September 27, 2023
NBA

NBA Fantasy: The Best of Both Worlds

Get players who you like AND will score big fantasy points
Memphis Grizzlies forward Jaren Jackson Jr

I started writing a ‘My Guys’ column about 10 years ago after I started to realize that my favorite part about drafting in fantasy hoops was taking a hype guy too early and making the draft room mad that they wouldn’t have a shot at getting that player. But it was a strategy that evolved over time.

When I first started playing fantasy hoops, sometime around 1991, I simply drafted basketball players I liked, with no clue about what kind of fantasy assets they might possess. Later, I learned that to win consistently you had to have two things: A killer instinct and the ability to draft with your head and not your heart. And while that kept me entertained for a few years, I started to figure out that all I really wanted to do was put together a team of players that had a chance to win AND that I could root for.

Maybe I tweaked what constituted me liking a player or maybe I just grew smarter over the years. In any case, people always seem to like this column and I try to find (mostly) young, up-and-coming players who might blow up this season, along with some of the old standby veterans that I seemingly can’t live without.

Am I telling you to reach for your guys a round or two early? Not exclusively, but sometimes it’s fun to shock the draft room and go get one of your guys a little early. It’s also different these days than it was in the 90s as everyone seems to have the same type of intel and there aren’t many secrets out there.

Sleepers are becoming a thing of the past so you have to reach a little to get the hyped-up players you really want, which I’m obviously fine with. So, without further ado, here is my 2023-24 version of ‘My Guys,’ exclusively for my new favorite website, Sportstopia!

And if you read my recent Mock Draft column, you may notice that I applied this strategy generously in that one, as well.

Round 1

Luka Doncic, DAL G

I should have just saved my first entry about Luka from five years ago and copy and paste it every year, because my tune never changes. Yes, I know he stinks at free throws, turns the ball over, plays for a team lacking the help he needs to win and misses games. But, if the constant whining to the officials hasn’t turned you against him, he’s still the most exciting player to watch.

The counting stats are off the charts, he’s still just 24 and after five years of indisputable evidence that he can’t shoot free throws, I still think he can be an 80 percent shooter at the line one day.

I will probably be saying that for the next 10 years, but whatever. His ADP is sitting at about 3 and I’m going to continue to take him in every draft I can get him in unless I get the No. 1 pick. And even the acting president of the Luka fan club will be taking Nikola Jokic at No. 1. But outside of that, Luka is my pick.

And if Luka’s not available I’m hoping to have a Top 5 pick so I can get a shot at Shai Gilgeous-Alexander or Tyrese Haliburton.

Round 2

Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM PF/C

What’s not to love about JJJ? He’s 24, a shot-blocking and steals machine, will have 25 games sans Ja Morant (suspension) in which he should be an offensive machine, and unlike some of his contemporaries (Deandre Ayton, Robert Williams, Mitchell Robinson), is living up to the hype. He’s also an elite free throw shooter for his size, can hit 3-pointers and doesn’t turn the ball over.

If I miss out on JJJ, the other Round 1-2 guys I’d like to see fall into the second round include LaMelo Ball (not going to happen) and Mikal Bridges. I was fully on board the Bridges bandwagon last season after the trade and am excited to see what he can do this year.

Round 3

Victor Wembanyama OKC PF/C

I reached for Wemby at the end of Round 2 in my mock draft because I wanted to be sure to get him. A lot of people have jumped off the hype train and are suggesting he’s just going to be an average NBA player without the girth to be an elite big man.

I am not one of them. Even playing for Gregg Popovich and the risk that he’ll sit more than any of us would like to see, I’m all in on Wemby. And if it doesn’t happen this year, it’s coming next season. Like Coach Prime said, “Better get me now because this is the worst we’re gonna be.”

Wemby’s ADP sits at 30 but whether or not he’ll be available in Round 3 all depends on your league. I wanted to ensure I got him in that mock so I reached, but it’s not something I’ll do every time and he should be available in the early part of Round 3 in many leagues, at least for now.

If Wemby’s not available some of the other Round 3 targets I like are Desmond Bane (no Ja for 25 games) and Lauri Markkanen (last year was not a fluke).

Round 4

Chet Holmgren C OKC

Big men coming off serious foot injuries are risky business, but something tells me Holmgren is going to stay healthy and have a monster year. So much so that I reached for him in Round 3 of my mock. His ADP is sitting around 40 currently and, while that could go up or down before the drafts start counting, he should be available late in Round 3 or early in Round 4.

