October 14, 2023
NBA

Predictions for the 2023-24 NBA Season

Bucks might be the NBA's best team after shocking offseason trade
Credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports

The 2023 NBA season is almost here. The offseason never fails to disappoint, as I call it the best drama in the world. Last season we saw Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets stake their claim at the top, but will they follow that up with the same success?

The Milwaukee Bucks made the surprise move of the summer when they acquired Damian Lillard, thereby becoming the odds-on-favorite to win the NBA championship. The Bucks swept the rug right out from under the Miami Heat, who had been rumored to be the top potential landing spot for Lillard. Still, the Heat won’t go down without a fight if Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo are playing in South Beach.

Quietly, the Boston Celtics have had an extremely strong offseason, getting the ‘Unicorn’ Kristaps Porzingis to play alongside Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown.

Perhaps the most surprising move was the snowball effect of the Lillard trade. Jrue Holiday was sent to Portland in the package for Lillard, and the Blazers quickly flipped Holiday in another trade. The Celtics jumped at the opportunity and acquired Holiday, whom they believe will push them to the next level.

So which franchise will ascend to win the NBA championship?

Current NBA Championship Odds (Via FanDuel)
  • Boston Celtics +380
  • Milwaukee Bucks +380
  • Denver Nuggets +550
  • Phoenix Suns +550
  • Los Angeles Lakers +1300
  • Golden State Warriors +1400 
2024 NBA Championship Prediction

Following the Lillard trade, the Milwaukee Bucks were immediately pegged as favorites. There is still a looming question of Giannis Antetokounmpo’s future with Milwaukee, but acquiring Lillard certainly puts fear into the Eastern Conference. Dare I say Giannis and Dame are the best inside-outside dual threat since Shaq and Kobe?

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The Bucks will be tough, but there’s another team in the Eastern Conference that can go toe to toe with them -- the Boston Celtics. They also have a new-look lineup with the additions of Porzingis and Holiday, and All-NBA guards Brown and Tatum were already a powerful tandem.

The Phoenix Suns are primed to make a run at the Nuggets out West after they upgraded their roster. Phoenix acquired Kevin Durant midseason a year ago, and to do so, they squandered any depth they had on its roster. The Suns have taken the offseason to build back its lineup and lengthen its bench. I’m not convinced they have enough on the defensive end to slow down the Nuggets or Warriors in a playoff matchup.

The Milwaukee Bucks are my pick to win the 2024 NBA Championship. Lillard has excellent playoff experience and is the right fit to play alongside two-time MVP Antetokounmpo. Khris Middleton is one of the most underrated players in recent memory and is healthy after dealing with injuries all last season. Milwaukee has unfinished business and a chip on their shoulder after getting bounced in the first round by the Miami Heat. Milwaukee has great depth with their bench, led by Bobby Portis, Malik Beasley, Jae Crowder, and Cam Payne. Many people love the Nuggets to repeat, but it’s a tall task to repeat as champions in any major sport.

Pick: Bucks +380

Eastern Conference Odds (Via FanDuel)
  • Milwaukee Bucks +175
  • Boston Celtics +175
  • Cleveland Cavaliers +750
  • Philadelphia 76ers +1000
  • Miami Heat +1100
  • New York Knicks +160

Spoiler alert --I clearly believe in the Bucks to be crowned Eastern Conference Champions. Lillard is a bona fide superstar pairing with Giannis. The story we’ll hear about all season long is that Giannis is playing without a long-term contract. There will be plenty of incentive for the Bucks to return to the NBA Finals.

The defending Eastern Conference champions aren’t going to sneak up on anyone this season. The Miami Heat sit fifth in Eastern Conference winner odds. They were the big losers of the summer, missing out on the big names. The Knicks are a fun team to watch after a run to the Eastern Conference semifinals last season. Led By Jalen Brunson, it will be interesting to see if the Knicks will be able to duplicate the success. My guess is no.

Surprisingly, the Cavaliers fall next in line behind the Bucks and Celtics. Cleveland has an excellent core of Donovan Mitchell, Darius Garland, Evan Mobley, and Jarrett Allen. The Cavs were bounced out of the playoffs by the Knicks, and they will likely be one of the hungriest teams in the East.

The Eastern Conference will eventually come down to the two juggernauts. Hopefully, we get to see the Bucks and Celtics square off in a 7-game series. During the last playoff run, there were multiple instances that left us questioning the coaching decisions of Joe Mazzulla and the Celtics staff. Mazzulla will be in his second year as Head Coach, but we can’t ignore the poor decision-making we saw last postseason. The Celtics bench depth can’t compare to the Bucks, so ultimately, Milwaukee will represent the Eastern Conference in the NBA Finals.

Prediction: Bucks +175

Western Conference Odds (Via FanDuel)
  • Denver Nuggets +270
  • Phoenix Suns +270
  • Los Angeles Lakers +750
  • Golden State Warriors +750
  • Memphis Grizzlies +1000
  • Los Angeles Clippers +1200
  • Dallas Mavericks +1300 

It’s no secret the Western Conference is deep. There happens to be decent value on a few teams out West. The Nuggets are the favorites alongside the Suns after their dominating postseason run on their way to an NBA Championship. Nikola Jokic is a special player, and the rest of the roster will be returning outside of Bruce Brown. Jamal Murray put together a great season, but the Nuggets will likely require a third superstar to step up if they want to make another deep run.

The Phoenix Suns, led by Devin Booker and Kevin Durant, are breathing down the necks of the Nuggets. The Suns somehow acquired Bradley Beal in a trade that involved Chris Paul and now have arguably a more dynamic Big 3 than we saw in Miami with LeBron, Dwayne Wade, and Chris Bosh. The Suns made another significant trade as they were the third team involved with the Bucks and Trail Blazers that sent Damian Lillard to Milwaukee. Phoenix moved on from Deandre Ayton and was able to add Jusuf Nurkic and Grayson Allen. I’m not convinced the Suns have enough depth still on its roster behind Durant, Booker, and Beal, who have all dealt with injuries in some capacity the last couple of seasons. If the Suns happen to come into the playoffs healthy, it will be difficult for any team to take down the powerhouse trio in the desert.

When I look at the West, I can’t help but look further down the board. Do the Warriors have another championship run in the tank after adding Chris Paul? Golden State isn’t far removed from being the latest greatest NBA dynasty. The Lakers, led by LeBron James, are also set up to truly contend for the first time in a season that wasn’t in the bubble.

The Lakers had a terrific run in the second half of last season that saw them reach the Western Conference Finals. As always, the question is, can LJ and AD remain healthy? The Lakers have one of the most balanced rosters, with an excellent core that includes D’Angelo Russell, Austin Reaves, and Rui Hachimura. LA also added key pieces such as Gabe Vincent, Christian Wood, and Taurean Prince.

Unless Michael Porter Jr. or Aaron Gordon steps up and becomes the third superstar for Denver, I think we’ll see a new team representing the West in the Finals. A Bucks-Lakers Finals would be entertaining and might be our last chance at watching LeBron in the Finals. I believe Rob Pelinka and the Lakers understand the clock is ticking and will do everything they can to make sure LeBron is surrounded by the right pieces to reach the Finals one more time.

Prediction: Lakers +750

NBA Division Predictions
Eastern Conference

Atlantic Division Odds (Via FanDuel)

  • Celtics -240
  • 76ers +340
  • Knicks +750
  • Nets +2700
  • Raptors +3900 

The Atlantic division is probably the murkiest of them all in the Eastern Conference. Yet, the Boston Celtics will likely be too much for any team to keep up with during the regular season. Boston will look a bit differently from recent years with the additions of Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porzingis. The reigning league MVP Joel Embiid won’t go down without a fight though, as he in the 76ers are a true contender in the East.

