Carolina Panthers tight end Hayden Hurst (81) breaks away from Atlanta Falcons safety Richie Grant (27) for a touchdown. (Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports)
The golden nugget of my offseason was going to the Carolina Panthers training camp and laying eyes on the soon to be target leader for Bryce Young. Hayden Hurst made his return to Atlanta in Week 1 and did so in true leader fashion, finishing as TE2.
Hurst is no longer a sleeper, he is “the guy”, just as Frank Reich warned us he would be back in August. Although Carolina has the most difficult matchup at tight end in Week 2 -- with New Orleans -- Hurst is still a viable start in fantasy football. He is the top target on a team depleted of true veteran talent.
Week 2 bounce-backs at TE belong to Darren Waller and Gerald Everett. Waller and the Giants were shut out at home against the Dallas Cowboys. In 2022, Waller finished as TE2 while playing the Arizona Cardinals while on the Las Vegas Raiders.
Despite the blowout loss on Sunday night, Waller tied Darius Slayton for the team-lead of five targets.
Every Tuesday, I wake up and react to the shift in line movement after a weekend of NFL football. A line can shift for several reasons, sometimes for better or worse. In this series of articles, we look at three games a week and any associated line movement with them.
In Week 2, here are the three games with line movement that I am targeting.
Seattle Seahawks (+5.5) @ Detroit Lions
I went to this game immediately. Colleagues Sean Green and Ryan Kramer from the Sports Gambling Podcast put me on to a betting trend I have blindly tailed in almost every situation – the ‘Close Your Eyes Special.’
The Close Your Eyes Special is when a team underperforms the spread by 21+ points and is underdog the next week. Four teams underperformed the spread by 21+ points -- the Cincinnati Bengals, the New York Giants, the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Seattle Seahawks. Only the Steelers and the Seahawks are underdogs this week, but let’s focus on the Seahawks.
The Detroit Lions got a three-point line move after Week 1from -2.5 to -5.5. The thought process behind the Close Your Eyes Special is that team that just got destroyed the week before is vastly underrated the next week. During the 2022 season the Close Your Eyes Special went 6-3 ATS with five outright wins.
The Lions had a few lapses in coverage but were fortunate with several drops by the Kansas City Chiefs. Seattle’s offense was dynamic last year, and they added one of the top receivers in the draft in Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Last season, the Seahawks won this game 48-45. Expect Seattle keep it close again.
Green Bay Packers (-1.5) @ Atlanta Falcons
The Packers surprised some in Week 1. Jordan Love passed for three touchdowns with help from running back Aaron Jones and wide receiver Romeo Doubs. This week’s line completely flipped from Falcons -1.5 to Packers -1.5. And I’m not sure it is enough.
The Packers are better, but the books are slow to keep up. This team has a great defense and Love showed he can steer the offense in the right direction. While the Falcons did get a divisional win last week, the benefited more from the rookie struggles of Bryce Young than their own merit. Desmond Ridder still is developing as a passer and unfortunately, he did not have Aaron Rodgers to sit behind. I like Coach LaFleur to outcoach Coach Smith in Love’s first road start.
New York Jets (+9.5) @ Dallas Cowboys
I could not in good faith leave this line out. Prior to Monday night, the Cowboys were three-point favorites. By the fourth quarter, with Rodgers out with an Achilles tear, the ‘Boys were at -7.5. And a day after the Jets’ miraculous punt return in overtime, the line is Cowboys -9.5.
The Jets are back to where they were last year with Zach Wilson running things, but Wilson does not quarterback the defense. That honor goes to C.J. Mosley, and his D forced four turnovers and gave up 16 points. Sauce Gardner and the defense had already broken out last season and have solidified themselves as one of the best in the league.
The Cowboys annihilated the New York Giants on Sunday night. Their defensive line wreaked havoc all night and gave the Giants offensive line all they could handle. While I do expect much of the same from them on defense, I expect the Cowboys to struggle to find ways to move the ball versus the Jets defense.
I’m very interested in seeing a Dak Prescott interception player prop price. The Jets will struggle on offense, but the Cowboys will as well. I think the Jets cover the +9.5 and I would seriously consider a look towards the under.
The first week of the NFL regular season is in the books, so you've got a sample size, albeit a very small one. But this is a great chance to find that golden nugget on the waiver wire that could carry you to your fantasy league championship.
In the video below, Sportstopia's Simon Groenevld, Terrell Furman and Stu 'Monotone' Durst talk about some great possibilities to add to your roster for Week 2 on the waiver run. They also break down the wild Bills-Jets game on Monday Night Football.
There are an jam-packed 17 games across the league, including two doubleheaders. Among them, the Yankees vs Red Sox at Fenway Park. Also, the Braves and Phillies continue to battle it out for National League dominance. There are many options to choose from on Underdog and PrizePicks to make money on the diamond.
Max Scherzer 1.5 Walks Allowed (Higher) – Underdog
Outside of his last outing at home against the rival Astros where he allowed seven earned runs in three innings, Scherzer’s tenure with the Rangers started great. However, he has walked at least two batters in 11 of his last 13 starts. Over the last month, the Blue Jays own the second-highest walk percentage versus right-handed pitching.
