October 26, 2023
NFL

Bargain Bin: Going Economy with Carr

Steezy's Bargain Bin for Week 8
Maria Lysaker | 2023 Oct 15 USA TODAY NETWORK
Steezy A’s Week 8 DFS Bargain Bin

Apparently, only Chiefs WR Rashee Rice got the memo after I listed him as one of my ‘bargain bin’ guys last week; as for the others?

Let’s not speak on that.

Thankfully, it’s a new week - which means a new slate of players that can be had at cheaper than usual prices — and no bye weeks!

Week 8, here we go baby (all salaries courtesy of FanDuel).

QB: Derek Carr, New Orleans Saints ($6,600, QB26 at cost)

Coming off two straight weeks in which he’s attempted 50+ passes and passed for over 300+ yards in each of those games, Derek Carr has had a lot on his plate.

From a fantasy perspective, that has also coincided with his two best performances to date, scoring 17+ points in back-to-back weeks (standard PPR scoring leagues).

While the stat-stuffing hasn’t helped the Saints pick up dubs in the last two weeks, Carr’s Week 8 matchup is salivating on paper.

Enter the Indianapolis Colts, who have given up a WHOPPING 75 points combined in the last two weeks. To add injury to insult, starting rookie CB Juju Brents is expected to miss over a week due to a quadriceps injury he sustained last week, rendering an already suspect defense that much more vulnerable.

While the status of WR Chris Olave’s availability is unknown at this juncture, Carr will still have Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara to work with, not to mention Tayson Hill - who has 11 receptions for 99 receiving yards in the last two weeks (on 13 targets).

Given the plethora of weapons at his disposal, start Carr with confidence in Week 8.

RB: Gus Edwards, Baltimore Ravens ($6,600, RB24 at cost)

It’s not every week that Gus Edwards will total 80 receiving yards for both fantasy owners and the Baltimore Ravens (albeit on one catch against Detroit last week), but it’s also not every week that Edwards will go up against the Arizona Cardinals defense - hence why he’s my bargain of bargains at the running back position.

On the season, the Cardinals are allowing the 4th-most fantasy points to opposing RB’s, and if that wasn’t enough to get you hyped up about starting Edwards in fantasy, a positive game script should be.

As 8-point favorites (at the time of this writing), Edwards should also receive plenty of opportunities to score, as he’s also Baltimore’s preferred goal-line back (not including Lamar Jackson).

Here’s a fun stat for you: (shoutout to Lawrence Jackson of NBC Sports for this one)

The Cardinals have allowed at least 100 rushing yards to the opposing team’s lead back in four of their last five games.

If all goes according to plan and Baltimore is beating the same brakes off the Cardinals as they did the Lions last week, Edwards should FEAST in Week 8.

WR: Michael Thomas, New Orleans Saints ($6,000, WR42 at cost)

Another bargain play, another New Orleans Saint sighting (I also thought long and hard about Taysom Hill, so any Saints fan reading this - you’re welcome).

Needless to say, if you’re looking for a sneaky snack (particularly in DFS) this week, look no further than the tandem of Derek Carr and not Chris Olave, but Michael Thomas.

A true model of consistency, Thomas has yet to score below 9.3 fantasy points in any game this season, and we’re already almost eight weeks in.

Like I mentioned above with Derek Carr, the Colts defense is RIPE for strong performances from Saints skill position players, as they have been giving up points GALORE in the last two weeks.

If the Colts two-headed monster at RB in Jonathan Taylor and Zack Moss can keep the Saints defense on their heels, we could have an under-the-radar shootout on our hands in Week 8 between these two teams (ala Cleveland and Indiana last week)

As I always say, chase those players, chase those matchups, and chase those points because everyone eats!

WR: Calvin Ridley, Jacksonville Jaguars ($6,800, WR36 at cost)

How the mighty have fallen…. (cue the sad war music)

Just kidding.

Can we all cut Calvin Ridley some slack??? I get it, WR37 on the season and an average of 10.97 points per game simply is not going to cut it, especially for those that drafted Ridley to be their fantasy squad’s WR1.

I spoke to Jaguars Beat Reporter (Sports Illustrated) John Shipley recently and he essentially attributed Ridley’s struggles to a few things:

  • Rust
  • Jacksonville has had to compensate for a questionable offensive line in pass protection with quicker throws (one of the reasons why Christian Kirk is feasting) 
  • A plethora of options in Jacksonville’s offense alongside of Ridley

(among other things)

Shipley also told me that he expects Ridley to start turning it up for the Jaguars come playoff time, which doesn’t do fantasy owners any favors I know. But if he’s going to pop off BEFORE the NFL postseason, it’ll be in Week 8 against the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Yes, they deserve some credit for holding Cooper Kupp to 2 receptions and 29 yards last week, but Puka Nacua went NUCLEAR with 8 receptions for 154 yards (on 12 targets).

