An optimizer is a powerful tool for DFS, capable of bulk operations in an instant that would otherwise take hours of manipulation to perform manually. But we must first learn how to wield an optimizer to realize its true power.
That’s what we try to do in this weekly series. We’ll focus on Sportstopia’s Contrarian Edge Optimizer for every Monday Night Football game this season to explore the tool itself, maximize expected value through optimal utilization, and provide a sneak peek into the industry’s newest and most dynamic optimizer.
MNF: San Francisco 49ers at Minnesota Vikings
First Run
Running the Contrarian Edge Optimizer without altering any inputs returns a roster consisting of Alexander Mattison at captain, Brock Purdy, Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle, T.J. Hockenson, and Brandon Powell. While I agree this returns the best combination of median projections, there are additional things we need to be thinking through when taking team tendencies, injuries, and game environment into account.
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MNF Theory
First off, Deebo Samuel is set to miss the next two games, at minimum, for the 49ers with a fracture in his shoulder. That takes an already concentrated San Francisco offense and turns it into a hyper-concentrated offense. Christian McCaffrey, Aiyuk, and Kittle should be at the top of our list on this showdown slate. That said, team tendencies could narrow that down further for us.
Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores has blitzed 22 percent more than any other team. Offensive tackle Trent Williams, one of the top tackles in the game, is listed as doubtful. When you combine those two truths, we’re left with a matchup against the most blitz-heavy defense in the league without one of the top pass protectors in the league for the 49ers.
Taking previous coaching tendencies into account, we should expect TE Kittle to play heavier rates in-line. That does not mean that he won’t run routes, but I would expect Kittle to be in to block at a higher rate than we’ve seen to this point in the season. Kittle’s 89.6 percent route participation rate could take a substantial hit in this spot.
That should place increased emphasis on Aiyuk through the air in addition to a high expected workload for McCaffrey. But it should also open up some secondary players for potential fantasy goodness, primarily Ray-Ray McCloud, who filled in directly for Samuel once the latter left the team’s Week 6 contest. That’s important as it wasn’t the more straight-up Jauan Jennings that saw an increase to his snap rate and route participation.
As for the Vikings, who will be without alpha wide receiver Justin Jefferson, things get a bit more interesting. Mattison projects well due to his hefty workload in this offense, but the 49ers force one of the highest pass rates against due to their suffocating run defense. That means K.J. Osborn, Jordan Addison, Powell, and Hockenson get a slight boost to expectations in this matchup.
Practical Application
Simply applying a 10 percent boost to the projections of Aiyuk, McCaffrey, McCloud, and the Vikings pass-catchers and applying a 10 percent decrease to Kittle, Mattison, and Jauan Jennings will force the optimizer to emphasize these theoretical findings. The biggest problem with only manipulating the skill position players is that it could preclude the optimizer from including defenses and kickers at a comparable rate as would otherwise be considered without manipulating projections.
To combat this, I recommend running the optimizer without manipulating the projections of those two positions for one-third of your entries, saving one-third for the base run and one-third for entries where you manipulate the defenses and kicker projections. This will give you the best mix of theory, its application, and variance management for a highly variant one-game sample.
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