Adam Wainwright 6 Hits Allowed (Higher) -- Underdog
The Orioles have been the biggest surprise in recent memory. They have over 90 wins with three weeks left to play and show no signs of slowing down. Over the last 10 days they own the highest batting average in baseball at .309. The next closest team, the Astros sit at .289. The O’s are hot and Waino is not. Wainwright has the slowest average fastball velocity across MLB this season and has allowed more than six hits in 15 of 19 starts.
Gunnar Henderson 8.5 Fantasy Points (Higher) - Underdog
As a result of picking on Wainwright we’re going to back the Orioles' hottest hitter so far in the second half of the season. We picked on Wainwright in his last start out in Atlanta and it paid off so we’re going straight back to the well. The rookie Henderson appears to have figured out hitting at the MLB level. He has the fifth most total bases over the last month.
As much as it pains me as a Yankees fan to write, Aaron Hicks is proving to the Orioles why New York paid him all that money the last couple of years. Since the start of September, he has the highest batting average in MLB at .464. He is 4 for 5 in his career versus Wainwright with a homerun. He has hit this line in seven straight games.
Max Fried 5.5 Hits Allowed (Higher) – Underdog
Fading Fried is risky, but if there is ever a team to do it, it’s the 2023 Phillies. He has allowed six hits or more in five of his seven starts since returning to the rotation. The Phillies' projected lineup has smacked him around, and Philadelphia has the 10th highest BA and second-most HRs versus lefties. Over the last month the Phillies have the third highest BA average.
Trea Turner 8.5 Fantasy Points (More) - PrizepPcks
I’m not always eager to take picks against Max Fried, but there’s no denying the success Turner has had facing him. With a large sample size of 32 at-bats, Turner owns a .406 batting average against Fried. Turner has also been a much better hitter at home this season with a .298 batting average at Citizens Bank Ballpark compared to his .242 on the road. Over the last month, Turner has the fifth most hits in MLB and the second-most total bases.
There's lingering concern for the doubleheader at Fenway Park, especially in the nightcap, after Monday's series opener was postponed. There are similar worries for Nats-Pirates with scattered storms forecasted throughout the evening in Pittsburgh. They're not complete stay-away situations, but there's definitely increased risk.
Injury Report
Shohei Ohtani, Angels DH (oblique)
While the Angels continue to assert that Ohtani is on the precipice of returning, he’s missed eight straight games. It sounds like he’ll avoid a trip to the injured list, but he’s hardly a lock to return for today’s game in Seattle.
Oswald Peraza, Yankees 2B/3B (knee)
Peraza is day-to-day with left knee inflammation, which makes it unlikely he’ll play in both games of Tuesday’s twin bill at Fenway Park.
Jose Siri, Rays OF (hand)
Siri suffered a fractured right hand when he was hit by a pitch during Monday’s series opener against the Twins and is likely facing a multi-week absence.
Isaac Paredes, Rays 3B (hand)
Paredes has sat out two straight games due to a right-hand contusion stemming from a hit by a pitch over the weekend. Fantasy managers should consider him day-to-day.
Brandon Belt, Blue Jays 1B (back)
Belt was removed from Monday's game against the Rangers with lower back muscle spasms. The veteran slugger has missed nine of the last 11 games.
Jeimer Candelario, Cubs 1B/3B (back)
Candelario sat out Monday’s series opener against the Rockies following an early exit from Sunday’s game due to back tightness.
Christian Yelich, Brewers OF (back)
Yelich has missed three straight contests after being scratched for Saturday's game against the Yankees due to lower back soreness. Fantasy managers should consider him day-to-day.
Francisco Alvarez, Mets C (arm)
Alvarez got the night off Monday against the Diamondbacks after X-rays came back negative for any fractures following a hit by a pitch on the right hand Sunday.
Top Priced Starting Pitchers (DraftKings)
Freddy Peralta (MIL) vs. MIA: $11,800
Max Scherzer (TEX) vs. TOR: $11,300
Justin Verlander (HOU) vs. OAK: $10,700
Joe Ryan (MIN) vs. TB: $9,500
Michael Wacha (SD) vs. LAD: $8,900
Hyun Jin Ryu (TOR) vs. TEX: $8,600
Lance Lynn (LAD) vs. SD: $8,400
Edward Cabrera (MIA) vs. MIL: $8,100
Bryan Woo (SEA) vs. LAA: $7,900
Patrick Sandoval (LAA) vs. SEA: $7,500
Carlos Rodón (NYY) vs. BOS: $7,300
Peralta finds himself atop Tuesday’s starting pitching slate after Monday’s complete-game shutout of the Marlins by teammate Brandon Woodruff. It’s an extremely favorable matchup in an extreme pitcher’s park, which bodes well for the 27-year-old right-hander’s chances to work deep into the contest.
There aren’t a ton of appealing options otherwise Tuesday, which makes Verlander an even more appealing building block in a tasty matchup against the floundering Athletics. He hasn’t faced Oakland’s lackluster lineup this season and is coming off a strong seven-inning effort against the division-rival Rangers.
Cabrera certainly turned some heads his last time out with eight strikeouts over four shutout frames against a loaded Dodgers’ lineup. The 25-year-old right-hander was one of the premier starting pitching prospects in baseball just a few years ago, but hasn’t quite put it all together at the highest level. Given his immense strikeout potential, and recent success, he’s a worthwhile dice roll for fantasy managers against Milwaukee’s pedestrian offense.
Sneaky Option
Sean Manaea vs. Guardians: $5,700
He likely won’t work deep into Tuesday’s start against the Guardians, but the Contrarian Edge Optimizer is a big fan of Manaea as a savvy option. The Optimizer grades him as a top-10 option, despite being one of the lower-cost options out there.
