September 25, 2023
NFL

There Were Studs, There Were Duds

The Jets look bad, the Dolphins look unstoppable
Sep 24, 2023; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Indianapolis Colts running back Zack Moss (21) rushes during the first half against the Baltimore Ravens at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

If you’re reading this, I can only assume you’re a Swiftie and you want to see how many Taylor Swift lyrical puns I can plug into my NFL recap article. Well, I’m telling you right now you need to calm down because It’s karma that I didn’t Google anything about Taylor Swift for this article.

All I did was look at my underperforming fantasy teams, shake it off, identified my anti-hero, and realized I now have bad blood with players like Joshua Kelley.

And now, something y’all know all too well, the weekly recap!

10 Studs
  1. The Dolphins: THEY SCORED 70 POINTS
  2. Keenan Allen: 18 rec., 215 yds, 1 *passing* TD
  3. Davante Adams: 13 rec., 172 yds, 2 TDs
  4. Adam Thielen: 11 rec., 145 yds, 1 TD
  5. Ken Walker: 156 total yds, 2 TDs
  6. Tank Dell: 145 yds., 1 TD
  7. Zack Moss: 145 total yds, 1 TD
  8. Lamar Jackson: 202 passing yds, 101 rushing yds, 2 TDs
  9. Sam LaPorta: 8 rec., 84 yds, 1 TD
  10. The Browns Trio of Watson/Cooper/Ford: The Browns offense clicked!

Is 10 touchdowns a lot? I think 10 touchdowns is a lot of touchdowns but let me confirm. They were 3 points shy of the all-time NFL record for points in a game and scored the most points in a game since 1966. I guess 10 touchdowns is pretty good.

We wrote about Raheem Mostert (MustStart) last week, and he didn’t disappoint -- 142 total yards and four touchdowns will make you look like a genius. But he was overshadowed by rookie running mate De’Von Achane, who racked up 203 on the ground and another 30 through the air on his way to his own four touchdowns.

The offense can handle both players and that’s obvious, so feel free to throw some trades out there. Oh, by the way, Tua Tagovailoa passed for 309 and four touchdowns with Tyreek Hill adding in 157 yards and a touchdown. They didn’t even have Jaylen Waddle! Invest in this offense and feel good about it going forward.

Keenan Allen made our recap last week and he kept rolling. Maybe he was mad we called him old? 18 grabs on 20 targets and he even chipped in a trick play passing touchdown to Mike Williams.

The offense was looking like it finally figured it out under new OC Kellen Moore, but now Williams looks like he’s lost for the season. Justin Herbert and Allen should continue to feast, but if you need another option in the offense, maybe look to add Quentin Johnston or Joshua Palmer.

Davante Adams is the NFL equipment to the Ol’ Reliable SpongeBob meme. Jimmy G went to him early and often Sunday night and it was the performance we’re used to from one of the NFL’s best. We should see it all season for a Vegas team that isn’t replicating Josh Jacobs’ success last year in the ground game and a leaky defense.

Here’s a non-fantasy tip if you’re a gambler: some books offer “player to catch a pass on this drive” props during primetime games. Some offered Adams at plus money. Some of them got lit up. Adams plays his old team Green Bay in week 5 on Monday Night Football. Keep an eye on it.

I wrote off Adam Thielen. He disappointed for the Viking last year and went to a rebuilding Carolina Panthers team. He basically pulled an Undertaker gif in real life this weekend with 11 grabs for 145 yards and a touchdown. Will it continue? I think it would be smart to keep the same formula when Bryce Young returns from injury, but in the meantime, his connection with Andy Dalton is clear.

Seattle turned to Kenneth Walker III when they needed him. He got the carries around the goal line and scored 2 touchdowns. It’s a good sign for those worried about Zach Charbonnet grabbing work from him especially where it counts. Charbonnet carried it nine times to K9’s 18,  but it looks like Walker will be the guy the Seahawks (and fantasy owners) turn to when they need it most.

