After an eventful Week 1 from the Dolphins and Chargers, I am most intrigued to continue to watch the super-nova that is Miami’s Tyreek Hill. His ability to get in and out of breaks in routes, which I don’t understand due to his lack of crisp route running, can only be explained as a “bend” in the route.
General route-running savants take aggressive cuts at the top of a route, whereas Hill just bends them, or cuts them short. But his sheer speed and explosion in those “bends” allows him to create upwards of six yards of separation on short inside slant routes.
If Hill and Tua Tagovailoa stay healthy, there is a near 100% chance that Hill surpasses his preseason goal of 2,000 receiving yards.
My favorite sleeper is the Texans’ Tank Dell. He was a sweetheart at the 2023 Reeces Senior Bowl, skating across the field with ease and separation. In Week 1, he and Noah Brown tied for third on the Texans with four catches each.
With Brown now on the IR, the door is open for Dell. Throughout training camp, analysts with boots on the ground in Houston called him “unguardable” and “the best” receiver on the team, while quarterback C.J. Stroud said he was his “favorite” target.
Intro: I watch every NFL game live, then watch it again on tape for scouting Fantasy/DFS and future betting (player props) purposes. And like a restaurant or movie ‘critic’, I’m here to report my critiques of this nationally televised game -- pro and con.
Let’s take a look at what I witnessed, the good and the bad, in the Broncos-Chiefs game on Thursday night.
WORST: No Million Dollar Prize
Always a worst when you don’t win the top prize.
It’s been two straight TNFs without winning for the Contrarian Edge Optimizer, after winning a share of top prize in back-to-back weeks. It felt like it was getting easy, so now it’s frustrating when we aren’t treating DraftKings like a personal ATM machine weekly.
But the Optimizer will be back at DFS prize fighting all day Sunday and then for MNF. The million-dollar first-prize chase never sleeps!
BEST: Buckle Up for the fireworks!
I was so excited to watch this game for the Fantasy impact. I have plenty of shares in Isiah Pacheco, Patrick Mahomes andTravis Kelce in every Fantasy format there is – Redraft, Dynasty, Best Ball. I got my parmesan garlic flavored popcorn and a tall Sprite Zero and settled in to watch a ton of KC offense ... and a ton of Travis Kelce commercials!
WORST: Where Were the Fireworks?
13-0 at the half? 19-8 final? Harrison Butker was nearly the top scoring Fantasy ‘thing’ in the game (that I have almost no FF shares in).
Dominant performance by the unit that has been the best for the Chiefs this season. You knew Denver had little chance to convert on any third down. So many times, the third-down plays were halted via a sack or flush of Russell Wilson out of the pocket. KC has held all six opponents this season to 20 or fewer offensive points.
OR THE REAL WORST: Broncos Offense
Some of what made the KC defense look so good was Denver's ineptitude. Wilson looks totally checked out or overthinking. His O-Line is weak, his wide receivers are poor. Sean Payton is supposed to be an offensive guru?
A bonus BEST to Pete Carroll and John Schnieder for dumping Wilson at the perfect time for a heist from Denver, in retrospect.
WORST: Chiefs Offense
The Chiefs have scored 20 or fewer points in half of their games. This passing attack looks out of sync has no weapons when Kelce is not involved. Denver has been getting run over by everyone, but not the Chiefs in this game. not by the Chiefs this game. Mahomes did throw for 300-plus yards, but you wouldn’t have guessed it from watching the game or the tape after -- several red zone failures and blown 3rd-down conversion attempts.
The Chiefs' offense has been a giant letdown. The countdown to the Chiefs trading for a WR by the trade deadline is on.
BEST: Let The Broncos Fire Sale Begin
The Broncos will be selling their two starting WRs in the next few days or weeks -- and possibly one of them to KC since Denver faces the Chiefs one last time this season in Week 8. They could send Courtland Sutton over as a mercenary for the rest of 2023 and not worry about the whole intradivision trade taboo.
Frank Clark has been cut and likely will wind up on the Chiefs.
Justin Simmons may be on the move.
I’ll bet Samaje Perine is back with the Bengals within a few weeks.
WORST: Who Wants Any Broncos Anyway?
