September 15, 2023
MLB

Steele Is Your No-Brainer Choice

Build your lineup around NL Cy Young candidate for Friday's slate
Chicago Cubs starting pitcher Justin Steele pitches to the Toronto Blue Jays during the second inning at Rogers Centre in Toronto on Aug 12, 2023. (Kevin Sousa-USA TODAY Sports)

Lineup Stacks

It’s a fully loaded 15-game slate Friday with southpaw’s Justin Steele and Tarik Skubal headlining the most intriguing foundational building blocks from a pitching standpoint.

Additionally, there are several stacking opportunities in the NL West, including tasty matchups in both Arizona and Colorado, to consider constructing the core of lineups around.

Weather Report

There are zero trouble spots on the radar, a relief for fantasy managers who have dealt with several rainouts this week, including a costly one Thursday that washed out a hitter-friendly contest at Coors Field in Colorado.

Injury Report

Ryan Mountcastle, Orioles 1B (shoulder)

Mountcastle is day-to-day after an MRI came back clean following his removal from Wednesday’s game against the Cardinals with left shoulder discomfort.

Shohei Ohtani, Angels DH (oblique)

There’s zero incentive for the Angels to take any chances at this juncture of the season, which has led to Ohtani missing 10 consecutive games with right oblique tightness. It’s difficult to forecast whether he’ll return for Friday’s series opener against the Tigers.

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Mickey Moniak, Angels OF (back)

Moniak has missed seven straight games after being scratched from last Thursday’s lineup due to back tightness. He’s theoretically day-to-day but is hardly a lock to return for Friday’s series opener against the Tigers.

Jarred Kelenic, Mariners OF (foot)

Kelenic sat out Wednesday’s game for precautionary reasons due to right foot soreness, but there’s a strong possibility he’ll be ready for Friday’s tilt against the Dodgers in Los Angeles.

Mitch Garver, Rangers C (foot)

Garver is day-to-day with a left foot contusion after X-rays came back negative following his removal from Thursday's game against the Blue Jays.

Jazz Chisholm Jr., Marlins OF (knee)

There isn’t a ton of clarity here after Chisholm Jr. was removed from Wednesday's game against the Brewers with right knee discomfort. Fantasy managers should consider him day-to-day entering Friday’s series opener against the division-rival Braves.

Christian Yelich, Brewers OF (back)

Yelich is expected to return for Friday’s series opener against the Nationals after missing six straight contests due to lower back soreness.

Mark Canha, Brewers OF (wrist)

Canha is day-to-day with left wrist soreness after an MRI on Thursday came back clean for any structural damage.

Ronny Mauricio, Mets SS (illness)

Mauricio remained absent from the Mets’ lineup for the second consecutive contest on Thursday afternoon due to illness. He was available off the bench, so it stands to reason that he’ll be cleared to return for Friday’s series opener against the Reds.

Brett Baty, 3B Mets (groin)

Baty underwent an MRI on Thursday that revealed a mild left groin strain and should be considered day-to-day for now.

Willson Contreras, Cardinals C (hand)

Contreras has been absent from the Cardinals’ lineup since being lifted from Tuesday’s game with a right-hand contusion.

Michael Conforto, Giants OF (hamstring)

Conforto is expected to be activated from the injured list for Friday’s series opener against the Rockies at Coors Field following a three-week absence due to a left hamstring strain.

Xander Bogaerts, Padres SS (calf)

Bogaerts sat out Wednesday’s game against the Dodgers with calf tightness after fouling a ball off his ankle on Tuesday night, which led to some bruising and lingering tightness in his calf. Fantasy managers should consider him day-to-day for now.

Manny Machado, Padres 3B (elbow)

Machado continues to deal with tennis elbow, which has limited him to designated hitter duty the last few weeks.

Top Priced Starting Pitchers (DraftKings)
  • Aaron Nola (PHI) vs. STL: $10,400
  • Justin Steele (CHC) vs. AZ: $10,100
  • George Kirby (SEA) vs. LAD: $9,500
  • Zach Eflin (TB) vs. BAL: $9,300
  • Hunter Greene (CIN) vs. NYM: $9,100
  • Tarik Skubal (DET) vs. LAA: $9,000
  • José Berríos (TOR) vs. BOS: $8,800
  • Seth Lugo (SD) vs. OAK: $8,600
  • Logan Webb (SF) vs. COL: $8,600
  • Bailey Ober (MIN) vs. CWS: $8,500

There aren’t a ton of high-profile starting pitchers Friday, which make NL Cy Young Award candidate Justin Steele the obvious foundational building block for building a lineup. The 28-year-old left-hander has allowed three earned runs or fewer in 25 of his 27 starts this season, recording a 2.49 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and 159/33 K/BB ratio across 159 innings of work.