Nico Collins walked last week so Tank Dell could run. Or Collins ran last week so Dell could also run, but faster? I haven’t worked out the exact details yet but there’s something there, just like there’s something there for a surprising Texans passing attack. It’ll be tough to decide who will be the alpha between Collins and Dell each week, but both will have their chances. That also means C.J. Stroud might be worth a look in your DFS lineups or, at the very least, he’ll be an enticing option in some of your season long matchups.

Zack Moss? Zack Moss. That’s two weeks in a row where he’s looked good for the Colts -- 122 yards on the ground and a receiving touchdown has me intrigued. Mostly because it looks like he can chip in no matter who is at quarterback.

Lamar Jackson has been a stud, that’s not news. But the Ravens are so banged up they need him to be the MVP. It’s probably not the strategy they hoped for, but hero ball Lamar isn’t the worst strategy in the world. It might be tough to find passing touchdowns some weeks, but his legs will keep Baltimore, and fantasy owners, in the game weekly.  

Sam LaPorta is putting together a historic season so far -- 18 catches through three games, the most ever for a rookie tight end. Detroit believes in him as their second option in the offense. LaPorta is a weekly plug and play TE1.

The Browns didn’t get many people excited through two weeks. A Week 1 slugfest in the rain followed by a devastating injury to Nick Chubb had me questioning what team would come out of Cleveland.

Deshaun Watson had to step up sans Chubb, and he did this week, throwing for 289 yards and two touchdowns while clicking with Amari Cooper (116 and 1 touchdown). It had me thinking about the Texans Deshaun from a few years ago.

The caution is Jerome Ford, who turned in only 18 yards on the ground and 33 through the air. The two touchdowns he had looked good, but I’m not sold on him being the replacement for Chubb.

The Duds

It's dud time, and Broncos country, let’s ride! Losing by 50 to the Dolphins is bad, and I’m sorry if you had the Broncos defense for some reason. I will say Russell Wilson hasn’t looked bad the past two weeks with over 300 yards each game while his defense was getting torched. The rushing offense has also been a dud. Sean Payton’s Mile High Era isn’t going as planned so far.

The Jets running back situation is a nightmare. The Jets are pretty much a nightmare. The Aaron Rodgers injury situation is dragging the team down with an anchor by the name of Zach Wilson. I’m not confident in any Jet in my lineup.

Daniel Jones caps things off. A 5-point fantasy game, a 35-point fantasy game, a 5-point fantasy game. That’s the Daniel Jones experience, or more so the Giants experience. Yes, two of those games were against formidable defenses in Dallas and San Francisco, but even the rushing wasn’t there.

Which Jones are you going to get weekly? Who knows! Will it be fun? It won’t! The Seahawks are next so hope for the best.

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Other News

Weather Report:

There are only three games on the slate today and none should be impacted by precipitation.

Injury Report:

Jorge Soler - Hip - He left Tuesday’s contest against the Rays with right hip tightness. He is considered day-to-day and could be ready to go against the Nationals.

Lane Thomas - Back - He was lifted prior to the seventh inning due to back soreness. It doesn’t sound serious but there is a chance he sits out Thursday.

Mitch Haniger - Rest - Haniger returned from the injured list on Tuesday and sat out against a righty but the team said it was only due to rest. He should be ready to go on Thursday.

Starting Pitchers (DK-FD)

Spencer Strider: 12,500-12,000

Lance Lynn: 8,800-9,500

Braxton Garrett: 8,200-8,700

Pedro Avila: 6,300-6,700

Joan Adon: 5,400-6,400

Sean Manaea: 5,000-7,300

Spencer Strider is the highest-priced pitcher for the slate, which shouldn’t be surprising. He easily leads the slate with a 2.75 SIERA, 1.06 WHIP, and 38 percent strikeout rate. His 1.06 HR/9 is the highest of his career, without taking the two game appearance in the majors late in 2021 into account. His 60 percent HR/Barrel rate is above league average, which indicates that he could be getting a bit unlucky with the long ball. He faces a tough team in the Dodgers which makes the 12K+ price tag a bit steep.