Pick: Celtics -240

Central Division Odds (Via FanDuel)

  • Bucks -360
  • Cavaliers +260
  • Bulls +3600
  • Pacers +3600
  • Pistons +25000 

If I weren’t so high on the Bucks, this would be a division with value. The Cavaliers should be even more improved with their excellent young core. The Pacers are one of my favorite teams to surprise season. It’s been three years since Indiana made the playoffs, but I think that ends in 2023. They have a solid group led by Tyrese Haliburton, Myles Turner, and Bruce Brown. The Pacers will be among the play-in teams this season. Ultimately the Bucks will run away with the Central Division crown.

Pick: Bucks -360

Southeast Division Odds (Via FanDuel)

  • Heat -190
  • Hawks +220
  • Magic +900
  • Hornets +2800
  • Wizards +12000 

There isn’t much competition for the Miami Heat in the Southeast division, but the Atlanta Hawks will be coached by Quin Snyder for the first full season. Trae Young and Dejounte Murray can be a dynamic guard pairing, but the Heat are still the team to beat in the Southeast. The Magic are an exciting team to keep an eye on, but they have plenty of work to do.

Pick: Heat -190

Western Conference

Northwest Division Odds (Via FanDuel)

  • Nuggets -390
  • Timberwolves +550
  • Thunder +600
  • Jazz +4200
  • Trail Blazers +8000 

The Denver Nuggets should run away with the Northwest Division.

Pick: Nuggets -390

Pacific Division Odds (Via FanDuel)

  • Suns +130
  • Lakers +370
  • Warriors +390
  • Kings +650
  • Clippers +650 

The Pacific is far and away the deepest division. Every team is a contender in the West. Last season, Sacramento surprised most when they won the division. According to the sportsbooks, the new-look Phoenix Suns, led by the NBA’s newest Big 3, are the favorites to usurp Denver out West. The Suns will require to stay healthy though, as their bench is very thin compared to some of the other teams in the Pacific.

We can never rule out the Dubs. They have one of the deepest rosters in the NBA and will be refueled for another championship run. The biggest maybe in the NBA is the question of health for the Clippers. With a core of Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, and Russell Westbrook, they can compete with any team in the NBA IF they are healthy. That’s not something I’m willing to trust. The Lakers barely made the postseason a year ago, but they got to the Western Conference Finals. They have its best roster entering a season since LeBron joined LA. It will be difficult for the Kings to repeat, and the Suns are an injury away from disaster.

Pick: Warriors +390

Southwest Division Odds (Via FanDuel)

  • Grizzlies +145
  • Mavericks +185
  • Pelicans +210
  • Rockets +4500
  • Spurs +8000 

The Southwest is the most intriguing out West. Will Victor Wembanyama make an immediate impact for the Spurs? Will the Rockets make the next step after bringing in free agents Fred VanVleet and Dillon Brooks to play alongside emerging stars Jabari Smith Jr. and Jalen Green? The Mavs' Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving might be the most polarizing backcourt in NBA history. The Memphis Grizzlies are the favorites, but they may stumble early with Ja Morant suspended for the first 25 games and I’m not convinced the addition of Marcus Smart will be enough to make up for it. There are no excuses for Zion Williamson. The Pelicans ranked 8th overall in offense, and they were 10 games over .500 before Zion was injured in the middle of last season.

Pick: Pelicans +210

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Intro: I watch the TNF games (and every NFL game) live, then watch it again on tape for scouting Fantasy/DFS and future betting (player props) purposes. I am a decade-plus-long football scout and Fantasy writer/player (and bettor) of football things. I am a fan of no NFL team, except the one I may have bet on. I review/study game tape for personal profit (or loss) in DFS and handicapping/props.

Let’s look at the BEST and WORST of TNF Week 5, Bears at Commanders.

WORST -- The Milly Maker 1st-Place Win Streak is Broken

After two TNF Milly Maker 1st-place finishes back-to-back, we didn’t win it this week. What? I thought you could just dial up these wins with the FSL Contrarian Optimizer! I thought it was our personal ATM!

No 1st-prize share on TNF. That’s always a ‘worst’ now. Expectations are high for the Optimizer every week based on our previous 2023 performances.

Oh, well. Moving on to Sunday and Sunday night game, and then MNF, then next week’s TNF …

WORST -- Coulda, Woulda, Shoulda

We almost got to the promised land again -- one player off on one of the entries. ‘SO CLOSE’/’one player off’ DFS losses are an easy ‘worst’.

BEST -- D.J. Moore Goes Off

Moore opened the game with 2 catches for 78 yards and a TD -- just like that. Then, he ended the game with a 56-yard catch-and-run TD. Eight catches for 230 yards and 3 TDs total. What a night for Moore.

WORST -- You Do Know D.J. Moore is the Only Guy Fields Throws To, right?

Coming into this game, Moore had caught 54.3% of the passes among all Bears wide receivers. He also made up 60.6% of the receiving yards among all the Bears wide receivers. Moore also has half the receiving TDs among all the Bears wide receivers.

It’s fair to say everyone reading this knew that Moore was basically the only wide receiver Fields looks for.

How is it that the Commanders secondary didn’t plan for that? It’s shocking how wide open the one guy Fields successfully works with was. What did the Commanders think was going To happen in the passing game?

BEST -- FF Lineups with D.J. Moore

I don’t know why, but doesn’t it seem like whenever you have Fantasy players (in head-to-head) going in a TNF game, they suck! And even worse, then you only have 3 days to brew/wallow about it until the rest of your Fantasy team gets after it?

Not this night with DJM.

And obviously, you needed Moore to be your Showdown DFS captain to try to get in on the top prize, and if he was, you had DFS money hopes.

WORST -- If You Faced D.J. Moore in Head-to-Head This Week

Even worse than your own starting player sucking on TNF and thus stewing about it for days, is the nightmare of having the ‘luck’ of your FF opponent this week having Moore. That’s a little extra dose of horrible luck that you can stew about for a few days as well.

BEST -- Justin Fields Delivers to D.J. Moore

On the other end of the D.J. explosion was the maligned Fields. He didn’t look amazing, but he hit on the passes to Moore to rack up nice numbers and finally ran for better yards than he had the past few weeks. QB1 night, maybe the #1 QB1 this week event for the unpredictable Fields.

WORST -- Did You Bench Justin Fields This Week?

What might be worse than any of your Fantasy players sucking on TNF or facing D.J. Moore this week? Did you have Fields on your bench? Enjoy staring at that 30+ point score every time you look at your roster the next few days.

EXTRA WORST -- Did You Trade Justin Fields This Week?

What is definitely worse than any of your Fantasy players sucking on TNF, or facing D.J. Moore or benching Fields, is if you had traded Fields.

Three duds to start FF 2023 for Fields, then a spike in Week 4 that you had to make a call on going forward. Was it Fields ‘figuring it out’ last week? Or was it Denver being so bad on defense that this week seemed like a good escape hatch to deal Fields.

There’s pressure on whatever player/s you acquired for Fields to make this all feel better this weekend.

It’s that time of the week, everyone’s second-favorite (perhaps third-favorite?) day – Friday! You know what that means, it’s time to fade a player -- or five in DFS -- Steezy A style.

Before we commence, I must issue a public apology to Lamar Jackson.

For the second consecutive week, I wasn’t in my right mind and faded a top 5 player at his position; Jackson not only had 4 touchdowns (2 rushing, 2 passing) in a blowout victory over Cleveland, he was QB3 in Week 4 and apparently he was a ‘fade.’

I’ll take this one to the chin and own it. My bad, Lamar! As per usual, all salaries provided are courtesy of DraftKings.

QB: Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars ($6,600, QB9 at cost)

Will the real Trevor Lawrence PLEASE STAND UP?

Pro Football Focus might have Lawrence as one of their highest-graded QBs of the season thus far, but he hasn’t looked like the same QB that dominated the second half of last season and he definitely hasn’t looked like one of the highest-graded.

And that’s with Calvin Ridley, who has cooled off after a monstrous debut with the Jags in Week 1, having yet to clear more than 40 yards since.

What’s going on in Duval?

Lawrence has only had one multi-TD game, has yet to pass for more than 280 yards and his ownership percentage on DraftKings is a measly 0.2 percent, which means others are catching on.