The 31-year-old southpaw is facing a Guardians’ lineup with a MLB-worst .658 OPS against left-handed pitching this season. There won’t be a ton of volume here, but Manaea figures to gobble up at least a couple frames and should pile up strikeouts against Cleveland.
Stack Attack
Cubs at Rockies (RHP Chris Flexen)
Flexen was lit up for six runs over 2 1/3 innings his last time out against the Diamondbacks and Chicago's lineup offers the type of left-handed firepower that can get him into serious trouble early at Coors. Southpaw sluggers Cody Bellinger and Ian Happ make a ton of sense for fantasy managers as core lineup building blocks with veteran backstop Yan Gomes making for an attractive option at catcher.
1B/OF Cody Bellinger: $6,800
2B Nico Hoerner: $6,100
SS Dansby Swanson: $5,500
OF Ian Happ: $5,100
1B/3B Jeimer Candelario: $4,900
Seiya Suzuki: $4,200
3B/OF Christopher Morel: $5,200
C Yan Gomes: $3,700
Padres at Dodgers (RHP Lance Lynn)
Lynn has served up a staggering 12 homers across 40 innings (seven starts) since coming over to Los Angeles at the trade deadline. That gives San Diego's lineup, which exploded for 11 runs on 14 hits during Monday's series opener, an opportunity to mash at Dodger Stadium.
The waiver run after Week 1 of the NFL season can be the most important for your fantasy team, but be careful not to overreact. This waiver run is where you may have picked up Cordarrelle Patterson or Phillip Lindsay on the way to a championship in past years, but it also is where you may have dropped 50 percent of your FAAB on Marquez Callaway on the way to a 6th-place finish.
If you correctly read the tea leaves, the outcome can be winning your league. There’s a lot of fool’s gold out there though, so let’s find our way through it.
Wide Receivers
Puka Nacua, Rams (10% Rostered)
With Cooper Kupp on IR, many expected Van Jefferson or even Tyler Higbee to be heavily targeted in the Rams’ Week 1 matchup against the Seahawks. In walks fifth-round pick Nacua to establish himself as the team’s top option in Kupp’s absence.
While we try not to overreact, don’t underreact either to 15 targets, 10 receptions, and 119 yards. That’s 21.9 PPR fantasy points without a touchdown. Nacua should be rostered in all leagues.
Zay Jones, Jaguars (37% Rostered)
Say hello to Jacksonville’s WR2. There was motion around him in the WR room this offseason with the addition of Calvin Ridley, but this seems to have had more of an impact on teammate Christian Kirk than it did on Jones.
While I fully expect $20 million man Christian Kirk and tight end Evan Engram to have their games, Jones appears to be a core part of this ascending Jaguars offensive game plan.
Jakobi Meyers, Raiders (51% Rostered)
Meyers took every comment from every analyst calling him ‘boring’ or ‘just a guy’ and hung them in his locker heading into this game. He showed up with two touchdowns and out-targeted teammate Davante Adams.
Meyers appears to be an integral part of this team and a favorite of new Raiders QB Jimmy Garoppolo. While his Week 2 status is up in the air because of a potential concussion. He’s still worth adding as Jimmy G’s slot guy, so you just might have to wait a week.
Eleven targets on a team with an unclear wide receiver pecking order? Sign me up. While Bourne seems like a boring roster clogging type of player to add, I’m throwing away everything we saw from the New England offense last year when Matt Patricia was calling plays, and that includes Bourne’s usage last season.
Bourne may be establishing himself as Mac Jones' favorite target. But Bourne will probably just be a contributor in an offense that infuriates fantasy managers and spreads the ball around (think a way less fun version of the Chiefs).
That being said, the Patriots head to Miami next weekend and I want the player who appears to be the odds on favorite as the top target for this team heading into what could be a shootout.
Rashee Rice, Chiefs (53% Rostered)
Check your waiver wire to see if this rookie is there. I’m not comfortable starting him this upcoming week (or any Chiefs’ wide receiver really) but there were signs Thursday night that Rice could separate himself as the No. 1 as the season progresses. If there’s evidence that a wide receiver could become a favorite target of Patrick Mahomes, you roster him.
Running Backs
Kyren Williams, Rams (6% Rostered)
Cam Akers had 22 carries to Kyren Williams’ 15, but in every other statistical category Williams had him beat. I don’t know what happened to the Akers we saw at the end of last season, but this is looking like a split backfield at best.
If the level of play from these two backs is similar in the coming weeks, I’d expect more and more of a shift toward Williams. Be wary of starting him next week against a solid 49ers defense.
Joshua Kelley (7% Rostered)
High. Value. Backup. Kelley’s 16 carries, 91 yards, and a TD this week communicated that not only is he the backup to roster behind Austin Ekeler, but he also has weekly startability as a flex play. There isn’t any real upside to Kelley – all of that belongs to his friend Ekeler, weekly fantasy production with the upside of filling in if there is an injury in front of him makes him a must add.
Tyler Allgeier, Falcons (57% Rostered)
Avert your eyes, Kyle Pitts and Drake London fans, because this Falcons’ offense is all about the run. Key beneficiary? Last year’s quietest 1,000-yard rusher, Allgeier. While he won’t outcarry Bijan Robinson much longer, he should have a continued role in this VERY rush heavy offense.
