In points leagues, poor free throw shooters and high turnover players don't hurt fantasy managers as much as they in other leagues, while players who don't score a lot of points lose some value. Those low scorers can make up for it by doing things by stealing the ball, blocking shots or crashing the boards, but the main difference between category scoring vs. points scoring is that the glaring weaknesses of poor free throw shooters and high turnover guys don't ruin your team.
In a points league, you want guys who are going to score a lot while contributing in other categories. If a player doesn't score a lot, but does other things well, he will generally struggle to be a big contributor in points leagues in most cases.
Players who don't score much rank lower in this format than in others. But every scoring format is different and you have to know yours well. Even if a player doesn't score a ton of points, if your league rewards steals or blocks with 3.0 or more points per steal or block, players who excel there can overcome a low-scoring average.
These rankings below highly ignore statistics that negatively impact players in other formats. Players who turn the ball over or can't make free throws, but score a lot of points nightly, really excel in this format.
Points leagues were built for players like Giannis Antetokounmpo and Shaquille O'Neal back in the day, throwing their poor free throw shooting and lack of 3-pointers out the window.
Here are our rankings for points-based scoring systems for the 2023-24 NBA season:
We’re about to enter the final weekend of the season. It’s been a crazy ride, and we only have a few days left to select our Underdog, and Prizepicks plays from a full slate of games.
The Wild Card races are as hot as ever. The highest stakes matchups are between the Cubs and Braves, with Chicago fighting for an NL Wild Card spot. Meanwhile, in the American League, the Mariners host the West-leading Rangers to kick off a massive 4-game series that may see one of these teams knocked out.
There are plenty of options on Prizepicks and Underdog, but I’ve narrowed down the best picks.
Luke Weaver 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (More) – PrizePicks
Weaver is with his third team this season, and for good reason. He has been terrible since 2020. He has allowed at least three earned runs in 19 of 28 appearances. In two of those 28, he was used as an opener, so realistically, that number is 19 of 26 – a 73% rate. He faces a Blue Jays lineup battling for the final AL Wild Card spot. The Jays bats have struggled this season, but Weaver will also struggle.
Sonny likes it when it’s sunny. His ERA is a miniscule 1.77 in 12 day games, and first pitch is 1:10 pm ET at Target Field. He faces an Athletics lineup that has scored the second-fewest runs in the league over the last month. Gray has gone under this number in six of his last eight starts and has the third-lowest ERA in MLB. The Twins may use this as a tune-up for their postseason campaign and not ask Gray to go deep into the game and risk the over.
Bryce Harper 7.5 Fantasy Score (More) -- PrizePicks
At home, Harper is batting an insane .354 with a 1.083 OPS. He will face Pirates pitcher Luis Ortiz, who has mostly struggled in his young career. He especially has had trouble with left-handed hitters, with opponents batting .340 with a .962 OPS. Harper has gone over this number in five of his last six games.
J.D. Martinez 2 Total Bases (Higher) -- Underdog
If you’ve followed along this month, you understand how easy it is to back the Dodgers. They have one more matchup at Coors Field, so we’re taking the opportunity to back some Dodgers hitters again. They face Chris Flexen, who has been smacked around by righties for a .344 batting average and 1.010 OPS. Martinez is the reigning NL Player of the Week. He’s 9 for 24 at Coors this season with three homers and is 2 for 6 in his career against Flexen.
Mookie Betts 11 Fantasy Points (Higher) -- Underdog
At Coors Field, Flexen has a 5.91 ERA, allowing 37 hits in 32 innings. Eleven fantasy points is wild, but if there’s anyone we should trust to get there, it’s Mookie. He has exceeded this number in three of five games at Coors. The Rockies bullpen is awful with a league-high 5.33 ERA.
Julio Rodriguez 0.5 Runs (More) -- PrizePicks
How do we not back Julio after last night’s drama? I’m opting for a run because he has struggled against Texas. Julio has had more success against left-handed pitching with a .313 batting average, and he will face Jordan Montgomery, who he is 1 for 3 against with a double.
Over the last month, J-Rod has scored the 10th most runs in MLB, and that number stays the same in divisional games, scoring the 10th most against divisional opponents. The Mariners are fighting for their playoff lives.