Yes, the Jaguars might ‘own’ London (where they’ll be playing again this week against the Buffalo Bills), but if you’re looking to own a dub this week, you’re better off starting someone else at QB.

The Bills rank 6th in total defense, 4th in passing defense (less than 170 yards per game), 1st in sacks (16) and might have Von Miller back.

It’s certainly possible Lawrence gets back on track against a top tier AFC team in what could be a shootout, but until we see the fantasy production on the field, it’s hard to justify spending or even starting Lawrence in a 1-QB league when there’s a slew of cheaper options.

RB: Javonte Williams, Denver Broncos ($5,500, RB25 at cost)

Having yet to exceed 65 scrimmage yards, it’s fair to wonder whether Williams’ ceiling is capped in Denver’s offense.

While a workhorse workload wasn’t ever in the cards – Williams is bouncing back from a torn ACL suffered in Week 4 of last season – Denver has more than enough depth at RB to extinguish that possibility.

Williams (hip) practiced on Thursday but given a tough matchup with the Jets and the emergence of rookie RB Jaleel McLaughlin as well as veteran RB Samaje Perine, it’s too risky to expect Williams to perform at his RB25 price tag (his highest weekly finish so far this season is RB27).

The matchup isn’t there. The workload isn’t there. The red zone opportunities aren’t there. The additional usage in the passing game isn’t necessarily there either. Will he be 100% as far as health? One could argue health might not be there either.

It’s not difficult, rather an easy decision. Fade Williams in ALL FANTASY FORMATS this week.

WR: Jerry Jeudy, Denver Broncos ($6,300, WR18 at cost)

Statistically, the Jets’ pass defense isn’t where it was last season, but that’s not to say they won’t pose a significant threat to the Broncos’ offense, specifically their pass catchers.

Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen have combined to turn the ball over a whopping six times against the Jets this season. Yikes.

A lack of 100% health has more likely than not played a role in Jeudy’s slow start to the season, but a showdown with a lockdown secondary is the last place I’d look for a wide receiver to have his breakout game.

Surprisingly, the Broncos are 10th in scoring with 25 points per game, but they’ve played the Raiders, Bears, and Commanders, all of whom have bottom-10 defenses. Given how horrid the Denver offense was last season, I’m not sold yet.

To top it off, Courtland Sutton seems to be Russell Wilson’s favorite target through four weeks, as he already has more TD’s this season (3) than he did all of last year (2).

Given the emergence of tertiary options like Brandon Johnson, Marvin Mims, and Jaleel McLaughlin, it’s hard to trust Jeudy as a top-20 play at his position with a WR18 price tag.

It’s a hard pass for me until he’s back to being that guy that averaged 91.6 receiving yards in the last five games of last season.

TE: Darren Waller, New York Giants ($5,400, TE4 at cost)

Going into draft season, the hype on Darren Waller was real.

Allegedly, someone at the Fantasy Expo in Ohio this past summer apparently walked around with a name tag that didn’t have their name, but the statement “Darren Waller will be the overall TE1 in fantasy this season” or something like that.

How asinine!

Waller hasn’t been horrible, but he hasn’t been anywhere near the top-3 TE everybody was drafting/expecting him to be. Perhaps the Giants are misusing him? Sitting at TE13 in standard scoring PPR leagues, I’d say that’s a fair assessment.

Only one game on the season so far with more than three receptions? Less than 40 yards in three out of four games? One double-digit fantasy scoring output?

If you have Waller in a season-long league, I’m not recommending that you drop him. Should he be in your starting lineups? Probably not, but he’s best on your bench if you haven’t already been fielding offers.

Some will blame it on the slate of nasty defenses the Giants have had to (attempt) to slay, but that’s not enough for me. What I will say though, is that given the shallow nature of the TE position, Waller’s upside is still intriguing, but to pay near top dollar for Waller in Week 5 just doesn’t have any merit when there are so many tight ends you can get cheaper that’ll put up comparable numbers.

Waller’s a fade for me every week until the Giants can find some semblance of competency on offense.

FLEX: George Pickens, Pittsburgh Steelers ($5,200, WR21 at cost)

Sometimes in fantasy, no matter how talented a player might appear to be, said talent doesn’t always translate to fantasy production.

Case in point, the man they call ‘NFL Youngboy.’

When you’re catching passes on a team that only averages 15.5 points and 263 total yards per game, both real-life points and fantasy points are going to be at a premium.

When your offensive coordinator is Matt Canada and your offense has gotten worse every season for the last three years, both real-life points and fantasy points are going to be a premium.

Pickens only has one game with more than four receptions, so I don’t know if he has a solid enough floor to warrant starting consideration, specifically in DFS.

At WR37 on the season so far, Pickens’ Week 5 price-tag of WR21 is puzzling, especially when you take into consideration the fact that his QB is already dealing with injuries (and yes, I do realize that four teams are on bye, but WR21 is still too high for me)

The talent is undeniably there with Pickens, but as far as everything else around him? Sub-optimal to say the least, and that’s me being generous.

I’ll see y’all next week!

In points leagues, poor free throw shooters and high turnover players don't hurt fantasy managers as much as they in other leagues, while players who don't score a lot of points lose some value. Those low scorers can make up for it by doing things by stealing the ball, blocking shots or crashing the boards, but the main difference between category scoring vs. points scoring is that the glaring weaknesses of poor free throw shooters and high turnover guys don't ruin your team.

In a points league, you want guys who are going to score a lot while contributing in other categories. If a player doesn't score a lot, but does other things well, he will generally struggle to be a big contributor in points leagues in most cases.

Players who don't score much rank lower in this format than in others. But every scoring format is different and you have to know yours well. Even if a player doesn't score a ton of points, if your league rewards steals or blocks with 3.0 or more points per steal or block, players who excel there can overcome a low-scoring average.

These rankings below highly ignore statistics that negatively impact players in other formats. Players who turn the ball over or can't make free throws, but score a lot of points nightly, really excel in this format.

Points leagues were built for players like Giannis Antetokounmpo and Shaquille O'Neal back in the day, throwing their poor free throw shooting and lack of 3-pointers out the window.

Here are our rankings for points-based scoring systems for the 2023-24 NBA season:

RankingPlayerPosition
1Nikola JokicC
2Giannis AntetokounmpoPF
3Joel EmbiidC
4Luka DoncicPG/SG
5Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPG/SG
6Jayson TatumSF
7Tyrese HaliburtonPG/SG
8Bam AdebayoC
9Trae YoungPG/SG
10Domantas SabonisC
11Anthony DavisPF/C
12Mikal BridgesSG/SF
13Anthony EdwardsSG
14Stephen CurryPG
15Lauri MarkkanenPF
16Kevin DurantSF
17Pascal SiakamPF
18Damian LillardPG
19Karl-Anthony TownsPF/C
20Julius RandlePF
21De'Aaron FoxPG
22LeBron JamesSF/PF
23LaMelo BallPG
24Devin BookerPG/SG
25James HardenSG
26Nicolas ClaxtonC
27Deandre AytonC
28Evan MobleyPF/C
29Donovan MitchellSG
30Nikola VucevicC
31Walker KesslerC
32Jimmy ButlerSG/SF
33Jalen BrunsonPG
34Rudy GobertC
35Jarrett AllenC
36Alperen SengunC
37DeMar DeRozanSG
38Desmond BaneSG/SF
39Scottie BarnesPG/SF
40Brandon IngramSG/SF
41Darius GarlandPG
42Jaylen BrownSG
43Jamal MurrayPG
44Dejounte MurraySG
45Jaren JacksonPF/C
46Kyrie IrvingPG/SG
47Zach LaVineSG
48Paul GeorgeSG/SF
49Josh GiddeyPG/SG
50Paolo BancheroPF
51Franz WagnerSF
52Victor WembanyamaPF/C
53Jalen WilliamsSG
54Anfernee SimonsPG/SG
55Zion WilliamsonPF
56Cade CunninghamPG
57Fred VanVleetPG
58Kawhi LeonardSF/PF
59Jordan PooleSG
60OG AnunobySF
61Jonas ValanciunasC
62Jrue HolidayPG
63Bradley BealSG
64Tyrese MaxeyPG/SG
65Cameron JohnsonSF
66Miles BridgesSG
67Brook LopezC
68Myles TurnerPF/C
69Daniel GaffordPF/C
70Ja MorantPG
71Khris MiddletonSF
72Tyler HerroPG/SG
73CJ McCollumSG
74Andrew WigginsSG/SF
75Devin VassellSG
76Mark WilliamsC
77Tyus JonesPG
78Jakob PoeltlC
79Kyle KuzmaPF
80Terry RozierSG
81Markelle FultzPG
82Scoot HendersonPG/SG
83Wendell CarterPF/C
84Jalen GreenSG
85Marcus SmartPG/SG
86Klay ThompsonSG/SF
87Michael PorterSF
88Buddy HieldSG
89Austin ReavesSG/SF
90Tre JonesPG
91Draymond GreenPF
92Onyeka OkongwuC
93Kristaps PorzingisPF/C
94John CollinsPF
95Chris PaulPG
96Robert WilliamsC
97Jabari SmithPF
98Tobias HarrisPF
99Derrick WhitePG/SG
100Jerami GrantPF
101Trey MurphySF
102Immanuel QuickleyPG/SG
103Jusuf NurkicC
104Zach CollinsC
105Bruce BrownSG/SF
106Jordan ClarksonSG
107Shaedon SharpeSG
108De'Anthony MeltonPG/SG
109Dennis SchroderPG/SG
110Aaron GordonPF
111Amen ThompsonPG/SG
112Jalen DurenPF/C
113D'Angelo RussellPG/SG
114Clint CapelaC
115Spencer DinwiddiePG
116Chet HolmgrenC
117Keegan MurrayPF
118Mitchell RobinsonC
119Ben SimmonsPG/PF
120Josh HartSG
121Jaden McDanielsPF
122Gary TrentSG
123Jaden IveySG
124P.J. WashingtonPF/C
125Ivica ZubacC
126Keldon JohnsonSF
127Russell WestbrookPG/SG
128Mike ConleyPG
129Kevin HuerterSG
130Bojan BogdanovicSG
131Herbert JonesSG
132Bobby PortisPF/C
133Kyle AndersonSF
134Deni AvdijaSF
135Ausar ThompsonSF
136Tari EasonSG
137Paul ReedPF
138Bennedict MathurinSG
139Patrick WilliamsSF
140Malcolm BrogdonPG/SG
141Christian WoodPF/C
142Al HorfordPF/C
143Obi ToppinPF/C
144Harrison BarnesPF
145Saddiq BeySF
146Jeremy SochanSF
147Brandon MillerSF
148RJ BarrettSF
149Taylor HendricksPF
150Cameron PaynePG/SG
151Steven AdamsC
152Collin SextonSG
153Bol BolC
154Joe InglesSF
155Kelly OlynykPF/C
156Kentavious Caldwell-PopeSG
157Kevon LooneyPF/C
158AJ GriffinSF
159David RoddySG/SF
160Cason WallaceSG
161Quentin GrimesSF
162Bogdan BogdanovicSF
163Nick RichardsPF
164Georges NiangSF
165Jaylin WilliamsPF
166Kelly Oubre Jr.SF
167Moritz WagnerPF
168T.J. McConnellPG
169Terance MannSG
170Isaiah StewartPF/C
171Jalen JohnsonPF
172Rui HachimuraPF
173Dillon BrooksSG/SF
174Delon WrightSG
175Matisse ThybulleSG
176Naz ReidPF/C
177Christian BraunSG
178Nikola JovicPF
179Donte DiVincenzoSG
180James WisemanC
181Josh RichardsonSG
182Norman PowellSF
183Jarace WalkerSF
184Andrew NembhardSG
185Alex CarusoSG
186Jarred VanderbiltPF
187Grant WilliamsPF
188Trayce Jackson-DavisPF
189Mason PlumleeC
190Jevon CarterPG
191Peyton WatsonSG
192Cole AnthonyPG
193Nicolas BatumSF
194Caris LeVertSF
195Dereck LivelyC
196Gordon HaywardSF
197Jaxson HayesPF
198Tim HardawaySG
199Andre DrummondC
200Max StrusSG/SF

On paper, this isn’t exactly the most exciting Thursday Night Football game with neither the Commanders nor the Bears likely to be hoisting a trophy at the end of the year, but it’s still football, and there’s enough talent on both sides to call this a game worth watching. They’re all worth watching.

Game

Washington Commanders vs. Chicago Bears

Betting odds (DraftKings)
  • Line: Commanders -6
  • Moneyline:Commanders -265, Bears +215
  • Over/Under: 44.5
Team ranks

Commanders

  • Points per game: 22.3 (17th)
  • Points allowed per game: 30 (29th)

Bears

  • Points per game: 18.8 (22nd)
  • Points allowed per game: 34.3 (31st)
Key Fantasy Injuries

Bears

WR Chase Claypool (Other): OUT

Claypool will not be on the field again, as the Bears have effectively ended their partnership with the talented -- but extremely volatile – wideout (Note: Chicago gave up a high second-round pick to procure Claypool’s services last year for reasons that made little sense at the time and even less now). Outside of that, the Chicago offense is healthy.

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The defense can’t say the same. Defensive backs Eddie Jackson (foot) and Jaylon Johnson (hamstring) have been ruled out, and DB Jaquan Brisker (hamstring) is questionable. This is not a very good defense even with those names.

Commanders

RB Chris Rodriguez Jr. (Illness): QUESTIONABLE

Rodriguez missed Sunday’s overtime loss to the Eagles because of illness, but he was able to get practices in and has a good chance to play.. He won’t carry much fantasy relevance, however, playing behind both Brian Robinson Jr. and Antonio Gibson.

Jahan Dotson was limited by an ankle injury during Monday and Tuesday’s practices, but he carries no injury designation coming into Thursday and should be a full-go against the beat up -- and not very good, anyway -- Chicago secondary.

Big Names/Big Prices (DraftKings)
  • Justin Fields, QB: $16,500
  • Terry McLaurin, WR: $15,300
  • DJ Moore, WR: $15,000
  • Sam Howell, QB: $14,100
  • Brian Robinson Jr, RB: $13,800
  • Kahlil Herbert, RB: $12,900
  • Jahan Dotson, WR: $9,600
  • Cole Kmet, TE: $9,600

Fields struggled as a passer in the first three games of the season but did have a strong day against the Broncos in a losing cause Sunday, completing 28 of 35 passes (80 percent) with four touchdowns and 335 yards.

More on the NFL:

The Washington secondary has given up 920 passing yards and six touchdowns, which ranks 20th and 21st, respectively. The biggest concern is the Commanders can get to the quarterback and the Bears haven’t been able to protect Fields. But that could lead to scrambling opportunities and a decent rushing day.

Howell has been sacked 24 times -- 14 in the last two weeks. He did bounce back from his four-pick game against the Bills with a solid effort against the undefeated Eagles (29-for-41, 290 yds, 1/0 TD/INT).

Again, the Bears aren’t exactly the Legion of Boom secondary, but with these injuries to the secondary and talented options like McLaurin and Dotson to throw the ball to, this could be a strong game for Howell -- assuming the offensive line can keep him upright.

Kmet hauled in two receiving scores while picking up 85 yards on seven catches against the Broncos, but he’s a risky play Thursday. The Commanders rank third in fantasy points allowed to tight ends, and Kmet only had 11 catches for 104 yards with no scores prior to the Denver game. He’s the best of the options at the position Thursday, but those who don’t need to play a tight end might want to look elsewhere to fill out their rosters.

Sneaky options

Roschon Johnson, RB, CHI: $7,200

Johnson disappointed against the Broncos, with only 13 yards on five carries and only one target as a receiver. This is a bet on him being more involved in the passing game Thursday, as he’s a better option in that regard than Hebert, and he’ll likely be a safety valve for Fields against a strong Commanders pass rush.