The problem with the Broncos' WR fire sale is, they're mediocre. Denver tried trading Jeudy-Sutton in the preseason, but no one cared.
Denver can keep them both and let them go to free agency in 2024 and get third-round compensatory picks. What team would give higher than a third-round pick?
Only a sucker would trade big for Jerry Jeudy and give him a deal extension, so watch out for the Panthers as buyers there.
WORST: Where’s Taylor Swift?
Watching Swift react like she just saw a real-life unicorn appear whenever Kelce catches a simple pass made me wonder – I wish I had someone in my life cheering on me completing basic functions of my job.
My wife doesn’t even read my articles, not a one in decades of work. But Swift looks like parents watching their young child hit a game-winning home run in a youth baseball game whenever Kelce does anything.
We all could use a Taylor Swift in our lives, on so many levels. I don’t have that. The closest I get is I use a Swiftfer to clean my kitchen floor from time-to-time, at my wife’s request (demand). And she’s not cheering me on like a trained seal as I do it.
BEST: Late Field Goal Covers
AT LEAST my bet of KC -10.5 came through with some late luck.
I thought for sure KC would run the clock out and win by eight when they approached their final drive and blow the cover making this game experience even more ‘nothing’ for me. I was praying KC wouldn’t convert their last third-down attempt from field goal range, and thus need to kick the three-pointer to go up by 11 and then hold Denver.
KC didn’t convert, but the cosmic twist was Mahomes got sacked to create a very long field-goal attempt, which Butker nailed.
After a Wild Card round that saw four sweeps, there were two more in the League Division Series, and no series went beyond four games. Now, we have our League Championship Series set, with Texas taking on the Astros in the ALCS and the Phillies battling the upstart Diamondbacks in the NLCS.
Here’s what to look for in each series with a prediction for who will meet in the World Series, which begins Oct. 27.
How the Astros got here: AL West champions, 3-1 series win over Minnesota in the American League Division Series.
How the Rangers got here: 2-0 series win over Tampa Bay in the Wild Card Series; 3-0 series win over Baltimore in the American League Division Series.
Lineups: The Astros have loads of playoff experience and a red-hot Yordan Alvarez, who has pulverized postseason pitching throughout his career, to go with October stalwarts like Jose Altuve (outside of his dreadful 2022 run) and Alex Bregman to go with a resurgent Jose Abreu, among others. The Rangers, meanwhile, have one of the most complete groups in baseball, led by MVP candidate Corey Seager but also Marcus Semien, rookie wunderkind Evan Carter and a host of other players capable of taking the ball out of the park.
Advantage: Rangers
Rotation: This should be an advantage for the Astros, but how big of one depends on whether or not Max Scherzer (shoulder) returns. Nathan Eovaldi has been phenomenal in the postseason throughout his career and Jordan Montgomery was a massive get for the injury-riddled Texas rotation at the deadline. There are significant questions behind those two, questions that become less emphasized if Scherzer makes the roster, while the Astros will have Justin Verlander, Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier and likely Jose Urquidy.
Advantage: Astros, but again, depends on whether Scherzer can go.
Bullpen: An easy one, on paper, anyway. The Rangers’ bullpen was awful down the stretch even after the acquisition of Aroldis Chapman, and while Jose LeClerc and Josh Sborz have been able to get the job done, it’s fair to say Texas fans will have unease in the late innings. Meanwhile, the Astros have a reliable closer in Ryan Pressly, two set-up relievers that were lights out in Bryan Abreu and Hector Neris, and the ability to use talented rookie Hunter Brown -- or Urquidy -- as a multi-inning option. This one’s not close. Advantage: Astros.
Prediction: The Astros are clearly the better pitching team, but Texas has been streaky all year, and they appear to be on another hot streak. I’ll predict them to stay hot in what should be a very fun series. Rangers in 7.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks, NLCS
Regular season results: Phillies 4, Diamondbacks 3
How the Phillies got here: 2-0 series win over Miami in the NL Wild Card Series, 3-1 win over Atlanta in the National League Division Series.
How the Rangers got here: 2-0 series win over Milwaukee in the NL Wild Card Series, 3-0 series win over Los Angeles in the National League Division Series.