Other fourth-round players I’m into would include Walker Kessler, Dejounte Murray, De’Aaron Fox, Jalen Brunson and Myles Turner, depending on what my team looked like after the first three picks.

Round 5

Jalen Williams OKC SG/SF

Williams was a blast to watch last season and he’s getting some post-hype gruff due to the fact SGA might take over the league this season, while Josh Giddey and Holmgren are also going to have the ball in their hands a lot. But Williams is just 22, is coming off a solid rookie season and fully blew up in March when he averaged 19.8 points, 6.1 rebounds, 4.5 assists, 1.7 steals, 1.3 3-pointers and just 1.9 turnovers in 34 minutes per game (15 games). Just don’t draft the wrong Jaylin Williams from OKC.

Other Round 5 targets include Alperen Sengun, Giddey, Jarrett Allen and Franz Wagner. Call me crazy but Paolo Banchero is not really one of my guys. I get the hype and the upside but just didn’t love the 20 points, 6.9 rebounds, 0.5 blocks, 74 percent free throw shooting, 42.7 percent field goal percentage and the 1.2 triples per game while getting 34 minutes a night and having no competition for the ball on a really bad team. He’ll probably prove me wrong at some point, but I’m OK with that.

Round 6

Derrick White BOS G

Marcus Smart is in Memphis (where he should do very well) and White could now take control of the Boston offense. He’s a little older at 29 but if you look at his 11 February games last season he averaged 19.7 points, 4.5 rebounds, 5.6 assists and 2.8 3-pointers. He’s not a great stealer of the ball but he’s lights-out from the free throw line and shoots it well from the field. I think he’s primed for his biggest season yet.

Other Round 6 targets include Jerami Grant, Tyrese Maxey (especially if James Harden sits out), Cameron Johnson, Devin Vassell and Michael Porter Jr. I’m not touching Zion Williamson with a 10-foot pole, but he went in Round 6 in that mock draft.

Round 7

Tyus Jones WAS PG

As long as Jones is the starting point guard for the Wizards, he should be good to go this season. He never really had big numbers in Memphis, but he was always trapped behind Morant, which won’t be the case in Washington. Yes, he might have to slap Jordan Poole around to get the ball out of his hands and the Wiz will be one of the worst teams in the league, but Jones should be a point guard steal in drafts this season. He’s 27 years old.

Other Round 7 targets include Buddy Hield, Marcus Smart and Morant.

Round 8

De’Anthony Melton PHI G

There’s a lot to love about Round 8 this season and here’s how the mock draft I’ve obsessively talked about throughout this column went:

  • C.J. McCollum NOP G
  • Draymond Green GSW PF/C
  • Jalen Green HOU G
  • Scoot Henderson POR PG
  • Markelle Fultz ORL G
  • Daniel Gafford WAS PF
  • Austin Reaves LAL SG/SF
  • Trey Murphy NOP F (he’s since had knee surgery and is out for three months)
  • Shaedon Sharpe POR SG/SF
  • Jabari Smith HOU PF/C
  • De’Anthony Melton PHI G
  • Mark Williams CHA C

I’m not touching Draymond Green. Danny Gafford currently doesn’t qualify as a center in Yahoo! and Trey Murphy is hurt. But I kind of like the rest of these guys. Just keep in mind C.J. McCollum takes a hit if Zion and Brandon Ingram can actually stay healthy, Jalen Green gets a boost from the absence of Kevin Porter Jr. but also takes a hit with the arrival of Fred VanVleet, and Scoot Henderson and Shaedon Sharpe’s value could be tied to what happens with Damian Lillard (we’re hearing Toronto is leading the way now).

So, after all that my preferred order is Melton, Mark Williams, Austin Reaves and Jabari Smith. I took Melton at the end of Round 8 and if Harden continues to fight with the Sixers and sits out or pouts his way out of Philly, Melton is going to blow up. His game is built for fantasy success if he can get a lead role. And Williams is on nearly everyone’s sleeper list as a breakout center candidate for Charlotte.

Round 9

Tre Jones SAS PG

Jones is in a similar position to that of Tyus Jones in Washington except that he’s four years younger and will be playing with Wemby. He made a huge leap last season by doubling up on his points, assists, steals and 3-pointers from the previous season, he shoots it well from everywhere and doesn’t turn the ball over much. Point guards are gold in fantasy these days and both of the Jones’ should be primed for big years without breaking your draft bank.

Other Round 9 targets include Keegan Murray (he can’t be that bad again, right?), Onyeka Okongwu, John Collins and Spencer Dinwiddie.