He’s been on a roll, managing at least six strikeouts in 10 of his 11 outings since the All-Star break. He’s in line for a tasty road matchup Friday evening against a Diamondbacks’ lineup that ranks 22nd in baseball this season with a pedestrian .706 OPS against left-handed pitching.

Perhaps the most intriguing option outside of the top-five highest-priced options is Skubal, who not only possesses immense strikeout upside, but is also in line for an extremely favorable matchup against an Angels’ lineup that could potentially still be without superstar Shohei Ohtani.

The 26-year-old southpaw, who has notched at least seven strikeouts in five consecutive starts dating back to August 18, holds a solid 3.47 ERA, 1.03 WHIP and 75/13 K/BB ratio across 62 1/3 innings (12 starts) since returning in early July to Detroit’s starting rotation.

Sneaky Option

Sean Newcomb, A’s LHP, vs. Padres: $5,700

Newcomb has quietly emerged as a savvy streaming option, tossing four scoreless frames with five strikeouts last Saturday against a loaded Rangers’ lineup. The A’s acquired the 30-year-old former top pitching prospect last month in an under-the-radar trade with the Giants and has reeled off a microscopic 0.75 ERA, 0.75 WHIP and 15/6 K/BB ratio across 12 innings (six appearances, one start).

He’s in line for an extremely favorable matchup Friday night when he squares off against Cleveland’s lineup, which ranks dead last in baseball this season with a .653 OPS against left-handed pitching.

Stack Attack 

Twins vs. White Sox (RHP Jesse Scholtens)

Scholtens has allowed five earned runs or more in three of his last five starts and will face off against a red-hot Twins’ lineup in the midst of a playoff chase. It’s a combination of factors that could lead to plenty of runs going up on the board Friday evening. 

Royce Lewis, Edouard Julien and Jorge Polanco are the most obvious choices here, but Alex Kirilloff represents an extremely cheap option, and might be worthy of a look from fantasy managers, as he should be in the lineup to face Scholtens in this one.

  • 3B Royce Lewis: $4,900
  • 2B Jorge Polanco: $4,500
  • OF Max Kepler: $3,800
  • 2B Edouard Julien: $3,700
  • 1B Alex Kirilloff: $2,800

Astros vs. Royals (RHP Zack Greinke)

In addition to a ghastly 1-15 record, Greinke has struggled to a bloated 5.47 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and 84/19 K/BB ratio across 126 2/3 innings (26 appearances, 23 starts) in what will likely be his final season in the majors.

More importantly, he’s coughed up 19 homers during that span and will square off against a loaded Astros’ lineup on Friday night, which has been one of the hottest in baseball since the Midsummer Classic.

The usual core building blocks are all in the mix, but Chas McCormick and Yainer Diaz, who have certainly played like big boys this season, are sneaky options for fantasy managers in this one, assuming manager Dusty Baker writes their names on his lineup card.

  • 2B Jose Altuve: $6,200
  • OF Yordan Alvarez: $6,100
  • OF Kyle Tucker: $5,800
  • 3B Alex Bregman: $5,600
  • OF Chas McCormick: $4,400
  • C Yainer Diaz: $4,300

Cubs vs. Diamondbacks (RHP Brandon Pfaadt)

Pfaadt has had serious issues keeping the ball in the yard during his first taste of the majors, serving up a staggering 20 round-trippers in just 80 2/3 innings (16 appearances, 15 starts). Chicago’s lineup is stacked with several left-handed sluggers that appear poised to do some damage Friday night in Arizona, with Cody Bellinger representing the most obvious building block.

  • OF Cody Bellinger: $6,400
  • 2B Nico Hoerner: $5,700
  • SS Dansby Swanson $5,400 
  • 3B/OF Christopher Morel: $5,300
  • OF Ian Happ: $4,900
  • OF Seiya Suzuki: $4,300
  • C Yan Gomes: $3,500

Giants vs. Rockies (RHP Chase Anderson)

Like we were going to skip over Coors Field on a Friday night, seriously? The San Francisco lefty stack is arguably the most appealing build for fantasy managers with LaMonte Wade Jr., Mike Yastrzemski, Joc Pederson and Michael Conforto, who is expected to return from the injured list for Friday’s series opener, all serving as excellent options.

