Tom Viera

Tom Viera is an experienced betting and fantasy sports columnist. He brings a vast knowledge of all things NFL, MLB, and NBA. He lives and breathes player props. During the NFL season, he can be found on Twitter (@Tom_Viera) sharing his successful anytime touchdown picks.

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Tom Viera

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Playoff baseball! It’s finally here. What a wild ride it’s been. The Wild Card round kicks off Tuesday with the Tampa Bay Rays hosting the Texas Rangers, followed by the Twins vs. Blue Jays. Meanwhile, the Brewers host the Diamondbacks in the National League, and finally, the Phillies will play the Marlins.

The Wild Card round are best-of-3-game series. So, we still have plenty of options on PrizePicks and Underdog and I’ve narrowed down the best picks to make here.

Tyler Glasnow 7.5 Strikeouts (More) – PrizePicks

Glasnow has been one of my favorite pitchers for years, and that’s coming from a Yankee fan. He hasn’t made a postseason start at Tropicana since 2020 and had at least 8 strikeouts in 3 of 5 playoff games there that year.

This season, Glasnow has finally been healthy. He’s exceeded this number in 60% of games pitched at home during the regular season. The Rangers have a dangerous lineup, but they are in the bottom half of MLB in strikeouts per game.

Yandy Diaz, Rays, 1B, 6.5 Fantasy Score (More) – PrizePicks

Yandy is Tampa’s most consistent hitter and is grossly underappreciated. He has the second-best batting average at home (.363), behind Luis Arraez (.376), and has a 1.015 OPS at Tropicana.

Diaz has been one of MLB’s hottest hitters since the All-Star break, and he will go up against lefty Jordan Montgomery. Yandy has the third-highest batting average (.355) against southpaws, and has surpassed this number in 6 of his last 8 games at the Trop.

Kevin Gausman 6.5 Strikeouts (Higher) – Underdog

The veteran righty went over this number in 61% of his starts this season, but his Ks fall off on the road compared to when he’s at Rogers Centre. The Twins have struck out more than any other team. In two starts vs the Twins, Gausman surpassed 6.5 Ks once.

I trust the team with the most strikeouts at home this season, during day games, and against right-handed pitching will continue into the postseason.

Jesus Luzardo 4 Hits Allowed (Higher) – Underdog

The lefty will take the mound for the Miami Marlins to open their series with the Phillies. He allowed more than 4 hits in over 60% of his starts in 2023. In his lone start at Citizens Bank Park, he allowed 8 hits. His home-road splits suggest fading him when he’s on away, as he’s allowed over a hit an inning on the road.

More on the MLB Playoffs:

Bryce Harper 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (Higher) - Underdog

At home, Harper is batting .352 with a 1.081 OPS. He has awful numbers in 9 at-bats against Luzardo, but he has success against Miami relievers. Harper has exceeded this number in 8 of his last 12 home games that weren’t stopped short because of injury or ejection.

Last postseason, Harper turned things up and posted historic numbers. I expect him to do the same in 2023 with unfinished business for him and the Phillies.

Brandon Pfaadt 4 Hits Allowed (More) – PrizePicks

The Diamondbacks are in trouble, having to start the playoffs with Pfaadt on the mound. If they don’t put many runs on the board, the Brewers will make quick work of them in this series.

The 24-year-old righty allowed more than 4 hits in 13 of 19 appearances during the regular season, and don’t let his improved ERA down the stretch fool you. The Brewers don’t have the deepest or most intimidating lineup, but they’ve been seeing the ball well. They closed out the last month of the season with the 7th-best batting average in MLB.

On Sunday Night Football, Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs are on the East Coast to take on the New York Jets.

