TV outlines his top PrizePicks and Underdog choices
We’re about to enter the final weekend of the season. It’s been a crazy ride, and we only have a few days left to select our Underdog, and Prizepicks plays from a full slate of games.
The Wild Card races are as hot as ever. The highest stakes matchups are between the Cubs and Braves, with Chicago fighting for an NL Wild Card spot. Meanwhile, in the American League, the Mariners host the West-leading Rangers to kick off a massive 4-game series that may see one of these teams knocked out.
There are plenty of options on Prizepicks and Underdog, but I’ve narrowed down the best picks.
Weaver is with his third team this season, and for good reason. He has been terrible since 2020. He has allowed at least three earned runs in 19 of 28 appearances. In two of those 28, he was used as an opener, so realistically, that number is 19 of 26 – a 73% rate. He faces a Blue Jays lineup battling for the final AL Wild Card spot. The Jays bats have struggled this season, but Weaver will also struggle.
Sonny likes it when it’s sunny. His ERA is a miniscule 1.77 in 12 day games, and first pitch is 1:10 pm ET at Target Field. He faces an Athletics lineup that has scored the second-fewest runs in the league over the last month. Gray has gone under this number in six of his last eight starts and has the third-lowest ERA in MLB. The Twins may use this as a tune-up for their postseason campaign and not ask Gray to go deep into the game and risk the over.
At home, Harper is batting an insane .354 with a 1.083 OPS. He will face Pirates pitcher Luis Ortiz, who has mostly struggled in his young career. He especially has had trouble with left-handed hitters, with opponents batting .340 with a .962 OPS. Harper has gone over this number in five of his last six games.
If you’ve followed along this month, you understand how easy it is to back the Dodgers. They have one more matchup at Coors Field, so we’re taking the opportunity to back some Dodgers hitters again. They face Chris Flexen, who has been smacked around by righties for a .344 batting average and 1.010 OPS. Martinez is the reigning NL Player of the Week. He’s 9 for 24 at Coors this season with three homers and is 2 for 6 in his career against Flexen.
At Coors Field, Flexen has a 5.91 ERA, allowing 37 hits in 32 innings. Eleven fantasy points is wild, but if there’s anyone we should trust to get there, it’s Mookie. He has exceeded this number in three of five games at Coors. The Rockies bullpen is awful with a league-high 5.33 ERA.
How do we not back Julio after last night’s drama? I’m opting for a run because he has struggled against Texas. Julio has had more success against left-handed pitching with a .313 batting average, and he will face Jordan Montgomery, who he is 1 for 3 against with a double.
Over the last month, J-Rod has scored the 10th most runs in MLB, and that number stays the same in divisional games, scoring the 10th most against divisional opponents. The Mariners are fighting for their playoff lives.
Brilliant pitching and stack options for Thursday
Welcome to the final Thursday slate of the MLB season! We have some great hitting matchups tonight with Coors Field and some ho-hum starting pitchers on the slate. Let’s dig in!
The Royals and Tigers game was suspended due to rain on Wednesday, but everything looks okay for both contests.
Tony Kemp – Kemp has missed the last four games due to a right ankle sprain. If he is not ready to go against the Twins, JJ Bleday will likely patrol left field.
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. – Gurriel Jr. was scratched from Wednesday afternoon’s affair against the White Sox with left shoulder discomfort. D-backs manager Torey Lovullo said he felt tightness while taking batting practice but he is expected to rejoin the lineup on Thursday.
Ryan Mountcastle – The slugger was activated prior to Wednesday’s game but remained on the bench with lefty Patrick Corbin on the bump for the Nationals. Chris Sale takes the ball for the Red Sox but one would expect Mountcastle to start.
Luis Arraez – He has missed the last three games with a left ankle sprain. It remains unlikely that the leader in batting average in the National League will be ready to go.
Jesús Luzardo – Luzardo ($9,000 DK/ $9,700 FD) has been outstanding in his second full season with the Marlins. The 25-year-old has a 3.73 ERA, 3.75 SIERA, 27 percent strikeout rate, and 7 percent walk rate over 171 1/3 innings. He has started to show the wear and tear of the longest season of his career, but he did toss six shutout frames with eight strikeouts against the Braves two starts ago. The Mets are the 20th best offenses against southpaws and with what feels like a must-win game for Miami, Luzardo could have a big night in the Big Apple.
