Terrell breaks down the juiciest Vegas lines for Week 3
The ‘close your eyes special’ saved our day in Week 2 -- the Seahawks winning outright as +5.5 underdogs in overtime. However, I’m kicking myself for not adding the Steelers on Monday Night Football.
In any case, the ‘close your eyes special’ moves to 2-0 ATS and SU on the season. Hope you sprinkled on the money line!
Unfortunately, that was the lone bright spot. The Green Bay Packers shifted to +1.5 underdogs after injury news. They covered the +1.5, but it was -1.5 when I handicapped it for the article. And the New York Jets did not stand a chance at all. Loss.
Let’s evaluate a few lines for Week 3 of the NFL.
Shop around because there are a couple of Lions -3 out there. This line opened on the lookahead Lions -5, but the public came down heavy on the Falcons after their comeback win versus the Packers. This could be optimism on the Falcons or a fade of the Lions who just lost to the Seahawks at home (we called it!).
But I want to come back to the Lions this week. They will be without star safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson, who might be out for the season with a torn pec. I do not have much faith in the Lions defense, and the way to attack them is through the air. Seattle QB Geno Smith finished 32 for 41 for 328 yards and two touchdowns.
While he is still young, I am not yet a believer in Falcons QB Desmond Ridder. Atlanta relies heavily on running the ball — typical for head coach Arthur Smith. However, the Lions are allowing the seventh fewest rushing yards to running backs. Expect the Lions defense to force Ridder to try and beat them.
Jared Goff and company bounce back at home.
I might regret this very early in this game. KC QB Patrick Mahomes has one of the best win percentages since entering the league, and Chicago QB Justin Fields has one of the worst. However, we just need the Bears to not get destroyed.
How do you win games -- or cover -- vs the Chiefs? Run the ball effectively and control time of possession. Luckily, this might be the only good thing that the Bears do on offense. Fields is a gifted runner, and Chicago has shown a commitment to the rush. They didn’t in Week 2, but I expect them to add emphasis to it this week.
This is really just a fade of Mahomes and Andy Reid as heavy favorites. Mahomes is 7-13-1 as a double-digit favorite in his career, and Reid is 15-22-1. These Chiefs are still figuring things out with this new roster, so the growing pains will continue. After Week 2, this line jumped from Chiefs -9 to Chiefs -12.5.
Chiefs win comfortably but the Bears backdoor this number.
Is this the regular season or the preseason? The O/U of 37 easily clears as our lowest total on the board, so of course I’m going under. The under has cashed in three of the last five matchups between these two teams.
The Jets are struggling to readjust their offense to Zach Wilson. Nathaniel Hackett was brought in mostly because of his relationship with Aaron Rodgers and the familiarity with the offense.
Wilson is still learning this offense. The Jets’ struggles will continue operating behind a rough offensive line that has yet to afford any of their quarterbacks time to throw.
The Patriots have looked better offensively this year, maybe because now they have a real offensive coordinator. But things won’t come easy against this Jets defense. They are stacked at every position and profile to be one of the best defenses in the league.
Last week was rough because the offense put them in terrible situations, but I think back at home the offense can be competent enough to punt instead of turning the ball over and allow the defense room to work.
The under is my favorite play in this one and sharps agree as it has already moved from 38.5 to 37.
Check out our 'Value Finder' DFS options for Week 2
1
Vegas analysis on three NFL games this week
Every Tuesday, I wake up and react to the shift in line movement after a weekend of NFL football. A line can shift for several reasons, sometimes for better or worse. In this series of articles, we look at three games a week and any associated line movement with them.
In Week 2, here are the three games with line movement that I am targeting.
I went to this game immediately. Colleagues Sean Green and Ryan Kramer from the Sports Gambling Podcast put me on to a betting trend I have blindly tailed in almost every situation – the ‘Close Your Eyes Special.’
The Close Your Eyes Special is when a team underperforms the spread by 21+ points and is underdog the next week. Four teams underperformed the spread by 21+ points -- the Cincinnati Bengals, the New York Giants, the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Seattle Seahawks. Only the Steelers and the Seahawks are underdogs this week, but let’s focus on the Seahawks.
The Detroit Lions got a three-point line move after Week 1from -2.5 to -5.5. The thought process behind the Close Your Eyes Special is that team that just got destroyed the week before is vastly underrated the next week. During the 2022 season the Close Your Eyes Special went 6-3 ATS with five outright wins.
The Lions had a few lapses in coverage but were fortunate with several drops by the Kansas City Chiefs. Seattle’s offense was dynamic last year, and they added one of the top receivers in the draft in Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Last season, the Seahawks won this game 48-45. Expect Seattle keep it close again.
The Packers surprised some in Week 1. Jordan Love passed for three touchdowns with help from running back Aaron Jones and wide receiver Romeo Doubs. This week’s line completely flipped from Falcons -1.5 to Packers -1.5. And I’m not sure it is enough.
