The best Vegas lines to check out for Week 8
“Get Paid” – Young Dolph (2015)
Because we finished another week with a 3-0 sweep, our season record is now 14-4 (78%)! Clearly, something is going right, so let’s keep it going. Here is what I am looking for this week in the NFL.
Welcome back, old friend. We missed you. I would take the week off as well after Mac Jones and the Patriots gave us our first ATS loss this season with a terrible bad beat. But now, we rebound.
I’m not going to sell it to you like this is a great bet. The Raiders could be starting Jimmy Garoppolo at quarterback. There is probably an even more likely chance that it is Brian Hoyer, who looked terrible last week vs the Bears. The Raiders are also on a back-to-back road spot, which is brutal in the NFL (remember this fact for later). And the Lions got beat so bad last week that if they were an underdog in this game, then they would also be a ‘Close Your Eyes Special’.
However, we must respect the CYE Special being 6-1 ATS. Also, we have Davante Adams returning to play the Lions. Despite being with a new team this time, Adams has had success at Detroit. In his last three games there, he averaged 7 catches for 116 yards and a touchdown. I’m trusting the CYE Special again.
Now, I know some people are thinking, “No way am I trusting Malik Willis.”
Ryan Tannehill (ankle) got knocked out before the bye week during their game in London versus the Baltimore Ravens. This coaching staff has had two weeks to prepare Willis and themselves for a pretty big home game halfway through the season.
Meanwhile, Desmond Ridder is coming off of his first road win. But, at what cost, as Bijan Robinson is now expected to miss some time. This will also be Student vs. Master as Arthur Smith returns to Tennessee -- where he was offensive coordinator – as Falcons head coach.
This is a classic Mike Vrabel-as-a-home-underdog spot where nobody believes in the Titans, and he finds a way to get it done. Vrabel is 11-8-1 ATS as a home dog. Willis is actually 2-1 ATS as a starter under Vrabel as well. I’m going to trust the coaching staff not to ask Willis to do much and play good defense.
Here is another trend we will have to blindly trust because it is so good. Mike Tomlin is dominant as an underdog:
We could literally go all day here. This is a spot where you trust Tomlin. Add in that Matt Canada’s offensive looked competent with Dionte Johnson returning to the lineup. Kenny Pickett had issues with his receivers creating separation and getting open, but Johnson provides that safe option in the intermediate range that Pickett can go to.
Meanwhile, the Jaguars are rightfully favored after winning four straight. But this is a back-to-back road spot for the Jaguars. In 2023, teams on the second leg of a back-to-back road spot are 9-16-1 ATS and 9-17 straight up. Very easy handicap here—we trust Tomlin (as an underdog).
Check out Terrell's Value Finders for Week 7
We are back with another Value Finder column for this pivotal Week 7. Six teams have a bye, so that shortens the selection pool. Less room for error so every player is valuable. Let’s look at some values:
Love has not consistently had all the weapons available to him, but coming off a bye he is expected to have a healthy offense. The Broncos defense have allowed the second most passing yards in the league and the second most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks.
This is a tough play when you think about how Love went into the bye. He looked very rough during a two-game losing streak, so it was the perfect spot for a bye week. Coach Matt LaFleur can center the offense and it gave the whole team another week to get healthy. While on the road, the Fantasy Sports Contrarian Optimizer agrees this is a great spot for Love versus one of the worst defenses in the league.
You must get different if you want to win a million dollars. Evans is getting a huge opportunity with the injuries to the Rams running back room. Kyren Williams just went on IR after they traded Cam Akers to Minnesota, and Ronnie Rivers is out as well.
Evans will start against a Steelers defense that is giving up the seventh most fantasy points per game. Even with Matthew Stafford’s gunslinger mentality, Sean McVay wants to keep running. The Contrarian Edge Optimizer spit out Evans as a cheap, value play a few times. Look for Evans to exploit a Steelers defense that will be playing the pass more than the run in this game.
