An optimizer is a powerful tool for DFS, capable of bulk operations in an instant that would otherwise take hours of manipulation to perform manually. But we must first learn how to wield an optimizer to realize its true power.
That’s what we are trying to do in this weekly series. We’ll focus on Contrarian Edge Optimizer use at Fantasy Sports Logic for every Monday Night Football game this season to explore the tool itself, maximize expected value through optimal utilization, and provide a sneak peek into the newest and most dynamic optimizer in the industry.
First Run
Running the Contrarian Edge Optimizer without altering anything is always a good idea to see where the varying projections systems are leading rosters for the Packers-Raiders game on Monday night. Almost unanimously, you’ll see a high emphasis on the primary Raiders pieces (Davante Adams, Josh Jacobs, and Jimmy Garoppolo), followed by Packers Jordan Love and Christian Watson. That gives us a solid starting point to guide our discussion. Austin Hooper is also projecting well as the player with the lowest price who also carries a numerical projection on the slate.
MNF Theory
The game between the Raiders and Packers pits one extremely concentrated offense with a middling defense (Las Vegas) against a relatively concentrated offense with a middling defense (Green Bay). As such, expect the kickers and defenses to go relatively under-owned with a high emphasis on the offensive pieces of each offense. And while that is the likeliest scenario in a spot like this, rosters that include either defense and/or one, or both, kickers are going to be solid leverage opportunities. In other words, the ownership on those pieces is likely going to be lower than the chances of them contributing to the optimal roster.
There are also numerous spots where ownership might come in lower than it otherwise would considering injury uncertainty, with Davante Adams, Aaron Jones, and Christian Watson either coming in questionable (Adams and Jones) or bringing uncertainty surrounding their expected snap rates as they work their way back from extended absences (Jones and Watson). Watson’s snap rate is likely to directly influence his projection and the projection of Romeo Doubs, and an “either or” stance is likely a good idea in this spot.
Practical Application
With so much uncertainty heading into the slate, it’s best to sort out your intended captains and run the optimizer with certain hard guidelines in place. For example, some of the rules that will guide those runs on this slate are:
- Exclude Christian Watson on roster containing Romeo Doubs, and vice versa. This is especially true on rosters that contain either in the captain slot.
- Any roster with either quarterback at captain must include two pass-catchers from that team.
- Rosters with neither quarterback must include two (or more) running backs.
- Rosters with a kicker, boost the opposing defense.
- Boost Aaron Jones on rosters without Jordan Love.
- Reduce Dontayvion Wicks and boost Josiah Deguara.
Edit Blend
One of the aspects of the optimizer that we haven’t discussed is the ability to edit the blend of the seven projections machines that are utilized by the Contrarian Edge Optimizer away from an even 14 percent split. On the top header, select “Edit Blend” and input the desired emphasis. While I don’t recommend altering these values on main slates, it can be invaluable for smaller slates and showdowns to leverage the varying projection systems from around the industry.
Max/Min Exposure
Feeling higher or lower on a specific player than the projections? Simply alter the max or min exposure thresholds for the optimizer, which will force varying builds away from the chalk. We can be as restricting as we want in this process, with the ability to restrict the optimizer down to a narrow band within two to three percent.
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