The Steelers have also had a tendency to give up big plays and are allowing the third-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers.

If you’ve been patient with Ridley, now’s the time to unleash him.

TE: Gerald Everett, Los Angeles Chargers ($5,200, TE16 at cost)

Quietly becoming one of Justin Herbert’s favorite targets in the red zone, Gerald Everett has back-to-back weeks having scored a TD.

Against a team in the Bears (who are giving up the 12th-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends), Everett should be able to produce for the Chargers, who are DESPERATE for a win (they’ve lost three of their last five games).

Given the shallow nature of the tight end position, Everett might not be the sexiest option, but give me the starting tight end for a high-octane offense vs a young defense any week.

FLEX: Rhamondre Stevenson, New England Patriots ($6,400, RB28 at cost)

After a month of little-to-no-use in the passing game, Rhamondre Stevenson has back-to-back weeks with 5+ receptions and 6+ targets.

When he’s getting the ball, that usually means good things for the Patriots and their offense.

Given that his Patriots are the biggest underdogs of the Week 8 slate (according to DraftKings betting odds) at (+9.5), we might find the Patriots passing the ball a lot more than we’re accustomed to if they’re going to keep up with the Dolphins and their high-octane passing attack.

Sure, Ezekiel Elliot will continue to be sprinkled into the game plan as the team’s goal-line back, but just how often will the Patriots find themselves in that position?

You’re better off banking on the guy who's the primary pass-catcher in a matchup that could get out of hand in a jiffy in Stevenson. 

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Weather Report:

There are only three games on the slate today and none should be impacted by precipitation.

Injury Report:

Jorge Soler - Hip - He left Tuesday’s contest against the Rays with right hip tightness. He is considered day-to-day and could be ready to go against the Nationals.

Lane Thomas - Back - He was lifted prior to the seventh inning due to back soreness. It doesn’t sound serious but there is a chance he sits out Thursday.

Mitch Haniger - Rest - Haniger returned from the injured list on Tuesday and sat out against a righty but the team said it was only due to rest. He should be ready to go on Thursday.

Starting Pitchers (DK-FD)

Spencer Strider: 12,500-12,000

Lance Lynn: 8,800-9,500

Braxton Garrett: 8,200-8,700

Pedro Avila: 6,300-6,700

Joan Adon: 5,400-6,400

Sean Manaea: 5,000-7,300

Spencer Strider is the highest-priced pitcher for the slate, which shouldn’t be surprising. He easily leads the slate with a 2.75 SIERA, 1.06 WHIP, and 38 percent strikeout rate. His 1.06 HR/9 is the highest of his career, without taking the two game appearance in the majors late in 2021 into account. His 60 percent HR/Barrel rate is above league average, which indicates that he could be getting a bit unlucky with the long ball. He faces a tough team in the Dodgers which makes the 12K+ price tag a bit steep.

Strider gets to go toe-to-toe with Lance Lynn in the last game in the slate on Tuesday. To say that Lynn has had an up-and-down season is a bit of an understatement. Lynn has a 3.99 SIERA, 1.38 WHIP, and 26 percent strikeout rate on the season but most of the damage was done while he was a member of the Chicago White Sox. Since joining the Dodgers, he has a 4.30 SIERA, 1.06 WHIP, and 21 percent strikeout rate. He faces a very tough task of facing the Braves in Dodgers Stadium. Since both of these pitchers face uphill battles, going cheap on the pitching while loading up on bats, could work tonight.

Braxton Garrett gets to face the Nationals for the second game in a row. Last time out, he allowed three runs over six innings while only picking up three strikeouts. This time around, he will be in the Nationals home ballpark, which has been below league average when it comes to the long ball, especially with the forecast projecting the winds to be blowing into the ballpark.

Batter to Target

Joan Adon is a pitcher that could be easily exploited in this small slate. His 4.44 SIERA is easily the worst of the group ad Nationals Park is a bit hitter-friendly this season. While the Marlins hitters have struggled in the second of the season Jake Burger ($4,100 on DK and $3,000 on FanDuel) could be an option for fantasy managers looking some cheap power.

Stack Attack

Marlins (Braxton Garrett) vs. Nationals:

DK-FD

Lane Thomas: 4,900-3,200

Keibert Ruiz: 4,000-2,600

Joey Meneses: 4,400-2,700

If Lane Thomas is ready to go on Thursday, he is a must add. The 28-year-old is hitting .346/.393/.591 with eight homers and nine stolen bases against southpaws this season. Ruiz and Meneses also have been above league average against left-handed pitching while hitting towards the top of the Nationals lineup.