Johnson returns from a hamstring injury that sent him to IR. He was a full participant in practice all week and does not carry an injury designation.
The Steelers offense has been abysmal without him, but I think he can reclaim his role as a focal point. Despite the changes at quarterback, he has consistently been a target hog. He runs the short to intermediate routes and is escape option for Kenny Pickett. The CEO likes Johnson as a cheap, good option.
Game Stack Alert. The Broncos' defense is giving up the most fantasy points to tight ends. They have allowed the most receiving yards and have given up three touchdowns — fourth most in the NFL.
Musgrave was knocked out in Week 4 against the Lions, but still played 69% of snaps the next week. He is lapping the tight end room in snap count and Love has fed him targets in every game he has finished. Expect to see Musgrave take advantage of a soft Broncos secondary.
Check out the juiciest Vegas lines for Week 7
Well, I have good news and bad news. The good news is we had another winning day as we finished 2-1 on last week’s article. The bad news is that the one loss was probably the worst beating of the season. The Patriots were down two and driving to try and win the game versus the Raiders. The absolute worst thing happened as the Patriots took a safety and failed to cover as three-point underdogs.
Nonetheless, we continue to do well in this article, so here are the lines I am looking into:
As a Giants fan, this is a tough side to take. The Giants have been abysmal and devastated by injuries. Meanwhile the Commanders have been Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde and haven't put together a run of good performances.
The Giants opened to begin the season as -2.5-point favorites and are currently 2-point home underdogs. However, this line does not take into account the Commanders' struggles. Last week, I mentioned how Sam Howell has not thrown interceptions in back-to-back games. Well, he also has not had back-to-back games without an interception.
This Giants defense has found ways in the past few games to really energize their defense. They have allowed less than 300 yards in two of the past three games and created five turnovers. I expect to see the defense get pressure and rattle Howell, who is the most sacked quarterback this season.
The Browns are coming down from a major win as they gave the San Francisco 49ers their first loss of the season. Meanwhile, the Colts looked bad as they got swept by the Jacksonville Jaguars. Clearly, Cleveland looks like the better team, despite the questions at quarterback, but the line is telling a different story.
This line opened at Browns -3 and now it is Browns -2.5. This is alarming because over 80% of the bets and money are on Cleveland. We call this “reverse line movement” Now, ask yourself this — if everybody and their mom is running to bet the Browns then why would the sportsbooks lower the line. Why make it easier to bet the Browns when they are your biggest liability?
It’s because they know what I know that this is a good spot for the Colts. This Browns defense is a force, but this a huge letdown spot for the Browns after beating one of the top teams in the NFC without their starting quarterback.
But now, I think that offense will struggle with a Colts defense that is getting healthier and stronger. Shaq Leonard and Kwity Paye returned last week to give the defense a huge boost and they should be stronger this week. I expect to see a better version of Gardner Minshew at home than on the road — take the Colts to keep things close and potentially upset Cleveland.
This might have to be one of my favorite coach trends in the NFL. It may or may not be because it hit last week as well. After losing outright as 10-point favorites to the Browns, Kyle Shanahan moves to 1-6 ATS as a road favorite of seven or more points. In the previous six instances, Shanahan did win every game, but only covered one.
Consistently, Shanahan’s teams have been given too much credit on the road when playing an inferior opponent. And a Minnesota team without Justin Jefferson should pose no threat to a 49ers team looking to bounce back after their first lost.
However, every game this season for the Vikings has been a one-possession game. The most they won by is eight and the most they lost by is seven — exactly where this line is at.
The 49ers are potentially one of the best teams in the league, but Shanahan has struggled in these spots to cover the spread. And this Minnesota defense is attempting to come into their own. If Kirk Cousins can limit the turnovers versus this nasty 49er defense, then I think he can attack the middle of the field with TJ Hockenson and keep this game close.
