Tom Viera is an experienced betting and fantasy sports columnist. He brings a vast knowledge of all things NFL, MLB, and NBA. He lives and breathes player props. During the NFL season, he can be found on Twitter (@Tom_Viera) sharing his successful anytime touchdown picks.
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Tom's top PrizePicks and Underdog plays
The NBA season officially began last Tuesday, but this Tuesday, I say it officially kicked off because we received our first blockbuster overnight Woj bomb. The 76ers saga with James Harden concluded early Tuesday morning. Philadelphia agreed to send a package that included Harden and PJ Tucker to the Clippers for veterans Marcus Morris, Nicolas Batum, Robert Covington, and picks. There are three games Tuesday night to select our Underdog, and PrizePicks plays for.
There are a couple of fun matchups, including an Eastern Conference playoff rematch between the New York Knicks and Cleveland Cavaliers. The new-look Clippers could make their debut Tuesday night when they host the Orlando Magic.
The Knicks will be in Cleveland to battle the Cavaliers in a playoff rematch in the first game on TNT Tuesday night. Cleveland remains without Jarrett Allen, so Robinson will easily be the biggest force on the floor. Mitch has hauled in 15 and 13 rebounds over his last two games. The Knicks lead the NBA in rebounding so far this season, and without Allen to protect the paint, the Cavaliers have struggled on the glass, allowing the 9th most rebounds per game.
The Cavaliers will be short-handed tonight, so Mitchell will see an even bigger spike in his already crazy-high usage. Darius Garland has been ruled out for Tuesday, and in 9 games last season without Garland, Mitchell had at least 4 turnovers 8 times! Mitchell has played without Garland once already this season and had 5 turnovers to go with his usage increase to 36.4%! This is not an indictment of Mitchell’s play but just a spot where he will have the ball in his hands a ton.
This will be the world’s second look at Wemby on national television when the Spurs battle the Suns on TNT. The phenom has finished with 5, 12, and 5 rebounds in his first three games. In his two finishes with just 5 rebounds, he dealt with foul trouble and then a blowout, which saw him play just 23 and 26 minutes. The Spurs should be in this game, and Jusuf Nurkic and Drew Eubanks are not instilling any fear. Trust Wemby to grab at least 7 boards.
I’m staying in the desert for my next pick. The Suns center should be able to dominate his matchup against his former teammate, Zach Collins, who isn’t known for his abilities on the defensive end. The Spurs allowed the three Centers they faced to go over this number. Dereck Lively II scored 16 points, Alperen Sengun poured in 25 points, and Ivica Zubac scored 16 points in just 22 minutes.
Wagner is quietly off to a solid start to his 2023 season. He is certainly a player to watch after his strong performance in the World Cup this past summer. With the Clippers lineup possibly a bit unstable tonight following the trade, I’m opting for a Magic player. Wagner has attempted at least 7 three-pointers in all three games so far. He hasn’t been shy about getting his shots up, as he leads all Magic players in three-point attempts so far. The Clippers have allowed the fourth-most threes to opposing small forwards, so this is a good spot for him.
Top PrizePicka and Underdog options for Monday
The NBA season is off and running, and what an exciting first week it was. We’ve now had a chance to see every team play. Many new faces in new places have started off strong, and there are plenty of player props to select from. We’re coming off a sweep last Thursday, and I’m looking to continue that success this week! We have 11 games to select our Underdog, and PrizePicks plays for Monday night to kick off our week!
There are some exciting matchups, including an Eastern Conference playoff rematch between Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Miami Heat. There are plenty of options for Monday night, so let’s get to it.
Riding with Giannis on any night is an easy choice but riding him in the ultimate revenge spot is even better. The Bucks will battle the Heat on Monday night in their third game of the season. Miami was responsible for knocking the Bucks out of the playoffs last season in a massive series upset. Giannis was injured in Game 1 of the series and missed Games 2 and 3. Ultimately, the Bucks lost the series 4-1, and Giannis will be out for blood in this playoff rematch. Including the playoffs, Giannis has gone over this number in 3 of his last 4 healthy games against the Heat. Giannis will get his revenge.
