October 11, 2023
NBA

Check Out These NBA 'Post-Hype Sleepers'

These former disappointments could have bounce-back seasons
Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

In case you’re wondering, a post-hype sleeper is a player who may have disappointed us in the past but we think is going to have a bounce-back season. I suppose this could be injury or performance related so you’ll see a mixture of both here. Let’s dive right in.

LaMelo Ball PG Hornets

Injuries are a concern with Ball and limited him to just 36 games last season and 51 games as a rookie. He was on track for a monster season before an ankle injury that required surgery shut him down early, but he was averaging 23.3 points, 6.4 rebounds, 8.4 assists, 1.3 steals and 4.0 3-pointers per game before being shut down. His ability to stay healthy will always be the biggest concern with Melo but he’ll be a top-10 player if he can stay on the court.

Trae Young G Hawks

Young had to adjust to playing alongside Dejounte Murray last season and also constantly heard his own name in trade rumors on Atlanta radio while playing with a mediocre supporting cast. He still produced solid numbers with 26.2 points, 3.0 rebounds, a career-high 10.2 assists, 1.1 steals and 2.1 3-pointers in 73 games. The scoring and triples were a bit of a letdown, but the assists and steals helped make up for it. Chances are he’s learned how to coexist with Murray heading into his sixth NBA season and he’ll be looking to build on his 2021-22 season after a bit of a down year last season.

More on the NBA:

Cade Cunningham PG Pistons

Cunningham only played in 12 games last season before succumbing to shin surgery but is healthy and the best player on a young team. He was cooking before being shut down, averaging 19.9 points, 6.2 rebound, 6.0 assists, 0.8 steals, 0.6 blocks and 1.4 3-pointers in 33 minutes per game. It’s possible the Pistons reel in his minutes a bit to keep him healthy, but he’s primed for a monster fantasy season if he can stay on the court for 70-plus games.

Chet Holmgren C Thunder

Holmgren missed the entire season with a foot injury but has looked fantastic in preseason. He’s skinny as a bean pole but can score, rebound, block shots and knock down 3-pointers at will and looks like a value pick in Round 4 of fantasy drafts. He could easily finish with second-round value if he stays healthy.

Devin Vassell SG Spurs

Vassell was cooking last season before missing a couple months with a knee injury and will be playing alongside Victor Wembanyama. While Wemby gets all the headlines in San Antonio, Vassell should not be forgotten after averaging 18.5 points, 3.9 rebounds, 3.6 assists, 1.1 steals and 2.7 3-pointers in 38 games. The Spurs will turn him loose, he’s fully healthy and should be an incredibly fun fantasy player to roster as he enters his fourth season.

Alperen Sengun C Rockets

Sengun took a nice step forward last season, averaging 14.8 points, 9.0 rebounds, 3.9 assists, 0.9 steals, 0.9 blocks and 0.3 3-pointers, shooting 55.3 percent from the floor and 71.5 percent from the line. He took a big leap from his rookie numbers and we’re expecting another step forward as he enters year three. A full breakout season should be coming for Sengun as long as he can stay healthy.

Deandre Ayton C Blazers

Ayton will be starting at center and won’t have to compete with guys like Devin Booker, Kevin Durant and Damian Lillard for shots. Ayton had five solid seasons in Phoenix but probably needed a change of scenery. He averaged 18 points, 10 rebounds and 0.8 blocks last season and should be more of a focal point offensively for his new team. He’s averaged a double-double in each of his five seasons and it wouldn’t be surprising to see him clock in with 21 points, 11.5 rebounds and 1.5 blocks this season. Phoenix fans may regret losing Ayton at some point and he should be ready to play well in Portland.

Anfernee Simons PG Blazers

Damian Lillard is now in Milwaukee, clearing the way for Simons to either start at point guard (in front of Scoot Henderson) or shooting guard. He’s been a fun fantasy fill-in whenever Lillard has been out in the past and he no longer has to deal with having Lillard dominating the offense. Simons averaged 21.1 points, 2.6 rebounds, 4.1 assists, 0.7 steals and 3.4 3-pointers in 62 starts last season and could be the leading scorer for the Blazers. If he can get more steals, the sky’s the limit.

