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The NBA season officially began last Tuesday, but this Tuesday, I say it officially kicked off because we received our first blockbuster overnight Woj bomb. The 76ers saga with James Harden concluded early Tuesday morning. Philadelphia agreed to send a package that included Harden and PJ Tucker to the Clippers for veterans Marcus Morris, Nicolas Batum, Robert Covington, and picks. There are three games Tuesday night to select our Underdog, and PrizePicks plays for.

There are a couple of fun matchups, including an Eastern Conference playoff rematch between the New York Knicks and Cleveland Cavaliers. The new-look Clippers could make their debut Tuesday night when they host the Orlando Magic.

Mitchell Robinson 9.5 Rebounds (Higher) – Underdog

The Knicks will be in Cleveland to battle the Cavaliers in a playoff rematch in the first game on TNT Tuesday night. Cleveland remains without Jarrett Allen, so Robinson will easily be the biggest force on the floor. Mitch has hauled in 15 and 13 rebounds over his last two games. The Knicks lead the NBA in rebounding so far this season, and without Allen to protect the paint, the Cavaliers have struggled on the glass, allowing the 9th most rebounds per game.

Donovan Mitchell 3 Turnovers (Higher) – Underdog

The Cavaliers will be short-handed tonight, so Mitchell will see an even bigger spike in his already crazy-high usage. Darius Garland has been ruled out for Tuesday, and in 9 games last season without Garland, Mitchell had at least 4 turnovers 8 times! Mitchell has played without Garland once already this season and had 5 turnovers to go with his usage increase to 36.4%! This is not an indictment of Mitchell’s play but just a spot where he will have the ball in his hands a ton.

Victor Wembanyama 6 Rebounds (More) – PrizePicks

This will be the world’s second look at Wemby on national television when the Spurs battle the Suns on TNT. The phenom has finished with 5, 12, and 5 rebounds in his first three games. In his two finishes with just 5 rebounds, he dealt with foul trouble and then a blowout, which saw him play just 23 and 26 minutes. The Spurs should be in this game, and Jusuf Nurkic and Drew Eubanks are not instilling any fear. Trust Wemby to grab at least 7 boards.

Jusuf Nurkic 13.5 Points (More) - PrizePicks

I’m staying in the desert for my next pick. The Suns center should be able to dominate his matchup against his former teammate, Zach Collins, who isn’t known for his abilities on the defensive end. The Spurs allowed the three Centers they faced to go over this number. Dereck Lively II scored 16 points, Alperen Sengun poured in 25 points, and Ivica Zubac scored 16 points in just 22 minutes.

Franz Wagner 5.0 3’s Attempted (Higher) – Underdog

Wagner is quietly off to a solid start to his 2023 season. He is certainly a player to watch after his strong performance in the World Cup this past summer. With the Clippers lineup possibly a bit unstable tonight following the trade, I’m opting for a Magic player. Wagner has attempted at least 7 three-pointers in all three games so far. He hasn’t been shy about getting his shots up, as he leads all Magic players in three-point attempts so far. The Clippers have allowed the fourth-most threes to opposing small forwards, so this is a good spot for him.

An optimizer is a powerful tool to harness in DFS play, capable of bulk operations in an instant that would otherwise take hours of manipulation to perform manually. Like any other tool, one must first learn how to wield an optimizer before its true power can be realized. That is exactly what we will look to sort through in this weekly series. We’ll focus on Contrarian Edge Optimizer use at Fantasy Sports Logic for the Monday slates each week of the 2023 season to explore the tool itself, maximize expected value through optimal utilization, and provide a sneak peek into the newest, and most dynamic, optimizer in the industry.

First Run

As we typically do, running the optimizer without manipulating anything will give us a good idea of what to expect from the field tonight. The blended roster appears to be focused on fitting both quarterbacks in, returning a build of Hunter Renfrow at captain, Jared Goff, Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jimmy Garoppolo, and Josh Jacobs. There is a ton to discuss based off that first run alone.

MNF Theory and Practical Application

First off, let’s break down the returned roster from the optimizer before getting into the rest of the theory for Week 8 Monday Night Football.

Hunter Renfrow carries a low 5.1 percent team target market share and 9.9 targets per route run rate for the Raiders this season as he has been largely phased out of the offense (and appears likely to be on his way out of town before the trade deadline). That profile would likely require a deep average depth of target (aDOT) to return viable production for the captain slot. Except Renfrow holds a modest 8.8 aDOT in this offense this season. That means Renfrow should be reserved for flex usage on this slate, and even then, his chances of cracking the optimal roster are extremely thin.

50.6 percent of the available targets for the Raiders have flowed through Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers this season. 84.0 percent of the team’s backfield opportunities have gone to Josh Jacobs. That, my friends, is an extremely concentrated offense. Even so, it remains highly unlikely all three see the requisite production on a showdown slate to simply force them onto rosters together, leaving us with our first general rule for this evening:

At least one of, and no more than two of, Davante Adams, Jakobi Meyers, and Josh Jacobs.

Because the concentration of work is so tight amongst those three Raiders players, it is not required to play them paired with their quarterback, Jimmy Garoppolo. In fact, Garoppolo has just one game all season with more than a modest 16.1 fantasy points on an offense that has struggled in the red zone to the tune of a 27th-ranked 41.67 percent red zone touchdown rate (the rate of red zone trips that result in a touchdown). I conducted a study this offseason that attempted to find the correlation between touchdowns and fantasy production at the four major positions. That study found that the correlation was highest at quarterback (that study can be found here if you’re interested in the numbers behind the claim). That leaves us with our second major rule for this slate:

Limit Jimmy Garoppolo to 30 percent ownership and boost the Las Vegas kicker on rosters without Garoppolo. The two should theoretically never be played together.