Similar to Kelley, the upside is capped because Bijan is holding onto most of it. But also similar to Kelley, Allgeier has weekly stand alone value and is a high value backup to Robinson.
Gus Edwards, Ravens (20% Rostered) /Justice Hill / Melvin Gordon
Edwards ‘should’ be the lead back in this Ravens offense with the unfortunate season ending injury to JK Dobbins in Week 1, but what we saw this weekend doesn’t necessarily support that. The Ravens split carries evenly between backs Edwards and Hill, with the goal line work confusingly going to Hill.
Of the backs here, I like Edwards. His career Yards Per Attempt is over 5 and he has the build to be the goalline back. Let your league mates bid up Hill on the waiver wire and snag the true lead back in Edwards.
It’s not a bad idea to throw a waiver claim on Gordon either. He’s being elevated from the practice squad and that’d be so very Ravens of this team to have Gordon lead the backfield.
Leonard Fournette / Kareem Hunt, free agents
These are luxury adds if you have the bench space. We were reminded in Week 1 about the fragility of the running back position. Injuries are inevitable. While not currently signed, I expect both of these backs to sign as team needs arise.
Preference goes to Fournette because he’s better, but both are decent stashes at this point in the season.
Tight Ends
Hayden Hurst (12% Rostered)
Hurst is the best receiver on the Panthers. That says more about the other options there (sorry Terrace Marshall) than it does about Hurst, but the outcome is the same for fantasy: a tight end who could very well be the top target on his team is just sitting on the waiver wire in near 90% of leagues.
Opportunity is king for the TE position, and with rookie Bryce Young taking a liking to Hurst, the opportunity knows no limit (well, except for the limitations of this Panthers’ offense as a whole).
Zach Ertz, Cardinals (11% Rostered)
Gross, I know. But Ertz had 10 targets and it’s not something we can just ignore. While Kyler Murray is out at least, Ertz is a viable start on volume alone. Don’t get your hopes up though, those 10 targets turned into just six catches for 21 yards. 8.1 fantasy points is fine. If Ertz doesn’t catch a touchdown, you’re okay with it. If he does? You’re thrilled. That’s about all you can ask for from most fantasy TEs.
Quarterbacks
Brock Purdy, 49ers (51%)
Purdy made it clear the 49ers made the right decision in naming him the starter. That being said, being a good NFL quarterback and a good fantasy quarterback are two different things. If you need safety and consistency at QB, Purdy is a worthwhile add. If you need upside, he is not your guy.
Sam Howell, Commanders (23%)
Howell’s biggest gift to fantasy managers is the magic he can produce with his legs. We saw that on display with the rushing touchdown he brought in himself to add to the 202 yards passing and a TD he threw for. If you’re looking for upside on the waiver wire at the QB position, he’s your guy.
Jordan Love, Packers (39%)
Love balled out in the first game of the Aaron Rodgers-less Era. While only completing about half of his pass attempts (15/27), Love still had 245 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions.
All this without presumed top pass catcher Christian Watson. While this is just one game against a subpar defense, what we saw could indicate Love is a top 12 fantasy QB just sitting on the waiver wire.
Multiple games have a chance to be postponed or delayed east of the Mississippi. White Sox-Royals is the most likely to see a delay or flat-out cancellation, but Braves-Phillies, Red Sox-Yankees and Diamondbacks-Mets are all games fantasy GMs will want to pay close attention to before committing to having them in the lineup.
Injury Report
Jasson Dominguez, Yankees OF, UCL: Dominguez will miss the rest of the 2023 season and a good portion of the 2024 year after he was diagnosed with a torn ulnar ligament in his right elbow. The young outfielder was impressive in his time with the Yankees, but now won’t be an option for fantasy managers until after next year’s All-Star break, in all likelihood.
Shohei Ohtani, Angels DH, Oblique: Ohtani sat for the seventh consecutive game because of his oblique injury on Sunday, but there is a chance that the presumed 2023 MVP could be back in the lineup to start Monday’s series against the Mariners. Obviously, fantasy GMs will want to make absolute sure that the designated hitter is in the lineup, but there’s always a chance for Ohtani to hit a homer or two whenever he’s available to play.
Jordan Lawlar, Diamondbacks SS, Hand
Ketel Marte, Diamondbacks 2B, Knee
Both Marte and Lawlar suffered injury scares in Saturday’s game against the Cubs, with Marte fouling a ball off his knee, and Lawlar being hit in the hand by a pitch in the 10th inning. Both sat out Sunday’s game, but Diamondbacks manager Torey Lovullo told reporters that Lawlar’s absence was just a day off and his hand was “fine.”
Still, managers will need to pay close attention to this one, as there’s a chance both talented options are on the bench for the series opener against the Mets on Monday -- if the game is even able to be played.
Top Priced Starting Pitchers for Main Slate (DraftKings)
Tyler Glasnow (TB) vs. MIN: $10,800
Brandon Woodruff (MIL) vs. MIA: $10,300
Framber Valdez (HOU) vs. OAK: $9,800
Logan Gilbert (SEA) vs. LAA $9,200
Chris Bassitt (TOR) vs. TEX: $9,000
Sonny Gray (MIN) vs. TB: $8,800
Jesus Luzardo (MIA) vs. MIL: $8,500
Dylan Cease (CHW) vs. KC: $8,300
Gavin Williams (CLE) vs. SF: $8,000
It’s a loaded Monday in terms of quality and quantity on the mound, and unsurprisingly, Glasnow is the most expensive option for the main slate. He’s coming off a start where he punched out 14 Boston hitters and allowed just one run on three hits while picking up a victory, and he’s compiled a 2.98 ERA with an excellent 134/28 K/BB ratio in his 17 starts for Tampa Bay in 2023.