Check out the best picks against the odds in Week 6
For the second straight week, we had a 3-0 sweep in this weekly ‘Vegas Lines’ article. I feel like the Las Vegas Aces vs the Dallas Wings. The ‘Close Your Eyes Special’ has moved to 5-0 ATS this season as the New Orleans Saints and the Pittsburgh Steelers both got outright wins. And the “Petty Bowl” was everything as advertised as the New York Jets and Denver Broncos went over the total.
In Week 6, here are the lines I am looking into:
Some did not believe it when they saw me take the Seattle Seahawks at +5.5 after the Detroit Lions upset the Kansas City Chiefs. Others did not believe it when they saw me take the Washington Commanders at +9 vs the red-hot Philadelphia Eagles. All I have to say now is, “Do you believe now?!” (Deion Sanders’ voice).
The Commanders are back as a ‘Close Your Eyes Special’ after losing 40-20 to the Chicago Bears on Thursday Night Football as six-point favorites. Meanwhile, the Atlanta Falcons battled back for their second straight comeback win at home vs the Houston Texans.
Desmond Ridder threw for 300 passing yards for the first time in his career as he moved to 5-0 at home. As a matter a fact, Ridder has not lost a home game since high school. But all good things must end.
Eric Bienemy left the Chiefs after last season because wanted to step out of Andy Reid’s shadow as an offensive coordinator and play-caller. And thus far with Washington it has been up and down. Thursday night was the third time the Commanders failed to score over 20 points after topping 30 in two of the three previous games.
Washington head coach Ron Rivera has been very good as an underdog as we noted for the Eagles game. He is 16-9 ATS (64%) as an underdog of less than three points. He is also 34-25-1 ATS (57.6%) as a road underdog.
This should be a nice bounce-back spot for Sam Howell, who has not had back-to-back games with an interception. Look for Washington get their offense going against a pesky Falcons defense.
You’ve got to love matchups between head coach and former assistant. Bill Belichick vs Josh McDaniels has the making of a ‘Petty Bowl II’. The Raiders will be coming off a short week after a Monday home win against the Green Bay Packers. The Patriots are back as part of another ‘Close Your Eyes Special’ after they got decimated by the New Orleans Saints at home (we had the Saints last week if you missed it).
There is not much to like about the Patriots in this matchup. Mac Jones looks horrible. The defense lost two of their best stars in Matthew Judon and Christian Gonzalez. The fans are calling for BOTH of Bill Belichick’s jobs.
Luckily, the Patriots face a Raiders defense that is giving up a lot of big plays in the passing game. The Raiders have given up a 40-yard completion in four straight games, which should benefit Jones. The run game should also benefit Jones as the Raiders are giving up the ninth-most rushing yards to running backs.
The Raiders’ offense has still yet to score over 18 points in a game. I expect the Patriots to do enough to get the win.
Here is where we check in with our local meteorologist. We are expecting bad weather, with the current forecast calling for 50-degree weather with rain and close to 20 mph winds.
If anyone remembers the 49ers-Bears in Week 1 last season, you can see why this total is interesting. Windy game unders are a typically good betting trend regardless of what team is playing. Now, imagine having two of the best defenses in the NFL squaring off.
Browns DC Jim Schwartz says he likes his defensive backs against anybody. He calls a lot of man coverage and trusts them to hold their own while creating havoc around the line of scrimmage.
In a game where both teams are going to try to keep the ball on the ground, I expect to see him dial up a defensive front that can give even the great Christian McCaffrey some problems.
On the other side, the Browns really will miss Nick Chubb. The 49ers’ front seven is the best in the league and will make it tough for Cleveland RBs Jerome Ford or Pierre Strong. Drives will stall on both sides, making this an ugly game.
We have already lost a couple of points on the total in this one but I really do not foresee either team doing enough to make it close to the over.
Terrell gives you his top values for Week 5
We have been very successful with our ‘Value Finder’ series this season. The Fantasy Sports Optimizer has helped me compile a list of players that should exceed expectations at cost. Here are my top values in Week 5:
The way to win a DFS contest is to be contrarian. The Philadelphia Eagles’ defense is one of the top units in the NFL, but Fantasy Sports Contrarian Optimizer and I believe they have an area that can be exploited — the secondary.