Interestingly enough, the Lions have been even more concentrated than the Raiders this season, with Sam LaPorta and Amon-Ra St. Brown combining to account for 52.3 percent of the team’s total targets on the year. With David Montgomery out of action in Week 7, Jahmyr Gibbs handled a robust 87 percent snap rate and saw 21 running back opportunities, 10 of which were targets. In fact, St. Brown, LaPorta, and Gibbs combined to see 36 targets on 53 Jared Goff pass attempts their last time out, good for an elite 67.9 percent combined market share. Furthermore, the Raiders rank 30th in the league in red zone touchdown rate allowed at a robust 73.91 percent (as in, teams are scoring a touchdown on 73.91 percent of their red zone trips against the Raiders this season). Rule number three for MNF:

Jared Goff on 70 percent of rosters, paired with at least two of Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta, and Jahmyr Gibbs.

Finally, Tre Tucker has out-snapped Hunter Renfrow in each of the previous two games while Austin Hooper, Kalif Raymond, Antoine Green, Jameson Williams, and Brock Wright have all played around the same percentage of snaps during each team’s previous two games. Our final rule for the evening:

Exactly one player from the group of Tucker, Hooper, Raymond, Green, Williams, and Wright on every roster.

As you can see, the Contrarian Edge Optimizer is an invaluable tool to building bulk rosters for DFS play. To best harness its abilities, we must first have a working knowledge of the varying options to utilize as inputs in addition to a theoretical and conceptual working knowledge of the game of NFL DFS. This article series will attempt to further our understanding in both those areas throughout the season.

The NBA season is off and running, and what an exciting first week it was. We’ve now had a chance to see every team play. Many new faces in new places have started off strong, and there are plenty of player props to select from. We’re coming off a sweep last Thursday, and I’m looking to continue that success this week! We have 11 games to select our Underdog, and PrizePicks plays for Monday night to kick off our week!

There are some exciting matchups, including an Eastern Conference playoff rematch between Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Miami Heat. There are plenty of options for Monday night, so let’s get to it.

Giannis Antetokounmpo 26.5 Points (Higher) -Underdog

Riding with Giannis on any night is an easy choice but riding him in the ultimate revenge spot is even better. The Bucks will battle the Heat on Monday night in their third game of the season. Miami was responsible for knocking the Bucks out of the playoffs last season in a massive series upset. Giannis was injured in Game 1 of the series and missed Games 2 and 3. Ultimately, the Bucks lost the series 4-1, and Giannis will be out for blood in this playoff rematch. Including the playoffs, Giannis has gone over this number in 3 of his last 4 healthy games against the Heat. Giannis will get his revenge.

Ben Simmons 16.5 Rebounds + Assists (More) – PrizePicks

I’m going to keep riding this over until the lines adjust. Simmons is in a make-or-break season for his career outlook. Through the Nets first two games, he has had 18 and 19 rebounds and assists. The Nets get to face one of the NBA’s softest defenses Monday night against the Hornets. Charlotte is allowing the third most rebounds per game, and last season they were also bottom three in rebounds allowed per game. Simmons’ usage rate is down again so far this season, but with Center Nicolas Claxton out again for the Nets, Simmons will be their top rebounder on the floor.

Kristaps Porzingis 19.5 Points (More) – PrizePicks

Revenge game narrative? Check. No one on the Wizards to defend him? Check. There is always the risk of a blowout ruining a player prop, but this spread is surprisingly closer than I expected it to be. Porzingis should be able to get his tonight from all over the floor. The Wizards are allowing the second-highest percentage of three-pointers at 43.3%. The “Unicorn” is proving this season why he was given that nickname early in his career.

Cade Cunningham 23.5 Points (Higher) – Underdog

Cunningham has looked like his explosive self through the season’s first three games for the Pistons. He has scored 30 and 25 points in two of three games, and we can expect him to be busy trying to keep up with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander on Monday night. Cade is leading the Pistons in field goal attempts by a wide margin, and the Thunder are once again struggling to slow down opposing guards.

Jalen Duren 13.5 Rebounds (More) – PrizePicks

As a team, the Detroit Pistons have been dominating the boards. They have three players all averaging double-digit rebounds so far. Duren leads the way with 15.3 rebounds per game. He has had an insane 24.3 rebound chances per game and has turned that into games with 15, 17, and 14 rebounds, respectively! I cashed in on his double-double at plus money, but books have adjusted to his output heading into the fourth game of the season. A matchup with the Thunder presents another terrific spot for the second-year man from Memphis to dominate the glass. OKC has allowed the third most rebounds per game to opposing centers so far. The Pistons are a young and exciting team just like the Thunder, just not quite playoff-ready, but they will battle on a nightly basis because of the play of guys like Duren!

Jalen Johnson

After playing really well off the bench in Atlanta’s first two games, Johnson got the opportunity to start on Sunday. He posted a 14/7/1/2/1 line with two 3-pointers and helped the Hawks get their first win of the season. His play was already helping his value ascend, but a permanent place in the starting unit will skyrocket him up the ranks. Hopefully this wasn’t matchup dependent to deal with Giannis Antetokounmpo and Brook Lopez, though with Atlanta hosting Minnesota on Monday, it would be shocking if they switched up their starting unit.

Cam Thomas

Not that anyone really questioned this, but Thomas is an elite scorer. He just needs the opportunity. Brooklyn has leaned on him through their first two games of the season, and he averaged 33 points while shooting a scorching 62.5% from the floor. It’s fun to ride the hype train, and Thomas may have some more incredible scoring nights. However, he’s not going to continue to shoot over 60% from the field, so it may be smart to sell high on Thomas.