We saw evidence of what Johnson can do with six catches in the opener against the Packers. It shouldn’t shock anyone if he received a similar level of opportunity in this one.

Dyami Brown, WR, WSH: $4,200

This is a dart throw, but it’s an intriguing one because of the cheaper price point. Brown hauled in two of his three targets for 51 yards against the Eagles, and the Bears’ secondary should allow opportunities.

The issue is McLaurin, Dotson and Curtis Samuel are likely to soak up most of that playing time, but I could see a similar yardage total for Brown as that fourth option. It’s worth a shot if you need to spread out the cash in DFS.

Cairo Santos, K, CHI: $6,900

Yep, a kicker. No team has given up more points to kickers this season than the Commanders. They’ve allowed 12 field goals and 10 extra points over the first four games. Chicago should be able to move the ball between the 20s, but it’s very easy to picture drives stalling out thanks in large part to sacks, and that could lead to some longer field-goal chances for Santos.

If you can use Santos as a flex play, it does make some sense. We promise we’ll do our best to not say nice things about kickers through the rest of the year.

Prediction

At some point, the Bears will win. It should have been Sunday against Denver except for late gaffes from Fields, the defense and the offensive line. Chicago could beat a mediocre Washington team that has just as many questions as it does answers, if not more. I’m just not willing to bet on it. Not yet anyway.  

Commanders 34, Bears 24

Week 5 is the season’s first bye week, which means our DFS options are slightly limited by the absence of Browns, Buccaneers, Seahawks and Chargers players. But we don’t need them to build successful stacks -- especially not the Browns. The theory behind stacking players is that by putting correlated players into your lineup, you only need one event to ‘hit’ to be a success.

It’s like double dipping in the guacamole at your favorite Mexican restaurant -- except significantly less gross. Let’s double dip together as we go through three of the best Week 5 stacks.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Arizona Cardinals
  • Joshua Dobbs ($5200 DraftKings, $6600 FanDuel)
  • Zach Ertz ($3500 DraftKings, $5100 FanDuel)

Since Week 2, Dobbs has averaged over one passing TD per game, throwing no interceptions and finishing as a top-8 fantasy QB twice. The matchup against the Bengals isn’t frightening either, as far as opposing defenses go. While the Cardinals were believed to be tanking, they clearly want to win. I’m not sure I’ve ever watched a scrappier football team than these Cardinals, and I expect them to find a way to stay in this against a hobbled Bengals team.

More on the NFL:

Zach Ertz has seen double-digit targets in half of the games so far this season and 8-plus in three of four. He’s yet to find the end zone, but that could be this weekend. You’re not sacrificing upside with this stack, but you are saving a ton of money to use elsewhere.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Minnesota Vikings
  • Patrick Mahomes ($8200 DraftKings, $9200 FanDuel)
  • Travis Kelce ($7600 DraftKings, $8789 FanDuel)
  • Isiah Pacheco ($5700 DraftKings, $6600 FanDuel)

Yeah, I know. Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce is pretty freaking basic, but they are, uh, really good. The Chiefs will wallop the Minnesota Vikings. The total is 52.5, the highest of any Week 5 game.

You’re spending big here, but we’re expecting big points. I like adding Pacheco after a big Week 4. The Chiefs will roll, which could mean another big day for Pacheco. If you really feel like spending all your money up top, add Justin Jefferson on the other side of this game.

New York Jets @ Denver Broncos
  • Zach Wilson ($4900 DraftKings, $6700 FanDuel)
  • Garrett Wilson ($6000 DraftKings, $7400 FanDuel)

I saved this one for last, so you wouldn’t stop reading after seeing Zach Wilson’s name. I know it seems like chasing points after the best game of his career, but there is more at play here.

Let’s build context around the situation. Wilson gets drafted second overall and then fails spectacularly over his first two seasons, to the point that he gets benched for Mike White. The Jets all but give up on him as a starter by trading for Aaron Rodgers. The entire offseason is spent building an offense for Rodgers, not for Zach Wilson. Then BAM, Week 1 he’s thrown into action unprepared, and it showed.

My point is that what we saw could be the best game Zach Wilson plays in his career OR we could be seeing a third-year QB taking a step forward after a couple of unexpected starts. Add to that a Broncos defense that has been porous and you’ve got a hot and very affordable stack in the Wilsons of New York in Week 5.

Here are our 9-cat Fantasy NBA Rankings for the 2023-24 season. Nine categories take into consideration points, rebounds, assists, steals, blocks, 3-pointers, field goal percentage, free throw percentage and turnovers. These rankings can also be loosely used for other scoring systems.

More on the NBA:

In a points league, poor free throw shooters, like Giannis Antetokounmpo, and high turnover players (most of the high-volume scorers) can be given a boost as those categories don't really matter in that format. And if you play in an 8-cat league, eliminating the turnovers also gives a little more value to those high-volume scorers.

Good luck in your drafts!

Top 200 Rankings Below:
RankingPlayerPosition
1Nikola JokicC
2Joel EmbiidC
3Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPG/SG
4Tyrese HaliburtonPG/SG
5Luka DoncicPG/SG
6Jayson TatumSF
7Stephen CurryPG
8Damian LillardPG
9LaMelo BallPG
10Giannis AntetokounmpoPF
11Kevin DurantSF
12Anthony EdwardsSG
13Jaren JacksonPF/C
14Domantas SabonisC
15Trae YoungPG/SG
16Karl-Anthony TownsPF/C
17Bam AdebayoC
18Anthony DavisPF/C
19Devin BookerPG/SG
20Donovan MitchellSG
21Kyrie IrvingPG/SG
22James HardenSG
23Mikal BridgesSG/SF
24Cade CunninghamPG
25Lauri MarkkanenPF
26Darius GarlandPG
27Jimmy ButlerSG/SF
28Fred VanVleetPG
29LeBron JamesSF/PF
30Victor WembanyamaPF/C
31Dejounte MurraySG
32De'Aaron FoxPG
33Desmond BaneSG/SF
34Myles TurnerPF/C
35Pascal SiakamPF
36Kristaps PorzingisPF/C
37Evan MobleyPF/C
38Jalen BrunsonPG
39Chet HolmgrenC
40Nikola VucevicC
41Jrue HolidayPG
42Jaylen BrownSG
43Jamal MurrayPG
44Zach LaVineSG
45Paul GeorgeSG/SF
46Kawhi LeonardSF/PF
47Jordan PooleSG
48DeMar DeRozanSG
49Walker KesslerC
50Nicolas ClaxtonC
51OG AnunobySF
52Julius RandlePF
53Alperen SengunC
54Josh GiddeyPG/SG
55Jalen WilliamsSG
56Anfernee SimonsPG/SG
57Zion WilliamsonPF
58Scottie BarnesPG/SF
59Brandon IngramSG/SF
60Bradley BealSG
61Franz WagnerSF
62Jarrett AllenC
63Tyrese MaxeyPG/SG
64Paolo BancheroPF
65Deandre AytonC
66Cameron JohnsonSF
68Brook LopezC
69Rudy GobertC
70Ja MorantPG
71Khris MiddletonSF
72Tyler HerroPG/SG
73CJ McCollumSG
74Andrew WigginsSG/SF
75Devin VassellSG
76Mark WilliamsC
77Tyus JonesPG
78Jakob PoeltlC
79Kyle KuzmaPF
80Terry RozierSG
81Markelle FultzPG
82Scoot HendersonPG/SG
83Wendell CarterPF/C
84Jalen GreenSG
85Marcus SmartPG/SG
86Klay ThompsonSG/SF
87Michael PorterSF
88Buddy HieldSG
89Austin ReavesSG/SF
90Tre JonesPG
91Draymond GreenPF
92Onyeka OkongwuC
93Daniel GaffordPF/C
94John CollinsPF
95Chris PaulPG
96Robert WilliamsC
97Jabari SmithPF
98Tobias HarrisPF
99Derrick WhitePG/SG
100Jerami GrantPF
101Trey MurphySF
102Immanuel QuickleyPG/SG
103Jusuf NurkicC
104Zach CollinsC
105Bruce BrownSG/SF
106Jordan ClarksonSG
107Shaedon SharpeSG
108De'Anthony MeltonPG/SG
109Dennis SchroderPG/SG
110Aaron GordonPF
111Amen ThompsonPG/SG
112Jalen DurenPF/C
113D'Angelo RussellPG/SG
114Clint CapelaC
115Spencer DinwiddiePG
116Jonas ValanciunasC
117Keegan MurrayPF
118Mitchell RobinsonC
119Ben SimmonsPG/PF
120Josh HartSG
121Jaden McDanielsPF
122Gary TrentSG
123Jaden IveySG
124P.J. WashingtonPF/C
125Ivica ZubacC
126Keldon JohnsonSF
127Russell WestbrookPG/SG
128Mike ConleyPG
129Kevin HuerterSG
130Bojan BogdanovicSG
131Herbert JonesSG
132Bobby PortisPF/C
133Kyle AndersonSF
134Deni AvdijaSF
135Ausar ThompsonSF
136Tari EasonSG
137Paul ReedPF
138Bennedict MathurinSG
139Patrick WilliamsSF
140Malcolm BrogdonPG/SG
141Christian WoodPF/C
142Al HorfordPF/C
143Obi ToppinPF/C
144Harrison BarnesPF
145Saddiq BeySF
146Jeremy SochanSF
147Brandon MillerSF
148RJ BarrettSF
149Taylor HendricksPF
150Cameron PaynePG/SG
151Steven AdamsC
152Collin SextonSG
153Bol BolC
154Joe InglesSF
155Kelly OlynykPF/C
156Kentavious Caldwell-PopeSG
157Kevon LooneyPF/C
158AJ GriffinSF
159David RoddySG/SF
160Cason WallaceSG
161Quentin GrimesSF
162Bogdan BogdanovicSF
163Nick RichardsPF
164Georges NiangSF
165Jaylin WilliamsPF
166Kelly Oubre Jr.SF
167Moritz WagnerPF
168T.J. McConnellPG
169Terance MannSG
170Isaiah StewartPF/C
171Jalen JohnsonPF
172Rui HachimuraPF
173Dillon BrooksSG/SF
174Delon WrightSG
175Matisse ThybulleSG
176Naz ReidPF/C
177Christian BraunSG
178Nikola JovicPF
179Donte DiVincenzoSG
180James WisemanC
181Josh RichardsonSG
182Norman PowellSF
183Jarace WalkerSF
184Andrew NembhardSG
185Alex CarusoSG
186Jarred VanderbiltPF
187Grant WilliamsPF
188Trayce Jackson-DavisPF
189Mason PlumleeC
190Jevon CarterPG
191Peyton WatsonSG
192Cole AnthonyPG
193Nicolas BatumSF
194Caris LeVertSF
195Dereck LivelyC
196Gordon HaywardSF
197Jaxson HayesPF
198Tim HardawaySG
199Andre DrummondC
200Max StrusSG/SF

