Seattle Mariners center fielder Julio Rodriguez (44) celebrates after scoring a run against the Houston Astros on Sept. 26, 2023. (Steven Bisig-USA TODAY Sports)
We’re about to enter the final weekend of the season. It’s been a crazy ride, and we only have a few days left to select our Underdog, and Prizepicks plays from a full slate of games.
The Wild Card races are as hot as ever. The highest stakes matchups are between the Cubs and Braves, with Chicago fighting for an NL Wild Card spot. Meanwhile, in the American League, the Mariners host the West-leading Rangers to kick off a massive 4-game series that may see one of these teams knocked out.
There are plenty of options on Prizepicks and Underdog, but I’ve narrowed down the best picks.
Luke Weaver 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (More) – PrizePicks
Weaver is with his third team this season, and for good reason. He has been terrible since 2020. He has allowed at least three earned runs in 19 of 28 appearances. In two of those 28, he was used as an opener, so realistically, that number is 19 of 26 – a 73% rate. He faces a Blue Jays lineup battling for the final AL Wild Card spot. The Jays bats have struggled this season, but Weaver will also struggle.
Sonny likes it when it’s sunny. His ERA is a miniscule 1.77 in 12 day games, and first pitch is 1:10 pm ET at Target Field. He faces an Athletics lineup that has scored the second-fewest runs in the league over the last month. Gray has gone under this number in six of his last eight starts and has the third-lowest ERA in MLB. The Twins may use this as a tune-up for their postseason campaign and not ask Gray to go deep into the game and risk the over.
Bryce Harper 7.5 Fantasy Score (More) -- PrizePicks
At home, Harper is batting an insane .354 with a 1.083 OPS. He will face Pirates pitcher Luis Ortiz, who has mostly struggled in his young career. He especially has had trouble with left-handed hitters, with opponents batting .340 with a .962 OPS. Harper has gone over this number in five of his last six games.
J.D. Martinez 2 Total Bases (Higher) -- Underdog
If you’ve followed along this month, you understand how easy it is to back the Dodgers. They have one more matchup at Coors Field, so we’re taking the opportunity to back some Dodgers hitters again. They face Chris Flexen, who has been smacked around by righties for a .344 batting average and 1.010 OPS. Martinez is the reigning NL Player of the Week. He’s 9 for 24 at Coors this season with three homers and is 2 for 6 in his career against Flexen.
Mookie Betts 11 Fantasy Points (Higher) -- Underdog
At Coors Field, Flexen has a 5.91 ERA, allowing 37 hits in 32 innings. Eleven fantasy points is wild, but if there’s anyone we should trust to get there, it’s Mookie. He has exceeded this number in three of five games at Coors. The Rockies bullpen is awful with a league-high 5.33 ERA.
Julio Rodriguez 0.5 Runs (More) -- PrizePicks
How do we not back Julio after last night’s drama? I’m opting for a run because he has struggled against Texas. Julio has had more success against left-handed pitching with a .313 batting average, and he will face Jordan Montgomery, who he is 1 for 3 against with a double.
Over the last month, J-Rod has scored the 10th most runs in MLB, and that number stays the same in divisional games, scoring the 10th most against divisional opponents. The Mariners are fighting for their playoff lives.
Wednesday is a packed day of playoff baseball with three league division series games and two teams facing elimination.
The Orioles were eliminated Tuesday by a Rangers team that has been streaky all season and hit a hot streak at the right time. The Dodgers (down 2-0 to the Diamondbacks) and the Twins (down 1-2 to the Astros) could join the Orioles on the outside looking in. Let’s take a closer look at the Daily Fantasy options.
Pitcher Options
There aren’t that many options for stacking pitchers and the Braves are complicating that situation by not committing to who they’re starting. I’ll go with Aaron Nola ($9600/$10100), who has been up and down but brings the highest floor of any starter tonight.
Nola had a quality start in the Wild Card round with seven scoreless innings and, while the strikeouts weren’t there, they were in his last two starts of the regular season.
I’ll pair Nola with Brandon Pfaadt ($7500), who is a contrarian play. I’m looking for upside and value from Pfaadt, who has struggled at times in his rookie campaign and in his last time against the Brewers. But he’s got strikeout potential and did close the season with two of three strong starts, going five-plus scoreless innings against both the North and South side of Chicago.
Hitter Stacks
For batters, I expect big run totals in all of the games, so there are lots of options for good stacks.