Mark Williams

The first two games of the season have been a bit of a mixed bag for Williams. He was awesome against Atlanta, but he put up a stinker and got into foul trouble against Detroit. I’m expecting him to play more like he did against the Hawks than he did against the Pistons more often than not. If a manager in your league overreacts to what he did in game two, remember what he did against Clint Capela and Onyeka Okongwu in game one and buy low.

Evan Mobley

Jarrett Allen has yet to suit up this season, which has allowed us the opportunity to see what Mobley looks like as the starting center. The first game against Brooklyn wasn’t great (10/6 with two blocks). Game two against the Thunder was better (14/15 with two blocks). However, with Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland also out on Saturday, Mobley dominated down low with 33 points, 14 rebounds and three blocks. When the team is healthy, he won’t see this many offensive opportunities (23 shots against Indiana on Saturday). However, he’ll be the face of the franchise one day, and this game was incredibly encouraging.

Dereck Lively

Dallas has only played two games so far, with Lively recording a double-double in the first one off the bench and playing a limited role despite starting in the second. However, don’t get discouraged. Brooklyn was without Nicolas Claxton, so they didn’t really play a center for Lively to match up with. Jason Kidd adapted to the small ball unit, which limited Lively. Dallas shouldn’t play many teams that don’t have a center, so we’ll get a better look at Lively moving forward.

Jalen Duren

With each passing game, Duren’s value rises more and more. It’s early, but he has been a top ten player in fantasy basketball so far, with averages of 18 points, 15.3 rebounds, 4 assists and 2.7 blocks while shooting 80% from the floor and 75% from the line. He has been dominant so far in year two, and the managers that have him rostered should continue to enjoy the ride. He always had a lot of upside, but doing this before turning 20 is incredibly impressive.

Scoot Henderson

Let’s be patient here. Scoot has been worse than I expected, but it’s important to examine the context. Portland is a bad team that has arguably been worse than expected. Anfernee Simons is now hurt, which puts even more pressure on Scoot. Rookie point guards often struggle early on, but it doesn’t mean that they won’t pan out. If a manager in your league is panicking, buy low. Scoot is going to be incredible, but it isn’t going to happen from day one, and that’s okay.

Keyonte George

George dominated Summer League and had a solid preseason. He had a limited role over their first two games, but he played 27 minutes against Phoenix in their last game, with Talen Horton-Tucker playing just 16 as the starting point guard. There aren’t many rookies that have been able to start this season, but George could move into the starting unit soon. He had 12 points, seven rebounds and six assists off the bench in their last game. His value will skyrocket if he takes over the starting point guard job, so acquire him before that if you’re interested.

For some of us with struggling fantasy teams, every matchup is basically Halloween. You’re hoping your team can dress up as something it’s not and some fill-in players can play pretend as All-Pros.

But that’s what makes it all fun! The pretend and the hope and the “any given Sunday” aspect if enough goes right, your team can pull out the victory -- unless you’re playing against A.J. Brown, who doesn’t need to dress up as anything other than himself because he just might be Superman!

10 Studs

1. CeeDee Lamb - 12 rec. 158 yds. 2 TDs

2. Dak Prescott - 304 yds. 4 TDs

3. DeAndre Hopkins - 4 rec. 128 yds. 3 TDs

4. Will Levis - 238 yds. 4 TDs

5. Sam Howell - 397 yds. 4 TDs

6. Jahan Dotson - 108 yds. 1 TD

7. Jaylen Waddle - 121 yds. 1 TD

8. Gus Edwards - 80 yds. 3 TDs

9. Rashid Shaheed - 153 yds. 1 TD

10. Trey McBride - 95 yds. 1 TD

We knew the Dallas Cowboys had it in ‘em! We knew they could throw it downfield, didn’t we? Yes, of course we did. We just needed Mike McCarthy to believe it, too. Good things happen when Dak Prescott finds CeeDee Lamb early and often. It was Lamb’s second consecutive 100+ yard effort and far and away Dak’s best throwing game of the year. The Cowboys looked like they couldn’t hang with anyone after the embarrassment against the 49ers a few weeks ago. Now, it looks like they could torch a leaky Eagles secondary next week. And they’re going to need to because they’re not getting much from the ground game.

You know that Randy Moss image that floats around the internet every now and then? Moss is looking at the camera while the old Fox graphic showed his Thanksgiving stat line of 3 catches 163 yards 3 TDs. That was basically DeAndre Hopkins’ Sunday this week except he had one extra catch. Hopkins and the Tennessee offense actually looked explosive thanks to rookie QB Will Levis. One game does not make a career, but Levis made a case for getting plenty of more run. I’m sure the Titans aren’t asking Ryan Tannehill to hurry back from injury now.

Nobody gets sacked more than Sam Howell. The guy is picking himself up off the ground seemingly every play, and a Philadelphia Eagles front was going to be a daunting task. But Washington kept Howell relatively upright and he delivered a career day and almost a win. The effort might’ve revitalized Jahan Dotson’s season as he turned in his first 100 yard game of the year. The Commanders have gotten Dotson more involved the past two weeks and he could keep it rolling against the Patriots next week.

Speaking of New England, they just got burned by both Dolphins receivers. But while it’s pretty routine to see Tyreek Hill go off, it was nice to see Jaylen Waddle join him in the century club for yardage. Waddle had scored in 3 of the last 4 games and could be on the board again if the matchup next week with the Chiefs turns into a shootout.

The Gus bus was rolling for Baltimore against the Cardinals. Listen, we can be honest here. Watching Gus Edwards run isn’t the most beautiful thing in the world. But he’s averaging over four yards per carry and he’s the clear lead and bellcow for the Ravens. He’s a threat to score every time if Baltimore gets close to the end zone.