Strider gets to go toe-to-toe with Lance Lynn in the last game in the slate on Tuesday. To say that Lynn has had an up-and-down season is a bit of an understatement. Lynn has a 3.99 SIERA, 1.38 WHIP, and 26 percent strikeout rate on the season but most of the damage was done while he was a member of the Chicago White Sox. Since joining the Dodgers, he has a 4.30 SIERA, 1.06 WHIP, and 21 percent strikeout rate. He faces a very tough task of facing the Braves in Dodgers Stadium. Since both of these pitchers face uphill battles, going cheap on the pitching while loading up on bats, could work tonight.

Braxton Garrett gets to face the Nationals for the second game in a row. Last time out, he allowed three runs over six innings while only picking up three strikeouts. This time around, he will be in the Nationals home ballpark, which has been below league average when it comes to the long ball, especially with the forecast projecting the winds to be blowing into the ballpark.

Batter to Target

Joan Adon is a pitcher that could be easily exploited in this small slate. His 4.44 SIERA is easily the worst of the group ad Nationals Park is a bit hitter-friendly this season. While the Marlins hitters have struggled in the second of the season Jake Burger ($4,100 on DK and $3,000 on FanDuel) could be an option for fantasy managers looking some cheap power.

Stack Attack

Marlins (Braxton Garrett) vs. Nationals:

DK-FD

Lane Thomas: 4,900-3,200

Keibert Ruiz: 4,000-2,600

Joey Meneses: 4,400-2,700

If Lane Thomas is ready to go on Thursday, he is a must add. The 28-year-old is hitting .346/.393/.591 with eight homers and nine stolen bases against southpaws this season. Ruiz and Meneses also have been above league average against left-handed pitching while hitting towards the top of the Nationals lineup.

Giants (Manaea) vs. Padres:

DK-FD

Ha-Seong Kim: 4,900-3,100

Gary Sanchez: 3,800-2,600

Garrett Cooper: 2,900-2,400

Trent Grisham: 2,800-2,500

The Giants haven’t officially named a starter for Thursday’s contest against the Padres but Sean Manaea figures to fill in as the bulk reliever. Ha-Seong Kim has been out of his mind in the second half of the season, while posting a season long line of .329/.413/.579 with eight homers and ten stolen bases against left-handed pitching. Sánchez and Grisham have also hit above league average against lefties and can be add at some really low prices. Cooper has moved up to sixth in the Padres batting order after Jake Cronenworth landed on the injured list with a fractured wrist. If the Padres bats come to life at the top of the order, you could pick up some RBIs at a considerably low price point.

It’s another full slate of games Wednesday, and there are more than a handful of interesting options to gander over. Colorado-Atlanta provides some intriguing value, but a ‘lesser’ game like Kansas City taking on Pittsburgh also offers intrigue.

Here are tonight’s Underdog and Prizepicks plays for Wednesday’s MLB slate.

Bobby Witt Jr. 1.5 Total Bases - Higher (Underdog)

It’d be hard to overstate just how good the Royals' infielder has been in August, as the young star has hit.327/.379/.626 with eight homers while stealing nine bags and driving in 21 runs even for a weak team. On Wednesday, he’ll go up against the Pirates' Andre Jackson; who pitched decently over his last two starts but offers plenty of opportunity with less-than-spectacular stuff. Don’t be surprised if Witt Jr. offers a combo meal with a homer and a steal, and he’s a good bet to reach the over on that 1.5 total.

Nolan Jones : 1.5 Total Bases - Higher (Prizepicks)

Somewhat quietly, Jones has been one of the better rookies in baseball, coming into Wednesday with a slash of .271/.353/.488. He’ll get a chance to place in the friendly confines of Coors Field, and the former Cleveland prospect will also get a chance to face a right-hander who is making his MLB debut in Darius Vines. Jones is hitless in his last three games, and while that makes things a little more nerve-wracking, it also means he’s due for a big game.

