October 2, 2023
MLB

MLB Wild Card Preview: Expect Surprises

Twins-Blue Jays, Rays-Rangers, Brewers-D-backs, Phils-Marlins begin Tuesday
Philadelphia Phillies designated hitter Bryce Harper (3) runs the bases after hitting a home run on Sept.27, 2023. (Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports)

The regular season is over, and now we turn our eyes to something that can warm even the coldest of hearts: the MLB playoffs. All four Wild Card series – with best-of-3 formats -- begin Tuesday, and while there are clear favorites, there are always surprises. It’s unlikely 2023 will be an exception.

American League

Minnesota Twins vs. Toronto Blue Jays

  • DraftKings odds: Twins -125, Blue Jays +105
  • Regular season head to head: Twins 3, Blue Jays 3

Minnesota was unchallenged in the second half of the AL Central, and that has as much to do with how atrocious the division was -- if not more so -- than how well the Twins played.

That said, Minnesota has one of the more intriguing lineups, ranking 10th in runs scored and seventh in slugging percentage despite hitting just .243 over their 162 games.

The calling card is their starting pitching. No team had more quality starts (76), and hurlers like Sonny Gray, Pablo Lopez and Kenta Maeda give the Twins quality and quantity in their rotation. The bullpen has more question marks, but arms like Jhoan Duran, Emilio Pagan and Griffin Jax give them a solid core.

Toronto’s strength is also the starting pitching, which is all the more impressive when you consider the disastrous season that Alek Manoah -- a legitimate Cy Young candidate in 2022 -- “achieved” this summer. Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt and Jose Berrios were all strong options for the Blue Jays in their respective campaigns, and southpaws Yusei Kikuchi and Hyun Jin Ryu gave Toronto solid depth in the backend.

Like Minnesota, the bullpen isn’t as strong as the starting five, but Jordan Romano remains one of the better closers in baseball while set-up arms like Erik Swanson, Yimi Garcia, and Tim Mayza are capable enough to get the ball to Romano in the ninth.

Despite big names in their lineup, the Toronto offense has disappointed. Bo Bichette had a.306/.339/.475 slash line, but Vladimir Guerrero Jr., George Springer, Matt Chapman and Alejandro Kirk didn’t live up to expectations. The talent in the lineup is apparent based on their success in previous seasons, but Toronto was tied for 14th in runs and was carried by their pitching to win the final Wild Card spot.

Prediction: It’s understandable why the Twins are favorites. They have home field advantage, more depth and maybe extra motivation after last year’s quick exit. This should be a good one, but I’ll go Blue Jays in 3.

Rays vs. Rangers
  • DraftKings odds: Rays -155, Rangers +130
  • Regular season results: Rangers 4, Rays 2

Few offenses have been better than the Rays’, as they ranked fourth in runs scored (860), on-base percentage (.331) and slugging percentage (.445). Tampa Bay is famous for their platoon splits that frustrate fantasy managers, but Yandy Diaz won the batting title at .330 with a .933 OPS. Randy Arozarena, Isaac Paredes, Josh Lowe and Harold Ramirez -- just to name a few -- all had quality campaigns.

The Rays’ pitching is pretty darn good, too, even with season-ending injuries to pitchers Shane McClanahan and Drew Rasmussen -- arms that would pitch at the top of many rotations. Zack Eflin was one of the best signings of the winter, while Tyler Glasnow returned from injury to strike out 162 hitters over 120 innings.

As usual, the Rays also have one of the best bullpens -- although the team did lose Jason Adam to injury recently -- with hurlers like Pete Fairbanks, Colin Poche and Robert Stephenson leading a deep group.

The Texas Rangers might have the best middle infield in baseball, with Marcus Semien and Corey Seager putting up star performances and more than living up to their lavish contracts. There’s plenty of offensive depth here beyond those stars, with Adolis Garcia mashing 39 homers, Josh Jung enjoying a strong rookie campaign with 23 round-trippers and a solid .781 OPS, and the recent addition of top prospect Evan Carter to the lineup (.306/.413/.645 in 62 at-bats).

The pitching doesn’t compare to the offensive talent, and starters Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer and Jon Gray were injured, but Scherzer and Gray could pitch in the postseason if Texas advances past this round.

Nathan Eovaldi and Jordan Montgomery are no slouches, but the loss of those arms on top of a bullpen that has scuffled mightily over the past month-plus makes this the weakest pitching staff still playing in the American League. If this leads to a pair of 1-0 wins for Texas over the week, I can only apologize.

