October 2, 2023
NFL

Studs & Duds: Not Quitting on Burrow ... Yet

Bengals' $275 million quarterback has led team to 3 TDs in 4 games
From left to right: Christian McCaffrey, Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, A.J. Brown. Nico Collins

There was a time in my life as a kid when I wanted nothing to do with playing football. I didn’t want to play flag or tackle. Just didn’t want to do that. At some point I came to my senses and became obsessed, but during that time my dad had a saying: “give it two weeks.” He’d tell me to participate in football for two weeks and see if I still didn’t like it. And then when two weeks came and went and I still didn’t want to do it, my Dad would then say to me “give it another two weeks.”

That’s how you get a bratty kid to do things. In fantasy terms, we’re at the “another two weeks” point. A month into the season and it’s time to elevate the fantasy studs and maybe cut bait with (at least some) of the duds. And with that, let’s recap Week 4!

10 Studs
  1. Christian McCaffrey: 177 total yds. 4 TDs
  2. A.J. Brown: 175 yds. 2 TDs
  3. Josh Allen: 320 yds. 5 total TDs
  4. Stefon Diggs: 120 yds. 2 3 TDs
  5. Kyren Williams: 127 total yds. 2 TDs
  6. Justin Fields: 335 pass yds. 4 TDs
  7. Mark Andrews: 80 yds. 2 TDs
  8. Josh Jacobs: 139 total yds. 1 TD
  9. Michael Wilson: 76 yds. 2 TDs
  10. Jonnu Smith: 95 yds. BUT STILL BETTER THAN KYLE PITTS

Honorable Mention -- Zach Wilson, 245 yds. 2 TDs. But this doesn’t absolve him from the careerlong streak of being mediocre.

It’s news to literally no one that CMC is a stud. Four touchdowns could have been five if Brock Purdy didn’t sneak in for one. Hand up: I was “cautious” when he got traded to the 49ers because of his injury history. Hand up: I’m dumb. He leads the league in rushing and could run away with it.

It’s good to see A.J. Brown build on the success of last week’s 131 scoreless yard performance with a monster day. The Eagles needed every bit of it in a shootout with the Commanders (good for you if you predicted that one) and it looks like any “give me the damn ball” problems there may have been in Philly have been worked out. Brown has 27 targets in the last two weeks compared to DeVonta Smith’s 14.

This was the Josh Allen you drafted. This was the guy you pictured when some league mates told you it was a reach to grab him in the 2nd round. His perfect passer rating and five touchdowns helped knock out the Dolphins. And he did it by going to his number 1 Stefon Diggs.

Stefon Diggs certainly hasn’t disappointed fantasy owners, but he hadn’t found the endzone in the previous two weeks. That changed Sunday with his three scores and the duo put to bed any doubts about Buffalo’s offense.

I think we can confidently say Kyren Williams is good. Granted, the Colts defense isn’t a brick wall, but he’s been showing versatility week after week. Against Indy it was on the ground, but he can get it done through the air, too. I’m high on Williams keeping it going with the return of Cooper Kupp on the horizon and the prospect of the offense being even better.

When in doubt, start offensive players against the Broncos. I guess that’s where we’re at now? Justin Fields’ 4-touchdown performance is either smoke and mirrors or the start of something beautiful. Cole Kmet had 2 touchdowns. The DJ Moore rollercoaster provided a thrill with 131 yards and a score. Khalil Herbert had more than 100 on the ground and a receiving touchdown.

Despite all of this, the Bears still lost. The Broncos did just enough by spreading it around. Unfortunately, Chicago doesn’t get to play Denver every week so let’s pump the brakes on a Midway revival.

The Ravens needed this Mark Andrews badly. His five targets led the depleted Baltimore receivers. His two touchdowns reminded us he’s still Lamar Jackson’s redzone go-to. Again, the Ravens need this and would be crazy to go away from it in the weeks ahead.