Round 10

Bruce Brown IND G/SF

The Pacers paid Brown big money to come to Indy over the summer and while some depth charts don’t show him as a starter, I’ll believe it when I see it. He’s capable of holding offenses and defenses together on both ends of the floor and should be one of Haliburton’s favorite teammates. Coaches love him, Pacers fans will love him and I think he’ll do a little bit of everything for fantasy managers without hurting them anywhere. He’s a perfect Round 10 selection, in my opinion.

The Rest

Players I will be targeting in the later rounds include (in no particular order): Jordan Clarkson, Gary Trent Jr., Zach Collins, Immanuel Quickley, Amen Thompson, Jaden Ivey, Jarace Walker, Dennis Schroder (if Dame Lillard doesn’t show up in Toronto and ruin him), Obi Toppin, James Wiseman and Caleb Martin

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Weather Report:

There are only three games on the slate today and none should be impacted by precipitation.

Injury Report:

Jorge Soler - Hip - He left Tuesday’s contest against the Rays with right hip tightness. He is considered day-to-day and could be ready to go against the Nationals.

Lane Thomas - Back - He was lifted prior to the seventh inning due to back soreness. It doesn’t sound serious but there is a chance he sits out Thursday.

Mitch Haniger - Rest - Haniger returned from the injured list on Tuesday and sat out against a righty but the team said it was only due to rest. He should be ready to go on Thursday.

Starting Pitchers (DK-FD)

Spencer Strider: 12,500-12,000

Lance Lynn: 8,800-9,500

Braxton Garrett: 8,200-8,700

Pedro Avila: 6,300-6,700

Joan Adon: 5,400-6,400

Sean Manaea: 5,000-7,300

Spencer Strider is the highest-priced pitcher for the slate, which shouldn’t be surprising. He easily leads the slate with a 2.75 SIERA, 1.06 WHIP, and 38 percent strikeout rate. His 1.06 HR/9 is the highest of his career, without taking the two game appearance in the majors late in 2021 into account. His 60 percent HR/Barrel rate is above league average, which indicates that he could be getting a bit unlucky with the long ball. He faces a tough team in the Dodgers which makes the 12K+ price tag a bit steep.

Strider gets to go toe-to-toe with Lance Lynn in the last game in the slate on Tuesday. To say that Lynn has had an up-and-down season is a bit of an understatement. Lynn has a 3.99 SIERA, 1.38 WHIP, and 26 percent strikeout rate on the season but most of the damage was done while he was a member of the Chicago White Sox. Since joining the Dodgers, he has a 4.30 SIERA, 1.06 WHIP, and 21 percent strikeout rate. He faces a very tough task of facing the Braves in Dodgers Stadium. Since both of these pitchers face uphill battles, going cheap on the pitching while loading up on bats, could work tonight.

Braxton Garrett gets to face the Nationals for the second game in a row. Last time out, he allowed three runs over six innings while only picking up three strikeouts. This time around, he will be in the Nationals home ballpark, which has been below league average when it comes to the long ball, especially with the forecast projecting the winds to be blowing into the ballpark.

Batter to Target

Joan Adon is a pitcher that could be easily exploited in this small slate. His 4.44 SIERA is easily the worst of the group ad Nationals Park is a bit hitter-friendly this season. While the Marlins hitters have struggled in the second of the season Jake Burger ($4,100 on DK and $3,000 on FanDuel) could be an option for fantasy managers looking some cheap power.

Stack Attack

Marlins (Braxton Garrett) vs. Nationals:

DK-FD

Lane Thomas: 4,900-3,200

Keibert Ruiz: 4,000-2,600

Joey Meneses: 4,400-2,700

If Lane Thomas is ready to go on Thursday, he is a must add. The 28-year-old is hitting .346/.393/.591 with eight homers and nine stolen bases against southpaws this season. Ruiz and Meneses also have been above league average against left-handed pitching while hitting towards the top of the Nationals lineup.

Giants (Manaea) vs. Padres:

DK-FD

Ha-Seong Kim: 4,900-3,100

Gary Sanchez: 3,800-2,600

Garrett Cooper: 2,900-2,400

Trent Grisham: 2,800-2,500

The Giants haven’t officially named a starter for Thursday’s contest against the Padres but Sean Manaea figures to fill in as the bulk reliever. Ha-Seong Kim has been out of his mind in the second half of the season, while posting a season long line of .329/.413/.579 with eight homers and ten stolen bases against left-handed pitching. Sánchez and Grisham have also hit above league average against lefties and can be add at some really low prices. Cooper has moved up to sixth in the Padres batting order after Jake Cronenworth landed on the injured list with a fractured wrist. If the Padres bats come to life at the top of the order, you could pick up some RBIs at a considerably low price point.

