws. Pierce will get an opportunity or two downfield, and I like taking that chance against a defense struggling with explosive plays.
Granson really popped last game. He led the Colts TE group in snaps and was consistently involved on third downs. Richardson likes keying in on his tight ends, and Indy will be forced into more of a pass heavy game script.
Richardson will have a boom or bust game; I want some exposure if he can take advantage of this bad pass defense.
'Monotone' details his top PrizePicks/Underdog plays
'Monotone' gives his top four picks for PrizePicks and Underdog for Week 5 of the NFL season on Sunday.
Game: Giants at Dolphins, 1 p.m. ET Sunday
Robinson is over in both of his games, going from only 11 snaps in his return to finishing second in WR routes for the Giants last week. He’s clearly going to be a focal point in this mediocre offense, and last week’s healthy usage proved it.
Miami is very susceptible over the middle, in part due to their deep safety looks, and that’s where Robinson operates. The Dolphins have allowed the seventh-most slot targets this season.
Wan’Dale’s gadget/slot usage is perfect with a weak offensive line. His low ADOT means we don’t need to depend on them, He should rack up plenty of manufactured touches.
I expect the Giants to be trailing, given the 12-point spread. When forced into a passing game script, I like targeting receivers that are running these shallow routes to capitalize against the deep-safety coverages they should be facing.
Game: Titans at Colts, 1 p.m. ET Sunday
I expect Westbrook-Ikhine to keep stepping up with the Treylon Burks injured. That leaves DeAndre Hopkins as the only legit target, with NWI being the WR2 again.
Titans coach Mike Vrabel and quarterback Ryan Tannehill have both shown to trust NWI over the past couple seasons, and the Titans will need to pass against a strong Colts defensive line that will gear up to stop Derrick Henry.
NWI posted a 5-54-1 line in this same situation last game, and I’m expecting another 6-plus target game. This unit is not strong, and we love targeting guys without much target competition. Finally, it’s a homecoming game as he played his college ball in Indiana.
Game: Panthers at Lions, 1 p.m. ET Sunday
Based on price alone, Underdog is offering very good value here. This is priced between -160 and -205 on most sportsbooks, making this play stick out.
We saw the Lions dominate the redzone on the ground with Jamaal Williams scoring 17 touchdowns last season, and Montgomery is already recreating that magic in the same role.
Promising Detroit rookie Jahmyr Gibbs has been a no-show in the red zone, and I expect Monty to continue to coast in a good matchup. He’s scored a touchdown in every game this season, and I loved how much volume he had last week despite immediately coming back from injury and not practicing all week.
Game: Chiefs at Vikings, 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday
Finally, we go to the highest total game of the week. These teams are top-5 in pass rate over expectation, and that should generate a fast-paced game with plenty of action.
The Chiefs’ secondary has been better than expected, and Vikings WR Justin Jefferson should see plenty of safety help over the top. I think Hockenson will continue to stack up those dependable targets as the safety blanket, especially in the 2-minute drill.
Minnesota will likely be playing from behind in this one, and Hockenson is the most consistent target in this offense. He cleared this target number in three of four games, with his one miss coming in a slow-paced game against Carolina with very minimal offense.
'Monotone' gives you his top TD props
I expected Chase to be -110 across the board, so I’m very surprised to see +125 on FanDuel. Chase currently leads the league in WR targets without a touchdown, and I think that changes Sunday. He’s also a good bet for 100+ receiving yards and a touchdown against one of the biggest pass funnels in the league. The Titans' rush defense is in the top five in success rate this year, and I don’t think Joe Mixon is going to be the guy to change that. There should be a steady dose of targets for Burrow's top target.
We constantly see Josh Allen’s rushing attempts increase in competitive games, and that’s been backed up by his quotes in the media on running in important vs. unimportant situations. This Dolphins matchup profiles as one of the highest-scoring of the season, and the Bills should have plenty of redzone opportunities. While James Cook has been a good addition to the team, the smaller back doesn’t profile as much of a goal line back. I expect Allen to primarily operate as their red zone rushing option, and he also has scramble potential outside of the red zone with those Dolphins deep safety looks.