My favorite option is the Philadelphia Phillies, who will be playing in front of their home crowd, and Citizens Bank Park should be rocking. J.T. Realmuto ($4200/$3300) has been hot this postseason with a wRC+ of 208 while slashing .333/.375/.800. Pair him with one of these hitters:
Bryce Harper ($5200/$4100), who walked 29.4% this postseason while slashing .333/.529/.583
Trea Turner ($5400/$3800), who is slashing .375/.412/.563 with a wRC+ of 164
Bryson Stott ($3700/$3300), who has seven RBI this postseason while slashing .357/.375/.571
I’ll also try to build a lineup including Kyle Schwarber ($4400/$3700). Although the Phillies’ big leadoff man hasn’t gotten it going this October, he has walked in 11.8% of his plate appearances and it’s just a matter of time before he hits a bomb.
It should be a great evening of playoff baseball no matter who you are stacking. With all of the teams pretty deep into their rotations and a couple of teams in must-win situations it feels like a great day to bet the over.
*All dollar values are courtesy of DraftKings/FanDuel.
There are three playoff games Wednesday, with plenty of chances for fun over/under plays as we march towards the League Championship Series in the American League and National League.
Aaron Nola, Phillies RHP: 5 strikeouts vs. Atlanta - Over (Underdog)
The starting pitching options aren’t great Wednesday, but Nola is the best and gave up one run in seven innings against the Marlins in his last outing. He only struck out three, but that has more to do with the aggressiveness of the Miami lineup. Even against a loaded Atlanta lineup, there’s a very good chance Nola will strike out more than five in Game 3.
Joe Ryan, Twins RHP: 4 strikeouts vs. Astros - Under (PrizePicks)
This is a low total and is more of a bet of Ryan not going long innings. He had a 5.22 ERA in the second half of the season and allowed 32 homers in 29 starts (162 innings) overall. He’ll face strong Houston hitters like Yordan Alvarez and Alex Bregman and there’s a strong chance this will be a short outing for Ryan in a game Minnesota must win to keep its season going.
Freddie Freeman, Dodgers: 2.0 total bases vs. Diamondbacks - Higher (Underdog)
The Dodgers haven’t gotten anything going in their first two games of the postseason and need a win Wednesday to survive. Freeman only got on base three times in the first two games, but the last time he faced Brandon Pfaadt -- the D-backs’ Game 3 starter -- he went 2-for-4 with a homer.
A double and a walk will hit this total for those who bet the under, and we’ve seen Freeman reach that result (or better) throughout the 2023 campaign. Look for the 2020 MVP to have a big game against Pfaadt and the Arizona pitching staff.
Would anyone be shocked if Alvarez reached this total by himself? The left-handed slugger has been sensational in the first three games of this series with four HRs and a .500/.538/1.667 slash, and we already mentioned Ryan’s struggles. The fact that you get another player with Alvarez makes this a relatively easy over in a game that will see plenty of runs scored by both teams.
Lance Lynn, Dodgers RHP: 19.5 fantasy points: Over (Underdog)
Let’s preface this with the fact that I’ve picked against Arizona in all four postseason games and obviously have not been correct. You’re welcome, Diamondbacks fans, and I’ve been nothing but impressed with what I’ve seen over this first week-plus of playoff baseball.
Having said that, I’m going with Lynn, who showed zero consistency in 2023 but had enough flashes of brilliance to suggest he can start strong in a survival game. The Diamondbacks surely will regress soon, and I’ll bet (again) on that taking place Wednesday.
Tiers can help fantasy managers determine exactly when it’s time to take the player they’re looking at. If you’re torn between a shooting guard and a center and the center you’re looking at is a Tier 2 player, while the SG is a Tier 1 player, we’d recommend taking the SG. Players with similar values are grouped in tiers together, so getting the higher-tiered player is the way to go in most cases. Here are our center tiers.
Tier 1
Nikola Jokic
The undisputed No. 1 pick in every format.
Tier 2
Joel Embiid
Will be the MVP if he can play in 68 games.
Tier 3
Domantas Sabonis
Bam Adebayo
Myles Turner
Unheralded studs.
Tier 4
Alperen Sengun
Evan Mobley
Nikola Vucevic
Walker Kessler
Nicolas Claxton
Breakout candidates galore.