I’m going to keep riding this over until the lines adjust. Simmons is in a make-or-break season for his career outlook. Through the Nets first two games, he has had 18 and 19 rebounds and assists. The Nets get to face one of the NBA’s softest defenses Monday night against the Hornets. Charlotte is allowing the third most rebounds per game, and last season they were also bottom three in rebounds allowed per game. Simmons’ usage rate is down again so far this season, but with Center Nicolas Claxton out again for the Nets, Simmons will be their top rebounder on the floor.
Revenge game narrative? Check. No one on the Wizards to defend him? Check. There is always the risk of a blowout ruining a player prop, but this spread is surprisingly closer than I expected it to be. Porzingis should be able to get his tonight from all over the floor. The Wizards are allowing the second-highest percentage of three-pointers at 43.3%. The “Unicorn” is proving this season why he was given that nickname early in his career.
Cunningham has looked like his explosive self through the season’s first three games for the Pistons. He has scored 30 and 25 points in two of three games, and we can expect him to be busy trying to keep up with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander on Monday night. Cade is leading the Pistons in field goal attempts by a wide margin, and the Thunder are once again struggling to slow down opposing guards.
As a team, the Detroit Pistons have been dominating the boards. They have three players all averaging double-digit rebounds so far. Duren leads the way with 15.3 rebounds per game. He has had an insane 24.3 rebound chances per game and has turned that into games with 15, 17, and 14 rebounds, respectively! I cashed in on his double-double at plus money, but books have adjusted to his output heading into the fourth game of the season. A matchup with the Thunder presents another terrific spot for the second-year man from Memphis to dominate the glass. OKC has allowed the third most rebounds per game to opposing centers so far. The Pistons are a young and exciting team just like the Thunder, just not quite playoff-ready, but they will battle on a nightly basis because of the play of guys like Duren!
Top NBA PrizePicks and Underdog options
NBA Opening Week continues Thursday night, and we have two more games to select our Underdog and PrizePicks plays. The TNT doubleheader features two showdowns between four teams with championship aspirations.
The first game features an Eastern Conference clash as Giannis Antetokounmpo and his new teammate Damian Lillard battle reigning MVP Joel Embiid and the Philadelphia 76ers. The second matchup pegs the new-look Phoenix Suns against the Los Angeles Lakers in LA’s home opener.
The Bucks were a juggernaut at home last season, going 32-8. Giannis just renewed his contract with the Bucks, and he will be on a revenge tour all season long. I believe he will push for league MVP once again.
He has gone over this number in 15 of his last 16 matchups with the 76ers! That’s an insane rate that we can’t ignore. The Bucks made the most significant move in the offseason when they acquired Lillard, but they didn’t add to its frontcourt.
Brook Lopez will defend Embiid often, which leaves Giannis free to gobble up the boards in the Bucks opener.
Maxey is in for a massive increase in usage with James Harden out. Apparently, the Beard was ready to rejoin his teammates, but the team left him at home. His future is in limbo which is likely going to plague Philadelphia until it is resolved.
One thing we can rely on is Maxey will lead the 76ers alongside Joel Embiid. In his last three games against the Bucks, Maxey has gone over this number. Milwaukee traded its best defender Jrue Holiday during the summer.
In 14 games last season without Harden, Maxey surpassed this number nine times, and in two of the unders, he finished with 21.
I expect this to be a popular pick tonight, but I still like it.
I’m double dipping with Maxey, who is primed for a breakout season. Many experts have believed in his talent, but he’s been sort of stuck waiting in the wings throughout his first three seasons. The 76ers need him to be an All-Star caliber player if they want to be a contender, and I think he will be.
Without Harden on the floor, he reeled in at least four rebounds in seven of 14 games and in two of his last three games versus the Bucks. Milwaukee was in the bottom half of the NBA in rebounds allowed per game last season, and Maxey will see increased minutes this season.
This number seems a bit low with his projected increase in usage.
Speaking of an increase in usage. How about the reigning MVP? While I expect Maxey to take a huge leap, Embiid is the primary ball handler for the 76ers.