Game

New York Jets vs. Kansas City Chiefs, 8:20 pm ET

Betting Odds (DraftKings)
  • Line: Chiefs -8.5, Jets +8.5
  • Moneyline: Chiefs (-410), Jets (+320)
  • Over/Under: 41
Team Ranks (2023)

Jets

  • Points for: 14 (32nd)
  • Points Allowed: 20.3 (12th)

Chiefs

  • Points For: 26 (9th)
  • Points Allowed: 13.3 (4th)
Key Injuries to Watch

Jets

  • DB Tony Adams (Hamstring) – Out
  • G Wes Schweitzer (Concussion) -- Out

Chiefs

  • LB Nick Bolton (Ankle) – Out
  • CB Jaylen Watson (Shoulder) - Out

The injuries aren’t considered altering for either side. Bolton is probably the most significant loss, but his absence likely won’t affect the Chiefs’ ability to keep the Jets’ struggling offense grounded.

Captain Prices (DraftKings)
  • Patrick Mahomes, QB $18,600
  • Travis Kelce, TE, $16,500
  • Garrett Wilson, WR, $14,400
  • Zach Wilson QB, $13,500
  • Isiah Pacheco, RB, $12,600
  • Breece Hall, RB, $11,700
  • Jerick McKinnon, RB, $10,200
Flex Prices (DraftKings)
  • Patrick Mahomes, QB $12,400
  • Travis Kelce, TE, $11,000
  • Garrett Wilson, WR, $9,600
  • Zach Wilson QB, $9,000
  • Isiah Pacheco, RB, $8,400
  • Breece Hall, RB, $7,800
  • Jerick McKinnon, RB, $6,800

According to the Contrarian Edge Optimizer, Patrick Mahomes is projected to be the most-owned Captain on the slate over at DraftKings -- 43%, with KC tight end Travis Kelce next at 24.5%.

Regarding flex positions, it’s projected to be much more balanced. In Showdown lineups, seven players are projected to be owned in over 30% of lineups.

This is Mahomes’ first career game at MetLife Stadium. He and the Chiefs offense must come with their best, because the Jets’ defense is its strength.

Offensively, the Jets send out 2021 No. 2 overall pick Zach Wilson to lead a unit that has been pitiful. He has the lowest QBR (34.4) in the NFL since he entered the league. The Jets rank last in points scored, total yards, and first downs. And the Chiefs’ defense are No. 4 in points allowed.

The Chiefs are an 8.5-point favorite, and Mahomes has a 37-3 won-loss record in games where he’s a touchdown favorite or greater.

Captain Option

Travis Kelce, Chiefs, $16,500 - Captain Slot

With Mahomes projected to be the highest-owned Captain, Kelce is a great alternative in lineups. The Optimizer agrees. A Mahomes-Kelce stack is practically required.

Mahomes and the Chiefs got things back on track against a terrible Bears defense in Week 3 as he threw for 272 yards and three touchdowns, Kelce was on the receiving end of one of them.

The Jets have a complete defense, but they have allowed the fifth-most yards and three touchdowns to tight ends.

Jets DC Robert Saleh’s defenses have been susceptible against tight ends since he was with San Francisco. Going back to last season, Kelce has scored in five straight games.

Cheaper Options

Rashee Rice, Chiefs, $4,800

I like this rookie receiver to get involved. The Chiefs running backs won’t have room to run against a Jets defense that is allowing the second-lowest yards after contact and the fourth-fewest explosive runs. This leads me to lean towards another Chiefs pass catcher, and Rice is my favorite of the group.

The Jets’ defense has been stellar defending receivers since the start of last season, but they have a small hole defending the slot. Rice will run most of his routes against Michael Carter there.

Last week, we saw Rice with multiple red zone targets, and he even had a touchdown that was called on the field overturned with the ruling that he was down at the goal line. He trailed only Kelce in targets and receptions last week. We can see Rice leading the crowded KC receiver room Sunday night.

Chiefs Defense/Special Teams $5,200

The Chiefs’ defense appears to be the real deal to combine with its high-powered offense, and the Jets have the worst offense in the NFL. They have converted only three of their last 24 third downs.