Cameron Johnson SG/SF Nets

Johnson had a mini-breakout after being traded to the Nets from the Suns last season and averaged 16.6 points, 4.8 rebounds, 2.1 assists, 1.4 steals, 0.3 blocks and 2.3 3-pointers in 25 games for Brooklyn. The points, boards, dimes and steals were all career highs and he should be a focal point on offense for the Nets. After Mikal Bridges, Johnson looks like the Nets’ second best player and should be able to build on last season’s success.

Andrew Wiggins SF Warriors

Wiggins missed a ton of time last year with various injuries and an extended personal leave, averaging 17.1 points, 5.0 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 1.2 steals, 0.8 blocks and 2.4 3-pointers in just 37 games. He’s back and healthy and should return to the form that made him an All-Star starter a couple years ago. Averages of 19 points, 5.0 rebounds, 3.0 assists, a steal, a block and 2.5 3-pointers aren’t out of the question and he can be had in the middle to later rounds of most drafts.

Shaedon Sharpe SG Blazers

Sharpe averaged just 9.9 points, 3.0 rebounds, 1.2 assists, 0.5 steals, 0.3 blocks and 1.3 3-pointers in 80 games for the Blazers last season. But those numbers jumped up to 18.5 points, 4.9 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 0.7 steals, 0.4 blocks and 2.3 3-pointers in his 15 starts and the Blazers will look to him for offense. He’s one of the most exciting dunkers in the game and a full breakout season could be coming for a team looking for a young player to help replace the scoring of Damian Lillard, who is now in Milwaukee.

Dennis Schroder PG Raptors

Fred VanVleet is now in Houston and Schroder is the default starter at point guard for the Raptors. As long as they don’t turn to Scottie Barnes at the point, Schroder should be primed for a fun fantasy season. The journeyman averaged 12.6 points, 2.5 rebounds, 4.5 assists, 0.8 steals and 1.1 3-pointers for the Lakers last season but it wouldn’t be surprising to see him average closer to 15 points for his new team. He’ll be available late in drafts and should see 30 minutes per game, making him a nice sleeper candidate.

Miles Bridges PF Hornets

Bridges will miss the first 10 games after last year’s domestic violence issues, but once the suspension is over, he could go off. The last time we saw him play was in the 2021-22 season when he averaged 20.2 points, 7.0 rebounds, 3.8 assists, 0.9 steals, 0.8 blocks and 1.9 3-pointers. He’ll have to compete with P.J. Washington for minutes but if he’s in shape, Bridges should come in hungry, healthy and ready to get back to the business of basketball. There are worse ways to use a 10th-round fantasy pick.

Keegan Murray PF Kings

Murray was underwhelming as a rookie, averaging just 12.2 points, 4.6 rebounds, 1.2 assists, 0.8 steals, 0.5 blocks and 2.6 3-pointers in 29.8 minutes over 78 games. If he can increase his scoring to 18 points, as well as build on his other stats, he could be a key asset to fantasy managers. He’s already a strong 3-point shooter and has looked more aggressive getting to the rack in the preseason. Murray appears to be poised to take a big step forward in Year 2 and shouldn’t be expensive.

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Weather Report:

There are only three games on the slate today and none should be impacted by precipitation.

Injury Report:

Jorge Soler - Hip - He left Tuesday’s contest against the Rays with right hip tightness. He is considered day-to-day and could be ready to go against the Nationals.

Lane Thomas - Back - He was lifted prior to the seventh inning due to back soreness. It doesn’t sound serious but there is a chance he sits out Thursday.

Mitch Haniger - Rest - Haniger returned from the injured list on Tuesday and sat out against a righty but the team said it was only due to rest. He should be ready to go on Thursday.