In his last 6 games against the Bucks, Embiid has produced at least 5 assists 5 times. He played 15 games last season without Harden. He had at least 5 assists in 12 of them. That’s an 80% hit rate on this line.
We can count on Embiid to play big minutes and go over the number as he kicks off his 2023 season.
I’m going back to the well on Davis, who disappeared in the opener against the Nuggets. The Lakers need AD to lead the way this season. He is the focal point of this team.
Davis led the Lakers in shot attempts in their opener but shot a poor percentage and didn’t make a shot in the second half.
The Suns shipped out Deandre Ayton for Jusuf Nurkic in the summer, and Nurkic isn’t known for his defense. It’s not often I agree with Stephen A., but Davis is a rollercoaster, and tonight should be a peak after his poor performance Tuesday.
Our top NBA PrizePicks and Underdog options
Tuesday marks the tip-off of the 2023-24 NBA season, and we have two games for our Underdog and PrizePicks plays. The TNT doubleheader features two Western Conference showdowns. The first game features a rematch of the Western Conference finals with LeBron James and the Lakers facing Nikola Jokic and the defending NBA champion Nuggets. The second matchup pegs the Golden State Warriors and Steph Curry against the new-look Phoenix Suns.
The Lakers have revenge on their mind, and I believe they are the correct side in the opener. Davis will lead the way for the Lakers this season simply because they need him to. AD averaged 26.8 points per game in the West finals. Hopefully we’ll get a full, healthy season from ‘The Brow’.
The Nuggets allowed the most steals per game last season to opposing power forwards. The King truly is positionless, but at this point in his career, he will mostly play power forward with Davis at center.
The Lakers have added depth to its backcourt, so LeBron will defend the post often alongside Davis. James usually has huge opening night performances, and even in year 21, I think we’ll see King James active all over the floor.
LeBron and the Lakers want to make a statement that their run to the WCF wasn’t a fluke, so I expect him to play significant minutes despite it being Game 1. He topped this number in 10 of 16 playoff games last season, and playing the extra minutes tonight will help him get there again.
It’s a no-brainer to back the former MVP on opening night at home in some capacity. He topped this number in three of the four playoff games versus the Lakers last season and in 36 games during the regular season. It doesn’t hurt that the Lakers allowed the sixth-most rebounds per game to opposing centers last season ago.
It sounds like we’ll have to wait a few more days until we get a complete look at the Suns new roster. Bradley Beal is currently doubtful to play in the opener, and Devin Booker is a game-time decision.
Thus, Durant likely will be the focal point, so it’s easy for me to select his over. KD averaged over 29 points per game last season, and I expect him to waste no time to get shots up.
The Suns have a completely revamped roster outside of Durant and Booker. The Warriors will be without Draymond Green tonight, which opens the door even wider for Nurkic to have a solid debut with his new team.
Golden State was bottom 10 last season in points and rebounds allowed to opposing centers. Nurkic has topped this number in six of his last eight matchups against the Warriors, albeit as a member of the Trail Blazers.
Captan and flex prices and our Captain pick
An action-packed Sunday culminates with arguably the best matchup of the season so far. The high-flying Miami Dolphins play at Philadelphia to battle the reigning NFC champion Eagles on Sunday Night Football.
Eagles
Dolphins
Eagles
Dolphins
The injury report for each side during the week was long but it seems both teams are at or near full strength. The Dolphins’ star offseason acquisition on defense, Jalen Ramsey, returned to practice this week in a limited capacity. He underwent knee surgery in July, and he’s likely going to return sooner than many people expected. The Dolphin secondary has been below average, and they will get quite the boost when he makes his Dolphins debut – just not this week.
According to the Contrarian Edge Optimizer, Hurts is projected to be the most-owned Captain on the slate at DraftKings by a margin in over 27% of lineups. It's a bit surprising given his performance against the Jets.
Swift is projected to be the next most-owned Captain in Showdown lineups, appearing in 9.5%. Surprisingly, Tyreek Hill and Tua Tagovailoa are projected to Captain just over 7% of lineups apiece.