The Twins lineup offers some pop, but it also offers a considerable amount of swing-and-miss to go with it. Glasnow could -- and should -- be in line for at least a good deal of strikeouts. Again.
The Blue Jays-Rangers series is one that has massive playoff implications for a handful of clubs, and it also sees one of the hottest pitchers in baseball -- Chris Bassitt -- in his last two starts. He’s gone eight innings in both of those outings while allowing just one run, but it’s worth pointing out those starts came against the Athletics and Nationals, and he “only” struck out 10 hitters over those 16 innings. He’ll take on a Texas team that is scuffling but still features some elite offensive options, so there’s a little bit of risk in using an option like Bassitt in this Monday slate.
Speaking of scuffling, the Mariners are limping into the final few weeks after a 3-7 road trip, but Gilbert has been a strong option as of late, and makes a lot of sense as a fantasy player against the Angels. The right-hander has struck out nine in back-to-back outings, and he’s allowed no more than three runs over his last four starts. Even if Ohtani is in the lineup, the Halos are a well below-average offense at this point, and with the Mariners due to pick things back up, it wouldn’t be a big surprise at all if Gilbert registered his 14th win and added double-digit or so strikeouts for good measure.
Sneaky option
Kutter Crawford vs. Yankees: $5,700
Crawford has struggled in his last two starts while allowing 11 total runs over 6.1 innings, but it’s worth pointing out that those outings came against the Rays and Astros. In this one, the young right-hander will be squaring off a Yankees’ team that isn’t bereft of talent, but doesn’t offer the same kind of lineup depth that those two aforementioned teams possess. Crawford has been a solid if unspectacular option for the majority of the season, and his cheap price would allow you to add one of the big names above without (too much) worry.
Stack Attack
Astros vs. Athletics (Mason Miller)
1B Jose Abreu: $3,700
SS Jeremy Pena: $4,300
OF Yordan Alvarez $6,200
OF Kyle Tucker $5,900
Miller has had success in his brief time with Oakland and offers the potential for miss bats in the future, but he’ll be making his first start since May as he works his way back from an elbow sprain, and he isn’t likely to go terribly deep in this outing even if he’s effective. The Astros are starting to pick things back up as of late, and you get a pair of stars in Alvarez and Tucker with this stack on top of some cheaper options. It will make sense to stack against Oakland until the season comes to a conclusion.
Cubs vs. Rockies (Kyle Freeland)
C Yan Gomes: $3,700
3B Nick Madrigal: $3,000
OF Seiya Suzuki $4,200
Freeland has posted a 5.05 ERA in Coors Field this season. Against right-handed hitters, he’s given up a slash of .312/.357/.554 over 455 at-bats with 25 homers and 54 extra-base hits. The Rockies are 51-91. The Cubs are closing in on making a surprise trip to the postseason. This one’s pretty obvious right? Just because it’s obvious doesn’t make it a bad play, however, and the fact that none of these options are expensive means you can add some real star talent to your DFS roster both on the mound and the rest of your lineup.
Week 1 of the NFL Season, we hardly knew ye. Just as we settled in to watch seven hours of commercial-free football followed by the Sunday night game, it was like we blinked, and you were already over.
You did leave us with some highs and lows before you left, and while some of our fantasy lineups may be in shambles, there’s a whole season left to turn things around. So without further ado, here is week 1’s no cap recap!
Tyler Allgeier, Falcons RB – 94 total yards, 2 TDs
Kyren Williams, Rams RB – 52 yards, 2 TDs
Tony Pollard, Cowboys RB – 82 total yards, 2 TDs
Tua and Tyreek a Terrific Tandem
If you’re a Miami Dolphins backer, then you’re laughing all the way to the bank -- 536 total yards of offense. Miami kept Tua upright and he made the Chargers defense pay. Both Tagovailoa and Hill were stacked in the winning “Milly Maker” lineup from Sunday. With defense a non-factor, expect this stack to be a popular one. And for Jaylen Waddle fans, don’t worry! A quiet 78 yards was an efficient 78 yards as he averaged 19.5 yards per grab. Better days are ahead.
Ekeler’s running mate Josh Kelley almost put up 100 yards of his own and added a touchdown. But you could argue people expected more from Herbert after he only tossed for 1 touchdown (he ran for another) and none of his receivers went over 100 yards. Get to work, Kellen Moore.
In Pittsburgh, I’m not sure if Aiyuk was making Brock Purdy look like Montana and Young or Purdy was making Aiyuk look like Jerry Rice, but the duo was cooking. The 49ers did something you don’t see very often: they made Mike Tomlin’s group look unprepared.
Christian McCaffrey did CMC things on his way to 152 yards on the ground and a touchdown. George Kittle had a quiet game, but I’m not panicking on him yet. With health concerns coming in, I expect him to find that connection with Purdy again that made him a top-3 tight end in the final weeks of last season.