Lineups: The Diamondbacks were a middle-of-the-road lineup in 2023, ranking 14th in runs scored, batting average and on-base percentage. In the postseason, however, Arizona has looked the part, led by superstar rookie Corbin Carroll but also getting significant contributions from Ketel Marte, Christian Walker, Gabriel Moreno and Tommy Pham. The Phillies’ lineup seems a tad more reliable with superstars Bryce Harper and Trea Turner and a host of other quality options.
Advantage: Phillies.
Rotation: This one’s close. Arizona and Philadelphia have excellent options at the top in Zac Gallen and Zack Wheeler, respectively, and a quality No. 2 with Aaron Nola for the Phillies and Merrill Kelly for the Diamondbacks. Brandon Pfaadt will be the third starter for Arizona and has pitched well in the postseason after a (very) inconsistent rookie campaign, and it’ll likely be Ryne Nelson in Game 4. That’s where the edge goes to the Phillies, as Ranger Suarez and either Taijuan Walker or Cristopher Sanchez getting the ball in the fourth game.
Advantage: Phillies.
Bullpen: The Diamondbacks were a bit of a mess for most of the season, but the trade for Paul Sewald helped solidify the backend of the relief corps, and arms like Kevin Ginkel, Joe Mantiply and Andrew Saalfrank were fantastic in the first two postseason series. Philadelphia had bullpen issues over the previous two seasons, but the return of Jose Alvarado gives them a legit relief “ace,” and a resurgent Craig Kimbrel along with impressive rookie Orion Kerkering gives the Phils their best postseason bullpen in quite some time.
Advantage: Gotta go Phillies, just based on the track record.
Prediction: I’ve predicted the Diamondbacks to flame out in each of the previous series, and it hasn’t worked out (note: it has nothing to do with disdain towards Arizona, they’re truly one of my favorite postseason stories in years.) I won’t do that this time, but I am going to pick a Philadelphia team that just seems built for October and will have the home field advantage. Phillies in 6.
On paper, this is not only a mismatch, it’s one of the more lopsided games of the 2023 season. That being said, there’s a reason why we play the games, and well, weirder things have happened.
Game
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Denver Broncos
Betting odds (DraftKings)
Line: Chiefs -11
Moneyline:Chiefs -625, Broncos +455
Over/Under: 47
Team Ranks
Chiefs
Points per game: 25.7 (9th)
Points allowed per game: 16 (5th)
Broncos
Points per game: 24.2 (10th)
Points allowed per game: 36.2 (32nd)
Key Fantasy Injuries
Chiefs
TE Travis Kelce (Ankle), QUESTIONABLE
Kelce was able to return to Sunday’s victory over the Vikings after suffering a low ankle sprain and even scored a touchdown, but it’s a short recovery time for the All-Pro tight end, and he was limited in both of his practices this week. If Kelce can’t go, Noah Gray is likely to get the start and has shown he’s capable of providing fantasy relevance, but there’s obviously a big difference in talent between Gray and Kelce.
Broncos
TE Greg Dulcich (Hamstring): QUESTIONABLE
Dulcich was a full participant in his last practice, and the Broncos designated him for return from injured reserve Tuesday. That doesn’t necessarily mean he'll be active, however, as Denver has a 21-day period to decide. If Dulcich does come off IR, he should see a decent amount of snaps and targets in a game where Denver is likely going to have to throw the football. A lot.
The biggest injury news for Denver is a non-designation, however. Javonte Williams appears to be a full-go after missing Sunday’s loss to the Jets with a quadriceps injury. The 23-year-old tailback has played 40-45 percent of the snaps when active, so while he can’t be considered the bell cow, he should see plenty of touches against a Kansas City rushing defense that ranks 23rd in yards-per-attempt (4.3).
Big Names/Big Prices (DraftKings,Non-Captain Prices)
Patrick Mahomes, QB: $12,800
Travis Kelce, TE: $11,000
Russell Wilson, QB: $9,600
Isaiah Pacheco, RB: $9,400
Jerry Meudy, WR: $9,000
Courtland Sutton, WR: $7,800
Javonte Williams, RB: $7,200
Jaleel McLaughlin, RB: $7,000
Rashee Rice, WR: $6,400
Even if Kelce can’t play and the rest of the KC receiving group isn't exactly drawing the envy of the league, it’s hard to picture Mahomes not having a big game against the Denver defense. Even while ranking just eighth in opponent pass attempts, the Broncos currently rank 29th in yards allowed and dead last in preventing passing touchdowns and net yards per attempt. Simply put, the best quarterback in the sport is going to face arguably the worst passing defense in the sport. Gulp.