Welcome to the final Thursday slate of the MLB season! We have some great hitting matchups tonight with Coors Field and some ho-hum starting pitchers on the slate. Let’s dig in!
Weather Report
The Royals and Tigers game was suspended due to rain on Wednesday, but everything looks okay for both contests.
Injury Report
Tony Kemp – Kemp has missed the last four games due to a right ankle sprain. If he is not ready to go against the Twins, JJ Bleday will likely patrol left field.
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. – Gurriel Jr. was scratched from Wednesday afternoon’s affair against the White Sox with left shoulder discomfort. D-backs manager Torey Lovullo said he felt tightness while taking batting practice but he is expected to rejoin the lineup on Thursday.
Ryan Mountcastle – The slugger was activated prior to Wednesday’s game but remained on the bench with lefty Patrick Corbin on the bump for the Nationals. Chris Sale takes the ball for the Red Sox but one would expect Mountcastle to start.
Luis Arraez – He has missed the last three games with a left ankle sprain. It remains unlikely that the leader in batting average in the National League will be ready to go.
Starting Pitchers
DK
FD
Logan Gilbert
$9,700
$8,900
Jesús Luzardo
$9,000
$9,700
Jordan Montgomery
$8,800
$10,200
Chris Bassitt
$8,600
$9,500
Marcus Stroman
$7,900
$8,100
AJ Smith-Shawver
$7,400
$8,300
David Peterson
$7,000
$8,600
Luke Weaver
$6,700
$6,500
Ryan Yarbrough
$6,300
$6,900
Javier Assad
$5,900
$7,300
Chris Flexen
$5,000
$5,900
Jesús Luzardo – Luzardo ($9,000 DK/ $9,700 FD) has been outstanding in his second full season with the Marlins. The 25-year-old has a 3.73 ERA, 3.75 SIERA, 27 percent strikeout rate, and 7 percent walk rate over 171 1/3 innings. He has started to show the wear and tear of the longest season of his career, but he did toss six shutout frames with eight strikeouts against the Braves two starts ago. The Mets are the 20th best offenses against southpaws and with what feels like a must-win game for Miami, Luzardo could have a big night in the Big Apple.
Chris Bassitt – While he doesn’t get as many strikeouts as many other starters, Chris Bassitt ($8,600 DK/ $9,500 FD) is as reliable as they come. On the season, he has a 3.74 ERA, 4.36 SIERA, 22 percent strikeout rate and seven percent walk rate over 192 1/3 innings. If you remove the first start of the season where he was blasted for 10 hits and nine earned runs against the Cardinals, his line drops to a 3.38 ERA with a 1.16 WHIP. The Yankees have been playing better since they transitioned towards a youth movement but Bassitt feels safe at his price point.
Batter to Target
Luke Weaver – Once a promising young pitcher, Weaver has been a dreadful starter and is now on his third team, the Yankees. The Blue Jays are attempting to lock up a place in the playoffs. Over the last 14 days, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been outstanding. He is hitting .263/.391.658 with five homers and 10 RBI. With Weaver’s elevated HR/Barrel ratio (71 percent), it seems like we could see another homer from Vlad tonight. While Bo Bichette hasn’t been as good as Vlad, he still should be able to rack up a couple of hits and runs scored hitting at the top of the Blue Jays lineup.
Stack Attack
Dodgers vs. Rockies (Chris Flexen)
DK
FD
Freddie Freeman
$6,500
$4,600
James Outman
$4,300
$3,400
Jason Heyward
$3,700
$3,100
There were a couple of years when Chris Flexen was a good back-end starter, but those years are long gone. He has spent time with the Mariners and Rockies this season, posting a 7.01 ERA, 5.08 SIERA, 1.69 WHIP, and a dreadfully low eight percent K-BB ratio.
The right-hander faces one of MLB's best offenses in the Dodgers. In any other season, Freddie Freeman would be in the discussion for NL MVP, but even with hitting .333/.412/.568 with 28 homers and 23 stolen bases, he will likely finish third. After a rough late spring/early summer, James Outman has looked fantastic as of late, hitting .289/.347/.600 with four homers and nine runs scored since September 15.