We cashed Anthony Richardson in this very article when he scored two touchdowns before going down with an injury before halftime. He’s back in the lineup, and I’m surprised we’re getting this prop at plus money. Richardson will continue to be the No. 1 goal line option, even with Zack Moss playing better than Deon Jackson. There is a reason that Cam Newton and Josh Allen are top-5 in goal-line efficiency in the last 25 years; it’s a very hard play to stop. Richardson is more athletic than both of those quarterbacks, and I expect him to continue to be the focus of all the Colts' goal-line packages.
This Denver/Chicago game is going to be one of the more exciting games of the week between two bottom feeders on the defensive side of the ball. I think we will have plenty of scoring opportunities in this one, and the RB has already been involved in the red zone, scoring a first quarter touchdown against the Commanders. He’s someone that made waves in training camp and has earned touches this week. I like taking my chances at +800.
Mims has been the most impressive offensive player on the Broncos, despite only playing limited snaps. Rumors out of Denver are heavily implying he will be more involved this week, and he gets an amazing matchup. I think this will end up being Denver's most impressive offensive performance, and getting these good prices on some of the lesser-known players is a good angle. Mims has also had some huge plays on special teams, and I’ll always take the added opportunities. Asking a big play player to make a big play here!
Finally, another backup tight end longshot after cashing last week! Smith had surprising usage last week, and I think we might see that again. Pitts doesn't look healthy at all on film and is also running tougher downfield routes. Smith has recorded more than a 70% route participation in back-to-back weeks and has some solid yards after catch upside. Jacksonville is a pass funnel which is bottom-5 in fantasy points against the tight end position. I like the sneaky longshot here.
Top PrizePicks and Underdog choices for Week 4
We start with a combo between two undervalued tight ends. While neither are the most exciting names in the world, I see plenty of value in these props.
Commanders quarterback Sam Howell has been locked into the tight end position since the start of the preseason, and Logan Thomas is 2/2 on this number already. While he got injured in the Denver game, he’s practiced this week and should be good to go.
Washington will have trouble establishing the run with their weak offensive line going against a top-tier Eagles D-Line, which should lead to more passing. With their strong secondary, the Eagles notoriously funnel targets over the middle, leading to tight ends balling out. They have a very strong secondary, but the linebackers and safeties can be exploited over the middle.
The Vikings’ T.J. Hockenson posted 66 yards, while the Chargers’ Hunter Henry and the Patriots’ Mike Gesicki had 56 and 38 in Week 1. The Bucs’ Cade Otton had 16 last week but had a drop and some penalty problems. I promise you Howell will drop back more than 25 times this week as well.
Dawson Knox is under the radar with rookie TE Dalton Kincaid, who hasn’t gotten off to the strongest start. Knox has proved to be a reliable weapon for Josh Allen over the last couple years, and he has five red zone targets (T5).
I expect both tight ends to be used interchangeably against the Dolphins, but Knox has been running more high-value routes and been more efficient. He’s over this number in 2/3 games, with his one miss coming against the Commanders. He had three targets, but the Bills were dominating so much that the game got out of hand.
This will be a high-scoring matchup against the best offense in football. Miami DC Vic Fangio is known for those deep cover-2 safety looks, which should lead Allen to check down more than usual. I have Knox and Kincaid both clearing four receptions in this one, but I see more value in Knox.
Now we’re going back to Underdog Rivals, for some head-to-head props!
Zack Moss has been sneaky impressive, and I expect that to continue in Week 4. Even in a rough matchup with backup quarterback Shane Steichen, he dominated a top-10 EPA defense (Houston Texans) and helped his team secure the win. He’s now posted 30-122-0 and 18-88-2 in his two starts since the Colts let go of Deon Jackson.
On the other side, Kyren Williams has ranked in the bottom 5 in RYOE since taking over the job. McVay mentioned wanting to lessen his workload in interviews this week, and it is unlikely that his on-the-field performance is changing his mind.
People won’t like this one, but I like the mismatch in opportunities. We’re seeing Bijan in a fairly even split, coming off an 11-carry game, while Etienne is locked into a 15+ carry role, averaging 16 on the season.
