September 10, 2023
MLB

Aces Are Wild Across MLB on Sunday

Big names on the mound, and Dodgers and Twins top stacking options
Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher Clayton Kershaw
Weather Report

There’s great baseball weather expected across the country except for games in the Northeast.

Yankees vs. Brewers (Bronx, NY) 1:35 pm ET– There’s a strong likelihood of thunderstorms in the NYC area throughout the day. They may face a myriad of delays squeezing in this interleague matchup.

Phillies vs. Marlins (Philadelphia) 1:05 pm ET – Nearly identical to the NYC forecast, rain and thunderstorms are expected to be abundant throughout Sunday in the City of Brotherly Love. The Phillies are scheduled to play a doubleheader on Monday so expect the two sides to somehow squeeze this one in.

Red Sox vs. Orioles (Boston) 1:35 pm ET – Rainy weather is expected to interrupt this AL East showdown. They close out the season against each other at the end of the month so they can push for a doubleheader then.

Injury Report

Luis Rengifo, Angels SS (biceps) -- Rengifo suffered a torn bicep in the on-deck circle in Saturday’s game. He will miss the remainder of the season.

Mickey Moniak, Angels OF (back) -- Moniak has been scratched from the lineup for three consecutive games with back tightness. There is a chance the Angels place him on the IL as they are firmly out of contention.

Shohei Ohtani, Angels RHP-DH (oblique) -- Ohtani sat for his sixth straight game Saturday, and it’s expected he will be out of the lineup again Sunday. This issue is separate from the torn UCL in his elbow so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Angels shut down the superstar. He is still considered day-to-day.

Mookie Betts, Dodgers OF (foot) – The Dodgers are calling Mookie’s foot injury a bone bruise after undergoing CT scans and an MRI. Manager, Dave Roberts has said Betts likely won’t play until next week.

Christian Yelich, Brewers OF (back) – The former MVP was scratched from Saturday’s lineup as a precaution, but it sounds like he won’t miss more time.

Top Priced Starting Pitchers (DraftKings)
  • Gerrit Cole vs. MIL: $12,000
  • Clayton Kershaw $10,800 (FanDuel)
  • Pablo Lopez vs. NYM: $10,500
  • Corbin Burnes vs. NYY: $10,200
  • Zack Eflin vs. SEA: $9,200
  • Eduardo Rodriguez vs. CWS: $9,100
  • Jesus Luzardo vs. PHI: $8,900
  • Jose Berrios vs. KC: $8,800

It’s Sunday and that means it’s aces wild across the league. You can insert some big names into your lineups. Among those aces is the frontrunner for AL Cy Young Gerrit Cole. He is the most expensive option on the slate for good reason. Cole has the third best ERA in baseball at 2.90 and he’s fifth in the league in strikeouts. He’s first in quality starts so it would be wise to fit him into your lineup.

On the other side Corbin Burnes will look to match zeros with Cole on Sunday. He’s not a sure bet to do so as he has struggled a bit more in day games with a 4.69 ERA compared to a 3.22 ERA at night. It also could be a fruitful decision to avoid both aces in the Bronx on Sunday as rain could interrupt their starts. Track the forecast pregame before inserting Cole or Burnes.

Jose Berrios’ matchup against the Royals at home looks great on paper, but this is one you may want to take a closer look at before making the decision to put him in your lineup. Despite pitching well in his last start versus the A’s, he had allowed five earned runs in back-to-back starts and finished August with an abysmal 5.53 ERA. He faced the Royals earlier this season and allowed 9 hits and 8 Earned Runs. He can redeem himself Sunday though as he has been lights out in day games throwing to a tune of a 2.06 ERA in 8 starts.

Pablo Lopez has shown brilliant flashes at times this season. He currently sits fourth in the league in strikeouts, and he has been excellent since the All-Star break. He has thrown to a 3.02 ERA but somehow, he’s been lucky. Opponents’ batting average is up to .275 post All-Star compared to .220 pre-All-Star. The Mets still present a formidable lineup with the likes of Lindor and Alonso but with some young guys now inserted New York is tied with the third lowest batting average since the All-Star break. The Mets lineup also projects well off Lopez so it's a true roll of the dice to pay for Pablo on Sunday.

Sneaky Option

Tanner Bibee vs. LAA: $9,500 (FanDuel)

This feels real great inserting into our lineups. The Angels will likely be without some dangerous bats moving forward -- Ohtani, Rengifo, and Moniak to name a few. Bibee has been sneaky good this season. He’s been the king of consistency going 14 straight starts allowing three earned runs or less. Over this span he has a 2.55 ERA, bringing his ERA on the year down to 3.05.

On Sunday, he will face an Angels lineup that has scored the third FEWEST runs since Aug. 1 and owns the seventh worst strikeout rate. With aces near the top of the board, expect the ownership rate to be somewhat low compared to other arms on Sunday.