The flex positions are projected to be much more balanced. Tua is the only player projected to appear in over 50% of lineups, meanwhile, Hurts, Hill, Brown, and Swift are projected to be in over 40% of lineups.
The current Vegas total is set at 51.5 points. Each offense plays at a quick pace. The Eagles run first, and the Dolphins pass first. Miami is 8th in neutral pace, and Philadelphia is 13th,, so there should be no shortage of plays.
By now, you have heard the storyline that Hurts and Tagovailoa are former college teammates at Alabama and will square off in the NFL for the first time. Tua was drafted in the first round, Hurts in the second round, in 2020. Each quarterback is in the MVP conversation, and both franchises believe they are Super Bowl contenders coming into Week 7 with 5-1 records. This matchup has the potential to be a Super Bowl preview and should not disappoint.
With this game projected to be a shootout, it would be wise to have one of these star quarterbacks in your captain slot, but which one? The answer is Hurts.
The Eagles appear to be a pass funnel defense because it’s so strong against the run. Tua will be under pressure all night against the Eagles’ pass rush. The Eagles’ defense projects similarly to the Bills, and that’s where we saw the Dolphins give their worst offensive performance so far. It will be difficult for Miami to push the ball downfield to Hill and Waddle.
The Eagles’ offensive line is the best in the NFL. Hurts is set up to boom, as Miami has allowed the 7th highest passer rating. The Dolphins are bottom 10 in passing yards allowed. Hurts also provides the rushing upside that Tua doesn’t.
It’s a no-brainer for me to ride with Hurts in a bounce-back spot at home in a matchup where he will play with a chip on his shoulder.
DeVonta Smith, WR, $7,400
One thing about the NFL I’ve learned is when everyone zigs, you should zag. Smith has been in the headlines for his struggles, as he’s only eclipsed 20 fantasy points once so far.
But he’s in position to get back on track against a poor Dolphins secondary. He ranks 9th in the NFL in deep targets but doesn’t have much to show for it. Miami runs a ton of zone defense, and Smith’s yard per route run increases against zone coverage.
He should see plenty of Eli Apple and he can burn him on multiple occasions. I love that Smith and his fellow former teammate at Alabama, Jaylen Waddle, will be on the same field again as well. Smith will want to show up for his quarterback.
Jeff Wilson, RB, $200
Wilson hasn’t played yet this season, so expectations should be tempered. He practiced fully this week for the first time, and it hasn’t been announced if he will be activated off of IR, but all signs are pointing toward it. With rookie running back De’Von Achane out, the veteran Wilson will slide into backup duties behind Raheem Mostert. Dolphins running backs have exploded this season for 280 fantasy points combined, which is 79 more than any other team!
The SNF matchup isn’t one to get excited about though. The Eagles boast a top-three run defense and have given up just the 2nd fewest fantasy points per game to RBs. The price on Wilson, who can potentially see double-digit touches, is hard to ignore though, and gives you more options on the slate.
This is going to be a great matchup. I believe the Eagles defense up front will eventually be too much for the Dolphins. Hurts should pick apart Miami’s zone defensive scheme, and Swift will find room to run on the Eagles zone runs. The Dolphins offense has been historic, and I expect them to keep this interesting, but ultimately, Miami won’t be able to slow down the methodical Eagles offense. Hurts gets the best of Tua in their first NFL matchup.
Final Score: Eagles 34, Dolphins 20
Captain and flex options for SNF game
We've made it to another Sunday night! After an action-packed day, we cap off another wild weekend with what might be the most lopsided matchup we've seen to this point in 2023. The struggling New York Giants will travel to Buffalo to take on Josh Allen and the Bills for Sunday Night Football.
Bills
Giants
Bills
Giants
The injury report for the Giants reads like a novel. Jones is out and Tyrod Taylor will start in his place. Superstar running back Saquon Barkley is questionable, but he participated in practice all week. If he is active, he’ll likely be limited. The biggest issue for the Giants is their offensive line is in complete shambles. They’re in for a long night.
According to the Contrarian Edge Optimizer, Allen is not surprisingly projected to be the most-owned Captain on the slate over at DraftKings in over 32% of lineups. Diggs projected to Captain 29% of lineups. The next closest projected is the Bills defense at 8.4%.