Prediction

The last time Mahomes faced the Jets, the Chiefs won 35-9 at Arrowhead. I expect a similar outcome. If the Chiefs offensive line can keep the Jets pass rush at bay, Mahomes will have a good night.

Mahomes and Kelce are approaching Drew Brees and Jimmy Graham for the most touchdown connections between a QB and TE.

Final Score: Chiefs 30, Jets 13

October baseball! Not quite the playoffs yet but it’s the last day of the regular season. No. 162. The marathon ends.

The 12-team MLB playoff field is set. In the National League we have the Braves, Dodgers, Brewers, Phillies, Marlins, and Diamondbacks. In the American League we have the Orioles, Twins, Rangers, Astros, Blue Jays, and the Rays.

There’s still Wild Card seeding to be decided. The games today that can affect Wild Card seeding are the Blue Jays vs. Rays and the Astros vs. Diamondbacks. We have a beautiful 14-game slate of games to choose from with every game scheduled to start at 3 pm ET.

There are plenty of guys who won’t play in Game 162 but we’re here to give you the best foundational building blocks you’ll need to construct your lineups around.

Weather Report

Mother nature got the message today and is allowing immaculate baseball weather across the country.

Top Priced Starting Pitchers (DraftKings)
  • Kevin Gausman vs. TB: $11,500
  • George Kirby vs. TEX: $9,700
  • Kyle Bradish vs. BOS: $9,600
  • Eduardo Rodriguez vs. CLE: $9,400
  • Bobby Miller @ SF: $8,900

The starting pitching options on the final day aren’t the sexiest. There are some decent arms taking the mound, but I’m not convinced and more importantly, neither is the Contrarian Edge Optimizer that any of the top arms are worth paying up for.

If we forced to have one of the top priced starters in our lineups, I’d roll with E-Rod. Rodriguez has had an interesting season. He turned down a trade to the Dodgers at the deadline that would have seen him pitch in the playoffs.

Instead, he chose to stay in Detroit. Baffling, but the All-Star is coming off a 7-inning outing in which he didn’t allow a run. Sunday, he faces a Cleveland lineup that has the second-lowest batting average (.232) and the lowest OPS (.665) against lefties this season.

He is 3-0 in his three starts against Cleveland this season. He has thrown 21.2 innings and has allowed just 1 earned run. Just pure dominance over the Guardians lineup.

Sneaky Option

Reid Detmers vs. OAK: $7,300

The lefty has three straight starts where he has accrued at least 20 fantasy points. His numbers don’t jump off the screen, but he’s been solid over his last 7 outings as he’s posted a 2.41 ERA.

He will face the Oakland Athletics, not a bad opponent if you intend to close out the season on a high note. Oakland is just as bad against lefties as the Guardians are. They are the only team with a lower batting average against lefties in MLB at .230.

Strangely, today is Detmers' first start against the divisional opponent.

Michael King vs. KC: $8,000

You know I had to call on King. As a Yankee fan, he’s been one of the few bright spots in the second half of the season. He’s made seven straight starts after pitching much of his MLB career out of the bullpen and didn't allow more than 1 run in those 7 outings.

He’s posted a miniscule 1.04 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, and his strikeout to walk ratio is outstanding at 47:9 KK/BB across 34.1 innings. His strikeout rate is up to 30.6% and a matchup with the Royals own a 23.1% strikeout rate.

Stack Attack

Padres @ White Sox (Jose Urena)

Among disappointing teams in 2023, the Padres at the top. They can end their season on a high note against Jose Urena, who has bounced around the league for the last two seasons.

In 9 starts this season he has a 6.04 ERA and has given up a .520 slugging percentage. The Optimizer suggests getting lefties in your lineup like Soto and Choi, probably because lefties have a .602 slugging percentage against him this season.

Chicago is a hitter-friendly park so we can trust the Padres to do damage.