It’s another full slate of games Wednesday, and there are more than a handful of interesting options to gander over. Colorado-Atlanta provides some intriguing value, but a ‘lesser’ game like Kansas City taking on Pittsburgh also offers intrigue.

Here are tonight’s Underdog and Prizepicks plays for Wednesday’s MLB slate.

Bobby Witt Jr. 1.5 Total Bases - Higher (Underdog)

It’d be hard to overstate just how good the Royals' infielder has been in August, as the young star has hit.327/.379/.626 with eight homers while stealing nine bags and driving in 21 runs even for a weak team. On Wednesday, he’ll go up against the Pirates' Andre Jackson; who pitched decently over his last two starts but offers plenty of opportunity with less-than-spectacular stuff. Don’t be surprised if Witt Jr. offers a combo meal with a homer and a steal, and he’s a good bet to reach the over on that 1.5 total.

Nolan Jones : 1.5 Total Bases - Higher (Prizepicks)

Somewhat quietly, Jones has been one of the better rookies in baseball, coming into Wednesday with a slash of .271/.353/.488. He’ll get a chance to place in the friendly confines of Coors Field, and the former Cleveland prospect will also get a chance to face a right-hander who is making his MLB debut in Darius Vines. Jones is hitless in his last three games, and while that makes things a little more nerve-wracking, it also means he’s due for a big game.

Matt Olson: 0.5 RBI - More (Prizepicks)

Olson will be going up against a lefty in Kyle Freeland, and while he is statistically worse against southpaws than he is righties, worse is a subjective term considering he’s posted an .891 OPS with nine homers and 27 RBI over his 125 plate appearances. Add in the fact he’ll be playing in the friendly confines of Coors Field with some elite hitters hitting in front of him, and Olson is as good of a bet for an RBI as any player Wednesday.

Dane Dunning: 4.0 strikeouts - Higher (Underdog)

Dunning has been able to miss bats at much higher rate as of late, with 39 strikeouts over 29.2 innings of work in his five starts thus far in August. The Mets certainly offer a chance for missed bats, and are not exactly in striking distance for a playoff spot. Dunning should be able to hit his mark as long as he can throw enough strikes to do so; something he admittedly struggled with Friday against the Twins.

Brandon Pfaadt : 4.5 Strikeouts - Lower (Underdog)

There’s reason for long-term upside with Pfaadt, as he was one of the best minor-league hurlers in baseball in 2022, and there have been some flashes of brilliance in 2023 despite his ugly 5.91 ERA and 1.36 WHIP over 67 innings during his rookie campaign. Asking him to reach this total is asking him to work deep against the Dodgers, a lineup that is as feared as any in all of baseball. There’s just too much risk on betting overs with Pfaadt against this kind of team.

The Houston Astros have terrorized the Boston Red Sox this week, putting up 19 runs over the last two games, both of which started by two of Boston’s best pitchers, Chris Sale and Brayan Bello.

Sale and Bello kept the games close, giving up three and two earned runs respectively, but the bullpen couldn’t contain Houston’s bats. Jose Altuve hit for the cycle in the first game, and Yordan Álvarez homered in both games, hitting seven for nine over the two nights.

Vlad Jr Could Go Off Wednesday

The Contrarian Edge Optimizer likes the idea of doubling down on the Astros stack -- a lineup that tied a franchise record 66 hits in the last four games -- but there are also alternatives to consider. Specifically, take a look at Toronto and Seattle. Both have excellent matchups today, so let’s take a closer look.

The Blue Jays face off against Patrick Corbin and the Nationals at the Rogers Centre this afternoon. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ($5000) could be poised for a big day. He’s riding a 10-game hitting streak, during which time he's slashing .302/.333/.438 with two home runs.

If you’re looking for some cheaper options to round out your lineup, keep an eye on both Blue Jays catchers. Danny Jansen ($3600) and Alejandro Kirk ($3000) are each available for less than $4000 on Draft Kings and rostering them should allow you a few extra dollars to roster a top tier bat or one of the three best pitchers on today’s card.

Either Santiago Espinal ($2400) or Whit Merrifield ($4400) could offer hits and runs if the Blue Jays put it together. And don’t sleep on George Springer ($4700), who’s been back in the leadoff spot this series and has put together a really nice run with a five-game hitting streak.

No August swoon for Seattle bats

The Mariners bats were momentarily silenced at T-Mobile Park on Tuesday night, but they’ve been red hot this month, leading the team to a 20-6 record in August. They should stack up nicely against Zach Neal, who’s starting for Oakland for the first time since 2016.