Through four weeks, the Eagles’ secondary has given up the seventh-most passing yards in the league. They have also given out two separate QB2 finishes for the week (Mac Jones and Kirk Cousins) and a QB12 to Sam Howell last week.
Stafford has had a rough start to the season and has not topped QB15 yet. But he’s a gunslinger and gets his top weapon back in wide receiver Cooper Kupp. That will open things up for Puka Nacua and Tutu Atwell. This is a great week to get a contrarian, value option at quarterback.
I love a great narrative story that is supported by facts. It feels like telling the future. Here is the narrative here:
Almost a year ago to the day, Hall tore his ACL in the first half of their game at Denver. He was potentially on his way to an Offensive Rookie of the Year award, and it was all over just like that. Now, here we are back at Denver, and the Broncos have given up the most rushing yards to running backs so far this season.
To top it off, the Broncos head coach last season was Nathaniel Hackett, who is now the offensive coordinator for the New York Jets. And did you catch what Sean Payton said about Hackett in the off-season?
This is a great matchup for Hall in a game that will have a roller coaster of emotions. The Jets have come out and said Hall is no longer being managed and will receive a full workload. The Fantasy Sports Contrarian Optimizer and I have Breece Hall as a great, sneaky play this week that could find himself as one of the top RBs of the week.
I know. I know. I know. DeAndre Hopkins has not looked as advertised for this offense. It’s been very tough sledding for the former All-Pro wideout. His best weekly finish this season is WR36. But this matchup versus the Indianapolis Colts is interesting.
The Colts are giving up the eighth most fantasy points to wide receivers. This is a game that is going to start in the trenches with Derrick Henry and he is going to take the pressure off Hopkins. If there is ever a boom week for Hopkins, it’s this one. He’s scored in five straight games versus the Colts.
We have repeat customer to the article! We hit big with Hurst in Week 1 and I love him again in this spot. This Detroit Lions defense’ has been really solid in defending wide receivers while giving up the most receiving yards to tight ends.
This should be a dominant game for the Lions and I’m expecting any work Bryce Young supplies to be in garbage time. This Lions defensive line should pressure Young into making quick throws and I believe Hurst can benefit. Hurst could have a nice PPR day and cap it off with a garbage time touchdown. Very cheap option with high upside for Week 5.
Terrell picks out the top Vegas lines for Week 5
Break out your broomsticks because we had a 3-0 sweep in last week’s article moving our season record to 6-3!
The ‘Close Your Eyes Special’ moved to 3-0 ATS this season with the Washington Commanders losing to the Philadelphia Eagles in overtime 34-31 as 9-point underdogs. New Orleans Saints QB Derek Carr continued to play a week after an AC joint sprain and the offense could never get going as they lost to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 26-9 — covering the under 39.5 total points. Finally, the Tennessee Titans defense dominated the Cincinnati Bengals 27-3 as +2.5 underdogs.
In Week 5, here are the lines I am looking into:
The Saints and the Patriots both met the ‘Close Your Eyes Special’ criteria -- underperforming the spread by 21 or more points in Week 4. The Saints, however, are the play here as an underdog. Everyone saw how rough the offense looked not scoring even a touchdown. But this week could be an easier matchup.
Realize this – the Patriots are really bad. They’re also significantly limited on defense with injuries to Matthew Judon and Christian Gonzalez — arguably their two best defenders. With another week of recovery and rehab for Carr, I expect to see this offense look a lot better in Alvin Kamara’s second game back this season.
The Steelers are back here in a familiar spot. They’ve been a ‘Close Your Eyes Special’ every other week. And once again, they are at home in a division game.
In preseason, this line was Ravens -1. After the Steelers’ lackluster start to the season the line jumped to Ravens -4. Mike Tomlin is 53-28-2 (65.4%) ATS as an underdog. He is also 16-5-3 (76.2%) ATS as a home underdog — including 2-0 ATS vs the Ravens as a home dog.