If the New Orleans Saints record a big play in a game, it’s probably because of Rashid Shaheed. It doesn’t matter if Derek Carr or Taysom Hill is throwing it, Shaheed is catching bombs. At the very least, he’s good for betting the over on his weekly longest reception prop. His big play ability gives him a huge upside when slotting him in at flex or your spot start receiver for your fantasy team.

Trey McBride finds himself a starter in Arizona with Zach Ertz on the IR and now he could be in the weekly TE1 conversation. McBride wound up with just south of 100 yards and a score while amassing 14 targets in the Cardinals offense. Things could get even better if Kyler Murray ends up taking the field soon.

The Duds

Now, for the dreaded duds. For Halloween, the Green Bay Packers should dress as a team that has a competent offense. Andy Herman summed it up on X with this: the Packers haven’t scored a first half touchdown since week 2. It’s insulting to struggling teams to say the Packers are struggling. They are inept out there.

Jordan Love can’t seem to find it with Christian Watson. Did Aaron Jones do something to Matt LaFleur we don’t know about? Hope springs eternal with the Rams and their freshly burnt secondary on tap, but I also thought this Green Bay team could move the ball against the Broncos last week and they didn’t. So we’ll see.

Speaking of those Broncos, how about a round of applause. They shut down our other dud team: the Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs were 7 point favorites and lost outright on the road. They scored zero touchdowns against a team in Denver that had looked flat out hapless at times this season. Patrick Mahomes tossed two picks. The Chiefs will be fine but this loss still has to sting.

And finally, what’s gotten into San Francisco? That’s three losses in a row for a team that looked like world beaters with no weaknesses. What do those losses have in common? The opposing team’s WR1 put up more than 100 yards on the 49ers' secondary all three times. Quarterback Brock Purdy has been far from “brock” solid in each of those games tossing 5 picks over three weeks. An away date with a red hot Jaguars team doesn’t make things much easier.

Our NFL player rankings guru Cody Carpentier has taken a run through all player positions for Week 8 and elevated some and demoted others based on the latest information coming from each team. See below:

Quarterback

Running Back

Wide Receiver

Tight End

Kicker

Defense

Injuries are a never-ending problem with NBA basketball and taking advantage of their fill-ins can be one of the keys to winning in any fantasy situation, whether it be DFS, season-long or any other format you can think of. Each week we’ll take a look at the injury report on Wednesdays and recommend replacement players and other impacts of what the report looks like.

Since we’re just a couple of days into the season, the report is a bit light this week, but as we saw on Tuesday night, the absence of Draymond Green (ankle) and Bradley Beal (back) prompted guys like Jonathan Kuminga and Josh Okogie to get the attention of fantasy managers. Here’s a look at what injuries might create opportunities for players who may not have even been drafted in your league. And we’ll take a look at every team’s starting lineup that is in action tonight, since the injury season isn’t quite upon us.

Atlanta Hawks - No significant injuries outside of Wesley Matthews (calf). This shouldn’t have an impact on Wednesday’s game but Jalen Johnson is a guy fantasy managers will want to keep an eye on everywhere. If he goes off early, think about scooping him up in your league.

Boston Celtics - The Celtics’ injury report is clean heading into Wednesday’s opener and Derrick White is a favorite sleeper in Boston. Additionally, Peyton Pritchard had a fun preseason and will be worth keeping an eye on tonight.

Brooklyn Nets - Dariq Whitehead is the only Net showing up on the report and I can’t wait to see what Mikal Bridges, Nic Claxton and Ben Simmons do on Wednesday night.

Charlotte Hornets - The Hornets’ injury report is loaded with names, but the key is that the starters are intact here, meaning LaMelo Ball, Terry Rozier, Gordon Hayward, P.J. Washington and Mark Williams should all have a fun night against the Hawks. If Washington went undrafted in your league, think about picking him up. Miles Bridges may not play at all this season, which would be big for PJW.

Chicago Bulls - The Bulls’ injury report is clean and we won’t see Lonzo Ball this season. Coby White looks like the starting point guard for the Bulls and he appeared to turn a corner late last season and looked very good in the preseason. If he was undrafted in your league, he’s going to be worth a look. If he goes to work early in this one be ready to pull the trigger on him. Patrick Williams is another player to keep a close eye on early on Wednesday.

Cleveland Cavaliers - Darius Garland (hamstring) is iffy for tonight and if he can’t go Ty Jerome and Caris LeVert are going to be interesting streaming options. Donovan Mitchell is the star of this team and my guess is that Garland will power through his injury on Cleveland’s opening night.

Dallas Mavericks - Kyrie Irving (groin) should be good to go while Luka Doncic (calf) is no longer feeling pain, meaning both players should be ready for Wednesday night. Just make sure that Luka is good to go before locking him into lineups. Josh Green, Grant Williams, Dereck Lively and Jaden Hardy are the other Mavericks who might make some noise against the Spurs tonight, but I don’t really trust any of them.

Denver Nuggets - Nikola Jokic triple-doubled on Tuesday with 29 points, 13 rebounds and 11 assists and all five starters scored in double figures (Aaron Gordon, Michael Porter Jr., Jamal Murray, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope). Gordon scored 15 with a full stat line, MPJ had a 12 & 12 double-double, Murray racked up 21 points and six dimes, and KCP came through with 20 points, three steals and a couple of 3-pointers.

Detroit Pistons - Bojan Bogdanovic (calf), Isaiah Livers (ankle) and Monte Morris (quad) are all out for the Pistons, but their starting lineup of Cade Cunningham, Jaden Ivey, Ausar Thompson, Isaiah Stewart and Jalen Duren should all be good to go against the Heat on Wednesday. If Thompson or Ivey weren’t drafted in your league, think about pouncing on them if they get off to a good start tonight.