  • OF Joc Pederson: $4,800
  • OF Mike Yastrzemski: $4,400 
  • OF Michael Conforto: $4,000
  • 1B LaMonte Wade Jr.: $4,100

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Weather Report:

There are only three games on the slate today and none should be impacted by precipitation.

Injury Report:

Jorge Soler - Hip - He left Tuesday’s contest against the Rays with right hip tightness. He is considered day-to-day and could be ready to go against the Nationals.

Lane Thomas - Back - He was lifted prior to the seventh inning due to back soreness. It doesn’t sound serious but there is a chance he sits out Thursday.

Mitch Haniger - Rest - Haniger returned from the injured list on Tuesday and sat out against a righty but the team said it was only due to rest. He should be ready to go on Thursday.

Starting Pitchers (DK-FD)

Spencer Strider: 12,500-12,000

Lance Lynn: 8,800-9,500

Braxton Garrett: 8,200-8,700

Pedro Avila: 6,300-6,700

Joan Adon: 5,400-6,400

Sean Manaea: 5,000-7,300

Spencer Strider is the highest-priced pitcher for the slate, which shouldn’t be surprising. He easily leads the slate with a 2.75 SIERA, 1.06 WHIP, and 38 percent strikeout rate. His 1.06 HR/9 is the highest of his career, without taking the two game appearance in the majors late in 2021 into account. His 60 percent HR/Barrel rate is above league average, which indicates that he could be getting a bit unlucky with the long ball. He faces a tough team in the Dodgers which makes the 12K+ price tag a bit steep.

Strider gets to go toe-to-toe with Lance Lynn in the last game in the slate on Tuesday. To say that Lynn has had an up-and-down season is a bit of an understatement. Lynn has a 3.99 SIERA, 1.38 WHIP, and 26 percent strikeout rate on the season but most of the damage was done while he was a member of the Chicago White Sox. Since joining the Dodgers, he has a 4.30 SIERA, 1.06 WHIP, and 21 percent strikeout rate. He faces a very tough task of facing the Braves in Dodgers Stadium. Since both of these pitchers face uphill battles, going cheap on the pitching while loading up on bats, could work tonight.

Braxton Garrett gets to face the Nationals for the second game in a row. Last time out, he allowed three runs over six innings while only picking up three strikeouts. This time around, he will be in the Nationals home ballpark, which has been below league average when it comes to the long ball, especially with the forecast projecting the winds to be blowing into the ballpark.

Batter to Target

Joan Adon is a pitcher that could be easily exploited in this small slate. His 4.44 SIERA is easily the worst of the group ad Nationals Park is a bit hitter-friendly this season. While the Marlins hitters have struggled in the second of the season Jake Burger ($4,100 on DK and $3,000 on FanDuel) could be an option for fantasy managers looking some cheap power.

Stack Attack

Marlins (Braxton Garrett) vs. Nationals:

DK-FD

Lane Thomas: 4,900-3,200

Keibert Ruiz: 4,000-2,600

Joey Meneses: 4,400-2,700

If Lane Thomas is ready to go on Thursday, he is a must add. The 28-year-old is hitting .346/.393/.591 with eight homers and nine stolen bases against southpaws this season. Ruiz and Meneses also have been above league average against left-handed pitching while hitting towards the top of the Nationals lineup.

Giants (Manaea) vs. Padres:

DK-FD

Ha-Seong Kim: 4,900-3,100

Gary Sanchez: 3,800-2,600

Garrett Cooper: 2,900-2,400

Trent Grisham: 2,800-2,500

The Giants haven’t officially named a starter for Thursday’s contest against the Padres but Sean Manaea figures to fill in as the bulk reliever. Ha-Seong Kim has been out of his mind in the second half of the season, while posting a season long line of .329/.413/.579 with eight homers and ten stolen bases against left-handed pitching. Sánchez and Grisham have also hit above league average against lefties and can be add at some really low prices. Cooper has moved up to sixth in the Padres batting order after Jake Cronenworth landed on the injured list with a fractured wrist. If the Padres bats come to life at the top of the order, you could pick up some RBIs at a considerably low price point.

It’s another full slate of games Wednesday, and there are more than a handful of interesting options to gander over. Colorado-Atlanta provides some intriguing value, but a ‘lesser’ game like Kansas City taking on Pittsburgh also offers intrigue.