Pittsburgh QB Kenny Pickett suffered a bone bruise in the 30-6 loss to the Texans on Sunday, but he will practice this week and will be a game-time decision. After the start this offense has had this season, I don’t see much difference between Pickett and backup Mitchell Trubisky.
I think this will be another low scoring game in which the Steelers defense keeps them alive. The Ravens’ offense is going through a number of injuries that this defense will be able to exploit and create opportunities for the offense.
This is going to be the Petty Bowl. In late July, new Broncos head coach Sean Payton referred to predecessor Nathaniel Hackett – now the Jets’ offensive coordinator – by saying the 2022 season “might have been one of the worst coaching jobs in the history of the NFL. That’s how bad it was.”
The Jets’ coaching staff and players rallied behind Hackett in response. Thus, I think this game is going to be an offensive explosion by both sides. Why? To be PETTYYYY.
There’s also the fact the Jets are 14th in opponent points per game (21) and the Broncos are last (37.5). Zach Wilson looked a lot better on Sunday Night Football and is growing in Hackett’s offense.
On the other hand, Russell Wilson has the Broncos’ offense 10th in scoring (25 ppg) despite the 1-4 record. Their defense has not done them any favors, so I am expecting to see a bunch points in this game.
Terrell looks at the top choices for the Week 4 lines
“Last week I took an L, but this week I bounce back” – Detroit Lions (Week 3, 2023)
My Week 3 article went 2-1 as the Lions handled business against the Falcons 20-6. The Patriots and the Jets cleared our under-37 bet as they combined for 25 total points. However, I deserved the lone loss by fading Patrick Mahomes. I knew I would regret it and I did as the Bears did not even show up in Arrowhead
Let’s evaluate a few lines for Week 4, shall we?
Well, well, well — we have another ‘Close Your Eyes Special’! Sam Howell had by far his worst game as starting quarterback of the Commanders in Week 3, throwing four (ugly) interceptions as the Buffalo Bills won 37-3.
The Commanders were catching 5.5 points at kickoff meaning they underperformed the spread by 21+ points. Now they are 8.5-point underdogs to the Philadelphia Eagles.
Aside from the ‘Close Your Eyes Special’ being 2-0 SU/ATS to start the season, there are a couple of reasons to like the Commanders. Starting at the top, Coach Ron Rivera is 55-42-2 (56.7%) as an underdog in his career — 33-25-1 on the road (56.9%). Digging deeper, Rivera is 15-9-1 when his team is an underdog of seven or more points.
The Commanders did get a win outright on the road versus this Eagles team in 2022. They controlled time of possession and created a lot of turnovers, and I think that can still be a good recipe for success this week. While the jury is still out on Howell, it will be hard to replicate the bad game he had against Buffalo.
I’m adding another divisional under this week. And once again, I have the lowest total on the board. This series has gone under in four of the last five of their regular-season matchups. The Saints have gone under in all three of their games this season. TB is 2-1 to the under.
The Bucs turned the ball over twice versus the Eagles on Monday after not having a single turnover in their first two games. After a really good outing versus the Chicago Bears, this Bucs offense looked to revert to where expectations were at the beginning of the season as they only could produce 174 yards of offense.
The Saints’ defense hasn’t given up more than 18 points. Derek Carr went down versus the Green Bay Packers with a shoulder injury and is expected to miss this game. Jameis Winston came in and looked okay, but the offense was shut out in the fourth quarter as they blew a 17-0 lead. I do like Winston to get the win in a revenge game at home, but I could not resist the total. I expect to see something similar to the Patriots/Jets from last week.
Joe Burrow and the Bengals got the monkey off their back with their first win of the season on Monday Night Football versus the Los Angeles Rams. But it was visibly apparent that Burrow was still bothered by that calf injury he suffered in training camp.
The Titans, on the other hand, were just a half a point away from being a ‘close your eyes special’ this week. They got handed by the Cleveland Browns 27-3. The Browns defense was dominate giving up only 94 yards of offense.