Prediction: Tampa Bay will get at least two games at home, and no team in the American League was better in their own confines -- 53-28 at Tropicana Field. The Rangers were mediocre on the road (40-41), and the mediocre pitching staff doesn’t inspire confidence. As much as I love the Texas lineup, the home field advantage along with the pitching problems seems too tough to overcome. Rays in 3.

National League

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks

  • DraftKings odds: Brewers -170, Diamondbacks +145
  • Regular season results: Diamondbacks 4, Brewers 2

Milwaukee spent 122 days in first place and played .600 baseball in the second half of the season. The Brew Crew led MLB in ERA (3.71) and batting average against (.226), and ranked second in WHIP (1.19). Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff and Freddy Peralta gives the Brewers as good of a postseason rotation as there is, and Milwaukee can also turn to reliable southpaw Wade Miley if/when they’re able to advance to the NLDS.

Devin Williams is more than capable of closing, with 36 saves and a 1.53 ERA over 61 appearances. Uber-talented rookie Abner Uribe and pen mates Joel Payamps, Bryse Wilson and Hoby Milner give the Brewers a great chance of holding leads.

But can Milwaukee score enough in October? The Brewers ranked 17th in runs scored with a paltry .240 average and .385 slugging percentage, among the worst in the National League. William Contreras and Christian Yelich had strong seasons and there are talented young players like Garrett Mitchell and Sal Frelick in the outfield. Milwaukee will have to pitch its way through the postseason.

The Diamondbacks backed their way into the final playoff spot – losing the final four games of the regular season – but they deserve credit for reaching the postseason just two years after losing 110 games.

It’s a team sport, but Arizona owes much of its success to star rookie outfielder Corbin Carroll and his 25 homers, 54 stolen bases and 5.4 WAR. Arizona has other thumpers as well. Christian Walker had 33 HRs and an .830 OPS, Ketel Marte rebounding from his disappointing 2022 with 25 homers and an .844 OPS and Lourdes Gurriel drove in 82 runs while going deep 24 times in his first year with the D-Backs.

Arizona and Milwaukee match up evenly in terms of the lineup, but pitching is a mismatch. The Diamondbacks will have ace Zac Gallen on regular rest for Game 2 with Merrill Kelly another solid option for Game 3 if necessary, but the rest of the staff leaves a lot to be desired. The deadline addition of Paul Sewald did help solidify the closing role, but the rest of the bullpen has major question marks. There’s a reason Arizona ranked at or near the bottom third in baseball in ERA (4.48), WHIP (1.32) and batting average against (.251).

Prediction: Weird things happen in the postseason, but both NL series seem like mismatches. I can see Gallen perhaps stealing a game for the D-Backs, but the Milwaukee pitching staff is too good to pick against in this one, with all due respect to a very talented young baseball team. Brewers in 2.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins

  • DraftKings odds: Phillies -170, Marlins +155
  • Regular season results: Marlins 7, Phillies 6

How they got here: The Phillies never challenged for the division title, but that has more to do with how well Atlanta played than anything Philadelphia “did wrong.” After missing the first month-plus of the season, Bryce Harper was excellent with a .900 OPS while adding 21 homers despite getting just 457 at-bats.

  • Trea Turner scuffled to begin his first season with the defending NL champs but rebounded late to put up 26 round-trippers and steal 30 bases.
  • Kyle Schwarber proved batting average didn’t matter as he went deep 47 times with a solid .347 on-base percentage despite just a .197 batting mark.
  • Bryson Stott led Philadelphia in WAR at 4.4 with excellent defense at second base along with 15 homers and 31 stolen bases.

The Phillies have the most complete lineup on the National League side of the Wild Card series. The pitching isn’t bad, either, but does offer a few more question marks.

Zack Wheeler had another solid campaign, and Taijuan Walker, Ranger Suarez and Cristopher Sanchez were good enough, even with Aaron Nola having his worst season. The bullpen also is in better shape for October, with the return of Jose Alvarado from injury providing a major boon, and a bounceback season from Craig Kimbrel helping solidify the final innings.

No one projected the Marlins to be a postseason team, and while there’s no denying Miami took advantage of the lack of competitors outside of the “big four” along with some luck, it’s still a fun story.

The Fish went 31-11 in one-run games despite a bullpen ERA of 4.37 that ranked 11th in the National League, but there is talent in the relief corps with arms like Tanner Scott, AJ Puk and deadline-add David Robertson capable of getting the job done.

It’s the starting pitching, however, that gives Miami a shot. Jesus Luzardo and Braxton Garrett showed why they were once considered top prospects, and while Eury Perez struggled to end the year, the 20-year-old also showed immense promise with an arsenal that can give hitters fits in October.