Chris Bassitt – While he doesn’t get as many strikeouts as many other starters, Chris Bassitt ($8,600 DK/ $9,500 FD) is as reliable as they come. On the season, he has a 3.74 ERA, 4.36 SIERA, 22 percent strikeout rate and seven percent walk rate over 192 1/3 innings. If you remove the first start of the season where he was blasted for 10 hits and nine earned runs against the Cardinals, his line drops to a 3.38 ERA with a 1.16 WHIP. The Yankees have been playing better since they transitioned towards a youth movement but Bassitt feels safe at his price point.
Luke Weaver – Once a promising young pitcher, Weaver has been a dreadful starter and is now on his third team, the Yankees. The Blue Jays are attempting to lock up a place in the playoffs. Over the last 14 days, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been outstanding. He is hitting .263/.391.658 with five homers and 10 RBI. With Weaver’s elevated HR/Barrel ratio (71 percent), it seems like we could see another homer from Vlad tonight. While Bo Bichette hasn’t been as good as Vlad, he still should be able to rack up a couple of hits and runs scored hitting at the top of the Blue Jays lineup.
Dodgers vs. Rockies (Chris Flexen)
There were a couple of years when Chris Flexen was a good back-end starter, but those years are long gone. He has spent time with the Mariners and Rockies this season, posting a 7.01 ERA, 5.08 SIERA, 1.69 WHIP, and a dreadfully low eight percent K-BB ratio.
The right-hander faces one of MLB's best offenses in the Dodgers. In any other season, Freddie Freeman would be in the discussion for NL MVP, but even with hitting .333/.412/.568 with 28 homers and 23 stolen bases, he will likely finish third. After a rough late spring/early summer, James Outman has looked fantastic as of late, hitting .289/.347/.600 with four homers and nine runs scored since September 15.
While Jason Heyward has been on the struggle bus recently, this pitching matchup in Coors Field is too tantalizing not to take. On the season, the veteran outfielder is hitting .270/.343/.481 with 15 homers and 40 RBI across 365 plate appearances.
Cubs (Marcus Stroman) vs. Braves
The Cubs are slumping at the wrong time and their playoff chances hang in the balance. However, they face the best offense in the Braves before packing their bags to face NL Central foe Milwaukee starting Friday.
The Cubs will go with a tandem pitching approach, with Marcus Stroman used as a opener with Javier Assad most likely coming in after him. Matt Olson hasn’t smashed a homer in five games, so it feels like the slugger is due for one Thursday. The prices on the Braves hitters are steep but adding Michael Harris II and Orlando Arcia to the back half of your roster is an excellent way to get into the pristine Braves lineup.
Great pitching and stacking options for MLB
It’s a great day to build around an ace as you’re trying to decide who to stack in daily fantasy.
Gerrit Cole ($12000/11100) tries to put an exclamation point on his Cy Young candidacy against the Toronto Blue Jays. Rogers Centre will be rocking with the Blue Jays trying to hold off the Houston Astros and the Seattle Mariners in the AL Wild Card race.
Alternatively, Pablo López ($11400/11300) against the A’s offers a solid, but less likely to be rostered by the rest of your contest ace. Admittedly, he has more variance in his outcomes than Cole does, but at times he's been excellent, including a 14-strikeout effort against the Mets on Sept. 10.
If you roster López or Cole, you'll need to pair them with a much cheaper pitching option. I like Sean Manaea ($6000/6900) against the Padres. His role has been in flux much of the season, but he’s gone more than five innings in each of his last three starts, including a 7-inning, no-run gem against the Los Angeles Dodgers his last time through the rotation.
For stacks, you can't go wrong with the Dodgers at Coors Field. Mookie Betts ($6700/$4900) can play second or outfield, and he's is in the middle of an MVP caliber season. He has a .299/.364/.505 slashline over 121 plate appearances at Coors Field.
Pair him with JD Martinez ($5700/$4500), who has been red hot over the last two weeks with a .333/.367/.733 slashline and five home runs.
If you’re looking for a more cost-effective Dodger consider Jason Heyward ($3900/3100). The Dodgers have deployed JHey very effectively and over the last two weeks he’s slashing .324/.343/.559.
