We’ve had two consecutive entertaining Thursday Night Football games with the Chiefs/Lions and Vikings/Eagles coming down to the wire. Can we make it three in a row? The odds are stacked against this one, but weirder things have happened.
Game
San Francisco 49ers vs. New York Giants
Betting odds (DraftKings)
- Line: 49ers - 10.5
- Moneyline: 49ers: - 500, Giants +380
- Over/Under: 44.5
Team ranks
49ers
- Points per game: 30 (3rd)
- Points allowed per game: 15 (3rd)
Lions
- Points per game: 15.5 (28th)
- Points allowed: 34 (32nd)
Key Injuries
Giants
- Saquon Barkley: Ankle, OUT
- Wan’Dale Robinson: Knee, Questionable
Without question, the biggest injury storyline in this game is the absence of Barkley after the star running back sprained his ankle late in the win over the Cardinals. The 26-year-old is a big loss in the running game but also has already received 11 targets as a checkdown for Daniel Jones.
It appears Matt Breida will be the first option for New York on Thursday with Breida going up against the team that gave him his first chance, but it seems likely the Giants will use RB-by-committee approach to replace Barkley with Gary Brightwell and potentially rookie Eric Gray.
Robinson has missed the first two games recovering from a torn ACL he suffered in 2022, but multiple outlets are reporting that the second-year player will play tonight. He had 227 yards on 23 receptions prior to the injury and should be involved in the passing attack if he plays.
49ers
- Brandon Aiyuk: Shoulder, questionable
The only fantasy-relevant injury question mark for the 49ers is Aiyuk, but it’s a big one. The wideout is going to be a game-time decision due to a shoulder surgery he suffered in the win over the Rams. He played through the injury but was a non-participant in Monday’s practice and a limited one Tuesday.
Even if Aiyuk is active he may not be in for his usual line of targets -- he played 52 percent of the offensive snaps in Sunday’s victory -- and there are options that might make sense to play over him that we’ll offer later. This is called a tease, in the industry.
Big Names/Big Prices (DraftKings)
- Christian McCaffrey, RB, $19,800
- Daniel Jones, QB, $15,300
- Brock Purdy, QB, $14,100
- Deebo Samuel, WR, $13,200
- Brandon Aiyuk, WR, $12,900
- Darren Waller, TE, $11,100
- Matt Breida, RB, $10,500
- George Kittle, TE, $9,900
Usually, a quarterback is the most expensive play on a Thursday, but it’s not surprising McCaffrey is the priciest. He’s gone over 100 yards and scored a touchdown in each of the first two games, and the Giants have allowed 136.5 yards per game on the ground -- seventh worst in the NFL. Even with teams looking to stack the box against McCaffrey, it’s beyond reasonable to expect a big game anytime he’s on the field.
Jones vs. Purdy is an intriguing quarterback matchup because of their difference in style and pedigree. Jones has helped fantasy players more with his legs than as a passer (102 yards rushing with a TD, 425 yards passing 2/3 TD/INT) after receiving a massive extension in the offseason.
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- QB Rankings: Make Room for the Rookie
- TE Rankings: YAC Attack in Detroit
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Purdy has completed 66.7 percent of his passes with a pair of scores a year after being the last selection of the 2022 draft and helping San Francisco reach the NFC Championship Game in his rookie season.
Jones offers the higher ceiling because of his ability to scramble, but Purdy has the higher floor because he doesn’t make mistakes and offers more weapons to get the ball to -- even if Aiyuk is unable to play.
This game also features two of the better tight end options in Waller and Kittle, but both are still looking for their first TDs. Kittle has received just nine targets and has yet to go over 30 yards.
Waller was a big part of the offense in the come-from-behind win over Arizona Sunday, however, with six receptions for 76 yards.
Both players are due for some scores -- particularly Kittle who picked up 11 touchdowns last season -- and it would be far from an upset if both players found paydirt Thursday.
Sneaky options
Jalin Hyatt, WR, NYG: $7,800
The third-round draft pick in April received only two targets against the Cardinals, but they went for 89 yards, including a 58-yarder to open the second half. The 6-foot, 195-pound wideout was drafted out of Tennessee in large part due to his big-play ability, and while there are some names ahead of him on the depth chart, it does seem likely he will be more involved with the offense going forward. A breakout game could be on the horizon.
Jauan Jennings, WR, SF: $6,600
Jennings’ value is at least partially tied into how much Aiyuk plays, if at all. After being held catchless against the Steelers, Jennings hauled in two passes for 51 yards against the Rams.
The 6-foot-3 Jennings offers a big target for Purdy and has had success when given a chance to play, and this is a friendly price point. If you’re feeling adventurous and Aiyuk doesn’t suit up, ponder Ronnie Bell. The seventh-round selection, who showed promise in the preseason, might be the third wideout in sets while offering just a $300 price point.
Eric Gray, RB, NYG: $2,100
Gray has yet to receive a carry or a target so far, so this is obviously a dart throw. The fifth-round pick out of Oklahoma in April has been doing punt returns. With Barkley out of commission and Breida along with Brightwell not exactly looking like stars in the backfield, it would make sense if New York gave Gray a look. At this price, the risk is worth it.
Prediction
On paper, this seems like a mismatch. The 49ers are one of the NFL’s best team, while the Giants got boat-raced by the Cowboys and needed an epic comeback to beat the lowly Cardinals.
The NYG will be without one of the NFL’s most electric playmakers in Barkley, and they’ll be facing the 49ers in SF’s home opener. A double-digit point spread is always scary in this sport and Thursday night games are often an adventure, but it’s impossible to pick against the favorite in this one.
49ers 27, Giants 17
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