Starting Pitchers (DK-FD)

Spencer Strider: 12,500-12,000

Lance Lynn: 8,800-9,500

Braxton Garrett: 8,200-8,700

Pedro Avila: 6,300-6,700

Joan Adon: 5,400-6,400

Sean Manaea: 5,000-7,300

Spencer Strider is the highest-priced pitcher for the slate, which shouldn’t be surprising. He easily leads the slate with a 2.75 SIERA, 1.06 WHIP, and 38 percent strikeout rate. His 1.06 HR/9 is the highest of his career, without taking the two game appearance in the majors late in 2021 into account. His 60 percent HR/Barrel rate is above league average, which indicates that he could be getting a bit unlucky with the long ball. He faces a tough team in the Dodgers which makes the 12K+ price tag a bit steep.

Strider gets to go toe-to-toe with Lance Lynn in the last game in the slate on Tuesday. To say that Lynn has had an up-and-down season is a bit of an understatement. Lynn has a 3.99 SIERA, 1.38 WHIP, and 26 percent strikeout rate on the season but most of the damage was done while he was a member of the Chicago White Sox. Since joining the Dodgers, he has a 4.30 SIERA, 1.06 WHIP, and 21 percent strikeout rate. He faces a very tough task of facing the Braves in Dodgers Stadium. Since both of these pitchers face uphill battles, going cheap on the pitching while loading up on bats, could work tonight.

Braxton Garrett gets to face the Nationals for the second game in a row. Last time out, he allowed three runs over six innings while only picking up three strikeouts. This time around, he will be in the Nationals home ballpark, which has been below league average when it comes to the long ball, especially with the forecast projecting the winds to be blowing into the ballpark.

Batter to Target

Joan Adon is a pitcher that could be easily exploited in this small slate. His 4.44 SIERA is easily the worst of the group ad Nationals Park is a bit hitter-friendly this season. While the Marlins hitters have struggled in the second of the season Jake Burger ($4,100 on DK and $3,000 on FanDuel) could be an option for fantasy managers looking some cheap power.

Stack Attack

Marlins (Braxton Garrett) vs. Nationals:

DK-FD

Lane Thomas: 4,900-3,200

Keibert Ruiz: 4,000-2,600

Joey Meneses: 4,400-2,700

If Lane Thomas is ready to go on Thursday, he is a must add. The 28-year-old is hitting .346/.393/.591 with eight homers and nine stolen bases against southpaws this season. Ruiz and Meneses also have been above league average against left-handed pitching while hitting towards the top of the Nationals lineup.

Giants (Manaea) vs. Padres:

DK-FD

Ha-Seong Kim: 4,900-3,100

Gary Sanchez: 3,800-2,600

Garrett Cooper: 2,900-2,400

Trent Grisham: 2,800-2,500

The Giants haven’t officially named a starter for Thursday’s contest against the Padres but Sean Manaea figures to fill in as the bulk reliever. Ha-Seong Kim has been out of his mind in the second half of the season, while posting a season long line of .329/.413/.579 with eight homers and ten stolen bases against left-handed pitching. Sánchez and Grisham have also hit above league average against lefties and can be add at some really low prices. Cooper has moved up to sixth in the Padres batting order after Jake Cronenworth landed on the injured list with a fractured wrist. If the Padres bats come to life at the top of the order, you could pick up some RBIs at a considerably low price point.

It’s another full slate of games Wednesday, and there are more than a handful of interesting options to gander over. Colorado-Atlanta provides some intriguing value, but a ‘lesser’ game like Kansas City taking on Pittsburgh also offers intrigue.

Here are tonight’s Underdog and Prizepicks plays for Wednesday’s MLB slate.

Bobby Witt Jr. 1.5 Total Bases - Higher (Underdog)

It’d be hard to overstate just how good the Royals' infielder has been in August, as the young star has hit.327/.379/.626 with eight homers while stealing nine bags and driving in 21 runs even for a weak team. On Wednesday, he’ll go up against the Pirates' Andre Jackson; who pitched decently over his last two starts but offers plenty of opportunity with less-than-spectacular stuff. Don’t be surprised if Witt Jr. offers a combo meal with a homer and a steal, and he’s a good bet to reach the over on that 1.5 total.