Golden State Warriors - The Warriors got 27 points from Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson had 15 and Chris Paul got some revenge against his former team with 14 points, six rebounds and nine assists, despite hitting just 4-of-15 shots. He only started because Draymond Green was out with an ankle injury and I don’t trust CP3 this year. Jonathan Kuminga came off the bench for 12 points, six rebounds, two steals and a block, but it still feels like Steve Kerr is never actually going to turn him loose.

Houston Rockets - The Rockets are at Orlando on Wednesday and Tari Eason and Victor Oladipo are out. Fred VanVleet, Jalen Green, Dillon Brooks, Jabari Smith and Alperen Sengun should all be good to go and I’m excited to see if Smith can build on last year’s success. Sengun is also a popular fantasy play this season and should have a field day against Wendell Carter Jr.

Indiana Pacers - The Pacers host the Wizards tonight and have a clean injury report. Starters Tyrese Haliburton, Bennedict Mathurin, Bruce Brown, Obi Toppin and Myles Turner look like the starters. Mathurin, Brown and Toppin are all worth keeping a close eye on if they went undrafted in your league while Buddy Hield should make some nice noise off the Pacer bench as a 3-point specialist.

Los Angeles Clippers - The Clippers host Portland and Bones Hyland, Terance Mann and Josh Primo are all on the injury report, not that it matters. The good news is that Russell Westbrook, Paul George, Kawhi Leonard, Robert Covington and Ivica Zubac are all playing. If Covington gets off to a hot start he’ll be worth a look, but should be a hit-or-miss player on most nights, depending on what his teammates are doing.

L.A. Lakers - The Lakers fell to the Nuggets on Tuesday night and Anthony Davis threw away a solid first half by failing to score a single point in the second half of the game, ruining fantasy managers’ nights along the way. Jarred Vanderbilt sat out for the Lakers and Taurean Prince came through for fantasy managers with 18 points and four 3-pointers on 6-of-8 shooting. Keep a close eye on him in case he does it again on Thursday against the Suns. LeBron James led the way in Tuesday’s loss with a 21-8-5 line and all five starters (Davis, Prince, James, D’Angelo Russell, Austin Reaves) scored in double figures.

Memphis Grizzlies - Santi Aldama is out tonight due to an ankle injury along with Brandon Clarke (Achilles) and Ja Morant (suspension), so Xavier Tillman should get all the work he can handle against the Kings. Tillman is a nice streamer/DFS option and was also a popular late pick in fantasy drafts when it was announced that Steven Adams would miss the entire season (knee). Aldama will return to eat into Tillman’s minutes, but  as long as Aldama is out, Tillman’s the play here. Marcus Smart, Desmond Bane, Ziaire Williams and Jaren Jackson Jr. should round out the starting lineup for Memphis and Williams is another guy to keep a close eye on tonight. I’m fully expecting for Bane and JJJ to go off tonight.

Miami Heat - The Heat host the Pistons and are fairly healthy, sans Haywood Highsmith and Josh Richardson, who are both out tonight. The Heat should start Tyler Herro, Caleb Martin, Jimmy Butler, Kevin Love and Bam Adebayo and it’s a little surprising how much Martin is being forgotten about in fantasyland. Especially once Butler starts missing games for Miami. This could be the last hurrah for Love and I’m not expecting much.

Milwaukee Bucks - Cameron Payne is iffy with a thigh injury while the rest of the team should be healthy when they host the Sixers on Thursday. Everyone is anxious to see Damian Lillard and Giannis Antetokounmpo play together in Game 1 and they’ll likely be joined by Malik Beasley, Khris Middleton and Brook Lopez in the starting lineup. No one is talking about Beasley, so I’m interested to see what he does in the opener.

Minnesota Timberwolves - Jaylen Clark and Jaden McDaniels are both out for the Wolves tonight, which shouldn’t make an impact on what they do. Minnesota will start Mike Conley, Anthony Edwards, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Karl-Anthony Towns and Rudy Gobert. I think Ant is about ready to take over the NBA universe with a huge season, Conley has become a forgotten man in fantasy at age 36 and we’re still waiting for NAW to have a breakout season. If Towns can stay healthy he’s going to be a fantasy steal this season. Kyle Anderson should be the best bench player here and could make some noise for Sixth Man of the Year if he gets off to a good start.

New Orleans Pelicans - The Pelicans are at Memphis and get this - they’re kind of healthy. Jose Alvarado, Naji Marshall and Trey Murphy are all out but both Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram should be healthy and ready to go. The health of those two is one of the biggest questions in fantasy this season and if they can both stay on the court, the sky’s the limit for the Pelicans. Herbert Jones is too much of an offensive liability for most fantasy managers, while C.J. McCollum and Jonas Valanciunas are simply vanilla flavors without much upside at this point in their careers. A lot of folks think Zion is going to have a big year but I’d like to see him make it through Week 1 in one piece before getting too excited.

New York Knicks - The Knicks have a clean injury slate and Jalen Brunson, Quentin Grimes, RJ Barrett, Julius Randle and Mitchell Robinson are expected to start against the Celtics tonight. Brunson is a fantasy monster, Grimes is a fantasy sleeper, Barrett is a volume scorer and a fantasy liability, and we’ll all be waiting to see if Robinson can finally put it all together in year six.

Oklahoma City Thunder - The Thunder visit the Bulls and are at the top of my list for teams to watch on NBA League Pass this season. Kenrich Williams and Jalin Williams are both out for OKC but starters Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Josh Giddey, Luguentz Dort, Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren are good to go and we’re all dying to see how Holmgren and the Thunder will play this season. No one is talking about Dort and I didn’t draft him anywhere, as the Thunder just have too many other weapons to be excited about. Look for the Thunder to try to make a statement on opening night.