While Mahomes is the obvious choice for a big night, Wilson has a good chance to put up some numbers as well, especially with the veteran signal-caller likely needing to chuck the ball to keep up with the Kansas City offense. The Chiefs have allowed 5.2 yards per attempt (5th in the NFL), but they’ve already “allowed” 185 passing attempts and 1,021 yards as teams have given up on the run early. Wilson is not the same player he was a few years ago in Seattle, but he should be able to put up decent stats --albeit in a likely loss.
The return of Williams puts a damper on his situation, but McLaughlin is an intriguing play after impressing over the last two weeks. The rookie running back has turned 16 carries over the last two games into 140 yards and caught a touchdown pass in each of the last two contests. A large bulk of the yardage for McLaughlin has come on long runs more than churning them out but that big-play ability does make him worth a shot in DFS formats, as does his involvement in the passing game.
Sneaky Options
Marvin Mims Jr., WR, DEN: $4,600
Mims disappointed in the loss to the Jets with just one reception for four yards, and he’s clearly behind Sutton and Jeudy in the pecking order while competing for targets from the Denver tailbacks and tight ends. Mims still leads the Broncos in receiving yardage with 246 through five games, and he’s one of the few big-play threats on the roster. Mims isn’t likely to see more than a spoonful of targets, but he only needs to turn one of them into a big play to have a successful day. I’d be willing to bet on it.
Samaje Perine, RB, DEN: $5,000
Perine ranks third on the Broncos in targets behind Sutton and Jeudy and hauled in four passes for 73 yards against the Jets. The veteran running back may not receive many carries with McLaughlin breaking out and the return of Williams, but there’s no doubt Perine will see a role in the passing game. It’s very likely the Chiefs offense and weak Broncos defense will make this a game where Denver has to throw quite often. It shouldn’t shock if he puts up similar -- if not better -- numbers to the ones he put up against New York.
Justyn Ross, WR, KC: $600
Calling this a shot in the dark is the understatement of understatements. Ross has just three catches on the season, but two of those came against Minnesota on Sunday, and he was targeted four times despite playing just six offensive snaps. The (extremely) low price would allow fantasy players to target the overwhelming majority of big names, and if this game gets out of hand, it’s not hard to imagine that Ross will see more playing time in the second half than he typically does; similar to what took place in the rout of the Bears in Week 3. Again, it’s risky, but if you’re running low on funds for your lineup, why not?
Prediction
A glass-half-full person would note that the Broncos could very easily be 3-2 with two one-score losses and a late defensive touchdown by the Jets that prevented a third. A glass-half-empty person would note that Denver has played one of the weaker schedules in the league, should have lost the only game they won if not for some silly mistakes by the Bears, and gave up a 70-burger to the Dolphins in the one game against a true contender in 2023. Someone who just sees a glass with some water in it will say that the Chiefs are good and the Broncos aren’t.
Travis Kelce was on his way to returning to Travis Kelce ways, before a low ankle sprain slowed him up for half a quarter. Kelce still finished with 11 targets and as the TE3 on the week. This is just another reminder of the volatility of the TE position in Fantasy Football, and if your league mate is getting nervous and upset with Kelce's lack of “BIG GAMES”, you should be the first guy in line to make the move for Kelce.
After an impressive multi-touchdown game, rookie Sam LaPorta jumped Mark Andrews, T.J. Hockenson and Travis Kelce as the TE1 on the season. Keep firing him up, even when the matchups get tough.
Keep a keen eye on and be careful starting Tyler Higbee, Dalton Kincaid, David Njoku and Dalton Schultz. Instead, trust Noah Fant, who is cheap and attainable everywhere.
Finally, we're going back to the well with Andrew Ogletree, who saw another snap share spike in Week 5 from 44% to 61%, surpassing Kylen Granson, who dropped from 55% to 39%.
We were high on Adam Thielen again in Week 5, but even we weren’t high enough. Thielen finished as the WR4 during a week of MEGA games from Ja’Marr Chase, DJ Moore and Tyreek Hill.