Nolan Jones : 1.5 Total Bases - Higher (Prizepicks)

Somewhat quietly, Jones has been one of the better rookies in baseball, coming into Wednesday with a slash of .271/.353/.488. He’ll get a chance to place in the friendly confines of Coors Field, and the former Cleveland prospect will also get a chance to face a right-hander who is making his MLB debut in Darius Vines. Jones is hitless in his last three games, and while that makes things a little more nerve-wracking, it also means he’s due for a big game.

Matt Olson: 0.5 RBI - More (Prizepicks)

Olson will be going up against a lefty in Kyle Freeland, and while he is statistically worse against southpaws than he is righties, worse is a subjective term considering he’s posted an .891 OPS with nine homers and 27 RBI over his 125 plate appearances. Add in the fact he’ll be playing in the friendly confines of Coors Field with some elite hitters hitting in front of him, and Olson is as good of a bet for an RBI as any player Wednesday.

Dane Dunning: 4.0 strikeouts - Higher (Underdog)

Dunning has been able to miss bats at much higher rate as of late, with 39 strikeouts over 29.2 innings of work in his five starts thus far in August. The Mets certainly offer a chance for missed bats, and are not exactly in striking distance for a playoff spot. Dunning should be able to hit his mark as long as he can throw enough strikes to do so; something he admittedly struggled with Friday against the Twins.

Brandon Pfaadt : 4.5 Strikeouts - Lower (Underdog)

There’s reason for long-term upside with Pfaadt, as he was one of the best minor-league hurlers in baseball in 2022, and there have been some flashes of brilliance in 2023 despite his ugly 5.91 ERA and 1.36 WHIP over 67 innings during his rookie campaign. Asking him to reach this total is asking him to work deep against the Dodgers, a lineup that is as feared as any in all of baseball. There’s just too much risk on betting overs with Pfaadt against this kind of team.

The Houston Astros have terrorized the Boston Red Sox this week, putting up 19 runs over the last two games, both of which started by two of Boston’s best pitchers, Chris Sale and Brayan Bello.

Sale and Bello kept the games close, giving up three and two earned runs respectively, but the bullpen couldn’t contain Houston’s bats. Jose Altuve hit for the cycle in the first game, and Yordan Álvarez homered in both games, hitting seven for nine over the two nights.

Vlad Jr Could Go Off Wednesday

The Contrarian Edge Optimizer likes the idea of doubling down on the Astros stack -- a lineup that tied a franchise record 66 hits in the last four games -- but there are also alternatives to consider. Specifically, take a look at Toronto and Seattle. Both have excellent matchups today, so let’s take a closer look.

The Blue Jays face off against Patrick Corbin and the Nationals at the Rogers Centre this afternoon. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ($5000) could be poised for a big day. He’s riding a 10-game hitting streak, during which time he's slashing .302/.333/.438 with two home runs.

If you’re looking for some cheaper options to round out your lineup, keep an eye on both Blue Jays catchers. Danny Jansen ($3600) and Alejandro Kirk ($3000) are each available for less than $4000 on Draft Kings and rostering them should allow you a few extra dollars to roster a top tier bat or one of the three best pitchers on today’s card.

Either Santiago Espinal ($2400) or Whit Merrifield ($4400) could offer hits and runs if the Blue Jays put it together. And don’t sleep on George Springer ($4700), who’s been back in the leadoff spot this series and has put together a really nice run with a five-game hitting streak.

No August swoon for Seattle bats

The Mariners bats were momentarily silenced at T-Mobile Park on Tuesday night, but they’ve been red hot this month, leading the team to a 20-6 record in August. They should stack up nicely against Zach Neal, who’s starting for Oakland for the first time since 2016.

The Mariners have been excellent against right-handed pitchers this season, hitting .240/.323/.419 with a team wRC+ of 108 this season. During their hot streak this August, those numbers are even more impressive -- .279/.363/.486 and a wRC+ of 138 against right-handed pitching.