Tier 5
Chet Holmgren
Jarrett Allen
Deandre Ayton
Brook Lopez
Rudy Gobert
Tried and true with some Chet thrown in for good measure.
Tier 6
Mark Williams
Jakob Poeltl
Onyeka Okongwu
Robert Williams
Jusuf Nurkic
Zach Collins
Who doesn’t love Mark Williams? Okongwu is a breakout candidate and Collins is wildly underappreciated.
Tiers can help fantasy managers determine exactly when it’s time to take the player they’re looking at. If you’re torn between a shooting guard and a center and the center you’re looking at is a Tier 2 player, while the SG is a Tier 1 player, we’d recommend taking the SG. Players with similar values are grouped in tiers together, so getting the higher-tiered player is the way to go in most cases. Here are our Power Forward Tiers.
Tier 1
Giannis Antetokounmpo
If he ever starts hitting free throws and 3-pointers, look out.
Tier 2
Jaren Jackson Jr.
Does everything well and should thrive while Ja Morant is suspended for 25 games.
Tier 3
Karl-Anthony Towns
Anthony Davis
Lauri Markkanen
Markkanen broke out last year, while KAT and AD would be monsters if they can stay healthy.
Tier 4
Victor Wembanyama
Pascal Siakam
Kristaps Porzingis
Julius Randle
Kyle Kuzma
Zion Williamson
Paolo Banchero
Kyle Kuzma
Wendell Carter
Wembanyama is either going to go boom or bust and the rest of these guys are all rock solid.
Tier 5
Draymond Green
Danniel Gafford
John Collins
Jabari Smith
Tobias Harris
Jerami Grant
Aaron Gordon
Jalen Duren
Keegan Murray
Ben Simmons
Jaden McDaniels
P.J. Washington
Collins is looking for a boost in his new uniform and Jabari Smith and Keegan Murray are looking to take a big step forward. Will Ben Simmons show up this year?
Tier 6
Bobby Portis
Paul Reed
Christian Wood
Al Horford
Obi Toppin
Harrison Barnes
Grant Williams
Wood, Toppin and Williams could all be fun at some point this season.
Tier 7
Taylor Hendricks
Kelly Olynyk
Kevon Looney
Nick Richards
Moe Wagner
Isaiah Stewart
Jalen Johnson
Rui Hachimura
Naz Reid
We may be sleeping on Olynyk.
Tier 8
Nikola Jovic
Jarred Vanderbilt
Trayce Jackson-Davis
Jaxson Hayes
Vanderbilt is a better player than his ranking indicates.
For the second straight week, we had a 3-0 sweep in this weekly ‘Vegas Lines’ article. I feel like the Las Vegas Aces vs the Dallas Wings. The ‘Close Your Eyes Special’ has moved to 5-0 ATS this season as the New Orleans Saints and the Pittsburgh Steelers both got outright wins. And the “Petty Bowl” was everything as advertised as the New York Jets and Denver Broncos went over the total.
In Week 6, here are the lines I am looking into:
‘Close Your Eyes Special’ – Washington Commanders +2.5 @ Atlanta Falcons
Some did not believe it when they saw me take the Seattle Seahawks at +5.5 after the Detroit Lions upset the Kansas City Chiefs. Others did not believe it when they saw me take the Washington Commanders at +9 vs the red-hot Philadelphia Eagles. All I have to say now is, “Do you believe now?!” (Deion Sanders’ voice).
The Commanders are back as a ‘Close Your Eyes Special’ after losing 40-20 to the Chicago Bears on Thursday Night Football as six-point favorites. Meanwhile, the Atlanta Falcons battled back for their second straight comeback win at home vs the Houston Texans.
Desmond Ridder threw for 300 passing yards for the first time in his career as he moved to 5-0 at home. As a matter a fact, Ridder has not lost a home game since high school. But all good things must end.
Eric Bienemy left the Chiefs after last season because wanted to step out of Andy Reid’s shadow as an offensive coordinator and play-caller. And thus far with Washington it has been up and down. Thursday night was the third time the Commanders failed to score over 20 points after topping 30 in two of the three previous games.
Washington head coach Ron Rivera has been very good as an underdog as we noted for the Eagles game. He is 16-9 ATS (64%) as an underdog of less than three points. He is also 34-25-1 ATS (57.6%) as a road underdog.
This should be a nice bounce-back spot for Sam Howell, who has not had back-to-back games with an interception. Look for Washington get their offense going against a pesky Falcons defense.