My favorite game in Week 6, is the Vikings and Bears. DJ Moore has a chance to triple down on top-5 finishes against the Vikings, while being the only wide receiver with a reception on the Bears. Justin Jefferson was placed on IR this week with a hamstring injury, opening the door for rookie Jordan Addison to officially break out. Addison has scored a touchdown in three games and finished with 50-plus yards in four of five games. Addison will step into Jefferson’s role and finish as a top-16 play with upside to have a mega breakout.
Jonathan Mingo finished as WR36 in Week 5, despite Terrace Marshall reeling in 10 targets the previous week with Mingo out of action with a concussion. At 41 is Zay Jones, who returned in Week 5 and finished as WR28. He hadn't played since Week 1, where he finished as WR18. Jones is a strong flex option on a weekly basis.
Deep and asleep is Jaxon Smith-Njigba -- an ugly one, but we saw JSN finish with six targets twice in four games before the bye week.
Year after year, opportunity is had for offenses to build through bye weeks with rookie wide receivers, and this year is no different.
After a slow start to the season, the Raiders have turned up the volume on XM-Josh Jacobs. His efficiency in the run game has stabilized, the rust has been shaken off, he scored in back-to-back games and has earned 21 targets over the last three weeks. Look for Jacobs to again be a top-5 option in Week 6 against the injured and miserable Patriots.
After a massive win in England for the Jaguars, Travis Etienne is on a tear to continue building his case to be the “next best” all-purpose back in the NFL. He has four receptions in three of five games in 2023, a number he never hit in 2022.
The sleeper play of the week belongs to the Chargers' Joshua Kelley at RB43. I don’t love that ranking, but this is one I can see myself adjusting over the next 72 hours. Austin Ekeler is back in Week 6 and fixated at the top of the sheet at RB5, however the last time these two played together was Week 1, when Kelley finished as RB12 and Ekeler RB1.
Kelley has been dropped in a ton of fantasy leagues, but as a strong No. 2 in this offense, Kelley holds standalone value, with Ekeler in the lineup.
The Vikings and Chiefs did not disappoint in Week 5, finishing with a 47-point total and 88 pass attempts. Patrick Mahomes and Kirk Cousins finished as top-12 quarterbacks. However, the top game duo was Bears vs Commanders. Justin Fields finished as QB1, while Sam Howell threw for 388 yards in garbage time, finishing as QB5.
In Week 6, Fields -- a back-to-back top-3 finisher -- hosts Kirk Cousins and the Vikings, with the total at 44.5 in the Windy City. On Monday, we may just get a “Monday Knighting” from the Chargers and Cowboys game, with both teams looking for big bounce backs. The Cowboys were crushed by the 49ers in Week 5 and the Chargers had a bye.
The biggest differentiator this week is the consensus trust in the New Orleans Saints' defense to put up a repeat performance against C.J. Stroud and the Texans. In Week 5, the Saints blanked the Patriots and Mac Jones, while Stroud and the Texans fell in a heartbreaker to the Falcons. I am riding the pine with Stroud this week as QB10 in a bounce-back spot at home. The consensus is QB16.
Tiers can help fantasy managers determine exactly when it’s time to take the player they’re looking at. If you’re torn between a shooting guard and a center and the center you’re looking at is a Tier 2 player, while the SG is a Tier 1 player, we’d recommend taking the SG. Players with similar values are grouped in tiers together, so getting the higher-tiered player is the way to go in most cases. Here are our Small Forward Tiers.
Tier 1
Jayson Tatum
The best small forward in the game.
Tier 2
Kevin Durant
Can Durant stay healthy and lead the Suns to a championship?
In case you’re wondering, a post-hype sleeper is a player who may have disappointed us in the past but we think is going to have a bounce-back season. I suppose this could be injury or performance related so you’ll see a mixture of both here. Let’s dive right in.
LaMelo Ball PG Hornets
Injuries are a concern with Ball and limited him to just 36 games last season and 51 games as a rookie. He was on track for a monster season before an ankle injury that required surgery shut him down early, but he was averaging 23.3 points, 6.4 rebounds, 8.4 assists, 1.3 steals and 4.0 3-pointers per game before being shut down. His ability to stay healthy will always be the biggest concern with Melo but he’ll be a top-10 player if he can stay on the court.