There is no denying Bijan is extremely talented, but I think the wrong player is favored in this matchup. The Jaguars will be one of the bigger pass funnels this year, and I think they hold up well on the ground. I’m expecting a bounce back from the Jacksonville offense, which means a favorable game script for Etienne.
'Monotone' gives his top TD props for Week 3
Week 3 is upon us, and with that another chance for ball spikes and celebrations in the end zone. Here are my top choices for TD props for this weekend's NFL action.
Joshua Kelley is someone I like targeting for a touchdown, especially considering the 54-point total in the Chargers-Vikings game. We have two of the worst defenses in the league facing off against each other, and without Chargers RB Austin Ekeler, Kelley will have a large chunk of the opportunities.
People were low on Kelley last week, but the Titans have one of the best run defenses in the league and one of the worst pass defenses. I expect a more balanced attack against the Vikings, with plenty of opportunities.
Travis Etienne Jr. has a good chance to get into the end zone. The Texans allowed four rushing touchdowns to the Colts last weekend and three to the Ravens RBs in Week 1. ETN is in line for 15+ carries, and the Jaguars are likely to be in a rush-heavy gamescript for most of this one. With an implied team total of over three touchdowns, and no Christian Kirk, ETN should see 3+ red zone carries.
Speaking of positive game script, Kenneth Walker III finds himself in another very intriguing matchup – Panthers at Seahawks. While there were questions about how much of the workload he would handle before the season started, he’s clearly shown to be the workhorse back.
Walker has two touchdowns, with 16 and 18 total touches in the first two weeks. This should be the best matchup he’s had yet, and I expect him to capitalize on it.
I think a lot of NFL fans are very curious to see how Fields performs against the Chiefs after a very rough start to the season. With the comments made in the media, it seems he’s interested in diverting back to the playstyle we saw from him last season.
I’m expecting more designed runs and more carries. While I don’t have confidence in this offense, I do have confidence in this defense getting torn apart by the Chiefs. KC QB Patrick Mahomes will have a lot of success, which should generate a lot of garbage time chances.
We’ve seen Fields break a lot of big plays, but he should also be a huge part of the the redzone playbook when given the chance.
Parham is not a household name, but the former XFL legend has carved out a strong red zone role for the Chargers. He’s expanded that even more this season, playing more snaps and running more routes than Gerald Everett last week. This resulted in two red zone targets for the mega-sized tight end. Now that we have an incredibly high-scoring matchup (Chargers at Vikings), we should have our chances here.
Great PrizePicks/Underdog plays for Week 3
Week 3 is here, and we’ve spotted plenty of value plays for the weekend. Every single week, I’ll be placing an Underdog/PrizePicks entry and breaking down each prop with analysis and key stats that will help you make money. And I will be using the Sportstopia DFS Optimizer to guide my research, which you can sign up for here!
Robinson receiving yards was one of my favorite plays last week, and I’m surprised we’re still getting such a reasonable number here. Since the preseason started, Washington offensive coordinator Eric Bienemy has been clear that Robinson needed to catch more passes, simply to make the offense less predictable.
Through the preseason, we saw that start to materialize, with new and more creative usage. Through the first two weeks of the regular season, it’s been even better than expected, with Robinson dominating total RB opportunities.
Robinson is the workhorse back for this team, and even if they fall in a more negative game situation, I expect him to succeed regardless. Last week, Washington struggled early but came back in part due to running the ball with Robinson and working off play-action. He cashed this number last game with 42 yards, and I’m expecting 2-3 catches in this one.
I love this number for Henry, especially considering he’s cashed it in back-to-back weeks. Henry was more involved in the screen game last week, and while he doesn’t run a lot of routes, he’s highly efficient on a per-touch basis. Betting on such a low number for one of the best players is fun, because we only need one play to break this.
The logic here is quite simple: the Browns’ defense is really good, and Titans QB Ryan Tannehill must get the ball out fast. Henry is the most explosive player on this offense, and if the traditional run game is having trouble getting going, they are going to find other creative ways to get their star player involved.
The Browns get pressure at the highest rate in football, and Tannehill is traditionally one of the worst QB’s under pressure via success rate. I expect them to struggle early, and Henry will have 2-3 screen opportunities alone.
