September 27, 2023
NFL

Burrow Is Ready to Show He's Back

QB is healthier, Chase is on fire, and Titans pass defense is weak
Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow

If you read last week’s ‘Bargain Bin’,, let’s pretend I didn’t go 1 for 5 from the field — as Baker Mayfield, Kyren Williams, Jordan Addison, Nico Collins and Hunter Henry all performed below expectation.

Thankfully, Isiah Pacheco salvaged me by putting up a respectable and season-high in scrimmage yards while recording his first TD of the season in a drubbing of the struggling Bears.

I’m looking to atone for last week's debacle and here are the players I’ve hand-picked to assist me in that journey (all salaries are courtesy of FanDuel).

QB: Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals ($7,200, QB16 at cost)

Here’s a major positive: according to reports, Burrow left ‘Monday Night Football’ unscathed against the Rams and that there were no ‘setbacks’ to his strained calf.

Perhaps FanDuel hasn’t caught on yet, hence the low salary, relative to his standing amongst QBs in the NFL that is.

Burrow has a juicy matchup against the Titans in Week 4. While their front seven could wreak havoc against the Bengals’ still-questionable offensive line, the Tennessee secondary has been exploited all season.

Just ask Derek Carr and Deshaun Watson, who have each had their best games of the season (statistically) against Tennessee.

Against the Titans – ranked 28th in passing yards allowed per game (275.3) – Burrow is due for his best statistical output of the season. It doesn’t hurt that he and Ja’Marr Chase finally got on the same page on MNF, as Chase racked up a career-high in catches with 12 while simultaneously putting up a season-high in yardage with 141.

Arguably the healthiest he’s been in the last month or so and a matchup on tap against an opponent who's vulnerable against the pass? He’s a must-start. Give me Burrow all day long, baby!

RB: Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints ($6,500, RB24 at cost)

I know, I know. AK has yet to play because of suspension, but with the absence of Jamaal Williams (IR) and unproven depth at RB in New Orleans with only rookie RB Kendre Miller and Tony Jones Jr to spell him, I expect the Saints to put about as much on Kamara’s plate as he can handle in Week 4 against the Buccaneers.

Not as stout against the run like we’re accustomed to seeing, Tampa Bay has shown cracks in their run defense armor.

Take for example, DeAndre Swift’s 130 rushing yards in Week 3. Or the fact that Tampa allowed Philadelphia RB’s to account for 173 yards rushing (201 rushing yards on the day).

With Jameis Winston in at QB as Derek Carr is dealing with a sprained AC joint, I expect New Orleans to play more conservative in Week 3 and run more.

What better way to do that then with a RB who has fresh legs and is still considered one of the premium guys at his position?

WR: Tank Dell, Houston Texans ($6,200, WR40 at cost)

Another week, another fantasy scoring output north of 20 points for rookie WR Nathaniel ‘Tank’ Dell in Houston after he put up a 5-catch, 145-yard, and 1 TD performance in Jacksonville in Week 3.

After clamoring for the Texans to draft him shortly after he was drafted No. 2 overall, C.J. Stroud not only got his wish, but the Texans might have gotten one of the steals of the draft in the diminutive, yet explosive and extremely talented wideout from Houston.

Not only that, but this rapport has been making local headlines in Houston all summer long, as it was reported a number of times that Stroud and Dell had showcased strong chemistry with one another during training camp and that has since showcased itself through the first few weeks of the regular season.

Having received 7 targets and caught a TD in back-to-back weeks for the Texans, Dell is gaining traction as a coveted fantasy commodity and definitely not somebody you want to miss out on as this will likely be the last week you can get him outside of the top 30 at WR as far as price point.

One more point: the Steelers pass defense has been BLEEDING points to opposing WRs all season – just ask Brandon Aiyuk, Amari Cooper, Davante Adams, and Jakobi Meyers.

Start Dell with confidence.

WR: Joshua Palmer, Los Angeles Chargers ($6,100, WR41 at cost)

First off, prayers up for Mike Williams, who had been on a statistical tear to start the season.

In his place, enter Joshua Palmer, who finished Week 3 with 7 targets, 66 yards and a touchdown.

Against a secondary that has not only struggled all year long, but has been struggling for the last few years now, Palmer is very fantasy-friendly in one of the highest-scoring offenses in the league playing alongside one of the NFL’s most prolific WR’s in Keenan Allen.

And Palmer is the No. 2 option catching passes from one of the hottest QB’s in the game right now? It doesn’t get any better than that.

Hold on, maybe it does.

$6,100.

End of story.

TE: Jake Ferguson, Dallas Cowboys ($5,100, TE18 at cost)

Having received 4 or more targets in every game this season so far, Ferguson has flown under the radar as a fantasy relevant TE.