Trae Young G Hawks
Young had to adjust to playing alongside Dejounte Murray last season and also constantly heard his own name in trade rumors on Atlanta radio while playing with a mediocre supporting cast. He still produced solid numbers with 26.2 points, 3.0 rebounds, a career-high 10.2 assists, 1.1 steals and 2.1 3-pointers in 73 games. The scoring and triples were a bit of a letdown, but the assists and steals helped make up for it. Chances are he’s learned how to coexist with Murray heading into his sixth NBA season and he’ll be looking to build on his 2021-22 season after a bit of a down year last season.
Cunningham only played in 12 games last season before succumbing to shin surgery but is healthy and the best player on a young team. He was cooking before being shut down, averaging 19.9 points, 6.2 rebound, 6.0 assists, 0.8 steals, 0.6 blocks and 1.4 3-pointers in 33 minutes per game. It’s possible the Pistons reel in his minutes a bit to keep him healthy, but he’s primed for a monster fantasy season if he can stay on the court for 70-plus games.
Chet Holmgren C Thunder
Holmgren missed the entire season with a foot injury but has looked fantastic in preseason. He’s skinny as a bean pole but can score, rebound, block shots and knock down 3-pointers at will and looks like a value pick in Round 4 of fantasy drafts. He could easily finish with second-round value if he stays healthy.
Devin Vassell SG Spurs
Vassell was cooking last season before missing a couple months with a knee injury and will be playing alongside Victor Wembanyama. While Wemby gets all the headlines in San Antonio, Vassell should not be forgotten after averaging 18.5 points, 3.9 rebounds, 3.6 assists, 1.1 steals and 2.7 3-pointers in 38 games. The Spurs will turn him loose, he’s fully healthy and should be an incredibly fun fantasy player to roster as he enters his fourth season.
Alperen Sengun C Rockets
Sengun took a nice step forward last season, averaging 14.8 points, 9.0 rebounds, 3.9 assists, 0.9 steals, 0.9 blocks and 0.3 3-pointers, shooting 55.3 percent from the floor and 71.5 percent from the line. He took a big leap from his rookie numbers and we’re expecting another step forward as he enters year three. A full breakout season should be coming for Sengun as long as he can stay healthy.
Deandre Ayton C Blazers
Ayton will be starting at center and won’t have to compete with guys like Devin Booker, Kevin Durant and Damian Lillard for shots. Ayton had five solid seasons in Phoenix but probably needed a change of scenery. He averaged 18 points, 10 rebounds and 0.8 blocks last season and should be more of a focal point offensively for his new team. He’s averaged a double-double in each of his five seasons and it wouldn’t be surprising to see him clock in with 21 points, 11.5 rebounds and 1.5 blocks this season. Phoenix fans may regret losing Ayton at some point and he should be ready to play well in Portland.
Anfernee Simons PG Blazers
Damian Lillard is now in Milwaukee, clearing the way for Simons to either start at point guard (in front of Scoot Henderson) or shooting guard. He’s been a fun fantasy fill-in whenever Lillard has been out in the past and he no longer has to deal with having Lillard dominating the offense. Simons averaged 21.1 points, 2.6 rebounds, 4.1 assists, 0.7 steals and 3.4 3-pointers in 62 starts last season and could be the leading scorer for the Blazers. If he can get more steals, the sky’s the limit.
Cameron Johnson SG/SF Nets
Johnson had a mini-breakout after being traded to the Nets from the Suns last season and averaged 16.6 points, 4.8 rebounds, 2.1 assists, 1.4 steals, 0.3 blocks and 2.3 3-pointers in 25 games for Brooklyn. The points, boards, dimes and steals were all career highs and he should be a focal point on offense for the Nets. After Mikal Bridges, Johnson looks like the Nets’ second best player and should be able to build on last season’s success.
Andrew Wiggins SF Warriors
Wiggins missed a ton of time last year with various injuries and an extended personal leave, averaging 17.1 points, 5.0 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 1.2 steals, 0.8 blocks and 2.4 3-pointers in just 37 games. He’s back and healthy and should return to the form that made him an All-Star starter a couple years ago. Averages of 19 points, 5.0 rebounds, 3.0 assists, a steal, a block and 2.5 3-pointers aren’t out of the question and he can be had in the middle to later rounds of most drafts.