Regarding flex positions, it's projected to be much more balanced. In Showdown lineups, Taylor is expected to be appear in over 44% of lineups. Cook is projected to be in 27%
The current Vegas total is down to 43.5 points. Each offense plays at a slower than average neutral pace, but we can expect the Bills offense to be on the field much more.
Unfortunately, we must endure the Giants on primetime again but it’s a great opportunity to make this game fun to win some money with our Showdown lineup! The Bills are returning home from their trip to London, and they will be eager to get back on track.
The intriguing story is Brian Daboll returning to face his former team and the quarterback he coached up so well, Josh Allen. According to DVOA, Buffalo is the best 3-2 team of all time. Allen and the Bills are poised to destroy the G-Men.
Stefon Diggs, WR, $18,300
The Optimizer is suggesting placing Diggs in your Captain slot. He is projected to appear in 28.6% of lineups as the captain so it doesn’t necessarily give you an edge, but Diggs should once again dominate. Under defensive coordinator Wink Martindale, the Giants play man-to-man at the fourth-highest rate and are dead last in QB pressures.
Allen is third in yards per attempt and passing grade. Adoree Jackson and rookie Deonte Banks will be tasked in slowing down Diggs. They won’t be able to.
James Cook, RB, $13,800
By rostering Cook in your Captain slot you can likely get Allen and Diggs also in your lineups. Cook hasn’t exactly lit the world on fire but a breakout performance is looming. We all expect Buffalo to get out to an early lead.
The Giants have been the third-most favorable matchups for running backs in RushEPA. New York has allowed over 5 yards per carry and the second-most rushing yards overall. Despite a terrible stat line in Week 5, Cook played on 62% of the snaps. I love the spot to let James cook!
Bills Defense/Special Teams $6,600
We can’t put any trust in any Giant. Waller finally had a solid game in Week 5 and the Bills are without stud linebacker Matt Milano. This could hurt Buffalo defending opposing tight ends as we move further into the season, but Taylor is not instilling fear Sunday night.
The Bills defense brings the 10th best pressure rate into Week 6 and that’s with Von Miller only playing 20 snaps so far this season. The Bills defense has suffered a few significant season-ending injuries, but their defensive line is as strong as ever.
This is a “revenge game” for Taylor, but the current state of the Giants offensive line makes this a smash spot for the Bills defense!
The Bills will crush the Giants. I’m a Giants fan and have zero faith in this team. They are the worst team in the NFL. The injuries are simply too much for them to handle. Buffalo is upset after their loss in London and will look to finish this one early. The one saving grace for the Giants might be the fact that the Bills loved Daboll and likely won’t try to embarrass him too much on national TV.
Final Score: Bills 38, Giants 6
Our predictions for NBA Finals, conferences, divisions
The 2023 NBA season is almost here. The offseason never fails to disappoint, as I call it the best drama in the world. Last season we saw Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets stake their claim at the top, but will they follow that up with the same success?
The Milwaukee Bucks made the surprise move of the summer when they acquired Damian Lillard, thereby becoming the odds-on-favorite to win the NBA championship. The Bucks swept the rug right out from under the Miami Heat, who had been rumored to be the top potential landing spot for Lillard. Still, the Heat won’t go down without a fight if Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo are playing in South Beach.
Quietly, the Boston Celtics have had an extremely strong offseason, getting the ‘Unicorn’ Kristaps Porzingis to play alongside Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown.
Perhaps the most surprising move was the snowball effect of the Lillard trade. Jrue Holiday was sent to Portland in the package for Lillard, and the Blazers quickly flipped Holiday in another trade. The Celtics jumped at the opportunity and acquired Holiday, whom they believe will push them to the next level.
So which franchise will ascend to win the NBA championship?
Following the Lillard trade, the Milwaukee Bucks were immediately pegged as favorites. There is still a looming question of Giannis Antetokounmpo’s future with Milwaukee, but acquiring Lillard certainly puts fear into the Eastern Conference. Dare I say Giannis and Dame are the best inside-outside dual threat since Shaq and Kobe?
