On Sunday Night Football, we cap off the NFL’s second weekend with an AFC East battle -- Tua Tagovailoa and the Miami Dolphins at Foxborough to take on Mac Jones and the New England Patriots.
Game
New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins, 8:20 pm ET
Odds (DraftKings)
Line: Patriots +3, Dolphins -3
Moneyline: Patriots (+124), Dolphins (-148)
Over/Under: 46.5
Team Ranks (2023)
Patriots
Points for: 20.0 (16th)
Points Allowed: 25.0 (23rd)
Dolphins
Points For: 36.0 (3rd)
Points Allowed: 34.0 (29th)
Key Injuries to Watch
Patriots
OT Trent Brown (Concussion) – Questionable
G Sidy Sow, (Concussion)- Questionable
CB Jonathan Jones (Ankle)- Questionable
Dolphins
OT Terron Armstead (Back, Ankle, Knee) – Questionable
LB Jaelan Phillips (Back) – Questionable
Armstead is probably the most important injury. Plenty of reports out of Miami’s practice this week are pointing toward him making his season debut. Even without Armstead blocking in Week 1, Tua posted a career-best .60 EPA per dropback.
A major surprise on the injury report is corner Jonathan Jones. He was likely going to be tasked with covering Tyreek Hill, but the missed Friday’s practice with an ankle injury that he may have picked up during the week. New England’s secondary will be in trouble if Jones can’t go.
Captain Prices (DraftKings)
Tyreek Hill, WR $18,900
Tua Tagovailoa, QB, $16,800
Jaylen Waddle, WR, $15,300
Rhamondre Stevenson, RB, $14,100
Mac Jones, QB, $13,500
Raheem Mostert, RB, $12,000
Kendrick Bourne, WR, $10,800
Flex Prices (DraftKings)
Tyreek Hill, WR $12,600
Tua Tagovailoa, QB, $11,200
Jaylen Waddle, WR, $10,200
Rhamondre Stevenson, RB, $9,400
Mac Jones, QB, $9,000
Raheem Mostert, RB, $8,000
Kendrick Bourne, WR, $7,200
According to the Contrarian Edge Optimizer, Tyreek Hill is projected to be the most-owned Captain on the slate over at DraftKings, projected to appear in over 28 percent of lineups. The highest-owned projected player for the Flex spot is Mac Jones.
Surprisingly, the Optimizer is projecting Ezekiel Elliott to appear in just over 1 percent of lineups!
Sneaky Options
Rhamondre Stevenson, Patriots RB, $14,100 – Captain Slot
I’m not sure this qualifies as a “sneaky” choice, but Rhamondre in your Captain slot could pay dividends. Miami’s defense was torched by Chargers running backs in Week 1 to the tune of 255 total yards and two touchdowns.
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I’m not convinced we should worry about Zeke Elliott, as Stevenson played 74 percent of snaps in Week 1 compared to Elliot’s 26 percent, and Zeke fumbled.
Since the start of last season, Miami’s defense is bottom six in catches, yards, and receiving scores allowed to opposing running backs. This is noteworthy because Stevenson accumulated 6 catches on 6 targets in Week 1. We can trust his usage to be elite Sunday night.
Hunter Henry, Patriots TE, $5,600
Under new offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien, Mac Jones had his first career 300-plus passing yard game with three touchdowns. He attempted a career-high 52 passes in Week 1. Last season, the Dolphins allowed the third most receptions and touchdowns to opposing tight ends.
Hunter Henry saw solid usage in Week 1, catching 5 passes for 56 yards and a touchdown. Miami’s defense picked up right where it left off in 2022 allowing Chargers tight ends to catch 5 passes and a touchdown in Week 1.
Bargain Option
Mike Gesicki, Patriots TE, $2,400
O’Brien runs a tight end-happy offense. Gesicki is in a revenge game spot against his former team that decided he wasn’t worth paying. See Hunter Henry above as to why we should insert at least one of the Patriots tight ends into our lineups Sunday night. Gesicki is a bargain!
Prediction
I’m seeing plenty of people predicting Tua to stay hot here. He’s 4-0 against Bill Belichick’s Patriots. The odds suggest we should expect the offenses to produce and Tua is the current leader in the clubhouse in MVP odds.
I think the Patriots keep this game close, and Miami’s offense will continue to display its firepower. I think we see chunk gains from Rhamondre in the run game as the Patriots aim to control the tempo. Gesicki scores in the red zone on a short seam route over the middle to cap off a huge win early in the season for the Patriots. Miami gets an early wakeup call.
Final Score: Patriots 24, Dolphins 20