Raise your hand if you knew both Alvin Kamara and Jake Ferguson were going to be top 10 plays at their respective positions in fantasy in Week 4.

Now, raise your other hand if you knew Joe Burrow, Joshua Palmer, Tank Dell, and Roschon Johnson were going to combine for 21.8 PPR points -- COMBINED In Week 4?! Not my best advice.

All jokes aside, if you read my Week 4 ‘Bargain Bin’ column, chances are you probably started at least one of the six aforementioned players. Looking to get ahead of the game for Week 5 before your friends do? Never fear, Steezy A is here. (all salaries are courtesy of DraftKings).

QB: Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams ($5,600, QB18 at cost)

Falling outside of the top 15 in salary, yet ownership percentage at (6%) is within the top 7 at his position? Didn’t they always say great minds think alike?

While it isn’t official whether or not Cooper Kupp returns to action in Week 5, what IS official is that the LA Rams are 13th in the NFL in scoring at 24.5 entering Week 5. That has been without the stud wideout.

Want to know what else is official? The Philadelphia Eagles have been one of the friendliest defenses to opposing quarterbacks in fantasy land this season.  Mac Jones, Kirk Cousins, and Sam Howell can all attest.

Don’t believe me? I guess that explains why Philadelphia is ranked 27th against the pass.

Enter Matthew Stafford, who's thrown for 300 or more yards in three out of his four games played this season so far. The touchdowns haven’t been there, but Kupp’s imminent return should change the calculus there sooner rather than later.

One of two matchups on the Week 5 slate with a total north of 50 (50.5), you can expect a lot of points, yards, and fantasy points from Rams and Eagles players alike.

But especially Stafford. Start Stafford in Week 5.

RB: Brian Robinson Jr., Washington Commanders ($5,600, RB23 at cost)

I know, I know - Brian Robinson Jr plays tomorrow so technically I don’t have a RB for you guys to ‘bargain’ hunt for Sunday’s slate of games, but Robinson’s price tag is intriguing enough to where I’d highly suggest curating lineups for ‘Thursday Night Football’ just because of him.

That said, Robinson has an incredible matchup on deck against the Chicago Bears, who have allowed RBs to feast since the season began. That list of players includes Aaron Jones (26.7 PPR points in Week 1), Rachaad White (21.3 PPR points in Week 2), 28.5 PPR points to Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Isiah Pacheco in Week 3, and 19.4 points to Jaleel McLaughlin in Week 4. 

‘Thursday Night Football’ matchups usually favor the home team and especially more so if they’re able to run the football. As -6-point favorites, game script could also be in Robinson’s favor if things play out how they’re supposed to on ‘TNF’. 

As the 8th-ranked RB (on the season so far) in standard PPR scoring formats, Robinson’s floor and ceiling in Week 5 looks like that of a promising RB2.

WR: Adam Thielen, Carolina Panthers ($5,100, WR34 at cost)

Averaging 22.36 points per game in his last three games, Adam Thielen is playing like a man possessed.

WR10 on the season entering Week 5, Thielen has had 8 or more targets and 7 or more receptions in every game since Week 1.

Clearly having found his groove with a young Panthers team after a less-than-ideal Week 1 (2 receptions for 12 yards), the 33-year-old veteran WR belongs in all lineups as a WR3/flex option at the very least.

One of two winless teams remaining, the Panthers are +9-point underdogs (DraftKings) entering Week 5’s showdown with the Lions.

Given that the Panthers are likely to find themselves playing catchup against a much superior team, the stage is set for Thielen to continue his impressive season.

It also doesn’t hurt that Thielen has a TON of experience playing against the Lions, dating back to his Viking days (in two games against the Lions last season, Thielen amassed 13 receptions, 126 receiving yards, and two touchdowns).

WR: Terry McLaurin, Washington Commanders ($5,400, WR29 at cost)

Another Commander, another ‘TNF’ player, and one less receiver to use in your Sunday lineups if you like to bargain shop.

Am I sorry? Not really, but if you adhere to what I was saying earlier about constructing a Thursday night lineup, that should more than make up for it.

Now, on to the man they call ‘Scary Terry: coming off a season-best performance against the Philadelphia Eagles last week in which he totaled 8 receptions for 86 yards McLaurin seems to be 100% behind the turf toe injury that hampered him in the preseason and carried into the beginning of the regular season.

That said, Terry is due for his best statistical performance of the season yet.

Vulnerable would be too generous a word to describe the Chicago Bears secondary, who sit at 29th in the NFL in passing yards allowed (on average) at 267.8 entering Week 5.

I expect Terry to eclipse 100+ receiving yards and perform more in line of that of a WR2 this week.

TE: Zach Ertz, Arizona Cardinals ($3,500, TE16 at cost)

To preface, the Arizona Cardinals are 1-3 on the season entering Week 5. In those losses, Zach Ertz has averaged 9.3 targets and about 43.3 receiving yards per game. In Arizona’s lone victory of the season, Ertz had season-lows across the board (2 targets, 2 receptions, and 6 receiving yards).