While the Ravens are traditionally run heavy, OC Todd Monken’s new lead system will open things up and air it out more. We’ve already seen early returns on that, and I expect it to continue against a pass-funnel Colts team.
While their defensive line is strong, the secondary is not. Stephon Gilmore left in the offseason, and their best corner is Kenny Moore. This is not a strong pass defense, and with Ravens RB J.K. Dobbins out, I see more red zone pass attempts.
Flowers had multiple plays schemed up for him in the red zone in Week 2, and Andrews has always been Lamar’s favorite redzone target. I expect them to have 3–4 opportunities here and I like the chances.
Through two games, Collins has 20 targets with a 14.8 ADOT. He’s recorded 80 and 146 receiving yards in those two matchups, and it looks like he’s on the precipice of a breakout season. He’s posted a 20%+ target share in six straight games, and this new offense with CJ Stroud is more pass-heavy than we initially anticipated.
The Jaguars offense may be good, but their defense hasn’t been strong. This game has sneaky offensive upside, but even in a lower-scoring game, we saw two receivers, Skyy Moore and Kadarius Toney, clear 60+ yards. In the first game, we saw Michael Pittman clear this number with 87 yards on 11 targets. I expect WR1’s to continue to have success against the Jaguars.
'Monotone' gives his TD parlay picks for Week 2
Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson was one of my favorite targets to score a touchdown this week, and I’m surprised we’re getting him at +190 considering the rookie hype. This guy is an insane athlete: 6’4, 250, with 4.4 40-yard dash and insane advanced metrics.
Even if you don’t believe in his ability as a passer, he is the clear goal line back in this offense. Guys like Jalen Hurts and Lamar Jackson are regularly priced at -110, despite having a plethora of options around them, I promise you Richardson will find himself in that range sooner rather than later.
One of my favorite parts about this prop is the complete and utter lack of goal-line competition. Since they decided not to pay their best offense offensive player, the Colts had one of the least efficient ground games of the week, led by Deon Jackson.
In that game, Richardson scored his first NFL touchdown, with an impressive four redzone carries. You really don’t see that kind of volume in a rookie’s first game, and I expect it to continue given the Colts lack of secondary options.
Mike Williams is another one of my favorite touchdown targets. I loved how involved he was early in the Chargers game, even converting on two screen passes despite his usual deep ball usage (which he came through on later as well).
Playing against the famous Fangio cover-2 isn’t great for a player like Williams, but now he gets the Titans who allowed the most receiving yards and explosive plays to wide receivers last year. That looked to stay pretty consistent in last week’s disaster of a football game.
He has the same alpha quality that I talked about in a guy like AJ Brown/DK Metcalf, where they can catch those 50/50 balls at such a high rate AND they are targets both inside and outside the redzone.
Williams appears healthy and good to go, I think we are getting value on this line! While I’m not depending on it; Ekeler being limited or injured could also really help this play given his redzone prowess.
*This parlay will have better odds when FD posts Williams’ touchdown number, I tried waiting for it to become available but nothing yet!
Finally, I’ll be talking about a wide receiver who laid a fat goose egg this week, Bengals receiver Tee Higgins. Despite the bad numbers on paper, he still did finish the week top 5 in air yards, just missing on a couple completions thanks to a terrible outing from franchise QB Joe Burrow.
This is simply a bet on the offense turning it around, especially against a Ravens team that lost their starting safety last week. I’m expecting a bounce back from Burrow, and Higgins possesses the same dominant redzone abilities that I’m always looking for.
I’ll take one of the best contested catch receivers in the league, in a game that should have some sneaky offense.
After defending him all week, it’s time to put my money where my mouth is and get some Kadarius Toney action in! While Travis Kelce is the clear pick in the Chiefs’ offense, I think Toney really benefits from having that elite weapon back in the lineup.
Toney has never had amazing hands, but you do have to be getting consistently open to be able to make that many drops. I have feeling we see him bounce back strong this week.
One thing I love about Andy Reid is his redzone creativity, and a gadget player like Toney can give defenses lots of problems. He’s one of the few WR’s that I really wouldn’t be surprised to see score a rushing touchdown; and I think his versatility gives him some value here.
