Brian Robinson is being used in a full-blown bell cow role for the 2-0 Washington Commanders. He's fourth in the NFL with 37 rush attempts, eighth in rushing yards, and No. 1 in first downs gained with 13. Most importantly, Robinson is out-carrying counterpart Antonio Gibson 37 to five.
Only three running backs have finished with 19.9+ fantasy points in both Week 1 and Week 2:
Christian McCaffrey
Bijan Robinson
Tony Pollard
Ken Walker sees himself in the top five this week for the first time in 2023. He has a stranglehold on the Seahawks backfield with a 62% snap share, and a 73% opportunity share, despite a slow start to the season that had us assuming Seattle would push rookie Zach Charbonnet into the lineup more.
Walker finished as RB14 in Week 2, during a tough game script. In Week 3, the Carolina Panthers come to town after allowing a combined 254 rushing yards to the Falcons and Saints during the first two weeks.
NBA Opening Week continues Thursday night, and we have two more games to select our Underdog and PrizePicks plays. The TNT doubleheader features two showdowns between four teams with championship aspirations.
The first game features an Eastern Conference clash as Giannis Antetokounmpo and his new teammate Damian Lillard battle reigning MVP Joel Embiid and the Philadelphia 76ers. The second matchup pegs the new-look Phoenix Suns against the Los Angeles Lakers in LA’s home opener.
The Bucks were a juggernaut at home last season, going 32-8. Giannis just renewed his contract with the Bucks, and he will be on a revenge tour all season long. I believe he will push for league MVP once again.
He has gone over this number in 15 of his last 16 matchups with the 76ers! That’s an insane rate that we can’t ignore. The Bucks made the most significant move in the offseason when they acquired Lillard, but they didn’t add to its frontcourt.
Brook Lopez will defend Embiid often, which leaves Giannis free to gobble up the boards in the Bucks opener.
Tyrese Maxey 21.5 Points (More) – PrizePicks
Maxey is in for a massive increase in usage with James Harden out. Apparently, the Beard was ready to rejoin his teammates, but the team left him at home. His future is in limbo which is likely going to plague Philadelphia until it is resolved.
One thing we can rely on is Maxey will lead the 76ers alongside Joel Embiid. In his last three games against the Bucks, Maxey has gone over this number. Milwaukee traded its best defender Jrue Holiday during the summer.
In 14 games last season without Harden, Maxey surpassed this number nine times, and in two of the unders, he finished with 21.
I expect this to be a popular pick tonight, but I still like it.
Tyrese Maxey 3 Rebounds (Higher) - Underdog
I’m double dipping with Maxey, who is primed for a breakout season. Many experts have believed in his talent, but he’s been sort of stuck waiting in the wings throughout his first three seasons. The 76ers need him to be an All-Star caliber player if they want to be a contender, and I think he will be.
Without Harden on the floor, he reeled in at least four rebounds in seven of 14 games and in two of his last three games versus the Bucks. Milwaukee was in the bottom half of the NBA in rebounds allowed per game last season, and Maxey will see increased minutes this season.
This number seems a bit low with his projected increase in usage.
Joel Embiid 4.5 Assists (More) - PrizePicks
Speaking of an increase in usage. How about the reigning MVP? While I expect Maxey to take a huge leap, Embiid is the primary ball handler for the 76ers.
In his last 6 games against the Bucks, Embiid has produced at least 5 assists 5 times. He played 15 games last season without Harden. He had at least 5 assists in 12 of them. That’s an 80% hit rate on this line.
We can count on Embiid to play big minutes and go over the number as he kicks off his 2023 season.
Anthony Davis 23.5 Points (More) -PrizePicks
I’m going back to the well on Davis, who disappeared in the opener against the Nuggets. The Lakers need AD to lead the way this season. He is the focal point of this team.
Davis led the Lakers in shot attempts in their opener but shot a poor percentage and didn’t make a shot in the second half.
The Suns shipped out Deandre Ayton for Jusuf Nurkic in the summer, and Nurkic isn’t known for his defense. It’s not often I agree with Stephen A., but Davis is a rollercoaster, and tonight should be a peak after his poor performance Tuesday.