  • 3B/SS Manny Machado $5,200
  • 1B Ji Man Choi $2,700
  • OF Juan Soto $5,500
  • OF Fernando Tatis Jr. $5,600
  • 1B/OF Jurickson Profar $3,100
  • SS Xander Bogaerts $4,800

We’re about to enter the final weekend of the season. It’s been a crazy ride, and we only have a few days left to select our Underdog, and Prizepicks plays from a full slate of games.

The Wild Card races are as hot as ever. The highest stakes matchups are between the Cubs and Braves, with Chicago fighting for an NL Wild Card spot. Meanwhile, in the American League, the Mariners host the West-leading Rangers to kick off a massive 4-game series that may see one of these teams knocked out.

There are plenty of options on Prizepicks and Underdog, but I’ve narrowed down the best picks.

Luke Weaver 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (More) – PrizePicks

Weaver is with his third team this season, and for good reason. He has been terrible since 2020. He has allowed at least three earned runs in 19 of 28 appearances. In two of those 28, he was used as an opener, so realistically, that number is 19 of 26 – a 73% rate. He faces a Blue Jays lineup battling for the final AL Wild Card spot. The Jays bats have struggled this season, but Weaver will also struggle.

Sonny Gray 2 Earned Runs Allowed (Lower) – Underdog

Sonny likes it when it’s sunny. His ERA is a miniscule 1.77 in 12 day games, and first pitch is 1:10 pm ET at Target Field. He faces an Athletics lineup that has scored the second-fewest runs in the league over the last month. Gray has gone under this number in six of his last eight starts and has the third-lowest ERA in MLB. The Twins may use this as a tune-up for their postseason campaign and not ask Gray to go deep into the game and risk the over.

Bryce Harper 7.5 Fantasy Score (More) -- PrizePicks

At home, Harper is batting an insane .354 with a 1.083 OPS. He will face Pirates pitcher Luis Ortiz, who has mostly struggled in his young career. He especially has had trouble with left-handed hitters, with opponents batting .340 with a .962 OPS. Harper has gone over this number in five of his last six games.

J.D. Martinez 2 Total Bases (Higher) -- Underdog

If you’ve followed along this month, you understand how easy it is to back the Dodgers. They have one more matchup at Coors Field, so we’re taking the opportunity to back some Dodgers hitters again. They face Chris Flexen, who has been smacked around by righties for a .344 batting average and 1.010 OPS. Martinez is the reigning NL Player of the Week. He’s 9 for 24 at Coors this season with three homers and is 2 for 6 in his career against Flexen.

Mookie Betts 11 Fantasy Points (Higher) -- Underdog

At Coors Field, Flexen has a 5.91 ERA, allowing 37 hits in 32 innings. Eleven fantasy points is wild, but if there’s anyone we should trust to get there, it’s Mookie. He has exceeded this number in three of five games at Coors. The Rockies bullpen is awful with a league-high 5.33 ERA.

Julio Rodriguez 0.5 Runs (More) -- PrizePicks

How do we not back Julio after last night’s drama? I’m opting for a run because he has struggled against Texas. Julio has had more success against left-handed pitching with a .313 batting average, and he will face Jordan Montgomery, who he is 1 for 3 against with a double.

Over the last month, J-Rod has scored the 10th most runs in MLB, and that number stays the same in divisional games, scoring the 10th most against divisional opponents. The Mariners are fighting for their playoff lives.

We’re in the final week of the season and need to take advantage of every opportunity we have left. There is a beautiful slate of games for us to choose from Tuesday. The Astros and Mariners will battle late at night for their playoff lives. We also have a day-night doubleheader between the Dodgers and Rockies at Coors Field. There are plenty of options on PrizePicks and Underdog, but I’ve narrowed down the best picks to make here.

Mookie Betts 3 Hits + Runs + RBIs (Higher) -- Underdog

Backing the Dodgers is fun and easy to do confidently, especially against a starting pitcher like Chase Anderson. The 35-year-old veteran has struggled in his career against the guys the Dodgers will have in their lineup in the first game of Tuesday’s doubleheader.

