September 27, 2023
MLB

Glasnow Is a Risk but Possible Reward

Rays pitcher is due for a bounceback against Red Sox
San Diego Padres' Fernando Tatis Jr

It’s the final Wednesday of the regular season, and one of your final chances to take advantage of a full slate of games. Here’s some over/unders to take a look.

Tyler Glasnow: 7.5 strikeouts vs. Red Sox -- Over (PrizePicks)

This is a little risky, but with risk comes opportunity. Glasnow has pitched ineffectively over his last three starts and has a 5.72 ERA in September in five outings. He’s also registered a 39/9 K/BB over that time, and the last time he faced Boston, he threw six innings of one-run baseball while adding 14 strikeouts for good measure. Glasnow is a good bet to bounce back based on his track record, and the Red Sox lineup offers plenty of chances to miss bats.

Fernando Tatis Jr.: 9.0 total fantasy points vs. Giants -- Over (Underdog)

Tatis Jr. has had a disappointing fantasy season in 2023 -- if only because expectations are so high for one of the most talented players in the sport -- but there have been enough flashes of brilliance to believe in him when the right matchup comes along. That matchup could come Wednesday against a Giants team that was officially eliminated from the postseason on Tuesday against a hurler in Sean Manaea that is likely due for some regression. A combo meal (homer and stolen base) is well within reach, and the fact that Tatis hasn’t gone deep September 15 suggests he’s due for a round-tripper sooner than later.

Alejandro Kirk: 1.5 total bases vs. Yankees -- Lower (PrizePicks)

Even after picking up hits in his last two games, Kirk has really struggled over the month of September. He’s hit just .213 with a paltry OPS of .696, and he’s slashed just .240/.324/.341 against right-handers during his 2023 campaign. Add in the fact that he’ll be facing off against Gerrit Cole -- the presumed 2023 Cy Young winner based on his body of work thus far -- and it’s hard to justify betting on Kirk picking up a pair of bases on Wednesday, with all due respect to the backstop.

Bryce Miller: 90.5 pitches vs. Astros -- Under (Underdog)

Miller has had a strong rookie campaign; making the jump from Double-A and helping stabilize the Mariners’ rotation after the season-ending injuries to Robbie Ray and Marco Gonzales. He also is a pitcher that hasn’t gone over this total often in 2023, with six of his last nine starts seeing him throw fewer than 90 pitches, including his last two. Some of that has to do with efficiency (5.1 scoreless innings against the Dodgers on September 16), and some of it because of some struggles (six runs in 4.1 frames in his last outing) that you see from rookie hurlers. Either way, it’s a good bet that Miller will be out of the game before he reaches the 90-pitch total against Houston Wednesday.

Edouard Julien: 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI vs. Athletics -- Over (PrizePicks)

It’d be nice if this included walks because then it’d be a more obvious play; Julien has drawn seven walks over his last four games but hasn’t picked up a hit since last Wednesday. Considering how good he’s been in 2023 (.821 OPS, 14 homers in 105 games in his rookie campaign), it’s a good bet that the 24-year-old will start to see the hits dropping soon, and the fact he’s going up against the worst team in baseball in the A’s doesn’t hurt for this one, either. I’ll miss picking over/unders against the Athletics in 2023. Pretty good chance they’ll be a team to pick against in 2024, as well. Sorry, Oakland fans.

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Weather Report:

There are only three games on the slate today and none should be impacted by precipitation.

Injury Report:

Jorge Soler - Hip - He left Tuesday’s contest against the Rays with right hip tightness. He is considered day-to-day and could be ready to go against the Nationals.

Lane Thomas - Back - He was lifted prior to the seventh inning due to back soreness. It doesn’t sound serious but there is a chance he sits out Thursday.

Mitch Haniger - Rest - Haniger returned from the injured list on Tuesday and sat out against a righty but the team said it was only due to rest. He should be ready to go on Thursday.