Deep cuts this week belong to Tyler Conklin of the Jets, playing the New York Giants, and Chig Okonkwo with Will Levis in at quarterback for Tennessee.
With Zach Ertz and Dawson Knox injured, look for Dalton Kincaid and Trey McBride to vault into the top 12 on a weekly basis going forward. And this will indeed be the week I stop talking about Andrew Ogletree
Demario Douglas had five targets in Week 7, eclipsing JuJu Smith-Schuster and DeVante Parker combined. Douglas saw 25 routes in Week 7, the most since his 27 in Week 1.
Rashid Shaheed has continued to carve out opportunities in New Orleans with another 80%+ route share. With Chris Olave dealing with a legal situation, look for Shaheed to see a few more targets if Olave misses this week.
Going back to the well with D’Onta Foreman was the best move possible in Week 7. He finished as the overall RB1, with 19 touches, 120 yards and 3 touchdowns. This week, it looks like Roschon Johnson will return, but as much as we love Johnson, he is coming off of a two-week mishap with a concussion. With a solid matchup against the Chargers, let’s continue tailing the borderline workhorse in Chicago.
The deepest play is in Cleveland, with Pierre Strong sitting behind the injured Kareem Hunt and Jerome Ford. Strong finished as RB49 in Week 7 with just 8 carries and no targets.
Deep-Deep plays consist of Cam Akers and Kenny McIntosh, the rookie coming off of IR in Seattle. McIntosh was the coaching staff's favorite over Zach Charbonnet during training camp. After missing the first 7 weeks, McIntosh is back and Charbonnet is coming off a hamstring injury that caused him to miss Week 7.
The Tennessee Titans come out of the bye week with a plan in place for Will Levis to start. According to Coach Mike Vrabel, it will be both Will Levis and Malik Willis, with Ryan Tannehill out. Willis showed a lack of pocket presence against Baltimore. I can’t imagine the Titans have an actual short leash on Levis. He comes in at QB 21.
Desmond Ridder has taken a large step forward after starting just 11 career games so far. He looks as if he has been in the NFL for 35 games. He has averaged a QB finish of 9.7 over the last three weeks, winning two of three.
The bottom of the totem pole is injured Deshaun Watson, poor performing Jordan Love and unprotected Sam Howell against the Eagles. Refer to plays like Josh Dobbs, Tyrod Taylor or Baker Mayfield if you must.
It’s finally here and our long wait is officially over! The NBA season starts on Tuesday night with the Lakers visiting the Nuggets at 7:30 p.m. ET and the Warriors hosting the Suns at 10 p.m. Both games are on TNT, so you’ll be able to catch all the action.
(Meanwhile, Sportstopia's Contrarian Edge Optimizer is the elite tool to use when setting your DFS lineups and you can try it out for an entire week for just $1).
Bradley Beal is out for the Suns with a gimpy back and SG/SFGrayson Allen could be a strong play. He’s just $4900 at DraftKings and the Optimizer likes him as well. The Optimizer has Allen going off for 19.45 points against the Warriors and he looks like one of the better value picks on a two-game night.
Draymond Green (ankle) has also been ruled out, which should clear the way for Chris Paul and Kevon Looney to get some extra minutes. But the player I like to shine in his place is SF/PF Jonathan Kuminga. The Optimizer also loves him, projecting him to score 28.44 fantasy points at a salary of just $4600 at FanDuel.
Another player I’ve been high on during drafting season is Andrew Wiggins of Golden State. He’s a power forward at DraftKings at a salary of $5500 and a projected point total of 30.41. Wiggins was out for much of last season due to various injuries and an extended personal leave, but he’s back, healthy and should be ready to put up big numbers for the Dubs.