Double check the lineups before game time. Heyward doesn’t play every day and if he’s not in the lineup, you’ll need to pivot to another cheap outfield option like James Outman.
Those Dodgers stacks can be pricey so consider pairing the Dodgers with some players from the Minnesota Twins, who are facing off against right-hander Joey Estes in only his second start. His debut did not go well, with Estes throwing just 4.2 innings and giving up five earned runs to the Mariners.
I recommended Edouard Julien ($4000/2900) and Matt Wallner ($3400/2800) last week, and I recommend them again. Wallner is slashing .394/.512/.636 over the last two weeks.
Julien’s .154 batting average won't jump out at you, but his 23.5% walk rate in the last two weeks does. He’s getting on base at a .353 clip over the last two weeks which means he’s a guy who can be driven in by other bats in the lineup.
Finally, Kyle Farmer ($3000/2700) is a very cost-effective 3B/SS option and he’s getting on-base at a .340 clip over the last two weeks.
CC details his PrizePicks and Underdog choices
It’s the final Wednesday of the regular season, and one of your final chances to take advantage of a full slate of games. Here’s some over/unders to take a look.
This is a little risky, but with risk comes opportunity. Glasnow has pitched ineffectively over his last three starts and has a 5.72 ERA in September in five outings. He’s also registered a 39/9 K/BB over that time, and the last time he faced Boston, he threw six innings of one-run baseball while adding 14 strikeouts for good measure. Glasnow is a good bet to bounce back based on his track record, and the Red Sox lineup offers plenty of chances to miss bats.
Tatis Jr. has had a disappointing fantasy season in 2023 -- if only because expectations are so high for one of the most talented players in the sport -- but there have been enough flashes of brilliance to believe in him when the right matchup comes along. That matchup could come Wednesday against a Giants team that was officially eliminated from the postseason on Tuesday against a hurler in Sean Manaea that is likely due for some regression. A combo meal (homer and stolen base) is well within reach, and the fact that Tatis hasn’t gone deep September 15 suggests he’s due for a round-tripper sooner than later.
Even after picking up hits in his last two games, Kirk has really struggled over the month of September. He’s hit just .213 with a paltry OPS of .696, and he’s slashed just .240/.324/.341 against right-handers during his 2023 campaign. Add in the fact that he’ll be facing off against Gerrit Cole -- the presumed 2023 Cy Young winner based on his body of work thus far -- and it’s hard to justify betting on Kirk picking up a pair of bases on Wednesday, with all due respect to the backstop.
Miller has had a strong rookie campaign; making the jump from Double-A and helping stabilize the Mariners’ rotation after the season-ending injuries to Robbie Ray and Marco Gonzales. He also is a pitcher that hasn’t gone over this total often in 2023, with six of his last nine starts seeing him throw fewer than 90 pitches, including his last two. Some of that has to do with efficiency (5.1 scoreless innings against the Dodgers on September 16), and some of it because of some struggles (six runs in 4.1 frames in his last outing) that you see from rookie hurlers. Either way, it’s a good bet that Miller will be out of the game before he reaches the 90-pitch total against Houston Wednesday.
It’d be nice if this included walks because then it’d be a more obvious play; Julien has drawn seven walks over his last four games but hasn’t picked up a hit since last Wednesday. Considering how good he’s been in 2023 (.821 OPS, 14 homers in 105 games in his rookie campaign), it’s a good bet that the 24-year-old will start to see the hits dropping soon, and the fact he’s going up against the worst team in baseball in the A’s doesn’t hurt for this one, either. I’ll miss picking over/unders against the Athletics in 2023. Pretty good chance they’ll be a team to pick against in 2024, as well. Sorry, Oakland fans.
Your best PrizePicks and Underdog choices on MLB slate
We’re in the final week of the season and need to take advantage of every opportunity we have left. There is a beautiful slate of games for us to choose from Tuesday. The Astros and Mariners will battle late at night for their playoff lives. We also have a day-night doubleheader between the Dodgers and Rockies at Coors Field. There are plenty of options on PrizePicks and Underdog, but I’ve narrowed down the best picks to make here.
Backing the Dodgers is fun and easy to do confidently, especially against a starting pitcher like Chase Anderson. The 35-year-old veteran has struggled in his career against the guys the Dodgers will have in their lineup in the first game of Tuesday’s doubleheader.