Oddly enough, he has pitched better at Coors Field this season, but guys like Mookie, Freeman, and J.D. Martinez have raked at Coors. Betts is 11 for 27 at Coors this season with 7 RBIs, 7 runs, and 5 extra-base hits.

J.D. Martinez 0.5 RBIs (Higher) -- Underdog

Did I mention the Rockies bullpen has the highest ERA in baseball? Well, they do at 5.33! With a doubleheader, they will likely use plenty of arms in their pen. J.D. was just named NL Player of the Week after going 11 for 24 with 5 home runs, 3 doubles, 12 RBIs, and a 1.708 OPS. He’s 4 for 13 in his career with a HR. against the Rockies projected starter Chase Anderson. He’s crushed the ball at Coors this season, going 7 for 15 with 3 homers.

Bryce Harper 7.5 Hitter Fantasy Score (More) -- PrizePicks

The Phillies lineup has been on fire at home. This is an obvious spot to attack today. Philadelphia will face the Pirates and starting pitcher Mitch Keller. Keller has struggled in two of his last road starts. On the season, his ERA jumps to 5.49 on the road as opposed to 2.90 ERA at home. Harper has mashed at Citizens Bank with a .348 B.A., 1.057 OPS. He’s 4 for 9 in his career versus Keller with 2 doubles. He has topped 7.5 fantasy score in 8 of his last 11 home games.

Justin Steele 5.5 Hits Allowed (More) -- PrizePicks

The young lefty Steele has had an excellent 2023 season. He pushed for the NL Cy Young, but it has slipped away from him over his last two starts. He’s gone back-to-back starts, allowing 6 Earned. He has allowed at least 6 hits in 11 of 13 starts since the All-Star break. In his lone start this season against the Braves, he allowed 8 hits. Atlanta has the second-highest B.A. at home this season (.279) and the best B.A. versus left-handed pitching (.288). We can trust the Braves.

Ozzie Albies 1.5 Total Bases (Higher) -- Underdog

Albies has mashed lefties this season. He has a .384 batting average against left-handed pitching, and over the last week, he’s batting .407 with a 1.063 OPS. He is 2 for 3 in his career against Steele. Albies has topped this number in 9 of his last 11 games!

Gunnar Henderson 0.5 Runs Scored (Higher) -- Underdog

The rookie is tied with the third-most runs and sixth in total bases over the last month and has scored at least one run in 11 of his last 16 home games. He has one at-bat in his career against Nationals starting pitcher Josiah Gray with a walk. Henderson . Gray has been tough of late, but he has allowed at least 3 runs in 5 of his last 8 starts, and when he’s out of the game, the Nationals bullpen owns the 5th-highest ERA (5.01).

We have a full slate of games Sunday across MLB, including a day-night doubleheader between the Braves and Nationals. There are a few spots with massive playoff implications as the Rangers host the Mariners with 1.5 games separating them, and the Blue Jays and Rays continue to jockey for Wild Card positioning.

There are plenty of guys who won’t play, and that’s September baseball, so remain flexible. I’ll dive into the foundational building blocks you need to construct your lineups around.

Weather Report

The effects of Tropical Storm Ophelia will be felt in the Northeast. Mainly, Philadelphia and the Bronx are two spots we’re keeping a close eye on.

Injury Report

Luis Arraez, leg – He left Saturday’s game early. It’s uncertain if he will be back in the lineup.

Tony Kemp, ankle – It was announced yesterday that Kemp will be out indefinitely with an ankle injury.

Randy Arozarena, quad – He missed Saturday’s clash with the Jays and it’s currently unknown if he will be in the lineup.