I also like the idea of stacking Warriors and a lineup featuring PG/SG Stephen Curry (Draft Kings - $9200, 46.41 points, FanDuel - $10000, 43.71 points), PG Chris Paul (Draft Kings - $5600, 31.52 points, FanDuel - $8000, 33.58 points), PF Wiggins (Draft Kings - $5500, 30.54 points, FanDuel - $6800, 30.16 points) and C Kevon Looney (Draft Kings - $5300, 29.66 points, FanDuel - $5400, 29.83 points) makes a lot of sense to both me and the Optimizer.
Other players to consider when setting lineups tonight on DraftKings include PG/SG Devin Booker ($8300, 43.45 points), Taurean Prince ($3500, 17.87 points), C Nikola Jokic ($10000, 56.94 points) and Jordan Goodwin ($3300, 16.93 points).
Goodwin is cheap and could play a big role with Beal out and putting together some ‘stars and scrubs’ lineups shouldn’t be hard to do with the injuries in Phoenix and Golden State. LeBron James is another Optimizer favorite and comes with a $9300 salary and a projection of 42.29 fantasy points.
Favorite plays by position
Point Guard - Jordan Goodwin ($4300, 19.89 points - FanDuel)
Shooting Guard - Eric Gordon ($4000, 20.13 points - FanDuel)
Small Forward - LeBron James ($10,300, 47.51 - FanDuel)
Power Forward - Dario Saric ($3400, 18.55 - DraftKings)
Center - Jusuf Nurkic ($6300, 32.24 - DraftKings)
Getting the use of the Contrarian Edge Optimizer tool for an entire week for just $1 is simply a deal too good to pass up. So hit the link, let the Optimizer set you some lineups, sit back and enjoy the opening night of the NBA season.
Because we finished another week with a 3-0 sweep, our season record is now 14-4 (78%)! Clearly, something is going right, so let’s keep it going. Here is what I am looking for this week in the NFL.
Close Your Eyes Special — Las Vegas Raiders +8 @ Detroit Lions
Welcome back, old friend. We missed you. I would take the week off as well after Mac Jones and the Patriots gave us our first ATS loss this season with a terrible bad beat. But now, we rebound.
I’m not going to sell it to you like this is a great bet. The Raiders could be starting Jimmy Garoppolo at quarterback. There is probably an even more likely chance that it is Brian Hoyer, who looked terrible last week vs the Bears. The Raiders are also on a back-to-back road spot, which is brutal in the NFL (remember this fact for later). And the Lions got beat so bad last week that if they were an underdog in this game, then they would also be a ‘Close Your Eyes Special’.
However, we must respect the CYE Special being 6-1 ATS. Also, we have Davante Adams returning to play the Lions. Despite being with a new team this time, Adams has had success at Detroit. In his last three games there, he averaged 7 catches for 116 yards and a touchdown. I’m trusting the CYE Special again.
Atlanta Falcons @ Tennessee Titans +2.5
Now, I know some people are thinking, “No way am I trusting Malik Willis.”
Ryan Tannehill (ankle) got knocked out before the bye week during their game in London versus the Baltimore Ravens. This coaching staff has had two weeks to prepare Willis and themselves for a pretty big home game halfway through the season.
Meanwhile, Desmond Ridder is coming off of his first road win. But, at what cost, as Bijan Robinson is now expected to miss some time. This will also be Student vs. Master as Arthur Smith returns to Tennessee -- where he was offensive coordinator – as Falcons head coach.
This is a classic Mike Vrabel-as-a-home-underdog spot where nobody believes in the Titans, and he finds a way to get it done. Vrabel is 11-8-1 ATS as a home dog. Willis is actually 2-1 ATS as a starter under Vrabel as well. I’m going to trust the coaching staff not to ask Willis to do much and play good defense.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Pittsburgh Steelers +2.5
Here is another trend we will have to blindly trust because it is so good. Mike Tomlin is dominant as an underdog:
72-44-4 (62%) as an underdog
22-6-3 (79%) as a home underdog
11-4 (73%) as a home underdog of less than three points
We could literally go all day here. This is a spot where you trust Tomlin. Add in that Matt Canada’s offensive looked competent with Dionte Johnson returning to the lineup. Kenny Pickett had issues with his receivers creating separation and getting open, but Johnson provides that safe option in the intermediate range that Pickett can go to.