More on the NBA:
The Bucks will be tough, but there’s another team in the Eastern Conference that can go toe to toe with them -- the Boston Celtics. They also have a new-look lineup with the additions of Porzingis and Holiday, and All-NBA guards Brown and Tatum were already a powerful tandem.
The Phoenix Suns are primed to make a run at the Nuggets out West after they upgraded their roster. Phoenix acquired Kevin Durant midseason a year ago, and to do so, they squandered any depth they had on its roster. The Suns have taken the offseason to build back its lineup and lengthen its bench. I’m not convinced they have enough on the defensive end to slow down the Nuggets or Warriors in a playoff matchup.
The Milwaukee Bucks are my pick to win the 2024 NBA Championship. Lillard has excellent playoff experience and is the right fit to play alongside two-time MVP Antetokounmpo. Khris Middleton is one of the most underrated players in recent memory and is healthy after dealing with injuries all last season. Milwaukee has unfinished business and a chip on their shoulder after getting bounced in the first round by the Miami Heat. Milwaukee has great depth with their bench, led by Bobby Portis, Malik Beasley, Jae Crowder, and Cam Payne. Many people love the Nuggets to repeat, but it’s a tall task to repeat as champions in any major sport.
Pick: Bucks +380
Spoiler alert --I clearly believe in the Bucks to be crowned Eastern Conference Champions. Lillard is a bona fide superstar pairing with Giannis. The story we’ll hear about all season long is that Giannis is playing without a long-term contract. There will be plenty of incentive for the Bucks to return to the NBA Finals.
The defending Eastern Conference champions aren’t going to sneak up on anyone this season. The Miami Heat sit fifth in Eastern Conference winner odds. They were the big losers of the summer, missing out on the big names. The Knicks are a fun team to watch after a run to the Eastern Conference semifinals last season. Led By Jalen Brunson, it will be interesting to see if the Knicks will be able to duplicate the success. My guess is no.
Surprisingly, the Cavaliers fall next in line behind the Bucks and Celtics. Cleveland has an excellent core of Donovan Mitchell, Darius Garland, Evan Mobley, and Jarrett Allen. The Cavs were bounced out of the playoffs by the Knicks, and they will likely be one of the hungriest teams in the East.
The Eastern Conference will eventually come down to the two juggernauts. Hopefully, we get to see the Bucks and Celtics square off in a 7-game series. During the last playoff run, there were multiple instances that left us questioning the coaching decisions of Joe Mazzulla and the Celtics staff. Mazzulla will be in his second year as Head Coach, but we can’t ignore the poor decision-making we saw last postseason. The Celtics bench depth can’t compare to the Bucks, so ultimately, Milwaukee will represent the Eastern Conference in the NBA Finals.
Prediction: Bucks +175
It’s no secret the Western Conference is deep. There happens to be decent value on a few teams out West. The Nuggets are the favorites alongside the Suns after their dominating postseason run on their way to an NBA Championship. Nikola Jokic is a special player, and the rest of the roster will be returning outside of Bruce Brown. Jamal Murray put together a great season, but the Nuggets will likely require a third superstar to step up if they want to make another deep run.
The Phoenix Suns, led by Devin Booker and Kevin Durant, are breathing down the necks of the Nuggets. The Suns somehow acquired Bradley Beal in a trade that involved Chris Paul and now have arguably a more dynamic Big 3 than we saw in Miami with LeBron, Dwayne Wade, and Chris Bosh. The Suns made another significant trade as they were the third team involved with the Bucks and Trail Blazers that sent Damian Lillard to Milwaukee. Phoenix moved on from Deandre Ayton and was able to add Jusuf Nurkic and Grayson Allen. I’m not convinced the Suns have enough depth still on its roster behind Durant, Booker, and Beal, who have all dealt with injuries in some capacity the last couple of seasons. If the Suns happen to come into the playoffs healthy, it will be difficult for any team to take down the powerhouse trio in the desert.
