We’re getting closer and closer to the postseason with just less than two weeks to go in the regular campaign, but there are some fun over/unders to hit with a strong slate available Wednesday.
Hunter Greene, Reds RHP: 7.5 strikeouts - Over (PrizePicks)
Since returning from injury August 20, Greene has only gone over seven strikeouts once -- a nine-punchout game against the Cardinals on September 10. That said, this right-hander has fanned a whopping 129 hitters in just 97 innings and possesses some of the best swing-and-miss stuff in baseball. He’s also going to face a lineup that strikes out with the best of them -- or worst of them? -- and will be without Carlos Correa and Royce Lewis. I like Greene to have a strong outing that sees him show off that ability to miss bats again.
Cal Raleigh, Mariners C: 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI - Higher (Underdog)
The caveat here is you’ll want to make sure Raleigh is in the lineup on a getaway day in the afternoon before making this bet. Assuming he is either behind the plate or lined up as the DH, he makes sense as a play as a middle-of-the-order option that will be squaring off against Joey Estes and the lowly Athletics. It wouldn’t be a shock if Raleigh hit this total with an early two-run homer, but either way, he’s a good bet to be a fantasy contributor as Seattle looks for the sweep and to stay in the hunt for the American League West title.
Bobby Miller, Dodgers RHP: 1.5 runs allowed - Higher (PrizePicks)
Miller has pitched decently in his last few starts and shown the ability to miss bats, and he’ll be facing off against a Detroit lineup that doesn’t exactly strike a lot of fear into the hearts of pitchers. So, while it makes sense for the rookie right-hander to be a usable option, he’s held a lineup under two runs once in his last four starts, and he’s posted a 4.12 ERA thus far in September. That’s not an abhorrent number, and again, picking against Miller has far less to do with the ability he can pitch well, and more to do with the fact that holding a lineup to under two runs is hard. Baseball is hard.
Gunner Henderson, Orioles 3B: 8.0 fantasy points - Over (Underdog)
In the month of September, Henderson has hit .305/.314/.612 with five homers and 15 RBI. In his last eight starts for the Astros, Javier has given up 10 round-trippers while registering a 5.87 ERA over 38.1 innings of work that has seen his ERA balloon up to 4.74. Do I need to say anymore? I don’t think I need to say anymore. There are several quality Baltimore options to think about using in both DFS and in this type of format, but ride the hot hand of Henderson if you can only choose one.
Aaron Civale, Rays RHP: 15.5 pitching outs - Under (Prizepicks)
It’d be understandable if you went in the opposite direction on this one if only because the Los Angeles lineup is not a whole heck of a lot of fun to watch right now. That said, Civale has not pitched six innings since August 16, and that’s the only time he’s hit the over on this total as a member of the Tampa Bay rotation. Even if Civale is efficient -- something he hasn’t been terribly often in 2023 even while putting up solid numbers -- there’s a good chance he’s only going to be on the mound for five innings before giving way to the excellent Rays’ bullpen.
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