Giants (Manaea) vs. Padres:

DK-FD

Ha-Seong Kim: 4,900-3,100

Gary Sanchez: 3,800-2,600

Garrett Cooper: 2,900-2,400

Trent Grisham: 2,800-2,500

The Giants haven’t officially named a starter for Thursday’s contest against the Padres but Sean Manaea figures to fill in as the bulk reliever. Ha-Seong Kim has been out of his mind in the second half of the season, while posting a season long line of .329/.413/.579 with eight homers and ten stolen bases against left-handed pitching. Sánchez and Grisham have also hit above league average against lefties and can be add at some really low prices. Cooper has moved up to sixth in the Padres batting order after Jake Cronenworth landed on the injured list with a fractured wrist. If the Padres bats come to life at the top of the order, you could pick up some RBIs at a considerably low price point.

It’s another full slate of games Wednesday, and there are more than a handful of interesting options to gander over. Colorado-Atlanta provides some intriguing value, but a ‘lesser’ game like Kansas City taking on Pittsburgh also offers intrigue.

Here are tonight’s Underdog and Prizepicks plays for Wednesday’s MLB slate.

Bobby Witt Jr. 1.5 Total Bases - Higher (Underdog)

It’d be hard to overstate just how good the Royals' infielder has been in August, as the young star has hit.327/.379/.626 with eight homers while stealing nine bags and driving in 21 runs even for a weak team. On Wednesday, he’ll go up against the Pirates' Andre Jackson; who pitched decently over his last two starts but offers plenty of opportunity with less-than-spectacular stuff. Don’t be surprised if Witt Jr. offers a combo meal with a homer and a steal, and he’s a good bet to reach the over on that 1.5 total.

Nolan Jones : 1.5 Total Bases - Higher (Prizepicks)

Somewhat quietly, Jones has been one of the better rookies in baseball, coming into Wednesday with a slash of .271/.353/.488. He’ll get a chance to place in the friendly confines of Coors Field, and the former Cleveland prospect will also get a chance to face a right-hander who is making his MLB debut in Darius Vines. Jones is hitless in his last three games, and while that makes things a little more nerve-wracking, it also means he’s due for a big game.

Matt Olson: 0.5 RBI - More (Prizepicks)

Olson will be going up against a lefty in Kyle Freeland, and while he is statistically worse against southpaws than he is righties, worse is a subjective term considering he’s posted an .891 OPS with nine homers and 27 RBI over his 125 plate appearances. Add in the fact he’ll be playing in the friendly confines of Coors Field with some elite hitters hitting in front of him, and Olson is as good of a bet for an RBI as any player Wednesday.

Dane Dunning: 4.0 strikeouts - Higher (Underdog)

Dunning has been able to miss bats at much higher rate as of late, with 39 strikeouts over 29.2 innings of work in his five starts thus far in August. The Mets certainly offer a chance for missed bats, and are not exactly in striking distance for a playoff spot. Dunning should be able to hit his mark as long as he can throw enough strikes to do so; something he admittedly struggled with Friday against the Twins.

Brandon Pfaadt : 4.5 Strikeouts - Lower (Underdog)

There’s reason for long-term upside with Pfaadt, as he was one of the best minor-league hurlers in baseball in 2022, and there have been some flashes of brilliance in 2023 despite his ugly 5.91 ERA and 1.36 WHIP over 67 innings during his rookie campaign. Asking him to reach this total is asking him to work deep against the Dodgers, a lineup that is as feared as any in all of baseball. There’s just too much risk on betting overs with Pfaadt against this kind of team.

The Houston Astros have terrorized the Boston Red Sox this week, putting up 19 runs over the last two games, both of which started by two of Boston’s best pitchers, Chris Sale and Brayan Bello.

Sale and Bello kept the games close, giving up three and two earned runs respectively, but the bullpen couldn’t contain Houston’s bats. Jose Altuve hit for the cycle in the first game, and Yordan Álvarez homered in both games, hitting seven for nine over the two nights.

Vlad Jr Could Go Off Wednesday

The Contrarian Edge Optimizer likes the idea of doubling down on the Astros stack -- a lineup that tied a franchise record 66 hits in the last four games -- but there are also alternatives to consider. Specifically, take a look at Toronto and Seattle. Both have excellent matchups today, so let’s take a closer look.

The Blue Jays face off against Patrick Corbin and the Nationals at the Rogers Centre this afternoon. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ($5000) could be poised for a big day. He’s riding a 10-game hitting streak, during which time he's slashing .302/.333/.438 with two home runs.

If you’re looking for some cheaper options to round out your lineup, keep an eye on both Blue Jays catchers. Danny Jansen ($3600) and Alejandro Kirk ($3000) are each available for less than $4000 on Draft Kings and rostering them should allow you a few extra dollars to roster a top tier bat or one of the three best pitchers on today’s card.

Either Santiago Espinal ($2400) or Whit Merrifield ($4400) could offer hits and runs if the Blue Jays put it together. And don’t sleep on George Springer ($4700), who’s been back in the leadoff spot this series and has put together a really nice run with a five-game hitting streak.