Orlando Magic - The Magic will host Houston and will be without Kevon Harris, while Gary Harris will be a game-time call due to a groin injury. Those injuries shouldn’t have an impact and the Magic should start Markelle Fultz, Jalen Suggs, Franz Wagner, Paolo Banchero and Wendell Carter Jr. in Game 1. It will be interesting to see if Fultz and Banchero can take a step forward this season, Wagner looks like a star in the making, and WCJ and Suggs should be serviceable fantasy players, especially in deeper leagues.

Philadelphia 76ers - We won’t see the Sixers until Thursday night when they visit the Bucks and will come into that one mostly whole. The key missing piece will be James Harden, who isn’t likely to play a game for the Sixers this season while feuding with Daryl Morey. It’s anyone’s guess as to when and where Harden will land somewhere else, and I’ve grown a bit tired of waiting. Harden has become an afterthought to anyone who didn’t draft him in fantasy. Tyrese Maxey and De’Anthony Melton should both be fun in fantasy without Harden in the fold, Joel Embiid will try to win the MVP Award, and starters Tobias Harris and P.J. Tucker remain two of the most boring fantasy players in the NBA.

Phoenix Suns - The new-look Suns got a tough road win at Golden State on Tuesday as Devin Booker scored 32 points. Bradley Beal was out with a back injury and Josh Okogie stepped up with 17 points and five rebounds. I’m not messing with him yet, but it was an interesting debut. On the flip side, Grayson Allen missed all six of his shots and was a total dud as an injury replacement for Beal. Kevin Durant and Jusuf Nurkic both played well and Nurkic was particularly exciting with 14 points, 14 boards and a block in 28 minutes. If he can stay healthy he should be a very serviceable center this season. Devin Booker and Bradley Beal are both doubtful for play on Thursday.

Portland Trail Blazers - Ish Wainwright is out for the Blazers and they’ll likely start Scoot Henderson, Anfernee Simons, Matisse Thybulle, Jerami Grant and Deandre Ayton. Ayton should be playing with a chip on his shoulder, big things are expected from Simons with Damian Lillard now in Milwaukee and Shaedon Sharpe is expected to make plenty of noise this season whether he’s starting or coming off the bench.

Sacramento Kings - The Kings are at Utah and will be without Trey Lyles (calf), while Chris Duarte is questionable with a knee injury. Starters De’Aaron Fox, Kevin Huerter, Harrison Barnes, Keegan Murray and Domantas Sabonis will look to pick up where they left off in last year’s dream season and I’m expecting Murray to take a big leap forward this season. Sasha Vezenkov is a deep fantasy sleeper and will be worth keeping an eye on and Malik Monk could be sneaky in deep leagues.

San Antonio Spurs - Center Zach Collins is on the injury report with an illness but our guess is it will take more than a head cold to keep him from playing on opening night. The Spurs should be starting a lineup of Jeremy Sochan, Devin Vassell, Keldon Johnson, Victor Wembanyama and Collins, with Tre Jones contributing solidly off the bench. I think the Spurs are going to be better than advertised and Wednesday’s matchup against Dallas should be one of the most watched games on League Pass tonight. Wemby is going to EAT as there is no one in Dallas who can stop him.

Toronto Raptors - The Raptors will host the Timberwolves and are healthy except for Christian Koloko (illness), which will have no fantasy impact. Dennis Schroder looks like the new starting point guard in Toronto with Fred VanVleet in Houston and he’ll be joined by O.G. Anunoby, Scottie Barnes, Pascal Siakam and Jakob Poeltl in the starting unit. Barnes has serious breakout potential this season and it should be fun to see what he can do tonight against the Wolves.

Utah Jazz - The Jazz have a clean health report and should start Jordan Clarkson, Talen Horton-Tucker, Lauri Markkanen, John Collins and Walker Kessler. Clarkson is under the fantasy radar, THT had a nice preseason and has a lot of fantasy managers excited to see what he can do, Markkanen will look to build on last season’s success, Collins is looking for new life with a new team and Kessler will try to lead the league in blocked shots, as well as take a big step forward after an impressive rookie season. This team should be deceptively good and THT may end up being one of the hotter pickups off the waiver wire in Week 1 if things go well tonight.

Washington Wizards - The Wizards visit the Pacers and will be without Johnny Davis, Anthony Gill and Landry Shamet. While they’ll be one of the worst teams in the league in reality, there are a lot of fantasy positives here. Can Jordan Poole lead the league in scoring? Yes. Will Kyle Kuzma have a career year playing in his shadow? Yes. Can Daniel Gafford flirt with leading the league in blocks and become a dominant fantasy center? Possibly. Additionally, Bilal Coulibaly could start over Deni Avdija and be a steals monster if it happens. He’ll be a hot waiver-wire pickup if things go well on opening night. Tyus Jones should also be a solid starting fantasy point guard running the offense in Washington. If you somehow drafted Deni Avdija, I’d recommend being ready to pull the trigger if Coulibaly gets hot early on Wednesday.

The NBA season is officially underway, and Wednesday was a blast with 24 teams in action and no major injuries to speak of. We’ve got a two-game slate on Thursday as the Sixers visit the Bucks, and the Lakers host the Suns.

The Sportstopia Contrarian Edge Optimizer is the elite tool to use when setting your DFS lineups and you can try it out for an entire week for just $1.

Here are some of the plays the Optimizer and I both like heading into Thursday night’s two-game DFS slate.

