About my ‘fade Chase’ thoughts last week — let’s just say Joe Burrow single-handedly changed the trajectory behind that analysis (as I initially didn’t expect him to play in Week 3) so I will NOT be fading a top-5 player at his position — because this week I might just mess around and do it!
Buckle up y’all, it’s time for some ‘Fade ‘Em Up Friday’ thoughts! (all salaries courtesy of FanDuel.)
QB: Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens ($8,200, QB4 at cost)
In going up against arguably the best defense in the NFL (statistically speaking), Jackson might be in for a rough outing.
The Browns are No. 1 in total defense, giving up an average of just 163.7 yards per game, and are the only team that has allowed less than 500 total yards through the first three weeks. They're first in scoring defense, giving up 10.7 points per game and are the only team that has given up less than 35 points.
- Cody's Rankings: WR | RB | QB | TE-K-Def.
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- Steezy's Fades: Get Off the Mike Evans Train Now
- TD Props: These Broncos Will Be Bucking
- Go with These TEs in Week 4 Pick 'Ems
- Week 4 Stacks: Go Chalk, Go Contrarian
- Bargain Bin: Burrow Is Ready to Show He's Back
- The Best and Worst from Lions-Packers
- Vegas Lines: In Ron You Should Trust
Coupled with Baltimore-Cleveland being the projected lowest-scoring game (39.5) of the weekend, elite fantasy production might not be there for the former MVP.
To make matters worse, Odell Beckham Jr and Rashod Bateman have yet to practice for Baltimore this week and are likely to miss Sunday’s divisional showdown.
It’s not that Lamar won’t put up fantasy points, it’s just that you can find cheaper alternatives with similar statistical outputs.
RB: Rachaad White, Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($6,900, RB13 at cost)
White is averaging just 3.1 yards per carry and I’m not sure that number goes up this weekend vs the Saints, who are top 10 in rushing defense (99.7 ypg).
White’s calling card was supposed to be pass-catching ability out of the backfield – coupled with Baker Mayfield’s penchant for checking down – but he hasn't eclipsed 5 receptions nor 30+ yards receiving in any game.
In a tough divisional matchup that’s expected to be low-scoring, I’m not high on White and he’s not worthy of a top 15 salary at RB.
WR: Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($8,000, WR7 at cost)
Evans has been BALLING, but what goes up, must come down.
The thing about segments such as this one where I’m “fading” guys in fantasy isn’t my favorite subject to write about, as often people misunderstand your usage of ‘fading’ as ‘hating’ a player, or ignoring how a player has been performing (no matter how many times you try to preface).
It’s not necessarily the comments from others that bug me, it’s that I’m able to – sometimes, at least – foreshadow the truth when others can’t. I usually find myself on an island and, for the most part, nobody wants to be all alone on an island.
All of this to say, the matchup just isn’t it for me when it comes to Evans in Week 4.
Since his rookie season in 2014, Evans has averaged ‘just’ 50 yards per game along with 3.24 receptions against the Saints, numbers well below his standard. He hasn’t topped 70 yards receiving in his last eight games against the Saints, dating back to 2019.
I know everyone is hopping on the Evans train right now, but if you’re one of the lucky few reading this, I highly advise you get off that train for Week 4 before it crashes.
TE: Dallas Goedert, Philadelphia Eagles ($5,900, TE5 at cost)
Having yet to eclipse six receptions or 41 yards in any game (including a Week 1 doughnut in the box score), Goedert is currently the TE27. That’s a far cry from the TE1 production we’re accustomed to seeing.
Perhaps he’s moved even further down the pecking order in that loaded Eagles offense? Whatever it may be, fade Goedert in Week 4.
I don’t know what it is, but Washington almost always plays the Eagles tough -- particularly in Philadelphia, where the Commanders have won two of the last three matchups.
To top it off, the Commanders have yet to allow a TE to record over 23 yards receiving. With a solid and underrated group of linebackers and safeties, I don’t expect that number to change.
You can find more upside at TE while spending significantly less at the position.
FLEX: Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals ($7,400, RB9 at cost)
Volume will always serve Mixon, especially in fantasy world – albeit relatively inefficiently.
But what happens when somebody who relies almost exclusively on volume (in addition to passes thrown his way out of the backfield) runs into a literal wall? By wall I mean the Tennessee Titans defense, who have been lethal defending the run.
Tennessee is first in the NFL in fewest yards per carry allowed, at 2.6, and fourth rushing yards allowed per game at 69.3. No one has run for more than 45 yards against the Titans, and I’m not sure Mixon will be the first.
Joe Burrow might still not be 100% healthy and that hypothetically would mean Cincy running more. However, the RB9 price is too much to spend on Mixon when the matchup is about as bad as it could be.
Leave Mixon on your bench this week if you have other alternatives at RB.
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