‘Close Your Eyes Special’— New England Patriots +3 @ Las Vegas Raiders
You’ve got to love matchups between head coach and former assistant. Bill Belichick vs Josh McDaniels has the making of a ‘Petty Bowl II’. The Raiders will be coming off a short week after a Monday home win against the Green Bay Packers. The Patriots are back as part of another ‘Close Your Eyes Special’ after they got decimated by the New Orleans Saints at home (we had the Saints last week if you missed it).
There is not much to like about the Patriots in this matchup. Mac Jones looks horrible. The defense lost two of their best stars in Matthew Judon and Christian Gonzalez. The fans are calling for BOTH of Bill Belichick’s jobs.
Luckily, the Patriots face a Raiders defense that is giving up a lot of big plays in the passing game. The Raiders have given up a 40-yard completion in four straight games, which should benefit Jones. The run game should also benefit Jones as the Raiders are giving up the ninth-most rushing yards to running backs.
The Raiders’ offense has still yet to score over 18 points in a game. I expect the Patriots to do enough to get the win.
San Francisco 49ers @ Cleveland Browns Total: 38
Here is where we check in with our local meteorologist. We are expecting bad weather, with the current forecast calling for 50-degree weather with rain and close to 20 mph winds.
If anyone remembers the 49ers-Bears in Week 1 last season, you can see why this total is interesting. Windy game unders are a typically good betting trend regardless of what team is playing. Now, imagine having two of the best defenses in the NFL squaring off.
Browns DC Jim Schwartz says he likes his defensive backs against anybody. He calls a lot of man coverage and trusts them to hold their own while creating havoc around the line of scrimmage.
In a game where both teams are going to try to keep the ball on the ground, I expect to see him dial up a defensive front that can give even the great Christian McCaffrey some problems.
On the other side, the Browns really will miss Nick Chubb. The 49ers’ front seven is the best in the league and will make it tough for Cleveland RBs Jerome Ford or Pierre Strong. Drives will stall on both sides, making this an ugly game.
We have already lost a couple of points on the total in this one but I really do not foresee either team doing enough to make it close to the over.
Tiers can help fantasy managers determine exactly when it’s time to take the player they’re looking at. If you’re torn between a shooting guard and a center and the center you’re looking at is a Tier 2 player, while the SG is a Tier 1 player, we’d recommend taking the SG. Players with similar values are grouped in tiers together, so getting the higher-tiered player is the way to go in most cases. Here are our shooting guard tiers.
Tier 1
Anthony Edwards
We sense a full breakout coming from one of the league’s up-and-coming superstars.
Tier 2
Donovan Mitchell
James Harden
Mikal Bridges
You can’t go wrong with any of these players.
Tier 3
Jimmy Butler
Dejounte Murray
Desmond Bane
Jaylen Brown
Zach LaVine
Paul George
Jordan Poole
DeMar DeRozan
Jalen Williams
Solid shooting guards and Jalen Williams could end up being the best of the bunch.
It’s that point in the season where 0-5 or 1-4 teams need to change their strategy. If that’s you, this week’s waiver wire is especially important. You can’t afford another loss so the usual waiver wire math goes out the window. You have to buy wins sometimes.
I’m not talking about bribing your teammates with cash to trade you CMC. Or wiring money to Sleeper or ESPN or Yahoo to change the L to a W. I’m talking about overspending on players to secure them on your team. I’m talking about adding players for a single week because of a killer matchup. I’m talking about paying up for the RB who will only be the starter for one game.
Wins are everything in fantasy football (besides the friends we made along the way) and if you’re still searching for your first, it’s time to adjust your strategy. Be aggressive on the wire and look at your season in one-week windows.
Wide Receivers
K.J. Osborn, Vikings, (17% Rostered)
Vikings WR Justin Jefferson will be placed on IR and will miss at least four weeks. With Jefferson going down in the fourth quarter, we saw both rookie wide receivers Jordan Addison and Osborn step up, receiving nine targets apiece.
While the output may have been underwhelming from Osborn in Week 5, the volume he saw from QB Kirk Cousins is promising. With Jefferson sidelined, Osborn should continue to see higher volume. Think of him as a WR3 until Jefferson returns.
Josh Reynolds, Lions, (52% Rostered)
While inconsistent, Reynolds is a vital piece of the passing game. In Week 5 against Carolina, he led Detroit in receiving yards and hauled in a TD in the absence of Amon-Ra St. Brown.