The Marlins ranked fourth in batting average, but that figure is carried by Luis Arraez, who hit .354 after joining Miami in an offseason deal with the Twins. Jake Burger also has been excellent after being acquired in a deadline deal with the White Sox, and Josh Bell was solid in his time with the Marlins after basically being sold to Miami from Cleveland.

All that said, this is easily the worst lineup that will be playing in October, as the Marlins ranked 26th in runs scored this season with just 668.

Prediction: Again, weird things happen in October, but on paper, this is a mismatch. Not only are the Phillies the better roster, but they’re also a team that has postseason experience that reached the World Series just last year. It’s impossible for me to say anything but Phillies in 2, but crazier things have happened.

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Weather Report:

There are only three games on the slate today and none should be impacted by precipitation.

Injury Report:

Jorge Soler - Hip - He left Tuesday’s contest against the Rays with right hip tightness. He is considered day-to-day and could be ready to go against the Nationals.

Lane Thomas - Back - He was lifted prior to the seventh inning due to back soreness. It doesn’t sound serious but there is a chance he sits out Thursday.

Mitch Haniger - Rest - Haniger returned from the injured list on Tuesday and sat out against a righty but the team said it was only due to rest. He should be ready to go on Thursday.

Starting Pitchers (DK-FD)

Spencer Strider: 12,500-12,000

Lance Lynn: 8,800-9,500

Braxton Garrett: 8,200-8,700

Pedro Avila: 6,300-6,700

Joan Adon: 5,400-6,400

Sean Manaea: 5,000-7,300

Spencer Strider is the highest-priced pitcher for the slate, which shouldn’t be surprising. He easily leads the slate with a 2.75 SIERA, 1.06 WHIP, and 38 percent strikeout rate. His 1.06 HR/9 is the highest of his career, without taking the two game appearance in the majors late in 2021 into account. His 60 percent HR/Barrel rate is above league average, which indicates that he could be getting a bit unlucky with the long ball. He faces a tough team in the Dodgers which makes the 12K+ price tag a bit steep.

Strider gets to go toe-to-toe with Lance Lynn in the last game in the slate on Tuesday. To say that Lynn has had an up-and-down season is a bit of an understatement. Lynn has a 3.99 SIERA, 1.38 WHIP, and 26 percent strikeout rate on the season but most of the damage was done while he was a member of the Chicago White Sox. Since joining the Dodgers, he has a 4.30 SIERA, 1.06 WHIP, and 21 percent strikeout rate. He faces a very tough task of facing the Braves in Dodgers Stadium. Since both of these pitchers face uphill battles, going cheap on the pitching while loading up on bats, could work tonight.

Braxton Garrett gets to face the Nationals for the second game in a row. Last time out, he allowed three runs over six innings while only picking up three strikeouts. This time around, he will be in the Nationals home ballpark, which has been below league average when it comes to the long ball, especially with the forecast projecting the winds to be blowing into the ballpark.

Batter to Target

Joan Adon is a pitcher that could be easily exploited in this small slate. His 4.44 SIERA is easily the worst of the group ad Nationals Park is a bit hitter-friendly this season. While the Marlins hitters have struggled in the second of the season Jake Burger ($4,100 on DK and $3,000 on FanDuel) could be an option for fantasy managers looking some cheap power.

Stack Attack

Marlins (Braxton Garrett) vs. Nationals:

DK-FD

Lane Thomas: 4,900-3,200

Keibert Ruiz: 4,000-2,600

Joey Meneses: 4,400-2,700

If Lane Thomas is ready to go on Thursday, he is a must add. The 28-year-old is hitting .346/.393/.591 with eight homers and nine stolen bases against southpaws this season. Ruiz and Meneses also have been above league average against left-handed pitching while hitting towards the top of the Nationals lineup.

Giants (Manaea) vs. Padres:

DK-FD

Ha-Seong Kim: 4,900-3,100

Gary Sanchez: 3,800-2,600

Garrett Cooper: 2,900-2,400

Trent Grisham: 2,800-2,500

The Giants haven’t officially named a starter for Thursday’s contest against the Padres but Sean Manaea figures to fill in as the bulk reliever. Ha-Seong Kim has been out of his mind in the second half of the season, while posting a season long line of .329/.413/.579 with eight homers and ten stolen bases against left-handed pitching. Sánchez and Grisham have also hit above league average against lefties and can be add at some really low prices. Cooper has moved up to sixth in the Padres batting order after Jake Cronenworth landed on the injured list with a fractured wrist. If the Padres bats come to life at the top of the order, you could pick up some RBIs at a considerably low price point.