Meanwhile, the Jaguars are rightfully favored after winning four straight. But this is a back-to-back road spot for the Jaguars. In 2023, teams on the second leg of a back-to-back road spot are 9-16-1 ATS and 9-17 straight up. Very easy handicap here—we trust Tomlin (as an underdog).
Tuesday marks the tip-off of the 2023-24 NBA season, and we have two games for our Underdog and PrizePicks plays. The TNT doubleheader features two Western Conference showdowns. The first game features a rematch of the Western Conference finals with LeBron James and the Lakers facing Nikola Jokic and the defending NBA champion Nuggets. The second matchup pegs the Golden State Warriors and Steph Curry against the new-look Phoenix Suns.
Anthony Davis 23.5 Points (More) - PrizePicks
The Lakers have revenge on their mind, and I believe they are the correct side in the opener. Davis will lead the way for the Lakers this season simply because they need him to. AD averaged 26.8 points per game in the West finals. Hopefully we’ll get a full, healthy season from ‘The Brow’.
LeBron James 1.5 Steals + Blocks (Higher) – Underdog
The Nuggets allowed the most steals per game last season to opposing power forwards. The King truly is positionless, but at this point in his career, he will mostly play power forward with Davis at center.
The Lakers have added depth to its backcourt, so LeBron will defend the post often alongside Davis. James usually has huge opening night performances, and even in year 21, I think we’ll see King James active all over the floor.
LeBron and the Lakers want to make a statement that their run to the WCF wasn’t a fluke, so I expect him to play significant minutes despite it being Game 1. He topped this number in 10 of 16 playoff games last season, and playing the extra minutes tonight will help him get there again.
Nikola Jokic 12.5 Rebounds (More) – PrizePicks
It’s a no-brainer to back the former MVP on opening night at home in some capacity. He topped this number in three of the four playoff games versus the Lakers last season and in 36 games during the regular season. It doesn’t hurt that the Lakers allowed the sixth-most rebounds per game to opposing centers last season ago.
Kevin Durant 30.5 Points (Higher) - Underdog
It sounds like we’ll have to wait a few more days until we get a complete look at the Suns new roster. Bradley Beal is currently doubtful to play in the opener, and Devin Booker is a game-time decision.
Thus, Durant likely will be the focal point, so it’s easy for me to select his over. KD averaged over 29 points per game last season, and I expect him to waste no time to get shots up.
The Suns have a completely revamped roster outside of Durant and Booker. The Warriors will be without Draymond Green tonight, which opens the door even wider for Nurkic to have a solid debut with his new team.
Golden State was bottom 10 last season in points and rebounds allowed to opposing centers. Nurkic has topped this number in six of his last eight matchups against the Warriors, albeit as a member of the Trail Blazers.
Can someone call the NFL schedulers for me? Why on earth did we have to suffer through six teams on bye in week 7 just to have zero teams on bye in week 8. That being said, week 8 is a nice little oasis in the sea of bye weeks that is the middle of the NFL Season.
We’re over halfway through the fantasy regular season at this point yet we’re still learning new information and watching player’s roles on teams change. This is the time of year to pay attention to upward trends on disappointing players. Look for the wide receiver whose snap share has increased dramatically but hasn’t seen the production yet. Look for the backup running backs behind older or injury prone starters. Look for the rookies who may see their first opportunities for significant playing time over the back half of the season.
Fantasy values are far from sticky and we’ll see multiple players dramatically increase (and decrease) before the end of the season. We’re trying to get ahead of those increases and get those players on our roster before the rest of the league catches on.
Wide Receivers
Josh Downs (52% Rostered)
After a slow start to his rookie year, 3rd round pick Josh Downs has taken on a larger role in this Colt’s offense. He’s had three weeks in a row of at least 6 targets and no less than 13 PPR fantasy points.
Don’t expect Downs to surpass Michael Pittman as the team’s leading receiver, but it does appear as if his role in this offense is secure and can only grow as the season progresses. Downs can be viewed as a WR2/3 depending on matchup.