The Titans problem is that Browns defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz believes his DBs are so good, he might stack the box versus Derrick Henry and dared Ryan Tannehill to beat him. Unfortunately, the Bengals do not have that luxury, so I expect to see a more effective Henry.
The Titans' defense is still legit as well. Despite the loss they added five more sacks to their season total. With Burrow being compromised, I expect to see a better defensive effort from the Titans and the offense to do what they do best—run Henry. Mike Vrabel is 10-6 ATS as a home dog in his career, look for the Titans to win outright.
Check out great value plays for Week 3 of the NFL
We had a very good week in last week’s article. Geno Smith finished as the QB8! Rachaad White finished as the RB8! And Josh Reynolds finished as the WR9! White was in the winning million-dollar lineup on DraftKings. Once again, I used our Fantasy Sports Contrarian Optimizer to help me extract more from player being undervalued in DFS. Here is who I am on this week:
This week is slightly more difficult. A lot of big-name quarterbacks have great matchups. But, if you did not know, I am a degenerate. So, we are going low price, high reward and look no other than your QB13 last week in Stroud.
Regardless of the outcome of the game, fantasy points are fantasy points. And Stroud was garbage time king last week, finishing with 384 passing yards and two touchdowns. Despite getting rolled by the Colts, Stroud showed me enough to look at him again this week.
The Jacksonville Jaguars, for whatever reason, struggle with the Texans. They’ve lost five straight home games to them. Now, they have the Texans in a clear lookahead spot to a long road trip to London for the next two weeks.
And the Jags have given up the ninth most passing yards in the league, and they are giving up the fourth most fantasy points to QBs on DraftKings and the fifth most on FanDuel. Stroud may or may not have it in him to will this team to a win, but this sets up well to have a really good fantasy day.
I mentioned it last week. De’Andre Swift gashed this Minnesota Vikings defense in Week 2. This seemed like an amazing opportunity to be able to hop on the fade Minnesota run defense train.
This is the highest total of Week 3, so there could be a lot of fantasy points. Chargers RB Austin Ekeler has been ruled out another week and even he said the Joshua Kelley breakout is coming. Many Justin Herbert stacks are going to include his cadre of talented receivers, but if you want to go contrarian, then a cheap option in Kelley is it.
The Vikings have allowed the second most rushing yards to running backs, excluding the New York Giants who played their Week 3 game already. While I do expect the receivers to carry the Chargers down the field, Kelley leads the team in red zone opportunities. The optimizer likes the opportunity for Kelley to score at least two TDs, thanks to big plays.
We said it last week. Say it again for me: GAME STACK!! Did you see me point out that this game has the highest total on the board? Here is the reason why.
The Los Angeles Chargers – even despite the Giants and 49ers having played an extra game already -- lead the NFL in giving up receiving yards to WRs, and by far giving up the most fantasy points to the position.
All Vikings stacks will have Justin Jefferson (of course) and Jordan Addison. Addison has scored in his first two NFL games — he’s clear cut the WR2 right? Not so fast. K.J. Osborn is out snapping Addison and receiving more targets and more redzone targets.
The Osborn breakout is coming, and this could be the week with Jefferson and Addison clearly getting all the attention by the Chargers defense. The optimizer has Osborn as a cheap wide receiver option in this big game.
We have a Taysom Hill sighting for Week 3. As somebody who punted TE in season-long fantasy, I stream tight end every week, so I am always looking for cheap options.
With Saints RBs Alvin Kamara suspended for one more week and Jamaal Williams out with injury, Hill got a good amount of work as a running back last week. He has always been a utility player for the Saints. Do I think he is going to continue to pace them in carries? Absolutely not.
But the goal line is where the Saints get very creative with Hill. They line him up at tight end, running back, and quarterback when they get in close. Without their bruiser on the goal line, I am hoping for a couple short TDs, as it seems he has a big game every season.
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