Oddly enough, he has pitched better at Coors Field this season, but guys like Mookie, Freeman, and J.D. Martinez have raked at Coors. Betts is 11 for 27 at Coors this season with 7 RBIs, 7 runs, and 5 extra-base hits.
Did I mention the Rockies bullpen has the highest ERA in baseball? Well, they do at 5.33! With a doubleheader, they will likely use plenty of arms in their pen. J.D. was just named NL Player of the Week after going 11 for 24 with 5 home runs, 3 doubles, 12 RBIs, and a 1.708 OPS. He’s 4 for 13 in his career with a HR. against the Rockies projected starter Chase Anderson. He’s crushed the ball at Coors this season, going 7 for 15 with 3 homers.
The Phillies lineup has been on fire at home. This is an obvious spot to attack today. Philadelphia will face the Pirates and starting pitcher Mitch Keller. Keller has struggled in two of his last road starts. On the season, his ERA jumps to 5.49 on the road as opposed to 2.90 ERA at home. Harper has mashed at Citizens Bank with a .348 B.A., 1.057 OPS. He’s 4 for 9 in his career versus Keller with 2 doubles. He has topped 7.5 fantasy score in 8 of his last 11 home games.
The young lefty Steele has had an excellent 2023 season. He pushed for the NL Cy Young, but it has slipped away from him over his last two starts. He’s gone back-to-back starts, allowing 6 Earned. He has allowed at least 6 hits in 11 of 13 starts since the All-Star break. In his lone start this season against the Braves, he allowed 8 hits. Atlanta has the second-highest B.A. at home this season (.279) and the best B.A. versus left-handed pitching (.288). We can trust the Braves.
Albies has mashed lefties this season. He has a .384 batting average against left-handed pitching, and over the last week, he’s batting .407 with a 1.063 OPS. He is 2 for 3 in his career against Steele. Albies has topped this number in 9 of his last 11 games!
The rookie is tied with the third-most runs and sixth in total bases over the last month and has scored at least one run in 11 of his last 16 home games. He has one at-bat in his career against Nationals starting pitcher Josiah Gray with a walk. Henderson . Gray has been tough of late, but he has allowed at least 3 runs in 5 of his last 8 starts, and when he’s out of the game, the Nationals bullpen owns the 5th-highest ERA (5.01).
Great advice to help you build out your Tuesday lineups
With 16 games on tap for Tuesday evening, it’ll be a busy one for fantasy managers. However, there are plenty of attractive spots for both pitchers and hitters, which creates some stacking opportunities to build around.
There aren’t a ton of trouble spots, with the best chance for a possible early postponement being in Chicago where rain could trigger a late start. They’ll try to get it in, but the teams could opt for a doubleheader Wednesday or Thursday.
Luis Robert Jr., White Sox OF (knee)
Robert Jr. is day-to-day heading into Tuesday’s series opener against the Diamondbacks after being lifted from Sunday's series finale against the Red Sox with left knee soreness. There’s a chance he gets another night off with precipitation in the forecast on Tuesday night.
Bo Naylor, Guardians C (thumb)
Naylor sat out a pair of contests over the weekend after being lifted from Friday's contest against the Orioles with a right thumb contusion.
Michael Brantley, Astros OF (shoulder)
Brantley has been held out of Houston’s lineup for seven consecutive games due to shoulder soreness.
Yandy Díaz, Rays 1B/3B (hamstring)
Díaz is day-to-day entering Tuesday’s series opener at Fenway Park against the Red Sox after being removed from Sunday's series finale against the Blue Jays with right hamstring tightness.
Randy Arozarena, Rays OF (quad)
Arozarena sat out a pair of contests over the weekend following an early exit from Friday's game due to right quad tightness. Fantasy managers should consider him day-to-day entering Tuesday’s series opener against the Red Sox at Fenway Park.
Ketel Marte, Diamondbacks 2B/OF (illness)
Marte sat out Monday's series finale in New York after being scratched from Sunday's lineup due to illness. Fantasy managers should consider him day-to-day heading into Tuesday's series opener against the White Sox.