Top-Priced Starting Pitchers (DraftKings)

  • Spencer Strider @. WAS: $12,900
  • Freddy Peralta @ MIA: $11,200
  • Zac Gallen @ NYY: $10,000
  • Joe Ryan Vs. LAA: $9,500
  • Nathan Eovaldi vs. SEA: $9,100

There’s no denying how great Strider has been. In his last two starts, he faced a deep Phillies lineup and went 7 innings in each start, allowing 4 hits in both. He struck out 11 and 9 batters in each outing. He put himself into the history books as he officially owns the most strikeouts of any pitcher in their first 50 starts since 1893! The Contrarian Edge Optimizer is not suggesting rostering Strider today though. Likely due to the insane $12,900 salary.

The Optimizer again isn’t considering the second-highest salaried pitcher today, Freddy Peralta. My assumption is that the Brewers won’t be looking for Freddy to go deep into the game as they have locked up the NL Central division crown. He has been great of late, posting a 1.96 ERA over his last 10 starts. Despite some great names on today’s board, we’re going to look to roster some cheaper options at starting pitcher.

Sneaky Option

Hunter Brown vs. KC: $8,800

There are plenty of cheaper options at starting pitcher if we don’t want to pay up for guys like Strider. Brown is an obvious choice. You see the Astros are playing at home against the Royals, and you gravitate to that spot. Do you want someone who can strike people out? Brown is your guy. The 25-year-old has had some rough starts of late, but he’s had at least 5 strikeouts in 6 straight starts. On the surface, the Royals aren’t a perfect spot for strikeouts, but on the road, they have the fifth-most per game, and they have the lowest batting average in the league in away games.

Jordan Wicks vs. COL: $7,000

The 24-year-old lefty Wicks will toe the rubber for the Cubs today at Wrigley. He gets to face the struggling Rockies, which he recently threw 6 innings against on the road and allowed just 3 hits. He has a 2.67 ERA through his first 5 career starts. The Rockies have the fourth most strikeouts since the All-Star break and have the third-lowest batting average against lefties this season!

Stack Attack

Cubs vs. Rockies (Ty Blach)

We’ll stay at Wrigley and stack Cubbies bats against the veteran lefty Blach. Multiple Cubs hitters have had previous success facing Blach. In 2 of his last 3 starts, he’s allowed 3 homeruns! In September alone, he’s given up 19 runs in 19.2 innings. I would like to see Nico Hoerner $5,700 in lineups as he’s the best Cubs bat. He’s hitting .287 with 42 steals. It doesn’t hurt that he’s 3 for 4 in his career versus Blach. Believe it or not, but Cody Bellinger has spanked lefties this season. He has a .342 average when facing left-handed pitching versus .290 against righties. He’s hitting .333 in 24 at-bats against Blach. Cheaper outfield options like Ian Happ and Suzuki are really great pivots on Sunday.

  • 2B Nico Hoerner $5,700
  • 1B/OF Cody Bellinger $6,300
  • 3B/OF Chris Morel $4,900
  • SS Dansby Swanson $5,100
  • OF Ian Happ $4,600
  • OF Seiya Suzuki $4,400

Astros vs. Royals (Steven Cruz)

As I said earlier, it’s natural to gravitate towards the Astros when they are at home facing the Royals, and in this case, it’s smart too. The Contrarian Edge Optimizer even agrees to stack Astros bats today. Cruz is going to be an opener for Kansas City today, meaning they will likely go to their bullpen in the second or third inning. The Royals pen has the 7th-highest home runs per 9 innings and the third-highest ERA in MLB. If you opt for cheaper starting pitching options, you can stack guys like Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman. Tucker has a hit in 13 of 19 games in September, but he has struggled in the month overall, hitting just .214. He can be in for a bounce-back spot today. Altuve has been red-hot over the last week, hitting .360 with 4 extra-base hits.

  • 1B Jose Abreu $3,900
  • 2B Jose Altuve $6,100
  • 3B Alex Bregman $5,400
  • SS Jeremy Pena $4,200
  • OF Yordan Alvarez $6,000
  • OF Kyle Tucker $5,800

We’ve made it to Sunday night! After an action-packed day, we cap off a wild weekend with an AFC battle. Kenny Pickett and the Pittsburgh Steelers travel to Las Vegas to take on Davante Adams and the Raiders for Sunday Night Football.