Is it fair to say the Las Vegas Raiders are a mess? I think it’s more than fair. Hell, that might even be an undersell. But it’s always darkest just before the dawn, as they say. Unfortunately for the Raiders, this is like that six-month period of time in Alaska where it’s 24-hour darkness.

More on the NFL:

That doesn’t mean there can’t be bright spots, though! Welcome back to the fold, Josh Jacobs. Fantasy owners likely expected more through four weeks, but you could argue Week 4 of last season is when Jacobs got it rolling on his way to a rushing title. This year’s Week 4 was better than that one so let’s hope he can keep it going.

Michael Wilson is a household name. I am very confident there are multiple Michael Wilson’s in houses all around the world. I will forgive you, though, if you didn’t have *the* Michael Wilson rostered on your fantasy squad, but maybe you should. His two scores built on a good Week 3, but more importantly he has overtaken Rondale Moore in Arizona and is a threat to be a top-2 or -3 option weekly in the Cardinals offense. And let’s give it up for Josh Dobbs.

This weekly column isn’t always about the BIGGEST performances. Sometimes it’s about guys who you just flat out should consider rostering. That’s Jonnu Smith and his 95 yards as the Atlanta Falcons’ second (but really first) tight end.

Personally, I’m moving on from Kyle Pitts in non-dynasty formats. You can do it, too. Sure, he might have that *one* game where he makes you think about what could be, but you know it’s not reality. Smith has almost doubled up on Pitts in terms of fantasy points this season.

The Duds

Chris Olave can be a guy you build a gameplan around, but one catch for four yards on six targets is not how you do it. If Derek Carr was deemed healthy enough to be the starting quarterback, then I’m not going to blame his health on this.

I’m more worried about Alvin Kamara’s 14 targets on his return. That’s less run for Olave and the rest of the receiving corps. The offense has also only scored 20 points or more once.

I’ll throw Tyreek Hill and Raheem Mostert in here. I guess it’s hard not to have sky-high hopes after a 70-point game, but the Dolphins were brought back down to Earth. Hill had only 58 scoreless yards, but he’ll be fine.

Mostert is a tougher call. I called him MustStart, but tack on a couple of fumbles and De’Von Achane’s ascension … what do I call him now? The Miami offense (and your fantasy team) can still support both backs, but Achane wasn’t a fluke and that can only mean Mostert’s ceiling is limited.

Lastly, let’s go back to “give it two weeks … give it another two weeks.” I thought of that phrase when looking at the Cincinnati Bengals this season. Just give it a couple weeks! They’ll be fine! They are not fine. The game against the Tennessee Titans was supposed to be the “get right” game. They were coming off a win against the Los Angeles Rams and finally got Ja’Marr Chase involved, but nothing kept rolling.

Joe Burrow has flat out stunk, and the offense has scored three total touchdowns. Tee Higgins is hurt now. It’s been two weeks and another two weeks. They’re KILLING your fantasy team if you have virtually any Bengal.

Well, I’m gonna give it another two weeks because I refuse to believe they forgot how to play football. At least until the next poor performance.

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Weather Report:

There are only three games on the slate today and none should be impacted by precipitation.

Injury Report:

Jorge Soler - Hip - He left Tuesday’s contest against the Rays with right hip tightness. He is considered day-to-day and could be ready to go against the Nationals.

Lane Thomas - Back - He was lifted prior to the seventh inning due to back soreness. It doesn’t sound serious but there is a chance he sits out Thursday.

Mitch Haniger - Rest - Haniger returned from the injured list on Tuesday and sat out against a righty but the team said it was only due to rest. He should be ready to go on Thursday.

Starting Pitchers (DK-FD)

Spencer Strider: 12,500-12,000

Lance Lynn: 8,800-9,500

Braxton Garrett: 8,200-8,700

Pedro Avila: 6,300-6,700

Joan Adon: 5,400-6,400

Sean Manaea: 5,000-7,300

Spencer Strider is the highest-priced pitcher for the slate, which shouldn’t be surprising. He easily leads the slate with a 2.75 SIERA, 1.06 WHIP, and 38 percent strikeout rate. His 1.06 HR/9 is the highest of his career, without taking the two game appearance in the majors late in 2021 into account. His 60 percent HR/Barrel rate is above league average, which indicates that he could be getting a bit unlucky with the long ball. He faces a tough team in the Dodgers which makes the 12K+ price tag a bit steep.