In a matchup that’s expected to be difficult for Dallas’ wide receivers as New England’s cornerbacks have been shut down, I expect Dak Prescott to look to Ferguson early and often as not only a security blanket, but as the go-to guy in the red zone as well.

Still entrenched as the TE1 on the depth chart ahead of other young TE’s with potential, Ferguson has even caught the attention of his QB, as Prescott is on record saying that Ferguson is ‘close to becoming a big-time guy’.

We’ll see if that tree bears any fruit come Week 4, but for now -- I’m willing to bet that it will, given what I’ve seen so far.

FLEX: Roschon Johnson, Chicago Bears ($5,300, RB51 at cost)

If you’re looking for the ultimate dart throw, look no further than the man matching up against a team that gave up 70 points and 350 yards RUSHING (on 8.1 yards per carry) to the Miami Dolphins last week.

While leading the league in scoring helps when it comes to accumulating fantasy points, don’t let the Bears’ inability to move the ball (or score points for that matter) stop you from getting a bargain on Johnson.

Coming off a season-high in snap percentage (45%), carries, and rushing yards, this is the week in which the Bears will start to utilize their talented rookie back. And if there’s a week for this offense to get back on track, it has to be against the Broncos, who have given up 105 POINTS in their last two outings.

With 50 other guys ahead of Johnson in the salary pecking order regarding RB’s, I don’t believe there could be more bang for your buck than in the former Longhorn.

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Weather Report:

There are only three games on the slate today and none should be impacted by precipitation.

Injury Report:

Jorge Soler - Hip - He left Tuesday’s contest against the Rays with right hip tightness. He is considered day-to-day and could be ready to go against the Nationals.

Lane Thomas - Back - He was lifted prior to the seventh inning due to back soreness. It doesn’t sound serious but there is a chance he sits out Thursday.

Mitch Haniger - Rest - Haniger returned from the injured list on Tuesday and sat out against a righty but the team said it was only due to rest. He should be ready to go on Thursday.

Starting Pitchers (DK-FD)

Spencer Strider: 12,500-12,000

Lance Lynn: 8,800-9,500

Braxton Garrett: 8,200-8,700

Pedro Avila: 6,300-6,700

Joan Adon: 5,400-6,400

Sean Manaea: 5,000-7,300

Spencer Strider is the highest-priced pitcher for the slate, which shouldn’t be surprising. He easily leads the slate with a 2.75 SIERA, 1.06 WHIP, and 38 percent strikeout rate. His 1.06 HR/9 is the highest of his career, without taking the two game appearance in the majors late in 2021 into account. His 60 percent HR/Barrel rate is above league average, which indicates that he could be getting a bit unlucky with the long ball. He faces a tough team in the Dodgers which makes the 12K+ price tag a bit steep.

Strider gets to go toe-to-toe with Lance Lynn in the last game in the slate on Tuesday. To say that Lynn has had an up-and-down season is a bit of an understatement. Lynn has a 3.99 SIERA, 1.38 WHIP, and 26 percent strikeout rate on the season but most of the damage was done while he was a member of the Chicago White Sox. Since joining the Dodgers, he has a 4.30 SIERA, 1.06 WHIP, and 21 percent strikeout rate. He faces a very tough task of facing the Braves in Dodgers Stadium. Since both of these pitchers face uphill battles, going cheap on the pitching while loading up on bats, could work tonight.

Braxton Garrett gets to face the Nationals for the second game in a row. Last time out, he allowed three runs over six innings while only picking up three strikeouts. This time around, he will be in the Nationals home ballpark, which has been below league average when it comes to the long ball, especially with the forecast projecting the winds to be blowing into the ballpark.

Batter to Target

Joan Adon is a pitcher that could be easily exploited in this small slate. His 4.44 SIERA is easily the worst of the group ad Nationals Park is a bit hitter-friendly this season. While the Marlins hitters have struggled in the second of the season Jake Burger ($4,100 on DK and $3,000 on FanDuel) could be an option for fantasy managers looking some cheap power.

Stack Attack

Marlins (Braxton Garrett) vs. Nationals:

DK-FD

Lane Thomas: 4,900-3,200

Keibert Ruiz: 4,000-2,600

Joey Meneses: 4,400-2,700

If Lane Thomas is ready to go on Thursday, he is a must add. The 28-year-old is hitting .346/.393/.591 with eight homers and nine stolen bases against southpaws this season. Ruiz and Meneses also have been above league average against left-handed pitching while hitting towards the top of the Nationals lineup.