Stack Attack

Dodgers vs. Nationals (Trevor Williams)

  • C Will Smith $5,500
  • 1B Freddie Freeman $6,100
  • 3B Max Muncy $5,000
  • OF JD Martinez $5,200
  • OF David Peralta $3,200

The Dodgers are having a tough time on their current road trip, but they get a juicy matchup with Trevor Williams on Sunday to close out their series in Washington. They’ll be without Mookie at least another game but Williams presents the perfect get-right spot. He allowed six earned runs in five innings in his lone start versus the Dodgers this season.

To no surprise Freeman bats .375 in his career versus Williams. Martinez is 2 for 5 with a homerun, Muncy 3 for 5, and Peralta .381 in 21 at-bats. Williams has also been terrible in day games with a 6.64 ERA in 13 starts. It also helps that the Nats bullpen owns the fourth worst ERA. I would get as many Dodgers in your lineups as you can.

Twins vs. Mets (Tylor Megill)

  • 2B Jorge Polanco $4,400
  • 3B Royce Lewis $4,800
  • OF Willi Castro $3,000
  • SS Carlos Correa $4,200

The American League Central leaders are a dominant force at Target Field. They are sixth in MLB in OPS, HRs, and slugging percentage at home this season. Megill presents a friendly matchup for the Twinkies. His home/away splits are eye opening. His 7.93 road ERA compared to his 3.43 ERA at Citi Field makes us salivate over the Twins lineup on Sunday.

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Weather Report:

There are only three games on the slate today and none should be impacted by precipitation.

Injury Report:

Jorge Soler - Hip - He left Tuesday’s contest against the Rays with right hip tightness. He is considered day-to-day and could be ready to go against the Nationals.

Lane Thomas - Back - He was lifted prior to the seventh inning due to back soreness. It doesn’t sound serious but there is a chance he sits out Thursday.

Mitch Haniger - Rest - Haniger returned from the injured list on Tuesday and sat out against a righty but the team said it was only due to rest. He should be ready to go on Thursday.

Starting Pitchers (DK-FD)

Spencer Strider: 12,500-12,000

Lance Lynn: 8,800-9,500

Braxton Garrett: 8,200-8,700

Pedro Avila: 6,300-6,700

Joan Adon: 5,400-6,400

Sean Manaea: 5,000-7,300

Spencer Strider is the highest-priced pitcher for the slate, which shouldn’t be surprising. He easily leads the slate with a 2.75 SIERA, 1.06 WHIP, and 38 percent strikeout rate. His 1.06 HR/9 is the highest of his career, without taking the two game appearance in the majors late in 2021 into account. His 60 percent HR/Barrel rate is above league average, which indicates that he could be getting a bit unlucky with the long ball. He faces a tough team in the Dodgers which makes the 12K+ price tag a bit steep.

Strider gets to go toe-to-toe with Lance Lynn in the last game in the slate on Tuesday. To say that Lynn has had an up-and-down season is a bit of an understatement. Lynn has a 3.99 SIERA, 1.38 WHIP, and 26 percent strikeout rate on the season but most of the damage was done while he was a member of the Chicago White Sox. Since joining the Dodgers, he has a 4.30 SIERA, 1.06 WHIP, and 21 percent strikeout rate. He faces a very tough task of facing the Braves in Dodgers Stadium. Since both of these pitchers face uphill battles, going cheap on the pitching while loading up on bats, could work tonight.

Braxton Garrett gets to face the Nationals for the second game in a row. Last time out, he allowed three runs over six innings while only picking up three strikeouts. This time around, he will be in the Nationals home ballpark, which has been below league average when it comes to the long ball, especially with the forecast projecting the winds to be blowing into the ballpark.

Batter to Target

Joan Adon is a pitcher that could be easily exploited in this small slate. His 4.44 SIERA is easily the worst of the group ad Nationals Park is a bit hitter-friendly this season. While the Marlins hitters have struggled in the second of the season Jake Burger ($4,100 on DK and $3,000 on FanDuel) could be an option for fantasy managers looking some cheap power.

Stack Attack

Marlins (Braxton Garrett) vs. Nationals:

DK-FD

Lane Thomas: 4,900-3,200

Keibert Ruiz: 4,000-2,600

Joey Meneses: 4,400-2,700

If Lane Thomas is ready to go on Thursday, he is a must add. The 28-year-old is hitting .346/.393/.591 with eight homers and nine stolen bases against southpaws this season. Ruiz and Meneses also have been above league average against left-handed pitching while hitting towards the top of the Nationals lineup.