No August swoon for Seattle bats

The Mariners bats were momentarily silenced at T-Mobile Park on Tuesday night, but they’ve been red hot this month, leading the team to a 20-6 record in August. They should stack up nicely against Zach Neal, who’s starting for Oakland for the first time since 2016.

The Mariners have been excellent against right-handed pitchers this season, hitting .240/.323/.419 with a team wRC+ of 108 this season. During their hot streak this August, those numbers are even more impressive -- .279/.363/.486 and a wRC+ of 138 against right-handed pitching.

The Optimizer likes Seattle's Teoscar Hernandez ($4500) as one of your outfielders, and you could do worse than supplementing his production with leadoff man JP Crawford ($4300). Third baseman Eugenio Suarez ($4600) offers some nice pop and while you should avoid Julio Rodriguez, who is day-to-day after a late scratch on Tuesday night, Dominic Canzone ($3000) is a very cost-effective option who’s been on a nice run over the last 10 days, hitting .306/.306/.500.

Pitchers to consider

As for pitching, the wind is blowing in at Wrigley Field, and the Brewers' Brandon Woodruff ($10200) has looked every bit like the ace we know he can be since coming back from the injured list. He’s thrown 22.2 innings across four starts with 29 strikeouts, and only the Rangers scored more than two runs against Woodruff since his return.

Another pitcher to consider is the Giants' Logan Webb ($9500), who has gone five or more innings in 18 of 19 starts this season – including a seven-inning start with seven strikeouts against the Reds at Great American Ballpark in July.

Oracle is a much more pitcher-friendly environment, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Webb surpass that strikeout total from July with a free-swinging Reds team that ranks 25th in MLB with a 24.5 percent strikeout rate.

There are 15 MLB games on tap for Tuesday and a ton of opportunities to cash. The Seattle Mariners-Oakland Athletics game is very intriguing on both sides, and the Mariners have been one of the hottest hitting teams in baseball over the last few weeks. Here are tonight’s Underdog and Prizepicks plays for Tuesday’s MLB slate.

Teoscar Hernandez: 1.5 Total Bases - Higher (Underdog)
Hernandez has been excellent against left-handed pitchers and Ken Waldichuk has let up six hits or more in three of his last four starts, and he’s sporting an earned run average over six.

He’s hit the over on one and a half total bases in seven straight games. He’s homered three times in his last three contests. Hernandez is scorching hot hitting the ball in August, and he sits with a .371 batting average this month. Waldichuk has been a weaker pitcher on the road than at home, and tonight’s game is in Seattle.

Ty France: 0.5 Singles - Higher (Underdog)
France has singled in five of his last seven contests, and he hits way better against lefties, hitting .309 against them. France is having one of his better hitting months as he’s batting .284 in August. Waldichuk is more of a groundball pitcher, and France hits over 42 percent when it comes to ground balls. Between the amount of hits Waldichuk has given up lately, his struggles on the road and France having a strong month at the dish, he should be able to get on base this evening.

Ken Waldichuk: 5.5 Hits Allowed - More (Prizepicks)
With Waldichuk giving up at least six hits in a few starts recently, it’s hard to think that he’ll be able to shut down the Mariners who have been the best hitting team by average in the MLB over the last two weeks and third best over the last seven days. Waldichuk has a 7.43 earned run average, and opponents hit .303 against him when he’s starting on the road. Seattle hits .262 against left-handed pitchers which is the 8th highest in the majors.

Jose Altuve: 2.0 Hits+Runs+RBIs - Higher (Underdog)
Altuve has crossed the plate nine times total over his last three games. During that span he hit the ball seven times and produced five RBIs. Altuve hits .335 against right-handed pitchers, and even though Boston Red Sox pitcher Brayan Bello hasn’t given up a ton of runs in his starts recently, he’s allowed six hits or more in five straight starts. Last week in this exact matchup, Bello gave up nine hits against Houston, and since then, Altuve has heated up. Altuve has also been a better hitter on the road than at home, and this game is in Boston.

Manny Machado: 0.5 Singles - Higher (Underdog)
Machado has been reaching base a lot lately. Tonight, he faces St. Louis Cardinals pitcher Zack Thompson who is not only a lefty, but he’s surrendered six hits in both of his last two outings. Machado hits .327 against left-handed pitchers and he’s hit a single in three of his last five games.

Marcus Semien: 0.5 Singles - Higher (Underdog)
Semien hits better against left-handed pitchers than right-handed pitchers. He’s hit singles in four of his last seven games, and the Rangers' bats have woken up a bit in the last week. Semien has a good history against New York Mets pitcher Jose Quintana, hitting the ball six times in 13 at-bats against him. He has the most hits for the Rangers this season.