Reynolds is a legitimate start option each week if St. Brown continues to miss time. With St. Brown back, Reynolds becomes less reliable but can still be started as a WR4 with serious upside.
Curtis Samuel, Commanders, (28% Rostered)
If WR12 and WR14 in back-to-back weeks sounds pretty good, great news! Samuel just accomplished that and is most likely sitting on your waiver wire just waiting to be picked up.
With an uptick in usage as the season progresses and growing rapport with quarterback Sam Howell, Samuel should be rostered in all leagues and can be started as a WR3/4 through the next few weeks as Washington has a friendly schedule.
Underperforming Rookies
Each year we see rookie wide receivers start slowly and then have huge second halves of the season. We’re approaching the halfway point of the fantasy year, so it’s time to start adding some of these high-upside rookies to your bench. These are guys like Christian Watson in 2022, Amon-Ra St. Brown in 2021 and A.J. Brown in 2019.
The guys below could have a second half breakout and could be vital pieces to a championship roster. Put them on your bench and see if these rookies earn an increased role over the next couple of weeks.
Quentin Johnston (54% Rostered)
Marvin Mims (41% Rostered)
Josh Downs (26% Rostered)
Jayden Reed (39% Rostered)
Jonathan Mingo (21% Rostered)
Running Backs
Roschon Johnson, Bears, (52% Rostered)
After a big Week 1, Johnson has been disappointing for anyone looking to start him in fantasy, but the rookie could get a big workload with Khalil Herbert out multiple weeks.
Johnson does need to clear concussion protocol before Sunday, but barring any unexpected setbacks he should suit up. The Bears just added Darrynton Evans on top of D’Onta Foreman and an injured Travis Homer, but Johnson seems to have earned the No. 2 role after Herbert.
Johnson will have first crack at being lead back in an offense coming off two good weeks. Starting RBs are hard to find on the waiver wire but you’ve got one for at least a couple of weeks here.
Emari Demercado, Cardinals (2% Rostered)
With James Conner suffering a knee injury, undrafted free agent rookie Demercado led the backfield Sunday to decent success. He had been seeing more involvement in recent weeks and Sunday had 45 yards on 10 carries and a touchdown.
Conner likely will be miss some time, according to coach Jonathan Gannon. Thus, Demercado can be started against the Rams even with the Cardinals adding Tony Jones Jr.. If Conner somehow does play, Demercado is relegated to a backup RB on your bench.
Tyjae Spears, Titans (36% Rostered)
You should have done it last week. And honestly you should have done it the week before that. When a team with Derrick Henry is giving significant snaps and touches to a running back not named Derrick Henry, you pay attention.
Spears scored his first touchdown of his rookie campaign Sunday and looked good doing it. While his seven carries and five targets isn’t anything to write home about, it shows how Tennessee values Spears and their commitment to getting him involved.
Look for Spears’ touches to continue to rise as the season goes on. If Henry were to miss anytime, Spears appears to be one of the best backups in the league for fantasy.
Tight Ends
Dalton Schultz, Texans (45% Rostered)
Sometimes all you need from a tight end is a touchdown and you’re happy. Schultz has given that to you two weeks in a row, including 10 targets for seven receptions and 65 yards in Week 5.
Texans QB C.J. Stroud has been electric, supporting an entire cast of fantasy-relevant options. While Schultz is late to the party compared to Tank Dell and Nico Collins, Stroud may continue to lean on his TE and go back to him in the end zone.
Consistency might continue to be an issue with the Houston receiving options, but you can do much worse at a position where all you need is 10 points to be a top 12 option most weeks.
Logan Thomas, Commanders (20% Rostered)
Outside of the brief stint in the concussion protocol following Week 2, Logan Thomas has been a relatively consistent option. Thomas has finished top 12 n three of four games and in Week 5 had 11 targets in a game where Howell had to throw the ball 51 times.
While the passing volume cannot be expected to be that high week in and week out, Thomas has established himself as a reliable option for Howell. Thomas is the perfect matchup play at TE with the upside of turning in a top 5 week.
Quarterbacks
Sam Howell, Commanders (55% Rostered)
Coming off a 388-yard passing performance, Howell will be a hot commodity on the waiver wire entering bye weeks. With Atlanta, the Giants, and Philadelphia in the coming three weeks, you should be able to continue riding with Howell.
