We’re finally here. After an eventful offseason that saw plenty of drama that helped satiate our cravings for on-field action, we’re now ready to kick off the 2023 season with the defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs taking on the Detroit Lions on Thursday.
Game
Detroit Lions at Kansas City Chiefs, 8:20 p.m. ET
Betting odds (DraftKings)
Line: Chiefs - 4.5
Moneyline: Chiefs +180, Lions -218
Over/Under: 53 points
Team ranks (2022)
Chiefs
Points for: 29.2 PPG (1st)
Points allowed: 21.7 (16th)
Lions
Points for: 26.6 (5th)
Points allowed: 25.1 (28th)
Key Injuries to Watch
Chiefs
- Travis Kelce: Knee, out ($18,000)
- Kadarius Toney: Knee, unspecified ($10,500)
Kelce’s is one of the biggest injuries to monitor throughout the regular season. The KC tight end hyperextended his knee in practice Tuesday and is still dealing with inflammation.
The good news is Kansas City believes the all-everything TE won’t miss considerable time, but with a short week of practice and 16 games to play after the opener, it wouldn’t be a shock if the Chiefs decided to take things slow.
With Kelce out, Noah Gray will likely get most of the snaps in his place, and he’s an intriguing -- if risky -- play for what could be a high-scoring affair.
Toney doesn’t have an injury designation, but the speedy wideout was limited early because of a knee issue, and it may prevent him from playing a full complement of snaps tonight.
It’s not injury-related, but the Chiefs will also be without Chris Jones, who’s still holding out for a contract extension. He’s one of the NFL’s best defensive linemen, and his ability to rush the passer will likely be missed Thursday.
Lions
The only player with an injury designation is defensive back Emmanuel Moseley, who has been ruled out with a knee injury. That means likely more playing time for Khalil Dorsey and Steven Gilmore but isn’t likely to play a major factor in the game.
Big names/big prices (DraftKings)
- Patrick Mahomes, QB, $18,300
- Travis Kelce, TE, $18,000
- Ahman-Ra St. Brown, WR, $15,300
- Jared Goff, QB, $14,100
- Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, $12,300
- Kadarius Toney, WR, $10,500
- Isaiah Pacheco, RB, $10,200
- David Montgomery, $9,00
- Marvin Jones Jr., WR, $9,300
- Jerrick McKinnon, RB, $8,400
Mahomes is the biggest name in football, and even if he is missing his favorite target in Kelce, there’s reason to believe he’ll have another monster game at Arrowhead. The 27-year-old has gotten off to hot starts in the previous two seasons, including a five-touchdown effort against the Cardinals in 2022 and 337 yards along with three passing scores vs the Browns in 2021.
The Lions ranked 30th in pass yards allowed, 31st in net yards per attempt and 23rd in passing touchdowns in 2022. Although the Detroit D should be improved, this is a tough task and an easy reason to play Mahomes. As if you needed one.
Gibbs will be making his NFL debut after the Lions surprisingly drafted the him 12th out of Alabama. The Lions will likely use Montgomery in a similar -- if not carbon copy -- mode to how they used Jamaal Williams in 2022.
But Detroit is going to make Gibbs a big part of the offense early and often, even if Montgomery might vulture a touchdown or four away from him in the 2023 campaign. And again, remember that the Chiefs won’t have Jones to help with either the run or pass defense.
St. Brown is going to be a target fiend again in 2023, but there are question marks about how the rest of the targets will look for Goff and the Detroit offense. Jones Jr. and Josh Reynolds are options that have had flashes of competence in their time in the league -- Jones Jr. obviously on a more consistent basis than Reynolds -- but neither represent an option that is going to keep teams from keying in on St. Brown.
While Goff was among the most improved players in the NFL last year, his lack of consistency from season-to-season and a supporting cast that doesn’t quite compete with the best make this a risky offense to target in DFS.
Sneaky options
Sam LaPorta, TE, DET $6500 (FanDuel)
The Lions draft LaPorta 35th out of tight end generator Iowa. In 2022, the Chiefs were in the bottom 10 in allowing fantasy points to tight ends, as several players were able to find room in the middle of the field against Kansas City, especially in those games where Kansas City was able to put up points and made the passing game a necessary option.
Playing a rookie tight end is risky, but it wouldn’t be a major surprise if LaPorta came away with a receiving score in his first professional opportunity.
Sky Moore, WR, KC $7700 (DraftKings)
Moore did not exactly pile up the fantasy points in 2023 during his rookie season, with just 33 targets and only 250 yards and no scores. He was a second-round selection by the Chiefs in 2022 thanks in large part to his speed, and no QB gets the ball downfield better than Mahomes.
Moore offers breakout potential with a chance to get off to a nice start with a friendly matchup tonight.
Noah Gray, TE, KC $3,600 (DraftKings)
Much of Gray’s value depends on whether or not Kelce plays. But even if he does, maybe consider Gray at this price point. It seems unlikely the Chiefs will risk their best non-Mahomes weapon for a full amount of snaps even if he is active, and Gray is fourth among returning players for the Chiefs in receptions with 28.
It’s a bit of a contrarian play if Kelce is in the lineup, but contrarian plays are often the ones that help DFS players finish with a good amount of cash.
Prediction
The Lions were one of the scrappiest teams in the NFL in 2022 under coach Dan Campbell, and the Chiefs could be without one of the true difference-makers in the sport in Kelce. Still, there’s a generational quarterback starting for Kansas City at home, so I’ll take the Chiefs to cover in what should be an entertaining way to open the season.
Chiefs 35, Lions 28
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