When I look at the West, I can’t help but look further down the board. Do the Warriors have another championship run in the tank after adding Chris Paul? Golden State isn’t far removed from being the latest greatest NBA dynasty. The Lakers, led by LeBron James, are also set up to truly contend for the first time in a season that wasn’t in the bubble.
The Lakers had a terrific run in the second half of last season that saw them reach the Western Conference Finals. As always, the question is, can LJ and AD remain healthy? The Lakers have one of the most balanced rosters, with an excellent core that includes D’Angelo Russell, Austin Reaves, and Rui Hachimura. LA also added key pieces such as Gabe Vincent, Christian Wood, and Taurean Prince.
Unless Michael Porter Jr. or Aaron Gordon steps up and becomes the third superstar for Denver, I think we’ll see a new team representing the West in the Finals. A Bucks-Lakers Finals would be entertaining and might be our last chance at watching LeBron in the Finals. I believe Rob Pelinka and the Lakers understand the clock is ticking and will do everything they can to make sure LeBron is surrounded by the right pieces to reach the Finals one more time.
Prediction: Lakers +750
Atlantic Division Odds (Via FanDuel)
The Atlantic division is probably the murkiest of them all in the Eastern Conference. Yet, the Boston Celtics will likely be too much for any team to keep up with during the regular season. Boston will look a bit differently from recent years with the additions of Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porzingis. The reigning league MVP Joel Embiid won’t go down without a fight though, as he in the 76ers are a true contender in the East.
Pick: Celtics -240
Central Division Odds (Via FanDuel)
If I weren’t so high on the Bucks, this would be a division with value. The Cavaliers should be even more improved with their excellent young core. The Pacers are one of my favorite teams to surprise season. It’s been three years since Indiana made the playoffs, but I think that ends in 2023. They have a solid group led by Tyrese Haliburton, Myles Turner, and Bruce Brown. The Pacers will be among the play-in teams this season. Ultimately the Bucks will run away with the Central Division crown.
Pick: Bucks -360
Southeast Division Odds (Via FanDuel)
There isn’t much competition for the Miami Heat in the Southeast division, but the Atlanta Hawks will be coached by Quin Snyder for the first full season. Trae Young and Dejounte Murray can be a dynamic guard pairing, but the Heat are still the team to beat in the Southeast. The Magic are an exciting team to keep an eye on, but they have plenty of work to do.
Pick: Heat -190
Northwest Division Odds (Via FanDuel)
The Denver Nuggets should run away with the Northwest Division.
Pick: Nuggets -390
Pacific Division Odds (Via FanDuel)
The Pacific is far and away the deepest division. Every team is a contender in the West. Last season, Sacramento surprised most when they won the division. According to the sportsbooks, the new-look Phoenix Suns, led by the NBA’s newest Big 3, are the favorites to usurp Denver out West. The Suns will require to stay healthy though, as their bench is very thin compared to some of the other teams in the Pacific.
We can never rule out the Dubs. They have one of the deepest rosters in the NBA and will be refueled for another championship run. The biggest maybe in the NBA is the question of health for the Clippers. With a core of Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, and Russell Westbrook, they can compete with any team in the NBA IF they are healthy. That’s not something I’m willing to trust. The Lakers barely made the postseason a year ago, but they got to the Western Conference Finals. They have its best roster entering a season since LeBron joined LA. It will be difficult for the Kings to repeat, and the Suns are an injury away from disaster.
Pick: Warriors +390
Southwest Division Odds (Via FanDuel)
The Southwest is the most intriguing out West. Will Victor Wembanyama make an immediate impact for the Spurs? Will the Rockets make the next step after bringing in free agents Fred VanVleet and Dillon Brooks to play alongside emerging stars Jabari Smith Jr. and Jalen Green? The Mavs' Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving might be the most polarizing backcourt in NBA history. The Memphis Grizzlies are the favorites, but they may stumble early with Ja Morant suspended for the first 25 games and I’m not convinced the addition of Marcus Smart will be enough to make up for it. There are no excuses for Zion Williamson. The Pelicans ranked 8th overall in offense, and they were 10 games over .500 before Zion was injured in the middle of last season.