The Optimizer likes Seattle's Teoscar Hernandez ($4500) as one of your outfielders, and you could do worse than supplementing his production with leadoff man JP Crawford ($4300). Third baseman Eugenio Suarez ($4600) offers some nice pop and while you should avoid Julio Rodriguez, who is day-to-day after a late scratch on Tuesday night, Dominic Canzone ($3000) is a very cost-effective option who’s been on a nice run over the last 10 days, hitting .306/.306/.500.

Pitchers to consider

As for pitching, the wind is blowing in at Wrigley Field, and the Brewers' Brandon Woodruff ($10200) has looked every bit like the ace we know he can be since coming back from the injured list. He’s thrown 22.2 innings across four starts with 29 strikeouts, and only the Rangers scored more than two runs against Woodruff since his return.

Another pitcher to consider is the Giants' Logan Webb ($9500), who has gone five or more innings in 18 of 19 starts this season – including a seven-inning start with seven strikeouts against the Reds at Great American Ballpark in July.

Oracle is a much more pitcher-friendly environment, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Webb surpass that strikeout total from July with a free-swinging Reds team that ranks 25th in MLB with a 24.5 percent strikeout rate.

There are 15 MLB games on tap for Tuesday and a ton of opportunities to cash. The Seattle Mariners-Oakland Athletics game is very intriguing on both sides, and the Mariners have been one of the hottest hitting teams in baseball over the last few weeks. Here are tonight’s Underdog and Prizepicks plays for Tuesday’s MLB slate.

Teoscar Hernandez: 1.5 Total Bases - Higher (Underdog)
Hernandez has been excellent against left-handed pitchers and Ken Waldichuk has let up six hits or more in three of his last four starts, and he’s sporting an earned run average over six.

He’s hit the over on one and a half total bases in seven straight games. He’s homered three times in his last three contests. Hernandez is scorching hot hitting the ball in August, and he sits with a .371 batting average this month. Waldichuk has been a weaker pitcher on the road than at home, and tonight’s game is in Seattle.

Ty France: 0.5 Singles - Higher (Underdog)
France has singled in five of his last seven contests, and he hits way better against lefties, hitting .309 against them. France is having one of his better hitting months as he’s batting .284 in August. Waldichuk is more of a groundball pitcher, and France hits over 42 percent when it comes to ground balls. Between the amount of hits Waldichuk has given up lately, his struggles on the road and France having a strong month at the dish, he should be able to get on base this evening.

Ken Waldichuk: 5.5 Hits Allowed - More (Prizepicks)
With Waldichuk giving up at least six hits in a few starts recently, it’s hard to think that he’ll be able to shut down the Mariners who have been the best hitting team by average in the MLB over the last two weeks and third best over the last seven days. Waldichuk has a 7.43 earned run average, and opponents hit .303 against him when he’s starting on the road. Seattle hits .262 against left-handed pitchers which is the 8th highest in the majors.

Jose Altuve: 2.0 Hits+Runs+RBIs - Higher (Underdog)
Altuve has crossed the plate nine times total over his last three games. During that span he hit the ball seven times and produced five RBIs. Altuve hits .335 against right-handed pitchers, and even though Boston Red Sox pitcher Brayan Bello hasn’t given up a ton of runs in his starts recently, he’s allowed six hits or more in five straight starts. Last week in this exact matchup, Bello gave up nine hits against Houston, and since then, Altuve has heated up. Altuve has also been a better hitter on the road than at home, and this game is in Boston.

Manny Machado: 0.5 Singles - Higher (Underdog)
Machado has been reaching base a lot lately. Tonight, he faces St. Louis Cardinals pitcher Zack Thompson who is not only a lefty, but he’s surrendered six hits in both of his last two outings. Machado hits .327 against left-handed pitchers and he’s hit a single in three of his last five games.

Marcus Semien: 0.5 Singles - Higher (Underdog)
Semien hits better against left-handed pitchers than right-handed pitchers. He’s hit singles in four of his last seven games, and the Rangers' bats have woken up a bit in the last week. Semien has a good history against New York Mets pitcher Jose Quintana, hitting the ball six times in 13 at-bats against him. He has the most hits for the Rangers this season.