Matt Olson: 0.5 RBI - More (Prizepicks)

Olson will be going up against a lefty in Kyle Freeland, and while he is statistically worse against southpaws than he is righties, worse is a subjective term considering he’s posted an .891 OPS with nine homers and 27 RBI over his 125 plate appearances. Add in the fact he’ll be playing in the friendly confines of Coors Field with some elite hitters hitting in front of him, and Olson is as good of a bet for an RBI as any player Wednesday.

Dane Dunning: 4.0 strikeouts - Higher (Underdog)

Dunning has been able to miss bats at much higher rate as of late, with 39 strikeouts over 29.2 innings of work in his five starts thus far in August. The Mets certainly offer a chance for missed bats, and are not exactly in striking distance for a playoff spot. Dunning should be able to hit his mark as long as he can throw enough strikes to do so; something he admittedly struggled with Friday against the Twins.

Brandon Pfaadt : 4.5 Strikeouts - Lower (Underdog)

There’s reason for long-term upside with Pfaadt, as he was one of the best minor-league hurlers in baseball in 2022, and there have been some flashes of brilliance in 2023 despite his ugly 5.91 ERA and 1.36 WHIP over 67 innings during his rookie campaign. Asking him to reach this total is asking him to work deep against the Dodgers, a lineup that is as feared as any in all of baseball. There’s just too much risk on betting overs with Pfaadt against this kind of team.

The Houston Astros have terrorized the Boston Red Sox this week, putting up 19 runs over the last two games, both of which started by two of Boston’s best pitchers, Chris Sale and Brayan Bello.

Sale and Bello kept the games close, giving up three and two earned runs respectively, but the bullpen couldn’t contain Houston’s bats. Jose Altuve hit for the cycle in the first game, and Yordan Álvarez homered in both games, hitting seven for nine over the two nights.

Vlad Jr Could Go Off Wednesday

The Contrarian Edge Optimizer likes the idea of doubling down on the Astros stack -- a lineup that tied a franchise record 66 hits in the last four games -- but there are also alternatives to consider. Specifically, take a look at Toronto and Seattle. Both have excellent matchups today, so let’s take a closer look.

The Blue Jays face off against Patrick Corbin and the Nationals at the Rogers Centre this afternoon. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ($5000) could be poised for a big day. He’s riding a 10-game hitting streak, during which time he's slashing .302/.333/.438 with two home runs.

If you’re looking for some cheaper options to round out your lineup, keep an eye on both Blue Jays catchers. Danny Jansen ($3600) and Alejandro Kirk ($3000) are each available for less than $4000 on Draft Kings and rostering them should allow you a few extra dollars to roster a top tier bat or one of the three best pitchers on today’s card.

Either Santiago Espinal ($2400) or Whit Merrifield ($4400) could offer hits and runs if the Blue Jays put it together. And don’t sleep on George Springer ($4700), who’s been back in the leadoff spot this series and has put together a really nice run with a five-game hitting streak.

No August swoon for Seattle bats

The Mariners bats were momentarily silenced at T-Mobile Park on Tuesday night, but they’ve been red hot this month, leading the team to a 20-6 record in August. They should stack up nicely against Zach Neal, who’s starting for Oakland for the first time since 2016.

The Mariners have been excellent against right-handed pitchers this season, hitting .240/.323/.419 with a team wRC+ of 108 this season. During their hot streak this August, those numbers are even more impressive -- .279/.363/.486 and a wRC+ of 138 against right-handed pitching.

The Optimizer likes Seattle's Teoscar Hernandez ($4500) as one of your outfielders, and you could do worse than supplementing his production with leadoff man JP Crawford ($4300). Third baseman Eugenio Suarez ($4600) offers some nice pop and while you should avoid Julio Rodriguez, who is day-to-day after a late scratch on Tuesday night, Dominic Canzone ($3000) is a very cost-effective option who’s been on a nice run over the last 10 days, hitting .306/.306/.500.