DraftKings

• Point Guard: Damian Lillard - $9000, 43.34 points
• Shooting Guard: D’Angelo Russell - $5500, 30.58 points
• Small Forward: Josh Okogie - $4700, 26.89 points
• Power Forward: Kevin Durant - $8900, 45.48 points
• Center: Anthony Davis - $8800, 44.88 points

With both Devin Booker and Bradley Beal unlikely to play for the Suns tonight this should be all KD all the time for the Suns. There are big names to choose from tonight but Durant’s usage should be through the roof, and I think you have to find a way to get him into your lineups. Okogie should also benefit from the absence of Booker/Beal, while Jordan Goodwin could see a ton of minutes running the point for the Suns.

FanDuel

• Point Guard: Jordan Goodwin - $3600, 24.73 points
• Shooting Guard: Eric Gordon - $4700, 23.73 points
• Small Forward: Kevin Durant - $9800, 45.33 points
• Power Forward: Anthony Davis - $10300, 46.72 points
• Center: Joel Embiid - $11200, 52.09 points

It is possible to put together a nice lineup with Durant, Davis and Embiid in a stars and scrubs build as several scrubs should be able to get loose without Booker and Beal not in the mix for the Suns. And Goodwin’s low-price tag of $3600 should make him a popular play tonight.

Favorite Stack on FanDuel

Stacking the injured Suns tonight should pay off and Goodwin is that mix for me. While this lineup doesn’t include Durant, I’d find a way to try to get him in it unless you want to go contrarian and fade him.

• Point Guard: Jordan Goodwin - $3600, 24.73 points
• Shooting Guard: Eric Gordon - $4700, 23.73 points
• Small Forward: Josh Okogie - $5000, 27.25 points
• Power Forward: Drew Eubanks - $4600, 22.8 points
• Center: Joel Embiid - $11200, 52.09 points

Getting the use of the Contrarian Edge Optimizer for an entire week for just $1 is simply a deal too good to pass up. So hit the link, let the Optimizer set you some lineups, sit back and enjoy the NBA season.

Steezy A’s Week 8 DFS Bargain Bin

Apparently, only Chiefs WR Rashee Rice got the memo after I listed him as one of my ‘bargain bin’ guys last week; as for the others?

Let’s not speak on that.

Thankfully, it’s a new week - which means a new slate of players that can be had at cheaper than usual prices — and no bye weeks!

Week 8, here we go baby (all salaries courtesy of FanDuel).

QB: Derek Carr, New Orleans Saints ($6,600, QB26 at cost)

Coming off two straight weeks in which he’s attempted 50+ passes and passed for over 300+ yards in each of those games, Derek Carr has had a lot on his plate.

From a fantasy perspective, that has also coincided with his two best performances to date, scoring 17+ points in back-to-back weeks (standard PPR scoring leagues).

While the stat-stuffing hasn’t helped the Saints pick up dubs in the last two weeks, Carr’s Week 8 matchup is salivating on paper.

‍Enter the Indianapolis Colts, who have given up a WHOPPING 75 points combined in the last two weeks. To add injury to insult, starting rookie CB Juju Brents is expected to miss over a week due to a quadriceps injury he sustained last week, rendering an already suspect defense that much more vulnerable.

While the status of WR Chris Olave’s availability is unknown at this juncture, Carr will still have Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara to work with, not to mention Tayson Hill - who has 11 receptions for 99 receiving yards in the last two weeks (on 13 targets).

Given the plethora of weapons at his disposal, start Carr with confidence in Week 8.

RB: Gus Edwards, Baltimore Ravens ($6,600, RB24 at cost)

It’s not every week that Gus Edwards will total 80 receiving yards for both fantasy owners and the Baltimore Ravens (albeit on one catch against Detroit last week), but it’s also not every week that Edwards will go up against the Arizona Cardinals defense - hence why he’s my bargain of bargains at the running back position.

On the season, the Cardinals are allowing the 4th-most fantasy points to opposing RB’s, and if that wasn’t enough to get you hyped up about starting Edwards in fantasy, a positive game script should be.

As 8-point favorites (at the time of this writing), Edwards should also receive plenty of opportunities to score, as he’s also Baltimore’s preferred goal-line back (not including Lamar Jackson).

Here’s a fun stat for you: (shoutout to Lawrence Jackson of NBC Sports for this one)

The Cardinals have allowed at least 100 rushing yards to the opposing team’s lead back in four of their last five games.

If all goes according to plan and Baltimore is beating the same brakes off the Cardinals as they did the Lions last week, Edwards should FEAST in Week 8.

WR: Michael Thomas, New Orleans Saints ($6,000, WR42 at cost)

Another bargain play, another New Orleans Saint sighting (I also thought long and hard about Taysom Hill, so any Saints fan reading this - you’re welcome).

Needless to say, if you’re looking for a sneaky snack (particularly in DFS) this week, look no further than the tandem of Derek Carr and not Chris Olave, but Michael Thomas.

A true model of consistency, Thomas has yet to score below 9.3 fantasy points in any game this season, and we’re already almost eight weeks in.

Like I mentioned above with Derek Carr, the Colts defense is RIPE for strong performances from Saints skill position players, as they have been giving up points GALORE in the last two weeks.

If the Colts two-headed monster at RB in Jonathan Taylor and Zack Moss can keep the Saints defense on their heels, we could have an under-the-radar shootout on our hands in Week 8 between these two teams (ala Cleveland and Indiana last week)

As I always say, chase those players, chase those matchups, and chase those points because everyone eats!

WR: Calvin Ridley, Jacksonville Jaguars ($6,800, WR36 at cost)

How the mighty have fallen…. (cue the sad war music)

Just kidding.

Can we all cut Calvin Ridley some slack??? I get it, WR37 on the season and an average of 10.97 points per game simply is not going to cut it, especially for those that drafted Ridley to be their fantasy squad’s WR1.