Giants (Manaea) vs. Padres:

DK-FD

Ha-Seong Kim: 4,900-3,100

Gary Sanchez: 3,800-2,600

Garrett Cooper: 2,900-2,400

Trent Grisham: 2,800-2,500

The Giants haven’t officially named a starter for Thursday’s contest against the Padres but Sean Manaea figures to fill in as the bulk reliever. Ha-Seong Kim has been out of his mind in the second half of the season, while posting a season long line of .329/.413/.579 with eight homers and ten stolen bases against left-handed pitching. Sánchez and Grisham have also hit above league average against lefties and can be add at some really low prices. Cooper has moved up to sixth in the Padres batting order after Jake Cronenworth landed on the injured list with a fractured wrist. If the Padres bats come to life at the top of the order, you could pick up some RBIs at a considerably low price point.

It’s another full slate of games Wednesday, and there are more than a handful of interesting options to gander over. Colorado-Atlanta provides some intriguing value, but a ‘lesser’ game like Kansas City taking on Pittsburgh also offers intrigue.

Here are tonight’s Underdog and Prizepicks plays for Wednesday’s MLB slate.

Bobby Witt Jr. 1.5 Total Bases - Higher (Underdog)

It’d be hard to overstate just how good the Royals' infielder has been in August, as the young star has hit.327/.379/.626 with eight homers while stealing nine bags and driving in 21 runs even for a weak team. On Wednesday, he’ll go up against the Pirates' Andre Jackson; who pitched decently over his last two starts but offers plenty of opportunity with less-than-spectacular stuff. Don’t be surprised if Witt Jr. offers a combo meal with a homer and a steal, and he’s a good bet to reach the over on that 1.5 total.

Nolan Jones : 1.5 Total Bases - Higher (Prizepicks)

Somewhat quietly, Jones has been one of the better rookies in baseball, coming into Wednesday with a slash of .271/.353/.488. He’ll get a chance to place in the friendly confines of Coors Field, and the former Cleveland prospect will also get a chance to face a right-hander who is making his MLB debut in Darius Vines. Jones is hitless in his last three games, and while that makes things a little more nerve-wracking, it also means he’s due for a big game.

Matt Olson: 0.5 RBI - More (Prizepicks)

Olson will be going up against a lefty in Kyle Freeland, and while he is statistically worse against southpaws than he is righties, worse is a subjective term considering he’s posted an .891 OPS with nine homers and 27 RBI over his 125 plate appearances. Add in the fact he’ll be playing in the friendly confines of Coors Field with some elite hitters hitting in front of him, and Olson is as good of a bet for an RBI as any player Wednesday.

Dane Dunning: 4.0 strikeouts - Higher (Underdog)

Dunning has been able to miss bats at much higher rate as of late, with 39 strikeouts over 29.2 innings of work in his five starts thus far in August. The Mets certainly offer a chance for missed bats, and are not exactly in striking distance for a playoff spot. Dunning should be able to hit his mark as long as he can throw enough strikes to do so; something he admittedly struggled with Friday against the Twins.

Brandon Pfaadt : 4.5 Strikeouts - Lower (Underdog)

There’s reason for long-term upside with Pfaadt, as he was one of the best minor-league hurlers in baseball in 2022, and there have been some flashes of brilliance in 2023 despite his ugly 5.91 ERA and 1.36 WHIP over 67 innings during his rookie campaign. Asking him to reach this total is asking him to work deep against the Dodgers, a lineup that is as feared as any in all of baseball. There’s just too much risk on betting overs with Pfaadt against this kind of team.

The Houston Astros have terrorized the Boston Red Sox this week, putting up 19 runs over the last two games, both of which started by two of Boston’s best pitchers, Chris Sale and Brayan Bello.

Sale and Bello kept the games close, giving up three and two earned runs respectively, but the bullpen couldn’t contain Houston’s bats. Jose Altuve hit for the cycle in the first game, and Yordan Álvarez homered in both games, hitting seven for nine over the two nights.

Vlad Jr Could Go Off Wednesday

The Contrarian Edge Optimizer likes the idea of doubling down on the Astros stack -- a lineup that tied a franchise record 66 hits in the last four games -- but there are also alternatives to consider. Specifically, take a look at Toronto and Seattle. Both have excellent matchups today, so let’s take a closer look.

The Blue Jays face off against Patrick Corbin and the Nationals at the Rogers Centre this afternoon. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ($5000) could be poised for a big day. He’s riding a 10-game hitting streak, during which time he's slashing .302/.333/.438 with two home runs.

If you’re looking for some cheaper options to round out your lineup, keep an eye on both Blue Jays catchers. Danny Jansen ($3600) and Alejandro Kirk ($3000) are each available for less than $4000 on Draft Kings and rostering them should allow you a few extra dollars to roster a top tier bat or one of the three best pitchers on today’s card.

Either Santiago Espinal ($2400) or Whit Merrifield ($4400) could offer hits and runs if the Blue Jays put it together. And don’t sleep on George Springer ($4700), who’s been back in the leadoff spot this series and has put together a really nice run with a five-game hitting streak.