Shaedon Sharpe SG Blazers
Sharpe averaged just 9.9 points, 3.0 rebounds, 1.2 assists, 0.5 steals, 0.3 blocks and 1.3 3-pointers in 80 games for the Blazers last season. But those numbers jumped up to 18.5 points, 4.9 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 0.7 steals, 0.4 blocks and 2.3 3-pointers in his 15 starts and the Blazers will look to him for offense. He’s one of the most exciting dunkers in the game and a full breakout season could be coming for a team looking for a young player to help replace the scoring of Damian Lillard, who is now in Milwaukee.
Dennis Schroder PG Raptors
Fred VanVleet is now in Houston and Schroder is the default starter at point guard for the Raptors. As long as they don’t turn to Scottie Barnes at the point, Schroder should be primed for a fun fantasy season. The journeyman averaged 12.6 points, 2.5 rebounds, 4.5 assists, 0.8 steals and 1.1 3-pointers for the Lakers last season but it wouldn’t be surprising to see him average closer to 15 points for his new team. He’ll be available late in drafts and should see 30 minutes per game, making him a nice sleeper candidate.
Miles Bridges PF Hornets
Bridges will miss the first 10 games after last year’s domestic violence issues, but once the suspension is over, he could go off. The last time we saw him play was in the 2021-22 season when he averaged 20.2 points, 7.0 rebounds, 3.8 assists, 0.9 steals, 0.8 blocks and 1.9 3-pointers. He’ll have to compete with P.J. Washington for minutes but if he’s in shape, Bridges should come in hungry, healthy and ready to get back to the business of basketball. There are worse ways to use a 10th-round fantasy pick.
Keegan Murray PF Kings
Murray was underwhelming as a rookie, averaging just 12.2 points, 4.6 rebounds, 1.2 assists, 0.8 steals, 0.5 blocks and 2.6 3-pointers in 29.8 minutes over 78 games. If he can increase his scoring to 18 points, as well as build on his other stats, he could be a key asset to fantasy managers. He’s already a strong 3-point shooter and has looked more aggressive getting to the rack in the preseason. Murray appears to be poised to take a big step forward in Year 2 and shouldn’t be expensive.
It’s Week 6 already? They weren’t lying when they said ‘time flies when you’re having fun’ were they?
Anyway, I appreciate everyone who's been along for the ‘Bargain Bin’ journey with me thus far, I truly take pleasure in writing this column weekly.
Get those seat belts buckled in and continue to join the ride! Looking to set the ULTIMATE bargain-based lineup in DFS? Like I said last week, (I think I’ll start saying this regularly, but we’ll see) never fear, Steezy A. Smith is here (all salaries courtesy of FanDuel).
QB: Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks ($6,800, QB22 at cost)
Game: Seahawks at Bengals, 1 p.m. ET Sunday
If it isn’t ‘Mr. I Ain’t Write Back himself’! First and foremost, happy belated 33rd birthday to Geno Smith! Perhaps a statistical masterpiece will suffice as a late birthday gift to himself?
Jokes aside, and weather permitting, Seattle’s showdown with the Cincinnati Bengals is a very intriguing matchup that should feature plenty of fireworks. I’m surprised the over/under for total points is only set at 45.5!
If you watch/listen to our ‘Fantasy Fire and Ice’ shows (if you don’t already, you really should), I always talk about following the highest scoring games and inserting those players into my fantasy lineups. Seattle and Cincinnati is one of those games.
Seemingly healthy after sustaining a knee injury in Week 4 against the New York Giants, Smith and the rest of the Seahawks have had plenty of time to rest up and recover after having a bye in Week 5. The rest of the team around Geno is starting to get healthy as well, and there’s a chance LT Charles Cross (toe) will be active.
Geno, DK Metcalf, and Tyler Lockett vs Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, and Tee Higgins? Get your popcorn ready folks! This is the rightful ‘Sunday Night Football’ matchup. No one, including Giants fans, wants to see them get whooped on national TV again.