Jones the Man in Green Bay
Death, taxes, and the Bears losing to the Packers. Those have been the guarantees since 2018 -- the last time Chicago got a win over the cheese. There was hope a Chicago streak could start with Aaron Rodgers out of the picture, but Jordan Love didn’t miss a beat.
What’s clear is Jones is the man in the Green Bay offense now more than ever. The Packers were in a lull before making the third quarter the Aaron Jones show. He scored twice in the quarter before an early exit with a hamstring issue. It will be something to monitor as his primary backup A.J. Dillon plodded his way to 19 yards on 13 carries.
Everyone in Atlanta was excited to see what first-round pick Bijan Robinson could do at running back. The kids like to say, “he ate,” but I’d call his performance more of a snack. The electricity was there and he got into the endzone for his first NFL score, but it was his backup who got a surprising amount of runs.
Allgeier may have been an afterthought for some, but he got more touches and yards than Robinson on the ground and secured two touchdowns of his own. Falcons coach Arthur Smith is famous for not thinking much of fantasy stats, but it certainly seems like both running backs will be start-able this season.
Los Angeles Rams runner Cam Akers was RB3 over the final six weeks of 2022. But that guy didn’t show up this weekend -- 29 yards on 22 carries. Instead, it was Kyren Williams carrying the Rams to an unexpected victory in Seattle. Will the real Cam Akers please stand up?
Dallas’ offense didn’t need to do that much during biblical rains in their game against the Giants, but their star running back still looked electric. Pollard averaged 5 yards per carry in the 40-0 beatdown of Big Blue. He added two catches for 12 yards, but that number should go up with better weather and an opponent that has more life than the Giants squad that got shut out.
Don't Panic on Bengals Yet
As for the duds, there was probably no bigger disappointment than the entire Cincinnati Bengals roster. Whether you play season long or DFS, you probably targeted a Bengal especially after Joe Burrow got the big money deal. All he did was turn in the worst performance of his career after a preseason where he was rehabbing an injured calf and a rainstorm in Cleveland.
The Browns’ defense played well at every level, holding Burrow to 82 passing yards and no touchdowns while sacking him twice. Tee Higgins had zero catches on eight targets, and Ja’Marr Chase had only 39 yards.
I’m willing to bet this is an exception and not the norm, and I’m not ready to panic. Let’s see how they handle a Ravens team that just gave up 268 yards to the lowly Texans.
An optimizer is a powerful tool to harness in DFS play, capable of bulk operations in an instant that would otherwise take hours of manipulation to perform manually. Like any other tool, one must first learn how to wield an optimizer before its true power can be realized. That is exactly what we will look to sort through in this weekly series.
We’ll focus on the Contrarian Edge Optimizer to use for Monday Night Football this season to explore the tool itself, maximize expected value through optimal utilization and provide a sneak peek into the newest, and most dynamic optimizer in the industry.
Get Projection CSV
Before manipulating any of the settings in the optimizer, I first like to export the projections via a comma-separated values document, which provides all the raw projections used by the optimizer for each player on the slate. Before continuing, it is important to understand what these values represent.
Median Projections
By definition, a median represents a projection whose final outcome would land above the projection and below the projection an equal 50 percent of the time. As such, the modeling in these algorithms can be back tested to find reliability indexes and tweak the algorithm to provide further accuracy.
The idea of median is difficult for the human brain to comprehend. We like things simple, direct and to the point – which is what median projections aim to provide. We must realize that these top-level values are a numerical representation of a range of outcomes for each player on a given slate.
This range of outcomes will be different shapes, sizes, and magnitudes for every player and becomes one of the better inputs to manipulate to alter the output from the optimizer. Give it a try! Run the optimizer without manipulating any of the median projections and see what it provides.
Then, manipulate just one player’s median to a 60 percent outcome (multiply the raw projection by six and divide by five) and run the optimizer again to see how that changes the output in roster form. Higher on a player on a given slate than the median projections are accounting for? Bump their value in the CSV within their range of outcomes and see how the optimizer responds! And best of all, the directions to complete this step in the process are readily available in the top-level of the optimizer design.
Predictive Analytics Modeling
Predictive analytics utilizes statistical modeling methods to predict future outcomes. In other words, predictive analytics attempts to utilize machine learning algorithms to create predictive models. With the optimizer, the behind-the-scenes work has been done for us, but we can manipulate the outputs by changing inputs as previously discussed.
Variance in Median Projections
The best way to visualize a range of outcomes projection, assuming we are provided with a median projection, is to utilize a bell curve. This bell curve will be situated about the median with an array of potential outcomes. Most bell curves are symmetrical about the median, but some players carry an asymmetrical distribution of values within their broader range. These players, largely considered “low floor-high ceiling” plays, are some of the most difficult to predict and project due to their lopsided array.
Median projections must also account for ambiguity in certain situations. For example, there is significant ambiguity associated with the Buffalo Bills and the expected snap rates for players from the slot. Deonte Harty, Khalil Shakir, Trent Sherfield, and rookie tight end Dalton Kincaid could all see slot usage, but the optimizer must account for these wide ranges of potential outcomes and display it through median projections in numerical form. This introduces significant variance in those projections, something we can look to manipulate to harness in our favor.
In numerical models, these statistical anomalies are best represented through standard deviation – but we can do things to manipulate these players manually in the optimizer.
Auto Ownership Bonus
First, select “Set Pro Options” on the top left of your screen in the optimizer. Next, toggle “Auto Ownership Bonus” in the dropdown menu. This function is used to set an ownership threshold and bonus to encourage the inclusion of players that are less owned, leveraging the variance associated with median projections and ownership values.