While Jason Heyward has been on the struggle bus recently, this pitching matchup in Coors Field is too tantalizing not to take. On the season, the veteran outfielder is hitting .270/.343/.481 with 15 homers and 40 RBI across 365 plate appearances.
Cubs (Marcus Stroman) vs. Braves
DK
FD
Matt Olson
$6,300
$5,000
Michael Harris II
$4,300
$3,000
Orlando Arcia
$3,700
$2,800
The Cubs are slumping at the wrong time and their playoff chances hang in the balance. However, they face the best offense in the Braves before packing their bags to face NL Central foe Milwaukee starting Friday.
The Cubs will go with a tandem pitching approach, with Marcus Stroman used as a opener with Javier Assad most likely coming in after him. Matt Olson hasn’t smashed a homer in five games, so it feels like the slugger is due for one Thursday. The prices on the Braves hitters are steep but adding Michael Harris II and Orlando Arcia to the back half of your roster is an excellent way to get into the pristine Braves lineup.
With three weeks behind us, the NFL season feels like it’s fully underway and (mostly) starting to make sense (I’m looking at you Cowboys, what was that!?). Tua Tagovailoa and the Miami offense have been unstoppable, Jordan Love is an above average quarterback, Travis Kelce is smitten with Taylor Swift, De’Von Achane is as fast as advertised, the Falcons still hate throwing the ball and the Bears are an absolute disaster.
As the season falls into place, more information reveals itself, priors are proven right and even more are proven wrong, it’s up to us to fish out the relevant information and try to find that edge against our opponents.
Sometimes it makes sense not to rock the boat. Tua has been great and he’ll probably remain great for DFS with the Olympic track team he has. But sometimes we have to get contrarian with our stacks to set ourselves away from the crowd. We’ll give you a little bit of both here.
Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills
Josh Allen ($8200 DraftKings, $9000 FanDuel)
Stefon Diggs ($8200 DraftKings, $8700 FanDuel)
Dalton Kincaid ($3200 DraftKings, $4800 FanDuel)
All that talk about Tua in the intro and now I’m saying start Josh Allen!? Shoutout to our friend here at Sportstopia Terrell Furman for promoting this stack. We’ve got the highest total of the week at 53.5 and I WANT SOME OF THAT.
After what we’ve seen Tua and Tyreek do, you wouldn’t be the only one going back to the Dolphin well in Week 4. I’m trying to get on the other side of what should be a game where both teams score plenty. Allen and Diggs are no-brainers, but I like Kincaid’s involvement in the offense so far. Knox only saw two targets last weekend and seems to have lost his job to the rookie while injured.
Los Angeles Rams @ Indianapolis Colts
Matthew Stafford ($5700 DraftKings, $6600 FanDuel)
Tutu Atwell ($5500 DraftKings, $6300 FanDuel)
Tyler Higbee ($4200 DraftKings, $5100 FanDuel)
In the absence of Cooper Kupp, Rams QB Matthew Stafford has built quite the connection with two young wide receivers. Puka Nacua has been the highlight of this season, but don’t forget about Stafford’s favorite big play guy Tutu Atwell. Atwell out-targeted Puka on Monday and has seen 8 or 9 targets in every game.
Texans’ CJ Stroud threw the ball 47 times against the Colts, so if Stafford can stay alive behind his offensive line I’m expecting similar volume from a team that clearly wants to throw the ball. Puka will likely eat as well, but I’m taking the less rostered and just as involved player. Throw Higbee into the lineup as a contrarian tight end option. He’s been involved and is due a trip to the end zone. Shoutout to the Fantasy Sports Logic Contrarian Edge Optimizer for this Rams stack.
Las Vegas Raiders @ Los Angeles Chargers
Justin Herbert ($7800 DraftKings, $8600 FanDuel)
Keenan Allen ($7900 DraftKings, $9500 FanDuel)
OR
Austin Ekeler ($8500 DraftKings, $9600 FanDuel)
Chalk, chasing points, going back to the well, WHATEVER. Justin Herbert has been a fantasy star despite the Chargers early struggles and I’m going back for more after Keenan Allen’s big Week 3. Every quarterback to play the Raiders has thrown at least two touchdowns and no interceptions. This list includes Russell Wilson and Kenny Pickett, so I don’t expect Herbert to be the one to break the trend.