It’s another full slate of games Wednesday, and there are more than a handful of interesting options to gander over. Colorado-Atlanta provides some intriguing value, but a ‘lesser’ game like Kansas City taking on Pittsburgh also offers intrigue.

Here are tonight’s Underdog and Prizepicks plays for Wednesday’s MLB slate.

Bobby Witt Jr. 1.5 Total Bases - Higher (Underdog)

It’d be hard to overstate just how good the Royals' infielder has been in August, as the young star has hit.327/.379/.626 with eight homers while stealing nine bags and driving in 21 runs even for a weak team. On Wednesday, he’ll go up against the Pirates' Andre Jackson; who pitched decently over his last two starts but offers plenty of opportunity with less-than-spectacular stuff. Don’t be surprised if Witt Jr. offers a combo meal with a homer and a steal, and he’s a good bet to reach the over on that 1.5 total.

Nolan Jones : 1.5 Total Bases - Higher (Prizepicks)

Somewhat quietly, Jones has been one of the better rookies in baseball, coming into Wednesday with a slash of .271/.353/.488. He’ll get a chance to place in the friendly confines of Coors Field, and the former Cleveland prospect will also get a chance to face a right-hander who is making his MLB debut in Darius Vines. Jones is hitless in his last three games, and while that makes things a little more nerve-wracking, it also means he’s due for a big game.

Matt Olson: 0.5 RBI - More (Prizepicks)

Olson will be going up against a lefty in Kyle Freeland, and while he is statistically worse against southpaws than he is righties, worse is a subjective term considering he’s posted an .891 OPS with nine homers and 27 RBI over his 125 plate appearances. Add in the fact he’ll be playing in the friendly confines of Coors Field with some elite hitters hitting in front of him, and Olson is as good of a bet for an RBI as any player Wednesday.

Dane Dunning: 4.0 strikeouts - Higher (Underdog)

Dunning has been able to miss bats at much higher rate as of late, with 39 strikeouts over 29.2 innings of work in his five starts thus far in August. The Mets certainly offer a chance for missed bats, and are not exactly in striking distance for a playoff spot. Dunning should be able to hit his mark as long as he can throw enough strikes to do so; something he admittedly struggled with Friday against the Twins.

Brandon Pfaadt : 4.5 Strikeouts - Lower (Underdog)

There’s reason for long-term upside with Pfaadt, as he was one of the best minor-league hurlers in baseball in 2022, and there have been some flashes of brilliance in 2023 despite his ugly 5.91 ERA and 1.36 WHIP over 67 innings during his rookie campaign. Asking him to reach this total is asking him to work deep against the Dodgers, a lineup that is as feared as any in all of baseball. There’s just too much risk on betting overs with Pfaadt against this kind of team.

The Houston Astros have terrorized the Boston Red Sox this week, putting up 19 runs over the last two games, both of which started by two of Boston’s best pitchers, Chris Sale and Brayan Bello.

Sale and Bello kept the games close, giving up three and two earned runs respectively, but the bullpen couldn’t contain Houston’s bats. Jose Altuve hit for the cycle in the first game, and Yordan Álvarez homered in both games, hitting seven for nine over the two nights.

Vlad Jr Could Go Off Wednesday

The Contrarian Edge Optimizer likes the idea of doubling down on the Astros stack -- a lineup that tied a franchise record 66 hits in the last four games -- but there are also alternatives to consider. Specifically, take a look at Toronto and Seattle. Both have excellent matchups today, so let’s take a closer look.

The Blue Jays face off against Patrick Corbin and the Nationals at the Rogers Centre this afternoon. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ($5000) could be poised for a big day. He’s riding a 10-game hitting streak, during which time he's slashing .302/.333/.438 with two home runs.

If you’re looking for some cheaper options to round out your lineup, keep an eye on both Blue Jays catchers. Danny Jansen ($3600) and Alejandro Kirk ($3000) are each available for less than $4000 on Draft Kings and rostering them should allow you a few extra dollars to roster a top tier bat or one of the three best pitchers on today’s card.

Either Santiago Espinal ($2400) or Whit Merrifield ($4400) could offer hits and runs if the Blue Jays put it together. And don’t sleep on George Springer ($4700), who’s been back in the leadoff spot this series and has put together a really nice run with a five-game hitting streak.

No August swoon for Seattle bats

The Mariners bats were momentarily silenced at T-Mobile Park on Tuesday night, but they’ve been red hot this month, leading the team to a 20-6 record in August. They should stack up nicely against Zach Neal, who’s starting for Oakland for the first time since 2016.