Game

Las Vegas Raiders vs. Pittsburgh Steelers, 8:20 pm ET

Betting Odds (DraftKings)

  • Line: Raiders -2.5, Steelers +2.5
  • Moneyline: Raiders (-142), Steelers (+120)
  • Over/Under: 43
Team Ranks (2023)

Raiders

  • Points for: 13.5 (30th)
  • Points Allowed: 27.0 (25th)

Steelers

  • Points For: 16.5 (26th)
  • Points Allowed: 26.0 (23rd)
Key Injuries to Watch

Raiders

  • DE Tyree Wilson (Illness) – Questionable

Steelers

  • WR Gunner Olszewski (Concussion) – Out

It should be noted that Raiders wide receiver Jakobi Meyers has been dealing with a concussion but has practiced fully, which is a good sign he will be cleared to play on Sunday night. The other major injury note is the Steelers defensive line will be without standout defensive tackle Cam Heyward for about two months, leaving a massive hole up the middle in their defense.

Captain Prices (DraftKings)
  • Davante Adams, WR $17,400
  • Josh Jacobs, RB, $16,200
  • Jimmy Garoppolo, QB, $15,300
  • Kenny Pickett, QB, $14,700
  • George Pickens, WR, $13,800
  • Najee Harris, RB, $13,200
  • Jakobi Meyers, WR, $12,900
Flex Prices (DraftKings)
  • Davante Adams, WR $11,600
  • Josh Jacobs, RB, $10,800
  • Jimmy Garoppolo, QB, $10,200
  • Kenny Pickett, QB, $9,800
  • George Pickens, WR, $9,200
  • Najee Harris, RB, $8,800
  • Jakobi Meyers, WR, $8,600

According to the Contrarian Edge Optimizer, Davante Adams is projected to be the most-owned Captain on the slate over at DraftKings. Adams is the highest projected owned overall in over 55 percent of lineups, including the flex. There are not many surprises expected when it comes to ownership for Showdown lineups.

Typically, a quarterback will be the most expensive option, but sometimes, when Davante Adams is on the field, he gets the nod as the priciest option. The Steelers defense has allowed the 11th-most yards to receivers through the first two weeks. Adams is a target and touchdown scoring machine. Slot receiver Jakobi Meyers should return to the field after missing Week 2, and this will only benefit Adams.

The quarterback battle between veteran Jimmy Garoppolo and second-year man Kenny Pickett is intriguing. Jimmy G will make his first start at home as a member of the Raiders. Pickett has struggled in his first two starts, but he’s faced arguably two top-five defenses. On paper, the Raider defense should allow Pickett and the Steeler offense to get back on track.

The Steelers offense features two running backs, Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. It’s difficult to trust and assess which guy will have the greater impact on Sunday night. Warren appears to be more explosive, but his 47 snaps trails Harris (62 snaps). Warren is second on the Steelers in targets with 12.

There’s not much to note regarding the tight ends in this one as the Steelers are a top defense defending tight ends, and Pat Freiermuth is off to a slow start this season. His target share has gone from 18% last season down to just 7% through the first two weeks of the season.

Strong Captain Option

George Pickens, Steelers WR, $13,800 - Captain Slot

Pickens has a chance to go bonkers. The Raider defense has allowed a league-high completion rate and the second-highest passing touchdown rate. The Raiders have also allowed a league-high 84% catch rate to wide receivers.

The second-year wide receiver led Pittsburgh with a massive 34.5% target share in the Week 2 win and scored a long touchdown. At 6-foot-3, he has the catch radius that quarterbacks love throwing to. Pickett recently said, “I’m going to put in in his zip code, and he’ll do the rest. That’s kind of been the MO here since I’ve started, so he’s an unbelievable player. Just continue to put the ball, throw it his way, and let him do the rest.”