As 3-point underdogs at home to the ailing Cincinnati Bengals, the good news (for Ertz owners) is that the Cardinals are expected to lose. As I outlined for you above, Ertz does more statistically when AZ loses and while that has a lot to do with gameplan and game flow, I expect both to be in favor of Ertz as far as his fantasy value in Week 5.

Second on the team in targets with 30 (behind Hollywood Brown’s 32) on the season so far, Ertz’ chemistry with QB Joshua Dobbs has been evident and that should continue against the Bengals.

FLEX: Jaleel McLaughlin, Denver Broncos ($5,000, RB35 at cost)

Believe me when I say this, but I was on the Puka Nacua hype train before it truly took off, and the reason I say this is because he was the first ‘Bonus/Flex’ play I used when I started writing this bargain bin column and I just get this feeling about McLaughlin like he’s the next big thing to come out of the waiver wire.

While fellow running back Javonte Williams isn’t expected to miss much if ‘any’ time following a hip flexor injury, I’m not going to let Williams’ status damper my thoughts on McLaughlin, who finished as the RB10 in fantasy this past week (standard PPR scoring formats).

Having looked like the Broncos’ most explosive back on the season, McLaughlin was receiving hype all throughout training camp and now we’re all starting to see why.

Despite playing less than Samaje Perine in Week 4, Jaleel compiled a far more impressive stat line, racking up 7 rushes for 72 rushing yards and contributing in the pass game as well with 3 catches for 32 yards and a receiving touchdown.

Yes, the Broncos backfield is getting messy by the week with the emergence of yet another option in McLaughlin, but he’s certainly made the most of his opportunity and you know what it is by now with these rookie running backs.

Grab McLaughlin while you can and if you’re looking for the dart throw of dart throws, look no further than the Youngstown State product. 

Tight End Thoughts:

Last week was a MASSIVE win at the Tight End position, after the late week pivot to Mark Andrews as TE1. Coming into the Week, Andrews was TE5 due to a notoriously difficult matchup with Cleveland. But sometimes as the week goes, things just don’t make sense/compute in your head and you have to lean on what you know and what you’ve seen. What we have seen, is Lamar Jackson finding his favorite target when he needs him and when he wants him. Lamar had 2 rushing touchdowns in the first half, and just 8 pass attempts before the 2-minute warning of the 2nd quarter. He then reeled off 6 in the final 2 minutes, with an Andrews touchdown just before halftime, to give Baltimore a 21-3 lead.

Keep a keen eye on and be careful starting Chig Okonkwo, Dallas Goedert, Logan Thomas and Dawson Knox. Instead, trust Noah Fant, AGAIN, who is cheap and attainable EVERYWHERE. And finally, Andrew Ogletree who Indianapolis is telling us, matters. Ogletree missed Week 2, but over the last two week shis snap share went from 0 to 33 and finally 44% in Week 4, while Mo Alie-Cox dropped down to 27%. Ogletree is 6’5, 261lbs with a 72nd percentile speed and burst score.

RankChangeNameTeamWeek 5
1 Mark AndrewsBAL@PIT
2 Travis KelceKC@MIN
32Sam LaPortaDETCAR
4 T.J. HockensonMINKC
5 Evan EngramJAX@BUF
6 George KittleSFDAL
7 Darren WallerNYG@MIA
8 Tyler HigbeeLARPHI
9 Hunter HenryNENO
10 Hayden HurstCAR@DET
11 Zach ErtzARICIN
12 Luke MusgraveGB@LV
13-2Drew OgletreeINDTEN
14 Darnell WashingtonPITBAL
15 Jake FergusonDAL@SF
16-2Kyle PittsATLHOU
17 Dalton SchultzHOU@ATL
18 Dallas GoedertPHI@LAR
19 Jonnu SmithATLHOU
20 Dalton KincaidBUFJAX
21 Durham SmytheMIANYG
22 Chig OkonkwoTEN@IND
23 Logan ThomasWSHCHI
249Jimmy GrahamNO@NE
25 Noah GrayKC@MIN
26 Irv SmithCIN@ARI
27 Cole KmetCHI@WSH
28 Tyler ConklinNYJ@DEN
29 Kylen GransonINDTEN
30 Mo Alie-CoxINDTEN
31 Dawson KnoxBUFJAX
32 Brevin JordanHOU@ATL
33 Luke FarrellJAX@BUF
34 C.J. UzomahNYJ@DEN
35 Nate AdkinsDENNYJ
36 Drew HudsonCIN@ARI
37 Chris ManhertzDENNYJ
38 Robert TonyanCHI@WSH
39 Josiah DeguaraGB@LV
40 Josh OliverMINKC
41 Josh WhyleTEN@IND
42 Jeremy RuckertNYJ@DEN
43 Tucker KraftGB@LV
44 Mitchell WilcoxCIN@ARI
45 Trey McBrideARICIN
46 Mike GesickiNENO
47 Taysom HillNO@NE
48 Austin HooperLVGB
49 John BatesWSHCHI
50 Tommy TrembleCAR@DET
Kicker Rankings:
RankNameTEAMWeek 5
1Jake ElliottPHI@LAR
2Harrison ButkerKC@MIN
3Daniel CarlsonLVGB
4Brandon AubreyDAL@SF
5Ka'imi FairbairnHOU@ATL
6Evan McPhersonCIN@ARI
7Riley PattersonDETCAR
8Nick FolkTEN@IND
9Justin TuckerBAL@PIT
10Tyler BassBUFJAX
11Matt GayINDTEN
12Greg JosephMINKC
13Brandon McManusJAX@BUF
14Younghoe KooATLHOU
15Brett MaherLARPHI
Defense rankings:
RankTeamWeek 5
1WSHCHI
2BAL@PIT
3HOU@ATL
4DETCAR
5PHI@LAR
6NYJ@DEN
7NO@NE
8DAL@SF
8SFDAL
9KC@MIN
10TEN@IND
11BUFJAX
12CIN@ARI
13NENO
14DENNYJ

Wide Receiver Thoughts (Rankings Below)

My favorite game in Week 5 will be on Monday night, when the Green Bay Packers play in Las Vegas against Davante Adams and the Raiders. Adams is currently tied for third in the NFL with 33 receptions, including 3 touchdowns. Romeo Doubs has three top-20 finishes so far, but Christian Watson returned from injury in Week 4, playing just 46% of snaps.

One can expect Watson’s presence to jump into the 80% snap area, causing the Raiders to focus on two outside stretch receivers, along with inside gadget guy Jayden Reed. Between the Raiders and Packers, I have five MNF receivers ranked in the Top 45.

Adam Thielen returned a favor in Week 3, finishing as WR20 once again, his third consecutive inside the Top 24. Wan’Dale Robinson is a guy we are continuing to watch and key on in New York. In Week 3 he finished with 5 targets on a 22% snap share, and on Monday Night Football his snap share climbed to 64% as well as a “double down” with 6 targets, with 5 receptions and 40 yards.

Stay ahead of your league-mates and keep adding Wan’Dale as a depth piece. His snap share has risen from 0 to 22 and 64, while teammate Parris Campbell has dropped from 66 to 42 and down to 31% in Week 4.

Sleepers to target in Week 5 consist of Jerry Jeudy who has yet to crest the top 30 in any week, despite seeing 5+ targets in each of his first 3 games. Down the line is 38, Josh Reynolds, who will be overshadowed by the newsworthy return of Jameson Williams, who has never crested a 25% snap share and has one career catch.

Last but not least, it’s finally, FINALLY a Rondale Moore week.