Here are tonight’s Underdog and Prizepicks plays for Wednesday’s MLB slate.

Bobby Witt Jr. 1.5 Total Bases - Higher (Underdog)

It’d be hard to overstate just how good the Royals' infielder has been in August, as the young star has hit.327/.379/.626 with eight homers while stealing nine bags and driving in 21 runs even for a weak team. On Wednesday, he’ll go up against the Pirates' Andre Jackson; who pitched decently over his last two starts but offers plenty of opportunity with less-than-spectacular stuff. Don’t be surprised if Witt Jr. offers a combo meal with a homer and a steal, and he’s a good bet to reach the over on that 1.5 total.

Nolan Jones : 1.5 Total Bases - Higher (Prizepicks)

Somewhat quietly, Jones has been one of the better rookies in baseball, coming into Wednesday with a slash of .271/.353/.488. He’ll get a chance to place in the friendly confines of Coors Field, and the former Cleveland prospect will also get a chance to face a right-hander who is making his MLB debut in Darius Vines. Jones is hitless in his last three games, and while that makes things a little more nerve-wracking, it also means he’s due for a big game.

Matt Olson: 0.5 RBI - More (Prizepicks)

Olson will be going up against a lefty in Kyle Freeland, and while he is statistically worse against southpaws than he is righties, worse is a subjective term considering he’s posted an .891 OPS with nine homers and 27 RBI over his 125 plate appearances. Add in the fact he’ll be playing in the friendly confines of Coors Field with some elite hitters hitting in front of him, and Olson is as good of a bet for an RBI as any player Wednesday.

Dane Dunning: 4.0 strikeouts - Higher (Underdog)

Dunning has been able to miss bats at much higher rate as of late, with 39 strikeouts over 29.2 innings of work in his five starts thus far in August. The Mets certainly offer a chance for missed bats, and are not exactly in striking distance for a playoff spot. Dunning should be able to hit his mark as long as he can throw enough strikes to do so; something he admittedly struggled with Friday against the Twins.

Brandon Pfaadt : 4.5 Strikeouts - Lower (Underdog)

There’s reason for long-term upside with Pfaadt, as he was one of the best minor-league hurlers in baseball in 2022, and there have been some flashes of brilliance in 2023 despite his ugly 5.91 ERA and 1.36 WHIP over 67 innings during his rookie campaign. Asking him to reach this total is asking him to work deep against the Dodgers, a lineup that is as feared as any in all of baseball. There’s just too much risk on betting overs with Pfaadt against this kind of team.

The Houston Astros have terrorized the Boston Red Sox this week, putting up 19 runs over the last two games, both of which started by two of Boston’s best pitchers, Chris Sale and Brayan Bello.

Sale and Bello kept the games close, giving up three and two earned runs respectively, but the bullpen couldn’t contain Houston’s bats. Jose Altuve hit for the cycle in the first game, and Yordan Álvarez homered in both games, hitting seven for nine over the two nights.

Vlad Jr Could Go Off Wednesday

The Contrarian Edge Optimizer likes the idea of doubling down on the Astros stack -- a lineup that tied a franchise record 66 hits in the last four games -- but there are also alternatives to consider. Specifically, take a look at Toronto and Seattle. Both have excellent matchups today, so let’s take a closer look.

The Blue Jays face off against Patrick Corbin and the Nationals at the Rogers Centre this afternoon. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ($5000) could be poised for a big day. He’s riding a 10-game hitting streak, during which time he's slashing .302/.333/.438 with two home runs.

If you’re looking for some cheaper options to round out your lineup, keep an eye on both Blue Jays catchers. Danny Jansen ($3600) and Alejandro Kirk ($3000) are each available for less than $4000 on Draft Kings and rostering them should allow you a few extra dollars to roster a top tier bat or one of the three best pitchers on today’s card.

Either Santiago Espinal ($2400) or Whit Merrifield ($4400) could offer hits and runs if the Blue Jays put it together. And don’t sleep on George Springer ($4700), who’s been back in the leadoff spot this series and has put together a really nice run with a five-game hitting streak.

No August swoon for Seattle bats

The Mariners bats were momentarily silenced at T-Mobile Park on Tuesday night, but they’ve been red hot this month, leading the team to a 20-6 record in August. They should stack up nicely against Zach Neal, who’s starting for Oakland for the first time since 2016.