If Ekeler is in fact back, he’s equally as great of an option and you might get a slight dip in ownership due to fears of him coming back from injury. Herbert and Allen are chalk to the max. Ekeler captures the same upside but differentiates your roster from everybody else who watched what Keenan Allen did after Mike Williams went down.
If you read last week’s ‘Bargain Bin’,, let’s pretend I didn’t go 1 for 5 from the field — as Baker Mayfield, Kyren Williams, Jordan Addison, Nico Collins and Hunter Henry all performed below expectation.
Thankfully, Isiah Pacheco salvaged me by putting up a respectable and season-high in scrimmage yards while recording his first TD of the season in a drubbing of the struggling Bears.
I’m looking to atone for last week's debacle and here are the players I’ve hand-picked to assist me in that journey (all salaries are courtesy of FanDuel).
QB: Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals ($7,200, QB16 at cost)
Here’s a major positive: according to reports, Burrow left ‘Monday Night Football’ unscathed against the Rams and that there were no ‘setbacks’ to his strained calf.
Perhaps FanDuel hasn’t caught on yet, hence the low salary, relative to his standing amongst QBs in the NFL that is.
Burrow has a juicy matchup against the Titans in Week 4. While their front seven could wreak havoc against the Bengals’ still-questionable offensive line, the Tennessee secondary has been exploited all season.
Just ask Derek Carr and Deshaun Watson, who have each had their best games of the season (statistically) against Tennessee.
Against the Titans – ranked 28th in passing yards allowed per game (275.3) – Burrow is due for his best statistical output of the season. It doesn’t hurt that he and Ja’Marr Chase finally got on the same page on MNF, as Chase racked up a career-high in catches with 12 while simultaneously putting up a season-high in yardage with 141.
Arguably the healthiest he’s been in the last month or so and a matchup on tap against an opponent who's vulnerable against the pass? He’s a must-start. Give me Burrow all day long, baby!
RB: Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints ($6,500, RB24 at cost)
I know, I know. AK has yet to play because of suspension, but with the absence of Jamaal Williams (IR) and unproven depth at RB in New Orleans with only rookie RB Kendre Miller and Tony Jones Jr to spell him, I expect the Saints to put about as much on Kamara’s plate as he can handle in Week 4 against the Buccaneers.
Not as stout against the run like we’re accustomed to seeing, Tampa Bay has shown cracks in their run defense armor.
Take for example, DeAndre Swift’s 130 rushing yards in Week 3. Or the fact that Tampa allowed Philadelphia RB’s to account for 173 yards rushing (201 rushing yards on the day).
With Jameis Winston in at QB as Derek Carr is dealing with a sprained AC joint, I expect New Orleans to play more conservative in Week 3 and run more.
What better way to do that then with a RB who has fresh legs and is still considered one of the premium guys at his position?
WR: Tank Dell, Houston Texans ($6,200, WR40 at cost)
Another week, another fantasy scoring output north of 20 points for rookie WR Nathaniel ‘Tank’ Dell in Houston after he put up a 5-catch, 145-yard, and 1 TD performance in Jacksonville in Week 3.
After clamoring for the Texans to draft him shortly after he was drafted No. 2 overall, C.J. Stroud not only got his wish, but the Texans might have gotten one of the steals of the draft in the diminutive, yet explosive and extremely talented wideout from Houston.
Not only that, but this rapport has been making local headlines in Houston all summer long, as it was reported a number of times that Stroud and Dell had showcased strong chemistry with one another during training camp and that has since showcased itself through the first few weeks of the regular season.
Having received 7 targets and caught a TD in back-to-back weeks for the Texans, Dell is gaining traction as a coveted fantasy commodity and definitely not somebody you want to miss out on as this will likely be the last week you can get him outside of the top 30 at WR as far as price point.
One more point: the Steelers pass defense has been BLEEDING points to opposing WRs all season – just ask Brandon Aiyuk, Amari Cooper, Davante Adams, and Jakobi Meyers.
Start Dell with confidence.
WR: Joshua Palmer, Los Angeles Chargers ($6,100, WR41 at cost)
First off, prayers up for Mike Williams, who had been on a statistical tear to start the season.