We’ve seen the downside of Howell -- four interceptions, no touchdowns, and less than 200 passing yards against the Bills in Week 3. But we’ve also seen the Commanders let him air it out -- 51 attempts in their Week 5 loss to the Bears.
With the receiving trio of Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson, and Curtis Samuel (not to mention Logan Thomas), Howell has the weapons to continue this success and will likely find himself in more negative game scripts like the ones the Commanders faced Sunday.
Matthew Stafford, Rams (55% Rostered)
Turns out Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua can be good at the same time. That’s great news for Stafford now that his No. 1 WR is back. And great news for fantasy managers looking for a QB on the waiver wire.
Stafford has yet to have that huge week, but this is a team that wants to throw the ball. The Rams have the second-most pass attempts in the league, behind only the Minnesota Vikings. With Kupp back and good matchups against the Cardinals and Steelers in the next two weeks, Stafford should be rostered in most leagues and can be trusted as a starter.
The junior circuit steps into the spotlight Tuesday evening with a pair of intriguing matchups that offer plenty of intrigue for fantasy managers. It’ll be the Rangers aiming to break out the brooms and sweep a back-and-forth slugfest of a series against the Orioles, while the Astros and Twins will wrestle for control of their respective best-of-five series in a pivotal Game 3 in Minnesota.
Schedule
Houston Astros at Minnesota Twins, ALDS Game 3, 4:07 p.m. ET
Baltimore Orioles at Texas Rangers, ALDS Game 3, 8:03 p.m. ET
Weather Report
There are no weather concerns for either contest and the lone outdoor contest in Minnesota will feature unseasonably warm temperatures in the mid-50’s.
Injury Report
None
Top Priced Starting Pitchers (DraftKings)
Sonny Gray (MIN) $9,000
Nathan Eovaldi (TEX) $8,800
Cristian Javier (HOU) $7,300
Dean Kremer (BAL) $6,900
Gray and Eovaldi are easily the top options. Gray tossed five shutout innings against the Blue Jays in his first outing of the postseason after finishing the regular season as one of the top pitchers in the American League, especially from a run-prevention standpoint.
Meanwhile, Eovaldi's postseason success continued Wednesday with an eight-strikeout gem against the Rays to propel the Rangers to a Wild Card Series upset win. The 33-year-old veteran right-hander boasts a pristine 2.90 ERA and 49/8 K/BB ratio across 49 2/3 innings (12 appearances, seven starts) in the playoffs dating back to 2018.
Sneaky Option
Cristian Javier, Astros RHP, at Twins: $7,300
We’ve witnessed it before in the postseason from Javier, so it wouldn’t be shocking at all to see him spin a gem on the road in Minnesota. The 26-year-old right-hander, who has yet to make an appearance this postseason, holds a stellar 2.20 ERA and 48/16 K/BB ratio across 32 2/3 innings (14 appearances, two starts) in the postseason since 2020. Minnesota's lineup has been sizzling hot in the playoffs, but they're also incredibly strikeout prone, which could set up Javier to succeed.
Stack Attack
Rangers vs. Orioles (RHP Dean Kremer)
Kremer was a serviceable back-end starter for the Orioles during the regular season but has been thrust into a more prominent role in the postseason following an injury to veteran southpaw John Means. The 27-year-old righty posted a pedestrian 4.12 ERA, 1.31 WHIP and 157/55 K/BB ratio across 172 2/3 innings (32 starts) this season and also gave up 27 homers during that span.
If there's a pitcher to stack against Tuesday, it's Kremer by a considerable margin. Obviously, Marcus Semien, Corey Seager and Adolis García are the most notable names to consider, but Robbie Grossman, Evan Carter and Mitch Garver should also be under consideration for stacking purposes as well.
An optimizer is a powerful tool for DFS, capable of bulk operations in an instant that would otherwise take hours of manipulation to perform manually. But we must first learn how to wield an optimizer to realize its true power.
That’s what we are trying to do in this weekly series. We’ll focus on Contrarian Edge Optimizer use at Fantasy Sports Logic for every Monday Night Football game this season to explore the tool itself, maximize expected value through optimal utilization, and provide a sneak peek into the newest and most dynamic optimizer in the industry.