Kendrick Bourne (39% Rostered)
Kendrick Bourne was doing his best Sammy Watkins impersonation until Week 6 of this year. Blow up week 1 with a multi-touchdown game and then disappear. Luckily for fantasy managers, Mac Jones remembered in Week 6 that Kendrick Bourne is his best receiving weapon and he carried that lesson over into week 7.
Back-to-back top 15 wide receiver weeks, with 7 and 11 targets respectively. Next week the Patriots head to Miami to play one of the highest powered offenses in the league. If the Patriots stand a chance, they’ll have to throw the ball a ton to keep up. Kendrick Bourne should be in line for a hefty target volume in week 8.
Jalin Hyatt (25% Rostered)
After seeing more than 46% of the snaps just once in the first 5 weeks, Jalin Hyatt has been on the field for more than 70% of the snaps over the last two weeks. While he’s starting to consistently see the field more, the production hasn’t quite caught up yet.
Hyatt brings a dimension to the game that the Giants desperately need, a big play threat on the field. If this Giants’ offense is to turn it around, Hyatt will likely be a part of that. If you have room on your bench, add Hyatt before his production catches up to his new elevated usage.
Running Backs
Darrell Henderson (37% Rostered)
My bad on Zach Evans y’all, that one really didn’t work out in all of the leagues I started him in during the bye-pocalypse of week 7. It didn’t work out because Darrell Henderson was activated from the practice squad Saturday and then was the Rams’ clear lead back on Sunday. Henderson has familiarity with this offense so there was little learning curve before he could plug right in.
Henderson should likely remain the lead back so long as Kyren Williams is out, so at least three more weeks. That being said, Royce Freeman looks to get some work as well during that time. If Henderson shows out during this time period, he could see usage even upon the return of Kyren Williams.
Emari Demercado (20% Rostered)
I know Demercado burned us a couple weeks ago but the tables were turned in week 7 as he led the Cardinals backfield with 13 carries. Keontay Ingram confusingly got no carries after leading the team in carries in week 6.
Demercado carries significant risk as the Cardinals don’t seem committed to a single back while James Conner is out, but signs are pointing in his direction. In a decent matchup against Baltimore in week 8, you can put Demercado in your lineup in a pinch.
Tyjae Spears (50% Rostered)
Tyjae Spears continues to earn snaps on a team that has Derrick Henry. While his touches were limited the last time we saw him in week 6 against Baltimore, Spears is carving out a role on this team.
I’m not yet ready to start Tyjae Spears, but get him on your bench while he’s flying under the radar due to the Titans’ bye week. Spears will likely continue to earn more work away from Derrick Henry as the season progresses.
Tight Ends
Dalton Kincaid (41% Rostered)
The year of the rookie tight end continued as Dalton Kincaid had his first big game of the season in the Bills’ loss to the New England Patriots. Kincaid caught all 8 of his targets for 75 yards, good enough for TE7 on the week in PPR formats.
With Dawson Knox potentially sidelined for an undetermined amount of time due to wrist surgery, Kincaid could be looking at an opportunity to continue his week 7 successes into the rest of the season.
Logan Thomas (48% Rostered)
Thomas continues to be a preferred target of Sam Howell and that should continue in a week 8 matchup against the Eagles. Thomas has gotten at least 6 targets in half of his games this season and scored a TD in two of them. While this doesn’t sound like much, it’s enough to make him TE13 on the season in PPR leagues.
With Sam Howell set to likely see a lot of pressure in week 8, expect Thomas to be heavily involved over the middle of the field. Thomas is a nice Safety Valve for Howell and Howell will likely need that in week 8.
Quarterbacks
Kyler Murray (48% Rostered)
While the Joshua Dobbs experience got off to a hot start this season, it’s simmered down over the past couple of weeks. The timing of it works out nicely because we just received news that Kyler Murray will likely be back on the field by week 10.
With the Cardinals offense running surprisingly well to start the season, the upside of Kyler Murray is immense. Let’s not forget who Kyler Murray is for fantasy. This dude, that people seemingly want to leave for dead on the waiver wire, was a top 12 QB in 8 of 11 starts just last season. In 2021, he was a top 12 QB in 7 of 13 starts and a top 15 QB in 11 of 13 starts.