Toney is a risky play, so I’m avoiding him for parlays, but I think this number presents some value in a game with plenty of shootout potential.
While I think the other side of this is going to be much more popular, I think there is value on both sides. Two of the best defenses squaring off head-to-head, including a Jets side coming off a three in creation game.
Dak Prescott led the league in interceptions last season, and we haven’t seen him tested in a competitive game this year. If the Jets win, they need to overperform on special teams and defense, and I think this Longshot is worth a sprinkle!
'Monotone' breaks down this weekend's pick 'ems
Week 2 is here, and we’ve spotted plenty of value plays for the weekend. Every single week, I’ll be placing an Underdog/PrizePicks entry and breaking down each prop with analysis and key stats that will help you make money. Additionally, I will be using the Sportstopia DFS Optimizer to guide my research, which you can sign up for here!
Edmunds didn’t have the best "real-life" debut, but from a fantasy/betting perspective, he showed everything you want to see. He was one of the Bears big offseason additions, a versatile linebacker with a track record of success on the Bills. His versatility was a big selling point in the contract, and that’s what we’re looking to target here today.
Via PFF, he was one of the lowest-graded Bears in Week 1, but he still recorded eight total tackles + assist in the loss. Even with a rough showing, his large congrats and high snap share give me confidence that he will be right back out there this week.
What really stands out is the matchup, going up against checkdown King Baker Mayfield. For these linebacker tackle props, running back checkdowns and low ADOT targets are ideal, and Mayfield has constantly shown an inability to move the ball down the field outside of checkdowns.
Rewatching last week's victory against the Vikings, they only started to win when they threw away the "real QB playbook" and went into the "is that Colt McCoy playbook" instead.
If you thought linebackers were funky, things are about to get even crazier. While I can’t lie and say I’m some sort of expert in the special teams department, I see value in this play!
When evaluating a market like this, I obviously want high-volume punters, bad offensive teams, and non-aggressive head coaches that won’t push it on risky fourth downs. I think the Buccaneers fit the bill for all of these criteria.
Additionally, when you look at the market, a majority of teams that came into the season with a sub-500 win total, you’ll notice almost all of their punters are 4.5 or 5, giving us a little unwarranted cushion based on an opening week victory.
Camarda cleared this number in the team's opening victory, despite going against one of the worst defenses in the league. He had six punts despite the team scoring 20 points on the Vikings, which should give us confidence considering the Bears defense isn’t anything to be super concerned about.
The edge I give the Bears over the Vikings is the linebacker core, which will be very important in limiting a checkdown merchant like Baker Mayfield.
Camarda averaged 4.7 punts per game last season, with the best quarterback of all time at the helm, and all we need this guy to do is go over his season average with Baker Mayfield? Sign me up!
Now let’s leave that over on the PrizePicks and move over to underdog and play some head to head matchups.
While the Seattle secondary didn’t look great last week, I expect them to fully key in on Amon Ra. They still have Woolen on the outside, and with the lack of secondary receivers, I would expect plenty of safety attention all game long.
On the other side, we have a Lions team that loves man coverage, and with Emmanuel Mosley ruled out once again, I feel confident in DK on the outside. We saw the Chiefs wide receivers get open plenty last week; they just weren’t actually able to convert on those catches.
I think the Lions may be a bit overrated, and the Seahawks come out aggressive in this one.
After a rough Week 1 performance, Josh Allen should strongly bounce back. Like I talked about on the Thursday DFS show, Allen will be my most popular starting point this week.
One of the many reasons I’ve loved betting on the Bills is they’ve remained top eight in PROE (pass rate over expectation) in neutral and positive game scripts, meaning they continue to throw the ball when they are winning AND losing.
They understand their strengths and weaknesses, and I’m expecting a full-on bounceback.
On the other side you have Jimmy G, who might be down Jakobi Meters, who led the team in targets in Week 1. We saw Breece Hall’s explosive rushing front and center on primetime, and I expect the Raiders to attack in a similar manner with Josh Jacobs.
The Raiders consistently ran the ball when they were behind last year, and now have a downgrade at quarterback. I think Allen could easily clear Jimmy G by 50+ yards.
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