Strider gets to go toe-to-toe with Lance Lynn in the last game in the slate on Tuesday. To say that Lynn has had an up-and-down season is a bit of an understatement. Lynn has a 3.99 SIERA, 1.38 WHIP, and 26 percent strikeout rate on the season but most of the damage was done while he was a member of the Chicago White Sox. Since joining the Dodgers, he has a 4.30 SIERA, 1.06 WHIP, and 21 percent strikeout rate. He faces a very tough task of facing the Braves in Dodgers Stadium. Since both of these pitchers face uphill battles, going cheap on the pitching while loading up on bats, could work tonight.

Braxton Garrett gets to face the Nationals for the second game in a row. Last time out, he allowed three runs over six innings while only picking up three strikeouts. This time around, he will be in the Nationals home ballpark, which has been below league average when it comes to the long ball, especially with the forecast projecting the winds to be blowing into the ballpark.

Batter to Target

Joan Adon is a pitcher that could be easily exploited in this small slate. His 4.44 SIERA is easily the worst of the group ad Nationals Park is a bit hitter-friendly this season. While the Marlins hitters have struggled in the second of the season Jake Burger ($4,100 on DK and $3,000 on FanDuel) could be an option for fantasy managers looking some cheap power.

Stack Attack

Marlins (Braxton Garrett) vs. Nationals:

DK-FD

Lane Thomas: 4,900-3,200

Keibert Ruiz: 4,000-2,600

Joey Meneses: 4,400-2,700

If Lane Thomas is ready to go on Thursday, he is a must add. The 28-year-old is hitting .346/.393/.591 with eight homers and nine stolen bases against southpaws this season. Ruiz and Meneses also have been above league average against left-handed pitching while hitting towards the top of the Nationals lineup.

Giants (Manaea) vs. Padres:

DK-FD

Ha-Seong Kim: 4,900-3,100

Gary Sanchez: 3,800-2,600

Garrett Cooper: 2,900-2,400

Trent Grisham: 2,800-2,500

The Giants haven’t officially named a starter for Thursday’s contest against the Padres but Sean Manaea figures to fill in as the bulk reliever. Ha-Seong Kim has been out of his mind in the second half of the season, while posting a season long line of .329/.413/.579 with eight homers and ten stolen bases against left-handed pitching. Sánchez and Grisham have also hit above league average against lefties and can be add at some really low prices. Cooper has moved up to sixth in the Padres batting order after Jake Cronenworth landed on the injured list with a fractured wrist. If the Padres bats come to life at the top of the order, you could pick up some RBIs at a considerably low price point.

It’s another full slate of games Wednesday, and there are more than a handful of interesting options to gander over. Colorado-Atlanta provides some intriguing value, but a ‘lesser’ game like Kansas City taking on Pittsburgh also offers intrigue.

Here are tonight’s Underdog and Prizepicks plays for Wednesday’s MLB slate.

Bobby Witt Jr. 1.5 Total Bases - Higher (Underdog)

It’d be hard to overstate just how good the Royals' infielder has been in August, as the young star has hit.327/.379/.626 with eight homers while stealing nine bags and driving in 21 runs even for a weak team. On Wednesday, he’ll go up against the Pirates' Andre Jackson; who pitched decently over his last two starts but offers plenty of opportunity with less-than-spectacular stuff. Don’t be surprised if Witt Jr. offers a combo meal with a homer and a steal, and he’s a good bet to reach the over on that 1.5 total.