In his place, enter Joshua Palmer, who finished Week 3 with 7 targets, 66 yards and a touchdown.
Against a secondary that has not only struggled all year long, but has been struggling for the last few years now, Palmer is very fantasy-friendly in one of the highest-scoring offenses in the league playing alongside one of the NFL’s most prolific WR’s in Keenan Allen.
And Palmer is the No. 2 option catching passes from one of the hottest QB’s in the game right now? It doesn’t get any better than that.
Hold on, maybe it does.
$6,100.
End of story.
TE: Jake Ferguson, Dallas Cowboys ($5,100, TE18 at cost)
Having received 4 or more targets in every game this season so far, Ferguson has flown under the radar as a fantasy relevant TE.
In a matchup that’s expected to be difficult for Dallas’ wide receivers as New England’s cornerbacks have been shut down, I expect Dak Prescott to look to Ferguson early and often as not only a security blanket, but as the go-to guy in the red zone as well.
Still entrenched as the TE1 on the depth chart ahead of other young TE’s with potential, Ferguson has even caught the attention of his QB, as Prescott is on record saying that Ferguson is ‘close to becoming a big-time guy’.
We’ll see if that tree bears any fruit come Week 4, but for now -- I’m willing to bet that it will, given what I’ve seen so far.
FLEX: Roschon Johnson, Chicago Bears ($5,300, RB51 at cost)
If you’re looking for the ultimate dart throw, look no further than the man matching up against a team that gave up 70 points and 350 yards RUSHING (on 8.1 yards per carry) to the Miami Dolphins last week.
While leading the league in scoring helps when it comes to accumulating fantasy points, don’t let the Bears’ inability to move the ball (or score points for that matter) stop you from getting a bargain on Johnson.
Coming off a season-high in snap percentage (45%), carries, and rushing yards, this is the week in which the Bears will start to utilize their talented rookie back. And if there’s a week for this offense to get back on track, it has to be against the Broncos, who have given up 105 POINTS in their last two outings.
With 50 other guys ahead of Johnson in the salary pecking order regarding RB’s, I don’t believe there could be more bang for your buck than in the former Longhorn.
The new “Mr. Consistency” did the thing. Sam LaPorta finished as TE1 in Week 3 and supplanted himself in the Tier 1 conversation next to Tj Hockenson, Mark Andrews and Travis Kelce ... until Kelce's snap share gets back to 80%+.
Be careful starting Zach Ertz, Cade Otton, Hunter Henry and Kylen Granson. Instead, get your hands on Luke Musgrave, who is the NEXT rookie tight end to break out; Noah Fant, who is cheap and attainable EVERYWHERE; and Cole Turner, who stepped into Logan Thomas’ role and finished as TE20 in his starting debut.
San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk -- QB Brock Purdy's favorite target among a plethora of SF pass-catchers -- has skyrocketed dozens of spots to No. 22 in our WR re-rankings heading into Week 4.
Aiyuk, who missed Week 3 with a shoulder injury, came off the injury report on Friday. Teammate Deebo Samuel is listed as questionable for the game at home against the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday.
Jalin Hyatt flopped in our face Thursday in Week 3. The opportunity was at arm's length and the Giants didn’t trust him with it. He finished with 0 points in a game that was set up directly for a splash play breakout.
Everyone's focus last week was Chargers at Vikings, and as predicted -- “Over the first two weeks of the season, Justin Herbert and Kirk Cousins have combined for 81 pass attempts per game, and I expect Sunday to be no different.” -- things exceeded expectations. The QBs combined for 97 attempts, allowing for all four of the targeted wide receivers to finish almost exactly where projected, each in the Top 24, with Jordan Addison finishing 24th.
In Week 4, Keenen Allen starts where he finished last week, at the top of the chart. While Allen and Mike Williams finished with massive performances in Minnesota, Williams is lost for the season with a torn ACL. Coming off of a 20-target performance and NFL-record third career 15+ catch game, Allen is poised for a repeat performance while hosting fellow 20-target monster Davante Adams.