The Mariners have been excellent against right-handed pitchers this season, hitting .240/.323/.419 with a team wRC+ of 108 this season. During their hot streak this August, those numbers are even more impressive -- .279/.363/.486 and a wRC+ of 138 against right-handed pitching.

The Optimizer likes Seattle's Teoscar Hernandez ($4500) as one of your outfielders, and you could do worse than supplementing his production with leadoff man JP Crawford ($4300). Third baseman Eugenio Suarez ($4600) offers some nice pop and while you should avoid Julio Rodriguez, who is day-to-day after a late scratch on Tuesday night, Dominic Canzone ($3000) is a very cost-effective option who’s been on a nice run over the last 10 days, hitting .306/.306/.500.

Pitchers to consider

As for pitching, the wind is blowing in at Wrigley Field, and the Brewers' Brandon Woodruff ($10200) has looked every bit like the ace we know he can be since coming back from the injured list. He’s thrown 22.2 innings across four starts with 29 strikeouts, and only the Rangers scored more than two runs against Woodruff since his return.

Another pitcher to consider is the Giants' Logan Webb ($9500), who has gone five or more innings in 18 of 19 starts this season – including a seven-inning start with seven strikeouts against the Reds at Great American Ballpark in July.

Oracle is a much more pitcher-friendly environment, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Webb surpass that strikeout total from July with a free-swinging Reds team that ranks 25th in MLB with a 24.5 percent strikeout rate.

There are 15 MLB games on tap for Tuesday and a ton of opportunities to cash. The Seattle Mariners-Oakland Athletics game is very intriguing on both sides, and the Mariners have been one of the hottest hitting teams in baseball over the last few weeks. Here are tonight’s Underdog and Prizepicks plays for Tuesday’s MLB slate.

Teoscar Hernandez: 1.5 Total Bases - Higher (Underdog)
Hernandez has been excellent against left-handed pitchers and Ken Waldichuk has let up six hits or more in three of his last four starts, and he’s sporting an earned run average over six.

He’s hit the over on one and a half total bases in seven straight games. He’s homered three times in his last three contests. Hernandez is scorching hot hitting the ball in August, and he sits with a .371 batting average this month. Waldichuk has been a weaker pitcher on the road than at home, and tonight’s game is in Seattle.

Ty France: 0.5 Singles - Higher (Underdog)
France has singled in five of his last seven contests, and he hits way better against lefties, hitting .309 against them. France is having one of his better hitting months as he’s batting .284 in August. Waldichuk is more of a groundball pitcher, and France hits over 42 percent when it comes to ground balls. Between the amount of hits Waldichuk has given up lately, his struggles on the road and France having a strong month at the dish, he should be able to get on base this evening.

Ken Waldichuk: 5.5 Hits Allowed - More (Prizepicks)
With Waldichuk giving up at least six hits in a few starts recently, it’s hard to think that he’ll be able to shut down the Mariners who have been the best hitting team by average in the MLB over the last two weeks and third best over the last seven days. Waldichuk has a 7.43 earned run average, and opponents hit .303 against him when he’s starting on the road. Seattle hits .262 against left-handed pitchers which is the 8th highest in the majors.

Jose Altuve: 2.0 Hits+Runs+RBIs - Higher (Underdog)
Altuve has crossed the plate nine times total over his last three games. During that span he hit the ball seven times and produced five RBIs. Altuve hits .335 against right-handed pitchers, and even though Boston Red Sox pitcher Brayan Bello hasn’t given up a ton of runs in his starts recently, he’s allowed six hits or more in five straight starts. Last week in this exact matchup, Bello gave up nine hits against Houston, and since then, Altuve has heated up. Altuve has also been a better hitter on the road than at home, and this game is in Boston.

Manny Machado: 0.5 Singles - Higher (Underdog)
Machado has been reaching base a lot lately. Tonight, he faces St. Louis Cardinals pitcher Zack Thompson who is not only a lefty, but he’s surrendered six hits in both of his last two outings. Machado hits .327 against left-handed pitchers and he’s hit a single in three of his last five games.

Marcus Semien: 0.5 Singles - Higher (Underdog)
Semien hits better against left-handed pitchers than right-handed pitchers. He’s hit singles in four of his last seven games, and the Rangers' bats have woken up a bit in the last week. Semien has a good history against New York Mets pitcher Jose Quintana, hitting the ball six times in 13 at-bats against him. He has the most hits for the Rangers this season.