The Pickett-to-Pickens connection will be on full display Sunday night. If the Raiders choose to double him with safety help, the next two receiving options will play a major role. My favorite and the Contrarian Edge Optimizer’s favorite of the next is Allen Robinson.

Cheaper Options

Allen Robinson $5,000

With Diontae Johnson out for at least two more weeks, Robinson will continue to see increased work. As WR3 coming into the season, he has been thrust into a full-time role.

Pickens is the truth and future, but the veteran Robinson actually played the most snaps of any Steeler skill position player in Week 2. He had a poor game, but that’s mostly due to the Browns strength in the secondary. In Week 1, he reeled in 5 of 8 targets for 64 yards.

We can expect similar production this week, and if he somehow finds the endzone, it will be even sweeter.

Calvin Austin $4,200

Austin is in a similar boat as Robinson. It’s likely Pickens will lead the Steelers in receiving Sunday night, but one of these two will also play a major role. Austin played 6 fewer snaps than Robinson and 5 fewer than Pickens last week. Expect similar snap counts for the trio and at least two of these guys to produce respectable numbers, with a chance of one leading the scoring.

Prediction

Both teams are 1-1. It’s surprising to see the Raiders favored, as many had the Steelers as a playoff contender in the AFC. Both offenses have struggled, but they have faced tough defenses. Each side has playmakers, and both defenses have struggled. This should be a big night for Josh Jacobs against a bad Pittsburgh run defense, but in the end, I expect Kenny Pickett and George Pickens to connect on big plays that will be enough to squeak out a win.

Final Score: Steelers 24, Raiders 23

There is a short schedule of MLB games Thursday, including two day games as the Rays host the Angels and the Cardinals host the Brewers. There doesn’t appear to be a marquee matchup, but there are playoff implications.

Mookie Betts, Dodgers OF, 0.5 Runs (Higher) – Underdog

Thursday is Dodger Day. It’s easy to back LA when they face a struggling young pitcher -- Giants 22-year-old lefty Kyle Harrison. He’s allowed at least four runs in his last three starts. Betts is top five in on-base percentage and is one of two players to score a run in over 60% of games played this season.

Freddie Freeman, Dodgers 1B, 0.5 Single (Higher) – Underdog

Freddie is .344 against left-handed pitching and is tied with the fifth-most singles in MLB. He has cooled off in September by his standards, but a matchup with Harrison doesn’t scare us away.

Yandy Diaz, Rays, 1B, 7 Fantasy Points (More) – PrizePicks

Yandy has been the Rays’ most consistent hitter and is extremely underappreciated as one of MLB’s best. He has the second-best batting average at home (.354) and only Luis Arraez has a better average at home. He’s surpassed this number in five straight games at the Trop.

Nico Hoerner, Cubs, 2B, 0.5 Strikeouts – (Lower) Underdog

Hoerner has been one of my favorite picks all season. He’s up to 15th in batting average (.286) and is eighth in strikeout percentage (12.6%). He will face the Pirates’ Johan Oviedo, who’s had highs and lows this season. Hoerner is 5 for 10 against him with zero strikeouts.

Gerrit Cole, Yankees, SP, 4.5 Hits Allowed (Higher) – Underdog

As a Yankee fan, this isn’t what I want to see for Cole as he looks to lock up the AL Cy Young, but the numbers don’t lie. He has allowed at least five hits in five of his last nine starts. The Blue Jays’ project nicely against Cole with Vlad Guerrero Jr. (.357), Alejandro Kirk (.438), and George Springer (.333). We know Cole will likely give the Yankees length and a long leash means more opportunities for the Jays to rack up a few hits.

David Peterson, Mets, SP, 4.5 Hits (More) – PrizePicks

I considered going with Nick Castellanos after his 2-home run game, but instead we’ll ride with the entire Phillies lineup. I expect he will contribute, but in case he doesn’t we have plenty of other bats. Mets lefty Peterson has allowed at least six hits in three straight outings and has been smashed on the road. The Phillies have one of the best lineups hitting at home against lefties.

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