Starting Pitchers (DK-FD)

Spencer Strider: 12,500-12,000

Lance Lynn: 8,800-9,500

Braxton Garrett: 8,200-8,700

Pedro Avila: 6,300-6,700

Joan Adon: 5,400-6,400

Sean Manaea: 5,000-7,300

Spencer Strider is the highest-priced pitcher for the slate, which shouldn’t be surprising. He easily leads the slate with a 2.75 SIERA, 1.06 WHIP, and 38 percent strikeout rate. His 1.06 HR/9 is the highest of his career, without taking the two game appearance in the majors late in 2021 into account. His 60 percent HR/Barrel rate is above league average, which indicates that he could be getting a bit unlucky with the long ball. He faces a tough team in the Dodgers which makes the 12K+ price tag a bit steep.

Strider gets to go toe-to-toe with Lance Lynn in the last game in the slate on Tuesday. To say that Lynn has had an up-and-down season is a bit of an understatement. Lynn has a 3.99 SIERA, 1.38 WHIP, and 26 percent strikeout rate on the season but most of the damage was done while he was a member of the Chicago White Sox. Since joining the Dodgers, he has a 4.30 SIERA, 1.06 WHIP, and 21 percent strikeout rate. He faces a very tough task of facing the Braves in Dodgers Stadium. Since both of these pitchers face uphill battles, going cheap on the pitching while loading up on bats, could work tonight.

Braxton Garrett gets to face the Nationals for the second game in a row. Last time out, he allowed three runs over six innings while only picking up three strikeouts. This time around, he will be in the Nationals home ballpark, which has been below league average when it comes to the long ball, especially with the forecast projecting the winds to be blowing into the ballpark.

Batter to Target

Joan Adon is a pitcher that could be easily exploited in this small slate. His 4.44 SIERA is easily the worst of the group ad Nationals Park is a bit hitter-friendly this season. While the Marlins hitters have struggled in the second of the season Jake Burger ($4,100 on DK and $3,000 on FanDuel) could be an option for fantasy managers looking some cheap power.

Stack Attack

Marlins (Braxton Garrett) vs. Nationals:

DK-FD

Lane Thomas: 4,900-3,200

Keibert Ruiz: 4,000-2,600

Joey Meneses: 4,400-2,700

If Lane Thomas is ready to go on Thursday, he is a must add. The 28-year-old is hitting .346/.393/.591 with eight homers and nine stolen bases against southpaws this season. Ruiz and Meneses also have been above league average against left-handed pitching while hitting towards the top of the Nationals lineup.

Giants (Manaea) vs. Padres:

DK-FD

Ha-Seong Kim: 4,900-3,100

Gary Sanchez: 3,800-2,600

Garrett Cooper: 2,900-2,400

Trent Grisham: 2,800-2,500

The Giants haven’t officially named a starter for Thursday’s contest against the Padres but Sean Manaea figures to fill in as the bulk reliever. Ha-Seong Kim has been out of his mind in the second half of the season, while posting a season long line of .329/.413/.579 with eight homers and ten stolen bases against left-handed pitching. Sánchez and Grisham have also hit above league average against lefties and can be add at some really low prices. Cooper has moved up to sixth in the Padres batting order after Jake Cronenworth landed on the injured list with a fractured wrist. If the Padres bats come to life at the top of the order, you could pick up some RBIs at a considerably low price point.

It’s another full slate of games Wednesday, and there are more than a handful of interesting options to gander over. Colorado-Atlanta provides some intriguing value, but a ‘lesser’ game like Kansas City taking on Pittsburgh also offers intrigue.

Here are tonight’s Underdog and Prizepicks plays for Wednesday’s MLB slate.

Bobby Witt Jr. 1.5 Total Bases - Higher (Underdog)

It’d be hard to overstate just how good the Royals' infielder has been in August, as the young star has hit.327/.379/.626 with eight homers while stealing nine bags and driving in 21 runs even for a weak team. On Wednesday, he’ll go up against the Pirates' Andre Jackson; who pitched decently over his last two starts but offers plenty of opportunity with less-than-spectacular stuff. Don’t be surprised if Witt Jr. offers a combo meal with a homer and a steal, and he’s a good bet to reach the over on that 1.5 total.

