An optimizer is a powerful tool for DFS, capable of bulk operations in an instant that would otherwise take hours of manipulation to perform manually. But we must first learn how to wield an optimizer to realize its true power.
That’s what we try to do in this weekly series. We’ll focus on Sportstopia’s Contrarian Edge Optimizer for every Monday Night Football game this season to explore the tool itself, maximize expected value through optimal utilization, and provide a sneak peek into the industry’s newest and most dynamic optimizer.
MNF, Week 6: Dallas Cowboys at Los Angeles Chargers
First Run
The first run from the CEO, without altering any settings, returns a MNF showdown roster consisting of Michael Gallup at captain, Justin Herbert, Keenan Allen, Dak Prescott, Jake Ferguson, and CeeDee Lamb. Clearly, the optimizer likes the passing game from each team. We’ll cover some of the theoretical implications of a low-priced captain below.
MNF Theory
There are two primary theoretical principles that guide captain selection in showdown – you either need the highest scoring player from a raw points perspective or an over-performing cheap player that unlocks the ability to gain exposure to numerous pay-up options throughout the remainder of the roster.
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In the first instance, separator scores are most valuable as no other player comes close to matching the production on a slate from one of the players. In the latter instance, and as is pertinent to the returns from the optimizer on first run, scoring is condensed at the top from a raw point total perspective, making it necessary to capture multiple players from the top tier of player pricing.
The hit rates are typically greater to capture the highest raw point total in the captain spot, but so too will the ownership be.
This then becomes an interesting discussion regarding hit rate, ownership, and leverage. From a theoretical sense, there are two paths to top-end scoring from a pass-catcher – we either need to capture bulk scoring through yardage (a downfield role) or touchdowns.
Either of those cases theoretically ties the pass-catcher to their respective quarterback, which the optimizer has done with Gallup and Ferguson present on the optimal roster. Even so, we must realize that touchdowns and deep shots downfield are two of the most variant acts found in the NFL, making a roster like this highly variant as well.
As such, optimal utilization of a roster like this would be directly tied to ownership. In other words, this roster is likely to be duplicated on this slate and would become less optimal due to the high variance included via the use of Gallup in the captain slot and another variant piece in Ferguson. It is typically a higher expected value stance to target variance at low ownership.
Practical Application
To continue that discussion, Gallup is currently projected for around 17 percent ownership in the captain slot due to what he opens up on the rest of the roster. As we just discussed, he is a highly volatile play on this slate while working in a downfield role on the Cowboys offense, which is typically a position to take at low ownership and relatively fade at higher ownership.
For comparison, Austin Ekeler is currently projected for around 6 percent ownership at captain yet offers clear paths to being the top overall scorer on the slate, with his low ownership likely influenced by the combination of uncertainty surrounding his first game back from injury and the state of the slate, with so many high-priced viable options that people want to jam into rosters.
A bet like Ekeler in the captain slot is a +EV bet to make over the long run, considering he is a guy that can return outlier scoring and be the highest scoring player in this game at a rate greater than his 6 percent ownership.
To harness this leverage angle, lock Ekeler into the captain slot and run the optimizer. See what types of rosters are returned. My personal favorite from the list of returned rosters with Ekeler at captain includes Justin Herbert, Dak Prescott, Ferguson, Cameron Dicker (the kicker), and Gallup.
As you can see, both variant players that were present on the initial run (Gallup and Ferguson) are still present on this roster but the combinatorial ownership of the roster as a whole is far less with Ekeler at captain, meaning we’re fighting with fewer rosters at the top (and potentially would be splitting first place with fewer rosters should it hit!).
This was an exercise in the marriage of theoretics and analytics, using our knowledge of game theory to influence the Contrarian Edge Optimizer’s process only slightly. There are clearly other theoretical angles to play on this slate, which you can use to build a +EV portfolio on a single-game slate.
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