The Packers are better, but the books are slow to keep up. This team has a great defense and Love showed he can steer the offense in the right direction. While the Falcons did get a divisional win last week, the benefited more from the rookie struggles of Bryce Young than their own merit. Desmond Ridder still is developing as a passer and unfortunately, he did not have Aaron Rodgers to sit behind. I like Coach LaFleur to outcoach Coach Smith in Love’s first road start.
I could not in good faith leave this line out. Prior to Monday night, the Cowboys were three-point favorites. By the fourth quarter, with Rodgers out with an Achilles tear, the ‘Boys were at -7.5. And a day after the Jets’ miraculous punt return in overtime, the line is Cowboys -9.5.
The Jets are back to where they were last year with Zach Wilson running things, but Wilson does not quarterback the defense. That honor goes to C.J. Mosley, and his D forced four turnovers and gave up 16 points. Sauce Gardner and the defense had already broken out last season and have solidified themselves as one of the best in the league.
The Cowboys annihilated the New York Giants on Sunday night. Their defensive line wreaked havoc all night and gave the Giants offensive line all they could handle. While I do expect much of the same from them on defense, I expect the Cowboys to struggle to find ways to move the ball versus the Jets defense.
I’m very interested in seeing a Dak Prescott interception player prop price. The Jets will struggle on offense, but the Cowboys will as well. I think the Jets cover the +9.5 and I would seriously consider a look towards the under.
Terrell Furman hits us with his values in DFS for week 1
Value Finders
If you want a chance to take down your DFS contest, then you are going to have to find the
diamonds in the rough. Getting big value production for a lower price is the difference between
a good team and a great one!
This article will serve as a place to find those roses growing from the concrete and take down
your DFS contest. Now, these guys are not going to carry your team, but they will anchor them
with solid production at a great cost (all salaries courtesy of DraftKings).
QB: Derek Carr, New Orleans Saints ($5,300, QB18 at cost)
The only thing that was more shocking than putting ‘New Orleans Saints’ after Carr’s name, was
the fact that he is the QB18 at cost. This is a guy who is not afraid to push the ball downfield. He
now has the weapons--with a healthy Michael Thomas and Chris Olave, who is looking to build
upon a great rookie year. We have yet to mentioned they are playing a Titans’ defense that
gave up the THIRD most fantasy points per game to the quarterback position in 2022! This
secondary still projects to be bad, and Carr should take advantage in a dome environment.
RB: Deon Jackson, Indianapolis Colts ($4,100, RB35 at cost)
This is surprising, yet not shocking, many will have to google who Deon Jackson is. The
hardcore Degens remember. We remember WELL! In Johnathan Taylor’s absence last season vs
the Jaguars, Jackson finished as the RB1!!! With Zack Moss downgraded to doubtful (arm),
Jackson slides into the starting role against those same Jaguars. The Jaguars bring back the
same defense that allowed Jackson to torch them for ten catches for 79 yards and a
touchdown. This is also the same defense that gave up the second most receiving yards to
running backs in 2022. Anthony Richardson electing to extend plays with his legs rather than
check down passes is a concern, but at this price, I love Jackson to have a solid fantasy day.
WR: Romeo Doubs, Green Bay Packers ($4,400, WR35 at cost)
The Packers released their first injury report with their top two wide receivers questionable
with hamstring injuries. Christian Watson was later ruled out and Romeo Doubs was optimistic
to play. Doubs has flashed in spurts during last year, however, injuries have been his downfall. If
you trust the optimism of the coaching staff that his injury is minor, then we should feel confident Doubs has proven he
can step up without Watson in the lineup. In three games without Watson last season, Doubs
racked up nine catches 109 yards and two touchdowns averaging 12.5 fantasy points. This game
not only will he not have Watson, but also no Allen Lazard or Randall Cobb who jumped ship
with Aaron Rodgers. Expect a very productive day for Doubs.
TE: Hayden Hurst, Carolina Panthers ($3,000, TE24 at cost)
Welcome back to the Carolinas Hayden! They are excited to have you! As much like the Packers
they were decimated by the early injury report, i.e. D.J. Chark already ruled out and
Adam Thielen is questionable with an ankle injury. Terrace Marshall Jr. was also limited
majority of the week with a back injury. Hurst may find himself as a huge value at tight end, simply
because there are not many other options for a rookie Bryce Young. Rookie quarterbacks tend
to rely heavy on their tight ends for check downs and safe passes--so this is more of a volume
play for me. Hurst could stumble into a heavy target day against an Atlanta Falcons defense
that allowed the fifth most fantasy points per game to the tight end position last year. The big dog has got to eat week 1, fire up the kibble!
Happy money hunting!
.svg){kind=icon}
.svg){kind=icon}