Nolan Jones : 1.5 Total Bases - Higher (Prizepicks)

Somewhat quietly, Jones has been one of the better rookies in baseball, coming into Wednesday with a slash of .271/.353/.488. He’ll get a chance to place in the friendly confines of Coors Field, and the former Cleveland prospect will also get a chance to face a right-hander who is making his MLB debut in Darius Vines. Jones is hitless in his last three games, and while that makes things a little more nerve-wracking, it also means he’s due for a big game.

Matt Olson: 0.5 RBI - More (Prizepicks)

Olson will be going up against a lefty in Kyle Freeland, and while he is statistically worse against southpaws than he is righties, worse is a subjective term considering he’s posted an .891 OPS with nine homers and 27 RBI over his 125 plate appearances. Add in the fact he’ll be playing in the friendly confines of Coors Field with some elite hitters hitting in front of him, and Olson is as good of a bet for an RBI as any player Wednesday.

Dane Dunning: 4.0 strikeouts - Higher (Underdog)

Dunning has been able to miss bats at much higher rate as of late, with 39 strikeouts over 29.2 innings of work in his five starts thus far in August. The Mets certainly offer a chance for missed bats, and are not exactly in striking distance for a playoff spot. Dunning should be able to hit his mark as long as he can throw enough strikes to do so; something he admittedly struggled with Friday against the Twins.

Brandon Pfaadt : 4.5 Strikeouts - Lower (Underdog)

There’s reason for long-term upside with Pfaadt, as he was one of the best minor-league hurlers in baseball in 2022, and there have been some flashes of brilliance in 2023 despite his ugly 5.91 ERA and 1.36 WHIP over 67 innings during his rookie campaign. Asking him to reach this total is asking him to work deep against the Dodgers, a lineup that is as feared as any in all of baseball. There’s just too much risk on betting overs with Pfaadt against this kind of team.

The Houston Astros have terrorized the Boston Red Sox this week, putting up 19 runs over the last two games, both of which started by two of Boston’s best pitchers, Chris Sale and Brayan Bello.

Sale and Bello kept the games close, giving up three and two earned runs respectively, but the bullpen couldn’t contain Houston’s bats. Jose Altuve hit for the cycle in the first game, and Yordan Álvarez homered in both games, hitting seven for nine over the two nights.

Vlad Jr Could Go Off Wednesday

The Contrarian Edge Optimizer likes the idea of doubling down on the Astros stack -- a lineup that tied a franchise record 66 hits in the last four games -- but there are also alternatives to consider. Specifically, take a look at Toronto and Seattle. Both have excellent matchups today, so let’s take a closer look.

The Blue Jays face off against Patrick Corbin and the Nationals at the Rogers Centre this afternoon. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ($5000) could be poised for a big day. He’s riding a 10-game hitting streak, during which time he's slashing .302/.333/.438 with two home runs.

If you’re looking for some cheaper options to round out your lineup, keep an eye on both Blue Jays catchers. Danny Jansen ($3600) and Alejandro Kirk ($3000) are each available for less than $4000 on Draft Kings and rostering them should allow you a few extra dollars to roster a top tier bat or one of the three best pitchers on today’s card.

Either Santiago Espinal ($2400) or Whit Merrifield ($4400) could offer hits and runs if the Blue Jays put it together. And don’t sleep on George Springer ($4700), who’s been back in the leadoff spot this series and has put together a really nice run with a five-game hitting streak.

No August swoon for Seattle bats

The Mariners bats were momentarily silenced at T-Mobile Park on Tuesday night, but they’ve been red hot this month, leading the team to a 20-6 record in August. They should stack up nicely against Zach Neal, who’s starting for Oakland for the first time since 2016.

The Mariners have been excellent against right-handed pitchers this season, hitting .240/.323/.419 with a team wRC+ of 108 this season. During their hot streak this August, those numbers are even more impressive -- .279/.363/.486 and a wRC+ of 138 against right-handed pitching.