Kyler Murray is good for fantasy football and he’s just sitting out there in a majority of leagues. Pick him up. Put him in your IR spot. Enjoy your top 12 QB for the rest of the season when he comes back in week 10.
Tyson Bagent (7% Rostered)
This is for my friends out there feeling a little desperate. This is for the people in a work league where everyone rosters 3+ QBs. This is for the people that like a little risk in their life.
Bagent is not my 2nd favorite QB on the wire this week, but I wanted to highlight that he is startable in week 8. Bagent turned in an underwhelming fantasy performance in Chicago’s big win against the Raiders, but he’s got arguably the most QB friendly matchup in the Chargers in week 8.
Fields isn’t expected to be out long term, but if you need a week 8 spot start Bagent can get you across this finish line in a good matchup.
An optimizer is a powerful tool for DFS, capable of bulk operations in an instant that would otherwise take hours of manipulation to perform manually. But we must first learn how to wield an optimizer to realize its true power.
That’s what we try to do in this weekly series. We’ll focus on Sportstopia’s Contrarian Edge Optimizer for every Monday Night Football game this season to explore the tool itself, maximize expected value through optimal utilization, and provide a sneak peek into the industry’s newest and most dynamic optimizer.
MNF: San Francisco 49ers at Minnesota Vikings
First Run
Running the Contrarian Edge Optimizer without altering any inputs returns a roster consisting of Alexander Mattison at captain, Brock Purdy, Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle, T.J. Hockenson, and Brandon Powell. While I agree this returns the best combination of median projections, there are additional things we need to be thinking through when taking team tendencies, injuries, and game environment into account.
First off, Deebo Samuel is set to miss the next two games, at minimum, for the 49ers with a fracture in his shoulder. That takes an already concentrated San Francisco offense and turns it into a hyper-concentrated offense. Christian McCaffrey, Aiyuk, and Kittle should be at the top of our list on this showdown slate. That said, team tendencies could narrow that down further for us.
Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores has blitzed 22 percent more than any other team. Offensive tackle Trent Williams, one of the top tackles in the game, is listed as doubtful. When you combine those two truths, we’re left with a matchup against the most blitz-heavy defense in the league without one of the top pass protectors in the league for the 49ers.
Taking previous coaching tendencies into account, we should expect TE Kittle to play heavier rates in-line. That does not mean that he won’t run routes, but I would expect Kittle to be in to block at a higher rate than we’ve seen to this point in the season. Kittle’s 89.6 percent route participation rate could take a substantial hit in this spot.
That should place increased emphasis on Aiyuk through the air in addition to a high expected workload for McCaffrey. But it should also open up some secondary players for potential fantasy goodness, primarily Ray-Ray McCloud, who filled in directly for Samuel once the latter left the team’s Week 6 contest. That’s important as it wasn’t the more straight-up Jauan Jennings that saw an increase to his snap rate and route participation.
As for the Vikings, who will be without alpha wide receiver Justin Jefferson, things get a bit more interesting. Mattison projects well due to his hefty workload in this offense, but the 49ers force one of the highest pass rates against due to their suffocating run defense. That means K.J. Osborn, Jordan Addison, Powell, and Hockenson get a slight boost to expectations in this matchup.
Practical Application
Simply applying a 10 percent boost to the projections of Aiyuk, McCaffrey, McCloud, and the Vikings pass-catchers and applying a 10 percent decrease to Kittle, Mattison, and Jauan Jennings will force the optimizer to emphasize these theoretical findings. The biggest problem with only manipulating the skill position players is that it could preclude the optimizer from including defenses and kickers at a comparable rate as would otherwise be considered without manipulating projections.
To combat this, I recommend running the optimizer without manipulating the projections of those two positions for one-third of your entries, saving one-third for the base run and one-third for entries where you manipulate the defenses and kicker projections. This will give you the best mix of theory, its application, and variance management for a highly variant one-game sample.
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