RB: James Cook, Buffalo Bills ($6,600, RB22 at cost)
Game: Giants at Bills, 8:20 p.m. ET Sunday
On the heels of an abysmal Week 5 performance against the Jacksonville Jaguars in London, Cook is primed for a major bounceback.
Here’s a rule of thumb from here on until they start to show more competency: anytime there’s a player going up against the Giants, you start them. Simple as that. Not only is the Giants defense allowing the 6th-most fantasy points to opposing RBs, but they’re also dead last in the NFL in point differential - a hideous -9.
As for the Bills? They’re second in the NFL, with a point differential of 79. Talk about being on opposite ends of the spectrum. Favored to win by two TDs, game flow/script will also favor Cook and the Bills.
With an over/under total set at 52.5 rushing yards, smash the over on that and fire up as many Cook shares as you can in fantasy!
WR: KJ Osborn, Minnesota Vikings ($6,200, WR41 at cost)
Game: Vikings at Bears, 1 p.m. ET Sunday
In the wake of Justin Jefferson’s hamstring injury that landed him on injured reserve – meaning he’s out four games at least ¬-- this might be the cheapest you can get Osborn. Get him now while you still can.
Having played 80 percent or more of Minnesota’s offensive snaps in every game this season, Osborn will now be the WR2, behind TJ Hockenson and Jordan Addison. In an offense as pass heavy as the Vikings, that’s a cheap flex play every time.
Without Jefferson, the Vikings aren’t the same team and might have more games in which they find themselves trailing. A case in point was Week 5 against the Chiefs, where Osborn finished with five receptions for 49 yards on 9 targets.
To top it off, the Bears allow the 13th most fantasy points to opposing WRs and have been on a hot streak themselves, so I expect plenty of points scored on both sides.
WR: Zay Flowers, Baltimore Ravens ($6,000, WR43 at cost)
Game: Ravens at Titans, 9:30 a.m. ET Sunday
Having yet to eclipse 80 yards receiving or score his first TD, what better place to do both of those things than in another country?
Flowers and the Baltimore Ravens will be taking on the Tennessee Titans in London to kick off the Sunday slate, and while the Tennessee front seven is a force to be reckoned with, the secondary has been vulnerable and prone to big plays from opposing pass catchers.
Looking to atone for last week’s drop-fest (Flowers wasn’t the only one), Flowers is due for his biggest game yet against a team allowing the 8th-most fantasy points to wide receivers.
One more nugget: Flowers has an ownership percentage of 29.2%, which at the time of this writing, is the third-highest ownership percentage among all wide receivers in Week 6. It seems others are starting to catch on, so don’t be the one that misses the bus!
TE: Logan Thomas, Washington Commanders ($5,400, TE11 at cost)
Game: Commanders at Falcons, 1 p.m. ET Sunday
Sitting at TE11 in standard PPR scoring leagues, Thomas’ price tag seems in line with other TEs, but this week he’s an absolute bargain given the opponent. Atlanta’s cornerbacks can match up against Terry McLaurin, Curtis Samuel and Jahan Dotson, but the Falcons have allowed the second-most fantasy points to TEs.
Fresh off his best performance of the season to date (11 targets, 9 receptions, 77 receiving yards and a TD), the arrow is pointing up for Thomas.
FLEX: Rashee Rice, Kansas City Chiefs ($5,600, WR52 at cost)
Game: Broncos at Chiefs, 8:20 p.m. ET Thursday
Sitting at WR50 on the season (in standard PPR scoring formats), Rice’s WR52 cost sounds about right at first glance. However, the Broncos rank 17th (NFL Fantasy) in most points allowed to opposing wide receivers. I’d also be remiss not to mention the presence of one of the very best cornerbacks in the NFL in Pat Surtain, as well as perpetually underrated safety Justin Simmons.
However, as -11-point favorites at home on a short week against a struggling Broncos team that could be looking to tear everything down if the losses keep mounting, the time might be ripe for the Chiefs to have a vintage offensive explosion (they’ve only scored more than 30 once this season).
Having received five or more targets in four of five games, Rice has a consistent role in the Chiefs’ passing attack and will only continue to emerge up the pecking order in his rookie season.
If ‘TNF’ ends up being a blowout, I expect Rice to put up his highest snap share of the season, which also hopefully coincides with his best fantasy performance.
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