The Mariners have been excellent against right-handed pitchers this season, hitting .240/.323/.419 with a team wRC+ of 108 this season. During their hot streak this August, those numbers are even more impressive -- .279/.363/.486 and a wRC+ of 138 against right-handed pitching.

The Optimizer likes Seattle's Teoscar Hernandez ($4500) as one of your outfielders, and you could do worse than supplementing his production with leadoff man JP Crawford ($4300). Third baseman Eugenio Suarez ($4600) offers some nice pop and while you should avoid Julio Rodriguez, who is day-to-day after a late scratch on Tuesday night, Dominic Canzone ($3000) is a very cost-effective option who’s been on a nice run over the last 10 days, hitting .306/.306/.500.

Pitchers to consider

As for pitching, the wind is blowing in at Wrigley Field, and the Brewers' Brandon Woodruff ($10200) has looked every bit like the ace we know he can be since coming back from the injured list. He’s thrown 22.2 innings across four starts with 29 strikeouts, and only the Rangers scored more than two runs against Woodruff since his return.

Another pitcher to consider is the Giants' Logan Webb ($9500), who has gone five or more innings in 18 of 19 starts this season – including a seven-inning start with seven strikeouts against the Reds at Great American Ballpark in July.

Oracle is a much more pitcher-friendly environment, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Webb surpass that strikeout total from July with a free-swinging Reds team that ranks 25th in MLB with a 24.5 percent strikeout rate.

There are 15 MLB games on tap for Tuesday and a ton of opportunities to cash. The Seattle Mariners-Oakland Athletics game is very intriguing on both sides, and the Mariners have been one of the hottest hitting teams in baseball over the last few weeks. Here are tonight’s Underdog and Prizepicks plays for Tuesday’s MLB slate.

Teoscar Hernandez: 1.5 Total Bases - Higher (Underdog)
Hernandez has been excellent against left-handed pitchers and Ken Waldichuk has let up six hits or more in three of his last four starts, and he’s sporting an earned run average over six.

He’s hit the over on one and a half total bases in seven straight games. He’s homered three times in his last three contests. Hernandez is scorching hot hitting the ball in August, and he sits with a .371 batting average this month. Waldichuk has been a weaker pitcher on the road than at home, and tonight’s game is in Seattle.

Ty France: 0.5 Singles - Higher (Underdog)
France has singled in five of his last seven contests, and he hits way better against lefties, hitting .309 against them. France is having one of his better hitting months as he’s batting .284 in August. Waldichuk is more of a groundball pitcher, and France hits over 42 percent when it comes to ground balls. Between the amount of hits Waldichuk has given up lately, his struggles on the road and France having a strong month at the dish, he should be able to get on base this evening.

Ken Waldichuk: 5.5 Hits Allowed - More (Prizepicks)
With Waldichuk giving up at least six hits in a few starts recently, it’s hard to think that he’ll be able to shut down the Mariners who have been the best hitting team by average in the MLB over the last two weeks and third best over the last seven days. Waldichuk has a 7.43 earned run average, and opponents hit .303 against him when he’s starting on the road. Seattle hits .262 against left-handed pitchers which is the 8th highest in the majors.

Jose Altuve: 2.0 Hits+Runs+RBIs - Higher (Underdog)
Altuve has crossed the plate nine times total over his last three games. During that span he hit the ball seven times and produced five RBIs. Altuve hits .335 against right-handed pitchers, and even though Boston Red Sox pitcher Brayan Bello hasn’t given up a ton of runs in his starts recently, he’s allowed six hits or more in five straight starts. Last week in this exact matchup, Bello gave up nine hits against Houston, and since then, Altuve has heated up. Altuve has also been a better hitter on the road than at home, and this game is in Boston.

Manny Machado: 0.5 Singles - Higher (Underdog)
Machado has been reaching base a lot lately. Tonight, he faces St. Louis Cardinals pitcher Zack Thompson who is not only a lefty, but he’s surrendered six hits in both of his last two outings. Machado hits .327 against left-handed pitchers and he’s hit a single in three of his last five games.

Marcus Semien: 0.5 Singles - Higher (Underdog)
Semien hits better against left-handed pitchers than right-handed pitchers. He’s hit singles in four of his last seven games, and the Rangers' bats have woken up a bit in the last week. Semien has a good history against New York Mets pitcher Jose Quintana, hitting the ball six times in 13 at-bats against him. He has the most hits for the Rangers this season.