No August swoon for Seattle bats

The Mariners bats were momentarily silenced at T-Mobile Park on Tuesday night, but they’ve been red hot this month, leading the team to a 20-6 record in August. They should stack up nicely against Zach Neal, who’s starting for Oakland for the first time since 2016.

The Mariners have been excellent against right-handed pitchers this season, hitting .240/.323/.419 with a team wRC+ of 108 this season. During their hot streak this August, those numbers are even more impressive -- .279/.363/.486 and a wRC+ of 138 against right-handed pitching.

The Optimizer likes Seattle's Teoscar Hernandez ($4500) as one of your outfielders, and you could do worse than supplementing his production with leadoff man JP Crawford ($4300). Third baseman Eugenio Suarez ($4600) offers some nice pop and while you should avoid Julio Rodriguez, who is day-to-day after a late scratch on Tuesday night, Dominic Canzone ($3000) is a very cost-effective option who’s been on a nice run over the last 10 days, hitting .306/.306/.500.

Pitchers to consider

As for pitching, the wind is blowing in at Wrigley Field, and the Brewers' Brandon Woodruff ($10200) has looked every bit like the ace we know he can be since coming back from the injured list. He’s thrown 22.2 innings across four starts with 29 strikeouts, and only the Rangers scored more than two runs against Woodruff since his return.

Another pitcher to consider is the Giants' Logan Webb ($9500), who has gone five or more innings in 18 of 19 starts this season – including a seven-inning start with seven strikeouts against the Reds at Great American Ballpark in July.

Oracle is a much more pitcher-friendly environment, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Webb surpass that strikeout total from July with a free-swinging Reds team that ranks 25th in MLB with a 24.5 percent strikeout rate.

There are 15 MLB games on tap for Tuesday and a ton of opportunities to cash. The Seattle Mariners-Oakland Athletics game is very intriguing on both sides, and the Mariners have been one of the hottest hitting teams in baseball over the last few weeks. Here are tonight’s Underdog and Prizepicks plays for Tuesday’s MLB slate.

Teoscar Hernandez: 1.5 Total Bases - Higher (Underdog)
Hernandez has been excellent against left-handed pitchers and Ken Waldichuk has let up six hits or more in three of his last four starts, and he’s sporting an earned run average over six.

He’s hit the over on one and a half total bases in seven straight games. He’s homered three times in his last three contests. Hernandez is scorching hot hitting the ball in August, and he sits with a .371 batting average this month. Waldichuk has been a weaker pitcher on the road than at home, and tonight’s game is in Seattle.

Ty France: 0.5 Singles - Higher (Underdog)
France has singled in five of his last seven contests, and he hits way better against lefties, hitting .309 against them. France is having one of his better hitting months as he’s batting .284 in August. Waldichuk is more of a groundball pitcher, and France hits over 42 percent when it comes to ground balls. Between the amount of hits Waldichuk has given up lately, his struggles on the road and France having a strong month at the dish, he should be able to get on base this evening.

Ken Waldichuk: 5.5 Hits Allowed - More (Prizepicks)
With Waldichuk giving up at least six hits in a few starts recently, it’s hard to think that he’ll be able to shut down the Mariners who have been the best hitting team by average in the MLB over the last two weeks and third best over the last seven days. Waldichuk has a 7.43 earned run average, and opponents hit .303 against him when he’s starting on the road. Seattle hits .262 against left-handed pitchers which is the 8th highest in the majors.

Jose Altuve: 2.0 Hits+Runs+RBIs - Higher (Underdog)
Altuve has crossed the plate nine times total over his last three games. During that span he hit the ball seven times and produced five RBIs. Altuve hits .335 against right-handed pitchers, and even though Boston Red Sox pitcher Brayan Bello hasn’t given up a ton of runs in his starts recently, he’s allowed six hits or more in five straight starts. Last week in this exact matchup, Bello gave up nine hits against Houston, and since then, Altuve has heated up. Altuve has also been a better hitter on the road than at home, and this game is in Boston.

Manny Machado: 0.5 Singles - Higher (Underdog)
Machado has been reaching base a lot lately. Tonight, he faces St. Louis Cardinals pitcher Zack Thompson who is not only a lefty, but he’s surrendered six hits in both of his last two outings. Machado hits .327 against left-handed pitchers and he’s hit a single in three of his last five games.

Marcus Semien: 0.5 Singles - Higher (Underdog)
Semien hits better against left-handed pitchers than right-handed pitchers. He’s hit singles in four of his last seven games, and the Rangers' bats have woken up a bit in the last week. Semien has a good history against New York Mets pitcher Jose Quintana, hitting the ball six times in 13 at-bats against him. He has the most hits for the Rangers this season.