Luis Arraez, Marlins 2B (ankle)
Arraez sat out Sunday's series finale against the Brewers following an early exit from Saturday's contest after twisting his left ankle while going down the dugout steps at the conclusion of the eighth inning. There should be some clarity on his status heading into Tuesday's series opener against the Mets, but fantasy managers shouldn’t count on him being ready to return.
Jake Burger, Marlins 3B (quad)
Burger was removed from the sixth inning of Sunday’s series finale against the Mets due to right quad tightness, which has been a lingering issue for him over the past few days. Fantasy managers should consider him day-to-day for now.
Brandon Nimmo, Mets OF (leg)
Nimmo sat out Sunday's game with lingering right leg soreness, but is expected to be ready for Tuesday's series opener against the Marlins.
Francisco Alvarez (finger)
X-rays came back negative after Alvarez made an early exit from Sunday’s series finale against the Phillies with a left middle finger contusion.
With Justin Steele scuffling of late and other high-priced options like George Kirby and Bobby Miller facing a challenging opposing lineup and a daunting ballpark, respectively, Kevin Gausman and Zach Eflin are the consensus top starting pitching options Tuesday.
Gausman, who has two double-digit strikeout performances in two of his last three outings, faces a rebuilding Yankees’ lineup comprised of unproven rookies. It’s the type of favorable matchup that should enable him to pile up a prodigious strikeout total. Meanwhile, Eflin has been one of MLB's most consistent pitchers in his Rays debut, compiling a career-best 3.44 ERA, 1.03 WHIP and 182/24 K/BB ratio across 172 2/3 innings (30 starts). He'll square off against a Red Sox' lineup that ranks 27th with a calamitous .684 OPS in September.
Fantasy managers searching for an alternative in the upper-echelon section of the starting pitcher price range should consider Bailey Ober almost entirely because of an extremely tasty home matchup against the Athletics. The 28-year-old right-hander is unlikely to work too deep into the contest, but he's allowed two earned runs or fewer in back-to-back starts since September 15. At this juncture it’s difficult to recommend Giants top prospect Kyle Harrison, especially given his recent inability to keep the ball in the yard, but he possesses arguably the highest strikeout potential of any pitcher on this slate.
Paul Blackburn, Athletics RHP, vs. Twins: $6,700
Typically, we try to target starting pitchers against the Athletics in this space, but Blackburn is one of the more appealing under-the-radar options Tuesday since there isn’t much risk of a blow-up. The 29-year-old righty has allowed two earned runs or fewer in nine of his 12 starts since the All-Star break back in mid-July. With a playoff spot already locked up, there's a chance most of Minnesota's regulars get the night off -- especially with some potential rain in the forecast -- to ensure they're healthy and ready to go next week.
Dodgers vs. Rockies (TBD)
One of the best offenses at Coors Field is an appealing stacking proposition, so load up on Los Angeles sluggers. The Rockies haven’t revealed their pitching plan for Tuesday’s twin bill yet, so it be a bullpen game in the nightcap. Regardless of who Colorado throws, there’s a strong likelihood the Dodgers do serious damage.
Rangers vs. Angels (LHP Reid Detmers)
Winners of six consecutive games, the Rangers will square off against Angels southpaw Reid Detmers. The 24-year-old southpaw has pitched extremely well of late, but Texas has plenty of dangerous right-handed bats. As they showed Monday, the Rangers are also capable of doing serious damage against Los Angeles’ relievers as well.
Check out the top PrizePicks and Underdog choices
With only four games on tap, Monday’s slate is one of the smallest of the entire marathon baseball season. However, that doesn’t mean there aren’t some interesting player prop bets out there with several aces toeing the rubber for potentially the final time in the regular season.
The NL Cy Young Award front-runner faces a struggling Giants’ lineup in his penultimate start of the season. The 30-year-old southpaw has notched at least eight strikeouts in eight of his last 10 starts since July 30 and is facing a San Francisco lineup that lacks a ton of right-handed pop besides Wilmer Flores.
Castillo faced the Astros on May 5 and July 7, with only eight punch outs in 14 innings. The 30-year-old right-hander has eclipsed eight strikeouts in three consecutive outings and is making arguably his most important start of the season. But Houston's lineup is stellar against right-handed pitching and is one of the least strikeout-prone units in baseball. Castillo likley will pitch well, but his track record tells us he won't miss a ton of bats in this matchup.