Giants (Manaea) vs. Padres:

DK-FD

Ha-Seong Kim: 4,900-3,100

Gary Sanchez: 3,800-2,600

Garrett Cooper: 2,900-2,400

Trent Grisham: 2,800-2,500

The Giants haven’t officially named a starter for Thursday’s contest against the Padres but Sean Manaea figures to fill in as the bulk reliever. Ha-Seong Kim has been out of his mind in the second half of the season, while posting a season long line of .329/.413/.579 with eight homers and ten stolen bases against left-handed pitching. Sánchez and Grisham have also hit above league average against lefties and can be add at some really low prices. Cooper has moved up to sixth in the Padres batting order after Jake Cronenworth landed on the injured list with a fractured wrist. If the Padres bats come to life at the top of the order, you could pick up some RBIs at a considerably low price point.

It’s another full slate of games Wednesday, and there are more than a handful of interesting options to gander over. Colorado-Atlanta provides some intriguing value, but a ‘lesser’ game like Kansas City taking on Pittsburgh also offers intrigue.

Here are tonight’s Underdog and Prizepicks plays for Wednesday’s MLB slate.

Bobby Witt Jr. 1.5 Total Bases - Higher (Underdog)

It’d be hard to overstate just how good the Royals' infielder has been in August, as the young star has hit.327/.379/.626 with eight homers while stealing nine bags and driving in 21 runs even for a weak team. On Wednesday, he’ll go up against the Pirates' Andre Jackson; who pitched decently over his last two starts but offers plenty of opportunity with less-than-spectacular stuff. Don’t be surprised if Witt Jr. offers a combo meal with a homer and a steal, and he’s a good bet to reach the over on that 1.5 total.

Nolan Jones : 1.5 Total Bases - Higher (Prizepicks)

Somewhat quietly, Jones has been one of the better rookies in baseball, coming into Wednesday with a slash of .271/.353/.488. He’ll get a chance to place in the friendly confines of Coors Field, and the former Cleveland prospect will also get a chance to face a right-hander who is making his MLB debut in Darius Vines. Jones is hitless in his last three games, and while that makes things a little more nerve-wracking, it also means he’s due for a big game.

Matt Olson: 0.5 RBI - More (Prizepicks)

Olson will be going up against a lefty in Kyle Freeland, and while he is statistically worse against southpaws than he is righties, worse is a subjective term considering he’s posted an .891 OPS with nine homers and 27 RBI over his 125 plate appearances. Add in the fact he’ll be playing in the friendly confines of Coors Field with some elite hitters hitting in front of him, and Olson is as good of a bet for an RBI as any player Wednesday.

Dane Dunning: 4.0 strikeouts - Higher (Underdog)

Dunning has been able to miss bats at much higher rate as of late, with 39 strikeouts over 29.2 innings of work in his five starts thus far in August. The Mets certainly offer a chance for missed bats, and are not exactly in striking distance for a playoff spot. Dunning should be able to hit his mark as long as he can throw enough strikes to do so; something he admittedly struggled with Friday against the Twins.

Brandon Pfaadt : 4.5 Strikeouts - Lower (Underdog)

There’s reason for long-term upside with Pfaadt, as he was one of the best minor-league hurlers in baseball in 2022, and there have been some flashes of brilliance in 2023 despite his ugly 5.91 ERA and 1.36 WHIP over 67 innings during his rookie campaign. Asking him to reach this total is asking him to work deep against the Dodgers, a lineup that is as feared as any in all of baseball. There’s just too much risk on betting overs with Pfaadt against this kind of team.

The Houston Astros have terrorized the Boston Red Sox this week, putting up 19 runs over the last two games, both of which started by two of Boston’s best pitchers, Chris Sale and Brayan Bello.

Sale and Bello kept the games close, giving up three and two earned runs respectively, but the bullpen couldn’t contain Houston’s bats. Jose Altuve hit for the cycle in the first game, and Yordan Álvarez homered in both games, hitting seven for nine over the two nights.

Vlad Jr Could Go Off Wednesday

The Contrarian Edge Optimizer likes the idea of doubling down on the Astros stack -- a lineup that tied a franchise record 66 hits in the last four games -- but there are also alternatives to consider. Specifically, take a look at Toronto and Seattle. Both have excellent matchups today, so let’s take a closer look.

The Blue Jays face off against Patrick Corbin and the Nationals at the Rogers Centre this afternoon. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ($5000) could be poised for a big day. He’s riding a 10-game hitting streak, during which time he's slashing .302/.333/.438 with two home runs.

If you’re looking for some cheaper options to round out your lineup, keep an eye on both Blue Jays catchers. Danny Jansen ($3600) and Alejandro Kirk ($3000) are each available for less than $4000 on Draft Kings and rostering them should allow you a few extra dollars to roster a top tier bat or one of the three best pitchers on today’s card.

Either Santiago Espinal ($2400) or Whit Merrifield ($4400) could offer hits and runs if the Blue Jays put it together. And don’t sleep on George Springer ($4700), who’s been back in the leadoff spot this series and has put together a really nice run with a five-game hitting streak.