First Run
Running the Contrarian Edge Optimizer without altering anything is always a good idea to see where the varying projections systems are leading rosters for the Packers-Raiders game on Monday night. Almost unanimously, you’ll see a high emphasis on the primary Raiders pieces (Davante Adams, Josh Jacobs, and Jimmy Garoppolo), followed by Packers Jordan Love and Christian Watson. That gives us a solid starting point to guide our discussion. Austin Hooper is also projecting well as the player with the lowest price who also carries a numerical projection on the slate.
MNF Theory
The game between the Raiders and Packers pits one extremely concentrated offense with a middling defense (Las Vegas) against a relatively concentrated offense with a middling defense (Green Bay). As such, expect the kickers and defenses to go relatively under-owned with a high emphasis on the offensive pieces of each offense. And while that is the likeliest scenario in a spot like this, rosters that include either defense and/or one, or both, kickers are going to be solid leverage opportunities. In other words, the ownership on those pieces is likely going to be lower than the chances of them contributing to the optimal roster.
There are also numerous spots where ownership might come in lower than it otherwise would considering injury uncertainty, with Davante Adams, Aaron Jones, and Christian Watson either coming in questionable (Adams and Jones) or bringing uncertainty surrounding their expected snap rates as they work their way back from extended absences (Jones and Watson). Watson’s snap rate is likely to directly influence his projection and the projection of Romeo Doubs, and an “either or” stance is likely a good idea in this spot.
Practical Application
With so much uncertainty heading into the slate, it’s best to sort out your intended captains and run the optimizer with certain hard guidelines in place. For example, some of the rules that will guide those runs on this slate are:
Exclude Christian Watson on roster containing Romeo Doubs, and vice versa. This is especially true on rosters that contain either in the captain slot.
Any roster with either quarterback at captain must include two pass-catchers from that team.
Rosters with neither quarterback must include two (or more) running backs.
Rosters with a kicker, boost the opposing defense.
Boost Aaron Jones on rosters without Jordan Love.
Reduce Dontayvion Wicks and boost Josiah Deguara.
Edit Blend
One of the aspects of the optimizer that we haven’t discussed is the ability to edit the blend of the seven projections machines that are utilized by the Contrarian Edge Optimizer away from an even 14 percent split. On the top header, select “Edit Blend” and input the desired emphasis. While I don’t recommend altering these values on main slates, it can be invaluable for smaller slates and showdowns to leverage the varying projection systems from around the industry.
Max/Min Exposure
Feeling higher or lower on a specific player than the projections? Simply alter the max or min exposure thresholds for the optimizer, which will force varying builds away from the chalk. We can be as restricting as we want in this process, with the ability to restrict the optimizer down to a narrow band within two to three percent.
Tiers can help fantasy managers determine exactly when it’s time to take the player they’re looking at. If you’re torn between a shooting guard and a center and the center you’re looking at is a Tier 2 player, while the SG is a Tier 1 player, we’d recommend taking the SG. Players with similar values are grouped in tiers together, so getting the higher-tiered player is the way to go in most cases. Here are our Point Guard Tiers.
Tier 1
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Tyrese Haliburton
Luka Doncic
These guys are why you want a Top 5 pick in your fantasy draft.
Tier 2
Stephen Curry
Damian Lillard
LaMelo Ball
Rock steady first-round players.
Tier 3
Trae Young
Devin Booker
Kyrie Irving
We’re all expecting a Trae Young bounce-back and Devin Booker could be a beast.
Tier 4 is stacked with talent and they’re all going to be very solid fantasy options this season.
Tier 5
Jrue Holiday
Jamal Murray
Josh Giddey
Anfernee Simons
Scottie Barnes
Tyrese Maxey
You can’t go wrong with any of these Tier 5 players.
Tier 6
Ja Morant
Tyler Herro
Tyus Jones
Markelle Fultz
Scoot Henderson
Marcus Smart
Tre Jones
Can you wait for Ja Morant for 25 games? It may be worth it. The Jones bros are going to be quality value for where they’ll be drafted.
Tier 7
Chris Paul
Immanuel Quickley
De’Anthony Melton
Dennis Schroder
Amen Thompson
D’Angelo Russell
Spencer Dinwiddie
Russell Westbrook
Tier 7 will contribute across the board in fantasy, Schroder could run the show all season in Toronto and Thompson could win Rookie of the Year if the stars align.
Tier 8
Mike Conley
Malcolm Brogdon
Cameron Payne
T.J. McConnell
Jevon Carter
Deeper league point guards or back-up insurance for your starters.
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