Verlander faces the Mariners for the first time this season as the clubs continue to jostle for a postseason berth. The 40-year-old right-hander has eclipsed seven strikeouts in just four of nine outings since returning to Houston at the trade deadline, but Seattle has the second-most Ks in MLB. Verlander’s ability to consistently work deep into games, combined with the Mariners’ strikeout propensity, gives him a real shot at reaching this lofty number.
The Giants are technically still alive in the Wild Card picture, but they’ll need Webb to come through against the Padres. San Diego’s star-studded lineup doesn’t strike out a ton, and Webb isn’t known for missing a ton of bats, but he’s certainly capable of reaching at least five in his most important outing of the year.
Sandoval has been one of the unluckiest pitchers from a run-prevention standpoint and faces a scary Rangers lineup. The 26-year-old southpaw has given up at least five runs in three of his last four outings and will contend with several challenging right-handed sluggers, including Marcus Semien, Adolis García, Josh Jung and Mitch Garver. It's an extremely tough matchup, especially with Texas desperately needing a W to maintain their AL West lead, so fantasy managers should expect them to come out and do some damage.
CC breaks down lineup construction options
Fantasy players will need to keep a close eye on Arizona-New York as there is a good chance of rain throughout that game, and there’s also a possibility of rain in Giants-Padres; although that one looks like it should be able to be played.
Wilmer Flores, Giants 1B, knee: Flores left Sunday’s loss to the Dodgers with right knee discomfort. The veteran infielder went 2 for 2 before exiting, and is considered day-to-day. There’s a strong chance he’ll be out of the lineup for Monday’s game against San Diego.
Michael Brantley, Astros DH, shoulder: Brantley has not been able to play since September 17 because of soreness in his shoulder, and there’s no guarantee he’ll be back in the lineup for Monday’s massive game against the Mariners in Seattle.
Ketel Marte, Diamondbacks 2B, illness: Marte was scratched late from Sunday’s game due to being under the weather. If Marte can’t go Monday, Jordan Lawlar will likely be the starting shortstop with Geraldo Perdomo at second base.
For a slate that only features three games, there’s some awfully good starting pitching options. It starts with Snell, the presumed National League Cy Young favorite who is coming off seven no-hit innings against Colorado with 10 strikeouts. He’s allowed just one hit over his last two starts, and only two total runs in the month of September over 25 innings (0.72 ERA) with a 34/12 K/BB ratio.
Simply put, Snell is pitching as well -- if not better -- than anyone in baseball, and it’s hard to argue against using him against a mediocre San Francisco lineup.
The Verlander-Castillo matchup is a fascinating one, as it pits two pitchers that have been among the best in the sport over the last few years, but also features two teams that have played less-than-spectacular baseball over the last few weeks.
In fact, the Astros were swept by the lowly Royals over the weekend, while Seattle saw its struggles against Texas continue with their own three-game demise.
It also features two pitchers that have seen opposite levels of success as of late, as Verlander has a 5.19 ERA in his four starts in September, while Castillo has registered a solid -- if unspectacular -- 3.38 mark. The latter also hasn’t picked up a loss since July 14, and he makes a little more sense as a DFS option than Verlander at this point.
Gray vs. Sandoval offers the “cheap” entry points for Monday’s action, and it’s not hard to understand why. Gray hasn’t gone more than four innings in a start since he threw five middling frames against the Twins, and his ERA in the month of September -- small-sampled though it may be -- is an unhealthy 8.56.
Sandoval is actually coming off a solid outing against the Rays on Tuesday where he spun five innings of two-run baseball, but he had allowed a combined 15 runs in his two starts before that. He’s the kind hurler who is more likely to give you a chance for a win, but the fact he plays for one of the worst teams in baseball over the last month-plus makes it not worth the risk.
There are no sneaky options. It’s very hard to sneak up on anyone when there’s only three games in the main slate.
The only real question for me if you’re going to do a stack is whether to use it against the Angels or Rangers. The other starting pitching options are just too good for me to feel confident basing my DFS lineup on.
I’ll go with the Angels and the cheapness of these three against a pitcher in Gray who just hasn’t been very good for a while now, and it allows me to add some star plates like Juan Soto, Marcus Semien and two quality pitchers in Castillo and Webb. Certainly, some risk but the risk comes with plenty of reward.
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