Nolan Jones : 1.5 Total Bases - Higher (Prizepicks)

Somewhat quietly, Jones has been one of the better rookies in baseball, coming into Wednesday with a slash of .271/.353/.488. He’ll get a chance to place in the friendly confines of Coors Field, and the former Cleveland prospect will also get a chance to face a right-hander who is making his MLB debut in Darius Vines. Jones is hitless in his last three games, and while that makes things a little more nerve-wracking, it also means he’s due for a big game.

Matt Olson: 0.5 RBI - More (Prizepicks)

Olson will be going up against a lefty in Kyle Freeland, and while he is statistically worse against southpaws than he is righties, worse is a subjective term considering he’s posted an .891 OPS with nine homers and 27 RBI over his 125 plate appearances. Add in the fact he’ll be playing in the friendly confines of Coors Field with some elite hitters hitting in front of him, and Olson is as good of a bet for an RBI as any player Wednesday.

Dane Dunning: 4.0 strikeouts - Higher (Underdog)

Dunning has been able to miss bats at much higher rate as of late, with 39 strikeouts over 29.2 innings of work in his five starts thus far in August. The Mets certainly offer a chance for missed bats, and are not exactly in striking distance for a playoff spot. Dunning should be able to hit his mark as long as he can throw enough strikes to do so; something he admittedly struggled with Friday against the Twins.

Brandon Pfaadt : 4.5 Strikeouts - Lower (Underdog)

There’s reason for long-term upside with Pfaadt, as he was one of the best minor-league hurlers in baseball in 2022, and there have been some flashes of brilliance in 2023 despite his ugly 5.91 ERA and 1.36 WHIP over 67 innings during his rookie campaign. Asking him to reach this total is asking him to work deep against the Dodgers, a lineup that is as feared as any in all of baseball. There’s just too much risk on betting overs with Pfaadt against this kind of team.

The Houston Astros have terrorized the Boston Red Sox this week, putting up 19 runs over the last two games, both of which started by two of Boston’s best pitchers, Chris Sale and Brayan Bello.

Sale and Bello kept the games close, giving up three and two earned runs respectively, but the bullpen couldn’t contain Houston’s bats. Jose Altuve hit for the cycle in the first game, and Yordan Álvarez homered in both games, hitting seven for nine over the two nights.

Vlad Jr Could Go Off Wednesday

The Contrarian Edge Optimizer likes the idea of doubling down on the Astros stack -- a lineup that tied a franchise record 66 hits in the last four games -- but there are also alternatives to consider. Specifically, take a look at Toronto and Seattle. Both have excellent matchups today, so let’s take a closer look.

The Blue Jays face off against Patrick Corbin and the Nationals at the Rogers Centre this afternoon. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ($5000) could be poised for a big day. He’s riding a 10-game hitting streak, during which time he's slashing .302/.333/.438 with two home runs.

If you’re looking for some cheaper options to round out your lineup, keep an eye on both Blue Jays catchers. Danny Jansen ($3600) and Alejandro Kirk ($3000) are each available for less than $4000 on Draft Kings and rostering them should allow you a few extra dollars to roster a top tier bat or one of the three best pitchers on today’s card.

Either Santiago Espinal ($2400) or Whit Merrifield ($4400) could offer hits and runs if the Blue Jays put it together. And don’t sleep on George Springer ($4700), who’s been back in the leadoff spot this series and has put together a really nice run with a five-game hitting streak.

No August swoon for Seattle bats

The Mariners bats were momentarily silenced at T-Mobile Park on Tuesday night, but they’ve been red hot this month, leading the team to a 20-6 record in August. They should stack up nicely against Zach Neal, who’s starting for Oakland for the first time since 2016.

The Mariners have been excellent against right-handed pitchers this season, hitting .240/.323/.419 with a team wRC+ of 108 this season. During their hot streak this August, those numbers are even more impressive -- .279/.363/.486 and a wRC+ of 138 against right-handed pitching.

