We’ve made it to our first Sunday Night Football game of the 2023 season. It’s been a long summer waiting for Carrie Underwood to bless our televisions again, and it’s one of the NFL’s best rivalries --the New York Giants vs the Dallas Cowboys.
Game
Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants, 8:20 p.m. ET
Betting Odds (DraftKings)
Line: Cowboys -3.5
Moneyline: Cowboys -180, Giants +150
Over/Under: 45.5 points
Team ranks (2022)
Cowboys
Points for: 26.8 PPG (4th)
Points allowed: 19.7 (6th)
Giants
Points for: 21.2 (18th)
Points allowed: 22.8 (22nd)
Key Injuries to Watch
Cowboys
- Tyler Smith, LG (hamstring) -- Doubtful
- Tyron Smith, LT (ankle) -- Questionable
Giants
- Darren Waller, TE (hamstring) -- Questionable
- Wan’Dale Robinson, WR (knee) --Doubtful
The Smiths make up the left side of the Cowboys’ offensive line. If both can’t go, the Giants’ pass rush may have a greater impact than we expect. The Cowboys’ run game may also not be as effective. Tyler Smith is the more likely of the two to not suit up.
Waller was a late addition to the injury report and was likely injured during practice. He is a game-time decision as the Giants are expected to test out the hamstring before the game. Waller has a history of hamstring issues, so expect the G-Men to tread lightly with an entire season ahead.
If Waller were to sit, Daniel Bellinger and Lawrence Cager would slide into prominent tight end roles.
Despite coming off the Physically Unable to Perform (PUP) list ahead of the season, Robinson will need more time to recover before he is a full go.
Bell cow RBs/Big Prices (DraftKings)
Captain Prices
- Tony Pollard, RB, $16,500
- Saquon Barkley, RB, $15,900
- CeeDee Lamb, WR, $15,600
- Dak Prescott, QB, $15,000
- Daniel Jones, QB, $14,100
- Darren Waller, TE, $12,600
- Brandin Cooks, WR, $10,800
- Isaiah Hodgins, WR, $9,600
Flex Prices
- Tony Pollard, RB, $11,000
- Saquon Barkley, RB, $10,600
- CeeDee Lamb, WR, $10,400
- Dak Prescott, QB, $10,000
- Daniel Jones, QB, $9,400
- Darren Waller, TE, $8,400
- Brandin Cooks, WR, $7,200
- Isaiah Hodgins, WR $6,400
Tony Pollard is taking over lead running back duties in Dallas. With Ezekiel Elliott no longer an option, Pollard should have ample opportunity to put his stamp on the offense. He had ankle surgery in the offseason, but all signs point to him being the bell cow that fantasy managers have been clamoring for since 2021.
Pollard gets to kick off the season against a Giants run defense that allowed the second-most yards per carry (5.2), the sixth-most rushing yards per game (144), and the most yards per reception to backs. For the explosive Pollard, who can turn any play into a house call, this is a great recipe to start the season.
As mentioned earlier, the Cowboys’ offensive line could be in trouble on the left side. The Giants’ defense is young, but on the interior Leonard Williams and Dexter Lawrence can make it a long night for Dak Prescott.
If Kayvon Thibodeaux makes a leap in his second season, the Giants’ pass rush can be a force. This would help mask their youth at DB, as they are expected to start two rookie cornerbacks.
If Waller does indeed make his debut, expect him to produce at an elite level. The Dallas defense allowed touchdown passes at the fourth highest rate last season. They allowed nine of those from the slot, and Waller is a menace from there. He ran 60 percent of his routes last season from the slot for the Raiders.
CeeDee Lamb should be busy, and likely is the captain worth paying for in your lineups. Our Contrarian Edge Optimizer projects Lamb for the third most fantasy points overall in Week 1. He flat out torched the Giants’ secondary last season on a 37% target share in those games.
The Giants’ defense loves to blitz. They blitzed at the highest rate in the NFL last season (43% of the time), which will leave Lamb to eat up one-on-one matchups.
Sneaky options
Brandin Cooks, Cowboys WR -- $7,200
Cooks is fascinating. He’s now on his fourth NFL team, and in his first season with every team he had at least 1,000 yards. The veteran is entering his 10th season and he’s still only 29. Reports out of Cowboys camp all summer was how shockingly explosive Cooks was on his routes.
The Giants are starting rookies Deonte Banks and Tre Hawkins at cornerback. If the pass rush can’t impact Prescott, Cooks could torch a NYG secondary that allowed the sixth-highest yards per target last season. According to the Contrarian Edge Optimizer, Cooks projects for the lowest ownership among the top names on Sunday night.
Jake Ferguson, Cowboys TE -- $4,800
Ferguson fills the void left by Dalton Schultz, who left in free agency to the Texans. The former fourth-round pick will likely be Dak’s new receiving option at tight end until rookie second-round pick Luke Schoonmaker proves he’s ready.
Ferguson has run-after-the-catch ability, which he flashed last season. Dak’s TEs have accrued at least 90 targets each season in his career. At 6’5’’, Ferguson is a valuable red zone threat.
Parris Campbell, Giants WR -- $4,400
This is strictly a matchup-based play. If Waller is ruled out, it would be wise to get Campbell into the lineup, with the Cowboys being vulnerable guarding the slot. The Dallas defense is strong on the outside with Trevon Diggs and newly acquired former Defensive Player of the Year Stephon Gilmore.
Expect Giants quarterback Daniel Jones to utilize quick throws to the veteran Campbell to avoid the pass rush of Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence. We saw how Jones utilized slot man Richie James last season. Why not Parris in 2023?
Prediction
Many believe in these Cowboys, who have one of the best two-way rosters in the NFL, to be a strong NFC contender. Some analysts are even picking them to win the Super Bowl. Meanwhile, the underdog G-Men are chomping at the bit to repeat their 2022 success.
The Cowboys have defeated the Giants four straight times, and the only victory Daniel Jones has over the Cowboys came in Week 18 back in 2020 in a game Dak Prescott didn’t play in.
I expect that trend to continue tonight. The Giants’ youth in the secondary versus the Cowboys’ veteran wide receivers will prove too much to overcome.
Cowboys 27, Giants 20
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