Sleepers to target in Week 4 consist of Adam Thielen, who is no longer low-key thanks to back-to-back 20+ point outbursts. This week he plays his former team, the Vikings. Down the line is No. 54 Wan’Dale Robinson, who returned from an ACL injury in Week 3, and No. 58 Josh Downs, who faces a favorable speed mismatch at home against the Rams.
Week 3 brought forth a historic week for Fantasy points. The Miami Dolphins' dynamic duo of Raheem Mostert and Devon Achane combined for 96.5 fantasy points, 375 yards and 8 total touchdowns. Something we may never see again at the position.
The last team to score 60+ points in a game was the New Orleans Saints in 2011 against Indianapolis, 62-7. Achane and Mostert will return to the mean, due sheerly to opportunity. Jaylen Waddle will return, and Miami will not run that pure again.
Only one running back has finished with 19.9+ fantasy points in all three weeks so far: Christian McCaffrey.
Zack Moss was dropped into our lap in Week 2 for the Colts. He has scored 20+ fantasy points in both games after being inactive in Week 1. He finished as a top-10 fantasy back in both weeks.
Week 4 brings Moss's toughest matchup yet against the Rams. Los Angeles held McCaffrey to RB7, Joe Mixon to RB16 and Ken Walker to RB26 in the first three weeks. Moss enters the Week as RB15, with an offensive line that has returned to dominance in the face of a healthy Quentin Nelson.
This week might not draw a C.J. Stroud call like Week 3 did. He was ranked 25th by the Expert Consensus Rankings at FantasyPros, and he finished as QB13.
Meanwhile, if you tuned into Sportstopia last week, we had Stroud positioned at No. 8 in the rankings and marked as a must-play.
Jordan Love is currently the QB4 in Fantasy this season, despite continually being ignored by the consensus. His early Week 4 ranking for Thursday Night Football is QB18 in a matchup against the Detroit Lions in primetime. I have Love as the QB9 in this juicy divisional matchup, with Packers wice receiver Christian Watson projected to return, per interview with Watson.
Josh Allen's First NFL Season (2018)
28.3% Completions Under Pressure (Last)
10.3 aDOT When Blitzed (6th)
12.2 aDOT When NOT Blitzed (1st)
3.01sec Average Time to Throw (LAST)
68.7% Completion while taking LESS than 2.5 sec TTT
41.8% Completion while taking MORE than 2.5 sec TTT
16.3% Pressure to Sack (15th)
10 TD/12 INT in 11 Games started (5-6 record)
Jordan Love's First Starting Season (2023)
25% Completions Under Pressure (Last)
12.1 aDOT When Blitzed (3rd)
10.3 aDOT When NOT Blitzed (2nd)
2.56sec Average Time to Throw (17th)
54.9% Completion while taking LESS than 2.5 sec TTT
51.1% Completion while taking MORE than 2.5 sec TTT
It’s a great day to build around an ace as you’re trying to decide who to stack in daily fantasy.
Gerrit Cole ($12000/11100) tries to put an exclamation point on his Cy Young candidacy against the Toronto Blue Jays. Rogers Centre will be rocking with the Blue Jays trying to hold off the Houston Astros and the Seattle Mariners in the AL Wild Card race.
Alternatively, Pablo López ($11400/11300) against the A’s offers a solid, but less likely to be rostered by the rest of your contest ace. Admittedly, he has more variance in his outcomes than Cole does, but at times he's been excellent, including a 14-strikeout effort against the Mets on Sept. 10.
If you roster López or Cole, you'll need to pair them with a much cheaper pitching option. I like Sean Manaea ($6000/6900) against the Padres. His role has been in flux much of the season, but he’s gone more than five innings in each of his last three starts, including a 7-inning, no-run gem against the Los Angeles Dodgers his last time through the rotation.
For stacks, you can't go wrong with the Dodgers at Coors Field. Mookie Betts ($6700/$4900) can play second or outfield, and he's is in the middle of an MVP caliber season. He has a .299/.364/.505 slashline over 121 plate appearances at Coors Field.
Pair him with JD Martinez ($5700/$4500), who has been red hot over the last two weeks with a .333/.367/.733 slashline and five home runs.
If you’re looking for a more cost-effective Dodger consider Jason Heyward ($3900/3100). The Dodgers have deployed JHey very effectively and over the last two weeks he’s slashing .324/.343/.559.