Pick: Pelicans +210
Captain, contrarian, flex options for the big game
In perhaps the best matchup thus far this season, Dak Prescott and the Dallas Cowboys take on Brock Purdy and the San Francisco 49ers in Santa Clara for Sunday Night Football. Let’s look at the game:
49ers
Cowboys
49ers
RB Elijah Mitchell (Knee) – Out
Cowboys
TE Peyton Hendershot (Ankle) – Out
These injuries aren't game altering. Deebo Samuel has been nursing knee and rib injuries for a couple of weeks now, and it's being reported he won't be 100 percent. He played 87 percent of the snaps last week but failed to receive a single target. He’s not listed on the injury report. Mitchell will miss his second consecutive game which led to a few extra snaps for Jordan Mason.
According to the Contrarian Edge Optimizer, McCaffrey is projected to be the most-owned Captain (43%) on the slate at DraftKings. The next closest projected in ownership is Brock Purdy at 9.5%. Regarding flex positions, it's projected to be much more balanced. In Showdown, 9 players are projected to be owned in over 30% of lineups. This includes both team defenses.
McCaffrey has scored a touchdown in 13 straight games as a 49er, surpassing the legendary Jerry Rice. CMC found paydirt a career-high four times in San Francisco's 35-16 win over the Arizona Cardinals last week.
Entering Week 5, McCaffrey is the highest non-QB in NFL MVP future odds at +1800. Before Week 4, he was +4800 to win MVP. He is the No. 1 scoring running back in fantasy this season, and the Cowboys have allowed the sixth-most explosive runs this season.
The current Vegas total is 45 points, which might be tough to reach as the Cowboys are the fourth slowest, and the 49ers are the slowest in neutral pace. This will be a physical game from start to finish. Last season, the 49ers defeated the Cowboys 19-12 in the divisional round of the playoffs. Both teams have top-five offenses and defenses so far in 2023.
George Kittle, $9,600
The 49ers tight end projected ownership in the captain slot is just 0.6%! He would be a solid contrarian play on Sunday night and a less expensive option you can deploy. On paper, the matchup with the Cowboys offense doesn't look great, but Kittle is set up to produce on primetime after a deeper dive.
The Cowboys play man-to-man most of any NFL team. Brandon Aiyuk leads the 49ers in target share when facing man at 28.6%, and Kittle is second on the team at 20.5%. Aiyuk will have tough matchups against Daron Bland and Stephon Gilmore on the outside.
The Cowboys’ linebackers are aware of McCaffrey and the SF run game. They will likely stack the box to try to slow down CMC, which will let Kittle get open over the middle on play action, leading to big chunk plays and possibly a touchdown.
Dak Prescott, Cowboys
The Cowboys QB has been a glorified game manager through the first four weeks. His average depth of target is the second lowest of any quarterback so far this season at 5.9 yards, and the 49ers’ defense has held opposing quarterbacks to the second-lowest yards per attempt. Opposing quarterbacks are averaging a measly 12.8 fantasy points per game against the Niners’ defense.
49ers Defense/Special Teams $4,000
San Francisco's defense has dominated this season. They have more interceptions than touchdown passes thrown against them through the season's first month. Their run defense should slow down Tony Pollard and the Dallas running game. They have allowed the second-least explosive runs so far.
Prescott threw for just 206 yards and had 2 interceptions in the playoff loss last year in Santa Clara. Most importantly, for the 49ers defense to pay off, they need to get out to an early lead. Prescott has the best quarterback rating playing with a lead, but he drops to 26th when he's playing from behind.
There's no doubt this is the most intriguing matchup so far in 2023. Both sides have Super Bowl aspirations and belong in the conversation. Prescott and the Cowboys’ offense is healthy, so I expect them to perform much better in this game than in the playoff loss last year.
The Cowboys lead the NFL in pressure rate, but Purdy has yet to fold when he's under pressure in the pocket. Cowboys defensive coordinator Dan Quinn and 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan know each other's tendencies well. I expect the 49ers to win, but the Cowboys will keep it close and gain plenty of respect around the NFL.
Final Score: 49ers 23, Cowboys 20
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