This functionality will also help to harness the second major statistical input to the modeling – expected ownership. Since the game of football includes high rates of variance, ownership projections are a valuable input to leverage in the process. These ownership bonus thresholds can be manipulated to increase or decrease exposure to variance.
Week 1 MNF Example
Let’s put these practices in action for Week 1 using the Contrarian Edge Optimizer. We’ll focus on the ambiguity with the expected slot snap rates from the Buffalo Bills, alter inputs, and see the outputs from those deviations. We won’t be able to see the full roster outputs for obvious reasons (the optimizer is a paid tool), but we should be able to conceptualize the effects of these manipulations.
I changed the projection of Deonte Harty to an 80 percent outcome, accounting for the potential for him to see a slot snap rate that is higher than his expectation, imported the new data into the optimizer and ran the simulation without adjusting any other values or manipulating any of the Pro Options.
Deonte Harty returned as the optimal Captain in that run, at 0.6 percent expected ownership. Doing the same for Dalton Kincaid returns him as the optimal Captain. The same can be done in the other direction to account for outcomes below median projection, which is useful for variant acts like injuries and matchup induced outliers.
The first installment in this series was broader and more conceptual than it will be in the future, but hopefully it helped to establish a foundational and working knowledge of the power of the optimizer and how to manipulate top-level statistical inputs. From here on out, we’ll get into the optimizer on a deeper level. Best of luck in Week 1 and we’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards!
It’s an absolutely loaded Monday slate, with a staggering 15 games on tap, including a twin bill between the Braves and Phillies. Unfortunately, electrifying Yankees rookie outfielder Jasson Domínguez’s torn UCL in his right elbow, which will require Tommy John surgery that will likely keep him out until mid-2024, overshadows the start of an intriguing series between the Yankees and Red Sox at Fenway Park.
Tyler Glasnow, Rays RHP: 8.0 strikeouts – Over (Underdog)
Glasnow, who matched a career-high with 14 strikeouts Wednesday in his previous start against the Red Sox, has eclipsed eight strikeouts in only eight of 17 outings this season. He's done it just once in his last five starts dating back to Aug. 14.
However, the Twins have struck out a major league-leading 550 times in 52 games since the All-Star break. The combination of Glasnow's swing-and-miss stuff and Minnesota's propensity to whiff make topping 8Ks a realistic outcome.
Brandon Woodruff, Brewers RHP: 1.5 walks -- Under (Underdog)
The Marlins are one of a handful of lineups that don't take a ton of free passes, ranking 29th in walks with just 112 in 51 contests since the All-Star break. Woodruff has pitched extremely well of late, surrendering two earned runs or fewer in five of his six starts since returning from a lengthy injured list stint on Aug.6.
The 30-year-old right-hander has also handed out only nine free passes across 35 2/3 innings during that span. His stellar control paired with Miami's aggressive offensive approach make it highly unlikely that he's going to issue multiple walks Monday evening.
Esteury Ruiz, Athletics OF: 0.5 total bases – Over (Underdog)
Ruiz has compiled a solid .744 OPS against left-handed pitching this season, but he's 1 for 7 with three strikeouts against Astros left-hander Framber Valdez. But the 24-year-old speedster has held his own against southpaw, which makes his extremely small sample size against Valdez even more of an outlier.
Ruiz has stuck at the bottom of Oakland's lineup, which limits his opportunities, but the lengthier track record suggests he's got a decent shot at coming through Monday night with at least one hit against Houston.
José Quintana, Mets LHP: 16.5 pitching outs – Over (Underdog)
Quintana has completed six innings (18 outs) in seven of his nine outings since making his season debut July 20. The Diamondbacks' offense is certainly capable of catching fire, but there's a possibility they come out of a gate a bit slow following a cross-country flight to New York, especially with Ketel Marte and Jordan Lawlar likely to sit out due to injury.
Ronald Acuña Jr, Braves OF: 10.0 hitter fantasy score -- Over (PrimePicks)
It’s not a big risk to roll the dice on the National League MVP Award front-runner in the midst of a transcendent offensive campaign, but he has zero extra-base hits in 11 career plate appearances against Taijuan Walker, who will take the ball for the Phillies during the front-end of Monday's doubleheader in Philadelphia.
However, the 25-year-old superstar outfielder is in the midst of another sizzling-hot stretch at the dish, posting a 1.132 OPS with five homers and 10 RBI in nine games since the start of September. Citizens Bank Park is extremely hitter-friendly, and the Braves are rolling with their main offensive catalyst doing the heavy lifting.
We’ve made it to our first Sunday Night Football game of the 2023 season. It’s been a long summer waiting for Carrie Underwood to bless our televisions again, and it’s one of the NFL’s best rivalries --the New York Giants vs the Dallas Cowboys.
Game
Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants, 8:20 p.m. ET
Betting Odds (DraftKings)
Line: Cowboys -3.5
Moneyline: Cowboys -180, Giants +150
Over/Under: 45.5 points
Team ranks (2022)
Cowboys
Points for: 26.8 PPG (4th)
Points allowed: 19.7 (6th)
Giants
Points for: 21.2 (18th)
Points allowed: 22.8 (22nd)
Key Injuries to Watch
Cowboys
Tyler Smith, LG (hamstring) -- Doubtful
Tyron Smith, LT (ankle) -- Questionable
Giants
Darren Waller, TE (hamstring) -- Questionable
Wan’Dale Robinson, WR (knee) --Doubtful
The Smiths make up the left side of the Cowboys’ offensive line. If both can’t go, the Giants’ pass rush may have a greater impact than we expect. The Cowboys’ run game may also not be as effective. Tyler Smith is the more likely of the two to not suit up.