Double check the lineups before game time. Heyward doesn’t play every day and if he’s not in the lineup, you’ll need to pivot to another cheap outfield option like James Outman.
Those Dodgers stacks can be pricey so consider pairing the Dodgers with some players from the Minnesota Twins, who are facing off against right-hander Joey Estes in only his second start. His debut did not go well, with Estes throwing just 4.2 innings and giving up five earned runs to the Mariners.
I recommended Edouard Julien ($4000/2900) and Matt Wallner ($3400/2800) last week, and I recommend them again. Wallner is slashing .394/.512/.636 over the last two weeks.
Julien’s .154 batting average won't jump out at you, but his 23.5% walk rate in the last two weeks does. He’s getting on base at a .353 clip over the last two weeks which means he’s a guy who can be driven in by other bats in the lineup.
Finally, Kyle Farmer ($3000/2700) is a very cost-effective 3B/SS option and he’s getting on-base at a .340 clip over the last two weeks.
It’s the final Wednesday of the regular season, and one of your final chances to take advantage of a full slate of games. Here’s some over/unders to take a look.
Tyler Glasnow: 7.5 strikeouts vs. Red Sox -- Over (PrizePicks)
This is a little risky, but with risk comes opportunity. Glasnow has pitched ineffectively over his last three starts and has a 5.72 ERA in September in five outings. He’s also registered a 39/9 K/BB over that time, and the last time he faced Boston, he threw six innings of one-run baseball while adding 14 strikeouts for good measure. Glasnow is a good bet to bounce back based on his track record, and the Red Sox lineup offers plenty of chances to miss bats.
Fernando Tatis Jr.: 9.0 total fantasy points vs. Giants -- Over (Underdog)
Tatis Jr. has had a disappointing fantasy season in 2023 -- if only because expectations are so high for one of the most talented players in the sport -- but there have been enough flashes of brilliance to believe in him when the right matchup comes along. That matchup could come Wednesday against a Giants team that was officially eliminated from the postseason on Tuesday against a hurler in Sean Manaea that is likely due for some regression. A combo meal (homer and stolen base) is well within reach, and the fact that Tatis hasn’t gone deep September 15 suggests he’s due for a round-tripper sooner than later.
Alejandro Kirk: 1.5 total bases vs. Yankees -- Lower (PrizePicks)
Even after picking up hits in his last two games, Kirk has really struggled over the month of September. He’s hit just .213 with a paltry OPS of .696, and he’s slashed just .240/.324/.341 against right-handers during his 2023 campaign. Add in the fact that he’ll be facing off against Gerrit Cole -- the presumed 2023 Cy Young winner based on his body of work thus far -- and it’s hard to justify betting on Kirk picking up a pair of bases on Wednesday, with all due respect to the backstop.
Bryce Miller: 90.5 pitches vs. Astros -- Under (Underdog)
Miller has had a strong rookie campaign; making the jump from Double-A and helping stabilize the Mariners’ rotation after the season-ending injuries to Robbie Ray and Marco Gonzales. He also is a pitcher that hasn’t gone over this total often in 2023, with six of his last nine starts seeing him throw fewer than 90 pitches, including his last two. Some of that has to do with efficiency (5.1 scoreless innings against the Dodgers on September 16), and some of it because of some struggles (six runs in 4.1 frames in his last outing) that you see from rookie hurlers. Either way, it’s a good bet that Miller will be out of the game before he reaches the 90-pitch total against Houston Wednesday.
Edouard Julien: 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI vs. Athletics -- Over (PrizePicks)
It’d be nice if this included walks because then it’d be a more obvious play; Julien has drawn seven walks over his last four games but hasn’t picked up a hit since last Wednesday. Considering how good he’s been in 2023 (.821 OPS, 14 homers in 105 games in his rookie campaign), it’s a good bet that the 24-year-old will start to see the hits dropping soon, and the fact he’s going up against the worst team in baseball in the A’s doesn’t hurt for this one, either. I’ll miss picking over/unders against the Athletics in 2023. Pretty good chance they’ll be a team to pick against in 2024, as well. Sorry, Oakland fans.
.svg){kind=icon}
.svg){kind=icon}