Wide Receiver Rankings for Week 5:
RankCHANGENameTeamWeek 5
1 Tyreek HillMIANYG
2 Justin JeffersonMINKC
3 Davante AdamsLVGB
4 Ja'Marr ChaseCIN@ARI
5 CeeDee LambDAL@SF
61Stefon DiggsBUFJAX
7-2Puka NacuaLARPHI
8-1Devonta SmithPHI@LAR
9 D.J. MooreCHI@WSH
10 A.J. BrownPHI@LAR
11 Tank DellHOU@ATL
12-5Chris OlaveNO@NE
13 Marquise BrownARICIN
14 Adam ThielenCAR@DET
15 Jerry JeudyDENNYJ
16 Christian WatsonGB@LV
17 Nico CollinsHOU@ATL
18 Calvin RidleyJAX@BUF
19NEWCooper KuppLARPHI
20 Deebo SamuelSFDAL
21 Garrett WilsonNYJ@DEN
22 Jaylen WaddleMIANYG
23 George PickensPITBAL
24 Zay FlowersBAL@PIT
25 Christian KirkJAX@BUF
26 Michael PittmanINDTEN
27 DeAndre HopkinsTEN@IND
28 Romeo DoubsGB@LV
29 Tutu AtwellLARPHI
30 Brandon AiyukSFDAL
31 Terry McLaurinWSHCHI
32 Gabriel DavisBUFJAX
33 Drake LondonATLHOU
34 Tyler BoydCIN@ARI
35 Alec PierceINDTEN
36 Wan'Dale RobinsonNYG@MIA
37 Terrace MarshallCAR@DET
38 Josh ReynoldsDETCAR
39 Courtland SuttonDENNYJ
40 Rondale MooreARICIN
41 Jakobi MeyersLVGB
42 Brandin CooksDAL@SF
43 Marvin MimsDENNYJ
44 Curtis SamuelWSHCHI
45 Jayden ReedGB@LV
46 Rashee RiceKC@MIN
47 Michael ThomasNO@NE
48 Robert WoodsHOU@ATL
49 Michael WilsonARICIN
50 DeMario DouglasNENO
51 Jordan AddisonMINKC
52 Allen LazardNYJ@DEN
53 Calvin AustinPITBAL
54 Nelson AgholorBAL@PIT
55 DeVante ParkerNENO
56 Marquez Valdes-ScantlingKC@MIN
57 Nick Westbrook-IkhineTEN@IND
58 Braxton BerriosMIANYG
59 Skyy MooreKC@MIN
60 Andrei IosivasCIN@ARI
61 John MetchieHOU@ATL
62 Darnell MooneyCHI@WSH
63 Josh DownsINDTEN
64 D.J. CharkCAR@DET
65 Jahan DotsonWSHCHI
66 Michael GallupDAL@SF
67 K.J. OsbornMINKC
68 Justin WatsonKC@MIN
69 Brandon JohnsonDENNYJ
70 Samori ToureGB@LV
71 Rashid ShaheedNO@NE
729Jameson WilliamsDETCAR
73 Equanimeous St. BrownCHI@WSH
74 Darius SlaytonNYG@MIA
75 Kalif RaymondDETCAR
76 Kendrick BourneNENO
77 Jalen TolbertDAL@SF
78 Chris MooreTEN@IND
79 Kadarius ToneyKC@MIN
80 Jalin HyattNYG@MIA
81 Dyami BrownWSHCHI
82 Van JeffersonLARPHI
83 Allen RobinsonPITBAL
84 Mack HollinsATLHOU
85 KaVontae TurpinDAL@SF
86 Hunter RenfrowLVGB
87 Olamide ZaccheausPHI@LAR
88 Khadarel HodgeATLHOU
89 Laviska ShenaultCAR@DET
90 Trent SherfieldBUFJAX
91 Ray-Ray McCloudSFDAL
92 Randall CobbNYJ@DEN
93 Trenton IrwinCIN@ARI
94 Zach PascalARICIN
95 Deonte HartyBUFJAX
96 Devin DuvernayBAL@PIT
97 Tyler ScottCHI@WSH
98 Cedrick WilsonMIANYG
99 Juju Smith-SchusterNENO
100 Ronnie BellSFDAL


Running Back Thoughts:

De'Von 'Double-Down' Achane, was out in full force during Week 4 with another dynamic performance and Top-5 fantasy finish, this time on just 11 touches. He totaled 233 yards and 4 touchdowns on 22 touches in Week 3, in what was looked at as a once in a lifetime game. He “doubled down” in Week 4 with 120 total yards and 2 touchdowns on just 11 touches.

A literal repeat performance on a per-touch basis. Going forward, it is going to be more and more difficult for Mike McDaniel and company to contain this freak of an athlete, but at just 185 pounds, they will need to utilize both Achane and Raheem Mostert to keep this efficiency flowing. Achane is a MUST-START and Top-10 option every week until further notice.

More on the NFL:

Only one running back have finished with 19.9+ fantasy points in both Week 1, 2, 3 and 4 -- Christian McCaffrey.

Alvin Kamara returned from suspension, and made up for missed time, pulling in a whopping 13 receptions on 13 targets. That places him 9th among running backs in receptions, just 6 behind the leader, Bijan Robinson. We hammered Kamara in the rankings last week, he finished exactly where we projected -- 9th.

This week the assumed return of Jonathan Taylor is held in high regard with how impressive Zack Moss has played in 2023. However, when comparing Moss’s stats to that of Taylors first 3 games in 2022, they are eerily similar.

Taylor had 5 less carries, but 6 more yards and 2 more receptions in the same span. The difference of course is this Colts offensive line has been healthy and returned to 2021 form. Taylor is a fringe RB1 this week, coming in at RB16 if he practices on Thursday and Friday.

RankCHANGENameTeamWeek 5
1 Christian McCaffreySFDAL
2 Bijan RobinsonATLHOU
3 Tony PollardDAL@SF
4 Josh JacobsLVGB
5 Travis EtienneJAX@BUF
6 Devon AchaneMIANYG
71Breece HallNYJ@DEN
8-1Kyren WilliamsLARPHI
93David MontgomeryDETCAR
10 Alvin KamaraNO@NE
11 Isiah PachecoKC@MIN
125Jonathan TaylorHOU@ATL
13 D'Andre SwiftPHI@LAR
14 Derrick HenryTEN@IND
15 James CookBUFJAX
16 James ConnerARICIN
17 Brian RobinsonWSHCHI
18 Joe MixonCIN@ARI
19-2Aaron JonesGB@LV
20 Jaleel McLaughlinDENNYJ
21 Alexander MattisonMINKC
22 Raheem MostertMIANYG
23 Miles SandersCAR@DET
24 Rhamondre StevensonNENO
25 Jaylen WarrenPITBAL
26 Dameon PierceHOU@ATL
27 Tyjae SpearsTEN@IND
28 Khalil HerbertCHI@WSH
2931Matt BreidaNYG@MIA
30 Cam AkersMINKC
31 Najee HarrisPITBAL
32 Latavius MurrayBUFJAX
33 Kenneth GainwellPHI@LAR
34 Zack MossINDTEN
35 Roschon JohnsonCHI@WSH
36 Chuba HubbardCAR@DET
37 Samaje PerineDENNYJ
38 Melvin GordonBAL@PIT
39 Gus EdwardsBAL@PIT
408Emari DemercadoARICIN
41 Tyler AllgeierATLHOU
42 Ezekiel ElliottNENO
43 Rico DowdleDAL@SF
44 Justice HillBAL@PIT
45 Clyde Edwards-HelaireKC@MIN
46 Devin SingletaryHOU@ATL
47 Jerick McKinnonKC@MIN
48 Damien HarrisBUFJAX
49 Tank BigsbyJAX@BUF
50 A.J. DillonGB@LV
51 Gary BrightwellNYG@MIA
52 Dalvin CookNYJ@DEN
53 Antonio GibsonWSHCHI
54 Ty ChandlerMINKC
55 Michael CarterNYJ@DEN
56 Kendre MillerNO@NE
57 Ronnie RiversLARPHI
58 Deuce VaughnDAL@SF
59 Mike BooneHOU@ATL
60 Ameer AbdullahLVGB
61 Zamir WhiteLVGB
62 Trayveon WilliamsCIN@ARI
63 Chase BrownCIN@ARI
64 Jordan MasonSFDAL
65 Chris BrooksMIANYG
66 Trey SermonINDTEN