Pitchers to consider

As for pitching, the wind is blowing in at Wrigley Field, and the Brewers' Brandon Woodruff ($10200) has looked every bit like the ace we know he can be since coming back from the injured list. He’s thrown 22.2 innings across four starts with 29 strikeouts, and only the Rangers scored more than two runs against Woodruff since his return.

Another pitcher to consider is the Giants' Logan Webb ($9500), who has gone five or more innings in 18 of 19 starts this season – including a seven-inning start with seven strikeouts against the Reds at Great American Ballpark in July.

Oracle is a much more pitcher-friendly environment, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Webb surpass that strikeout total from July with a free-swinging Reds team that ranks 25th in MLB with a 24.5 percent strikeout rate.

There are 15 MLB games on tap for Tuesday and a ton of opportunities to cash. The Seattle Mariners-Oakland Athletics game is very intriguing on both sides, and the Mariners have been one of the hottest hitting teams in baseball over the last few weeks. Here are tonight’s Underdog and Prizepicks plays for Tuesday’s MLB slate.

Teoscar Hernandez: 1.5 Total Bases - Higher (Underdog)
Hernandez has been excellent against left-handed pitchers and Ken Waldichuk has let up six hits or more in three of his last four starts, and he’s sporting an earned run average over six.

He’s hit the over on one and a half total bases in seven straight games. He’s homered three times in his last three contests. Hernandez is scorching hot hitting the ball in August, and he sits with a .371 batting average this month. Waldichuk has been a weaker pitcher on the road than at home, and tonight’s game is in Seattle.

Ty France: 0.5 Singles - Higher (Underdog)
France has singled in five of his last seven contests, and he hits way better against lefties, hitting .309 against them. France is having one of his better hitting months as he’s batting .284 in August. Waldichuk is more of a groundball pitcher, and France hits over 42 percent when it comes to ground balls. Between the amount of hits Waldichuk has given up lately, his struggles on the road and France having a strong month at the dish, he should be able to get on base this evening.

Ken Waldichuk: 5.5 Hits Allowed - More (Prizepicks)
With Waldichuk giving up at least six hits in a few starts recently, it’s hard to think that he’ll be able to shut down the Mariners who have been the best hitting team by average in the MLB over the last two weeks and third best over the last seven days. Waldichuk has a 7.43 earned run average, and opponents hit .303 against him when he’s starting on the road. Seattle hits .262 against left-handed pitchers which is the 8th highest in the majors.

Jose Altuve: 2.0 Hits+Runs+RBIs - Higher (Underdog)
Altuve has crossed the plate nine times total over his last three games. During that span he hit the ball seven times and produced five RBIs. Altuve hits .335 against right-handed pitchers, and even though Boston Red Sox pitcher Brayan Bello hasn’t given up a ton of runs in his starts recently, he’s allowed six hits or more in five straight starts. Last week in this exact matchup, Bello gave up nine hits against Houston, and since then, Altuve has heated up. Altuve has also been a better hitter on the road than at home, and this game is in Boston.

Manny Machado: 0.5 Singles - Higher (Underdog)
Machado has been reaching base a lot lately. Tonight, he faces St. Louis Cardinals pitcher Zack Thompson who is not only a lefty, but he’s surrendered six hits in both of his last two outings. Machado hits .327 against left-handed pitchers and he’s hit a single in three of his last five games.

Marcus Semien: 0.5 Singles - Higher (Underdog)
Semien hits better against left-handed pitchers than right-handed pitchers. He’s hit singles in four of his last seven games, and the Rangers' bats have woken up a bit in the last week. Semien has a good history against New York Mets pitcher Jose Quintana, hitting the ball six times in 13 at-bats against him. He has the most hits for the Rangers this season.