Waller was a late addition to the injury report and was likely injured during practice. He is a game-time decision as the Giants are expected to test out the hamstring before the game. Waller has a history of hamstring issues, so expect the G-Men to tread lightly with an entire season ahead.
If Waller were to sit, Daniel Bellinger and Lawrence Cager would slide into prominent tight end roles.
Despite coming off the Physically Unable to Perform (PUP) list ahead of the season, Robinson will need more time to recover before he is a full go.
Bell cow RBs/Big Prices (DraftKings)
Captain Prices
Tony Pollard, RB, $16,500
Saquon Barkley, RB, $15,900
CeeDee Lamb, WR, $15,600
Dak Prescott, QB, $15,000
Daniel Jones, QB, $14,100
Darren Waller, TE, $12,600
Brandin Cooks, WR, $10,800
Isaiah Hodgins, WR, $9,600
Flex Prices
Tony Pollard, RB, $11,000
Saquon Barkley, RB, $10,600
CeeDee Lamb, WR, $10,400
Dak Prescott, QB, $10,000
Daniel Jones, QB, $9,400
Darren Waller, TE, $8,400
Brandin Cooks, WR, $7,200
Isaiah Hodgins, WR $6,400
Tony Pollard is taking over lead running back duties in Dallas. With Ezekiel Elliott no longer an option, Pollard should have ample opportunity to put his stamp on the offense. He had ankle surgery in the offseason, but all signs point to him being the bell cow that fantasy managers have been clamoring for since 2021.
Pollard gets to kick off the season against a Giants run defense that allowed the second-most yards per carry (5.2), the sixth-most rushing yards per game (144), and the most yards per reception to backs. For the explosive Pollard, who can turn any play into a house call, this is a great recipe to start the season.
As mentioned earlier, the Cowboys’ offensive line could be in trouble on the left side. The Giants’ defense is young, but on the interior Leonard Williams and Dexter Lawrence can make it a long night for Dak Prescott.
If Kayvon Thibodeaux makes a leap in his second season, the Giants’ pass rush can be a force. This would help mask their youth at DB, as they are expected to start two rookie cornerbacks.
If Waller does indeed make his debut, expect him to produce at an elite level. The Dallas defense allowed touchdown passes at the fourth highest rate last season. They allowed nine of those from the slot, and Waller is a menace from there. He ran 60 percent of his routes last season from the slot for the Raiders.
CeeDee Lamb should be busy, and likely is the captain worth paying for in your lineups. Our Contrarian Edge Optimizer projects Lamb for the third most fantasy points overall in Week 1. He flat out torched the Giants’ secondary last season on a 37% target share in those games.
The Giants’ defense loves to blitz. They blitzed at the highest rate in the NFL last season (43% of the time), which will leave Lamb to eat up one-on-one matchups.
Sneaky options
Brandin Cooks, Cowboys WR -- $7,200
Cooks is fascinating. He’s now on his fourth NFL team, and in his first season with every team he had at least 1,000 yards. The veteran is entering his 10th season and he’s still only 29. Reports out of Cowboys camp all summer was how shockingly explosive Cooks was on his routes.
The Giants are starting rookies Deonte Banks and Tre Hawkins at cornerback. If the pass rush can’t impact Prescott, Cooks could torch a NYG secondary that allowed the sixth-highest yards per target last season. According to the Contrarian Edge Optimizer, Cooks projects for the lowest ownership among the top names on Sunday night.
Jake Ferguson, Cowboys TE -- $4,800
Ferguson fills the void left by Dalton Schultz, who left in free agency to the Texans. The former fourth-round pick will likely be Dak’s new receiving option at tight end until rookie second-round pick Luke Schoonmaker proves he’s ready.
Ferguson has run-after-the-catch ability, which he flashed last season. Dak’s TEs have accrued at least 90 targets each season in his career. At 6’5’’, Ferguson is a valuable red zone threat.
Parris Campbell, Giants WR -- $4,400
This is strictly a matchup-based play. If Waller is ruled out, it would be wise to get Campbell into the lineup, with the Cowboys being vulnerable guarding the slot. The Dallas defense is strong on the outside with Trevon Diggs and newly acquired former Defensive Player of the Year Stephon Gilmore.
Expect Giants quarterback Daniel Jones to utilize quick throws to the veteran Campbell to avoid the pass rush of Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence. We saw how Jones utilized slot man Richie James last season. Why not Parris in 2023?
Prediction
Many believe in these Cowboys, who have one of the best two-way rosters in the NFL, to be a strong NFC contender. Some analysts are even picking them to win the Super Bowl. Meanwhile, the underdog G-Men are chomping at the bit to repeat their 2022 success.
The Cowboys have defeated the Giants four straight times, and the only victory Daniel Jones has over the Cowboys came in Week 18 back in 2020 in a game Dak Prescott didn’t play in.
I expect that trend to continue tonight. The Giants’ youth in the secondary versus the Cowboys’ veteran wide receivers will prove too much to overcome.
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