In perhaps the best matchup thus far this season, Dak Prescott and the Dallas Cowboys take on Brock Purdy and the San Francisco 49ers in Santa Clara for Sunday Night Football. Let’s look at the game:
San Francisco 49ers vs. Dallas Cowboys, 8:20 pm ET
Betting Odds (DraftKings)
- Line: 49ers -3.5, Cowboys +3.5
- Moneyline: 49ers (-184), Cowboys (+154)
- Over/Under: 45
Team Ranks (2023)
49ers
- Points for: 31.3 (3rd)
- Points Allowed: 14.5 (T3rd)
Cowboys
- Points For: 31 (4th)
- Points Allowed: 10.3 (1st)
Key Injuries to Watch
49ers
RB Elijah Mitchell (Knee) – Out
Cowboys
TE Peyton Hendershot (Ankle) – Out
These injuries aren't game altering. Deebo Samuel has been nursing knee and rib injuries for a couple of weeks now, and it's being reported he won't be 100 percent. He played 87 percent of the snaps last week but failed to receive a single target. He’s not listed on the injury report. Mitchell will miss his second consecutive game which led to a few extra snaps for Jordan Mason.
Captain Prices (DraftKings)
- Christian McCaffrey, RB $17,700
- Tony Pollard, RB, $15,300
- CeeDee Lamb, WR, $15,000
- Dak Prescott QB, $14,400
- Brock Purdy, QB, $14,100
- Brandon Aiyuk, WR, $12,600
- Deebo Samuel, WR, $11,400
Flex Prices (DraftKings)
- Christian McCaffrey, RB $11,800
- Tony Pollard, RB, $10,200
- CeeDee Lamb, WR, $10,000
- Dak Prescott QB, $9,600
- Brock Purdy, QB, $9,400
- Brandon Aiyuk, WR, $8,400
- Deebo Samuel, WR, $7,600
According to the Contrarian Edge Optimizer, McCaffrey is projected to be the most-owned Captain (43%) on the slate at DraftKings. The next closest projected in ownership is Brock Purdy at 9.5%. Regarding flex positions, it's projected to be much more balanced. In Showdown, 9 players are projected to be owned in over 30% of lineups. This includes both team defenses.
McCaffrey has scored a touchdown in 13 straight games as a 49er, surpassing the legendary Jerry Rice. CMC found paydirt a career-high four times in San Francisco's 35-16 win over the Arizona Cardinals last week.
Entering Week 5, McCaffrey is the highest non-QB in NFL MVP future odds at +1800. Before Week 4, he was +4800 to win MVP. He is the No. 1 scoring running back in fantasy this season, and the Cowboys have allowed the sixth-most explosive runs this season.
The current Vegas total is 45 points, which might be tough to reach as the Cowboys are the fourth slowest, and the 49ers are the slowest in neutral pace. This will be a physical game from start to finish. Last season, the 49ers defeated the Cowboys 19-12 in the divisional round of the playoffs. Both teams have top-five offenses and defenses so far in 2023.
Captain Option
George Kittle, $9,600
The 49ers tight end projected ownership in the captain slot is just 0.6%! He would be a solid contrarian play on Sunday night and a less expensive option you can deploy. On paper, the matchup with the Cowboys offense doesn't look great, but Kittle is set up to produce on primetime after a deeper dive.
The Cowboys play man-to-man most of any NFL team. Brandon Aiyuk leads the 49ers in target share when facing man at 28.6%, and Kittle is second on the team at 20.5%. Aiyuk will have tough matchups against Daron Bland and Stephon Gilmore on the outside.
The Cowboys’ linebackers are aware of McCaffrey and the SF run game. They will likely stack the box to try to slow down CMC, which will let Kittle get open over the middle on play action, leading to big chunk plays and possibly a touchdown.
Fade
Dak Prescott, Cowboys
The Cowboys QB has been a glorified game manager through the first four weeks. His average depth of target is the second lowest of any quarterback so far this season at 5.9 yards, and the 49ers’ defense has held opposing quarterbacks to the second-lowest yards per attempt. Opposing quarterbacks are averaging a measly 12.8 fantasy points per game against the Niners’ defense.
Cheaper Option
49ers Defense/Special Teams $4,000
San Francisco's defense has dominated this season. They have more interceptions than touchdown passes thrown against them through the season's first month. Their run defense should slow down Tony Pollard and the Dallas running game. They have allowed the second-least explosive runs so far.
Prescott threw for just 206 yards and had 2 interceptions in the playoff loss last year in Santa Clara. Most importantly, for the 49ers defense to pay off, they need to get out to an early lead. Prescott has the best quarterback rating playing with a lead, but he drops to 26th when he's playing from behind.
Prediction
There's no doubt this is the most intriguing matchup so far in 2023. Both sides have Super Bowl aspirations and belong in the conversation. Prescott and the Cowboys’ offense is healthy, so I expect them to perform much better in this game than in the playoff loss last year.
The Cowboys lead the NFL in pressure rate, but Purdy has yet to fold when he's under pressure in the pocket. Cowboys defensive coordinator Dan Quinn and 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan know each other's tendencies well. I expect the 49ers to win, but the Cowboys will keep it close and gain plenty of respect around the NFL.
Final Score: 49ers 23, Cowboys 20
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