I spoke to Jaguars Beat Reporter (Sports Illustrated) John Shipley recently and he essentially attributed Ridley’s struggles to a few things:

• Rust
• Jacksonville has had to compensate for a questionable offensive line in pass protection with quicker throws (one of the reasons why Christian Kirk is feasting) 
• A plethora of options in Jacksonville’s offense alongside of Ridley

(among other things)

Shipley also told me that he expects Ridley to start turning it up for the Jaguars come playoff time, which doesn’t do fantasy owners any favors I know. But if he’s going to pop off BEFORE the NFL postseason, it’ll be in Week 8 against the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Yes, they deserve some credit for holding Cooper Kupp to 2 receptions and 29 yards last week, but Puka Nacua went NUCLEAR with 8 receptions for 154 yards (on 12 targets).

The Steelers have also had a tendency to give up big plays and are allowing the third-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers.

If you’ve been patient with Ridley, now’s the time to unleash him.

TE: Gerald Everett, Los Angeles Chargers ($5,200, TE16 at cost)

Quietly becoming one of Justin Herbert’s favorite targets in the red zone, Gerald Everett has back-to-back weeks having scored a TD.

Against a team in the Bears (who are giving up the 12th-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends), Everett should be able to produce for the Chargers, who are DESPERATE for a win (they’ve lost three of their last five games).

Given the shallow nature of the tight end position, Everett might not be the sexiest option, but give me the starting tight end for a high-octane offense vs a young defense any week.

FLEX: Rhamondre Stevenson, New England Patriots ($6,400, RB28 at cost)

After a month of little-to-no-use in the passing game, Rhamondre Stevenson has back-to-back weeks with 5+ receptions and 6+ targets.

When he’s getting the ball, that usually means good things for the Patriots and their offense.

Given that his Patriots are the biggest underdogs of the Week 8 slate (according to DraftKings betting odds) at (+9.5), we might find the Patriots passing the ball a lot more than we’re accustomed to if they’re going to keep up with the Dolphins and their high-octane passing attack.

Sure, Ezekiel Elliot will continue to be sprinkled into the game plan as the team’s goal-line back, but just how often will the Patriots find themselves in that position?

You’re better off banking on the guy who's the primary pass-catcher in a matchup that could get out of hand in a jiffy in Stevenson. 

In a Desert of Byes, we find the Week 8 oasis. No teams on bye so we have access to a full slate of games when looking for our stacks to give us an edge. There are some sneaky high scoring games (I’m looking at you, Jax @ Pit) and a couple stinkers we’ll be avoiding (*cough* the battle of the New Jersey teams *cough*).

The whole point of stacking is to exploit correlations, taking the number of events you need to happen for success and cutting them down. A QB throwing a TD to a wide receiver on his team means you get credit for two touchdowns, passing and receiving, if you stacked those two players. If you are just starting studs across multiple teams, you need two touchdowns to get that same amount of points. It opens you up to bigger duds, but also means singular events on Sunday can have a bigger impact on your score.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Pittsburgh Steelers

• Trevor Lawrence ($6200 DraftKings, $7500 FanDuel)
• Christian Kirk ($5900 DraftKings, $7000 FanDuel)
• Diontae Johnson ($6400 DraftKings, $5000 FanDuel)

The Steelers are giving up the 2nd-most fantasy points per game to opposing WRs. The Jaguars are giving up the 2nd most passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks.

This game is going to have a lot of points scored and I want pieces on the winning side, i.e., Lawrence and the Jacksonville Squad.

Throwing away Week 1, Kirk hasn’t seen fewer than six targets (two games with double digit targets), hasn’t scored fewer than 13.9 PPR points and has finished as a WR2 or better in four of six weeks (the other two were still top-30 performances). While Calvin Ridley looked like that dude after Week 1, Kirk has made it clear he’s Lawrence’s preferred target.

Johnson walked straight on the field from being injured and immediately was heavily involved -- six targets in Week 7 and now a juicy matchup against a weak Jaguars secondary. Get Diontae in there as your bring-back player in this game.

Baltimore Ravens @ Arizona Cardinals

• Lamar Jackson ($8100 DraftKings, $8800 FanDuel)
• Zay Flowers ($6500 DraftKings, $5600 FanDuel)

Call it chasing points, but Jackson is ON right now and just reasserted himself as an MVP frontrunner in a dominant 4-touchdown performance against the Lions in Week 7. We’re running it back against a weak Cardinals defense.

The Cardinals are giving up the 4th-most points per week to opposing quarterbacks and the 6th-most points to opposing WRs. We’re matching a weak defense with an elite offense and an emerging rookie weapon.

Flowers has seen fewer than six targets only twice this season as a rookie and has seen double-digit targets on three occasions. On a team where it seemed predetermined that Mark Andrews would be the top target, Flowers is doing his best to take over as the team’s No. 1. The Cardinals have been surprisingly stingy against opposing tight ends, so roll with Lamar’s other favorite option for the stack this week.

Houston Texans @ Carolina Panthers

• C.J. Stroud ($6300 DraftKings, $7400 FanDuel)
• Tank Dell ($4900 DraftKings, $6000 FanDuel)

The Panther defense has been absolutely porous against the run, but the Texans have been unable to get things going on the ground. Dameon Pierce has the 9th-most carries in the league but is 28th in yardage. That’s not a recipe for winning games and the Texans should rely on their rookie QB to bring home the W.

It’s like a concussion and a bye week made everyone forget how good of a receiver Tank Dell was through the first five weeks. Consistency likely won’t be there for the rookie, but his first week back coming off a bye against a beatable secondary is a week I’m willing to take a shot.

Save some money to spend big on the rest of this full slate. Dell and Stroud will get it done in Carolina.