The Mariners have been excellent against right-handed pitchers this season, hitting .240/.323/.419 with a team wRC+ of 108 this season. During their hot streak this August, those numbers are even more impressive -- .279/.363/.486 and a wRC+ of 138 against right-handed pitching.

The Optimizer likes Seattle's Teoscar Hernandez ($4500) as one of your outfielders, and you could do worse than supplementing his production with leadoff man JP Crawford ($4300). Third baseman Eugenio Suarez ($4600) offers some nice pop and while you should avoid Julio Rodriguez, who is day-to-day after a late scratch on Tuesday night, Dominic Canzone ($3000) is a very cost-effective option who’s been on a nice run over the last 10 days, hitting .306/.306/.500.

Pitchers to consider

As for pitching, the wind is blowing in at Wrigley Field, and the Brewers' Brandon Woodruff ($10200) has looked every bit like the ace we know he can be since coming back from the injured list. He’s thrown 22.2 innings across four starts with 29 strikeouts, and only the Rangers scored more than two runs against Woodruff since his return.

Another pitcher to consider is the Giants' Logan Webb ($9500), who has gone five or more innings in 18 of 19 starts this season – including a seven-inning start with seven strikeouts against the Reds at Great American Ballpark in July.

Oracle is a much more pitcher-friendly environment, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Webb surpass that strikeout total from July with a free-swinging Reds team that ranks 25th in MLB with a 24.5 percent strikeout rate.

There are 15 MLB games on tap for Tuesday and a ton of opportunities to cash. The Seattle Mariners-Oakland Athletics game is very intriguing on both sides, and the Mariners have been one of the hottest hitting teams in baseball over the last few weeks. Here are tonight’s Underdog and Prizepicks plays for Tuesday’s MLB slate.

Teoscar Hernandez: 1.5 Total Bases - Higher (Underdog)
Hernandez has been excellent against left-handed pitchers and Ken Waldichuk has let up six hits or more in three of his last four starts, and he’s sporting an earned run average over six.

He’s hit the over on one and a half total bases in seven straight games. He’s homered three times in his last three contests. Hernandez is scorching hot hitting the ball in August, and he sits with a .371 batting average this month. Waldichuk has been a weaker pitcher on the road than at home, and tonight’s game is in Seattle.

Ty France: 0.5 Singles - Higher (Underdog)
France has singled in five of his last seven contests, and he hits way better against lefties, hitting .309 against them. France is having one of his better hitting months as he’s batting .284 in August. Waldichuk is more of a groundball pitcher, and France hits over 42 percent when it comes to ground balls. Between the amount of hits Waldichuk has given up lately, his struggles on the road and France having a strong month at the dish, he should be able to get on base this evening.

Ken Waldichuk: 5.5 Hits Allowed - More (Prizepicks)
With Waldichuk giving up at least six hits in a few starts recently, it’s hard to think that he’ll be able to shut down the Mariners who have been the best hitting team by average in the MLB over the last two weeks and third best over the last seven days. Waldichuk has a 7.43 earned run average, and opponents hit .303 against him when he’s starting on the road. Seattle hits .262 against left-handed pitchers which is the 8th highest in the majors.

Jose Altuve: 2.0 Hits+Runs+RBIs - Higher (Underdog)
Altuve has crossed the plate nine times total over his last three games. During that span he hit the ball seven times and produced five RBIs. Altuve hits .335 against right-handed pitchers, and even though Boston Red Sox pitcher Brayan Bello hasn’t given up a ton of runs in his starts recently, he’s allowed six hits or more in five straight starts. Last week in this exact matchup, Bello gave up nine hits against Houston, and since then, Altuve has heated up. Altuve has also been a better hitter on the road than at home, and this game is in Boston.

Manny Machado: 0.5 Singles - Higher (Underdog)
Machado has been reaching base a lot lately. Tonight, he faces St. Louis Cardinals pitcher Zack Thompson who is not only a lefty, but he’s surrendered six hits in both of his last two outings. Machado hits .327 against left-handed pitchers and he’s hit a single in three of his last five games.

Marcus Semien: 0.5 Singles - Higher (Underdog)
Semien hits better against left-handed pitchers than right-handed pitchers. He’s hit singles in four of his last seven games, and the Rangers' bats have woken up a bit in the last week. Semien has a good history against New York Mets pitcher Jose Quintana, hitting the ball six times in 13 at-bats against him. He has the most hits for the Rangers this season.