No August swoon for Seattle bats

The Mariners bats were momentarily silenced at T-Mobile Park on Tuesday night, but they’ve been red hot this month, leading the team to a 20-6 record in August. They should stack up nicely against Zach Neal, who’s starting for Oakland for the first time since 2016.

The Mariners have been excellent against right-handed pitchers this season, hitting .240/.323/.419 with a team wRC+ of 108 this season. During their hot streak this August, those numbers are even more impressive -- .279/.363/.486 and a wRC+ of 138 against right-handed pitching.

The Optimizer likes Seattle's Teoscar Hernandez ($4500) as one of your outfielders, and you could do worse than supplementing his production with leadoff man JP Crawford ($4300). Third baseman Eugenio Suarez ($4600) offers some nice pop and while you should avoid Julio Rodriguez, who is day-to-day after a late scratch on Tuesday night, Dominic Canzone ($3000) is a very cost-effective option who’s been on a nice run over the last 10 days, hitting .306/.306/.500.

Pitchers to consider

As for pitching, the wind is blowing in at Wrigley Field, and the Brewers' Brandon Woodruff ($10200) has looked every bit like the ace we know he can be since coming back from the injured list. He’s thrown 22.2 innings across four starts with 29 strikeouts, and only the Rangers scored more than two runs against Woodruff since his return.

Another pitcher to consider is the Giants' Logan Webb ($9500), who has gone five or more innings in 18 of 19 starts this season – including a seven-inning start with seven strikeouts against the Reds at Great American Ballpark in July.

Oracle is a much more pitcher-friendly environment, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Webb surpass that strikeout total from July with a free-swinging Reds team that ranks 25th in MLB with a 24.5 percent strikeout rate.

There are 15 MLB games on tap for Tuesday and a ton of opportunities to cash. The Seattle Mariners-Oakland Athletics game is very intriguing on both sides, and the Mariners have been one of the hottest hitting teams in baseball over the last few weeks. Here are tonight’s Underdog and Prizepicks plays for Tuesday’s MLB slate.

Teoscar Hernandez: 1.5 Total Bases - Higher (Underdog)
Hernandez has been excellent against left-handed pitchers and Ken Waldichuk has let up six hits or more in three of his last four starts, and he’s sporting an earned run average over six.

He’s hit the over on one and a half total bases in seven straight games. He’s homered three times in his last three contests. Hernandez is scorching hot hitting the ball in August, and he sits with a .371 batting average this month. Waldichuk has been a weaker pitcher on the road than at home, and tonight’s game is in Seattle.

Ty France: 0.5 Singles - Higher (Underdog)
France has singled in five of his last seven contests, and he hits way better against lefties, hitting .309 against them. France is having one of his better hitting months as he’s batting .284 in August. Waldichuk is more of a groundball pitcher, and France hits over 42 percent when it comes to ground balls. Between the amount of hits Waldichuk has given up lately, his struggles on the road and France having a strong month at the dish, he should be able to get on base this evening.

Ken Waldichuk: 5.5 Hits Allowed - More (Prizepicks)
With Waldichuk giving up at least six hits in a few starts recently, it’s hard to think that he’ll be able to shut down the Mariners who have been the best hitting team by average in the MLB over the last two weeks and third best over the last seven days. Waldichuk has a 7.43 earned run average, and opponents hit .303 against him when he’s starting on the road. Seattle hits .262 against left-handed pitchers which is the 8th highest in the majors.

Jose Altuve: 2.0 Hits+Runs+RBIs - Higher (Underdog)
Altuve has crossed the plate nine times total over his last three games. During that span he hit the ball seven times and produced five RBIs. Altuve hits .335 against right-handed pitchers, and even though Boston Red Sox pitcher Brayan Bello hasn’t given up a ton of runs in his starts recently, he’s allowed six hits or more in five straight starts. Last week in this exact matchup, Bello gave up nine hits against Houston, and since then, Altuve has heated up. Altuve has also been a better hitter on the road than at home, and this game is in Boston.

Manny Machado: 0.5 Singles - Higher (Underdog)
Machado has been reaching base a lot lately. Tonight, he faces St. Louis Cardinals pitcher Zack Thompson who is not only a lefty, but he’s surrendered six hits in both of his last two outings. Machado hits .327 against left-handed pitchers and he’s hit a single in three of his last five games.

Marcus Semien: 0.5 Singles - Higher (Underdog)
Semien hits better against left-handed pitchers than right-handed pitchers. He’s hit singles in four of his last seven games, and the Rangers' bats have woken up a bit in the last week. Semien has a good history against New York Mets pitcher Jose Quintana, hitting the ball six times in 13 at-bats against him. He has the most hits for the Rangers this season.