The Optimizer likes Seattle's Teoscar Hernandez ($4500) as one of your outfielders, and you could do worse than supplementing his production with leadoff man JP Crawford ($4300). Third baseman Eugenio Suarez ($4600) offers some nice pop and while you should avoid Julio Rodriguez, who is day-to-day after a late scratch on Tuesday night, Dominic Canzone ($3000) is a very cost-effective option who’s been on a nice run over the last 10 days, hitting .306/.306/.500.

Pitchers to consider

As for pitching, the wind is blowing in at Wrigley Field, and the Brewers' Brandon Woodruff ($10200) has looked every bit like the ace we know he can be since coming back from the injured list. He’s thrown 22.2 innings across four starts with 29 strikeouts, and only the Rangers scored more than two runs against Woodruff since his return.

Another pitcher to consider is the Giants' Logan Webb ($9500), who has gone five or more innings in 18 of 19 starts this season – including a seven-inning start with seven strikeouts against the Reds at Great American Ballpark in July.

Oracle is a much more pitcher-friendly environment, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Webb surpass that strikeout total from July with a free-swinging Reds team that ranks 25th in MLB with a 24.5 percent strikeout rate.

There are 15 MLB games on tap for Tuesday and a ton of opportunities to cash. The Seattle Mariners-Oakland Athletics game is very intriguing on both sides, and the Mariners have been one of the hottest hitting teams in baseball over the last few weeks. Here are tonight’s Underdog and Prizepicks plays for Tuesday’s MLB slate.

Teoscar Hernandez: 1.5 Total Bases - Higher (Underdog)
Hernandez has been excellent against left-handed pitchers and Ken Waldichuk has let up six hits or more in three of his last four starts, and he’s sporting an earned run average over six.

He’s hit the over on one and a half total bases in seven straight games. He’s homered three times in his last three contests. Hernandez is scorching hot hitting the ball in August, and he sits with a .371 batting average this month. Waldichuk has been a weaker pitcher on the road than at home, and tonight’s game is in Seattle.

Ty France: 0.5 Singles - Higher (Underdog)
France has singled in five of his last seven contests, and he hits way better against lefties, hitting .309 against them. France is having one of his better hitting months as he’s batting .284 in August. Waldichuk is more of a groundball pitcher, and France hits over 42 percent when it comes to ground balls. Between the amount of hits Waldichuk has given up lately, his struggles on the road and France having a strong month at the dish, he should be able to get on base this evening.

Ken Waldichuk: 5.5 Hits Allowed - More (Prizepicks)
With Waldichuk giving up at least six hits in a few starts recently, it’s hard to think that he’ll be able to shut down the Mariners who have been the best hitting team by average in the MLB over the last two weeks and third best over the last seven days. Waldichuk has a 7.43 earned run average, and opponents hit .303 against him when he’s starting on the road. Seattle hits .262 against left-handed pitchers which is the 8th highest in the majors.

Jose Altuve: 2.0 Hits+Runs+RBIs - Higher (Underdog)
Altuve has crossed the plate nine times total over his last three games. During that span he hit the ball seven times and produced five RBIs. Altuve hits .335 against right-handed pitchers, and even though Boston Red Sox pitcher Brayan Bello hasn’t given up a ton of runs in his starts recently, he’s allowed six hits or more in five straight starts. Last week in this exact matchup, Bello gave up nine hits against Houston, and since then, Altuve has heated up. Altuve has also been a better hitter on the road than at home, and this game is in Boston.

Manny Machado: 0.5 Singles - Higher (Underdog)
Machado has been reaching base a lot lately. Tonight, he faces St. Louis Cardinals pitcher Zack Thompson who is not only a lefty, but he’s surrendered six hits in both of his last two outings. Machado hits .327 against left-handed pitchers and he’s hit a single in three of his last five games.

Marcus Semien: 0.5 Singles - Higher (Underdog)
Semien hits better against left-handed pitchers than right-handed pitchers. He’s hit singles in four of his last seven games, and the Rangers' bats have woken up a bit in the last week. Semien has a good history against New York Mets pitcher Jose Quintana, hitting the ball six times in 13 at-bats against him. He has the most hits for the Rangers this season.