Stuart Durst/MonotoneFootbal is a an NFL/NBA handicapper with a focus on the player prop markets. When he’s not on the air for Sportstopia, you can find him sharing plays on Pass The Prop, arguing with anonymous Eagles fans on the internet, or playing pickup basketball at his local YMCA.
Stu "Monotone" Durst breaks down his favorite Anytime TD Parlay of the week and looks at a couple longshots that could hit paydirt.
Every week I’ll be examining the touchdown market, and putting together a parlay of my favorite selections. Along the way, you’ll also get a couple longshot selections that are worth some beer money. Week 1 normally has pretty efficient pricing in this market, but I’m expecting to find some great value this season.
Antonio Gibson has been one of my favorite touchdown looks all week. While he and Brian Robinson will both compete for those red zone angles, I think there is room for everyone to score! Robinson profiles as the higher-volume rusher, but even last year, when Gibson was bordering on irrelevancy, he managed to be a red zone threat despite the low overall volume. Now combine that with how Eric Bieniemy used McKinnon in the red zone last year, and I’m feeling pretty good about Gibson's chances to be heavily involved. He has always been very efficient in the red zone, and his receiving + rushing abilities open up the playbook and make the defense respect his receiving chops.
A.J. Brown is always a player I like targeting, and I think he profiles to dominate this weekend. While Hurts is usually the only Eagle I focus on in the red zone, I think the Patriots' pass-rushing core with Judon/Uche represents a little more of a unique matchup, with more speed than any other pass-rushing LB core in the league. Judon led the league in sacks on scrambles, while Uche finished 5th. They are in a better place than most to contain Hurts. Additionally, coaches have had a whole season to game plan against the QB sneak play, and I would hope Coach Bill has a plan for that. Brown has dominant numbers against man coverage, and the Patriots played the third-most man coverage snaps last season. I always express the importance of WRs having the capability to score both inside and outside of the redzone, and we know Brown is one of the few guys who can do both at a high level.
Editor's Note: Place your DFS lineups with confidence with Fantasy Sports Logic's Contrarian Edge Optimizer. This incredibly robust tool features projections from several industry leaders, but also blends them together in a separate proprietary set of projections. Take a 7-day test drive for just $1 and check out features like Contrarian Mode, Stack Attack, upload custom projections and much more!
J.K. Dobbins is another target I like on Sunday, and I’m surprised he’s priced above even money across the board. This is one of those situations where Baltimore should dominate. Not only were the Texans unimpressive in the preseason, and they still have a number of question marks around who is even starting. Baltimore is the heaviest favorite on the board and will be the most popular survivor selection. While I'm a big fan of Gus Edwards, JK Dobbins is the clear starter for this lineup. The Ravens are expected to throw a lot this season, but once we get in the red zone, I expect a heavy dose of Dobbins. Working with one of the highest implied team totals on the slate doesn’t hurt; we will have plenty of opportunities.
Week 1 TD Parlay: Antonio Gibson/AJ Brown/JK Dobbins +1430 DK
Ingold became the second-highest paid fullback in the league and is another one of my longshot selections. The Chargers were one of the worst rush defenses in football last season and are expected to struggle once again. We already saw creative usage from Ignold in preseason, and Mike McDaniel comes from the Kyle Shanahan coaching tree, which utilizes the position more than any other team around. With the Dolphins being so low on running backs, and this being the highest total game of the weekend, I think there are plenty worse bets to make.
And if you want an absolutely degenerate TD to sprinkle, then I'll be going with Cole Turner at +1500 on FanDuel. The second-year TE is absolutely huge, was a great red-zone weapon in college and formed a very good connection with Howell in preseason. The Ghost of Logan Thomas is playing with negative ACLs, and I think Turner is involved early! Good price, here.
Stu 'Monotone' Durst uses the Sportstopia DFS Optimizer to analyze prizepick props
The NFL season is finally here, and I couldn’t be happier! Every single week, I’ll be placing an Underdog/PrizePicks entry and breaking down each prop with analysis and key stats that will help you make money. Additionally, I will be using the Sportstopia DFS optimizer to guide my research, which you can sign up for!
One of the first props that immediately jumped off the page to me was Tyreek Hill over 6.5 receptions. While deciding between yards and receptions can be tough for a high-end receiver like Hill, he led the league in WR catches behind the line of scrimmage last season, which gives him a safer floor than most.
Additionally, the Dolphins have the most consantrated offense in football, with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle making up more or their teams receiving more production than any other combo in the league!
This Dolphins-Chargers matchup sets up to be one of the highest scoring on the slate, and what better way to take advantage than by betting on the most explosive player in the game. Hill went over this number in 10 games last season, and 8/13 games with Tua averaging 7.2 receptions and 10.5 targets. I think this high tempo setup gives us plenty of opportunities today.
If you’ve heard me talk about Tua this offseason, you’ve probably heard the term "regression" in the same sentence. While he was the best QB in the league throwing over the middle, teams caught on and started to sell out defending that part of the field.
Forcing Tua to throw more to the boundaries is where the mistakes started, and I expect defenses to be ready for that. When he saw Tua struggle more, who did he look into? His number one target Tyreek Hill.
One of the best ways to use these apps like PrizePicks is by comparing their lines to traditional sportsbooks. Nick Chubb is currently -160 to -190 on every major book to score, yet he’s available to place here on PrizePicks, which is rarely the case for a prop with those odds.
Additionally, they normally only offer "rushing TD" but this includes receiving and passing, which is a big deal considering Kareem Hunt is out of town and Chubb would potentially earn some additional receiving work.
Chubb is already one of the best backs in the league, running behind an elite offensive line. He has a great history against Cincinnati as well, recording 916 total yards and 8 TDs over the course of nine career games.
Kareem Hunt has always been a great red zone back, averaging 6 TDs per year over his last 6 seasons with the Browns, but he’s left town, and there is nobody left to replace him.
My Washington Commanders are currently -7-point favorites, likely for the only time this season. This means that this is likely the best game-script possible for Robinson, going against the team that is likely to end the season with the number one overall pick in the draft.
This Cardinals defense was a mess last season, and got significantly worse on defense losing JJ Watt, Zach Allen, and Marcus Golden from their line. This Cardinals defense is one of the worst week 1 units I’ve seen in awhile, and I expect the Washington backs to take advantage early and often.
Robinson was 8-4 to the over last season, despite returning very quickly from a gunshot injury. He averaged 17 carries per game, slowly begun to improve in efficiency metrics as he got healthier deep into the season.
Now that he’s got a full offseason to prep, I expect Robinson to look much better then he did last season. I was not a fan of his game at first, but his volume is secure, and he’s looked better and better as he’s been given time to heal and improve.
This is a smash spot for the second year back, and I look forward to fading Arizona often this season.
Finally PrizePicks has a promo for Dak Prescott to throw for 1 passing yard. This a reminder that these apps are posting tons of great promotions, and it’s our job to make them regret it! Always be vigilant for discounts and deals when you’re winning on the margins!
.svg){kind=icon}
.svg){kind=icon}