The Optimizer likes Seattle's Teoscar Hernandez ($4500) as one of your outfielders, and you could do worse than supplementing his production with leadoff man JP Crawford ($4300). Third baseman Eugenio Suarez ($4600) offers some nice pop and while you should avoid Julio Rodriguez, who is day-to-day after a late scratch on Tuesday night, Dominic Canzone ($3000) is a very cost-effective option who’s been on a nice run over the last 10 days, hitting .306/.306/.500.

Pitchers to consider

As for pitching, the wind is blowing in at Wrigley Field, and the Brewers' Brandon Woodruff ($10200) has looked every bit like the ace we know he can be since coming back from the injured list. He’s thrown 22.2 innings across four starts with 29 strikeouts, and only the Rangers scored more than two runs against Woodruff since his return.

Another pitcher to consider is the Giants' Logan Webb ($9500), who has gone five or more innings in 18 of 19 starts this season – including a seven-inning start with seven strikeouts against the Reds at Great American Ballpark in July.

Oracle is a much more pitcher-friendly environment, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Webb surpass that strikeout total from July with a free-swinging Reds team that ranks 25th in MLB with a 24.5 percent strikeout rate.

There are 15 MLB games on tap for Tuesday and a ton of opportunities to cash. The Seattle Mariners-Oakland Athletics game is very intriguing on both sides, and the Mariners have been one of the hottest hitting teams in baseball over the last few weeks. Here are tonight’s Underdog and Prizepicks plays for Tuesday’s MLB slate.

Teoscar Hernandez: 1.5 Total Bases - Higher (Underdog)
Hernandez has been excellent against left-handed pitchers and Ken Waldichuk has let up six hits or more in three of his last four starts, and he’s sporting an earned run average over six.

He’s hit the over on one and a half total bases in seven straight games. He’s homered three times in his last three contests. Hernandez is scorching hot hitting the ball in August, and he sits with a .371 batting average this month. Waldichuk has been a weaker pitcher on the road than at home, and tonight’s game is in Seattle.

Ty France: 0.5 Singles - Higher (Underdog)
France has singled in five of his last seven contests, and he hits way better against lefties, hitting .309 against them. France is having one of his better hitting months as he’s batting .284 in August. Waldichuk is more of a groundball pitcher, and France hits over 42 percent when it comes to ground balls. Between the amount of hits Waldichuk has given up lately, his struggles on the road and France having a strong month at the dish, he should be able to get on base this evening.

Ken Waldichuk: 5.5 Hits Allowed - More (Prizepicks)
With Waldichuk giving up at least six hits in a few starts recently, it’s hard to think that he’ll be able to shut down the Mariners who have been the best hitting team by average in the MLB over the last two weeks and third best over the last seven days. Waldichuk has a 7.43 earned run average, and opponents hit .303 against him when he’s starting on the road. Seattle hits .262 against left-handed pitchers which is the 8th highest in the majors.

Jose Altuve: 2.0 Hits+Runs+RBIs - Higher (Underdog)
Altuve has crossed the plate nine times total over his last three games. During that span he hit the ball seven times and produced five RBIs. Altuve hits .335 against right-handed pitchers, and even though Boston Red Sox pitcher Brayan Bello hasn’t given up a ton of runs in his starts recently, he’s allowed six hits or more in five straight starts. Last week in this exact matchup, Bello gave up nine hits against Houston, and since then, Altuve has heated up. Altuve has also been a better hitter on the road than at home, and this game is in Boston.

Manny Machado: 0.5 Singles - Higher (Underdog)
Machado has been reaching base a lot lately. Tonight, he faces St. Louis Cardinals pitcher Zack Thompson who is not only a lefty, but he’s surrendered six hits in both of his last two outings. Machado hits .327 against left-handed pitchers and he’s hit a single in three of his last five games.

Marcus Semien: 0.5 Singles - Higher (Underdog)
Semien hits better against left-handed pitchers than right-handed pitchers. He’s hit singles in four of his last seven games, and the Rangers' bats have woken up a bit in the last week. Semien has a good history against New York Mets pitcher Jose Quintana, hitting the ball six times in 13 at-bats against him. He has the most hits for the Rangers this season.